Author Topic: End of the all petrol jazz  (Read 1436 times)

peteo48

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2020, 10:27:45 AM »
Of course the other issue with the Mk4 Jazz is that it will mark the end of the manual gear change and that might deter some buyers as well.

To be fair, though, people who prefer manual gearboxes might have to get real. They are on their way out. All BEVs are in effect gearbox free operating with a single reduction gear. The new Jazz has no gearbox in the traditional sense of the word (that new system already available on the hybrid CRV).

Part of my thinking in getting my current car, apart from the financial inducements, was on the basis that I would be keeping it for at least 5 years. As we move to the end of ICE car production (and I think most manufacturers won't want to be caught with their pants down so I doubt many ICE cars will be available new after 2030) it will be interesting to see what the market value of the last few ICE cars, of any brand, will be. They will either be worth little more than scrap or the opposite may occur - people may want to remain members of the ICE club for as long as possible.

MartinJG

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #16 on: February 25, 2020, 11:00:53 AM »
Think VHS video format back in the last century. I recall Sony Betamax was considered to be the better format but was too expensive so not adopted and Sony lost out there on R&D costs. Back to EV battery swaps. At the risk of being overly simplistic, the way I see it is rather than filling your fuel tank, you simply replace the battery. So, let's just say it costs 30 to fill a Jazz tank and you get 400 miles using fibometer figures. Imagine the future scenario. You get a battery low warning so you head for the nearest fuel station, although you would prefer Shell because they currently have the best prices and best nationwide battery backup service in case of failure. You drive in and some tech attendant opens the battery compartment (boot?) removes the old one and slots in the replacement. Since batteries are heavy, he uses a special bit of equipment designed for the job.  However, battery technology is improving all the time so they will get smaller and lighter over time. At some point in the future, the battery tech guy is made redundant because he is no longer required simply because even 'Victoria Beckham' can replace a battery without damaging those precious finger nails. Can we replace the calorific value of a typical tank of fuel today. No. The range is limited but the starters will be in town where emissions in high population belts is a priority, the average mileage covered is next to nothing and there is no shortage of fuel stations. Technology will gradually extend to us 'Hicks in the countryside'. On cost, let's say we live in a free economy, a big if for all those doubters and closet commies :). As with all free economies, the balance of supply and demand is the solution in itself and initiative, enterprise and commercial gain will provide the answers. Think Friedman economics rather than Keynes.

I think that just about covers it.

PS -  I guess it is 'tuff' for those 5 fillers although I would not be surprised if they were catered for at some point.

PPS - Doubtless, the guvverment lackies will intervene for all the usual reasons, not least that juicy duty they extract along with fags and booze.

PPPS - I strongly suspect that the DIY chargers could well be outlawed on grounds of safety etc. even though the real reason is that the VAT we pay is peanuts compared with the duty extracted over the life of a typical driver.

« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 11:41:40 AM by MartinJG »

Downsizer

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2020, 11:55:14 AM »
Taxation can be used now to encourage the take-up of EV technology, helping to clean the air in cities.  However, once I/C engines are banned and our behaviour has been changed, politicians will see battery top-up or swapping as a very tempting taxation opportunity.

Jocko

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #18 on: February 25, 2020, 01:30:00 PM »
In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes

madasafish

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #19 on: February 25, 2020, 01:35:35 PM »
I think it is quite possible and feasible that we will see a scenario in the future where battery 'top ups' are purchased at your local fuel station. They already have the facilities and logistical advantages in place to provide a retail service and a ready prepared fast charge 'battery pack swap' makes sense to me for a number of reasons. Much of the recharging could be carried out overnight at lower rates at a special facility rather than just going up in smoke at the power stations and would simply be delivered to the fuel station. Clearly, the manufacturers will have to come to an industry standard generic specification. I am sure Shell 'Et Al' will be delighted to oblige. What is more, subject to the usual stringent safety standards, they will be forced to compete both in terms of price and quality/technology. Seems really quite straightforward to me. I see no sensible reason why this country could not be at the forefront of such a logical development.

Batteries are currently NOT interchangeable. There are no plans to do so for obvious reaons:
They are very heavy 100kg + to over 250kg
They are an integral part of the car integrated into the structure..

If batteries were modular, designed to be chaged and mounted on a rail system so they could be slid in and out on  a motorised system (manual systems will not work due to the weight)  and tested before they are replaced  ( a faulty battery will be expensive to repair and unchargeable), then your proposal is possible...  Otherwise it's pie in the sky.

MartinJG

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #20 on: February 25, 2020, 02:23:56 PM »
I think it is quite possible and feasible that we will see a scenario in the future where battery 'top ups' are purchased at your local fuel station. They already have the facilities and logistical advantages in place to provide a retail service and a ready prepared fast charge 'battery pack swap' makes sense to me for a number of reasons. Much of the recharging could be carried out overnight at lower rates at a special facility rather than just going up in smoke at the power stations and would simply be delivered to the fuel station. Clearly, the manufacturers will have to come to an industry standard generic specification. I am sure Shell 'Et Al' will be delighted to oblige. What is more, subject to the usual stringent safety standards, they will be forced to compete both in terms of price and quality/technology. Seems really quite straightforward to me. I see no sensible reason why this country could not be at the forefront of such a logical development.

Batteries are currently NOT interchangeable. There are no plans to do so for obvious reaons:
They are very heavy 100kg + to over 250kg
They are an integral part of the car integrated into the structure..

If batteries were modular, designed to be chaged and mounted on a rail system so they could be slid in and out on  a motorised system (manual systems will not work due to the weight)  and tested before they are replaced  ( a faulty battery will be expensive to repair and unchargeable), then your proposal is possible...  Otherwise it's pie in the sky.


I think most of us know this but the world does not stand still despite the best efforts of those with a vested interest in inertia. They said much the same thing about Henry Ford. The motor car would never catch on, it was just too noisy etc. Funny old world...

culzean

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #21 on: February 25, 2020, 02:49:17 PM »
This is interesting, and what I have said for a long time - potential buyers are not being told the whole story on battery life and range - I guess Tesla can offer 8 year unlimited mileage warranty because it is factored into the sale price of the car, when the BEV market starts to get competitive and more realistic on price ( ie prices normal punters can afford ) will long warranties be offered ?

Bit like having a 10 gallon fuel tank that you need to keep above 3 gallons but below 8 otherwise it gets damaged,  and if you fill it too quickly it gets damaged..... so most of the time you have to fill over many hours, even though fast petrol pumps are available you can only use them occasionally, and most of the time you have to dribble fuel in.

« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 06:50:07 PM by culzean »
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monkeydave

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #22 on: February 25, 2020, 05:06:57 PM »
Of course the other issue with the Mk4 Jazz is that it will mark the end of the manual gear change and that might deter some buyers as well.

To be fair, though, people who prefer manual gearboxes might have to get real. They are on their way out. All BEVs are in effect gearbox free operating with a single reduction gear. The new Jazz has no gearbox in the traditional sense of the word (that new system already available on the hybrid CRV).

Part of my thinking in getting my current car, apart from the financial inducements, was on the basis that I would be keeping it for at least 5 years. As we move to the end of ICE car production (and I think most manufacturers won't want to be caught with their pants down so I doubt many ICE cars will be available new after 2030) it will be interesting to see what the market value of the last few ICE cars, of any brand, will be. They will either be worth little more than scrap or the opposite may occur - people may want to remain members of the ICE club for as long as possible.

seeing as if you have a petrol car before the cut off you can drive it till 2050 so will be worth more than scrap to people who dont want to pay over double for a lesser car

John Ratsey

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #23 on: February 25, 2020, 09:15:54 PM »
Batteries are currently NOT interchangeable. There are no plans to do so for obvious reaons:
They are very heavy 100kg + to over 250kg
They are an integral part of the car integrated into the structure..
There's a picture of a Tesla battery pack at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/3705440/ . It is effectively the floor pan. Reasons for this are probably (i) get the centre of gravity as low as possible and (ii) better protection of the lithium in the event of a collision.

Back on topic, I think there would be no commercial sense in continuing to sell a petrol Mk. 3 Jazz in Europe once the Mk. 4 has arrived. Honda needs to pull a few tricks to minimise the EU penalty if average emissions exceed 95 g/km CO2 and the Japanese tend to pay by the rules whereas the European manufacturers try to game the system (eg dieselgate). The Mk 4 Jazz is (IIRC) over the limit at 107 g/km (for comparison the Corolla hybrid is listed as 106 g/km). The latest Which? included some data showing that the tighter emissions requirements of Euro 6D-temp and 6d plus the WLTP testing have combined to push up the CO2 numbers. Part of the reason seems to be the weight of extra equipment for emissions reduction. 95 per gram over the limit for each vehicle should provide a big incentive to bring the CO2 down. It's either that we all have to downsize or there must be more PHEVs and BEVs in the pipeline (or all of them).

And as for wanting a manual gearbox, the hybrids will have various other settings for drivers to play with which will involve trade-offs between economy and performance.

MartinJG

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #24 on: February 25, 2020, 09:19:44 PM »
This is interesting, and what I have said for a long time - potential buyers are not being told the whole story on battery life and range - I guess Tesla can offer 8 year unlimited mileage warranty because it is factored into the sale price of the car, when the BEV market starts to get competitive and more realistic on price ( ie prices normal punters can afford ) will long warranties be offered ?

Bit like having a 10 gallon fuel tank that you need to keep above 3 gallons but below 8 otherwise it gets damaged,  and if you fill it too quickly it gets damaged..... so most of the time you have to fill over many hours, even though fast petrol pumps are available you can only use them occasionally, and most of the time you have to dribble fuel in.


Interesting. We all use rechargeable batteries these days and I always understood that due to 'memory cell' cycling, quick and short recharges actually shorten the life of a bog standard lithium battery and that the recommended treatment is to periodically run them right down followed by a complete full charge to 'exercise' the battery. My battery charger has a recycle facility on it which does this very thing.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 09:21:49 PM by MartinJG »

John Ratsey

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #25 on: February 25, 2020, 10:09:21 PM »
Interesting. We all use rechargeable batteries these days and I always understood that due to 'memory cell' cycling, quick and short recharges actually shorten the life of a bog standard lithium battery and that the recommended treatment is to periodically run them right down followed by a complete full charge to 'exercise' the battery. My battery charger has a recycle facility on it which does this very thing.
The charge memory problem relates to nickel-based batteries and that chemistry is still dominant for household rechargeables. Lithium batteries survive longest if the extremes of charging are avoided - most of the damage to the chemistry occurs when either cramming in the last 10 to 15% of charge (which is why most devices change to a slower charge mode when the battery is nearly full) and sucking out the bottom 10 to 15% of charge. I think there are device manufacturers who configure the electronics so that the available charge range is reduced in order to improve the battery longevity.

richardfrost

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #26 on: February 26, 2020, 09:16:54 AM »
My view, quite simply, is that electric is the future, batteries are not.

We are going to have to go with fuel cell or some other rapidly refillable technology, supplemented by solar and even the ability to pick up power from the road somehow.

Trams and trolley buses eh! What a daft idea. Glad we got rid of those things!

I have asked my good friend who is a Professor working in the field of car power electronics what he thinks the future might be. I'll get back to you.

culzean

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #27 on: February 26, 2020, 10:01:00 AM »
Interesting. We all use rechargeable batteries these days and I always understood that due to 'memory cell' cycling, quick and short recharges actually shorten the life of a bog standard lithium battery and that the recommended treatment is to periodically run them right down followed by a complete full charge to 'exercise' the battery. My battery charger has a recycle facility on it which does this very thing.
The charge memory problem relates to nickel-based batteries and that chemistry is still dominant for household rechargeables. Lithium batteries survive longest if the extremes of charging are avoided - most of the damage to the chemistry occurs when either cramming in the last 10 to 15% of charge (which is why most devices change to a slower charge mode when the battery is nearly full) and sucking out the bottom 10 to 15% of charge. I think there are device manufacturers who configure the electronics so that the available charge range is reduced in order to improve the battery longevity.

Yeah, nickel cadmium was the worst, nickel metal hydride were much better - but the whole thing about lithium based batteries is that they do not have a memory - but I agree with you John that the future may be electric but not so much battery based.

I think they discovered the limits of Ni-cad  batteries in early satellites where they had solar panels that continually charged the batteries to the same place and the batteries would then not discharge properly even though they had power in there they would not release it.  Early Nicad and NMH batteries in laptops and phones also used to suffer 'bridging' by the growth of dendrites ( like stalactites ) between positive and negative plates which shorted out the cells,  we used to cure them by discharging a capacitor into the battery to blow up these dendrites - then deep discharge and recharge - lasted for a while longer.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel%E2%80%93cadmium_battery
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Jocko

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #28 on: February 26, 2020, 10:41:01 AM »
There is currently huge research in battery technology so we can only hope something comes off it. From what I have read, 100% charge of the battery as indicated by the vehicle is not 100% of the battery capacity. The electronic control stops it short. Same with the discharge cycle at the other end. That was how Tesla was able to increase the range of US vehicles trying to escape the hurricane. The opened up the range to allow the battery to use the top and bottom charge.
The Porsche Taycan can add 100 miles range with a 20-minute charge. It uses a higher voltage system and with a suitable charger can charge very quickly. However, there are only 4 of those chargers in the UK.
Battery electric will never work for all users but for very many private owners what we have now is not far away for what will be required.

MartinJG

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Re: End of the all petrol jazz
« Reply #29 on: February 26, 2020, 11:42:37 AM »

'I see no sensible reason why this country could not be at the forefront of such a logical development.'

In reference to the above in my earlier 'speech'. I say this because the Brits are/were notorious for their 'Heath Robinson' approach to improvising and squeezing every last drop out of existing technology/infrastructure if it means we can avoid spending more than necessary, and we lay claim to some fine engineers over the years. We managed to squeeze a ridiculous amount of life out of the Austin/Morris based Mini engine A+ to the point of embarrassment while our German and Japanese friends had already re invented the wheel several times over before we reluctantly conceded that it was a little long in the tooth and due for retirement.... :(


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