Tier 3 and above.

[Jocko]

As more and more parts of England go into Tier 3, Scotland is about to announce their Tier system. We will have five Tiers (SAGE has already admitted that Tier 3 is not strict enough) but as it is the whole of Scotland is already in a Tier 2/3 situation. For most of Scotland, pubs are already closed. You can go in for a "substantial meal" but no alcohol (so there is no real point in them opening). Pubs outside the central belt can serve alcohol until 6 pm, outdoors, but in Scotland in October? You'd be as well going down the "offey" and getting a couple of cans of super lager then joining the jakeys down the park. At least you would get a bit of company.
It looks as though Lanarkshire will go into Tier 4 from next week, pretty much total lockdown in all but name.
The north of England wants a route map out of lockdown, so here is my idea. Ten years from now once a vaccine has been found, and there is sufficient to go around and give everyone two doses a year (antibodies appears to drop off rapidly according to latest evidence from The Imperial College London) then they will come out of lockdown.
And as for levelling up across England. That will happen soon. When the south ends up in Tier 3 as well.

[sparky Paul]

We've just escaped tier 3 (England), for now. The south of the county (Nottingham, Rushcliffe, Broxtowe & Gedling) has been moved into tier 3, leaving us behind in tier 2. Most of my family are already in tier 3, over the border in South Yorkshire.

The case rate here has gone up from around 80 per 100,000 a few weeks ago, to 280+ on the latest figures, and is still increasing with tier 2 restrictions. As the data is a few days old when published, I think there's a fair chance that it's now heading over 350, which seems to be the trigger for tier 3, at least locally.

I can't see how tier 3 will work. It seems to slow things down, but it's certainly not reducing the overall numbers - the only advantage seems to be the additional financial support. It doesn't look like a long term solution to me - I can see a tier 4 coming soon.

As for compliance, I've watched neighbours on both sides of me break the rules on visitors since tier 2 was introduced, and one of them is an ex-police officer. One of the cheeky buggers parked their car outside my house yesterday, looked like they were visiting me!

[peteo48]

I think a lot of people are making things worse by being, frankly, bone headed. A friend put a post on Facebook a fortnight ago. He had gone to his local pub for an evening meal with his wife. It was clear that the table next to them - admittedly distanced, was occupied from people who clearly didn't come from the same household. They came in wearing masks as required but, once sat down, started animated conversation leaning in to each other across the table. When they left they put their masks back on but my friend saw them in the car park huddled together laughing and joking without masks.

Would we need lockdowns if people weren't so stupid?

[JimSh]

As for compliance, I've watched neighbours on both sides of me break the rules on visitors since tier 2 was introduced, and one of them is an ex-police officer.

Yes, it's all about compliance. Even bastions of the BBC are not above bending the rules to suit themselves. 
At least she thought better about it. But would she if she had not been in the public eye?
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2020/oct/27/victoria-derbyshires-covid-christmas-comments-problematic-say-experts

[Kremmen]

100% agree.

It's the selfish ones who are wrecking it for the rest of us. Most of them reported to be the 20 to 30 age group.

I've not used public transport and only visited my local supermarket and the odd 07:00 trip to B&Q to avoid the crowds.

[ColinB]

The road map out of the problem is actually pretty well known and has been demonstrated already in various countries, most recently here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54654646

Excerpt: “...four critical pillars in Australia's determined response to Covid-19: the closure of its international borders, "uniformly good" testing in all states and territories, contact tracing, where New South Wales has set "the gold standard", and a compliant community that has embraced distancing protocols.”
The UK seems to be unable or unwilling to do any of that properly, and is therefore failing.

Of course, that’s just the epidemiological aspect of the pandemic. The knock-on effects on the economy, mental health, suspending of other medical procedures, etc are likely to continue long after the immediate fire has been extinguished.

[Jocko]

I was hearing today of a Poice Scotland inspector who doesn't believe in Covid-19 and tries to run his shift as Trump would. He won't wear a mask, won't social distance. Perhaps he has already had it because the latest research shows it causes a deterioration in brain function, even in those who have little or no symptoms. Whether the brain will recover only time will tell.

[sparky Paul]

It's the selfish ones who are wrecking it for the rest of us. Most of them reported to be the 20 to 30 age group.

That's not what I'm seeing here in rural Notts, much older age group are ignoring the rules.

The road map out of the problem is actually pretty well known and has been demonstrated already in various countries, most recently here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54654646

Absolutely. Lockdowns are all well and good, but they will never be anything but a sticking plaster while some system is devised to take its place. We can't keep locking down, the damage will be widespread and long lasting. We need an effective contact trace and isolate.

[sparky Paul]

Perhaps he has already had it because the latest research shows it causes a deterioration in brain function, even in those who have little or no symptoms. Whether the brain will recover only time will tell.

Brain fog is certainly a well known 'long covid' symptom.

I've been following the great children's author Michael Rosen's progress on twitter. After spending 7 weeks in intensive care, 6 of them on a ventilator, he still suffers from brain fog, blood clots, partial blindness, deafness, dizzy spells, numbness, and other symptoms.

All that said, he's made a remarkable recovery. After being ill for a couple of weeks, his wife was told by NHS 111 not to take him to hospital, and to care for him at home. However, a doctor friend looked at him and found his oxygen sats at 58%, and signs of the onset of organ failure. He's been very fortunate.

[madasafish]

It's the selfish ones who are wrecking it for the rest of us. Most of them reported to be the 20 to 30 age group.

That's not what I'm seeing here in rural Notts, much older age group are ignoring the rules.

The road map out of the problem is actually pretty well known and has been demonstrated already in various countries, most recently here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54654646

Absolutely. Lockdowns are all well and good, but they will never be anything but a sticking plaster while some system is devised to take its place. We can't keep locking down, the damage will be widespread and long lasting. We need an effective contact trace and isolate.

[/b]

The last Coronovirus thread had the only feasible suggestion - isolating and vaccinating  the very vulnerable and letting the rest get on with life.
With regular testing..

That suggestion has ben roundly pooh poohed by the establishment medics  without any alternative proposal and with the argument the NHS would be overwhelmed.
 They fail to recognise the way the economy is going that  the NHS is going to be unaffordable if we keep closing down the economy. 2020's GDP is forecast to be 10% down on 2019.

[sparky Paul]

The last Coronovirus thread had the only feasible suggestion - isolating and vaccinating  the very vulnerable and letting the rest get on with life.
With regular testing..

There may not be an effective vaccine for years, if ever. As said above, people are already being re-infected with new strains of the virus, another new one was isolated this week, I think it was on a cargo ship docked in New Zealand? You can't expect people to lock themselves away when there's no light at the end of the tunnel.

I was all for the initial lockdown, it should have come earlier... but we should, by now, have a system in place that makes lockdowns all but redundant. We should have replaced lockdown with a zero-covid strategy, such as that described in the link.

The current tier 2 measures here must already be damaging businesses, I popped into town today and it was very quiet. I suspect that these half-measures will do more damage to businesses than they do to the virus.

[culzean]

The so called cure is causing much more damage than the disease...... all the lockdowns have done is spread the virus out and taken it into the seasonal flu territory... 

[sparky Paul]

The so called cure is causing much more damage than the disease...... all the lockdowns have done is spread the virus out and taken it into the seasonal flu territory...

I agree, but that's only because the virus will get a free run again. That £12billion+ should have paid to put some system in place to control infections... instead, they were banking on a vaccine.

[JimSh]

The so called cure is causing much more damage than the disease...... all the lockdowns have done is spread the virus out and taken it into the seasonal flu territory... 

The lockdown was a blunt instrument to bring down the R value to less than one.
The reckless, unmonitored loosening of restrictions was what allowed the resurgence of the virus. The restrictions should have been released more carefully and if necessary some of the restrictions reimposed to keep the level of the virus at a manageable level. To release the restrictions wiilly-nilly without a proper track and trace system in place was irresponsible madness.
https://abc7news.com/hammer-and-the-dance-update-tomas-pueyo-coronavirus-article/6199923/
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-do-testing-and-contact-tracing-bde85b64072e

That £12billion+ should have paid to put some system in place to control infections... instead, they were banking on a vaccine.

[link removed by Admin]

Edit added second Tomas Pueyo link

[sparky Paul]

We've just escaped tier 3 (England), for now. The south of the county (Nottingham, Rushcliffe, Broxtowe & Gedling) has been moved into tier 3, leaving us behind in tier 2.

I spoke too soon.

I'm hearing that the whole county of Nottinghamshire is now being considered for tier 3, and that the current council leaders of areas still in tier 2 will be meeting the government first thing in the morning. Apparently, it could delay the implementation for areas already agreed to move into tier 3 on Thursday.