Tyre wear will also affect the speedo reading slightly.
Brand new tyres will read closer to the actual speed and as they wear the reported speed will creep faster. The difference in diameter is only about 10-15mm from brand new to MOT Failure (assuming about 7mm tread depth when new).
The 185/55R16 tyre on the Mk4 is 610mm diameter when new, dropping to about 595mm when worn down beyond the markers.
Circumference is (pi × d). However when comparing circumferences as a ratio, the factor of pi cancels out, so it's as simple as (15/610) ≈ 2.5%
Most of us will change our tyres long before that point, so the effect on reported speed is going to be less than 1.5%, or about 1 mph at 70mph.