Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 18744 times)

John Ratsey

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #735 on: May 21, 2020, 07:06:23 PM »
I think London and its commuter catchment area hit the Covid-19 peak earlier as the virus spreads most easily when people are packed together. I had previously noted this report https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/over-25-of-the-uk-likely-to-have-had-covid-19-already/ which hypothesises that at least 1/4 of the UK population will have had an encounter with the virus (and the vast majority never noticed it). I would expect that the majority of those infected would be in London and its catchment so, perhaps, half the population of that area would have some level of immunity. This is a long way towards the herd immunity threshold and would explain why the number of new cases in that part of the country is relatively small.

The more rural areas, on the other hand, have seen a much lower rate of virus spreading so there's a much bigger reservoir of uninfected people waiting to catch the virus and the R number could stay above the "one" value for longer. Hence the concern of people in those areas over easing the lockdown too quickly or allowing internal tourism and the risk that they bring. However, a lot of those visitors may well have their antibodies and no longer be infectious. I see that the government has now ordered 10 million antibody tests which, in the fullness of time, should provide some clarity. I've also read that the immunity from flu vaccine only lasts about 6 months. If the immunity from Covid-19 behaves in a similar manner then people infected in March or thereabouts will become vulnerable in the autumn. However, immunity doesn't disappear overnight but just becomes less effective.

All the above doesn't help those in the high risk group. Life will continue to be constrained until either the virus disappears or effective vaccine / treatment arrives. However, if it becomes evident that those with the right antibodies are not active spreaders then it should be possible to drop the social distancing requirements for such people.

sparky Paul

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #736 on: May 22, 2020, 11:58:17 AM »
I knew there was something fishy, I'll just put this here. If you don't like it, don't read it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/tens-thousands-coronavirus-tests-have-double-counted-officials/

JimSh

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #737 on: May 22, 2020, 12:04:26 PM »
I knew there was something fishy, I'll just put this here. If you don't like it, don't read it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/tens-thousands-coronavirus-tests-have-double-counted-officials/
My first thought was unbelievable. But I can believe it.

Sounds like something John Crace would write.

The tests also need to be targetted and used sensibly not just to obtain high numbers.

"Nicola Stonehouse, Professor of Molecular Virology at the University of Leeds, said: ďI donít think itís helpful to be simply focused on the numbers of tests. We should concentrate on using our testing intelligently and combining testing with contact tracing."
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 12:13:55 PM by JimSh »

madasafish

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #738 on: May 22, 2020, 02:40:42 PM »
"Hundreds of thousands of coronavirus tests sent to people's homes have been counted but never returned to labs, PHE's testing boss has suggested."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347479/Britain-abandoned-coronavirus-testing-March-outbreak-BIG.html

JimSh

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #739 on: May 22, 2020, 03:02:29 PM »
"Hundreds of thousands of coronavirus tests sent to people's homes have been counted but never returned to labs, PHE's testing boss has suggested."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347479/Britain-abandoned-coronavirus-testing-March-outbreak-BIG.html
What a bl**dy waste.

[Links removed by Admin]

https://www.better2know.co.uk/shop/products/home-testing-kits/covid-19-test

And even more than the money the fact that they could have been put to good use
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 08:19:03 PM by JimSh »

John Ratsey

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #740 on: May 24, 2020, 08:37:58 AM »
Here's a good article about the risk from the virus https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52758024 .

Jocko

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #741 on: May 24, 2020, 09:31:16 AM »
I am in the high-risk category. Male, over 70, obese, underlying health issues. My wife is even higher risk as she is shielding due to receiving immunotherapy. However I measure the risks (we both do), I still shop but only in big stores and with social distancing, we both go out for walks together, with extreme social distancing (we cross the road to avoid other people and touch nothing) and we wash thoroughly on our return and nothing comes into the house which isn't cleaned or quarantined. We wash after handling and disposing of any mail (I even virus check our email  ;D ).
My risks of catching Covid-19 are slim. I am more likely to die of a stroke or heart attack. Life has to go on.

culzean

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #742 on: May 24, 2020, 09:58:43 AM »
Here's a good article about the risk from the virus https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52758024 .

This is pretty much what I have been saying all along, we need to be more careful than usual but life never has and never will be risk free.  When I said on here governments needs to balance other services and healthcare and economy against SARS-Cov-2 risk I was pretty much condemned as unfeeling and heartless.  I posted stats from Canada earlier in thread about 80% of their deaths from Covid-19 in care homes and 90% of deaths being people over 60. That stat is worse than ours as far as care homes are concerned.  Only after the dust as settled and the fog of war has cleared will we ( maybe ) know how each country has coped ( or not ) - The news may even leak out of China about the huge number of people that died there, even a single party communist state cannot keep a lid on information for ever.

One thing is for sure China has come out of this very badly and been shown that despite its sleek modern veneer and strong economic growth ( starting from a very low base though, and which was slowing drastically years before this virus anyway ) - it is still a one part communist state - and a bad member of the world community.  I have always tried to avoid the 'made in China' label,  it is not easy as manufacturers can be very mendacious with their labeling and a lot of the parts in most things may originate in China even if the whole thing does not.  This virus may even result in regime change in China as the world shuns them, the economy collapses and social unrest gets out of hand.
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

JimSh

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #743 on: May 24, 2020, 11:32:03 AM »
Here's a good article about the risk from the virus https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52758024 .
The odds look quite good in the article but the situation only applies when conditions are as we are just now with the spread of the disease more or less controlled.
In the diagram of 400 dots the risk looks very slight when looked at as a whole and the dots are static but things don't look so great if you are one of the dots surrounding the black one.
 Once the dots start moving about you have a much increased chance of meeting a black one.
You need to be able to find, follow and isolate the black dots before you let the dots start moving again or the spread of the virus will take off again.

Have another look at
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
 (skim down to about section 13)
« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 02:32:30 PM by JimSh »

JimSh

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #744 on: May 24, 2020, 11:36:03 AM »
I am in the high-risk category. Male, over 70, obese, underlying health issues. My wife is even higher risk as she is shielding due to receiving immunotherapy. However I measure the risks (we both do), I still shop but only in big stores and with social distancing, we both go out for walks together, with extreme social distancing (we cross the road to avoid other people and touch nothing) and we wash thoroughly on our return and nothing comes into the house which isn't cleaned or quarantined. We wash after handling and disposing of any mail (I even virus check our email  ;D ).
My risks of catching Covid-19 are slim. I am more likely to die of a stroke or heart attack. Life has to go on.
Keep it up Jocko.
It's not just about your chances of catching Covid 19 . It's about stopping the spread of the disease going exponential again.

John Ratsey

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #745 on: May 24, 2020, 06:03:03 PM »
The odds look quite good in the article but the situation only applies when conditions are as we are just now with the spread of the disease more or less controlled.
In the diagram of 400 dots the risk looks very slight when looked at as a whole and the dots are static but things don't look so great if you are one of the dots surrounding the black one.
 Once the dots start moving about you have a much increased chance of meeting a black one.
You need to be able to find, follow and isolate the black dots before you let the dots start moving again or the spread of the virus will take off again.
How well it can spread will depend on how many people have already acquired some form of immunity. The Manchester University study (see link I posted previously) suggested that at least one quarter of the UK population has already had an encounter with the virus and I wonder if that's an underestimate. Here's one person who can't figure out when his encounter was https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52762939 but perhaps he didn't read this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449. Some retesting (if samples weren't chucked away) might well confirm that the virus was here before people were looking for (or had the capabiity to identify) the virus. The French did a retest which confirmed a case there in December https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554 .

So why, if the virus was here a month or so earlier than officially thought, why did it take so long to cause a big spike in sick people (the excess deaths only appeared from mid-March)? My hypothesis is that it was initially concentrated among the younger and more healthy people who would be more likely to be mixing during mid-winter.

JimSh

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #746 on: May 24, 2020, 08:26:14 PM »

How well it can spread will depend on how many people have already acquired some form of immunity. The Manchester University study (see link I posted previously) suggested that at least one quarter of the UK population has already had an encounter with the virus and I wonder if that's an underestimate. Here's one person who can't figure out when his encounter was https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52762939 but perhaps he didn't read this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449. Some retesting (if samples weren't chucked away) might well confirm that the virus was here before people were looking for (or had the capabiity to identify) the virus. The French did a retest which confirmed a case there in December https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554 .

So why, if the virus was here a month or so earlier than officially thought, why did it take so long to cause a big spike in sick people (the excess deaths only appeared from mid-March)? My hypothesis is that it was initially concentrated among the younger and more healthy people who would be more likely to be mixing during mid-winter.
Other studies estimate  the acquired immunity much lower. We will only know when widespread antibody testing becomes available.
The BBC medical correspondent Fergus Walsh would presumably be aware of other BBC articles.
Even if 25% had acquired immunity it's still a long way  short of the 70% or so required to impart herd immunity.
This would mean that approximately twice as many people would have to acquire immunity as have acquired it  up to now.
Does this mean we have to have a further twice as many die as have died so far?
Probably not if the old and vulnerable could be protected (but this hasn't worked out well so far and there's always the chance of leaks) and infection restricted to the young and resilient.

How long would it take to reach about 70% immunity?
Presumably the rate of spread will slow as more people become immune.

We don't yet know if people with antibodies have immunity or how long immunity would last.

All in all I'm not convinced that this is a viable strategy.
I think I would prefer the strategy outlined in the three articles I've posted where the initial peak is "hammered" down until the transmission  rate is well below 1 and then gradually release the lockdown keeping it monitored so that it remains below 1 decreasiing or increasing restrictions as appropriate until a vaccine is available.
This however requires constant monitoring by testing tracking and tracing.
To embark on a release of restrictions without a reliable monitoring system in place (as our government appears to be about to do) is madness unless their intention is to cull the old and infirm (and a sizable number of the not so old as well.)
« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 08:31:29 PM by JimSh »

Jocko

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #747 on: May 24, 2020, 08:38:56 PM »
Pascal Soriot, chief executive of AstraZeneca, was on Andrew Marr this morning and he was saying they are in a rush to test the new vaccine before there are not enough cases to test it on. They are having to look to Russia and Brazil to carry out tests as the UK is fast running out of infected people to make testing effective.
They cannot vaccinate someone then expose them to the virus. The scientists have just to let the vaccinated and control group go out into the community and see how many get infected. And the chances of that happening get less and less each day.
Perhaps when the second peak comes.

madasafish

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #748 on: May 25, 2020, 04:53:27 AM »
"Doctors condemn secrecy over false negative Covid-19 tests
Medical research has found that as many as 29% of swab tests produce the wrong result"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/25/doctors-condemn-secrecy-over-false-negative-covid-19-tests

Jocko

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #749 on: May 25, 2020, 05:26:53 PM »
Just watching the DC interview. Was he on OJs defense team?

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