Author Topic: WTO rules?  (Read 24118 times)

culzean

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #270 on: February 14, 2019, 09:52:54 AM »
I see Germany narrowly avoided going into recession, with zero growth in the last quarter. If it is anything like the UK government's figures they were probably well massaged to avoid a negative number.

The Chinese are best at massaging trade figures because they have centralised control of everything and heavy censorship - they are still a hybrid capitalist / communist dictatorship who want to have 'best of both worlds'.
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

richardfrost

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #271 on: February 14, 2019, 10:29:57 AM »
Do German think tanks have any more credibility than UK ones?
Don't know about their Think Tanks, but their Tank Tanks used to be pretty good.

JimSh

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #272 on: February 14, 2019, 12:03:24 PM »
Your main objective would appear to be to damage the EU as much as possible rather than to benefit the UK.
A hard Brexit will hurt the EU but will hurt the UK much worse. Why make everybody suffer?
The EU will not back down over its four freedoms.
Perhaps you could explain why the collapse of the EU would benefit the UK?

I am not saying damage the EU, ( it can do that very well on its own) - but the EU sells much more to UK ( £95billion more in goods,  but we have a surplus of £28billion in services - so overall deficit £67billion in 2017) The LCH handle vast majority of Euro transactions ( something like Euro 900 billion per day),  which involves standing surety for any defaults by buyer or sellers in contracts - which needs a massive amount of financial muscle that the City of London has but nowhere in the EU has because their financial system is not fit for purpose - the costs to EU business would be far greater if the EU tried to take over the clearing,  you would have expected Frankfurt and Paris to have attracted service businesses from UK by now ( they have been trying hard enough ) but it just ain't happening .

The Euro clearing is why the EU has drafted emergency powers to keep access to UK financial system ( services ) in event of no-deal.

The EU think they are the only game in town, but they are rapidly shrinking both in world trade and influence - they need a reality check and the EU business leaders will give them one - as I said they will bang together the heads of Drunckers, Barmier and Verhofstagger  when push comes to shove,  telling them to forget the politics because they need the business.

If it had not been for sore-loser remain chatter and pulling in the opposite direction we would have had a deal months ago,  but the opposition within the UK emboldened the EU that if they cooked up the worst possible deal they could persuade the UK to not leave. But despite mother Theresa being a remainer who still wants to stay in EU she has not found it so easy because she has one eye on the ballot box and knows that if she does get a deal she will attract millions of voters who are totally fed up with labour party disarray and their MPs trying to frustrate Brexit, despite 70% of labour constituencies voting leave.  The labour party is being pushed by the members ( who have been well and truly infiltrated by remainers) to frustrate Brexit but in the process many true labour supporters are leaving the party ( about 150,000 at last count ) - labour leaders need to realise the difference between party members and voters, a few hundred thousand members do not have enough election votes to make any difference compared to the millions of voters who are being driven away..

Thanks for the reply.
I’ve never bought into your first argument. It just implies that we rely on the EU to supply most of our goods.
The banking  business was mainly in London due to the UK being in the EU. (passporting) . If we leave the EU that business will be more easily done through mainland Europe.  I would imagine the European financial institutions are just as capable as the city of London.
The EU business leaders have accepted right from the start of negotiations that their profits are not as important as the unity of the EU.
The whole sorry mess has been about, first Cameron and then May trying to keep control of their party and not thinking through the consequences.

culzean

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #273 on: February 14, 2019, 01:08:04 PM »
Thanks for the reply.
I’ve never bought into your first argument. It just implies that we rely on the EU to supply most of our goods.
The banking  business was mainly in London due to the UK being in the EU. (passporting) . If we leave the EU that business will be more easily done through mainland Europe.  I would imagine the European financial institutions are just as capable as the city of London.
The EU business leaders have accepted right from the start of negotiations that their profits are not as important as the unity of the EU.
The whole sorry mess has been about, first Cameron and then May trying to keep control of their party and not thinking through the consequences.

You have the trade gap wrong way around, we don't have to buy their goods but are a 'good customer' because they need and like selling to UK,  we have the biggest profit margin for many companies in EU that sell to us.

As for your second point about the City of London - Europe has nothing like the City and it would take decades and a lot of money to even get within spitting distance.  London and New York take it in turns to get top world financial centre crown,  there is only a whisker in it.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-6258533/Trillions-reasons-EU-needs-deal-Bank-England-warns-risk-European-lenders.html

 Europes banks are broken,  the whole financial sector is a huge toxic mess. The whole point you make about capable EU banks is very far from the truth,  Deutsche Bank ( Germanys largest) has been downgraded to BBB and the ECB is funding the whole sagging Eurozone single-handedly - but how long can they continue ?

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-5796597/ALEX-BRUMMER-Eurozones-broken-banks.html
« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 01:12:06 PM by culzean »
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richardfrost

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #274 on: February 14, 2019, 01:37:21 PM »
As for your second point about the City of London - Europe has nothing like the City and it would take decades and a lot of money to even get within spitting distance.  London and New York take it in turns to get top world financial centre crown,  there is only a whisker in it.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-6258533/Trillions-reasons-EU-needs-deal-Bank-England-warns-risk-European-lenders.html

 Europes banks are broken,  the whole financial sector is a huge toxic mess. The whole point you make about capable EU banks is very far from the truth,  Deutsche Bank ( Germanys largest) has been downgraded to BBB and the ECB is funding the whole sagging Eurozone single-handedly - but how long can they continue ?

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-5796597/ALEX-BRUMMER-Eurozones-broken-banks.html

You know,I respect your knowledge, expertise and research on most things, but I work in Banking and have done for 30 years. On this, I believe differently. If Brexit happens, you won't believe how quickly the banking markets will change. Germany will rise and London will dip. There is no one I know in banking who thinks otherwise, and quietly, they are making plans accordingly.

Just to add, Banks are the most ruthless money making machines in history. Look how they have looked after themselves over the last ten years, despite increasing regulation. And the people in their Treasury departments, where the trading and the real money is made, are more ruthless than ever. They will go where the banks go, and the banks will follow the money.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 02:01:37 PM by richardfrost »

JimSh

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #275 on: February 14, 2019, 03:12:04 PM »
Thanks for the reply.
I’ve never bought into your first argument. It just implies that we rely on the EU to supply most of our goods.
The banking  business was mainly in London due to the UK being in the EU. (passporting) . If we leave the EU that business will be more easily done through mainland Europe.  I would imagine the European financial institutions are just as capable as the city of London.
The EU business leaders have accepted right from the start of negotiations that their profits are not as important as the unity of the EU.
The whole sorry mess has been about, first Cameron and then May trying to keep control of their party and not thinking through the consequences.

You have the trade gap wrong way around, we don't have to buy their goods but are a 'good customer' because they need and like selling to UK,  we have the biggest profit margin for many companies in EU that sell to us.

 

Here is a list of the countries and organisations to which the EU has access.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

Here is an article showing the present state of the UK's attempts at signing trade agreements

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47213842

The EU has many more outlets for trade than the UK has sources.
Dr Fox will need to work very hard in the next month.
Besides we will still source much of our goods through the EU
« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 03:21:42 PM by JimSh »

Jocko

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #276 on: February 14, 2019, 04:06:05 PM »
I watched an interview with Liam Fox who said that most of the trade deals were ready to be signed but could not be signed until we left the EU. May just be BS, but it does make sense and it would be very awkward, not to say damaging, to his reputation and future career if it was BS.

JimSh

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« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 05:01:39 PM by JimSh »

sparky Paul

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #278 on: February 14, 2019, 05:07:32 PM »
May just be BS

More than likely

but it does make sense and it would be very awkward, not to say damaging, to his reputation and future career if it was BS.

Damage what reputation? Fox isn't fit to hold a ministerial role.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-cabinet-liam-fox-disgraced-mp-2011-defence-secretary-boris-johnson-back-into-frontline-a7136236.html

culzean

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #279 on: February 14, 2019, 05:10:47 PM »
There will not be any large scale movement of business to EU because it has its own massive problems that dwarf Brexit.  It is a hostile place to do financial business and its regulations have affected the operations of London based financial institutions.

The Euro is on life support and although it suits German export businesses because it is valued lower than a currency specific to Germany would be, its value is kept artificially low by southern European economies, but the currency is still too highly valued for their economies.  It is these massive imbalances that will finally finish off the Euro, and it makes Eurozone a risky place for investors.

http://worldmag.uk.com/european-union-history/
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Barky

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #280 on: February 14, 2019, 05:54:40 PM »
Reports coming out today that Theresa May is going to prevent no deal happening whatever happens so the already dead prospect of WTO could well just have been a empty threat on UK by UK after all?

WTO option as hoped for by Tories has as most will know already been blocked by WTO members
« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 05:58:21 PM by Barky »

Barky

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #281 on: February 14, 2019, 06:03:13 PM »
I watched an interview with Liam Fox who said that most of the trade deals were ready to be signed but could not be signed until we left the EU. May just be BS, but it does make sense and it would be very awkward, not to say damaging, to his reputation and future career if it was BS.
It's Liam Fox so it's guaranteed BS, they won't be ready to sign - just ready to start negotiations lasting x number of years with clauses that won't be liked by UK & anything with China has just his a big set back thanks to unfortunate threatening words of Gavin Williamson MP towards China

JimSh

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #282 on: February 14, 2019, 06:54:16 PM »
Pots and Kettles.
No 10 accuses Labour of putting party interests ahead of national interest

Downing Street has released this statement about the result. A spokesman said:

Jeremy Corbyn yet again put partisan considerations ahead of the national interest – and yet again, by voting against the government’s motion, he is in effect voting to make no deal more likely.

While we didn’t secure the support of the Commons this evening, the prime minister continues to believe, and the debate itself indicated, that far from objecting to securing changes to the backstop that will allow us to leave with a deal, there was a concern from some Conservative colleagues about taking no deal off the table at this stage.

The motion on 29 January remains the only one the House of Commons has passed expressing what it does want – and that is legally binding changes to address concerns about the backstop. The government will continue to pursue this with the EU to ensure we leave on time on 29 March.

JimSh

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #283 on: February 18, 2019, 11:13:25 AM »
What are they playing at?
First Williamson rattles his sabre at the Chinese and now Hunt and Fox insult the Japanese.
https://www.ft.com/content/9cd62bde-32ba-11e9-bd3a-8b2a211d90d5?fbclid=IwAR1CTjPSbrQQbOV7w4a-010AeebCA0RGzSFmwleSdgNWRxRNtqrhXfyhE_g

Sorry, I see my link is behind a paywall.

   
   "The UK’s latest attempt to persuade Japan to agree a quick post-Brexit trade deal has backfired after officials in Tokyo reacted with dismay at British tactics.

Theresa May’s government is already battling to mend relations with China, after Beijing cancelled a key trade meeting with chancellor Philip Hammond in protest at a UK pledge to send an aircraft carrier to the Pacific."

The gist of the article is that the UK wants a quick deal with the Japanese post Brexit essentially wanting to roll over the deal the Japanese have just made with the EU and implies that it is the Japanese who are dragging their feet.
They just need to pick a fight with the Americans now.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 11:25:23 AM by JimSh »

JimSh

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #284 on: February 18, 2019, 11:48:20 AM »

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