Author Topic: WTO rules?  (Read 6581 times)

Jocko

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WTO rules?
« on: January 15, 2019, 08:45:27 PM »
Looks like we are heading to WTO Rules now. Don't think that would be the disaster that many are predicting. It would certainly get the EU clambering for a Free Trade Agreement.

culzean

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2019, 08:59:39 PM »
Looks like we are heading to WTO Rules now. Don't think that would be the disaster that many are predicting. It would certainly get the EU clambering for a Free Trade Agreement.

EU and Varadka ( aided by Tony B Liar ) really overplayed the Irish border importance - and the backstop is really what stopped the deal getting through parliament tonight - so 29th March here we come and WTO on the 30th.

Europe sliding into recession as we speak ( including Germany ) so no deal is the last thing they need - really will be the last straw for them and their precious Euro.
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

peteo48

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2019, 09:27:35 PM »
The problem, as I see it, is the erection of tariffs and customs controls where none currently exist. This will adversely affect the firms that export to the EU - 44% of our total export performance.

Very few countries trade on WTO rules alone. Trade deals and organisations exist across the globe. The other thing that often gets missed is that we will also cease to benefit from the trade deals that the EU has with other countries such as Canada and more recently Japan.

We have to leave the EU in line with the referendum but we need to strike a deal that allows for business to continue unfettered by new customs restrictions and tariffs.

123Drive!

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2019, 10:10:23 PM »
Hopefully we can buy all those Honda and Toyota that are out sold in Japan which aren't allowed due to EU rules!

Jocko

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2019, 08:33:45 AM »
There is no reason why the EU and UK cannot agree a temporary "no tariff" agreement from 30th March, until a permanent trade deal is agreed. The EU already has "no tariff/no trade deal" trade with over 40 countries worldwide. And after all, it is every bit in the EU's interest as it is the UK's not to immediately introduce tariffs.
With regard to "Project Fear II", yesterday afternoon the financial sector were forecasting Sterling crashing if there was a large vote against the Deal, and what happened? The pound rose on the back of the news.
If there is a Peoples Vote I will vote emphatically "Leave", and irrespective of the outcome I will never vote in another election for the remainder of what days I have left. Politicians and the "Establishment" cannot ride rough shod over the democratic will of the British people. Even if Brexit goes ahead, the SNP will never get my vote again, whether it is in a General Election, Scottish Election, Council Election or Indy Ref 2.

peteo48

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2019, 10:37:05 AM »
There is no reason why the EU and UK cannot agree a temporary "no tariff" agreement from 30th March, until a permanent trade deal is agreed. The EU already has "no tariff/no trade deal" trade with over 40 countries worldwide. And after all, it is every bit in the EU's interest as it is the UK's not to immediately introduce tariffs.
With regard to "Project Fear II", yesterday afternoon the financial sector were forecasting Sterling crashing if there was a large vote against the Deal, and what happened? The pound rose on the back of the news.
If there is a Peoples Vote I will vote emphatically "Leave", and irrespective of the outcome I will never vote in another election for the remainder of what days I have left. Politicians and the "Establishment" cannot ride rough shod over the democratic will of the British people. Even if Brexit goes ahead, the SNP will never get my vote again, whether it is in a General Election, Scottish Election, Council Election or Indy Ref 2.


Even though I voted remain, I am against a second referendum. You can't keep asking the question until you get the result you want. Let's get an arrangement that allows wealth creators to go on creating wealth.

culzean

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2019, 02:20:04 PM »
First of all this government will never offer a second referendum because the would be a green light for Scotland to get anther one. 

The EU history is full of countries being told to vote again when they got the wrong answer the first time, the EU does not understand democracy and has put itself in an ideological straitjacket of its own making with its inflexibility, we cannot even get two political parties to agree, try that with 27+ countries. 2019 will be the year EU folds any way, we are the least of its problems.....
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

JimSh

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2019, 03:22:13 PM »
I'm afraid you guys are still living in a parallel universe to me.
However, I think the Daily Mash hits it on the head with this.

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/all-options-ruled-out-20190116181417

JimSh

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2019, 03:27:39 PM »

peteo48

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2019, 03:34:08 PM »
Here's another one:-
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/brexiters-told-to-try-walking-away-with-no-deal-in-everyday-life-and-see-how-that-works-for-them-20181121179706
Sorry i'm just trying to cheer myself up. :-[

I do know people in manufacturing who are genuinely fearful of no deal. We have a big Airbus factory near us (well just outside Chester) and they need frictionless trade to continue or Airbus might leave. They make the wings for the A380. These then go to Toulouse to be stuck on the plane.

I don't give a toss about the EU to be quite frank but I do want a deal that doesn't cause economic harm. It should be possible.

Jocko

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2019, 04:00:20 PM »
I'm afraid you guys are still living in a parallel universe to me.
However, I think the Daily Mash hits it on the head with this.

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/all-options-ruled-out-20190116181417

A bit like Schrödinger's cat?

Jocko

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #11 on: January 16, 2019, 04:07:08 PM »
I do know people in manufacturing who are genuinely fearful of no deal. We have a big Airbus factory near us (well just outside Chester) and they need frictionless trade to continue or Airbus might leave. They make the wings for the A380. These then go to Toulouse to be stuck on the plane.

I don't give a toss about the EU to be quite frank but I do want a deal that doesn't cause economic harm. It should be possible.
"Wings, for example, travel by barge along the River Dee from Broughton in North Wales to the Dee estuary, where they are loaded onto a large capacity roll-on/roll-off vessel. The craft is used to move aircraft sections by sea to the French port of Pauillac, near Bordeaux.
Here, the components are transferred to specially designed barges, which carry them on the penultimate part of their 95-km. voyage up Garonne River from Pauillac to Langon. Four river journeys are required to transport fuselage sections and the horizontal tail plane of one aircraft. In Langon, aircraft sections are transferred to outsized-load trucks to complete their journey to Toulouse by road."

From Airbus' site. Hardly friction-less at the moment. Don't imagine customs checks would add much to the time scale!

culzean

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #12 on: January 16, 2019, 04:11:39 PM »
Here's another one:-
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/brexiters-told-to-try-walking-away-with-no-deal-in-everyday-life-and-see-how-that-works-for-them-20181121179706
Sorry i'm just trying to cheer myself up. :-[

The only time walking away without a deal does not work when the people you are dealing with are the only supplier and have a monopoly or a cartel.  This is clearly not the case with the EU.  I have walked away from many energy suppliers and ISPs during the last 20 years simply because their deal is not a good one for me.  There are many people who want to trade with Great Britain,  in fact as global brands go GB or Great Britain is right there at the top of the pile.

Project 'Brexit fear' is a rerun of project 'Euro fear', almost word for word - look back at the elite who said that not joining the Eurozone would be a disaster for UK, the pound would plummet, trade would be affected, investment in the UK would drop,  house prices would drop  etc. etc. and overlay it on project Brexit no-deal fear - don't be surprised if you get a strong feeling of deja-vu....  And don't mention the millenium bug, which was used to scare many people into parting with a fortune by 'project millenium bug fear' - others spent nothing and the millenium dawned - and no planes fell out of the sky,  nobody died, trade carried on as normal,  the banking system did not crash .....

Inward investment in UK still continues apace https://www.economist.com/britain/2018/04/07/why-foreign-investment-into-britain-remains-so-strong

When Boeing heard that Airbus may leave UK they said, 'hurry up then, we want to move in' - but don't forget that BAE is a big part of Airbus,  Sweden also keen to develop new aircraft with UK ( and we should consider it after Germany pulled out of Eurofighter Typhoon quite early in the project and left UK / BAE to carry on with all the development work).   

Project fear was coined by Peter Shaw in 1975 - even then he could see the 'European political project' for exactly what it was ( look at the video of his speech at Oxford embedded in following article).

https://labourheartlands.com/the-month-when-project-fear-became-project-hysteria/
« Last Edit: January 16, 2019, 04:20:33 PM by culzean »
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Jocko

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2019, 04:30:19 PM »
In 2017 the EU imported £95 Billion more goods into the UK than we did into the EU (House of Commons Library). Unless the EU wanted to cut off their nose to spite their face, by punishing the UK for daring to leave, then it would be in everyone's interest to trade tariff free. Otherwise the EU would pay £20 Billion a years more in tariffs to the UK than we would to the EU (approximate figure).

Barky

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Re: WTO rules?
« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2019, 04:44:48 PM »
WTO would be an utter disaster & is already blocked as @ least 20 of it's members have already made moves to veto UK joining in a way that avoids big penalties

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