New South African variant.

[JimSh]

Minutes of the Sage meeting on Thursday 16th December have now been released to the public. (5minute read)

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-99-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-16-december-2021/sage-99-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-16-december-2021

Situation update

"1. The number of Omicron infections in the UK has continued to increase very rapidly with the doubling time in England currently around 2 days. This is faster than the growth rate seen in March 2020.

2. In England it is almost certain that there are now hundreds of thousands of new Omicron infections per day. Levels of Omicron infection are currently highest in London. Reported numbers of confirmed and suspected Omicron infections will only be a small proportion of the actual number. This is because there are lags between people becoming infected, being tested, and getting test results (data lags matter most when growth is very fast); not all tests allow the variant to be identified; and not everyone who is infected is tested.
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.
.
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8. The earlier interventions happen the greater the effect they will have (high confidence). This may also mean that they can be kept in place for a shorter duration. Illustrative scenarios from SPI-M-O suggest that measures equivalent to those in place after Step 2 or Step 1 of the Roadmap in England, if enacted early enough, could substantially reduce the potential peak in hospital admissions and infections compared with Plan B alone (medium confidence). The timing of such measures is crucial. Delaying until 2022 would greatly reduce the effectiveness of such interventions and make it is less likely that these would prevent considerable pressure on health and care settings."



Take care everybody.

[Kremmen]

Sky have just reported that SA are still saying that their peak was high but short and it does seem milder than Delta.

My greater London area on the gov dashboard is showing high infection but zero deaths and low hospital admission.

Time will tell.


 Published: 14:22, 18 December 2021 | Updated: 18:22, 18 December 2021 :

The majority of new cases today are still from Gauteng (28 per cent), followed by KwaZulu-Natal (25 per cent).

Yesterday, the country’s health minister Joe Phaahla revealed 1.7 per cent of Covid cases went on to be hospitalized during the second week of the current wave. For comparison, he said the equivalent figure was 19 per cent in the second week of South Africa’s Delta crisis.

Higher immunity levels due to vaccination and previous infection now than when Delta took off are thought to be behind the lower hospitalization rate.
But Phaahla suggested Omicron may have evolved to be milder, bolstering claims made by doctors treating patients on the frontline.

Public health official Wassila Jassat, who also attended the conference, said South Africa had fewer patients needing oxygen now than when Delta emerged. She added that patients were hospitalized for a shorter period.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10323991/Omicron-Covid-cases-South-African-ground-zero-peaked-6-December.html

[culzean]

Pfizer hates Omicron - their profits will drop off a cliff come new year.  They are still passing brown envelopes to the tame experts to keep telling the sheep scary stories though...

[JimSh]

Pfizer hates Omicron - their profits will drop off a cliff come new year.  They are still passing brown envelopes to the tame experts to keep telling the sheep scary stories though...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?isci=010702

and rising fast.
Unfortunately I don't think Pfizer profits are in any danger.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/16/boris-johnson-go-out-catch-covid-ignore-the-science-or-trust-in-chris-whitty

Edit Added Worldometer link.

[Jocko]

118 Scotrail services had to be cancelled today because of a shortage of staff due to having Covid or self-isolating.
Many Premier League footballers have decided not to get vaccinated. The FA should say, "No jab, no play".

Germany has very few identified cases of Omicron but they have decided to come down hard on UK travellers and their own unvaccinated.

Singapore has mandated that the unvaccinated will have to pay for their own medical care if they are hospitalised with Covid

[Kremmen]

Very early days still but deaths and hospitalisations not following infections.

SA reporting still the same there.

Here's hoping.

[JimSh]

Very early days still but deaths and hospitalisations not following infections.

SA reporting still the same there.

Here's hoping.

You are Boris Johnson and I claim my £5

[madasafish]

Very early days still but deaths and hospitalisations not following infections.

SA reporting still the same there.

Here's hoping.

104 hospitalisations and 10 deaths per The Independent.

(Which given Omicron was first detected in two cases on  27th November in the UK - 3 and a half weeks ago - is rather scary.)

Remember the lags:
infection to hospitalisation
hospitalisation to death
recording death due to Covid

are around 2 to 4 weeks.

[JimSh]

Very early days still but deaths and hospitalisations not following infections.

SA reporting still the same there.

Here's hoping.

On second thoughts, you are not doing anybody any harm by waiting with crossed fingers to see what happens.
Mr Johnson on the other hand could potentially be doing a lot of harm with his delaying and indecision.

He is no longer following the Science.
See Point 8 from the Sage meeting.
"8. The earlier interventions happen the greater the effect they will have (high confidence). This may also mean that they can be kept in place for a shorter duration. Illustrative scenarios from SPI-M-O suggest that measures equivalent to those in place after Step 2 or Step 1 of the Roadmap in England, if enacted early enough, could substantially reduce the potential peak in hospital admissions and infections compared with Plan B alone (medium confidence). The timing of such measures is crucial. Delaying until 2022 would greatly reduce the effectiveness of such interventions and make it is less likely that these would prevent considerable pressure on health and care settings."

He's not doing the economy any good either with the uncertainty he is causing just now or, if he delays restrictions, any future restrictions or lockdowns will have to be imposed for a longer time.
It seems Mr Johnson is more afraid of his back-bench nutters than the consequences of ignoring his scientific advisers.

https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/news-analysis/covid-vaccine-omicron-boris-johnson-b1979678.html

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59733893

[Kremmen]

I'm basing my optimism on my local area via the dashboard.

I remember a year ago when Delta took off and so did my local figures, quite rapidly. Deaths and hospital rose alongside infections

Yesterday, my local data was 479 new infections (3015 over last 7 days), zero deaths and 1 person admitted to hospital.

I admit I could very well be wrong, as usual,  but so far so good near me (Greater London) 

[JimSh]

I'm basing my optimism on my local area via the dashboard.

I remember a year ago when Delta took off and so did my local figures, quite rapidly. Deaths and hospital rose alongside infections

Yesterday, my local data was 479 new infections (3015 over last 7 days), zero deaths and 1 person admitted to hospital.

I admit I could very well be wrong, as usual,  but so far so good near me (Greater London) 

Stay safe.
There is a lag between infection and hospitalisation and death.
At the moment the cases are mainly amongst the young. (scroll down to Demographics) many of whom will not be fully vaccinated but will have better immune systems.
The older age groups are still more vulnerable to hospitalisations and deaths.
Last year there were a lot fewer vaccinated people.
There will be a lot of mixing between age groups at Christmas.
Johnson is taking a big gamble.

https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases
Take care.

[culzean]

Johnson is taking a big gamble.

The leader of a country has to be a bit of a gambler, and we cannot let this man-made virus continue to control our lives and trash our economy.... If the cost is worked out as '£'s per life 'saved' the figures are eye-watering.... and at the same time you have to add how much economic output has been cut... Those figures do not make pleasant reading.

[JimSh]

Johnson is taking a big gamble.

The leader of a country has to be a bit of a gambler, and we cannot let this man-made virus continue to control our lives and trash our economy.... If the cost is worked out as '£'s per life 'saved' the figures are eye-watering.... and at the same time you have to add how much economic output has been cut... Those figures do not make pleasant reading.

Better safe than sorry for me  ---both with lives and with money.
Don't want to get too political but
Johnson doesn't seem to be leading but following opinion polls -- that's the data he is following.
He has repeatedly cost the country both in lives and money by delaying restrictions and removing them early.
This idea of economy versus lives is a false one. The economy can't thrive if the population is sick or isolating
At the moment the country is lacking in guidance again. People need clarity on what is allowed or not and businesses need to know what to expect so that they can plan ahead and have compensation when the business is not viable.
[link removed by Admin]
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59736716

Edit added Links

[Kremmen]

Is it Boris or Carrie that's making the decisions 

[JimSh]

Is it Boris or Carrie that's making the decisions 

Or neither.
Government inaction ‘staggering and deeply frustrating’, warns leading expert

Dr Jeremy Farrar, director of Wellcome and a former member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), has said the UK is now entering a “new and troubling phase of this pandemic”.

In a warning to the prime minister, he said: “We cannot afford to cross our fingers and hope this crisis blows over. As we have learned from the very beginning of this pandemic, it’s better to act sooner than later.

“It is essential that governments act swiftly and accordingly, paying close attention to the data. South Africa and the UK may be at the forefront of this new wave but this will affect every country.

“To bring Omicron under any form of control, it’s critical that transmission is slowed. If not, we could see profound impacts on health systems but also across sectors such as education, hospitality, public transport, police and essential national infrastructure as infections prevent people from working. No country can afford to think they are an exception.”

Dr Farrar said it was “staggering and deeply frustrating” that two years into the pandemic “governments are still not anticipating events and acting early or working together anywhere near the scale that is required”.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-christmas-circuit-breaker-lockdown-latest-b1979895.html?page=2#post-533318

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-christmas-circuit-breaker-lockdown-latest-b1979895.html