Tier 3 and above.

[culzean]

The reason UK hit so badly ( this was a quote from WHO way back in March ) 'UK has lots of sick and unhealthy people who have been kept alive by NHS, they should expect large numbers of Covid deaths'...

The reason the Uk has been hit so badly has been the inept, short-sighted handling by the government -
in particular their reluctance to restrict flights or apply quarantine or enforce self isolation and their inability to impose a working test,track and isolate system.

Average age of UK victim is 82 with two or more co-morbidities, average life expectancy in UK is about 80 even in good times.  Obesity is probably the biggest risk factor,  followed by age and other pre-existing conditions, bad news is that the effectiveness of vaccine is reduced in obese people.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/26/obesity-increases-risk-of-covid-19-death-by-48-study-finds

Unfortunate consequence of healthcare free at point of use is that too many people do not take enough care of their health...

[Jocko]

bad news is that the effectiveness of vaccine is reduced in obese people.

The link actually says "may make vaccines against the disease less effective,"
Bold italics mine.

[Westy36]

The front page of the Guardian has seven photos of regular day to day people that have died. It's like looking in a mirror. Massive numbers are meaningless, or are rather hard to comprehend, but a few people and it is much more relatable.

Middle of the month will soon be with us. Optomist as I am, this brings us nearer to spring and the possibility of an improving situation.

[Kremmen]

Airlines, workplaces and sports stadiums may soon require people to show their coronavirus vaccination status on their smartphones before they can enter.

A coalition of leading technology companies, health organizations and nonprofit groups — including Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, Cerner, Epic Systems, the Mitre Corporation and the Mayo Clinic — announced on Thursday morning that they were developing technology standards to enable consumers to obtain and share their immunization records through health passport apps.

“For some period of time, most all of us are going to have to demonstrate either negative Covid-19 testing or an up-to-date vaccination status to go about the normal routines of our lives,” said Dr. Brad Perkins, the chief medical officer at the Commons Project Foundation, a nonprofit organization in Geneva that is a member of the vaccine credential initiative.

That will happen, Dr. Perkins added, “whether it’s getting on an airplane and going to a different country, whether it’s going to work, to school, to the grocery store, to live concerts or sporting events.”

[sparky Paul]

average life expectancy in UK is about 80 even in good times

Yes, but that's from birth - meaningless when talking about someone that's already reached the age of 80, it's like saying that you've had your innings.

Statistically, an 80 year old would be expected to live another 10 years, with a 1 in 10 chance that a male would live to 96, or 98 if you are female.

From birth, you have a 1 in 10 chance of not reaching pension age.

[Jocko]

From birth, you have a 1 in 10 chance of not reaching pension age.

Pete, one of the van drivers I used to work with was about 8 months from retiring. Because I was already retired, he would ask me questions about applying for the pension, how much, National Insurance and the like.
One night, he went home, sat down in front of the telly, had a massive stroke, and died.

[sparky Paul]

On the .gov coronavirus website now,

"Due to an issue with the processing of deaths data, the update for 14 January 2021 is delayed."

Roughly translated - Today's numbers are grim and we've decided there's too many. Stand by while we shuffle them about and spread them over a few days, like we did in the first peak.

[Jocko]

Scotland reported 64 deaths today.

[JimSh]

On the .gov coronavirus website now,

"Due to an issue with the processing of deaths data, the update for 14 January 2021 is delayed."

Roughly translated - Today's numbers are grim and we've decided there's too many. Stand by while we shuffle them about and spread them over a few days, like we did in the first peak.

Regulator refuses to approve mass Covid testing at schools in England

Boris Johnson’s plans to test millions of schoolchildren for coronavirus every week appear to be in disarray after the UK regulator refused to formally approve the daily testing of pupils in England.
The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) told the government on Tuesday it had not authorised the daily use of 30-minute tests due to concerns that they give people false reassurance if they test negative.
This could lead to pupils staying in school and potentially spreading the virus when they should be self-isolating.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/14/regulator-refuses-to-approve-mass-covid-testing-schools-in-england

Roughly translated -
Hancock sitting with millions of unsuitable tests fast approaching their expiry date?

Adam Finn, a professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol, has made a similar point, saying LFTs are “red light tests” not “green light tests”, meaning that testing negative does not mean a person can behave as if they are virus-free.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/14/experts-remain-divided-mass-covid-tests-schools

Edit changed "unreliable" to "unsuitable"

[Kremmen]

Infections and deaths in care homes taking off again according to todays front pages.

I thought they had care homes sorted

[madasafish]

Infections and deaths in care homes taking off again according to todays front pages.

I thought they had care homes sorted

"The new figures come after The Telegraph revealed that the Government is proposing to send hospital patients into care homes without tests despite being warned that was responsible for driving up cases in the first wave."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/14/shocking-care-home-covid-outbreaks-match-levels-peak-first-wave/

[Jocko]

These are care homes that have separate sections for recovering Covid patients. Patients who have had the virus and are getting over it but need time to recover. That way, they can free up hospital beds for seriously sick and dying.
The care homes want to take them, but their insurers will not cover them in case of legal action.

[ColinB]

Infections and deaths in care homes taking off again according to todays front pages.

I thought they had care homes sorted

"The new figures come after The Telegraph revealed that the Government is proposing to send hospital patients into care homes without tests despite being warned that was responsible for driving up cases in the first wave."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/14/shocking-care-home-covid-outbreaks-match-levels-peak-first-wave/

Can't read the article because of the paywall, BUT:
- First line that's visible says "Outbreaks of Covid-19 in care homes have more than trebled in a month" (my emphasis)
- The quote you reproduce says "... the Government is proposing to send hospital patients into care homes without tests ..." (my emphasis)
So let's not get carried away by assuming that something that's not happened yet has caused something that has happened.

[Jocko]

So the R0 is still between 1.2 and 1.3, the same as last week. It looks like we still have a way to go. Add to that the Brazillian strain is here in the UK (It is a bit pricklier than the homegrown variety).
Scotland had planned on having all home care workers vaccinated by the end of March, but now it will be completed this month. So good news there.

[Westy36]

Interesting Radio 4 programme "How effective is one dose of the vaccine?"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000r4t9