Author Topic: New South African variant.  (Read 45580 times)

ColinB

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #315 on: December 24, 2021, 08:39:16 AM »
But a large proportion of the vaccinated carry the virus without symptoms,  not just the unvaxxed.

Well yes, I don't think anyone would argue with that. But the preceding discussion has been about asymptomatic people entering hospital. Why introduce the vaxxed vs unvaxxed argument, it's not relevant here because both could be asymptomatic.

And that's exactly why we are all, irrespective of vaccine status, urged to keep doing LFTs.

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #316 on: December 24, 2021, 09:20:47 AM »
Quote of the day  'The frightened ones are especially angry at the unfrightened ones'...

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #317 on: December 24, 2021, 12:29:27 PM »

Even the dyed in the wool doom-mongers on SAGE committee have grudgingly admitted that 'Omicron may be milder than we thought' - they took no notice of the data from South Africa until it was so obvious to be embarrassing.  Throughout the pingdemic SAGE models proved to be about as accurate as a 6 month advanced weather forecast..   I would not be surprised if many of out tame experts have shares in Pfizer, added to the money they were paid directly from taxpayers pockets, and now they may lose a lot of money because it looks like SAGE will be disbanded and no vaccine required for OMGicron variety and Pfizer shares will drop.   Sage were not following the science but following the money oink, oink.

Sage put forward a series of scenarios. The media seize on the most extreme.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/vallance-hits-back-at-tory-accusations-of-omicron-fear-mongering
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/its-not-true-covid-19-modellers-look-only-at-worst-outcomes

Edit added link to Vallance's article
« Last Edit: December 24, 2021, 03:47:37 PM by JimSh »

madasafish

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #318 on: December 24, 2021, 03:38:29 PM »
Precisely.
Only those ignorant of scientific processes think experts give ONE forecast.
Only those wanting to cause upset/trouble/strife /with an agenda pick on one extreme.

I was trained as a physicist and an accountant.
When you make any assessment of a future unknown , you make a range of assumptions. Combine them all and you have a range of outcomes.
ANYONE - but anyone - seizing on one extreme to suit their case is not worth listening to in my opinion as that IS NOT how things are decided in the real world.


I used to review the financial budgets of companies as part of a large Group. We always started with the assumptions. If ALL the assumptions were pessimistic or optimistic that was a clear warning sign that there was likely to be another agenda in play.

And almost inevitably they were told to revise their assumptions to be more realistic.



Jocko

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #319 on: December 24, 2021, 08:01:27 PM »
The number of hospital cases in Scotland confirmed to have the Omicron strain went from 24 on Thursday to 42 on Friday. Rather a concerning jump.

Kremmen

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #320 on: December 25, 2021, 04:24:56 AM »
That is their main concern.

Whilst the strain is apparently less severe, the number of infections is skyrocketing so those who are vulnerable, either through other health issues or self inflicted know it all's will increase.
Let's be careful out there !

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #321 on: December 25, 2021, 09:46:42 AM »
The number of hospital cases in Scotland confirmed to have the Omicron strain went from 24 on Thursday to 42 on Friday. Rather a concerning jump.

Much better than being confirmed with Delta, evidence so far predicts most will be out in 2 to 3 days, without oxygen, rather than 8 to 9 for Delta and earlier variants... 'In for Christmas and back out before Hogmanay  :)
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #322 on: December 26, 2021, 10:35:34 AM »
This may be behind a paywall, ---  Professor Graham Medley head of SAGE modelling team made a shocking admission 'we model what we are asked to model by the decision makers ( government ) to drive the outcomes they want'.... In other words the politicians have an agenda they want to push and ask for models to enable them to do it.... It seems rather than following the science, the science is irrelevant....   ( If anyone cannot read it I can make a PDF ) - there is also an article with SAGES own graphs vs actual data that show how astronomically, spectacularly wrong SAGE got their forecasts ( which to be fair to SAGE may well be because they were asked to show astronomically spectacularly wrong forecasts to satisfy the needs of their political masters).

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #323 on: December 26, 2021, 01:00:04 PM »
The most damning thing admitted by Prof Graham Medley is that 'we provided the models the customer ( in this case HM government ) wanted in order to implement their policies' ( which presumably had already been decided beforehand and required an 'expert' model to activate ..... That is shorthand for 'you pays us the money and get what you want'....

'I will believe there is a crisis when those in charge who are telling us there is a crisis behave as if there is a crisis'.

Here is a novel idea - tell people the truth and trust them....
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #324 on: December 26, 2021, 03:51:17 PM »

Here is a novel idea - tell people the truth and trust them....
Unlikely to get this from the present incompetent incumbents.
A big part of the problem is a government that doesn't engender trust asking you to trust it with a constant stream of changing advice.
Unfortunately such mistrust extends to science.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/20/boris-johnsons-covid-flip-flops-the-pledges-upended-by-reality
[link removed by Admin]

Edit added link
« Last Edit: January 08, 2022, 10:18:14 AM by RichardA »

ColinB

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #325 on: December 26, 2021, 04:48:39 PM »
The most damning thing admitted by Prof Graham Medley is that 'we provided the models the customer ( in this case HM government ) wanted in order to implement their policies'

Thanks for the source this time, that allows one to spot that that "quote" does not appear in the Twitter extract, it's been made up. What Medley actually said was "We generally model what we are asked to model. There is a dialogue in which policy teams discuss with the modellers what they need to inform their policies.". That's not quite the same thing, it's saying they'll model the scenarios that are needed. And, as he says, there's no point expending effort modelling something where the outcome is known, it's assumed that the policy makers already know that one (which, admittedly, could be a dodgy assumption).

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #326 on: December 27, 2021, 09:14:30 AM »
Information from 3 lockdowns shows that deaths and infections were falling before the lockdowns began, this was  never mentioned, in fact data showing a surge of infections and deaths and a sudden cliff edge drop after lockdown was shown in all national media.  The data from Sweden ( who did not lock down ) shows the same pattern of waves as UK... embarrassing or what ?  If it looks like fish and smells like fish - it will be fishy.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-and-the-lockdown-effect-a-look-at-the-evidence
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

Lord Voltermore

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #327 on: December 27, 2021, 11:29:11 AM »
The adages " you can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some all the time...."  and  "lies, damned lies and statistic' have been true for centuries.   

. Decision makers have always cherry picked the opinions that best meet their own  agenda. . Or populated prestigious paid   committees and think tanks with biased  'yes men'.   If any members make a personal comment  contrary to the script  they are side lined to  obscurity or discredited. Plenty more where they came from eager for the lime light.   
    Same happens with politicians who behave badly.They hide back under their nasty stones for a while until we forget  how ghastly and incompetent they are.   
Its nothing new.  Its just the current bunch are particularly incompetent at hiding their dishonesty and greed.

Often the difference between  those who died 'with' covid , or 'of' covid is not made clear .When the proportion of society testing positive rises, so will those admitted to hospital for other reasons. And so will the number who die for other reasons who tested positive  during the last 28 days.  Even if they died in a car crash.  Yet its always been the case more people die in winter, even if they have been kept comfortably warm and fed. 

For many a simplified  'dont think ,just trust us.  Get jabbed so you and your granny wont die' ' message may work best. . 

For those of us who dig deeper  you will always find a professor  and a bunch of students who have done a possibly brief study, whos conclusions opinions and statistics agree with what you always thought. Or if you dont want to dig for yourself you can chose a favourite newspaper that can be relied upon to report what you expect.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2021, 11:32:07 AM by Lord Voltermore »
  Trust a dog to guard your house  , but not your sandwich

JimSh

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« Last Edit: December 29, 2021, 04:37:54 PM by JimSh »

Julian Okampos

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #329 on: December 29, 2021, 10:19:40 PM »
The adages " you can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some all the time...."  and  "lies, damned lies and statistic' have been true for centuries.   

. Decision makers have always cherry picked the opinions that best meet their own  agenda. . Or populated prestigious paid   committees and think tanks with biased  'yes men'.   If any members make a personal comment  contrary to the script  they are side lined to  obscurity or discredited. Plenty more where they came from eager for the lime light.   
    Same happens with politicians who behave badly.They hide back under their nasty stones for a while until we forget  how ghastly and incompetent they are.   
Its nothing new.  Its just the current bunch are particularly incompetent at hiding their dishonesty and greed.

Often the difference between  those who died 'with' covid , or 'of' covid is not made clear .When the proportion of society testing positive rises, so will those admitted to hospital for other reasons. And so will the number who die for other reasons who tested positive  during the last 28 days.  Even if they died in a car crash.  Yet its always been the case more people die in winter, even if they have been kept comfortably warm and fed. 

For many a simplified  'dont think ,just trust us.  Get jabbed so you and your granny wont die' ' message may work best. . 

For those of us who dig deeper  you will always find a professor  and a bunch of students who have done a possibly brief study, whos conclusions opinions and statistics agree with what you always thought. Or if you dont want to dig for yourself you can chose a favourite newspaper that can be relied upon to report what you expect. Anyway, for my business I arranged this great thing. No complaints so far!
   
The good news: It'll likely be over by March, maybe February, and omicron may be the most infectious form this virus is able to take (it's already the most infectious virus known it appears). And in that case, it will continue to dominate future mutations as they occur while, perhaps becoming even less capable of causing damage to the host.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2021, 06:09:47 PM by Julian Okampos »

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