Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 25030 times)

JimSh

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #930 on: June 06, 2020, 08:42:41 PM »
For the last 2 months the priority of the government has been to maximise the number of tests -never mind targetting or accuracy -double counting, counting tests posted out rather than returned etc.
It's little wonder the statistics derived from these tests are meaningless.
The R values, by the nature of the way they are calculated are retrospective and if the only reliable method of measuring the change in the prevalence of the virus is by counting deaths then they will be about three weeks out of date.
By the time any increase in infection rate is noted it would be very difficult to mitigate it and it wouldn't look good to reverse changes just recently implemented. The infection rate should have been reduced much further before relaxation of the lockdown was started so that their was more margin of error.
As Madasafish says "Appearance is all" to this government.
No wonder the scientists and medics are warning of the dangers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/06/prime-minister-told-to-dump-rhetoric-and-plan-for-new-covid-wave
https://www.ft.com/content/26eaa9cd-021c-48e2-95ae-342e2f2cad37

Edit added last link
« Last Edit: June 06, 2020, 08:45:38 PM by JimSh »

John Ratsey

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #931 on: June 06, 2020, 08:59:44 PM »
As people get more mobile and facilities reopen then the R values are likely to pick up in areas which didn't see much of the virus during the March-April peak because those areas have much bigger reservoirs of people waiting to be infected. I doubt if there will be a second peak in those areas which have already suffered badly as the virus will have more difficulty in finding people who haven't already been infected. The majority of the population won't tolerate increasing the lockdown again and they'll just follow Cummings leadership. As long as the most vulnerable are protected (which didn't happen in March) then the hospitals are unlikely to be overloaded.

BTW, more discussion about the likelihood of the virus actively spreading here before it officially arrived https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52935644 . However, there appears to be no enthusiasm by the NHS, Public Health England or the politicians to verify the speculation by those who, retrospectively, think they or family had the virus due to what are now known to be symptoms. Earlier arrival means that the estimates of R value and those who may have been infected would need to be recalculated. If it was here a month or two earlier then perhaps it doesn't spread as well as originally deduced.

ColinB

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #932 on: June 07, 2020, 07:24:54 AM »
For the last 2 months the priority of the government has been to maximise the number of tests -never mind targetting or accuracy -double counting, counting tests posted out rather than returned etc.
Testing was never a priority, it was actually stopped in the early days. The priority has always been to protect the NHS. Even if that means clearing the decks by shipping untested elderly patients - who may well have been asymptomatic - out of hospitals to care homes without worrying about the consequences, and redeploying staff and resources away from other important services.

... it wouldn't look good to reverse changes just recently implemented.
Yeah, that’s what worries me. BoJo yet again making a political decision that’s in his interests but not necessarily ours.

culzean

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #933 on: June 07, 2020, 10:28:48 AM »
As long as the most vulnerable are protected (which didn't happen in March) then the hospitals are unlikely to be overloaded.

Well Sweden said they were protecting vulnerable people while allowing majority to carry on - that worked well didn't it   https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52704836

Quote from BBC article

"They told us that we shouldn't send anyone to the hospital, even if they may be 65 and have many years to live. We were told not to send them in," says Latifa L�nberg, a nurse who worked in several care homes around Gävle, north of Stockholm, at the beginning of the pandemic.


Canada also had over 80% of their deaths in care homes and 90% of deaths are people over 65.

We need to face the fact that we have a large pool of vulnerable people in UK,  some of it due to NHS success over the years keeping frail people with several underlying conditions alive,  and a sizeable BAME population who are more likely to be diabetic and have heart disease than 'natives' ( for want of a better word  LOL ).

I would put good money on the majority of government critics / Boris bashers on here not being young people.  There never was a silver bullet / one size fits all option for government,  every government around the world probably followed 'expert' advice with varying success,  no government can afford to trash economy and sorry to say it was always going to be a balancing act between number of deaths / overwhelming NHS / and economy.  The youngsters will never forgive old people for forcing policies that condemn them to massive future debt and unemployment.

There are theories that population in places like South Korea and Japan may be more resistant to virus than other countries, we may find it was that and not the 'track and trace' apps that meant they have done better than others.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2020, 10:43:27 AM by culzean »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

JimSh

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #934 on: June 07, 2020, 10:59:22 AM »
For the last 2 months the priority of the government has been to maximise the number of tests -never mind targetting or accuracy -double counting, counting tests posted out rather than returned etc.
Testing was never a priority, it was actually stopped in the early days.The priority has always been to protect the NHS.
Yes That was a big mistake. They should never have ramped up the testing right from the start before the spread of the virus got out of hand. The priority was not to let the NHS get overwhelmed.

But we are where we are now.


Well Sweden said they were protecting vulnerable people while allowing majority to carry on - that worked well didn't it   https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52704836

That's effectively what the UK was doing at the start too.




I would put good money on the majority of government critics / Boris bashers on here not being young people.  There never was a silver bullet / one size fits all option for government,  every government around the world probably followed 'expert' advice with varying success,  no government can afford to trash economy and sorry to say it was always going to be a balancing act between number of deaths / overwhelming NHS / and economy. 

Boris is set on a course of achieving the worst of both worlds -killing off tens of thousands (perhaps hundreds of thousands) of people and wrecking the economy by coming out of lockdown too soon ( probably necessitating a further lockdown with even worse economic consequences and as Colin B says it's not going to be easy to get people to accept it)

  The youngsters will never forgive old people for forcing policies that condemn them to massive future debt and unemployment.


Agreed




Jocko

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #935 on: June 07, 2020, 11:21:27 AM »
Japan may be more resistant to virus than other countries.
Obesity is one of the main factors in surviving Covid-19, and Japan has one of the lowest levels of obesity in the world and certainly in the "modern" world.

Regarding infections in care homes. When Scotland dealt with the problem of "Delayed Discharge" by sending old people into care homes without a negative test, there were instructions in place that the care homes were to treat them as possibly infected and they were to be isolated in the care home for 14 days. Whether this was not done due to no isolation or lack of PPE or whatever will probably come to lighting in months to come. There will have to be a Public Enquiry. Most of the infected care homes, but not all, are private enterprises, run for profit, and if Skye is anything to go by, corners cut.
The same care home that have just increased the charges to residents by £100/week to cover their Covid costs! The care homes who did not put staff forward for testing because they could not afford a positive test to see staff being sent home to self-isolate.
The police and procurator fiscal are involved in the care home in Skye, and after the Public Enquiry, I am sure further care home managers and owners will feel the full weight of the law.

madasafish

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #936 on: June 07, 2020, 12:04:57 PM »
I am elderly (72).
I am niot naive enough to expect any Government to solve the Covid -19 problem without making a few mistakes  . The virus was new, relatively unknown and spreading rapidly.

But I DO expect a Government  - especially when the pandemic start was some two weeks behind other EC countries -
to learn from others' mistakes,
to use best practise form other countries,
and to take a balanced viewpoint..

Instead we had policies adopted only to be reversed days later - eg herd immunity, the shambles of testing  and Public Health England "obfuscating"
  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/07/phes-inability-deliver-mass-testing-delayed-easing-lockdown/

And now when it's half way through we are quarantining incoming passengers...and have no analysis of how many are tested and where the sources of infection are.. or if we have it, teh Government is not sharing it..

As I said up top, I do not expect perfection but downright incompetence is inexcusable..  Any company run like this would have had a shareholders' revolt and the Board fired..

If I were young, I would be very unhappy at the combination of record high deaths (incompetence)  and high borroiwngs.. And it is all due to the Government and PHE...

As an OAP I had no say in any of the decisions made.. Don't blame OAPs...


culzean

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #937 on: June 07, 2020, 12:08:45 PM »
It is very hard to deal with something you cannot see, is so small you can fit 1000 of them in width of a human hair, and can remain viable on surfaces for a long time.  It is no good blaming any government except the one in Beijing for this virus, it was bought into humans by their ridiculous attitude to bush meat - and selling live and uncooked meats from wild animals to the public ( like Pangolins and Bats ), same thing happened in Africa with ebola ( from bat meat ) but lucky for us ebola does not travel well.  Pangolins are one of the most endangered species in the world thanks to Chinese,  and most of the other endangered animals have China in their sorry tale as well,  due to their governments complete failure to control trade in wild animals,  and don't even mention shark fin soup where fins are cut off sharks and the still living but finless shark thrown back into sea. China also covered up this virus from the rest of the world until after they had lost control of it and there was no hiding it any more,  they treat rest of world with contempt but are happy enough to take our money.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-17/what-are-wet-markets-in-china/12159920

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ebola-virus-disease

MERS was another coronavirus that passed from camels to humans in middle east,  luckily it does not spread easily.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2020, 12:28:42 PM by culzean »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

sparky Paul

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #938 on: June 07, 2020, 12:56:41 PM »
It is very hard to deal with something you cannot see, is so small you can fit 1000 of them in width of a human hair, and can remain viable on surfaces for a long time.  It is no good blaming any government except the one in Beijing

Of course you can blame "any government except the one in Beijing".

You can blame HM Government for the mistakes and a generally piss poor response that has cost thousands of lives. We all know where it came from, but every government has a responsibility to protect its own citizens. Instead, ours watched it developing in other countries and crossed their fingers.

Epidemiologist Professor John Edmunds, who is a member of Sage, said on Marr this morning,

Quote
We should have gone into lockdown earlier. I think it would have been hard to do it, I think the data that we were dealing with in the early part of March and our kind of situational awareness was really quite poor. And so I think it would have been very hard to pull the trigger at that point but I wish we had - I wish we had gone into lockdown earlier. I think that has cost a lot of lives unfortunately.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2020, 03:19:36 PM by sparky Paul »

Jocko

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #939 on: June 07, 2020, 01:23:41 PM »
And then Matt Hancock had the affrontery to deny that and say it hadn't led to more deaths. Just as well he is earmarked to be Boris's scapegoat.

JimSh

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #940 on: June 07, 2020, 02:07:38 PM »
It is very hard to deal with something you cannot see, is so small you can fit 1000 of them in width of a human hair, and can remain viable on surfaces for a long time. 
That's why they need an efficient test, track and trace system -not so that they can bung 30,000 kits in the post and claim to have met a target of 200,000 per day, or pay Serco vast amounts of money to hire 18,000 untrained call centre staff to sit and twiddle their thumbs.

culzean

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #941 on: June 07, 2020, 03:44:30 PM »
All this 'i wish we had done this earlier,  or done something different and it may have saved a lot of lives' is the same old 20 / 20 hindsight thing.  Nobody knows what would have happened - Chinese knew very well how bad it was and just like in 2003 SARS-1 virus they chose to hide it as long as possible. Also because they were still letting people  move around wthin China and also international travel to and from China  for new year ( they should have stopped it ) the next thing we know the virus is already in most of the countries of the world.  China is not a trustworthy citizen of the world,  maybe 'inscrutable' is another word for 'lying, secretive and untrustworthy'....

The Chinese knew about the virus from early December 2019 ( that is the date they admitted to, but probably before that ), plenty of time to stop people moving from mid-January for Chinese New Year.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2020, 04:10:31 PM by culzean »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

madasafish

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #942 on: June 07, 2020, 05:15:53 PM »
  China is not a trustworthy citizen of the world,  maybe 'inscrutable' is another word for 'lying, secretive and untrustworthy'....



So remind me ho many people have bneen tested in the UK, where is our "world leading Ttest and trace system" and why do UK deaths figures keep being adjusted retrospectively?

"'lying, secretive and untrustworthy'...."see the UK Government.

sparky Paul

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #943 on: June 07, 2020, 05:20:05 PM »
All this 'i wish we had done this earlier,  or done something different and it may have saved a lot of lives' is the same old 20 / 20 hindsight thing.  Nobody knows what would have happened

You say that, but some countries must have had an idea.

The WHO warned about the severity of the virus at the end on January, some locked down earlier and harder, and others had an aggressive testing and isolation policy. The fact that we have one of the worst death tolls in the world is nothing to do with the absence of hindsight, it's because we did neither of those things effectively. Nor is it anything to be proud of.

All these countries that performed better than the UK, and that's most developed countries, did not have crystal balls.

ColinB

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #944 on: June 07, 2020, 05:51:16 PM »
All this 'i wish we had done this earlier,  or done something different and it may have saved a lot of lives' is the same old 20 / 20 hindsight thing. 

The problem with that argument is that it doesn’t fit the facts. The countries that are suffering the horrendous death tolls - US, UK, Brazil - are the ones whose leaders stuck their heads in the sand and hoped it would all go away. Other more enlightened nations - NZ, Germany, Japan, Korea - saw exactly the same signs, acted early and decisively, and have not had the obscene numbers of deaths. So why didn’t our leaders do that, why didn’t they pick up on the same cues that the less-badly affected nations did? That wasn’t China’s fault, it can only be down to the quality of the leadership.

Oh, and blaming another nation for the failings of your own is just ridiculous. “Sir, sir, it wasn’t me sir, China did it!” Really?

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