Author Topic: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car...  (Read 261 times)

richardfrost

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Why you have (probably) already bought your last car...
« on: October 10, 2018, 02:40:52 PM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45786690

An interesting read. What it doesn't say, and the reason I have bought my last car, is that the rate of change in vehicle technology is increasing so rapidly that buying becomes a stupid option as reselling becomes more difficult. Resale values will plummet eventually. It would be like buying a colour TV back in the late 60s and 70s. Rental was the only sensible option back then as the technology matured.

I am talking about 5 years out of course. So when I come to change cars in two or three years, leasing will probably be the most sensible option.

If you read the article, it foretells of a time when humans aran't allowed to drive. Well what will happen to the pleasure drive? The Sunday trip to the countryside. All humans will be Sunday drivers then!

madasafish

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Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car...
« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2018, 03:07:42 PM »
I have read that BBC article. If you look at the number of US workers - 128 million -  and the need to travel vast distances to/from work -  then even with taxi sharing 45 million taxis are going to be very busy at morning and evening rush hour..

And the forecast reduction in cars from c 120million now to 45million in 10 years - assumes the only cars produced will be auto taxis.. and all other cars will be scrapped.. even the ones made whilst the production of e taxis is scaling up..

A 10 minutes think about logistics and practicality suggest the article's numbers are about as convincing as a used car salesman ..

I could be much ruder..

Rory

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Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car...
« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2018, 03:13:10 PM »
Shame on the BBC - it's just 'click-bait'.   

The last line even says "But seriously, I've deliberately put these arguments forcefully to prompt debate and we want to hear what you think."

richardfrost

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Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car...
« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2018, 04:44:21 PM »
Shame on the BBC - it's just 'click-bait'.   

The last line even says "But seriously, I've deliberately put these arguments forcefully to prompt debate and we want to hear what you think."

That line was a dead giveaway. I won't be outright buying another car, as I said, but not for the reasons in the article per se. More the advances in tech and the disposability of many modern cars. Maybe I will lose the Toyota and keep the 13 year old, written down to zero, Jazz.

It's the same reason I don't buy too many Blu-Rays, DVDs or CDs. Buy a licence for the music instead and access it wherever and whenever you want.

Jocko

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Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car...
« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2018, 07:30:13 PM »
I have read that BBC article. If you look at the number of US workers - 128 million -  and the need to travel vast distances to/from work -  then even with taxi sharing 45 million taxis are going to be very busy at morning and evening rush hour..
I am not arguing against the points you made, but most workers don't travel "vast distances" for work. Most live within an hours travel from their place of employ. 128 million people don't travel to and from work in the morning and evening rush hour. Many of these people will be shift workers or part time workers. Say half of them do travel morning and evening (I don't think it will such a large proportion but for the sake of argument!). How many currently use public transport? (In England only 62% use a car and the proportion travelling into city centres will be far less) Then if you look at the number that car share the figures fall a bit more.
You are then down to about 40 million journeys morning and night. So each of your 45 million taxis need to make one journey each.
Still not going to happen within 10 years, but it will happen sooner or later.

richardfrost

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Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car...
« Reply #5 on: October 10, 2018, 07:36:29 PM »
Travelling to work itself will be an anachronism before we know it. If a computer can safely drive a car autonomously, anywhere, there will be a whole load of other things it will be able to do soon also.

Jocko

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culzean

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Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car...
« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2018, 08:45:08 AM »
Travelling to work itself will be an anachronism before we know it. If a computer can safely drive a car autonomously, anywhere, there will be a whole load of other things it will be able to do soon also.

I remember when the internet first became available to general public, the headlines were no more traveling to work,  people will work from home, end of the rush hour etc. etc. - and what changed, zero, zilch.  Remember the paperless office,  well we use many of orders of magnitude more paper now than before computers and printers became available, offices are awash with paper despite concerted efforts to reduce usage.  I used to be engineering manager of a large pharmaceutical warehouse,  we used around 15,000 sheets of A4 paper a day printing invoices  that were loaded into delivery totes for pharmacies, despite the fact that they could have the invoices emailed to them**.  The effect of AI ( if it ever gets smart enough to replace humans,  and that is a big IF ) will be mass unemployment, does anyone think that is a good idea ' the devil finds work for idle hands'.  We have seen the extent of fraud connected with wireless and internet connected things controlled by easily hackable software,  imagine millions of idle hands hacking away because they have nothing better to do.

** we knew why,  they were going to print invoices at pharmacy anyway as a tick list to check the delivery, and they would rather we paid for the paper and ink than them ( 15 to 30 pages )- any shortages were listed on the invoice anyway beside their order number,  but they would still want a hard copy.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/12/are-we-going-too-fast-driverless-cars

In this article above when people do not have to drive their journey mileage increased by 76%, when people are freed from driving they will move out to the suburbs and commute more.

https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2013/02/why-people-chose-cars-even-when-metro-would-be-faster/4566/

The only predictable thing about humans is that you can never really predict their behaviour..

« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 09:38:12 AM by culzean »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

Jocko

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Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car...
« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2018, 09:23:14 AM »
It is interesting, the bit about the chauffeur driven cars. It was only 13 families and for a week, but I think if the experiment had been extended then most people would fall back into their old patterns, once the novelty had worn off. If I was given the luxury of a chauffeur driven car I'd probably go and visit my friends and relatives, if for no other reason than to show it off. It would probably entail trips in the evening and after dark, as they all work, so I would mimic the findings they found with the retirees. But by the second week I would use it less and by the end of the month I would be back to normal. Same as happens when you get a new car.

culzean

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Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car...
« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2018, 09:34:29 AM »
It is interesting, the bit about the chauffeur driven cars. It was only 13 families and for a week, but I think if the experiment had been extended then most people would fall back into their old patterns, once the novelty had worn off. If I was given the luxury of a chauffeur driven car I'd probably go and visit my friends and relatives, if for no other reason than to show it off. It would probably entail trips in the evening and after dark, as they all work, so I would mimic the findings they found with the retirees. But by the second week I would use it less and by the end of the month I would be back to normal. Same as happens when you get a new car.

I have read many studies that concluded that the effect of freeing people from driving while maintaining the convenience and privacy of a car (which many people value highly) would result in the car being used more,  and people would use the opportunity to move further out into the suburbs (where life is quieter and houses cheaper) and making their commute longer.....

Ever since railways were invented and commuting became faster people have moved further and further away from cities like London and 'dormitory towns' sprang up - raising house prices out of the reach of locals - now we have HS2 knocking 20 minutes off London to Birmingham ( that is 5B a minute) which will create similar problems in any town between London and Birmingham.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 10:01:27 AM by culzean »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

zzaj

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Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car...
« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2018, 10:17:24 AM »

Ever since railways were invented and commuting became faster people have moved further and further away from cities like London and 'dormitory towns' sprang up - raising house prices out of the reach of locals - now we have HS2 knocking 20 minutes off London to Birmingham ( that is 5B a minute) which will create similar problems in any town between London and Birmingham.

HS2 does't stop between "central" London and "central" Birmingham.........more's the problem. It is still going to be quicker to drive from suburban London to suburban Birmingham.

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