Nissan plan for "hard" Brexit

[Jocko]

A report in today's Financial Times says that in the event a trade deal leads to tariffs on cars then they plan to pull out of mainland Europe and concentrate production in Sunderland, intending to undercut European car prices and take a larger share of the UK market. They reckon they could take up to 20% of the UK new car market in future years.

I posted a link, but it requires a subscription. I Googled "Nissan Financial Times" which gave me access to the full story.

[culzean]

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/109569/nissan-pull-out-europe-and-concentrate-uk-event-hard

[ColinB]

Why is everyone focussing on the headline, and skipping lightly over the bit that says:

"A spokesman for Nissan Europe said: "We deny such a contingency plan exists.
We’ve modelled every possible ramification of Brexit and the fact remains that our entire business both in the UK and in Europe is not sustainable in the event of WTO tariffs."

In other words, the story appears to be just that, a story. Confirmation bias ?

[culzean]

"We deny such a contingency plan exists.

'They would say that wouldn't they'

Those famous words were spoken by Mandy Rice-Davis

https://edzardernst.com/2013/02/they-would-say-that-wouldnt-they/

[sparky Paul]

So Nissan are going to turn their backs on a market of 500 million, to focus on a market of 65 million. Okay.

The article talks about shutting Nissan's facility in France, only they don't have a plant in France. All Micras are built in Renault's factory in Flins-sur-Seine, where they also build the closely related Renault Clio, and Renault Zoe. They export these Micras worldwide, because the EU has FTAs with all of the Micra's main markets, including Japan. The UK has no such FTAs, and the fantasy that Nissan would concentrate worldwide production in the UK without them is ludicrous.

The problem with an article like this being behind the paywall is that most people cannot see the denial by Nissan. As Colin says, this is the only truth -

"A spokesman for Nissan Europe said: "We deny such a contingency plan exists.
We’ve modelled every possible ramification of Brexit and the fact remains that our entire business both in the UK and in Europe is not sustainable in the event of WTO tariffs."

[Jocko]

Laura Hughes, the Political Correspondent of the Financial Times, was on today's Politics Live. She said that Nissan's official line was to deny it, but she knew the two sources and believed the story was indeed fact. Believe what you will. It will all play out in the end.

[sparky Paul]

Laura Hughes, the Political Correspondent of the Financial Times, was on today's Politics Live. She said that Nissan's official line was to deny it, but she knew the two sources and believed the story was indeed fact. Believe what you will. It will all play out in the end.

As the story originated from the FT in the first place, that's hardly any surprise.

I can see the Barcelona factory closing regardless, as spare capacity could be freed up by the demise of the Renault-PSA-Opel-Fiat van partnership. As for the rest of it, it sounds very unlikely to me.

[JimSh]

Why is everyone focussing on the headline, and skipping lightly over the bit that says:

"A spokesman for Nissan Europe said: "We deny such a contingency plan exists.
We’ve modelled every possible ramification of Brexit and the fact remains that our entire business both in the UK and in Europe is not sustainable in the event of WTO tariffs."

In other words, the story appears to be just that, a story. Confirmation bias ?

The i uses the same story but draws the same emphasis as you do.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/brexit/nissan-brexit-cars-uk-eu-trade-deal-tariffs-sunderland-1384013

As Sparky Paul points out a market of 500 million appears a lot more attractive than one of 65 million.

A more likely scenario IMHO would be that they would withdraw all manufacturing from UK and EU and ship finished cars to Europe.


"“We’ve modelled every possible ramification of Brexit and the fact remains that our entire business both in the UK and in Europe is not sustainable in the event of WTO [World Trade Organisation] tariffs,” they said."

[JimSh]

A more likely scenario IMHO would be that they would withdraw all manufacturing from UK and EU and ship finished cars to Europe.

Or ----- If they think there would a big enough market in the UK, keep Sunderland for UK. and another plant in mainland Europe.
At the moment the only EVs I see are Leafs and Teslas, but that might be because they are the only two I recognise.

[Jocko]

The Kia Nero and Hyundai Kona are popular but they look like the non-EV apart from the lack of grille. Difficult to spot. Many of the other EVs just look like their ICE counterpart (Golf, Astra, Mini).

[sparky Paul]

The other problem for Sunderland is that 60% of parts are sourced from the EU, not surprising given the shared Nissan-Renault-Dacia platforms. The parts are going to face the same tariff issues, if they do come to pass.

Don't see many Leafs around here, certainly more Teslas, a few BMW i3s and the odd Zoe. Not much else yet.

[JimSh]

The Kia Nero and Hyundai Kona are popular but they look like the non-EV apart from the lack of grille. Difficult to spot. Many of the other EVs just look like their ICE counterpart (Golf, Astra, Mini).

You're more tuned in to EVs than I am.

I was looking for a set of figures for sales of BEVs in UK by manufacturers  and couldn't find one. Thought this was of interest but might be getting off topic.

http://www.ev-volumes.com/

[Jocko]

I found out that the Tesla Model 3 is the best seller with the Leaf next but cannot find any information for further down the list.

[sparky Paul]

I saw a Tesla X this morning. They all seem to be white, I haven't seen any other colour!

[MartinJG]

No smoke without fire. Nissan are not happy with Renault. Never have been. Ghosn is the 'gaijin' fall guy for mucho red faces among the Nippon management. Either way, they have to reorganise, come what may.