Author Topic: Electric cars  (Read 35678 times)

ColinB

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #870 on: March 19, 2018, 01:57:52 PM »
Furthermore, I don't think the cars per pump argument is really valid. My usual place to refill is a smallish Morrison's petrol station on a plot remote to the store, because it's convenient for me. There are 8 pumps in total, 4 of which are 'pay at pump'. If the site was levelled and replaced with a parking arrangement similar to a supermarket car park, each with it's own charging point and payment device, I would think you could fit in 20 spaces.
Let's look at that. 8 pumps at a filling station, let's say 5 minutes to fill up, that's 96 fill-ups per hour giving each car a range of (say) 300-400 miles. Replace that with 20 charging points, let's say 15 minutes per car, that's 80 "fill-ups" per hour: that's 17% poorer throughput. Moreover, range per fill-up is going to be less (depending on which crystal ball you're looking in) so cars will have to return more frequently. That will drive demand for more capacity, not less as will result from this plan: 'nuff said.

The other thing to bear in mind is that few people can currently refill their cars with petrol at home, so the demand for charging points should, in theory, be less with EVs - and significantly less outside of city areas. I certainly wouldn't need to use a public recharging point for daily use, it's very rare indeed that I travel further than the range covered by the newest generation of EVs... in fact a first generation Leaf would probably be fine for 90+% of my motoring miles.
My point is not about those people fortunate enough to have off-road parking and able to install their own charging points. I'm referring to the (roughly) 1/3 of the motoring population who live in urban areas, in terraced houses, flats, or other accommodation without dedicated parking. If these folks are to be converted to EVs, they need access to convenient charging facilities and there is simply no plan for that at present.

Like you, I could probably get by with a Leaf, but I couldn't contemplate one because I have nowhere to charge it, plus I really don't like the idea of it not necessarily being "ready to go" when I need it without first having queued at a charge point for X hours. That's a bit of a bummer when the school's just closed because of the weather, or elderly parent has just been admitted to hospital, or any other scenario in which Joe Public currently has instant transport but may not in future.

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #871 on: March 19, 2018, 02:35:50 PM »
Let's look at that. 8 pumps at a filling station, let's say 5 minutes to fill up, that's 96 fill-ups per hour giving each car a range of (say) 300-400 miles. Replace that with 20 charging points, let's say 15 minutes per car, that's 80 "fill-ups" per hour: that's 17% poorer throughput. Moreover, range per fill-up is going to be less (depending on which crystal ball you're looking in) so cars will have to return more frequently. That will drive demand for more capacity, not less as will result from this plan: 'nuff said.

My point is not about those people fortunate enough to have off-road parking and able to install their own charging points. I'm referring to the (roughly) 1/3 of the motoring population who live in urban areas, in terraced houses, flats, or other accommodation without dedicated parking. If these folks are to be converted to EVs, they need access to convenient charging facilities and there is simply no plan for that at present.

Like you, I could probably get by with a Leaf, but I couldn't contemplate one because I have nowhere to charge it, plus I really don't like the idea of it not necessarily being "ready to go" when I need it without first having queued at a charge point for X hours. That's a bit of a bummer when the school's just closed because of the weather, or elderly parent has just been admitted to hospital, or any other scenario in which Joe Public currently has instant transport but may not in future.

20 chargers of 350Kw charging 80cars and hour is also 28MWh of power required (or 7MW of instantaneous power, sustainable  for 15 minutes).    The 'trickle charge a 1MWh battery from the local power and it reduces demand' only works when charging points are not frequently used,  the 1MWh battery often quoted would be flat in 2  minutes if all chargers in use, then you would have to reduce charging to the trickle that the local power cables could provide. 

There is mooted a system to use BEV batteries as mass storage for the grid, you tell them when you need the car and they take power from your battery to top up the grid,  and hopefully put it back before you are 'scheduled' to need the car, would be a PITA if you needed an 'unscheduled' use of the car.   A bit like 'we are going to drain the fuel tank of your ICE vehicle to borrow the power,  but don't worry we will put the fuel back in before you are 'scheduled' to use it again' - we have had more than a few power cuts in our area recently, just have to hope power is on long enough to put a few miles in the battery.

As you say, people are not addressing the convenience aspect of BEV hardly at all,  the cult people of the 'brave new BEV world' are putting up with all sorts of inconvenience and hoops to run their cars, some will admit it,  but most will not. 

« Last Edit: March 19, 2018, 02:46:50 PM by culzean »
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peteo48

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #872 on: March 19, 2018, 03:35:14 PM »
I could get by with a 24 kwh Nissan Leaf most of the time. I could even get by with a long distance holiday in the UK by hiring an ICE car but it's those other issues.

1) I have off road parking but the current configuration of the property entails a trip hazard.
2) I will not compromise on comfort. The heating must be on and air con when required.
3) I am not a fast driver these days but I would not want to crawl along the motorway at 50 mph.
4) I do, about 5 times a year, journeys of over 100 miles into "charge deserts" - and there are many such deserts. Check out much of Yorkshire, most of Wales and nearly all of the Peak District.

If I had 2 cars, I'd have a Leaf. If I have only an EV it needs to be in the "no compromise" 200 mile range for me AND they need to be much much cheaper. We need an EV for Ford Fiesta money with 200 genuine mile range for mass adoption to ensue. When/if we get there, the tipping point will have arrived but I don't see much sign of it yet.

peteo48

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #873 on: March 19, 2018, 03:44:10 PM »
Just following on from the Ford Fiesta money argument I was making above. The new Leaf is a pretty capable car and very well equipped. Loads of tech including Pro Pilot.

Why don't Nissan put a battery in the Micra and flog it for, say, 16,000? Cut back on some of the tech.

I may be being cynical here but are manufacturers trying to keep EVs in a niche? If you check out some of the stories behind people trying to get hold of the VW "E" Golf, you'll find that you get little encouragement from the dealer network and very low production numbers to keep supply scarce.

I suspect the industry doesn't want mass adoption yet.

Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #874 on: March 19, 2018, 04:02:42 PM »
I suspect the industry doesn't want mass adoption yet.
The car industry certainly does not want mass adoption yet. They want to phase it in as older models are phased out. As we have discussed elsewhere on this thread, electrification of an existing model is not a great way to go. The car makers want to start from scratch with their EVs, as Nissan did with the Leaf. I bet when the replacement for the Micra comes out, it is an EV first and foremost.
Regarding the charging network, it is in its infancy at the moment. When they start building charging stations, with 20 350 kW bays, they will be connected to the grid by suitable cabling to satisfy their need. It may be that they will have underground storage for 50 of the 1 MW battery packs. New supermarkets may install battery packs under their car parks, with charging points that cover every bay. They may install PV arrays in their roofs, to supplement the supply. As the say, "Necessity is the mother of invention".

madasafish

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #875 on: March 19, 2018, 04:30:52 PM »
Let's look at that. 8 pumps at a filling station, let's say 5 minutes to fill up, that's 96 fill-ups per hour giving each car a range of (say) 300-400 miles. Replace that with 20 charging points, let's say 15 minutes per car, that's 80 "fill-ups" per hour: that's 17% poorer throughput. Moreover, range per fill-up is going to be less (depending on which crystal ball you're looking in) so cars will have to return more frequently. That will drive demand for more capacity, not less as will result from this plan: 'nuff said.

My point is not about those people fortunate enough to have off-road parking and able to install their own charging points. I'm referring to the (roughly) 1/3 of the motoring population who live in urban areas, in terraced houses, flats, or other accommodation without dedicated parking. If these folks are to be converted to EVs, they need access to convenient charging facilities and there is simply no plan for that at present.

Like you, I could probably get by with a Leaf, but I couldn't contemplate one because I have nowhere to charge it, plus I really don't like the idea of it not necessarily being "ready to go" when I need it without first having queued at a charge point for X hours. That's a bit of a bummer when the school's just closed because of the weather, or elderly parent has just been admitted to hospital, or any other scenario in which Joe Public currently has instant transport but may not in future.

20 chargers of 350Kw charging 80cars and hour is also 28MWh of power required (or 7MW of instantaneous power, sustainable  for 15 minutes).    The 'trickle charge a 1MWh battery from the local power and it reduces demand' only works when charging points are not frequently used,  the 1MWh battery often quoted would be flat in 2  minutes if all chargers in use, then you would have to reduce charging to the trickle that the local power cables could provide. 

There is mooted a system to use BEV batteries as mass storage for the grid, you tell them when you need the car and they take power from your battery to top up the grid,  and hopefully put it back before you are 'scheduled' to need the car, would be a PITA if you needed an 'unscheduled' use of the car.   A bit like 'we are going to drain the fuel tank of your ICE vehicle to borrow the power,  but don't worry we will put the fuel back in before you are 'scheduled' to use it again' - we have had more than a few power cuts in our area recently, just have to hope power is on long enough to put a few miles in the battery.

As you say, people are not addressing the convenience aspect of BEV hardly at all,  the cult people of the 'brave new BEV world' are putting up with all sorts of inconvenience and hoops to run their cars, some will admit it,  but most will not.

That system of using EVs as a storage network for the grid will never work unless:
1. there is an incentive for the owners to connect up their car when they get home, tell it when they need it next and suffer potential car outage.

Hassle without return will lead to saying " we need the car everyday "...

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #876 on: March 19, 2018, 04:40:52 PM »
I suspect the industry doesn't want mass adoption yet.
The car industry certainly does not want mass adoption yet. They want to phase it in as older models are phased out. As we have discussed elsewhere on this thread, electrification of an existing model is not a great way to go. The car makers want to start from scratch with their EVs, as Nissan did with the Leaf. I bet when the replacement for the Micra comes out, it is an EV first and foremost.
Regarding the charging network, it is in its infancy at the moment. When they start building charging stations, with 20 350 kW bays, they will be connected to the grid by suitable cabling to satisfy their need. It may be that they will have underground storage for 50 of the 1 MW battery packs. New supermarkets may install battery packs under their car parks, with charging points that cover every bay. They may install PV arrays in their roofs, to supplement the supply. As the say, "Necessity is the mother of invention".

We are talking a lot of capital investment there with 50 x 1MWh batteries and charge points,  plus the cabling to get grid power to the site, who is going to pay for it ?  Even with a cost of Li-Ion batteries of 100 KWh (which is not available yet)  it is still 5 million for batteries alone.  Will people still expect to get power for the same price they get it from their meter at home ?  People are not going to be happy when the cost of charging their car approaches the cost of filling an ICE car with fuel. 
« Last Edit: March 19, 2018, 04:49:20 PM by culzean »
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Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #877 on: March 19, 2018, 04:47:08 PM »
That system of using EVs as a storage network for the grid will never work unless:
1. there is an incentive for the owners to connect up their car when they get home, tell it when they need it next and suffer potential car outage.

Hassle without return will lead to saying " we need the car everyday "...
The idea of this seems to be that you come home from work, allow the grid to use what energy you have left in the car, getting paid peak evening rates, then at night you recharge it at the low rate.
Or what you do is run your own home on the energy you have stored in the car and recharge overnight. Either way it takes some of the peak load of the grid's generating capacity. Either way you need manage the charge to leave you enough for emergencies.

Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #878 on: March 19, 2018, 04:54:09 PM »
We are talking a lot of capital investment there with 50 x 1MW batteries and charge points,  plus the cabling to get grid power to the site, who is going to pay for it ?  Will people still expect to get power for the same price they get it from their meter at home ?  People are not going to be happy when the cost of charging their car approaches the cost of filling an ICE car with fuel.
Huge investment will be required, just as huge investment is currently required for a large supermarket filling station. Those who stand to gain from it will pay for it. Private equity funds, big business, Russian Mafia, anyone who is looking to invest money for a good return. I would be happy to pay 80% of the cost of petrol to charge my car at work, supermarket, or multi storey car park. People drive miles to save 2 or 3 pence per litre!

sparky Paul

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #879 on: March 19, 2018, 06:58:53 PM »
Let's look at that. 8 pumps at a filling station, let's say 5 minutes to fill up, that's 96 fill-ups per hour giving each car a range of (say) 300-400 miles. Replace that with 20 charging points, let's say 15 minutes per car, that's 80 "fill-ups" per hour: that's 17% poorer throughput.

That, and many of the other arguments against EVs, completely ignore my point earlier that the technology and infrastructure are both in their infancy, and that further progress will be required. I did say that -

I think everyone appreciates that 15-20 minute charging is not going to replace petrol/diesel refuelling, but that's where we are now. My point is that looking at the progress that has been made in this area, we are not so far away from the charging times required.


My point is not about those people fortunate enough to have off-road parking and able to install their own charging points. I'm referring to the (roughly) 1/3 of the motoring population who live in urban areas, in terraced houses, flats, or other accommodation without dedicated parking.

If 1/3 of the motoring population had nowhere to fit a home charging point, then the other 2/3 could feasibly fit one. If half of these people didn't need to use the public charging points, then even your 17% reduction in throughput could be easily accommodated.

Of course all these figures are hypothetical back-of-a-fag-packet calculations, but all I am saying is that advances will make things possible which are not today. It will remain a niche market for years yet, but EVs are coming, make no mistake.

ColinB

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #880 on: March 19, 2018, 07:57:35 PM »
... the technology and infrastructure are both in their infancy, and that further progress will be required...
... I am saying ... that advances will make things possible which are not today....
Amen to that, and I don't disagree. The problem for me is that I can see the various incremental improvements that are currently anticipated, but (in my personal view) those aren't enough. What I can't see are realistic and practical routes towards the quantum changes that will have to happen in the engineering, the infrastructure, and the culture  in order to allow EVs to approach the convenience and user-friendliness of today's ICE cars. Those developments may appear on Powerpoint slides but the reality is somewhat different. We're in "And then a miracle happened" territory. Until we can see how to achieve those things, and the investment happens in order to implement whatever the solutions turn out to be, EVs are simply not attractive or practical enough for a very large fraction of the motoring public. Which is a real shame.

peteo48

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #881 on: March 19, 2018, 08:19:06 PM »

Amen to that, and I don't disagree. The problem for me is that I can see the various incremental improvements that are currently anticipated, but (in my personal view) those aren't enough. What I can't see are realistic and practical routes towards the quantum changes that will have to happen in the engineering, the infrastructure, and the culture  in order to allow EVs to approach the convenience and user-friendliness of today's ICE cars.

I flip flopped like mad before my recent car purchase (another Jazz). That bit of what Colin says above nails it for me. There isn't a quantum leap in any area as far as I can see. The new Leaf is an incremental change (good though it is) but it's not a long distance business car yet. The charging network looks impressive if you collapse the maps on zap-map but zoom in and the vast areas of the country with literally no infrastructure at all comes into view. The amount of work to fill these charge deserts is immense and you have to sympathise with potential investors who will want to see many more EVs on the road before they put in charging stations in, say, the middle of the Peak District or Lincolnshire or Wales.

In fact only a major shove from government will do the job. In very simple terms there need to be as many rapid, not fast, but rapid chargers as there are petrol pumps.

It's why the 2040 date is about right. It's going to take a long time. I reckon the tipping point may be 10 years away yet.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2018, 08:21:57 PM by peteo48 »

sparky Paul

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #882 on: March 19, 2018, 08:47:14 PM »
I agree with the sentiments above.

I said earlier, EVs are coming...

...but there are many years of life left in the combustion engine car market yet, and probably more developments to come in hybrid technology too. I thought that hydrogen fuel cells might have made more of an impression, with hydrogen being used as a medium to store surplus electricity, but it seems infrastructure is going the way of pure EV.

peteo48

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #883 on: March 21, 2018, 10:22:38 PM »
Ooops!


Jonathan Porterfield is an EV evangelist. Looks like Nissan have screwed up big time with the new Leaf as the charge rate slows right down after the first charge. Indeed, on a long journey you might even be better with an old Leaf.


culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #884 on: March 27, 2018, 03:01:47 PM »

Well Jocko absent so someone has to post stuff from fully charged......

Here is a video of the most useless electric bike you will ever see, call it 'son of Sinclair C5' - too slow to go on proper roads (would be a moving roadblock, worse even than a normal cyclist because it is wider),  too wide to cut through traffic like a proper e-bike,  sitting down pedalling so as battery runs out you cannot even stand on the pedals,  you have to find a parking space rather than just chain it to something,  can't take it on a train or ferry.

What were the designers thinking about ?
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