Author Topic: New South African variant.  (Read 48406 times)

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #135 on: December 09, 2021, 04:30:32 PM »
The accountant chappies at Pfizer are telling us that previous / present vaccines do not work against Omicron ...

Wherever did you get that scaremongering from? Last news i saw about Pfizer was trumpeting that their vaccine was actually pretty good against omicron, for example:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biontech-pfizer-say-test-shows-3-doses-vaccine-neutralise-omicron-2021-12-08/

No less than The Times...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/omicron-variant-will-vaccines-and-boosters-still-work-wnxp99tzm

The Pfizer / Moderna model is to keep offering boosters... they are planning another booster for a variant that from all the evidence so far does not need one.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/omicron-scare-pfizer-says-third-dose-key-to-fight-spread-2643408

Fizzer call them boosters because of the effect they have on their profits.....

Quote from a article in a financial publication

Frank D’Amelio, Pfizer’s CFO, has claimed that once the pandemic shifts into an “endemic” state — essentially, when most places are vaccinated, restricting COVID-19 cases to certain pockets of the world — it will create an opportunity for Pfizer to increase the pricing of its vaccine. This will likely make it harder for low-resource communities to get vaccinated.





« Last Edit: December 09, 2021, 04:50:07 PM by culzean »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #136 on: December 09, 2021, 04:36:34 PM »

UK has greater percentage vaccinated than S Africa therefore less of the population susceptible to infection.


The accountant chappies at Pfizer are telling us that previous / present vaccines do not work against Omicron and that governments need to buy even more of their overpriced stuff.  Those Pfizer bean counters would love to see everyone getting a jab every 2 weeks.   If there are less people vaccinated in SA ( about 26% have been jabbed )  then it is even more re-assuring that no deaths reported from Omicron yet after over 4 weeks.
They are not saying they do not work.
They are saying protection, even from two vaccinations is less for Omicron than for previous variants.
(Many cases have had two vaccinations.)
That's what the guys from Sage are saying too.

7.  "It is highly likely that Omicron can escape immunity to some extent, but it is not yet clear
how much. The evidence comes from the number of reinfections already seen, and from
the presence in the Omicron genome of a combination of mutations that are either
already known to be associated with immune escape or which are found in areas that
structural studies suggest will affect antibody binding. "

8. There is likely to be a greater reduction in protection conferred by previous infections or
vaccines against infection than against severe disease (high confidence). It is not yet
known whether the extent to which protection from natural infection, vaccination, or a
combination of both may be affected, nor how this might vary by the type of vaccine
used or the variant someone has previously been infected with.

 10. Booster vaccinations have been shown to produce very strong antibody responses (high
confidence) and are likely to provide protection against severe disease, hospitalisation
and death from most variants at least in the short term, with protection against severe
disease remaining higher than protection against infection. Increasing coverage of
booster vaccinations (as well as increasing coverage of primary courses) is therefore an
important defence. Other vaccine strategies, such as updated vaccines, may also need
to be considered depending on the degree of immune escape. Companies are already
pursuing both multivalent vaccines and Omicron specific vaccines.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-97-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-29-november-2021 (pdf)

Summary. Get your booster

Edit I have added the bit I can read from your Times article (paywall)

"The head of the drug maker Moderna has warned that the existing Covid-19 vaccines are unlikely to be as effective against the Omicron variant as they were against previous variants. "

The operative word is "as" (the first one which I have underlined.)

« Last Edit: December 09, 2021, 05:14:17 PM by JimSh »

ColinB

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #137 on: December 09, 2021, 04:49:21 PM »
The accountant chappies at Pfizer are telling us that previous / present vaccines do not work against Omicron ...

Wherever did you get that scaremongering from? Last news i saw about Pfizer was trumpeting that their vaccine was actually pretty good against omicron, for example:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biontech-pfizer-say-test-shows-3-doses-vaccine-neutralise-omicron-2021-12-08/

No less than The Times...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/omicron-variant-will-vaccines-and-boosters-still-work-wnxp99tzm

The Pfizer / Moderna model is to keep offering boosters... they are planning another booster for a variant that from all the evidence so far does not need one.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/omicron-scare-pfizer-says-third-dose-key-to-fight-spread-2643408

Your comment specifically refers to Pfizer being ineffective. The Times article (the short snippet I can see) actually says that Pfizer are confident their vaccine will be effective. The  comments about Moderna are theoretical, the Pfizer comments based on tests. It's actually too soon to be certain either way, but I don't see anything supporting any scaremongering about vaccines being ineffective.

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #138 on: December 09, 2021, 07:41:18 PM »
This is interesting,  gene sequence from common cold coronavirus has been found in Omicron variant, this goes a long way to explain the increased transmission but much milder symptoms of Omicron.  The sheer speed at which Omicron took over from Delta in SA is surprising and very hopeful, not alongside Delta but replacing it..... Most patients 'with covid' were admitted to hospital for something else unconnected with Covid - but are still classed as 'covid patients'  because they had a positive result in the covid test that is given to everyone admitted to hospital in SA. 


Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

Jocko

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #139 on: December 09, 2021, 07:50:04 PM »
They also say it could have mutated with parts of the HIV virus, HIV being rife in southern Africa. I have also read a theory that it may have transferred to an animal, mutated and moved back to humans. Perhaps one day they will find out.

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #140 on: December 09, 2021, 08:46:34 PM »
Professor Peter Openshaw of Imperial College London who’s also Vice Chair of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group on Omicron variant Channel 4 this evening.

https://www.channel4.com/news/covid-150-deaths-a-day-in-uk-an-unacceptably-high-number-says-professor

Is Plan B stringent enough or should Christmas parties be cancelled?

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/cancel-your-christmas-party-health-boss-urges-amid-rising-omicron-cases/vi-AARF1rH?ocid=msedgntp

« Last Edit: December 09, 2021, 09:06:52 PM by JimSh »

nowster

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #141 on: December 09, 2021, 10:29:33 PM »
Is Plan B stringent enough or should Christmas parties be cancelled?

How about the ones in November and December 2020 in SW1A postcode district?  ;D

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #142 on: December 10, 2021, 08:49:08 AM »
Is Plan B stringent enough or should Christmas parties be cancelled?

How about the ones in November and December 2020 in SW1A postcode district?  ;D
Parties? What Parties?? ;) ;) ;)

"Sajid Javid and Mike Ellis both claim nothing untoward happened at events that did not take place"

"Ellis gave a solemn undertaking that Simon Case definitely hadn’t been at the three “gatherings” he was currently investigating, as they hadn’t taken place, but couldn’t offer guarantees about any other “gatherings” that hadn’t happened. Magical thinking for a magical realist."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/09/gathering-storm-ministers-party-pieces-fail-to-convince

You would need Dr. Emmett Brown's DeLorean to cancel those but they are not going to inspire sensible behaviour in the population this year.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2021, 09:37:56 AM by JimSh »

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #143 on: December 10, 2021, 11:57:38 AM »

Is Plan B stringent enough or should Christmas parties be cancelled?

Plan C under consideration.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/plan-c-pubs-care-homes-omicron-b1973452.html

Perhaps if Johnson had listened to Sturgeon and Drakeford 3 weeks ago he would only have needed a U turn rather than a hand brake turn?

Edit Just been listening to Nicola Sturgeon's latest Covid Briefing.
Can't yet find it on iPlayer but it's sobering stuff. Well worth a look if you can find it.
4 minutes worth and a summary here.
https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-issues-22423151

Update Here is the Covid Update
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-59607055
« Last Edit: December 10, 2021, 03:29:01 PM by JimSh »

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #144 on: December 10, 2021, 03:15:22 PM »
Oh Dear.


No plans to introduce further Covid measures, Downing Street says

The government has denied that it is planning to introduce further Covid restrictions in England.

A spokesman for the Prime Minister said: “We have introduced measures which are appropriate and have no plans to go beyond that.”

However, he said that the government “will act if necessary”, adding that there is “an array of options available to us”.

London Evening Standard Live updates at 14.43
Compare and contrast
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-uk-news-latest-face-masks-indoor-boris-johnson-christmas-parties-plan-b-omicron-b971109.html
and
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-uk-news-latest-face-masks-indoor-boris-johnson-christmas-parties-plan-b-omicron-b971109.html?itm_source=Internal&itm_channel=homepage_trending_article_component&itm_campaign=trending_section&itm_content=3#post-349377

Too busy trying/lying to save his own skin.



madasafish

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #145 on: December 10, 2021, 03:46:47 PM »
So far, the evidence I have read suggests Omicron = bad cold in S Africa, (unvaxxed).

No-one has published any study on UK cases - as far as I know.

Personally I would suggest there will be lots of cases but the majority may be very mild. But not sure.
Ms Sturgeon appears very certain without any evidence,

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #146 on: December 10, 2021, 04:18:00 PM »
So far, the evidence I have read suggests Omicron = bad cold in S Africa, (unvaxxed).

No-one has published any study on UK cases - as far as I know.

Personally I would suggest there will be lots of cases but the majority may be very mild. But not sure.
Ms Sturgeon appears very certain without any evidence,
The severity is not known
Even if the majority are very mild there is very likely going to be enough cases requiring to be hospitalised to put great strain on the NHS.
A small percentage of a very large number still amounts to a large number.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/09/the-uk-braces-for-1-million-omicron-cases-as-covid-variant-spreads.html

I'm sure Ms Sturgeon will be furnished with more information than reaches the media.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/omicron-may-be-infecting-4000-britons-a-day/ar-AARGpFg?ocid=uxbndlbing

Yet the UK government continues to argue about when is a party not a party and who paid for Johnson's wallpaper.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2021, 04:37:43 PM by JimSh »

madasafish

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #147 on: December 10, 2021, 06:09:20 PM »
I ran the numbers assuming Omicron kept growing till end January 2022, then plateaued until March.

IF -and this is very much a worse case - if the hospitalisations and deaths were the same as Delta, the NHS would be basically overwhelmed end January and the deaths by March  would nearly exceed the total deaths to date from Covid.

No wonder she's worried. (Because her scientists will have come up with something very similar. It is hardly rocket science to do simple forecasts.)
BUT I consider that a 25% probability. Far more likely - and I speak as an uneducated layman as far as pandemics - is that Omicron will be less than 50% as fatal as Delta  or even 10% or smaller..
(I hope so.)

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #148 on: December 10, 2021, 08:21:25 PM »
There are so many interacting factors involved that it is impossible to make accurate predictions.
The best the scientists can do is model a range of possibilities based on assumptions many of which are unpredictable like human behaviour.
The media don't help by latching on to the extremes.
This makes it easy for the deniers to claim that the scientists' predictions are always wrong.
Let's hope that the factors combine to give the most  favourable results.

The situation is probably very similar in the rest of the UK, although perhaps a superspreader event (such as the Steps concert might have put Scotland slightly ahead) and a superspreader event can make a great difference where exponential growth is involved.
There will be many potential superspreader events during the festive season.

https://www.channel4.com/news/two-covid-jabs-may-not-be-enough-says-scotlands-national-clinical-director
« Last Edit: December 10, 2021, 08:35:48 PM by JimSh »

madasafish

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #149 on: December 10, 2021, 08:25:27 PM »
There are so many interacting factors involved that it is impossible to make accurate predictions.
The best the scientists can do is model a range of possibilities based on assumptions many of which are unpredictable like human behaviour.
The media don't help by latching on to the extremes.
This makes it easy for the deniers to claim that the scientists' predictions are always wrong.
Let's hope that the factors combine to give the most  favourable results.

Most of the deniers appear incapable of simple logical thought, are innumerate and without any scientific training. They would be laughed at in a legal situation. Give them a case to argue and they descend to ad hominem remarks .

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