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Other Hondas & General Topics => Off Topic (Non-Honda) => Topic started by: Jocko on October 27, 2020, 07:13:56 AM

Title: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on October 27, 2020, 07:13:56 AM
As more and more parts of England go into Tier 3, Scotland is about to announce their Tier system. We will have five Tiers (SAGE has already admitted that Tier 3 is not strict enough) but as it is the whole of Scotland is already in a Tier 2/3 situation. For most of Scotland, pubs are already closed. You can go in for a "substantial meal" but no alcohol (so there is no real point in them opening). Pubs outside the central belt can serve alcohol until 6 pm, outdoors, but in Scotland in October? You'd be as well going down the "offey" and getting a couple of cans of super lager then joining the jakeys down the park. At least you would get a bit of company.
It looks as though Lanarkshire will go into Tier 4 from next week, pretty much total lockdown in all but name.
The north of England wants a route map out of lockdown, so here is my idea. Ten years from now once a vaccine has been found, and there is sufficient to go around and give everyone two doses a year (antibodies appears to drop off rapidly according to latest evidence from The Imperial College London) then they will come out of lockdown.
And as for levelling up across England. That will happen soon. When the south ends up in Tier 3 as well.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 27, 2020, 09:38:11 AM
We've just escaped tier 3 (England), for now. The south of the county (Nottingham, Rushcliffe, Broxtowe & Gedling) has been moved into tier 3, leaving us behind in tier 2. Most of my family are already in tier 3, over the border in South Yorkshire.

The case rate here has gone up from around 80 per 100,000 a few weeks ago, to 280+ on the latest figures, and is still increasing with tier 2 restrictions. As the data is a few days old when published, I think there's a fair chance that it's now heading over 350, which seems to be the trigger for tier 3, at least locally.

I can't see how tier 3 will work. It seems to slow things down, but it's certainly not reducing the overall numbers - the only advantage seems to be the additional financial support. It doesn't look like a long term solution to me - I can see a tier 4 coming soon.

As for compliance, I've watched neighbours on both sides of me break the rules on visitors since tier 2 was introduced, and one of them is an ex-police officer. One of the cheeky buggers parked their car outside my house yesterday, looked like they were visiting me!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on October 27, 2020, 10:34:56 AM
I think a lot of people are making things worse by being, frankly, bone headed. A friend put a post on Facebook a fortnight ago. He had gone to his local pub for an evening meal with his wife. It was clear that the table next to them - admittedly distanced, was occupied from people who clearly didn't come from the same household. They came in wearing masks as required but, once sat down, started animated conversation leaning in to each other across the table. When they left they put their masks back on but my friend saw them in the car park huddled together laughing and joking without masks.

Would we need lockdowns if people weren't so stupid?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 27, 2020, 11:31:21 AM

As for compliance, I've watched neighbours on both sides of me break the rules on visitors since tier 2 was introduced, and one of them is an ex-police officer.

Yes, it's all about compliance. Even bastions of the BBC are not above bending the rules to suit themselves.  :o
At least she thought better about it. But would she if she had not been in the public eye?
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2020/oct/27/victoria-derbyshires-covid-christmas-comments-problematic-say-experts
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on October 27, 2020, 11:47:26 AM
100% agree.

It's the selfish ones who are wrecking it for the rest of us. Most of them reported to be the 20 to 30 age group.

I've not used public transport and only visited my local supermarket and the odd 07:00 trip to B&Q to avoid the crowds.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on October 27, 2020, 12:10:05 PM
The road map out of the problem is actually pretty well known and has been demonstrated already in various countries, most recently here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54654646

Excerpt: “...four critical pillars in Australia's determined response to Covid-19: the closure of its international borders, "uniformly good" testing in all states and territories, contact tracing, where New South Wales has set "the gold standard", and a compliant community that has embraced distancing protocols.
The UK seems to be unable or unwilling to do any of that properly, and is therefore failing.

Of course, that’s just the epidemiological aspect of the pandemic. The knock-on effects on the economy, mental health, suspending of other medical procedures, etc are likely to continue long after the immediate fire has been extinguished.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on October 27, 2020, 05:25:12 PM
I was hearing today of a Poice Scotland inspector who doesn't believe in Covid-19 and tries to run his shift as Trump would. He won't wear a mask, won't social distance. Perhaps he has already had it because the latest research shows it causes a deterioration in brain function, even in those who have little or no symptoms. Whether the brain will recover only time will tell.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 27, 2020, 05:34:36 PM
It's the selfish ones who are wrecking it for the rest of us. Most of them reported to be the 20 to 30 age group.

That's not what I'm seeing here in rural Notts, much older age group are ignoring the rules.


The road map out of the problem is actually pretty well known and has been demonstrated already in various countries, most recently here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54654646

Absolutely. Lockdowns are all well and good, but they will never be anything but a sticking plaster while some system is devised to take its place. We can't keep locking down, the damage will be widespread and long lasting. We need an effective contact trace and isolate.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 27, 2020, 05:55:54 PM
Perhaps he has already had it because the latest research shows it causes a deterioration in brain function, even in those who have little or no symptoms. Whether the brain will recover only time will tell.

Brain fog is certainly a well known 'long covid' symptom.

I've been following the great children's author Michael Rosen's progress on twitter. After spending 7 weeks in intensive care, 6 of them on a ventilator, he still suffers from brain fog, blood clots, partial blindness, deafness, dizzy spells, numbness, and other symptoms.

All that said, he's made a remarkable recovery. After being ill for a couple of weeks, his wife was told by NHS 111 not to take him to hospital, and to care for him at home. However, a doctor friend looked at him and found his oxygen sats at 58%, and signs of the onset of organ failure. He's been very fortunate.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on October 27, 2020, 06:27:30 PM
It's the selfish ones who are wrecking it for the rest of us. Most of them reported to be the 20 to 30 age group.

That's not what I'm seeing here in rural Notts, much older age group are ignoring the rules.


The road map out of the problem is actually pretty well known and has been demonstrated already in various countries, most recently here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54654646

Absolutely. Lockdowns are all well and good, but they will never be anything but a sticking plaster while some system is devised to take its place. We can't keep locking down, the damage will be widespread and long lasting. We need an effective contact trace and isolate.
[/b]

The last Coronovirus thread had the only feasible suggestion - isolating and vaccinating  the very vulnerable and letting the rest get on with life.
With regular testing..

That suggestion has ben roundly pooh poohed by the establishment medics  without any alternative proposal and with the argument the NHS would be overwhelmed.
 They fail to recognise the way the economy is going that  the NHS is going to be unaffordable if we keep closing down the economy. 2020's GDP is forecast to be 10% down on 2019.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 27, 2020, 06:48:26 PM
The last Coronovirus thread had the only feasible suggestion - isolating and vaccinating  the very vulnerable and letting the rest get on with life.
With regular testing..

There may not be an effective vaccine for years, if ever. As said above, people are already being re-infected with new strains of the virus, another new one was isolated this week, I think it was on a cargo ship docked in New Zealand? You can't expect people to lock themselves away when there's no light at the end of the tunnel.

I was all for the initial lockdown, it should have come earlier... but we should, by now, have a system in place that makes lockdowns all but redundant. We should have replaced lockdown with a zero-covid strategy, such as that described in the link.

The current tier 2 measures here must already be damaging businesses, I popped into town today and it was very quiet. I suspect that these half-measures will do more damage to businesses than they do to the virus.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on October 27, 2020, 06:59:37 PM
The so called cure is causing much more damage than the disease...... all the lockdowns have done is spread the virus out and taken it into the seasonal flu territory... 
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 27, 2020, 07:11:22 PM
The so called cure is causing much more damage than the disease...... all the lockdowns have done is spread the virus out and taken it into the seasonal flu territory...

I agree, but that's only because the virus will get a free run again. That £12billion+ should have paid to put some system in place to control infections... instead, they were banking on a vaccine.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 27, 2020, 08:20:45 PM
The so called cure is causing much more damage than the disease...... all the lockdowns have done is spread the virus out and taken it into the seasonal flu territory... 
The lockdown was a blunt instrument to bring down the R value to less than one.
The reckless, unmonitored loosening of restrictions was what allowed the resurgence of the virus. The restrictions should have been released more carefully and if necessary some of the restrictions reimposed to keep the level of the virus at a manageable level. To release the restrictions wiilly-nilly without a proper track and trace system in place was irresponsible madness.
https://abc7news.com/hammer-and-the-dance-update-tomas-pueyo-coronavirus-article/6199923/
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-do-testing-and-contact-tracing-bde85b64072e


That £12billion+ should have paid to put some system in place to control infections... instead, they were banking on a vaccine.

[link removed by Admin]

Edit added second Tomas Pueyo link
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 27, 2020, 08:26:04 PM
We've just escaped tier 3 (England), for now. The south of the county (Nottingham, Rushcliffe, Broxtowe & Gedling) has been moved into tier 3, leaving us behind in tier 2.

I spoke too soon.

I'm hearing that the whole county of Nottinghamshire is now being considered for tier 3, and that the current council leaders of areas still in tier 2 will be meeting the government first thing in the morning. Apparently, it could delay the implementation for areas already agreed to move into tier 3 on Thursday.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on October 27, 2020, 08:57:15 PM
Looks like we will probably be going into Tier 2 in Scotland' system, due to start on Monday. A slight relaxing of rules from what we are currently experiencing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54703899 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54703899)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 27, 2020, 08:58:55 PM
We've just escaped tier 3 (England), for now. The south of the county (Nottingham, Rushcliffe, Broxtowe & Gedling) has been moved into tier 3, leaving us behind in tier 2.

I spoke too soon.

I'm hearing that the whole county of Nottinghamshire is now being considered for tier 3, and that the current council leaders of areas still in tier 2 will be meeting the government first thing in the morning. Apparently, it could delay the implementation for areas already agreed to move into tier 3 on Thursday.
"Fiddling while Rome burns" comes to mind.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 27, 2020, 09:13:20 PM
I'm hearing that the whole county of Nottinghamshire is now being considered for tier 3, and that the current council leaders of areas still in tier 2 will be meeting the government first thing in the morning. Apparently, it could delay the implementation for areas already agreed to move into tier 3 on Thursday.
"Fiddling while Rome burns" comes to mind.

Here lies the fatal flaw in local lockdowns - taking a week to agree, while infections spread around adjoining areas. Imagine dealing with a bushfire, and then delaying by a week before trying to fight it. When you do, it has already spread out of control.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on October 28, 2020, 07:00:08 AM
The latest word from SAGE is that the deaths this time will far exceed the first phase. Though they will never reach the levels seen back in March and April they will continue at a high level, possibly until the spring.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on October 28, 2020, 07:11:35 AM
... and despite this warning Police are still breaking up hundreds of large parties each week.

Who are these selfish brain dead people
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on October 28, 2020, 08:33:01 AM
... and despite this warning Police are still breaking up hundreds of large parties each week.


Back in March I saw the headline that one weekend the Police had attended hundreds of parties in Manchester,  I remember thinking 'if the police are going to parties and at the same time asking the public not to attend parties they are not setting a very good example are they ? '  :o

Lets face it, this virus preys mainly on over 65's with other health conditions ( co-morbidities ) , the younger people have a vanishingly small chance of even getting slight symptoms from the virus.  Economically active people ( ie workers ) can see their livelihood and future prospects going down the gurgler - unemployement rate amongst 40 to 60 age group also rising and well as the youth unemployment rate.

As I have said before most people over 65 are retired and economically inactive - they can isolate / shield with little or no affect on their finances while younger people carry on pretty much as normal. 

Many businesses will not recover from these 'serial lockdowns' and this will be reflected in higher unemployment in the future.   As I said when the 'cure' is worse than the disease you have to have a reality check - the government is blindly following the advice of egg-heads who know little about stuff outside their expertise and the consequences of their advice on the 'wellbeing' of the country as a whole.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 28, 2020, 09:57:59 AM
the government is blindly following the advice of egg-heads who know little about stuff outside their expertise and the consequences of their advice on the 'wellbeing' of the country as a whole.

I would dispute that. The government has been told right from the beginning that an effective test, trace and isolate system is essential before you can allow the population to return to some sort of normality. Where is it?

Lockdowns were never designed to fix anything, they are nothing but a sticking plaster to suppress the R0 value until other measures can be put in place. We can't lock older people in their houses indefinitely, nor do we have the systems in place to properly isolate groups that are care dependent within their own homes.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 28, 2020, 10:01:17 AM
I'm hearing that the whole county of Nottinghamshire is now being considered for tier 3, and that the current council leaders of areas still in tier 2 will be meeting the government first thing in the morning. Apparently, it could delay the implementation for areas already agreed to move into tier 3 on Thursday.
"Fiddling while Rome burns" comes to mind.

Here lies the fatal flaw in local lockdowns - taking a week to agree, while infections spread around adjoining areas. Imagine dealing with a bushfire, and then delaying by a week before trying to fight it. When you do, it has already spread out of control.

It's not just a week. SAGE reccommended a "cicuit breaker" on 21st September.
That's five weeks and counting.

... and despite this warning Police are still breaking up hundreds of large parties each week.

Lets face it, this virus preys mainly on over 65's with other health conditions ( co-morbidities ) , the younger people have a vanishingly small chance of even getting slight symptoms from the virus.  Economically active people ( ie workers ) can see their livelihood and future prospects going down the gurgler - unemployement rate amongst 40 to 60 age group also rising and well as the youth unemployment rate.

As I have said before most people over 65 are retired and economically inactive - they can isolate / shield with little or no affect on their finances while younger people carry on pretty much as normal. 

Many businesses will not recover from these 'serial lockdowns' and this will be reflected in higher unemployment in the future.   As I said when the 'cure' is worse than the disease you have to have a reality check - the government is blindly following the advice of egg-heads who know little about stuff outside their expertise and the consequences of their advice on the 'wellbeing' of the country as a whole.

It must be becoming obvious to everybody that the virus is spreading widely among the young (parties, schools  universities) but the young inevitably then transmit the disease to the old who need hospital treatment and some ultimately die. It is impossible to completely isolate the old.
At present the virus is multiplying and will continue to do so until the R value is brought below 1.
The economy and the health service cannot function properly until this is achieved. It's not a case of one or the other and it's no good just crossing our fingers.

Lifted from Huff post.
“But there are four things you need to know about the Great Barrington Declaration:
1. It completely ignores the fact that herd immunity has never been achieved without a vaccine
2. It provides no plan for how a country can effectively shield all vulnerable people
3. It was sponsored by an organisation funded by Charles Koch – a right-wing billionaire known for promoting climate change denial and opposing regulations on business
4. The vast majority of experts disagree with it”
Stay safe, folk, and don’t crowd each other.

To Sparky Paul. I see you beat me to it again.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 28, 2020, 10:16:29 AM
I'm hearing that the whole county of Nottinghamshire is now being considered for tier 3, and that the current council leaders of areas still in tier 2 will be meeting the government first thing in the morning. Apparently, it could delay the implementation for areas already agreed to move into tier 3 on Thursday.
"Fiddling while Rome burns" comes to mind.

It's a similar issue, but I was referring specifically to the negotiation process that is going on before local lockdowns are put in place.

The council leaders around Nottingham are currently livid with the government - this process has been going on for a while now, and yesterday afternoon they thought that a package was agreed, and the restrictions were to come into force at midnight tonight. Now, it's all up in the air again... while all this has been going on, local infection rates per 100,000 have doubled, and hospitals are now reaching capacity.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Basil on October 28, 2020, 10:30:38 AM
It's not as clear cut as everyone under 65 without health issues will be fine if they contract Covid-19, someone I know without any underlying health issues went into hospital on his 62nd birthday in April and was in the ICU for almost three months, at one point he was given a 20% chance of survival but managed to pull through.

About a month ago someone who works in our local hospital said the wards were filling up with Covid patients and most of them in the 40's and 50's.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 28, 2020, 10:39:02 AM

It's a similar issue, but I was referring specifically to the negotiation process that is going on before local lockdowns are put in place.

The council leaders around Nottingham are currently livid with the government - this process has been going on for a while now, and yesterday afternoon they thought that a package was agreed, and the restrictions were to come into force at midnight tonight. Now, it's all up in the air again... while all this has been going on, local infection rates per 100,000 have doubled, and hospitals are now reaching capacity.
Yes and how long is it going to take to make individual deals with Liverpool, Manchester, Lancashire, Yorkshire, Newcastle, Northumberland ---------?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on October 28, 2020, 11:46:56 AM
Just like the virus itself, this thread keeps mutating and reappearing in a different guise! It seems to transmit mostly through 'older' Jazz drivers.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on October 28, 2020, 12:05:54 PM
"Latest coronavirus news: Vaccine is 'likely to be imperfect' and 'might not prevent infection', warns head of UK task force"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-covid-deaths-cases-lockdown-tier-vaccine/

I hasten to add the headlines on the issue in the Telegraph have been risible.

October 20 (!!) "No sign of a second wave"

October 18  " 40 m vaccine doses by Christmas"

Now the vaccine will not work..

Stand by for another UK lockdown - is my guess hence the change in mood music.


But the messaging is so confusing and at times wrong that many are likely to ignore it..

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 28, 2020, 12:42:46 PM
Stand by for another UK lockdown - is my guess hence the change in mood music.


But the messaging is so confusing and at times wrong that many are likely to ignore it..

Agree, they're going to have their hands full enforcing another lockdown. Who was it that predicted civil unrest at the start of all this?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 28, 2020, 02:07:28 PM
Stand by for another UK lockdown - is my guess hence the change in mood music.


But the messaging is so confusing and at times wrong that many are likely to ignore it..

Agree, they're going to have their hands full enforcing another lockdown. Who was it that predicted civil unrest at the start of all this?

It's all mixed messaging, smoke and mirrors.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/28/dashboard-designed-to-chart-englands-covid-19-response-finds-major-gaps-in-data
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on October 28, 2020, 02:49:37 PM
I do get angry at the 20-30 age group and their disregard for the rules and spreading the virus, not that they are the only age group, but I do have empathy with them. In my teens and 20's, Covid19 would have just been some never ending news story that doesnt affect me. I just know I would have taken a 'it won't happen to me' approach, just like I did with most things at the time. The gov were issuing lots of advise that I ignored and had a great time doing so!

However, by and large, it strikes me that most people do stick to the rulres. Its the selfish minority. That and the fact that most people think that 2 meters is about the same lenghth as a Curlywurly when it comes to social distancing.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 28, 2020, 05:37:46 PM
I do have sympathy with students, forced to go back to university, face to face learning in many cases, locked into large groups inside halls, and then criticised for socialising with their group of friends. The big problem is not the socialising.

It''s the older age groups that should know better. I have an ex-job on one side and a parish councillor on the other, both openly flouting the existing tier 2 rules.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on October 28, 2020, 06:09:12 PM
Just like the virus itself, this thread keeps mutating and reappearing in a different guise! It seems to transmit mostly through 'older' Jazz drivers.
We cannot ignore what is likely to be the most influential thing affecting the world in our lifetime, no matter how many times it is shut down.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: John Ratsey on October 28, 2020, 08:34:19 PM
The government is running out of both money and goodwill from the population.

I think this old lady https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-barnsley-pensioner-bbc-anti-lockdown-viral-b1221765.html isn't alone in her thoughts.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 28, 2020, 08:51:27 PM
The government is running out of both money and goodwill from the population.

I think this old lady https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-barnsley-pensioner-bbc-anti-lockdown-viral-b1221765.html isn't alone in her thoughts.

Unfortunately.
That attitude is just as selfish as the teenagers having parties.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on October 28, 2020, 09:15:41 PM
Yeah, poor students. Making the move from home, the commitment to the course and the massive debt that goes with it, only for covid19 to happen. I understand tutorials are online ! Not fair for them at all.

Covid19 is a <insert chosen expletive here>  >:(
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 29, 2020, 08:42:25 AM
Yeah, poor students. Making the move from home, the commitment to the course and the massive debt that goes with it, only for covid19 to happen. I understand tutorials are online ! Not fair for them at all.

Covid19 is a <insert chosen expletive here>  >:(
I think it was a big mistake to bring the students back in - Young people from different regions and countries crowded together in halls of residence with shared facilities or in squalid flats (think the Young Ones).
Mixing with students commuting to University.
Many may be asymptomatic carriers -young and fit.
Desperate to use their newly found freedom and with raging hormones.

And having brought them in, how do they disperse them safely at Christmas?

Much of the course work could have been done on line.
Of course there's big money involved.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on October 29, 2020, 09:21:10 AM
The government is running out of both money and goodwill from the population.

I think this old lady https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-barnsley-pensioner-bbc-anti-lockdown-viral-b1221765.html isn't alone in her thoughts.

That woman is great,  she has it right....

Riots in Europe over continual lockdowns - the proleteriat know that their livelihoods and future prospects are on a downward spiral due to continual lockdowns.  Just like any other virus there are only a certain number of people susceptible to it - the agony is being spread out by serial lockdowns but the total number of fatalities from it will be the same,  add to that the collateral damage where many more people who never got the virus died from other ( preventable ) causes and you have a recipe for madness.    The new official mantra is 'protect the NHS by sacrificing the country'.......

The government scientists are the love child of Chicken Licken and private Fraser ' we're doomed, the sky is falling in'.......
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on October 29, 2020, 09:58:18 AM
So if lockdown isn't the answer why is the world following that path? Unless you leave people to die in their homes (Bring out your dead), they have to be taken into hospital. So that blocks the NHS for all the heart attack victims, cancer sufferers and accident cases. So the options are either lockdown or leave people to die at home. What do you think will cause the greatest unrest?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on October 29, 2020, 10:24:42 AM
So if lockdown isn't the answer why is the world following that path? Unless you leave people to die in their homes (Bring out your dead), they have to be taken into hospital. So that blocks the NHS for all the heart attack victims, cancer sufferers and accident cases. So the options are either lockdown or leave people to die at home. What do you think will cause the greatest unrest?

That, is indeed the question. My local hospital is full of Covid 19 patients. Those who would "let it rip" need to answer a simple question - do you refuse to send an ambulance for somebody who can scarcely breathe and needs a ventilator? Do you let them die in agony?

I'm not saying that there isn't a debate to be had about the best approach but the idea we just let it rip is nonsensical.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on October 29, 2020, 10:51:52 AM
The government is running out of both money and goodwill from the population.

I think this old lady https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-barnsley-pensioner-bbc-anti-lockdown-viral-b1221765.html isn't alone in her thoughts.

That woman is great,  she has it right....

No, she is completely selfish and ignorant of what is being done to protect her. If she fell ill with the virus, she would expect to be treated in hospital wouldn't she?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 29, 2020, 10:59:12 AM
Great post Jocko.

So if lockdown isn't the answer why is the world following that path?

The first question you have to ask is whether lockdowns are a successful means of halting the virus, or just being employed as a fire-fighting measure. Lockdowns can only lead to a successful outcome if one or more of the following three things occur;

1. An effective vaccine is produced. Unlikely IMHO, but what many western governments seem to be banking on.

2. The time gained is used as a breathing space to develop an effective test, trace and isolation system to continue virus suppression after lockdown is lifted.

3. The lockdown itself is a policy to achieve a zero-covid position. This has been the only effective policy so far, and has been very successful in Australia, New Zealand, and a number of densely populated countries in SE Asia. The actual number of deaths in these countries have been startlingly small, compared to many western countries.

As option 1 is looking increasingly unlikely, and our government seems reluctant to follow options 2 or 3 through to a successful conclusion, I can't really see where we are going with this.

Unless you leave people to die in their homes (Bring out your dead), they have to be taken into hospital.

I'm very sad to say that this is already happening again. If you look at the hospital admissions for the last few weeks, there has been a significant drop in covid admissions for the over 80 age group. In many north England areas, hospitals are already under a great deal of pressure. Local hospital trust is already dealing with significant numbers of covid patients in the 45-60 age group.

So that blocks the NHS for all the heart attack victims, cancer sufferers and accident cases.

...and that's the real tragedy. The lack of an effective means to reduce the virus to manageable levels will again render the NHS overrun, treatments cancelled, and people will die as a result. Cancer operations are being cancelled in Nottinghamshire hospitals now.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on October 29, 2020, 11:18:28 AM
  add to that the collateral damage where many more people who never got the virus died from other ( preventable ) causes and you have a recipe for madness.    The new official mantra is 'protect the NHS by sacrificing the country'.......

The government scientists are the love child of Chicken Licken and private Fraser ' we're doomed, the sky is falling in'.......

Just on this narrow point on collateral damage. I genuinely don't get this. By bearing down on the rate of infection we hopefully will avoid hospitals being overrun. The collateral damage you talk about occurs in spades when ICUs are full of Covid patients and other critically ill people can't access A and E. In short you die of your heart attack in the ambulance or in a corridor if the ICU is full of people on ventilators. The NHS will have more capacity to deal with other life threatening illnesses if it is not overloaded with Covid patients.

Or am I missing something?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: John Ratsey on October 29, 2020, 11:37:44 AM
So if lockdown isn't the answer why is the world following that path?
It can work if the lockdown is backed up by an effective test and trace system. The Chinese have demonstrated how it can be done. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54504785 . However, as the gov't is discovering, the virus is now  too well embedded in the population here for that approach to work.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on October 29, 2020, 11:53:54 AM
Test and Trace seems to work if it is done on a local basis as it is here in Scotland and now in parts of England. Let's face it; even HMRC works on local offices. Why the UK government wants everything done by some costly, inefficient, NGO, only Number 10 knows.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on October 29, 2020, 02:21:46 PM
Test and Trace was developed by Public Health England.  (PHE).

If you want to understand what went wrong, then the link below is worth reading:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-tracing-sp/special-report-into-the-fog-how-britain-lost-track-of-the-coronavirus-idUKKBN2400ZS

I quote a revealing bit "The bulk of tests for the coronavirus in the early stage of the outbreak was done within Public Health England’s own labs. A clinical adviser to the government said the agency had been “very centralised” and “made quite clear they are controlling all of the testing.”  "

and this:
https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/07/18/how-centralisation-impeded-britains-covid-19-response

"To make matters worse, the development of testing capacity has also suffered from the urge to centralise. Christopher Stanley of MicrosensDx, a clinical-diagnostics company, had a covid-19 test ready in mid-March. He approached various parts of the government, to no avail. The testing regime was run by phe, which was relying on its own capacity. Large-scale testing got off the ground only at the end of May, when the government started sourcing kits from companies like his."


Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 29, 2020, 02:33:19 PM
Test and Trace was developed by Public Health England.  (PHE).

Initially true, but operation of the system is now in the hands of Serco, Deloitte, Palantir, Faculty and Capita, all handed large public contracts without any procurement or tendering process. The Government can't even account for £3bn of the value of contracts spent on test & trace.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 29, 2020, 04:40:15 PM
So if lockdown isn't the answer why is the world following that path? Unless you leave people to die in their homes (Bring out your dead), they have to be taken into hospital. So that blocks the NHS for all the heart attack victims, cancer sufferers and accident cases. So the options are either lockdown or leave people to die at home. What do you think will cause the greatest unrest?
Lockdowns are very blunt instruments and are very expensive to the economies of nations and so will only be used as a last resort when other mitigations have been unsuccessful and the virus is out of control.
However the quicker the restrictions are applied the better both in terms of lives saved and damage to the economy since the rate of rise in infections before "the peak" is always quicker than the rate at which it the number of infections can be made to fall. Europe is now being forced into second partial lockdowns and guess who is going to be the last to respond?
 https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/28/europe/europe-new-lockdowns-announced-intl/index.html


If you want to understand what went wrong, then the link below is worth reading:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-tracing-sp/special-report-into-the-fog-how-britain-lost-track-of-the-coronavirus-idUKKBN2400ZS

"To make matters worse, the development of testing capacity has also suffered from the urge to centralise. Christopher Stanley of MicrosensDx, a clinical-diagnostics company, had a covid-19 test ready in mid-March. He approached various parts of the government, to no avail. The testing regime was run by phe, which was relying on its own capacity. Large-scale testing got off the ground only at the end of May, when the government started sourcing kits from companies like his."


A good read.
Testing and tracing since the start of the pandemic has been surrounded by secrecy and centralisation.
I've been following the posts on another forum by  a bloke who appears to be involved in research and he said that at the start of the pandemic several universities and research institutions offered the use of their machines but the powers that be insisted that the machines be physically moved to their Lighthouse labs resulting in delay while the machines were dismantled, moved, reinstalled and recalibrated and then operated by people unfamiliar with particular machines.
He also said that initially the machines were operated by university technicians and post-graduate students but they moved back to the universities when they reopened leaving the machines to be operated by inexperienced operatives.

The Government has based its "success" in test, track and trace on number of tests, but this in itself is useless without the ability to track the contacts. ( and this becomes ever more difficult with increasing numbers of tests.)
The opportunity to get on top of test track and trace while the number of cases was relatively low  in summer was squandered.

Test and Trace was developed by Public Health England.  (PHE).

Initially true, but operation of the system is now in the hands of Serco, Deloitte, Palantir, Faculty and Capita, all handed large public contracts without any procurement or tendering process. The Government can't even account for £3bn of the value of contracts spent on test & trace.

[links removed by Admin]
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on October 29, 2020, 05:14:43 PM
  add to that the collateral damage where many more people who never got the virus died from other ( preventable ) causes and you have a recipe for madness.    The new official mantra is 'protect the NHS by sacrificing the country'.......

The government scientists are the love child of Chicken Licken and private Fraser ' we're doomed, the sky is falling in'.......

Just on this narrow point on collateral damage. I genuinely don't get this. By bearing down on the rate of infection we hopefully will avoid hospitals being overrun. The collateral damage you talk about occurs in spades when ICUs are full of Covid patients and other critically ill people can't access A and E. In short you die of your heart attack in the ambulance or in a corridor if the ICU is full of people on ventilators. The NHS will have more capacity to deal with other life threatening illnesses if it is not overloaded with Covid patients.

Or am I missing something?

The fact is hospitals are nowhere near full ( and why are there still the unused nightingale hospitals ) - just that all other parts of health service have been shut down.  People are just not being diagnosed or treated for life threatening conditions because many parts of system are just basically closed.  If you look at all deaths, covid is not really a major part, other causes are larger but all the focus is on covid.    Covid is really the only thing the 'experts' are focusing on, to the detriment of everything else,  and covid deaths were well overcounted because if there was part of a virus anywhere in your body,  whether it killed you or not you were a 'covid death', Germany and some other countries did not fall into that trap which is why their figures were lower. 
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on October 29, 2020, 05:49:05 PM
The fact is hospitals are nowhere near full
Where are you getting this fact from culzean?

Everything I am seeing is telling me they are full in my region. And my son's partner is a nurse working in our local Hospital and she tells me it is nearing capacity.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 29, 2020, 06:06:08 PM
The fact is hospitals are nowhere near full ( and why are there still the unused nightingale hospitals ) - just that all other parts of health service have been shut down.

It might be okay where you are, but up here, hospitals are struggling again.

Local Hospital Trust is now treating over 200 covid patients. Virtually all available beds at the largest hospital are occupied, and this is backing up into A&E. I have two nieces that work in local NHS hospitals, one of them works in ICU at that hospital, the other is a ward sister. I would rather believe what they say, rather than something you've read on Guido.

There is no staff for the Nightingale Hospitals, there never was. They only ever allowed hospitals to transfer patients there if they also seconded staff, that's why they only ever treated 51 patients.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on October 29, 2020, 06:45:47 PM
Same here. Spokesman from Leeds Teaching Hospitals on our local news just now saying the hospitals are fuller now than they were in the April peak.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: John Ratsey on October 29, 2020, 06:49:58 PM
Regarding hospitals see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54718318 .

I've got a theory about why the increase in the virus is gradually moving from north to south. It reflects the weather moving towards winter so people are cooped up on doors with the windows shut in order to try to keep warm. (Note that rural areas, wherever they are, are less favourable conditions for the virus to spread).
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 29, 2020, 08:34:16 PM
The virus never went away completely in the north, it was always bubbling under. Open all the schools back up and boom. The lockdown was lifted too early - as soon as the south was over the worst.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on October 29, 2020, 08:36:38 PM
They reckon that R0 in London could be as high as 2.86 at present (The Imperial College).
Scotland's Nightingale Hospital is currently being used to handle outpatients in the West of Scotland.
People in Scottish hospitals as of yesterday stand at 1,152. At the peak in April, it was just over 1,500.
NHS Lanarkshire facilities hit 90 per cent capacity yesterday and were treating 264 in-patients with confirmed or suspected Covid-19.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 29, 2020, 08:59:51 PM

The fact is hospitals are nowhere near full ( and why are there still the unused nightingale hospitals ) - just that all other parts of health service have been shut down.  People are just not being diagnosed or treated for life threatening conditions because many parts of system are just basically closed.
More fake news from lefty papers?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-london-nhs-hospitals-second-wave-patients-b1425620.html
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/coronavirus-shuts-17-hospital-wards-in-one-city-as-admissions-pass-aprils-peak/ar-BB1at91k

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on October 30, 2020, 08:46:30 AM
The fact is hospitals are nowhere near full
Where are you getting this fact from culzean?

Everything I am seeing is telling me they are full in my region. And my son's partner is a nurse working in our local Hospital and she tells me it is nearing capacity.

They seem to be saying hospitals are full when critical care beds ( ICU ) are nearly all occupied,  this says nothing about the rest of the 'general' beds - which massively outnumber ICU beds.....  Need to figure out how many extra deaths will occur in future years because the NHS was totally focused on Covid. 

Here is ONS report up to 16 Oct 2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending16october2020

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on October 30, 2020, 09:15:38 AM
They could have a million ordinary beds but if people need ICU beds and none are available then for Covid sufferers the hospital is full.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: d2d4j on October 30, 2020, 09:16:10 AM
Hi

This year (before covid) my wife was very poorly and after seeing a GP was sent to surgical assessment unit at LGI (Leeds general infirmary)

At about 2.30am after multiple test, she was due to have an operation from 7am onwards

We were sent home to arrive back for 6.45am due to no beds and the hospital running above capacity

After her operation, it was about 3.5 hours in recovery as they had to discharge a patient on a ward for a bed for her

St James in leeds was also the same

This was before covid and January this year....

So hospitals reaching capacity does not surprise me

Many thanks

John
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 30, 2020, 09:17:16 AM


They seem to be saying hospitals are full when critical care beds ( ICU ) are nearly all occupied,  this says nothing about the rest of the 'general' beds - which massively outnumber ICU beds.....  Need to figure out how many extra deaths will occur in future years because the NHS was totally focused on Covid. 

Here is ONS report up to 16 Oct 2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending16october2020

Edit Added Exponential growth explanation.

Hospital admissions lag infections by approx. 2 weeks deaths by approx. 4weeks.
Cases are now doubling approx. 9days.
The virus is being transmitted from younger age groups to older age groups some of whom will require hospitilisation
The numbers are already in the pipeline.
Never underestimate exponential growth
https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/30/pm-told-every-hospital-bed-will-be-full-by-december-17-without-more-lockdowns-
13505226/
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/covid-hospital-cases-in-uk-e2-80-98could-pass-spring-peak-in-november-e2-80-99/ar-BB1atgfu



Meanwhile the Mail argues that hospital beds are not full using figures from 3rd September -nearly 2 months ago.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8785415/Just-1-800-110-000-occupied-hospital-beds-currently-taken-Covid-19-patients.html

Exponential gowth
https://www.mathscareers.org.uk/article/the-rice-and-chessboard-legend/#:~:text=Exponential%20Growth%20Pyramid%20schemes%20and%20the%20rice%20and,equal%20to%20a%20bigger%20number%20such%20as%206.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 30, 2020, 11:11:19 AM
They seem to be saying hospitals are full when critical care beds ( ICU ) are nearly all occupied,  this says nothing about the rest of the 'general' beds - which massively outnumber ICU beds.....

Who is this 'they' you are talking about? People on here are telling you that they have family working on the wards in these hospitals, are you seriously suggesting that all these people are lying? Your level of denial is breathtaking.

My nearest major hospital has asked people not to attend A&E unless absolutely necessary, A&E is blocked because ward occupancy is virtually 100%. In the south of the county, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire ICS have well over 400 covid patients in hospital, and Nottingham hospitals alone are admitting around 50 covid patients a day, that's another full ward every day. To put that into context, 400 is half the beds in a very large regional hospital, and that number is currently doubling every 8-9 days. Numbers have overtaken those admitted during in the first peak.

I'm certain that the much improved treatments will save many lives that would have been lost in the first wave, but this will add further pressure on hospitals as patients stay longer and do not die. As soon as hospitals get to the point where they have to triage people at home and admit only the most viable cases, deaths will begin to rise rapidly.

As John says above, hospitals do not generally run with a lot of slack, and allowing this virus out of control again will inevitably lead to other treatments, and patients, suffering.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on October 30, 2020, 11:11:40 AM
I guess the "let it rip" school need to say how many daily deaths they would tolerate and if they would contemplate allowing older Covid patients to die at home gasping for breath.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on October 30, 2020, 11:50:53 AM
What did annoy me was that BBC picture of the 'children' in Nottingham centre,  no masks, crowded together without a care in the world.

They are wrecking it for those of us who are following the rules.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on October 30, 2020, 12:03:00 PM
There is a Tesco Extra at the top of my street and every lunchtime, Monday to Friday, there is a crowd of thirty to forty high school pupils gathered in a knot outside the entrance. No masks, no social distancing. Today in the local paper there is news that another four schools in Fife have had to send pupils home due to Covid infections (one in Kirkcaldy, two in Glenrothes and one in Cupar). Obviously, the shop has a limit as to how many are allowed into the premises at a time. The school itself must know what is happening every lunchtime but probably feel it is not their concern.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on October 30, 2020, 12:18:13 PM
I guess the "let it rip" school need to say how many daily deaths they would tolerate and if they would contemplate allowing older Covid patients to die at home gasping for breath.

My answer to the "let it rip" brigade is we will do so and ensure you and others who think the same go to the end of the queues for all treatment...

After all, if it's not bad and the NHS will not be swamped there will be no problem and you will be treated.  :o :o



The Daily Telegraph comments sections are worth reading.
Apart from the conspiracy theorists and the nutters , lots of comparisons are made using wrong arithmetic, comparing total deaths for a prior year with 9 months of this year .. and one person who worked out the UK deaths per million population on the assumption the UK's population is 42million (it is 67m).

If they are typical readers , then many DT readers are innumerate and incapable of simple logic.

(the Guardian are not dissimilar on different subjects - usually economics)

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 30, 2020, 12:54:30 PM
Monday to Friday, there is a crowd of thirty to forty high school pupils gathered in a knot outside the entrance. No masks, no social distancing.

As I said to someone at my kids school, when a group walks out of the school gates, at what point down the footpath does it become an illegal gathering? I can understand why kids are less likely to distance outside of school when they have just walked out of an environment where they are forced to mix with hundreds, and in some cases thousands, of other pupils and staff, and are told this is absolutely fine and that masks are not required. I suspect that there is far more transmission going on inside school than outside, 11-19 age group is now reporting the highest number of positive cases.

The same applies to uni students. They are being warned not to socialise, yet are forced together inside universities and in some cases, detained in large groups in halls of residence.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on October 30, 2020, 01:30:09 PM
Scotland has just announced that years 4 to 6 in secondary schools will have to wear masks in school classrooms as well as the current communal areas.
Another thing that was mentioned in today's update was the "Spanish Mutation". Seemingly 50% of the current UK infected have been infected by a new strain first detected in June in farmworkers in Catalonia and Aragon. The "experts" think that the mutation of the coronavirus could have been fuelled by tourists returning home from Spain during the summer month. This 20A.EU1 strain accounts for 90% of the infections in Spain at the moment.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on October 30, 2020, 02:09:53 PM
They could have a million ordinary beds but if people need ICU beds and none are available then for Covid sufferers the hospital is full.
So my son's partner works in MAU - medical Assessment Unit. They don't generally deal with Covid patients. She is telling us they have never been as busy. Holidays have been cancelled. It is what it is.

I have had it up to here with people stating 'facts' with nothing to back it up.

Opinion is one thing, facts are another.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 30, 2020, 03:03:18 PM
I guess the "let it rip" school need to say how many daily deaths they would tolerate and if they would contemplate allowing older Covid patients to die at home gasping for breath.

My answer to the "let it rip" brigade is we will do so and ensure you and others who think the same go to the end of the queues for all treatment...

After all, if it's not bad and the NHS will not be swamped there will be no problem and you will be treated.  :o :o


That would be OK if they could contrive to keep it among themselves and then be trusted to stick to your "end of the queue" condition.
Same with Kremmen's Nottingham revellers.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 30, 2020, 04:52:15 PM
Scotland has just announced that years 4 to 6 in secondary schools will have to wear masks in school classrooms as well as the current communal areas.

My kids' secondary school has only just started asking pupils to wear masks in communal areas.

Before half term, almost none were being worn anywhere in school. Even on school buses, where it is mandatory, compliance has only been around 50% - they take them off as soon as they get past the driver. There has already been multiple confirmed cases.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on October 30, 2020, 05:09:46 PM
Covid is spreading "significantly" faster through England than even the government's predicted "worst-case" scenario, documents reveal.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says there are around four times as many people catching Covid than anticipated.
A "reasonable worst-case scenario" is used by officials and the NHS to plan for the months ahead.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 30, 2020, 05:40:59 PM
Trouble is Boris (or Cummings) will be unlikely to implement a circuit breaker(since it is advocated by Starmer) or a tier 4 set of restrictions (since it has been introduced but not yet implemented by Sturgeon) but will persist with the non functioning system until numbers get completely out of hand and he is forced into a complete lockdown.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: VicW on October 30, 2020, 07:05:36 PM
There is absolutely no chance of beating the virus while we have people the like of those in Nottingham who gathered in illegal groups to 'celebrate' the start of the more strict lockdown rules and which has also happened in other parts of the country.
They are stupid, ignorant, selfish morons who will be responsible for a return to total lockdown but will be the first to demonstrate against it. They are joined by the idiot on BBC News who openly admitted breaking the rules about travelling outside the area and said that the rules were there to be broken. If people like this get the bug they will expect priority treatment having spread the bug to countless others. If you wish them ill they may become a glut on the ration strength of the NHS system.
 Bring back a full lockdown and give the police the power to issue on-the-spot fines as long as they don't get stupid like last time and want to search peoples shopping bags.

Vic.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on October 30, 2020, 07:35:08 PM
The UK is not serious about enforcing its own rules.

The Italian rules introduced in March 2020
"Earlier this week, ministers approved an emergency decree to introduce tougher sanctions for anyone who ignores the lockdown.



Those who violate the containment measures could receive a fine of between €400 (£360) and €3,000 (£2,700); a significant increase from the previous maximum fine of €206 (£187).


In addition, anyone who has been quarantined after testing positive for Covid-19 and “intentionally violates” the order to stay in their home could face a prison sentence between one to five years, according to the decree."


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-lockdown-police-charges-fines-quarantine-lombardy-a9427046.html

Under those rules, Cummings and a SNP MP would be in jail..
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 30, 2020, 08:48:15 PM
Nutters in Italy too.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54701042

It almost seems like a self-destructive instinct. Trouble is  the innocent law-abiding population will suffer too.

Or is it being stirred up?
"Some on the streets are peaceful: an agonised call for help by restaurateurs or gym-owners. But a mix of far-right and far-left agitators, organised crime groups and bored football hooligans have sensed an opening, looting shops and clashing with police. The interior minister warns of "an autumn of social tension".

Could our police and courts cope?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 30, 2020, 09:22:58 PM
If you wonder where all this complete disregard for the rules propagates, you only have to spend five minutes on twitter & facebook.

The Times is reporting that a national lockdown will be announced on Monday, to come into force two days later. Don't know how much truth there is in it.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 30, 2020, 11:46:07 PM


The Times is reporting that a national lockdown will be announced on Monday, to come into force two days later. Don't know how much truth there is in it.

The Guardian's predicting a six week Circuit breaker.
I think they're leaking rumours to the press again so that they gauge public reaction over the weekend.
They'll be following the "science" but a month too late just like the last time.
What a bl**dy way to run a country.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on October 31, 2020, 04:19:30 AM
Hands up for all those with sympathy for that Manchester guy who refused to wear a mask, reckoned it was all a hoax, then caught Covid, spent 2 weeks on hospital and lost 1 and a half stone.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-manchester-54730059

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 31, 2020, 08:52:04 AM
I think they're leaking rumours to the press again so that they gauge public reaction over the weekend.

Yes, here we go again, government by focus group.

What a bl**dy way to run a country.

Indeed.

Does anyone think this will have the desired effect if they fail to close schools, which seems to be the likelihood?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on October 31, 2020, 09:48:52 AM
I think they're leaking rumours to the press again so that they gauge public reaction over the weekend.

Yes, here we go again, government by focus group.

What a bl**dy way to run a country.

Indeed.

Does anyone think this will have the desired effect if they fail to close schools, which seems to be the likelihood?

Well if they fail to close schools and parents behave elsewhere as they do here..no social distancing, no masks.. and if the children catch Covid - as they are at present - and infect the teachers or the parents then localised flare ups are likely.. unless the children wear masks at school and change them regularly during the day...

We are a Tier 1 area and several school classes are off due to infections - at almost all local schools...so what a Tier 3 area will be like, ............................
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on October 31, 2020, 10:27:16 AM
I often hear China referenced as coping with Covid best. The reason is, the regime they live under. For example during their lockdown, each individual tower block was activley monitored by the powers at be to ensure the rules were being adhered to. The residents know full well there will be ramifications for themselves and their family if they disobey.

I am not for a moment suggesting we should adopt that kind of regime, or indeed supporting it in anyway. However the petulant, churlish and selfish behaviour of some UK residents would simply not occur in such a society. The freedoms we have in this country are taken for granted and abused.  The selfish would do well to remember that the restrictions are not going to last for ever and frankly are for the benefit of our whole society.

Some days I feel optomistic that most people are sensible and follow the rules. Some days, depending on what Radio I've listed to or newspaper I've ready, I feel dismayed.  Covid reaction fatigue.

Time for a drive in the Jazz and switch off from Covid for a bit.  8)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on October 31, 2020, 11:24:07 AM
I knew this pandemic would end in tiers.

The reason Starmer wants to shut the country down for 3 weeks is that he has bad hearing...

He thought they were talking about 'a 2 to 3 week Sir Kier tea break'.........
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 31, 2020, 11:50:23 AM

Does anyone think this will have the desired effect if they fail to close schools, which seems to be the likelihood?

I think (school) education should be the last thing to be shut down due to the long term effects on the life chances of the youngsters and that the Government made a mistake in not imposing a circuit breaker (including travel ban) to coincide with the half term  break, both in terms of disruption to children's education and effectiveness of circuit breaker by earlier intervention.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 31, 2020, 12:02:05 PM
I think (school) education should be the last thing to be shut down due to the long term effects on the life chances of the youngsters and that the Government made a mistake in not imposing a circuit breaker (including travel ban) to coincide with the half term  break, both in terms of disruption to children's education and effectiveness of circuit breaker by earlier intervention.

Whilst I agree with with all that, I wonder if we are past the point at which a lockdown without non-essential workplaces, schools and other learning establishments will be effective.

The highest number of new cases were being recorded in the 11-19 age group before half term. IMHO, there should have been a national push to move to so called 'blended' learning, and reducing class sizes to a more manageable level, as many other countries have managed to do.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 31, 2020, 12:58:17 PM
I think (school) education should be the last thing to be shut down due to the long term effects on the life chances of the youngsters and that the Government made a mistake in not imposing a circuit breaker (including travel ban) to coincide with the half term  break, both in terms of disruption to children's education and effectiveness of circuit breaker by earlier intervention.

Whilst I agree with with all that, I wonder if we are past the point at which a lockdown without non-essential workplaces, schools and other learning establishments will be effective.

The highest number of new cases were being recorded in the 11-19 age group before half term. IMHO, there should have been a national push to move to so called 'blended' learning, and reducing class sizes to a more manageable level, as many other countries have managed to do.

Perhaps blended learning for more senior pupils (who seem to be more liable to spread the virus) and coventional schooling for younger pupils?
Blended learning materials would have to be developed.
Blended learning would only really work for motivated pupils and those with access to computers.
Scottish teachers developed some blended materials during the lockdown period in expectation of them being used after the summer.(Scottish schools did not re-open till August and then opened fully)
Class sizes were a problem before the pandemic and must be worse now due to staff absences and self isolation. I would imagine temporary supply teachers will be a factor in spreading the virus.
Like the NHS, police and everything else in the public sector budgets have been pared to the minimum and there is no slack in the system.

https://education.gov.scot/improvement/learning-resources/education-recovery-group-blended-learning/
https://www.ecomscotland.com/resources/insight-blended-learning-six-reasons-why-you-need-to-mix-it-up/
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 31, 2020, 02:28:26 PM
Perhaps blended learning for more senior pupils (who seem to be more liable to spread the virus) and coventional schooling for younger pupils?

Sounds sensible, it's the secondary pupils that seem to be responsible for most of the positive cases in children - primary and nursery are generally in smaller schools. The equipment and internet access issues could have been sorted out by now.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 31, 2020, 02:55:22 PM
Perhaps blended learning for more senior pupils (who seem to be more liable to spread the virus) and coventional schooling for younger pupils?

Sounds sensible, it's the secondary pupils that seem to be responsible for most of the positive cases in children - primary and nursery are generally in smaller schools. The equipment and internet access issues could have been sorted out by now.
I pass a nursery every morning on my walk and the kids are still outside even in the cold and wet. they seem happy enough though.

Things must be bad when Johnson is making his speech this afternoon. Still the sooner he starts the better.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 31, 2020, 03:13:43 PM
Things must be bad when Johnson is making his speech this afternoon. Still the sooner he starts the better.

Indeed, the briefings that were leaked to the two newspapers said it was planned for Monday.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on October 31, 2020, 03:59:46 PM
Well the Tier system was introduced 14th October to prevent national lockdowns so it has not quite lasted three weeks.

Based on the Government's past performance on U turns, that sound about typical.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 31, 2020, 05:01:35 PM
Presser now delayed, reportedly until 6.30pm.

Still arguing over the details?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 31, 2020, 05:47:18 PM
This take on proceedings by Krishnan Guru-Murthy

Quote
The Downing St press conference is delayed again from 4pm to 5pm and now, maybe, 6.30pm. #lockdown2 has already been briefed to news organisations so lots won’t bother watching those questions about why we are here.

BBC blabbed all the details at 5pm.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on October 31, 2020, 06:52:51 PM
I knew this pandemic would end in tiers.


 :D Funny
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on October 31, 2020, 09:31:44 PM
Well, just what we expected. In my opinion too little and five weeks too late. Most of the teaching unions reckon the schools, colleges and universities should also be closed.

https://www.tes.com/news/Lockdown-close-schools-four-weeks-stop-covid-say-teachers (https://www.tes.com/news/Lockdown-close-schools-four-weeks-stop-covid-say-teachers)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8900445/Union-calls-schools-closed-England-enters-month-long-lockdown.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8900445/Union-calls-schools-closed-England-enters-month-long-lockdown.html)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 31, 2020, 09:35:13 PM
I'm hearing that the reason for the delays was Sunak threatening to resign.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on October 31, 2020, 09:41:30 PM
I'm hearing that the reason for the delays was Sunak threatening to resign.

SAGE advised a lockdown three weeks ago. Boris refused. ( Starmer supported it)

If SAGE had any sense, they would all have resigned then.

As it is their credibility may be so compromised with the public  that enforcement may become progressively  far more difficult than last time.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on October 31, 2020, 09:49:35 PM
SAGE advised a lockdown three weeks ago.
It was actually the 21st of September they made their recommendation. Six weeks come Monday. It was three weeks ago that the press got wind of the documents.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on October 31, 2020, 10:12:13 PM
SAGE advised a lockdown three weeks ago.
It was actually the 21st of September they made their recommendation. Six weeks come Monday. It was three weeks ago that the press got wind of the documents.

Indeed, Johnson knew about it back in September. It only came to light when the documents were released to the opposition and the press.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on October 31, 2020, 11:20:37 PM
Timeline here :-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/31/boris-johnson-england-coronavirus-lockdown-timeline

I thought Boris's speech tonight was the most coherent I've heard him give. See what 2.5 hours of rehearsal will do.

However,
How long did he say the last one was going to last?

Michael Deacon
@MichaelPDeacon

Is it a bad time to mention that the original three-month lockdown was announced like this?

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 01, 2020, 12:33:55 AM
However,
How long did he say the last one was going to last?

I think I did hear him say tonight that "things will be better in the spring", or something very similar. :(
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 01, 2020, 04:12:04 AM
IMO mostly down to these hundreds of llegal house parties broken up every weekend and these kids hugging and dancing in the street.

They should be identified and heavily fined.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 01, 2020, 08:12:32 AM
However,
How long did he say the last one was going to last?

I think I did hear him say tonight that "things will be better in the spring", or something very similar. :(

Is that Spring 2022 or 25?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on November 01, 2020, 10:59:44 AM
I watched some of the coverage before the press conference. There is an expert from Edinburgh University (Indian name, American accent) who, every time I have seen her, speaks pure common sense. She is not in favour of lockdowns although she conceded this one was "unavoidable" but laments the confused messaging over a long period of time. She also said that borders should be mostly closed and the social distancing and face mask messages emphasised again and again. The messaging needs to be clearer and simpler.

The low point, for me, in this whole mess was Johnson's bone headed instruction for people to stop working from home in (I think) the early summer. This gave a clear signal that things were returning to normal when they clearly were not. I also think the "Eat Out To Help Out" scheme was ill advised. That money would have been better spent in ensuring people were able to self isolate at home. A lot of people simply can't afford to lose 14 days pay.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 01, 2020, 11:47:06 AM
I watched some of the coverage before the press conference. There is an expert from Edinburgh University (Indian name, American accent) who, every time I have seen her, speaks pure common sense.

Chair of Global Public Health at The University of Edinburgh, Devi Sridhar - she was absolutely spot on and pulled no punches. She's a proponent of the SARS model of control that's been so successful in controlling the virus and limiting infections and deaths in the Far East, Australia and New Zealand.

She was immediately followed by another 'expert', Sunetra Gupta, who is firmly in the 'let it rip' brigade. Back in March, she suggested that 68% of the population had already had the virus, and that the threat was 'subsiding'. In May, she said that "the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out".

The interviews are on iplayer if anyone's interested, in the 'News' category, titled 'BBC News Special' dated 31/10/2020. Both interviews are near the start.


I also think the "Eat Out To Help Out" scheme was ill advised.

There was a study published a week or so ago that suggested it was responsible for a fifth of infection clusters over the summer.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 01, 2020, 11:50:30 AM
Watched Andrew Marr's interview with Michael Gove this morning and Gove all but stated that if the lockdown doesn't do the required job by the beginning of December, then it will be continued beyond that time. The internet will be all but useless on Christmas days as everyone tries to Zoom or whatever, their family.
The first Christmas my wife and I spent together were just the two of us in our small rented flat, and personally, it was my best Christmas since I stopped believing in Santa Claus.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 01, 2020, 11:53:53 AM
Help to Eat Out cost around £500m..

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 01, 2020, 11:54:45 AM
I watched some of the coverage before the press conference. There is an expert from Edinburgh University (Indian name, American accent) who, every time I have seen her, speaks pure common sense. She is not in favour of lockdowns although she conceded this one was "unavoidable" but laments the confused messaging over a long period of time. She also said that borders should be mostly closed and the social distancing and face mask messages emphasised again and again. The messaging needs to be clearer and simpler.

The low point, for me, in this whole mess was Johnson's bone headed instruction for people to stop working from home in (I think) the early summer. This gave a clear signal that things were returning to normal when they clearly were not. I also think the "Eat Out To Help Out" scheme was ill advised. That money would have been better spent in ensuring people were able to self isolate at home. A lot of people simply can't afford to lose 14 days pay.
Absolutely agree.
Devi Sridhar.
She makes the most sense to me too.
Excellent article on her here.
[link removed by Admin]

The Government were in too much of a hurry to open up the "economy" and released lockdown restrictions too quickly without proper monitoring of the effects and wthout a functional track trace and isolate system in operation.
If people can work at home they should be encouraged to do so. If people who cannot work from home cannot work or need to self -isolate they should be properly recompensed.
Eat out to help out. It's disgusting that while some people could not afford to eat, those that could afford it were subsidised to eat half priced meals.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 01, 2020, 12:06:03 PM
My step-daughter has been working from home since the very beginning. She hated it, but as she was shielding, she had no option. Now she has been moved to a four day week. Her company is making redundancies, and she told us that the axe might fall on her, if not immediately then eventually.
The thing is, she is, so job focussed that I know that despite only being paid for four days, she will continue to work five or more. She is salaried, but ofter works ten and twelve hours a day. And for little thanks.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 01, 2020, 12:50:06 PM
The thing is, she is, so job focussed that I know that despite only being paid for four days, she will continue to work five or more. She is salaried, but ofter works ten and twelve hours a day. And for little thanks.

I think that will apply to quite a few salaried folk. For lots of these jobs, the workload hasn't changed, just the remuneration.

I guess things could be worse though. Other half's uncle has been in hospital with the virus, they've just sent him home - but he's still very ill. I suspect they are clearing older patients out of hospitals here.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 01, 2020, 12:51:45 PM

Chair of Global Public Health at The University of Edinburgh, Devi Sridhar - she was absolutely spot on and pulled no punches. She's a proponent of the SARS model of control that's been so successful in controlling the virus and limiting infections and deaths in the Far East, Australia and New Zealand.

She was immediately followed by another 'expert', Sunetra Gupta, who is firmly in the 'let it rip' brigade. Back in March, she suggested that 68% of the population had already had the virus, and that the threat was 'subsiding'. In May, she said that "the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out".

The interviews are on iplayer if anyone's interested, in the 'News' category, titled 'BBC News Special' dated 31/10/2020. Both interviews are near the start.


You beat me to it again.
I missed her interview last night. (Meal time)
Watched it just now and thought it was excellent. (Starts at about 21 Minutes into the programme)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000pj5h/bbc-news-special-coronavirus-update-31102020

It's a good job the BBC had all these experts lined up for interview- Maybe they suspected Johnson might run late.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 01, 2020, 01:26:12 PM
Running late for a critical announcement means there is major dissent..

Probably the Chancellor who imo is grossly overrated (any fool can spend money as the Public Accounts Committee when it does an analysis of Covid spending two year too late will  find.. approximately £2b excess on PPE, £3B unaccounted for , Test and Trace £5B and  the costs of locking down too late approx £50B.. ) who realises we are spending money like water and getting no return or in the case of Eating Out Subsidies just creating more Covid cases.

(Our family has refused to eat out since the pandemic started due to the presence of idiots # near us when eating.
# not social distancing)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 01, 2020, 02:16:42 PM
Same here ...... my life is bi-weeklyTesco (08:00 when almost empty), B&Q circa fortnightly at 07:00, empty again, and a weekly 1 to 1 support bubble.

Sorted
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Derkie54 on November 01, 2020, 02:19:01 PM
Having lost a member of our extended family to Covid it annoys us that we have not got this under some sort of control in this country............other countries have.

The lack of clear instruction and change of direction shows they are reacting not proactive, always behind the curve.

Minister's say we must follow the rules to keep safe , just like Cummings, Jenrick and others then !!

The thing that annoys me most is when these people are held to account Boris will say the matter is closed.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 01, 2020, 03:05:17 PM
Having lost a member of our extended family to Covid it annoys us that we have not got this under some sort of control in this country............other countries have.

So sorry to hear that.

On the rest, I absolutely agree with you - we should have been in a better place than this by now.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 01, 2020, 03:22:55 PM
I have used B&Q a couple of times recently, but I order online to Click and Collect. Then it is just a case of in the door, quote my order number, push the barrow back out the same door and away.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: John Ratsey on November 01, 2020, 04:54:11 PM
They congratulated themselves on the previous lockdown appearing to work. However, I've seen no assessment of how much of the previous reduction was due to lockdown and how much was due to summer weather. We know that flu comes in the autumn and disappears in the spring and the virus is effectively a particularly nasty version of flu. By now they should also know what the key spreading mechanisms and places are. With facemasks, screens, sanitiser and separation shops should be better places than many yet the "non-essential" shops are being required to close and their owners will be wondering when they'll be able to shift their Christmas stuff.

Maybe the new lockdown will do its bit to "save the NHS" again (I wonder why more effort hasn't been put into increasing capacity ready for the winter surge in health problems- a challenge in a normal year) and we'll be able to have a few more normal weeks in December followed by Boris taking over the TV on Christmas day to announce the next lockdown.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 01, 2020, 05:03:29 PM
"Research by Sage found that only a QUARTER of people told to self-isolate hadn't left their homes."

12th September 2020

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12650195/brits-hefty-fines-breaking-isolation-coronavirus/

No chance of stopping the spread of any epidemic then.  (And not enough police to catch them)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 01, 2020, 05:31:58 PM
Australia and New Zealand had enforced 14-day quarantine for anyone entering the country. They were put up in a secure hotel and had to pay their own costs. As an island, we should do that. The problem we have are all the goods brought into the country by truck. Not something the Antipodeans have to worry about. Perhaps we should have a system whereby trailers are loaded onto the ferry then UK tractors and drivers meet them at this side.
Mind you, after the 1st of January it may not be an issue.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 01, 2020, 05:35:03 PM
They congratulated themselves on the previous lockdown appearing to work. However, I've seen no assessment of how much of the previous reduction was due to lockdown and how much was due to summer weather. We know that flu comes in the autumn and disappears in the spring and the virus is effectively a particularly nasty version of flu. By now they should also know what the key spreading mechanisms and places are. With facemasks, screens, sanitiser and separation shops should be better places than many yet the "non-essential" shops are being required to close and their owners will be wondering when they'll be able to shift their Christmas stuff.

Maybe the new lockdown will do its bit to "save the NHS" again (I wonder why more effort hasn't been put into increasing capacity ready for the winter surge in health problems- a challenge in a normal year) and we'll be able to have a few more normal weeks in December followed by Boris taking over the TV on Christmas day to announce the next lockdown.

Yup,  lots of evidence appearing that show lockdowns do not work, in many cases infections were falling before the lockdowns were introduced - that is probably when the governments had people on their side before they took unprecedented ( and arguably unconstitutional ) powers to close down everyones lives and upset an awful lot of otherwise reasonable people........

[links removed by Admin]

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on November 01, 2020, 06:47:47 PM
Very sorry to hear that Derkie54.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 01, 2020, 08:57:59 PM
Notified by school that they have had a further two confirmed cases over the holiday.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 01, 2020, 11:14:39 PM
Notified by school that they have had a further two confirmed cases over the holiday.
Sorry to hear that.
Perhaps community transmission rather than in school though, since it was over the holidays
How many pupils  will have to self-isolate because of that?
I was wondering earlier how long schools could continue to be viable/safe due to staff shortages and self-isolations.
Perhaps it might be better to shut schools to increase the effectiveness of the lockdown and thereby decrease its duration.
I think I'm changing my mind. ::)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 01, 2020, 11:55:04 PM
They congratulated themselves on the previous lockdown appearing to work. However, I've seen no assessment of how much of the previous reduction was due to lockdown and how much was due to summer weather.
I don't think there can be any doubt that lockdowns are effective in terms of reduing infections.
Anything which reduces person to person interaction will reduce the transmission of the virus.
It would be impossible to quantify how much the reduction is due to a lockdown and how much is due to other factors(weather, seasonal behaviour other infections etc.)
The use of lockdowns is however very damaging to the economy and peoples' well being.
It should have been used once to bring down the rate of infection so that R was well below one and then the restrictions carefully removed while the rate was monitored carefully by testing tracing and isolation. If the R value rose, further restrictions (but not a full lockdown) could be imposed to maintain R below 1.
The lockdown should not have been released till R was well below 1 because it is a retropective measure and so it takes a week or two to know if R was getting close to 1.
Instead the lockdown was released completely without an effective track and trace system in place. People were encouraged to go back to work and to eat out to help out.
The virus got out of control again.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/02/covid-lockdowns-are-cost-of-self-isolation-failures-says-who-expert


Maybe the new lockdown will do its bit to "save the NHS" again (I wonder why more effort hasn't been put into increasing capacity ready for the winter surge in health problems- a challenge in a normal year) and we'll be able to have a few more normal weeks in December followed by Boris taking over the TV on Christmas day to announce the next lockdown.
They can build physical facilities (they still have the Nightingale Hospitals) but they can't manufacture doctors or nurses.

Last edit Added link. Well worth a read.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 02, 2020, 06:48:18 AM
Words fail me:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-54769055
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 02, 2020, 07:06:45 AM
That's Scotlands Tier system started today. We are in Tier 2. For those in Tier 1 and 2, there is a slackening of restrictions. Tier 3 is pretty much the same as the Central Belt was already under.
These Tier levels will be reviewed weekly and will shift up or down as required. Scots have been advised not to travel to England "unless they really need to do so" such as work, health care etc.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 02, 2020, 07:34:14 AM
Scots have been advised not to travel to England "unless they really need to do so" such as work, health care etc.
I think this is being played up by the media.
Really they are being asked not to travel to or from areas with different levels of restrictions or indeed avoid unnecessary travel.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 02, 2020, 09:25:43 AM
Quote from Nicola's Tweet (my italics).

"People should not travel to or from level 3 areas in Scotland and for now, "we are asking people not to travel to or from England at all, except for essential purposes
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 02, 2020, 09:30:39 AM
Notified by school that they have had a further two confirmed cases over the holiday.
Sorry to hear that.
Perhaps community transmission rather than in school though, since it was over the holidays
How many pupils  will have to self-isolate because of that?

There seems to be significant delays before parents are notified, up to a week for previous cases. Information given to parents is minimal, we don't even know if it's a child or a staff member. Children are in 'year bubbles' of about 300, but it appears that only form groups are being isolated for each case, 15-20 children - seems a bit pointless as the year groups are mixing most of the day.

Perhaps it might be better to shut schools to increase the effectiveness of the lockdown and thereby decrease its duration.
I think I'm changing my mind. ::)

I'm sure a lockdown would be far more effective if all schools are non-essential workplaces were shut down, but we can't keep doing that unless we have an answer to what comes after. The only thing that has been proven to work is the zero-covid strategy.

At the very least, we need to reduce the risk of transmission with reduced classroom numbers and a stop to teachers moving between schools, which is still happening between academy group schools, and of course with supply teachers. Other countries have seconded public buildings for more space, and employed blended learning to reduce numbers.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 02, 2020, 09:40:40 AM
They can build physical facilities (they still have the Nightingale Hospitals) but they can't manufacture doctors or nurses.

If the Nightingale Hospitals do end up being used, I can't see them offering anything but palliative care. There simply are no staff.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 02, 2020, 09:53:00 AM
I know some doctors* recalled from retirement in March for Covid.. and never used..

I assume they will still be available.

* including one senior consultant
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 02, 2020, 09:54:55 AM
Quote from Nicola's Tweet (my italics).

"People should not travel to or from level 3 areas in Scotland and for now, "we are asking people not to travel to or from England at all, except for essential purposes
Might as well post the whole thing so that it can be taken in context. The part you refer to is in setion 4

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1322501925682761728
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 02, 2020, 09:58:17 AM
I know some doctors* recalled from retirement in March for Covid.. and never used..

I assume they will still be available.

* including one senior consultant
I don't think many retired dotors would be keen to, or should be expected to work on the front line.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 02, 2020, 12:07:21 PM

Perhaps it might be better to shut schools to increase the effectiveness of the lockdown and thereby decrease its duration.
I think I'm changing my mind. ::)

I'm sure a lockdown would be far more effective if all schools are non-essential workplaces were shut down, but we can't keep doing that unless we have an answer to what comes after. The only thing that has been proven to work is the zero-covid strategy.

At the very least, we need to reduce the risk of transmission with reduced classroom numbers and a stop to teachers moving between schools, which is still happening between academy group schools, and of course with supply teachers. Other countries have seconded public buildings for more space, and employed blended learning to reduce numbers.

All the political parties seem determined to keep schools open but I fear that lack of staff will make the system unmanageable before too long.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 02, 2020, 01:49:31 PM
It looks like Scotland may be heading for lockdown too. Nicola explained, at today's update, that the Furlough payment might only be available to the devolved governments until Dec 2nd. In that case, it may be better to move areas into Tier 4 now rather than later, when no support will be available.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 02, 2020, 07:08:29 PM
It looks like Scotland may be heading for lockdown too. Nicola explained, at today's update, that the Furlough payment might only be available to the devolved governments until Dec 2nd. In that case, it may be better to move areas into Tier 4 now rather than later, when no support will be available.
Looks like she's being forced into it.
Blackford asked Johnson about the furlough money this afternoon and Johnson (deliberately?) misunderstood the question.
Still Scotland will start from a much better position than England due to the last two months of harder restrictions while Johnson dithered and there won't be the differential in  restrictions attracting people from the North of England to cross the border.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 02, 2020, 07:22:49 PM
Heard Johnson mention improved treatment and therapies a few times, which is great and will undoubtedly improve outcomes, but they won't help when patients are being turned away.

Interesting to see that reported positive tests are a little lower today, half term effect?

Brother (ex stroke patient and key worker) texted me half an hour ago, he's got to self isolate for 10 days after being in contact with a confirmed case.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 02, 2020, 08:18:41 PM
Looks like she's being forced into it.
Most definitely. Lockdown now and get government support or possibly have to lockdown later and getting nothing.
It would certainly stop drinkers (from both north and south) driving into the borders for a few pints.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 03, 2020, 04:58:28 AM
I don't think pubs or any hospitality venues should have opened as soon as they did. Social distancing and common sense don't mix with alcohol.

It will be interesting to read how Diwali festivities are breached on the 14th.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 03, 2020, 07:57:15 AM
Looks like she's being forced into it.
Most definitely. Lockdown now and get government support or possibly have to lockdown later and getting nothing.
It would certainly stop drinkers (from both north and south) driving into the borders for a few pints.
Maybes aye, Maybes no
In answer to Douglas Ross later, Johnson replied
“If other parts of the UK decide to go into measures which require the furlough scheme, then of course it is available to them. That has to be right.

“That applies not just now, but in the future as well."  Quoted from the Scotsman.

Can Johnson be trusted to keep his word though? (that's a rhetorical question btw.)

Nicola Sturgeon tweeted
If this bears out, it is v welcome. However @scotgov
 seeking urgent confirmation from Treasury that it will be exactly as we asked for - furlough beyond 2 December, non time-limited and on same basis as available through Nov, inc on eligibility and 80% wages paid.

Edit Added NS tweet

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 03, 2020, 09:22:33 AM
I cannot see it being non-time limited. Unless of course England needs more than four weeks. They won't give Scotland more than England gets.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 03, 2020, 11:52:20 AM
If Scotland continues with present plan and it is successful in cotrolling virus, they will have saved the treasury money.
If however infection rates rise and they need to lockdown the Scottish Government needs to ensure that furlough money is still available.
Hope there is more clarity at 12.15 briefing.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 04, 2020, 09:03:45 AM
Unlike BoB this damage is self inflicted,  almost the reverse of WW2 1940 where the few were asked to make a sacrifice to save the many, at the moment the many ( >80% ) are being sacrificed to save the few (<20% ).  The working age, economically active are seeing their jobs and pretty much everything else disappear - and will be left with a massive bill to repay, meanwhile to mainly economically inactive oldies ( and I am one ) who could shield without losing their jobs and houses are being protected at the expense of younger ones.   Talking about bombs - if this virus is a 'bomb' it has >65 written on it,  it is a smart bomb ( OK they weren't around in WW2).  When 95% of virus deaths have been in over 65's and 50% of those were over 85 what is needed is for oldies to take to air-raid shelters and the youngsters to stay up topside keeping the country going...

Younger people are not just being asked to 'put that light out' and draw the curtains on their houses and stay indoors,  they are being asked to put the lights out and draw the curtains on their futures. 
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 04, 2020, 09:32:51 AM
What about the 5,275 deaths of those aged 45-64 from Covid-19? Do we disregard them? Or the 610 between 15-44? My wife reckons it is God's revenge for f***ing the planet. Or is that a conspiracy theory too?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 04, 2020, 10:49:13 AM
All down to China again.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 04, 2020, 11:59:06 AM
Unlike BoB this damage is self inflicted .
Nope. It's due to an unthinking virus.
  almost the reverse of WW2 1940 where the few were asked to make a sacrifice to save the many, at the moment the many ( >80% ) are being sacrificed to save the few (<20% ).  The working age, economically active are seeing their jobs and pretty much everything else disappear - and will be left with a massive bill to repay, meanwhile to mainly economically inactive oldies ( and I am one ) who could shield without losing their jobs and houses are being protected at the expense of younger ones.
Nope. We are all in this together. Even if all the oldies were killed off ( It's impossible to shield them completely) the virus would continue to multiply amongst the young and devastate our health systems, education systems and other vital services.
Trying to live with the uncontrolled virus would be more costly than controlling it.
Life cannot return to anything like normal until the virus is brought under control.
 
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 04, 2020, 01:00:34 PM
Unlike BoB this damage is self inflicted .
Nope. It's due to an unthinking virus.
  almost the reverse of WW2 1940 where the few were asked to make a sacrifice to save the many, at the moment the many ( >80% ) are being sacrificed to save the few (<20% ).  The working age, economically active are seeing their jobs and pretty much everything else disappear - and will be left with a massive bill to repay, meanwhile to mainly economically inactive oldies ( and I am one ) who could shield without losing their jobs and houses are being protected at the expense of younger ones.
Nope. We are all in this together. Even if all the oldies were killed off ( It's impossible to shield them completely) the virus would continue to multiply amongst the young and devastate our health systems, education systems and other vital services.
Trying to live with the uncontrolled virus would be more costly than controlling it.
Life cannot return to anything like normal until the virus is brought under control.

I never said the virus was self inflicted, shambolic panic lockdowns ( often the infection rate is falling anyway before the lockdown starts ) and the tyranny of the tame experts have turned a crisis into a self-inflicted catastrophy.

The virus for 99.9% of under 60's is no worse than the common cold - hardly likely to 'devastate our health system' . The common cold is also a coronavirus and there has never been a vaccine for it,  so looks like this covid sucker is gonna be around for quite a while and we cannot keep having these lockdowns.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 04, 2020, 01:02:39 PM
All down to China again.

Scientists have apparently found 'made in PRC' on the virus......
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 04, 2020, 01:34:34 PM
Apparently 80%+ of current infections are a Spanish version.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8894415/Is-mutated-strain-Covid-19-blame-Europes-second-wave-Study.html
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 04, 2020, 01:47:59 PM
Unlike BoB this damage is self inflicted .
Nope. It's due to an unthinking virus.
  almost the reverse of WW2 1940 where the few were asked to make a sacrifice to save the many, at the moment the many ( >80% ) are being sacrificed to save the few (<20% ).  The working age, economically active are seeing their jobs and pretty much everything else disappear - and will be left with a massive bill to repay, meanwhile to mainly economically inactive oldies ( and I am one ) who could shield without losing their jobs and houses are being protected at the expense of younger ones.
Nope. We are all in this together. Even if all the oldies were killed off ( It's impossible to shield them completely) the virus would continue to multiply amongst the young and devastate our health systems, education systems and other vital services.
Trying to live with the uncontrolled virus would be more costly than controlling it.
Life cannot return to anything like normal until the virus is brought under control.

I never said the virus was self inflicted, shambolic panic lockdowns ( often the infection rate is falling anyway before the lockdown starts ) and the tyranny of the tame experts have turned a crisis into a self-inflicted catastrophy.


That's what I understood you to mean, although you seem to have contradicted yourself in your next post. ::)

All down to China again.

Scientists have apparently found 'made in PRC' on the virus......
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 04, 2020, 01:52:00 PM
Apparently 80%+ of current infections are a Spanish version.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8894415/Is-mutated-strain-Covid-19-blame-Europes-second-wave-Study.html
That is quite a percentage increase since I first mentioned the Spanish mutation back in Post #68. It was 50% back then.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 04, 2020, 03:14:58 PM
If Scotland continues with present plan and it is successful in controlling virus, they will have saved the treasury money.
If however infection rates rise and they need to lockdown the Scottish Government needs to ensure that furlough money is still available.
Hope there is more clarity at 12.15 briefing.
No clarity yesterday or today.

Nice one
"Patrick Grady (SNP) starts by pointing out that Boris Johnson did not stay in the chamber to listen to the speech by his predecessor.

He says the SNP will not be voting on this measure, because it is England-only.  (England lockdown)

And he picks up on the PM’s claim that the SNP won’t take yes for an answer on furlough. "They will take yes for an answer when it is put in writing, in a letter to the Scottish government", he says."
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on November 04, 2020, 03:16:55 PM
The virus for 99.9% of under 60's is no worse than the common cold - hardly likely to 'devastate our health system' . The common cold is also a coronavirus and there has never been a vaccine for it,  so looks like this covid sucker is gonna be around for quite a while and we cannot keep having these lockdowns.
Since you continue to spout nonsense, I am not going to engage with you on this subject again. I will just say that of the ten or so friends and colleagues under 60 that I know have had Covid, nearly all of them had it bad, suffering way more than just a cold, and one was hospitalised. I will admit that their kids seemed to shake it off fairly easily. But you assertion that Covid-19 be allowed to run amok through the population is seriously misguided, in my opinion.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on November 04, 2020, 03:37:56 PM
The virus for 99.9% of under 60's is no worse than the common cold - hardly likely to 'devastate our health system' . The common cold is also a coronavirus and there has never been a vaccine for it,  so looks like this covid sucker is gonna be around for quite a while and we cannot keep having these lockdowns.
Since you continue to spout nonsense, I am not going to engage with you on this subject again. I will just say that of the ten or so friends and colleagues under 60 that I know have had Covid, nearly all of them had it bad, suffering way more than just a cold, and one was hospitalised. I will admit that their kids seemed to shake it off fairly easily. But you assertion that Covid-19 be allowed to run amok through the population is seriously misguided, in my opinion.

There's a debate to be had about the best way to tackle this disease but denial of its capacity to overwhelm health care systems and kill lots of people is, frankly, perverse. I am a bit of a lockdown sceptic but I absolutely accept that this is not just another "Flu" which, as I understand it, kills about 11,000 in the UK per annum. This has already killed approaching 50,000.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 04, 2020, 04:15:31 PM

[/quote]

There's a debate to be had about the best way to tackle this disease but denial of its capacity to overwhelm health care systems and kill lots of people is, frankly, perverse. I am a bit of a lockdown sceptic but I absolutely accept that this is not just another "Flu" which, as I understand it, kills about 11,000 in the UK per annum. This has already killed approaching 50,000.
[/quote]

Average deaths from flu 2012-17 were around 17,000pa in the UK.

But this is dependent on an effective vaccine being available. Normal practise is to forecast which exiting viruses are likely to exist in the UK next winter and make up and produce a vaccine to treat the most likely strains.
In 2018 the forecast mix was wrong and deaths were around 50,000. Many deaths are over 65s in ill health.

SO if we get a flu epidemic this year ,Covid may have already killed in Wave 1 some of the potential flu victims.
Free flu vaccination take up in the over 65s was around 70% in 2019 . There are over 12 million over 65 in the UK so IF 2020 vaccination rates are say 80% (there has been a huge demand this year) that still leaves c 2.4Million unvaccinated 65s vulnerable to both flu and covid. Apparently risk of complications could  rise sharply in that age group  if they get both.

(I did some basic reading months ago - all information is available with Google)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 04, 2020, 07:11:46 PM
Theresa May talking a lot of sense..

https://order-order.com/2020/11/04/theresa-mays-clarion-call-for-a-lockdown-cost-benefits-analysis/?utm_source=Guy+Fawkes%27+Blog+List&utm_campaign=472fb26a7e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_10_20_02_09_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_547885726c-472fb26a7e-230033269
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 04, 2020, 07:25:58 PM
Unlike BoB this damage is self inflicted .
Nope. It's due to an unthinking virus.
  almost the reverse of WW2 1940 where the few were asked to make a sacrifice to save the many, at the moment the many ( >80% ) are being sacrificed to save the few (<20% ).  The working age, economically active are seeing their jobs and pretty much everything else disappear - and will be left with a massive bill to repay, meanwhile to mainly economically inactive oldies ( and I am one ) who could shield without losing their jobs and houses are being protected at the expense of younger ones.
Nope. We are all in this together. Even if all the oldies were killed off ( It's impossible to shield them completely) the virus would continue to multiply amongst the young and devastate our health systems, education systems and other vital services.
Trying to live with the uncontrolled virus would be more costly than controlling it.
Life cannot return to anything like normal until the virus is brought under control.

I never said the virus was self inflicted, shambolic panic lockdowns ( often the infection rate is falling anyway before the lockdown starts ) and the tyranny of the tame experts have turned a crisis into a self-inflicted catastrophy.


That's what I understood you to mean, although you seem to have contradicted yourself in your next post. ::)

All down to China again.

Scientists have apparently found 'made in PRC' on the virus......

I have always said this virus was the fault of the Chinese (  most of them are, due to their strange habits with animals ) - I did not contradict myself because all I said was it was not entirely the fault of the virus, but governments ( not just UK ) panic stricken, ill thought out reaction to it, based on the OTT predictions of just a few tame experts - that have made a catastrophe out of a crisis....
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 04, 2020, 09:10:16 PM

I have always said this virus was the fault of the Chinese (  most of them are, due to their strange habits with animals ) - I did not contradict myself because all I said was it was not entirely the fault of the virus, but governments ( not just UK ) panic stricken, ill thought out reaction to it, based on the OTT predictions of just a few tame experts - that have made a catastrophe out of a crisis....

What has made a catastrophe out of a crisis has been the government's inept handling of the situation including,

Not testing (even temperature testing) at airports or quarantining or even following up passengers from Italy in the early stages when the disease was prevalent there.

Allowing sporting events like the Cheltenham Race Meeting and the Liverpool  Atletico Madrid  football match.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/liverpool-vs-atletico-madrid-caused-22087263

Allowing Music concerts (eg Manic Street Preachers Tour)

Delaying initial lockdown until infections were out of control. The sooner the lockdown the easier it would have been to control . The shorter it would have been and the less damagng to the economy.

Not having an effective track and trace system

Moving hospital patients into care homes.

Inadequate PPE.

Coming out of lockdown too soon without a proper plan and no track trace and isolate system in place

Ecouragement to come back to work.

Eat out to help out.

No ban on foreign travel and still no check on incoming or returning tourists

Delay in reccommending wearing of face masks.

Not having a track and trace system in place despite boasts of World beating systems.

Mixed messaging leading to flouting of rules. (See Attachment)

Lack of leadership (hiding in fridges) and avoiding media. Different unprepared minion doing media rounds in morning.

Contracts being handed out untendered  to cronies with no previous experience.

Disregarding advice from Scientists and Opposition to implement brief Circuit Breaker to avoid secnd lockdown

Delaying second lockdown thereby ensuring that it would have to be longer and more expensive in terms of lives and damage to economy.

I'm sure I must have missed some.

The World Beating Phone App.

The Dominic Cummings Road Trip.

Oh did I mention not having a Track and trace system in place.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-test-centre-latest-update-b421178.html

Edit added link and attachment

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on November 04, 2020, 09:20:19 PM
Theresa May talking a lot of sense..

Well that's a first!  ::)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 05, 2020, 07:12:18 AM
So that is England in Lockdown and Scotland looking at bringing in a law to restrict travel (currently just advice). Wales is fining parents whos kids flout the rules and Trump wants to start his own revolution. Glad all's well with the world.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 05, 2020, 08:58:56 AM
As many as 17 million minks are to be culled in Denmark after a mutated version of the coronavirus that can spread to humans was detected on mink farms. I know it has affected big cats in the Bronx Zoo. We had better pray it doesn't get into the cat or dog population in this country.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on November 05, 2020, 09:02:45 AM
The most surprising part of that story for me @Jocko is that there are still mink farms and there is enough demand that there are 17 million mink being farmed in Denmark alone!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 05, 2020, 09:07:37 AM
Although furs are no longer "in" in the west, Russia and China still have a huge, and growing, trade in furs.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 05, 2020, 10:15:45 AM
Borat has a fur lined codpiece.. or so I am told... ;D
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on November 05, 2020, 11:15:29 AM
Although furs are no longer "in" in the west, Russia and China still have a huge, and growing, trade in furs.
I did not know that, thanks.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on November 05, 2020, 11:17:33 AM
The most surprising part of that story for me @Jocko is that there are still mink farms and there is enough demand that there are 17 million mink being farmed in Denmark alone!
Although furs are no longer "in" in the west, Russia and China still have a huge, and growing, trade in furs.

Nothing to do with the thread topic but I can't resist: there's an interesting conundrum there. Fake fur is actually plastic: creating, wearing, and washing it uses non-renewable resources and releases lots of micro-plastic into the environment and into the foodchain. Which is all avoidable because farming real fur does none of that and is more environmentally-friendly (although presumably no-one's asked the animals). So this debate pitches the animal-rights activists against the environmental activists.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Basil on November 05, 2020, 01:31:16 PM
We don't really need either of them do we.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 05, 2020, 03:11:00 PM
Real fur is actually cheaper than Faux Fur so unscrupulous manufacturers, many in the far east, use real fur and sell it as Faux Fur. Your jacket with a Faux Fur collar can contain rabbit, cat or anything else they can get a hold off.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on November 05, 2020, 03:11:47 PM
We don't really need either of them do we.
Do you mean real fur and fake fur?

Or animal rights activists and environmental activists?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on November 05, 2020, 03:13:10 PM
Real fur is actually cheaper than Faux Fur so unscrupulous manufacturers, many in the far east, use real fur and sell it as Faux Fur. Your jacket with a Faux Fur collar can contain rabbit, cat or anything else they can get a hold off.

I would be deeply suspicious of any fake fur coming from the USA in the next few weeks, especially if it is long, ginger and whispy.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 05, 2020, 03:15:59 PM
I think you may find that genuine fake fur.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 09, 2020, 09:38:35 AM
According to Office for National statistics the average age of Covid-19 victims is 79 for men and 84 for women.  Add to that that only 8% of those who died did not have one or more chronic co-morbidities and a Covid victim is definitely in the 'frail old person ' category.  If you have read the Spectator article I posted previously as a PDF this is the reason we cannot afford another lockdown.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54433305

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsduetocoronaviruscovid19comparedwithdeathsfrominfluenzaandpneumoniaenglandandwales/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 09, 2020, 10:59:52 AM
According to Office for National statistics the average age of Covid-19 victims is 79 for men and 84 for women.  Add to that that only 8% of those who died did not have one or more chronic co-morbidities and a Covid victim is definitely in the 'frail old person ' category.
So what you are saying is just leave them to catch the virus and die lonely at home. Most of the people you refer to cannot be isolated because they need care, either by family members or NHS carers, sometimes both.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 09, 2020, 11:10:40 AM
According to Office for National statistics the average age of Covid-19 victims is 79 for men and 84 for women.  Add to that that only 8% of those who died did not have one or more chronic co-morbidities and a Covid victim is definitely in the 'frail old person ' category.
So what you are saying is just leave them to catch the virus and die lonely at home. Most of the people you refer to cannot be isolated because they need care, either by family members or NHS carers, sometimes both.

It is unfortunately Government Policy that  makes residents in care homes unlikely to have any visitors. Many have died without relatives seeing them.  (indeed the same is enforced in childbirth).

It seems inhumane , is inhumane and I am surprised a national newspaper has not run a campaign about it.

So if we can let the elderly die alone in Care Homes, we can let them die at home alone (written as an illustration of how inhumane it all is)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 09, 2020, 11:30:17 AM
So what you are saying is just leave them to catch the virus and die lonely at home. Most of the people you refer to cannot be isolated because they need care, either by family members or NHS carers, sometimes both.

That's what I was saying earlier. It's all very well saying shield the vulnerable and let it rip, but it's impossible for those that rely on personal care.

It is unfortunately Government Policy that  makes residents in care homes unlikely to have any visitors. Many have died without relatives seeing them.  (indeed the same is enforced in childbirth).

It seems inhumane , is inhumane and I am surprised a national newspaper has not run a campaign about it.

So if we can let the elderly die alone in Care Homes, we can let them die at home alone (written as an illustration of how inhumane it all is)

Why are we still preventing people from visiting care homes when the technology exists to test people in 15-20 minutes? All the billions that have been wasted on systems that do not work, or contracts to mysterious suppliers with no track record, and we cannot equip care homes with this technology.

The only thing I would say about care homes is that it is, at least, a reasonably controlled environment, where staff should be tested on a regular basis - although even this appears to be less than rigorous as time has gone on. Home carers have no such requirements, and their employers rely upon them to self report any symptoms - these carers often have no sick pay other than SSP.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 09, 2020, 11:39:28 AM
According to Office for National statistics the average age of Covid-19 victims is 79 for men and 84 for women.  Add to that that only 8% of those who died did not have one or more chronic co-morbidities and a Covid victim is definitely in the 'frail old person ' category.
So what you are saying is just leave them to catch the virus and die lonely at home. Most of the people you refer to cannot be isolated because they need care, either by family members or NHS carers, sometimes both.

It is usual for every hospital in the world to use a 'frailty index' to asses whether to carry out treatment on patients.  The older and more frail they are the less likely they are to get treatment.  This is done on a cost/benefit calculation ( yes cost comes into everything ).  Say a person with multiple underlying conditions that cannot be cured needs a very expensive hip replacement or heart / organ transplant but are judged to only have a few years left to live, then they will not get the treatment, and the money and resources will be allocated to someone more able to benefit from the treatment - which normally means they have longer left to live. 

http://www.tvscn.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/7.-Martin-Vernon.pdf

Shutting the whole economy down triggering a recession longer than 2008, destroying jobs and the prospects of younger people, that is simply too big a price to pay. It is hard enough for younger people anyway because there are no real careers or 'jobs for life' any more, just 'jobs' that often are short term and low wage.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Basil on November 09, 2020, 12:35:49 PM
We don't really need either of them do we.
Do you mean real fur and fake fur?

Or animal rights activists and environmental activists?

Sorry I meant real or fake fur !
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 09, 2020, 01:59:40 PM
It is usual for every hospital in the world to use a 'frailty index' to asses whether to carry out treatment on patients.  The older and more frail they are the less likely they are to get treatment.  This is done on a cost/benefit calculation ( yes cost comes into everything ).

What you are espousing the very definition of treatment rationing, and that is not usual in every hospital in the world. In a system where treatment was not rationed, for example a patient in a private hospital paying for treatment, age or frailty would not be any bar to treatment.

Cost/benefit does not always dictate the NHS treatment you receive - there are many people who are alive today due to vastly expensive treatments, costing far in excess of the possible value of the contribution they can ever make to society. It's not always about cost, there can be many reasons why what is medically possible is the morally right thing to do.

Say a person with multiple underlying conditions that cannot be cured needs a very expensive hip replacement or heart / organ transplant but are judged to only have a few years left to live, then they will not get the treatment

Not true, there are many people with terminal illnesses who receive said treatments from the NHS - I know someone with terminal cancer that had a hip replacement.

There is a very complex balance to be considered between the cost of the treatment, the cost of ongoing care if the treatment is not carried out, and the moral aspect of a person's quality of life, even if that remaining life is relatively short. If what you say is true, why would we offer any treatment at all for anyone with a terminal illness? Or even people in their 80s or 90s? The NHS expends a great deal of capacity treating those with terminal conditions, to improve the quality of their remaining lives, and to extend them. There is no material gain to society from this, it is a purely moral endeavour towards the patient and their families.

We cannot forget that when we withhold treatment from older covid patients, we are not simply talking about their future quality of life, we are probably signing their death warrant. By allowing this virus to run out of control again, we are being forced to acquiesce to an arbitrary system which triages patients at home based on their age and/or underlying conditions, barring them from treatment and leaving them to die at home. This is a direct consequence of allowing the system to become overwhelmed.

I understand that you are arguing between deaths and financial ruin, but by not fully committing to a zero-covid policy, the UK Government has spectacularly failed to protect its citizens from either. All european countries appear to have followed similar strategies and have fared little better.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 09, 2020, 03:16:45 PM
Light at the end of the tunnel.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/09/covid-19-vaccine-candidate-effective-pfizer-biontech

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/pfizer-covid-vaccine-scientists-react-with-caution-and-questions/ar-BB1aQ41v
Edit added second link
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 09, 2020, 03:30:28 PM

It is unfortunately Government Policy that  makes residents in care homes unlikely to have any visitors. Many have died without relatives seeing them.  (indeed the same is enforced in childbirth).

It seems inhumane , is inhumane and I am surprised a national newspaper has not run a campaign about it.

So if we can let the elderly die alone in Care Homes, we can let them die at home alone (written as an illustration of how inhumane it all is)
It may seem inhumane but is it not preferable to allowing the virus into the care homeand infecting and possibly killing vulnerable residents?


Why are we still preventing people from visiting care homes when the technology exists to test people in 15-20 minutes? All the billions that have been wasted on systems that do not work, or contracts to mysterious suppliers with no track record, and we cannot equip care homes with this technology.


Unfortunately the technology  is not 100% reliable.
Even with more efficient testing the test is only valid at the time of testing.
The only way to fully protect those in care homes would be to have carers and relatives living in.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 09, 2020, 04:40:22 PM
Nicola Sturgeon was questioned on the let it rip, sacrifice the old and save the economy brigade. She tore the questioner up for @rse paper. She said that not only was it ethically and morally wrong, but it wouldn't help the economy in the long run. She talked about a young journalist, with no underlying health problems, who seven months on is still not fit to work due to "Long Covid" and there are hundreds like that. Not all a burden on the state but many no longer living an enjoyable and useful life.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 09, 2020, 05:16:40 PM
Unfortunately the technology  is not 100% reliable.

No, it's not as accurate as the PCR test, but is it accurate enough to minimise the risk sufficiently? I suspect it hasn't even been looked at.

Even results from PCR tests can be comfortably returned in less than 24 hrs, given adequate resources.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 09, 2020, 05:23:18 PM
Seemingly they are using the new test in Liverpool with their "Moonshot" programme.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 09, 2020, 07:18:43 PM
Seemingly they are using the new test in Liverpool with their "Moonshot" programme.

These antigen test have been around for months, but the new types being trialled give fast results, and they are cheap, making mass testing a reality.

Just for the avoidance of any doubt, when I said

is it accurate enough to minimise the risk sufficiently? I suspect it hasn't even been looked at.

... I meant using these fast tests for care home visitors. They have been in use in other countries for a while, including in Italy for fast testing of air passengers prior to boarding. There must be some data out there now as to their efficacy.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 09, 2020, 08:08:22 PM
They are using the "lateral flow" test, in the Liverpool pilot. This is not an antigen test.

https://www.nsmedicaldevices.com/news/lateral-flow-test-covid-19/ (https://www.nsmedicaldevices.com/news/lateral-flow-test-covid-19/)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 09, 2020, 08:22:38 PM
They are using the "lateral flow" test, in the Liverpool pilot. This is not an antigen test.

https://www.nsmedicaldevices.com/news/lateral-flow-test-covid-19/ (https://www.nsmedicaldevices.com/news/lateral-flow-test-covid-19/)

The lateral flow test is a type of antigen test.

From your link,

Quote
During the test, specimen extracts are applied to the test cartridges, and if there is a Covid-19 antigen in the extract it will bind to the SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody.

I think the Liverpool testing is a mixture of RT-PCR, lateral flow and LAMP testing.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 09, 2020, 10:07:18 PM
First of the new series of 'Hospital' is well worth watching

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000pbh6/hospital-series-6-episode-1

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 09, 2020, 10:17:55 PM
I understand mass testing is to be rolled out in Nottingham and Nottinghamshire next, and that's us. 20,000 quick test kits (10,000 per authority) to be provided up front, followed by enough to test 10% of population per week.

Roll on I say, current covid rate in this area is now 477.6 per 100K of population - highest in Nottinghamshire. The only worrying aspect of all this is the fact that there are so many that will face a financial hit is they have to self isolate - will they even volunteer for a test? I heard a number of individuals ringing in to LBC the other day saying they would not get tested because they would only get SSP.

Personally, I would like some of these tests go to care homes and their visitors first. The higher rate of false positives that these fast tests are prone to certainly won't cause any problems there.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 10, 2020, 04:44:10 AM
I agree.

Mass testing is fine but I feel safer at home, not out standing in line with potential spreaders. Difficult one.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on November 10, 2020, 09:19:24 AM
Light at the end of the tunnel.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/09/covid-19-vaccine-candidate-effective-pfizer-biontech

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/pfizer-covid-vaccine-scientists-react-with-caution-and-questions/ar-BB1aQ41v
Edit added second link

Lets hope so. The newspaper headlines today are all saying 'Back to normal by spring'. I do hope those words become a reality.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 10, 2020, 09:54:07 AM
Light at the end of the tunnel.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/09/covid-19-vaccine-candidate-effective-pfizer-biontech

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/pfizer-covid-vaccine-scientists-react-with-caution-and-questions/ar-BB1aQ41v
Edit added second link

Lets hope so. The newspaper headlines today are all saying 'Back to normal by spring'. I do hope those words become a reality.

I thought Van Tam  was being sensible at Johnson's briefing last night
The train's not in yet. Let's hope everybody doesn't get carried away too early.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-11-09/covid-boris-johnson-holds-press-conference-to-update-on-virus-vaccine-and-mass-testing

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/09/uk-rollout-of-covid-vaccine-could-start-before-christmas

Edit added 2nd link
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 10, 2020, 10:14:01 AM
Saw a TV program about the development of the Pfizer vaccine months ago,  the main problem was ( and still is ) that the RNA has to be stored and transported at the temperature of liquid nitrogen, otherwise it degrades and becomes useless in a few hours at higher temperatures. 
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 10, 2020, 10:30:14 AM
Saw a TV program about the development of the Pfizer vaccine months ago,  the main problem was ( and still is ) that the RNA has to be stored and transported at the temperature of liquid nitrogen, otherwise it degrades and becomes useless in a few hours at higher temperatures.
-80 degrees C
Liquid Nitrogen BP -196degreesC
Dry ice is nice and should suffice.


Edit added last sentence
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 10, 2020, 10:38:14 AM
Light at the end of the tunnel.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/09/covid-19-vaccine-candidate-effective-pfizer-biontech

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/pfizer-covid-vaccine-scientists-react-with-caution-and-questions/ar-BB1aQ41v
Edit added second link

Lets hope so. The newspaper headlines today are all saying 'Back to normal by spring'. I do hope those words become a reality.

It would be nice to think so, but there are some significant hurdles to overcome with this vaccine first - not least the problem that the vaccine it has to be stored at -80°C. Professor Stephen Evans was speaking on Newsnight and had several worries about the trial data that had been released early, against all trial protocols, and there were other concerns raised about supply of the vaccine, and the long term efficacy, which is still unknown.

Still, it has to be a positive sign that this, and maybe other vaccines, may work.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 10, 2020, 10:52:41 AM
Yes. I hope that the media coverage doesn't give everybody false hope and they think it's all over and go wild especially over Christmas.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on November 10, 2020, 12:50:05 PM
Edit
Mind you all the good it did might have been undone when the lockdown was released.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/scenes-mayhem-cardiff-shoppers-pack-19250170

I think that is the biggest issue with Lockdowns. People go mad beforehand as if it was the end of the world, and then go mad with relief afterwards. Case in point after the national lockdown - eat out to help out!

Personally, we have acted with restrain throughout and due to no commute, buying lunches in Leeds and random impulse purchases, I have saved a bloody fortune.

God help the planet next year though when everyone goes back to pre-Covid world and tries to make up for lost time. All the poor struggling travel companies and retailers in general will be coining it in.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 10, 2020, 05:16:34 PM
The numbers follow two to three weeks behind the event so the Welsh lockdown will only start to show results in the next two to three weeks.
We are going into Tier 3 come Friday. Not that it will affect me as the only real change is no sales of alcohol, indoors or out. I haven't been to a pub or restaurant since the start of the pandemic and may never revisit one.
Regards vaccines. The Chinese vaccine, currently on test in Brazil, has been stopped due to adverse reactions among participants.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 10, 2020, 05:26:33 PM
The numbers follow two to three weeks behind the event so the Welsh lockdown will only start to show results in the next two to three weeks.

Absolutely correct. The cases and hospitalisations that occurred during the circuit-breaker were already "baked in", as Mr Van Tam likes to say. There's no way they can tell if it will have been a 'disaster' yet.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 10, 2020, 05:58:09 PM
Jonathan Van Tam always reminds me of Odd Job from Goldfinger
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 10, 2020, 07:38:20 PM
Jonathan Van Tam always reminds me of Odd Job from Goldfinger

He only needs the steel rimmed derby  8)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 10, 2020, 08:01:27 PM
532 deaths recorded (I know it's a Tuesday) and 13,617 in hospital. Not good.

Meanwhile, here in Nottinghamshire... 50% more covid patients in hospitals now than at peak of first wave, BUT survival rate of people admitted to ICU has increased from 72% to 85%. I'm hoping that the increase is due to improved therapies, and not due to patient demographics and the deaths of more vulnerable in the first wave.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 10, 2020, 08:17:31 PM
I'm hoping that the increase is due to improved therapies, and not due to patient demographics and the deaths of more vulnerable in the first wave.
I think there will be a bit of both, but the biggest influence on survival rates is down to the understanding and improvement of treatment and drugs they now use.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 10, 2020, 10:27:23 PM
The anti-vaxxer loons are already out attacking the Pfizer vaccine...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/10/coronavirus-anti-vaxxers-seek-to-discredit-pfizers-vaccine
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 11, 2020, 05:02:14 AM
If the vaccine works then each recipient should be issued with a card that can be worn with a lanyard.

Those who have not got the card are banned from gathering, pubs, events, etc as they are potential spreaders and virus recipients..

This is a serious virus and needs people to have the vaccine, if it works as published, to protect themselves and others. I'll guess these anti-vacc mob are probably social media sheep/lemmings..

Not being serious but it's how I feel about them.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 11, 2020, 07:03:12 AM
I think all this vaccine news is propaganda trying to keep us cheerful on the run up to Christmas. I honestly don't think it will be available this year, here in the UK.
As for starting off vaccinating the over 85's first, it has never been tested on older people. It may not work, or it may have an adverse effect on the older immune system. I can see it being used on young, strong front line workers such as doctors, nurses, and police officers maybe even teachers. But not this year. Perhaps I am pessimistic, but we have been promised so much during the pandemic, with so little being delivered.
I hope I am proved wrong, but I don't think I will be.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 11, 2020, 09:35:38 AM
Well the figures are in ( ONS ), and the Welsh circuit breaker was a disaster,  infection rose 49% during lockdown in Wales ( with testing rate flat ),  In England only 14%.  The reason Starmer liked the sound of a complete shutdown was his bad ears, he thought it was 'a 2 to 3 week sir keir tea break'.....

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/did-wales-s-circuit-breaker-work-

Try clicking on regions of Wales and England on this interactive map.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on November 11, 2020, 09:44:49 AM
I think all this vaccine news is propaganda trying to keep us cheerful on the run up to Christmas. I honestly don't think it will be available this year, here in the UK.

I don't know about "propaganda", as far as I can see HMG is doing it's best to downplay it. It's the media who seem to be pretty irresponsible here, with their breathless reports that it'll be "back to normal by the spring".

Even if the vaccine clears it's final hurdles and gets approved, the logistics are against any early dramatic improvement. The UK has pre-bought (depending on which report you believe) 30m or 40m doses of this particular vaccine, of which "only" 10m are due in the UK by the end of the year. That's 5m people because you need two doses. And to do that you have to fix the logistics problem of transporting and storing it at -80 deg C, not to mention making two bookings each for 5m people and getting them all to turn up. So a large number of people will get it as early as possible but probably not this year, certainly not enough for everyone to breathe a huge sigh of relief and get back to the pub. Everyone else is going to have to await the next vaccine well into next year.

PS Dear Messrs Johnson and  Hancock: can I please have a multi-million £ contract to supply super-cold freezers to the NHS? I have no facilities or experience in this sort of work but that hasn't stopped you before, so how about it?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 11, 2020, 09:50:47 AM
PS Dear Messrs Johnson and  Hancock: can I please have a multi-million £ contract to supply super-cold freezers to the NHS? I have no facilities or experience in this sort of work but that hasn't stopped you before, so how about it?

I've no doubt that some relative of somebody will already be lined up for that, they'll be registering a £100 company at this very moment.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on November 11, 2020, 09:54:46 AM
PS Dear Messrs Johnson and  Hancock: can I please have a multi-million £ contract to supply super-cold freezers to the NHS? I have no facilities or experience in this sort of work but that hasn't stopped you before, so how about it?

I think you'll get the contract with such a comprehensive proposal !  :D
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 11, 2020, 10:54:50 AM
There are still many promising vaccines that are into phase 3 trials, the ones like Pfizer need keeping at about -80C if they are to be viable, the Oxford/ AstraZenica vaccine is nearer to a normal vaccine that can be kept and moved around at much more 'normal' temperatures.  There are risks with introducing RNA into human cells that are by no means fully understood,  there are far less risks with the route Oxford took,  and it has generated large amounts of antibodies in all ages, even over 75's,  unlike some of the others.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/10/pfizer-far-horse-covid-vaccine-race/

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19-cure-doctor-moderna-novavax-oxford-a9523091.html
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 11, 2020, 11:55:22 AM
Given that they both work on the all important S-Protein then the Oxford job could be a good second phase
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 11, 2020, 12:14:13 PM
I think all this vaccine news is propaganda trying to keep us cheerful on the run up to Christmas. I honestly don't think it will be available this year, here in the UK.
As for starting off vaccinating the over 85's first, it has never been tested on older people. It may not work, or it may have an adverse effect on the older immune system. I can see it being used on young, strong front line workers such as doctors, nurses, and police officers maybe even teachers. But not this year. Perhaps I am pessimistic, but we have been promised so much during the pandemic, with so little being delivered.
I hope I am proved wrong, but I don't think I will be.

Got it right in your first sentence.

EVERY Government announcement of good news - or what could be good news- has been a gross exaggeration.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 11, 2020, 03:17:36 PM
I think all this vaccine news is propaganda trying to keep us cheerful on the run up to Christmas. I honestly don't think it will be available this year, here in the UK.

Got it right in your first sentence.

EVERY Government announcement of good news - or what could be good news- has been a gross exaggeration.

It should be good news. We're paying enough for it.
"Over £130m has been spent on communications consultancies since January, Labour has today reported. 23 different communications consultancies have been used by the UK government since the year began.
A majority of this spend is also with a single agency, Manning Gottleib OMD, paid £113,290,408.50 in 2020 alone, as part of a four-year media buying deal with the UK Government for £600 million."
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on November 11, 2020, 05:09:35 PM
I think all this vaccine news is propaganda trying to keep us cheerful on the run up to Christmas. I honestly don't think it will be available this year, here in the UK.
As for starting off vaccinating the over 85's first, it has never been tested on older people. It may not work, or it may have an adverse effect on the older immune system. I can see it being used on young, strong front line workers such as doctors, nurses, and police officers maybe even teachers. But not this year. Perhaps I am pessimistic, but we have been promised so much during the pandemic, with so little being delivered.
I hope I am proved wrong, but I don't think I will be.

Got it right in your first sentence.

EVERY Government announcement of good news - or what could be good news- has been a gross exaggeration.

What government announcement was that? The announcement of the preliminary trial results actually came from Pfizer not any government source, and was reported by the media, eg:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer.html
HMG has actually been downplaying it, eg BoJo’s recent press conference:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54879676

I’m no fan of this government, but in this instance any “propaganda” is not coming from them, it’s the media hyping the announcement and setting unreasonable expectations.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 11, 2020, 08:06:21 PM
I used the word Propaganda, but I was referring to the media hype. I haven't heard Boris' statement. His announcements pertain to England, so I get my updates via Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish DAILY broadcasts.
Propaganda is communication that is used primarily to influence an audience and further an agenda, which may not be objective and may be presenting facts selectively to encourage a particular synthesis. Not necessary from a government.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 11, 2020, 09:01:42 PM
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla sold $5.6m of shares on the day the vaccine news broke. Apparently, the sale of the shares was pre-planned, but the announcement of the results on the same day a coincidence?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/11/pfizer-chief-sold-56m-dollars-of-shares-on-day-covid-vaccine-was-announced
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 11, 2020, 10:06:53 PM
Well if the vaccine doesn't work, he could end up in prison for share fraud.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 12, 2020, 04:54:38 AM
Regardless of any  media hype I believe JVT who seems to be the most trustworthy of the scientific bunch.

I also trust Dr Hillary who tends to appear on ITV early mornings.

They are both quite positive about the Pfizer vaccine test results on 43,000 people.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 12, 2020, 07:08:26 AM
I was watching the spokesperson for the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), on TV last night. She said that approval would not be rushed through under any circumstances and until they have the test and safety results and until they believe it is safe to use, the vaccine will not be licenced for use in the UK.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 12, 2020, 08:27:56 AM
I was watching the spokesperson for the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), on TV last night. She said that approval would not be rushed through under any circumstances and until they have the test and safety results and until they believe it is safe to use, the vaccine will not be licenced for use in the UK.

I used to be engineering site manager for a large pharmacy automated national distribution centre, they were terrified of the MHRA.  when they were coming in it was worse than an OFSTED inspection. For days beforehand people rushing around tidying up and checking batch codes and making sure everything was where it should be and all records were in order - as far as the pharma industry in UK is concerned the MHRA are a couple of places above god....
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 12, 2020, 09:22:54 AM
Interesting news article about an unexpected case identified in NZ, and the results of not doing as they are instructed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/12/new-zealand-investigates-mystery-covid-case-in-auckland
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 12, 2020, 09:33:52 AM
That's how track and trace should be working.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 12, 2020, 09:37:37 AM
In cases like that the manager and the business owner should be jailed or at the very least, the manager should be jailed, and the business closed down for the duration. This is happening in the UK, as well. @rseholes are happy to put peoples lives at risk to bring them in some more money.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 12, 2020, 09:39:32 AM
That's how track and trace should be working.
It should be, but remember, the population of New Zealand is about half that of London.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on November 12, 2020, 09:47:57 AM
Interesting news article about an unexpected case identified in NZ, and the results of not doing as they are instructed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/12/new-zealand-investigates-mystery-covid-case-in-auckland

I love the Swiss Cheese Model. So simple to understand. Scroll down for the animation.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/22-10-2020/siouxsie-wiles-toby-morris-covid-19-and-the-swiss-cheese-system/

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 12, 2020, 10:11:15 AM
Interesting news article about an unexpected case identified in NZ, and the results of not doing as they are instructed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/12/new-zealand-investigates-mystery-covid-case-in-auckland

I love the Swiss Cheese Model. So simple to understand. Scroll down for the animation.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/22-10-2020/siouxsie-wiles-toby-morris-covid-19-and-the-swiss-cheese-system/

Thanks
Interesting article.

I quote from the Swiss Chees article.. "If you want to see failure, look to countries like the US or the UK"

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on November 12, 2020, 11:41:09 AM
I quote from the Swiss Chees article.. "If you want to see failure, look to countries like the US or the UK"

New Zealand, an island with easily controlled borders - ashamed of 25 deaths.

The UK, a group of islands with easily controlled borders - proud of keeping deaths down to 50,000+.

The difference? Look to the Prime Ministers.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 12, 2020, 03:32:19 PM
Well the figures are in ( ONS ), and the Welsh circuit breaker was a disaster,  infection rose 49% during lockdown in Wales ( with testing rate flat ),  In England only 14%.  The reason Starmer liked the sound of a complete shutdown was his bad ears, he thought it was 'a 2 to 3 week sir keir tea break'.....

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/did-wales-s-circuit-breaker-work-
Public Health Wales has recorded 867 more coronavirus cases. This is down from 928 yesterday, 1,272 a week ago today and 1,375 two weeks ago today.
Also see attachment.
Numbers coming down in Northwest, Northeast and Yorkshire, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. All where stricter restrictions applied.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 12, 2020, 04:49:48 PM
That's how track and trace should be working.
It should be, but remember, the population of New Zealand is about half that of London.

And New Zealand a long way from anywhere, and although it looks close to Australia on a map,  it is about 1400 miles away.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 12, 2020, 05:14:38 PM
Oxford vaccine expected to around 7 times cheaper than Pfizer one because it is easier to transport and store...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/cheap-oxford-vaccine-doses-vital-nhszrbntc?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020201112%20%20Charles%20Stanley%20%20JO+CID_fe7625f023f1293fc33b75feebb165fc
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 12, 2020, 06:38:46 PM
And New Zealand a long way from anywhere, and although it looks close to Australia on a map,  it is about 1400 miles away.
New Zealand's imports come in by sea with some specialist items air-freighted into the country. A vast amount of our imports come in by truck, each with a driver (and sometimes a mate). To close our ports to stop people from entering the country would be a logistic nightmare.
We cannot even put a quarantine system in place. In NZ, only NZ residents are allowed in, and they have to book a place in managed isolation. This should be done before they book their flight. Some "returnees" have to pay for their stay in managed isolation.
We tell them to go home and stay home. They can travel by bus or train if they don't have private transport and once they are home, they are unlikely to be checked upon. They may get a phone call or a text on their mobile phone, so that proves nothing.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on November 12, 2020, 07:38:46 PM
About the safest place covid wise in the British Isles, is the Isle Of Man. They have restrictions in place, are enforcing them and the population are complying.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 12, 2020, 10:14:30 PM
Currently in France, 40% of the people admitted to ICU are aged under 65.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 13, 2020, 09:27:15 AM
Currently in France, 40% of the people admitted to ICU are aged under 65.

It may be that virus is mutating ( coronavirus that causes common cold and influenza mutate rapidly ).
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 13, 2020, 09:39:48 AM
We know it is mutating as the Spanish Mutation is now on the go and the Danish version, caught from mink is another mutation.
Came across this brilliant article.

Covid: Why is coronavirus such a threat?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54648684 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54648684)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 13, 2020, 09:52:11 AM
Covid: Why is coronavirus such a threat?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54648684 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54648684)

Feels a bit like a story squashed down into bullet points, but very interesting indeed. A lot of information there that's worth further reading.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 13, 2020, 11:36:18 AM
We know it is mutating as the Spanish Mutation is now on the go and the Danish version, caught from mink is another mutation.
Came across this brilliant article.

Covid: Why is coronavirus such a threat?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54648684 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54648684)

This is beginning to look more like a lab produced virus,  a dangerous experiment that escaped from a lab because of shoddy bio-security ( lab workers selling experimental animals in local wet market to make extra money ),  now let me see there is a huge bio lab in Wuhan, now remind me again where this whole thing started.... :o
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 13, 2020, 11:58:05 AM
Nah

https://www.newscientist.com/term/coronavirus-come-lab/

There are much more detailed analysis out there from respectable scientific sources.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 13, 2020, 01:47:50 PM
We know it is mutating as the Spanish Mutation is now on the go and the Danish version, caught from mink is another mutation.
Came across this brilliant article.

Covid: Why is coronavirus such a threat?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54648684 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54648684)

This is beginning to look more like a lab produced virus,  a dangerous experiment that escaped from a lab because of shoddy bio-security ( lab workers selling experimental animals in local wet market to make extra money ),  now let me see there is a huge bio lab in Wuhan, now remind me again where this whole thing started.... :o
Oh dear
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 13, 2020, 01:50:55 PM
Did you see that the Yorkshire Ripper has died after contracting Covid and refusing hospital treatment?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 13, 2020, 01:55:26 PM
It looks like a large portion of Scotland will be going into Tier 4 next week. And from what the Interim Deputy Chief Medical Officer for Scotland was saying at today's update it won't just be for a few weeks.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 13, 2020, 03:05:59 PM
Well the figures are in ( ONS ), and the Welsh circuit breaker was a disaster,  infection rose 49% during lockdown in Wales ( with testing rate flat ),  In England only 14%.  The reason Starmer liked the sound of a complete shutdown was his bad ears, he thought it was 'a 2 to 3 week sir keir tea break'.....

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/did-wales-s-circuit-breaker-work-
Public Health Wales has recorded 867 more coronavirus cases. This is down from 928 yesterday, 1,272 a week ago today and 1,375 two weeks ago today.
Also see attachment.
Numbers coming down in Northwest, Northeast and Yorkshire, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. All where stricter restrictions applied.

And for Wales only.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 13, 2020, 03:14:31 PM
I heard on the press that the sudden jump in cases yesterday could be due to everybody going berserk before the lockdown, but I don't buy it. I reckon that this, and the general slowing down in hospitalisations we are seeing now is the half term effect. Too early to be as a result of the England lockdown.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 13, 2020, 03:16:51 PM
Did you see that the Yorkshire Ripper has died after contracting Covid and refusing hospital treatment?

Every cloud, and all that.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 13, 2020, 03:22:50 PM
It looks like a large portion of Scotland will be going into Tier 4 next week. And from what the Interim Deputy Chief Medical Officer for Scotland was saying at today's update it won't just be for a few weeks.

Yes. I think Glasgow and surroundings should have had more restrictions earlier.

The Stirling (where I am) rise has been narrowed down to the Eastern villages (Bannockburn, Plean, Cowie and Fallin)
and a care home in Bannockburn.
A student has also tested positive at Stirling University.
https://nhsforthvalley.com/covid-19-mobile-testing-centre-to-visit-bannockburn-plean-cowie/
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/residents-die-covid-hit-bannockburn-22992869
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 13, 2020, 05:33:07 PM
Just received another notification from school, two more confirmed cases today. Getting these on a pretty regular basis now.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 13, 2020, 08:46:23 PM
Quote
The number of school-age children with coronavirus has risen "significantly" in the second wave compared with the first, according to the government's scientific advisers.

Children are now more likely than adults to be the person bringing a Covid infection into a household.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54937486
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 13, 2020, 10:10:33 PM
Thought for today...

The UK has recorded about the same number of covid-19 deaths since Monday this week as Japan has suffered during the entire course of the pandemic.

Japan has almost twice the population of the UK.
26% of Japan's population are over 65, against the UK's 18%.
Average population density and capital population density both higher in Japan.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 13, 2020, 11:36:07 PM
Thought for today...

The UK has recorded about the same number of covid-19 deaths since Monday this week as Japan has suffered during the entire course of the pandemic.

Japan has almost twice the population of the UK.
26% of Japan's population are over 65, against the UK's 18%.
Average population density and capital population density both higher in Japan.
Some points from BBC article
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53188847

Masks .
"Japanese people began wearing face masks more than 100 years ago during the 1919 flu pandemic and they've never really stopped. If you get a cough or a cold here it is expected that you will don a mask to protect those around you."

Track and trace.
"Japan's track and trace system also goes back to the 1950s when it battled a wave of tuberculosis. The government set up a nationwide network of public health centres to identify new infections and report them to the health ministry.
If community transmission is suspected, a specialist team is dispatched to track the infections, relying on meticulous human contact tracing and isolation."

"Three Cs" campaign
    Enclosed spaces with poor ventilation (I take it that one doesn't translate too well)
    Crowded places with many people
    Close contact settings such as face-to-face conversations.
"I think that probably worked better than just telling people to stay at home," "

Early intervention
"Timing timing timing"


Trust and Compliance
"The government asked, people listened."

Edit Added Compliance
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 14, 2020, 03:09:21 AM
They probably don't have the UK mentality of organising and attending mass Covid spreading parties.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 14, 2020, 10:02:55 AM
Thought for today...

The UK has recorded about the same number of covid-19 deaths since Monday this week as Japan has suffered during the entire course of the pandemic.

Japan has almost twice the population of the UK.
26% of Japan's population are over 65, against the UK's 18%.
Average population density and capital population density both higher in Japan.

There are many reasons for this, main one probably due to their much better overall health due to diet and exercise - and their medical system concentrates on prevention rather than cure.  Brits are pretty unhealthy and as a rule have chronic underlying conditions caused by bad diet and bad lifestyle choices,  the NHS is great but it does result in many people eating junk food, taking little or no exercise and then rocking up at GP or hospital and saying 'cure me'... so main burden on NHS is people basically abusing their bodies and relying on free healthcare to keep them going,  and SARS-Cov-2 virus loves nothing better than obese people with many underlying health conditions..

https://www.indiatimes.com/health/healthyliving/why-the-japanese-are-healthier-fitter-and-live-longer-than-the-rest-of-us-328024.html

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 14, 2020, 11:20:29 AM
There are many reasons for this, main one probably due to their much better overall health due to diet and exercise

Ignoring the deaths for a moment, do you believe that their overall health has more of a bearing on the number of recorded cases than the public health measures taken to combat the virus?

Japan - 897 cases per 1 million population, so far.
UK - 19,370 per 1 million.

To die of it, you have to catch it first.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 14, 2020, 11:36:05 AM
Well the figures are in ( ONS ), and the Welsh circuit breaker was a disaster,  infection rose 49% during lockdown in Wales ( with testing rate flat ),  In England only 14%.  The reason Starmer liked the sound of a complete shutdown was his bad ears, he thought it was 'a 2 to 3 week sir keir tea break'.....

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/did-wales-s-circuit-breaker-work-
Public Health Wales has recorded 867 more coronavirus cases. This is down from 928 yesterday, 1,272 a week ago today and 1,375 two weeks ago today.
Also see attachment.
Numbers coming down in Northwest, Northeast and Yorkshire, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. All where stricter restrictions applied.

And for Wales only.
Why England needs a second lockdown (and not just for Christmas)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/second-lockdown-coronavirus-covid-england-rules-cases-latest-b1483038.html

Edit Added Link

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 14, 2020, 12:04:30 PM
Comparing death rates between countries with vastly different genetic makeup in different parts of the world is always going to be full of pitfalls,  Japan has also been criticised for their very low rate of testing.  There are also different mutations of the virus circulating around the world.  People is Asia also have much more exposure to coronavirus variants in general and are thought to have a much higher natural immunity.  Japan did not have lockdowns either,  they are more sensible than our panic stricken 'rabbit in the headlights' politicians - who believe anything the Imperial college tame experts tell them - even when the figures are obviously taking the worst of the worst of the worst scenarios and then multiplying result by the kind of safety factor that bridge designers use.....

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/06/12/commentary/japan-commentary/japans-low-covid-19-death-rate-due-higher-cultural-level/
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 14, 2020, 12:15:11 PM
I thought it was due to diet and exercise?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 14, 2020, 12:40:18 PM

Japan - 897 cases per 1 million population, so far.
UK - 19,370 per 1 million.

To die of it, you have to catch it first.

How very true, I'll bet the Japanese don't go partying into all hours thinking they are immune.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 14, 2020, 12:44:26 PM
Comparing death rates between countries with vastly different genetic makeup in different parts of the world is always going to be full of pitfalls,

Same with these Celts, Picts and Gaels ?  ::)

Edit added emoticon
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 14, 2020, 04:47:48 PM
Well the Japanese prepared after SARS and MERS outbreaks in the 2000s 
The UK (PHE) prepared for a flue epidemic and the then Chief Medical officer has admitted they did not even bother to follow their own advice.(Yes . really)

I could go on.

I suspect there is a case for jailing a few officials "pour encourager les autres " as Voltaire wrote after Admiral Byng was hung .
https://www.historytoday.com/archive/months-past/execution-admiral-byng
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 14, 2020, 04:48:51 PM
They are talking about how the young folk are suspect of the vaccine. Some are scared by fake news, but many others feel it is being rushed out without sufficient testing.
My wife is also in that category. She is unsure whether to take the vaccine if offered, and I feel there are many intelligent adults of a similar mind.
WHO says that if there is a poor take up of the vaccine, then the pandemic will continue. The Scottish Government say they will not make it compulsory. Still, I can see some form of compulsion may be necessary, like having overseas visitors and returning passengers having to quarantine unless they have a certificate of current vaccination.
As a merchant navy officer, back in the '60s, I had to have current vaccination certificate for a variety of diseases (Yellow Fever, Cholera and Smallpox) which were carried in the rear of my passport. I couldn't join a ship without them as they were required for all crews visiting certain countries.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 14, 2020, 05:25:25 PM
I hope they devise a similar system here.

No Covid jab no access to anywhere of risk.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on November 14, 2020, 07:14:02 PM
But the Pfizer vaccine is like no other. It has been rushed through, which is understandable, but it is an entirely new method for delivering immunity, messing with your DNA at the fundamental level. Being asthmatic, old, male and overweight I will be relatively high up the priority list. But I think I would prefer to wait for the Oxford vaccine myself.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: zzaj on November 14, 2020, 07:28:29 PM
But the Pfizer vaccine is like no other. It has been rushed through, which is understandable, but it is an entirely new method for delivering immunity, messing with your DNA at the fundamental level. Being asthmatic, old, male and overweight I will be relatively high up the priority list. But I think I would prefer to wait for the Oxford vaccine myself.

+1 (apart from the asthmatic, old, and overweight, of course  ;) )
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 14, 2020, 11:24:27 PM
Just to add to the bit of a straw poll, I spoke to my mum earlier today - they're both in their 80s and are both eager for a vaccine as soon as possible.

In the last few days, a NHS mobile testing operation has been set up just round the corner from their house, outside the OAP community centre and bang in the middle of a residential housing estate. I think it's been a bit of a shock to the locals to see all the equipment - lorries, barriers, generator, lighting, etc. - descend on the place.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 15, 2020, 06:44:37 AM
But the Pfizer vaccine is like no other. It has been rushed through, which is understandable, but it is an entirely new method for delivering immunity, messing with your DNA at the fundamental level. Being asthmatic, old, male and overweight I will be relatively high up the priority list. But I think I would prefer to wait for the Oxford vaccine myself.
+1

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on November 15, 2020, 07:55:44 AM
But the Pfizer vaccine is like no other. It has been rushed through, which is understandable, but it is an entirely new method for delivering immunity, messing with your DNA at the fundamental level. Being asthmatic, old, male and overweight I will be relatively high up the priority list. But I think I would prefer to wait for the Oxford vaccine myself.

Having read the BBC fact checking page today on the Pfizer vaccine I am now somewhat relieved but also a bit confused still. Apparently it does not affect your DNA but it teaches your immune system. I think I need a more technical appraisal.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on November 15, 2020, 08:08:12 AM
But the Pfizer vaccine is like no other. It has been rushed through, which is understandable, but it is an entirely new method for delivering immunity, messing with your DNA at the fundamental level. Being asthmatic, old, male and overweight I will be relatively high up the priority list. But I think I would prefer to wait for the Oxford vaccine myself.

Having read the BBC fact checking page today on the Pfizer vaccine I am now somewhat relieved but also a bit confused still. Apparently it does not affect your DNA but it teaches your immune system. I think I need a more technical appraisal.

I was just about to post a link to that page, you beat me to it! Here it is anyway, it’s worth a read:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/54893437

The suggestion that an RNA-based vaccine would alter DNA needs to be firmly squashed, that just fuels the anti-vac nonsense.
Excerpt:
The fear that a vaccine will somehow change your DNA is another one we've seen aired regularly on Facebook posts.
It appears the people spreading such claims have a fundamental misunderstanding of genetics.
The vaccine contains a fragment of the virus's genetic material - or RNA.
"Injecting RNA into a person doesn't do anything to the DNA of a human cell," said Prof Jeffrey Almond of Oxford University.
Pfizer spokesperson Andrew Widger said the company's vaccine "does not alter the DNA sequence of a human body. It only presents the body with the instructions to build immunity".

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 15, 2020, 09:39:55 AM


Having read the BBC fact checking page today on the Pfizer vaccine I am now somewhat relieved but also a bit confused still. Apparently it does not affect your DNA but it teaches your immune system. I think I need a more technical appraisal.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 15, 2020, 11:46:41 AM
There was a news item on earlier and they were saying that some anti-vac brigade reckon Covid is engineered to scare everyone into getting vaccinated and that vaccination is a microchip to keep track of us all !!!!!

They live amongst us.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on November 15, 2020, 01:12:50 PM
There was a news item on earlier and they were saying that some anti-vac brigade reckon Covid is engineered to scare everyone into getting vaccinated and that vaccination is a microchip to keep track of us all !!!!!

They live amongst us.

Yes, and the earth is flat etc   :D
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 15, 2020, 02:00:38 PM
There was a news item on earlier and they were saying that some anti-vac brigade reckon Covid is engineered to scare everyone into getting vaccinated and that vaccination is a microchip to keep track of us all !!!!!

They live amongst us.
Is it any wonder Trump has so many supporters.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: VicW on November 15, 2020, 02:17:24 PM
The Labour opposition in Parliament want Johnson to legally prevent social media suppliers from publishing anti-vac statements. I can easily believe that whatever these statements say social media users will believe them such as the injected micro chip one. People of all ages download every app available to them and the walk along the street browsing every one in case they miss some rubbish published therein. I would imagine their belief is that it is on their phone so it must be true. The average mobile phone user these days has got so many icons for apps on their phone that they do not know what some of them are for.
I do not believe that a safe vaccine will be available in the time scale being promoted, do you remember Thalidomide?
Will I have a jab if one becomes available, yes almost certainly, I am 83 so would, apparently, be at the higher end of priority.

Vic.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 15, 2020, 02:25:33 PM
Quote
Young and previously healthy people with ongoing symptoms of Covid-19 are showing signs of damage to multiple organs four months after the initial infection, a study suggests.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/15/damage-to-multiple-organs-recorded-in-long-covid-cases
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 15, 2020, 02:52:44 PM
Quite a few of these that have attended mass gatherings and not realised they've had it may be in for a shock.

Look how long it took for asbestosis to raise it's head.  Long after some had retired from the industry.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 15, 2020, 02:58:30 PM
Quite a few of these that have attended mass gatherings and not realised they've had it may be in for a shock.

Look how long it took for asbestosis to raise it's head.  Long after some had retired from the industry.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2250375-finding-coronavirus-superspreaders-may-be-key-to-halting-a-second-wave/
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 15, 2020, 03:17:42 PM
I was wondering about this.
Several other vaccine programmes are working along the same lines as the Pfizer approach and have not needed such low temperatures.
Unfortunately I have used up my free articles and cannot access the full article.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2259821-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-may-not-need-to-be-kept-at-70c-after-all/
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 15, 2020, 03:35:57 PM
There was a news item on earlier and they were saying that some anti-vac brigade reckon Covid is engineered to scare everyone into getting vaccinated and that vaccination is a microchip to keep track of us all !!!!!

They live amongst us.

Darwinism in action.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on November 15, 2020, 04:38:13 PM
There was a news item on earlier and they were saying that some anti-vac brigade reckon Covid is engineered to scare everyone into getting vaccinated and that vaccination is a microchip to keep track of us all !!!!!

They live amongst us.
Is it any wonder Trump has so many supporters.

An awful lot of black Hispanic, Muslims and women voted for Trump, not bad for a guy labelled as a racist and misogynist  by democrats. They voted for him because their lives improved in last 4 years - including the biggest rise in income for most people for a long time.. their wages hardly improved under two term Obama.  Less than 5 million votes in it, the democrats now the party of privileged whites :o
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 15, 2020, 05:22:16 PM

An awful lot of black Hispanic, Muslims and women voted for Trump, not bad for a guy labelled as a racist and misogynist  by democrats.
Fortunately an awful lot more people voted for Biden rather than Trump .
  Less than 5 million votes in it, the democrats now the party of privileged whites :o
Like Obama and Harris ?

Anyway this topic is supposed to be about Covid and Trump is making a right cockup of that.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 15, 2020, 07:38:40 PM
US Covid deaths exceed 250,000. 328.2M population 0.76%
UK Covid deaths exceed   51,500.   66.7M population 0.78%

Boris is performing worse than Trump.



Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 15, 2020, 07:48:02 PM
US Covid deaths exceed 250,000. 328.2M population 0.76%
UK Covid deaths exceed   51,500.   66.7M population 0.78%

Boris is performing worse than Trump.
Yep. Him too.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 15, 2020, 07:59:20 PM
As of the 13th of November, we were the 9th worst country in deaths per capita with the US 12th.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 16, 2020, 03:47:01 AM
Too slow to act
Too lenient with rule breakers
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 16, 2020, 07:05:11 AM
Some interesting stuff on the early morning World News. 20% of people who lose their sense of smell do not get it back. Perhaps the younger set should think about that the next time they fancy rule-breaking. No sense of smell means food is virtually tasteless. Imagine going through the rest of your life like that.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 16, 2020, 07:57:12 AM
Some interesting stuff on the early morning World News. 20% of people who lose their sense of smell do not get it back. Perhaps the younger set should think about that the next time they fancy rule-breaking. No sense of smell means food is virtually tasteless. Imagine going through the rest of your life like that.
Could be worse:-
"Preliminary data from a separate study of 58 patients who were hospitalised with Covid-19 similarly found abnormalities in the lungs of 60%; in the kidneys of 29%; in the hearts of 26%; and in the livers of 10% of patients, two to three months after the initial infection, as well as tissue changes in parts of the brain."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/15/damage-to-multiple-organs-recorded-in-long-covid-cases
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 16, 2020, 08:59:15 AM
Irrespective of your age, it is better if you can avoid catching it. It just takes careful steps to avoid contact with "outsiders".
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 16, 2020, 11:30:26 AM
"Bursting with antibodies"  ----eh??

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/boris-johnson-bursting-with-antibodies-after-being-forced-to-self-isolate/ar-BB1b2V4n?ocid=msedgntp
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 16, 2020, 11:43:05 AM
"Bursting with antibodies"  ----eh??

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/boris-johnson-bursting-with-antibodies-after-being-forced-to-self-isolate/ar-BB1b2V4n?ocid=msedgntp

No masks worn at meetings.

Remind me how Boris caught Covid? Was he wearing a mask? No.

I learn from my mistakes.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 16, 2020, 11:47:59 AM
I'm suspicious that Boz has engineered this story to keep him away from the press as they will be demanding answers re Cummings and Caine.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 16, 2020, 12:30:25 PM
More good news

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/what-does-moderna-vaccine-mean-fight-covid

Quote
So far, the UK does not stand to benefit from the vaccine. Moderna has agreed to provide the US with 100m doses, with an option to buy 400m more. Japan, Canada, Switzerland, Qatar and Israel have also signed agreements, and the European commission has a “potential purchase agreement” for 80m-160m doses. The UK chose not to participate in the EU vaccine purchase scheme, with the health secretary, Matt Hancock, arguing in July that the government could source vaccine faster on its own.

Hmmm...
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 16, 2020, 01:20:27 PM
More good news

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/what-does-moderna-vaccine-mean-fight-covid

Quote
So far, the UK does not stand to benefit from the vaccine. Moderna has agreed to provide the US with 100m doses, with an option to buy 400m more. Japan, Canada, Switzerland, Qatar and Israel have also signed agreements, and the European commission has a “potential purchase agreement” for 80m-160m doses. The UK chose not to participate in the EU vaccine purchase scheme, with the health secretary, Matt Hancock, arguing in July that the government could source vaccine faster on its own.

Hmmm...

The Moderna vaccine has not yet been tested.
That will take 6-9 months.

The Government appear to have backed winners as it supported Pfizer and the Oxford one - both finished/nearly finished trials.
The Russian vaccine was announced months ago - but they do not appear to have proper tests and cannot produce in volume I believe
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on November 16, 2020, 01:23:02 PM
There was a news item on earlier and they were saying that some anti-vac brigade reckon Covid is engineered to scare everyone into getting vaccinated and that vaccination is a microchip to keep track of us all !!!!!

They live amongst us.
Is it any wonder Trump has so many supporters.

An awful lot of black Hispanic, Muslims and women voted for Trump, not bad for a guy labelled as a racist and misogynist  by democrats. They voted for him because their lives improved in last 4 years - including the biggest rise in income for most people for a long time.. their wages hardly improved under two term Obama.  Less than 5 million votes in it, the democrats now the party of privileged whites :o

A few more blacks voted for Trump admittedly but, overwhelmingly, blacks vote Democrat. He did well amongst Latino voters in Florida many of whom are Cuban exiles and distrust anything that can be labelled socialist - the Democrats incidentally are not, and never have been a socialist party.

Further examination of the voter breakdown shows wealthy white Americans leaned to the Republicans but Biden's winning margin in terms of the popular vote is just over 5 million. Trump has lost the popular vote in 2 successive elections by 2.87 million to Clinton and now a much bigger margin to Biden.

More generally, the Republicans have lost the popular vote in the following years - 1992, 1996, 2000, 2008, 2012, 2016 and now 2020. Far from being a party for privileged whites, the demographic changes have benefitted the Democrats as more Hispanics and other ethnic minorities take up a larger percentage of the electorate.

That said the Electoral College does not reflect the population levels in each state - they haven't been changed for years so sparsely populated rural areas have more electoral college votes than their population levels justify - it's why only the Republicans have won elections from a deficit in the popular vote. Another anomaly is population levels vis a vis Senate seats where California gets the same number of Senators as Wyoming.

The American system is skewed heavily in favour of the Republicans. This needs correcting. In this way they would have to widen their appeal across the board rather than pandering to the hard right.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 16, 2020, 01:56:49 PM
I do not think it behoves us  British to criticise the US voting systems.

Americans get to vote for members of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Oh and for the President.

We get no vote on who is PM, the House of Lords is unelected (and unelectable) and the PM is appointed by around half the elected MPs. And constituency boundaries are hopelessly out of date .

Compared to the US system with all its faults, the UK system is undemocratic and archaic.

Oh and in the US system, an elected politician is chosen by local voters and answerable to them first and foremost. UK political parties control who is selected as candidate and he/she is answerable to the Party first and foremost. The voters don't count (save at elections)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 16, 2020, 02:27:33 PM

More good news

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/what-does-moderna-vaccine-mean-fight-covid

Quote
So far, the UK does not stand to benefit from the vaccine. Moderna has agreed to provide the US with 100m doses, with an option to buy 400m more. Japan, Canada, Switzerland, Qatar and Israel have also signed agreements, and the European commission has a “potential purchase agreement” for 80m-160m doses. The UK chose not to participate in the EU vaccine purchase scheme, with the health secretary, Matt Hancock, arguing in July that the government could source vaccine faster on its own.

Hmmm...



I would have faith in the vaccines but I have my doubts over the procurement and distribution.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/11/well-need-more-than-one-vaccine-to-beat-the-pandemic/

Edit added attachment
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 16, 2020, 03:25:57 PM
"Bursting with antibodies"  ----eh??

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/boris-johnson-bursting-with-antibodies-after-being-forced-to-self-isolate/ar-BB1b2V4n?ocid=msedgntp

No masks worn at meetings.

Remind me how Boris caught Covid? Was he wearing a mask? No.

I learn from my mistakes.

I think it's his new PR team who are being paid millions to promote a rebranded optimistic Jonson who will lead by example.

"We have a brilliant track and trace team who have managed to trace me and my colleagues"  (he is the prime minister)
"Despite feeling as fit as a butcher's dog I will self isolate"     (on full salary)
"I'm bursting with antibodies and we'll pummel this virus into submission"  (I know as little about this virus as the general public)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on November 16, 2020, 03:29:01 PM
I do not think it behoves us  British to criticise the US voting systems.

Americans get to vote for members of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Oh and for the President.

We get no vote on who is PM, the House of Lords is unelected (and unelectable) and the PM is appointed by around half the elected MPs. And constituency boundaries are hopelessly out of date .

Compared to the US system with all its faults, the UK system is undemocratic and archaic.

Oh and in the US system, an elected politician is chosen by local voters and answerable to them first and foremost. UK political parties control who is selected as candidate and he/she is answerable to the Party first and foremost. The voters don't count (save at elections)

There's a lot wrong with our system I agree.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 16, 2020, 03:51:53 PM
Just getting back to our own experiences of this debacle, just for the moment, I've just had yet another notification from school - two more confirmed cases.

That's 5 more confirmed cases since Friday, it's really getting hold of the school now. Half my son's tutor group have been sent home just after lunch time today to self isolate, and about half the sixth form in total are now off - both of ours are sixth form.

It feels like we're sitting on a ticking bomb, waiting for the inevitable.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on November 16, 2020, 03:59:02 PM
Just getting back to the our own experiences of this debacle, just for the moment, I've just had yet another notification from school - two more confirmed cases.

That's 5 more confirmed cases since Friday, it's really getting hold of the school now. Half my son's tutor group have been sent home just after lunch time today to self isolate, and about half the sixth form in total are now off - both of ours are sixth form.

It feels like we're sitting on a ticking bomb, waiting for the inevitable.

Feel for you Paul and I hope it all goes ok. We're not quite in the same situation......yet. My lad is in sixth form, and there have been four cases in lower years. Like you say, time bomb.  :(
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 16, 2020, 04:05:49 PM
Feel for you Paul and I hope it all goes ok. We're not quite in the same situation......yet. My lad is in sixth form, and there have been four cases in lower years. Like you say, time bomb.  :(

Funnily enough, that's how it started here. A few cases in Y11 & 12, and it seems to have worked it's way up.

Hard to see how much longer they can continue if they end up with half the kids and some of the teachers off. It must be getting difficult having to teach half the kids at home and half in class, in some years.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 16, 2020, 04:06:23 PM
Rumours in press that Stirling is to be put in tier 4 along with most other central belt authorities.
No mention of Stirling at lunchtime briefing but decisions on re-allocation of tiers to be announced tomorrow (Tuesday) as planned.
At least in Scotland things seem pre planned and plans adhered to.
Re schools.It emerged from questions that Teachers' Unions are calling for move to online teaching and even threatening industrial action. Scottish Government still intent on keeping schools open.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 16, 2020, 04:13:21 PM
Re schools.It emerged from questions that Teachers' Unions are calling for move to online teaching and even threatening industrial action.

I'm not surprised, and I'm sure the likes of Julia Hartley-Brewer will be out there soon calling all the teachers bone idle again, someone who is paid handsomely to sit on her duff yapping.

Every school has a unique set of problems, ours was over-subscribed before all this, and changeovers within the school were already very congested. The distancing measures and changeover staggering that they have imposed are very limited indeed.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 16, 2020, 06:47:43 PM
Today my wife and I visited her mother in the care home where she is temporarily residing. It is her 96th birthday today. We were able to visit her in a tent in the garden. It was blowing a gale and freezing cold. After 10 minutes, the poor woman was chittering with the cold, and we had to call the staff to take her back in. At this rate, she will survive the coronavirus and die of hyperthermia or pneumonia. Either that or we will.
The good news is she will be getting home once they put a care package in place, however one old gentleman just got home after waiting a year.
The duty manager was telling us that their test results come back within 24 hours, now that the NHS do the lab work as against 3 or 4 days when the UK government laboratories were doing it.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 16, 2020, 08:11:03 PM
The good news is she will be getting home once they put a care package in place, however one old gentleman just got home after waiting a year.

Finger crossed, I'm guessing that will make everyone happier all round.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 16, 2020, 08:35:40 PM
Sweden has reduced its limit on public gatherings from 300 to 8, due to a significant increase in cases.

Other news, UK has secured 5 million doses of the Moderna vaccine, with delivery commencing spring 2021. They are throwing a lot of money at this - they have now committed to a total of 355 million doses from the various vaccine projects.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 16, 2020, 09:03:17 PM
Test and Trace Chaos on Ch 4 now. Dispatches Lockdown Chaos
Well worth a watch.
Horrendous.
Undercover reporter in testing centre expected to learn on the job under time pressure.
Leaking samples . Unsafe practices. Danger of cross contamination. Delayed testing.
https://www.channel4.com/programmes/lockdown-chaos

Background to untendered allocation of contracts and dubious sub contracts as in this article.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/15/chumocracy-covid-revealed-shape-tory-establishment

Edit Added summary and links
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 16, 2020, 10:53:59 PM
On TV this evening. North Dakota hospitals are so overwhelmed with Covid cases that doctors and nurses who test positive but are asymptomatic, are continuing to work to staff the wards and ICUs.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 16, 2020, 11:59:18 PM
I sure I read that they have been investigating that possibility here, allowing covid positive doctors and nurses to staff covid wards.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on November 17, 2020, 10:56:23 AM
Anecdotally I know of, personally far more cases in this recent spike than in the first one. Indeed both sets of neighbours have had Covid (they are still working so more exposed to infection). One of our neighbours has lupus and was on the initial shielding group during the first lockdown - she is also 64. She was off work for ages whilst shielding and beyond. Anyway she caught it and told us that she was pretty certain she'd die if she got it. In the event she had a bit of a cough and felt desperately tired. Took a test and it was positive. As she came out of the illness she lost her sense of taste and smell.

A former colleague of mine got Covid and it killed him. He was in his early sixties but was super fit.

It's almost impossible to  predict how any given individual will react even allowing for the obvious risk factors.

Needless to say we are playing safe!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 17, 2020, 08:11:05 PM
So that is 11 areas in Scotland going into Level 4, which is basically a full lockdown and travel restriction will become law at the same time. It will be illegal to travel from one council area to another if you live in a Tier 3 or 4 area exception in specified reasons.
England is talking about strengthening their Tier levels, and IMHO, they should adopt the same levels as Scotland.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 17, 2020, 09:06:54 PM
So that is 11 areas in Scotland going into Level 4, which is basically a full lockdown and travel restriction will become law at the same time. It will be illegal to travel from one council area to another if you live in a Tier 3 or 4 area exception in specified reasons.
England is talking about strengthening their Tier levels, and IMHO, they should adopt the same levels as Scotland.
And 2 areas will move from tier 3 to tier 2
That's Stirling now in tier 4 not that it's going to make much difference to me.
I think the Scottish 5 tier system was designed to broadly align with the English 3 tier system but the Scottish government had the foresight to make it extendable both ways - a carrot as well as a stick.
If the English lockdown does not prove effective enough they will have to introduce a higher level although whether they will call it tier 4 remains to be seen.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/17/prepare-for-a-low-key-christmas-england-covid-experts-warn
Edit Added link
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 17, 2020, 09:28:26 PM
they will have to introduce a higher level although whether they will call it tier 4 remains to be seen.
Probably not. That would be following Nicola AGAIN.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 18, 2020, 03:16:41 PM
My step-daughter has a new man in her life, and she would like us to meet him before Christmas. Unfortunately, we live in a different council area. We are in Tier 3 (probably going to 4 next week) and her area is going down to Tier 2 on Friday so unless there is a turn around before Christmas it looks like we will have to wait until the big day, assuming the restrictions are lifted in some way. As of Friday, I risk a £60 fine if we go over to her house.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 18, 2020, 03:44:21 PM
Zoom or a WhatsApp video call then ?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 18, 2020, 04:24:00 PM
Zoom or a WhatsApp video call then ?
Not a great way for my wife to meet her prospective future son-in-law. Better to wait for a face-to-face meeting at Christmas.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 18, 2020, 08:26:31 PM
Zoom or a WhatsApp video call then ?
Not a great way for my wife to meet her prospective future son-in-law. Better to wait for a face-to-face meeting at Christmas.

Hope she doesn't take the vetting too far  ;D
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 18, 2020, 08:43:56 PM
The ex-husband was an @r$ehole, so perhaps vetting is necessary. He is up in court next year for mental abuse of his youngest.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 18, 2020, 09:26:02 PM
The ex-husband was an @r$ehole, so perhaps vetting is necessary. He is up in court next year for mental abuse of his youngest.

It's sad that these experiences cast such long shadows. You can't stop it tainting other relationships, it's just human nature.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 24, 2020, 07:12:22 AM
I am apprehensive about this Christmas relaxation that is about to be announced. I could see half the old folk who go to family Christmas parties being dead by the end of January. I don't want to go out for Christmas dinner, but my wife insists so I may be one of them.

Scotland celebrates New Year, with first footing and people going from house to house with large quantities of drink consumed. Unless Nicola puts quantities of police on the streets, she will not stop that happening. Not after saying it is okay for Christmas. This will be the final cull before the vaccine starts to take effect.

As for the vaccine, even if it causes you to grow an extra set of ears, it will get a safety certificate. The hype has seen to that.

Once the vaccine is readily available Qantas says that it will not carry passengers who do not have a valid, current vaccination certificate and other carriers around the world have told Qantas, they will operate the same rules.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 24, 2020, 08:22:36 AM
I agree with you.

I would want to know who will be attending and what is their recent mixing history.

Not long to wait till spring and shortly after the risks should be reducing. With the current daily infection rate it's just not sensible to mix.

Give this Xmas a miss and catch up next year ........ hopefully
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on November 24, 2020, 11:03:29 AM
Totally agree Kremmen. There is widespread flouting of the household mixing rules already in our street. A green light for Christmas would be super spreading on steroids.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 24, 2020, 12:03:46 PM
No mixing for us either.
The mothers collecting children from school 100 meters away don't wear masks and stand talking for minutes before school. The kids mix with other mothers .And they wonder why our local rates are worsening!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 24, 2020, 12:46:25 PM
I agree. The only way you could make it safe to visit over Christmas would be if everyone concerned agreed to self isolate for 14 days prior. Far from ideal, but it's an option, given that no action will be taken against those mixing... so many will ignore the rules anyway.

I don't understand why they can't shut schools, colleges and universities two weeks early - I'm sure that would be a big help too.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 24, 2020, 04:21:34 PM

I don't understand why they can't shut schools, colleges and universities two weeks early - I'm sure that would be a big help too.

I thought Universties were due to close early. I still think opening them was a big mistake. Bringing in young, seemingly-healthy people who may be unwitting, asymptomatic carriers, incubating them together for a couple of months and then  sending them back home again for Christmas seems like a recipe for disaster.
In Scotland  it's being reccommended that students take two tests several days apart before travelling but I would imagine some won't bother.
 Meanwhile Johnson skips the Cobra meeting to discuss a joint, four-nations approach to easing the Covid restrictions at Christmas at which I'm pretty sure the more cautious devolved nations will be encouraged to follow the more relaxed UK Govt. policy and be expected to take the blame for being awkward.
I can't understand why caution is being thrown to the wind when a vaccine is so close.
It's going to be a Zoom Christmas for me I think.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 24, 2020, 04:30:36 PM
I don't understand it either. This 5 day Xmas amnesty could be very costly for the overworked NHS.

I'm sticking with my legal one on one support bubble and nowhere else.

On a more positive note the sister-in-law won't invite me this year :)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 24, 2020, 04:33:28 PM
Wonder if he's overestimated the number of tests required ?
Or if he and Harding reckon they have found a cash cow?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/24/matt-hancock-wants-to-use-nhs-testing-system-to-fight-flu-after-covid

[link removed by Admin]
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 24, 2020, 07:57:48 PM
I don't think they will ever stop testing for Covid. Even if the entire population are vaccinated (never going to happen) then the 10% that it doesn't protect will still be infectious and infected.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 24, 2020, 08:14:35 PM
I don't think they will ever stop testing for Covid. Even if the entire population are vaccinated (never going to happen) then the 10% that it doesn't protect will still be infectious and infected.

Hopefully, if enough get vaccinated, that magical thing 'herd immunity' should take over.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 25, 2020, 09:42:48 AM
I don't understand it either. This 5 day Xmas amnesty could be very costly for the overworked NHS.

And lots of other people as well.
Stay safe.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/25/families-bereaved-covid-uk-plan-allow-christmas-mixing-sheer-madness
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: UKjim on November 25, 2020, 06:13:29 PM
I don't understand it either. This 5 day Xmas amnesty could be very costly for the overworked NHS.

And lots of other people as well.
Stay safe.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/25/families-bereaved-covid-uk-plan-allow-christmas-mixing-sheer-madness

Have to agree, I will be exercising extreme caution over the Christmas period, I’m hoping as a ‘mature’ extremely clinically vulnerable person I will be receiving the vaccine soon after Christmas, so don’t want to spoil my survival chances!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 25, 2020, 08:16:43 PM
Watched the Nicola Sturgeon/Jason Leitch double act on today's update and they pretty well said, here is what is going to happen at Christmas, but if you do it then hell mend you. Jason said that the Christmas easing of restriction would kill people. No messing about the bush. And my wife still wants to go and see her daughter!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 25, 2020, 08:39:50 PM
Watched the Nicola Sturgeon/Jason Leitch double act on today's update and they pretty well said, here is what is going to happen at Christmas, but if you do it then hell mend you. Jason said that the Christmas easing of restriction would kill people. No messing about the bush. And my wife still wants to go and see her daughter!

It's the same sort of thing down here. Boris the Bountiful is telling you that you can do all these wonderful things at Christmas, whilst the scientific advisors are telling you that it will be a disaster if you do.

They're shouting 'heads' and 'tails' at the same time again. People will hear the bits they want to.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on November 26, 2020, 09:17:44 AM
Mixing at Christmas is a mistake. It'll be hard for some people, but it's hopefully just for one year. We have all made a lot of changes this year, so I don't see why a couple of days in December should be any different. The post festive bubble impact could prove to be disastrous for the NHS, and all for what?

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 27, 2020, 10:47:30 AM
Just don't rely on the Oxford vaccine rushing to our aid soon.

It is now in a new test after the botched first ones. (one small subsection given half dose in error, which turned out more effective than the  full doses ..   ).The most effective botched test was only tested on under 55s.
The Government has "bought" 100M doses and is relying on it to work.

"Government could face 'tough choices' over Oxford vaccine, former adviser says"

https://tinyurl.com/y53nko85
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 27, 2020, 01:26:37 PM
Not good news coming out of Wales and Northern Ireland, the R0 has shot up as high as 1.4 in Wales since the end of lockdown, it was down to 1.0-1.1.

In other news,

Quote
Downing Street has said there are “no plans” to have the union flag printed on the Oxford and AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine, following reports that No 10’s union unit had asked for the flag to appear on packaging.

 ::)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on November 27, 2020, 01:45:58 PM
It does seem that when lockdown ends so does common sense.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 27, 2020, 02:02:32 PM

In other news,
Quote
Downing Street has said there are “no plans” to have the union flag printed on the Oxford and AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine, following reports that No 10’s union unit had asked for the flag to appear on packaging.
::)
Much more important to print the correct dosage.

Just followed your link to it's source. (or one of them)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-vaccine-union-jack-oxford-b1762783.html

Sounds typical.
Further quote from the Observer article
"The Union flag has been a symbol of the United Kingdom since 1801 and is viewed by some Conservatives as a potent tool in the fight against the break-up of the UK."

IMHO it's having quite the reverse effect in Scotland. It annoys me when I see it on potatoes from Ayrshire or raspberries from Kirriemuir.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: VicW on November 27, 2020, 03:25:03 PM
I think that the current lockdown should continue for at least another two weeks and should apply to the whole of the
UK. We appear to be making progress on the 'R' rate Then a decision on the rules for Christmas should be made, again for the whole of the UK,
The three tier system causes confusion and encourages people to cross borders to avoid restrictions.
There are comments why counties like Lincolnshire wasn't divided up by council districts. Within only a few miles I can travel to four other districts and a bit further on I can travel to Kings Lynn in Norfolk if I want to eat out.
At least we are not as bad as parts of the USA, where we have relations, where the face covering and distancing are largely ignored. It's not surprising that they have such appalling Covid numbers.

Vic.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 27, 2020, 04:47:48 PM

At least we are not as bad as parts of the USA, where we have relations, where the face covering and distancing are largely ignored. It's not surprising that they have such appalling Covid numbers.

Vic.

If you take US deaths from Covid and adjust for the population, the UK and US have broadly similar death rates.

UK Cases:  1.57M  Deaths :  57.031  Population 66.7M
US Cases: 13.27M Deaths : 269,692 Population  331.0M

 Ratios:     
Cases per Million:       UK 23,528  US 40,090
Deaths per million:     UK      855  US     815


So the US has nearly double the cases but a lower death rate both per infection and by population

I assume the US medical system is more efficient.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 27, 2020, 04:51:35 PM
"The Union flag has been a symbol of the United Kingdom since 1801 and is viewed by some Conservatives as a potent tool in the fight against the break-up of the UK."

IMHO it's having quite the reverse effect in Scotland. It annoys me when I see it on potatoes from Ayrshire or raspberries from Kirriemuir.
This is my impression too. Scots look upon the Union Flag, wrongly, as the flag of England particularly associating it with the England football team and with the troublemaking element that follows England.

And as you know, Scots all support two teams. Scotland and whoever are playing England.  :D
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on November 27, 2020, 05:48:15 PM
"The Union flag has been a symbol of the United Kingdom since 1801 and is viewed by some Conservatives as a potent tool in the fight against the break-up of the UK."

IMHO it's having quite the reverse effect in Scotland. It annoys me when I see it on potatoes from Ayrshire or raspberries from Kirriemuir.
This is my impression too. Scots look upon the Union Flag, wrongly, as the flag of England

Wait until the vaccine comes... "Come here and hold still while I inject you full of British"

Daniel Hannan on twitbook thinks it's a great idea, that's all I need to know.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 27, 2020, 06:10:51 PM
"The Union flag has been a symbol of the United Kingdom since 1801 and is viewed by some Conservatives as a potent tool in the fight against the break-up of the UK."


This is my impression too. Scots look upon the Union Flag, wrongly, as the flag of England particularly associating it with the England football team and with the troublemaking element that follows England.

And as you know, Scots all support two teams. Scotland and whoever are playing England.  :D
I'm not anti-English at all.
It's just the Tory toff ruling claaas, who are robbing them blind,(as well as we Scots) that I can't stand.
Oh and their sports commentators.

Edit Added sports commentators.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on November 27, 2020, 07:13:22 PM
Have you seen the latest Test and Trace bloomer? 1,300 people were told they were positive when their tests were in fact void. One poor lassie spent 4 days shut in her room with her meals getting left at her door.

In the first week of travel restrictions, Police Scotland issued 33 fixed penalty notices to drivers leaving their area for other than "essential travel".
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 27, 2020, 08:13:30 PM
Have you seen the latest Test and Trace bloomer? 1,300 people were told they were positive when their tests were in fact void.


Not so serious as the thousands of people they have failed to contact.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-newwave-me/britains-covid-19-track-and-trace-failures-in-numbers-idUKKBN28411Q

Edit Added link
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 28, 2020, 11:01:40 AM
Have you seen the latest Test and Trace bloomer? 1,300 people were told they were positive when their tests were in fact void.


Not so serious as the thousands of people they have failed to contact.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-newwave-me/britains-covid-19-track-and-trace-failures-in-numbers-idUKKBN28411Q

Edit Added link

Article here comparing approach to testing and tracing in UK to other countries.
UK and France have gone for maximising numbers as opposed to targetting. Systems have become overwhelmed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/18/covid-test-and-trace-uk-compare-other-countries-south-korea-germany

Edit Oops forgot link
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on November 28, 2020, 12:21:03 PM
Germany's track and trace is apparently overwhelmed by numbers this time.
Hence far worse infection numbers than first wave.

(Wave 1 mainly young people from skiing holidays in Austria - easily traced.
Now older people.)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on November 29, 2020, 02:45:15 PM

At least we are not as bad as parts of the USA, where we have relations, where the face covering and distancing are largely ignored. It's not surprising that they have such appalling Covid numbers.

Vic.

If you take US deaths from Covid and adjust for the population, the UK and US have broadly similar death rates.

UK Cases:  1.57M  Deaths :  57.031  Population 66.7M
US Cases: 13.27M Deaths : 269,692 Population  331.0M

 Ratios:     
Cases per Million:       UK 23,528  US 40,090
Deaths per million:     UK      855  US     815


So the US has nearly double the cases but a lower death rate both per infection and by population

I assume the US medical system is more efficient.
As well as having nearly the highest death rate it has spent proportionately more than other countries, much of this squandered on untendered contracts to cronies.

https://www-ft-com.eur.idm.oclc.org/content/1f52fd2b-7daf-418e-be8b-acc38f819b8d
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 01, 2020, 09:15:00 AM
So that is Lewis Hamilton tested positive for Covid-19. He woke up with mild symptoms and two tests both came back positive.
My brother was telling me his step-daughter tested positive but is asymptomatic. She is taking part in some research where she is tested weekly, and this week she hit the jackpot. The concern is that my sister-in-law watches her children every day and so sees her twice daily. My brother is a bit worried as he has Prostate cancer and will be 70 this month. Not a great combination.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 01, 2020, 09:55:00 AM
..and we now have (censored by me) Tory MP's who want to open up !!!

I hope this vote gets through
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 04, 2020, 12:07:21 PM
Scary stuff.
People are being given access to care homes and students are  returning home on the strength of lateral flow tests which may only be 70% accurate.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/03/experts-call-for-end-of-rapid-covid-tests-in-universities-and-care-homes-in-england

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-tests-rapid-moonshot-johnson_uk_5fca04d6c5b6636e09245722
Edit added 2nd link
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 04, 2020, 12:43:09 PM
And what about the "High-value business class travellers" not needing to quarantine. I am glad it doesn't pertain in Scotland.
Another them and us situation.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 04, 2020, 04:28:26 PM
Scary stuff.
People are being given access to care homes and students are  returning home on the strength of lateral flow tests which may only be 70% accurate.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/03/experts-call-for-end-of-rapid-covid-tests-in-universities-and-care-homes-in-england

And saliva tests are even worse.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/04/experts-question-claimed-accuracy-of-covid-19-saliva-tests

Edit Added Saliva Tests link
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 04, 2020, 04:38:56 PM
And what about the "High-value business class travellers" not needing to quarantine. I am glad it doesn't pertain in Scotland.
Another them and us situation.

All Scots are expected to travel economy class. ;D

Sorry Jocko I pressed quote instead of modify on my last post.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on December 06, 2020, 09:17:47 AM
Scary stuff.
People are being given access to care homes and students are  returning home on the strength of lateral flow tests which may only be 70% accurate.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/03/experts-call-for-end-of-rapid-covid-tests-in-universities-and-care-homes-in-england

And saliva tests are even worse.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/04/experts-question-claimed-accuracy-of-covid-19-saliva-tests

Edit Added Saliva Tests link

There seems to be a selective interpretation of the policy regarding these “rapid” tests which is creating a dangerous misunderstanding.

They are intended as a mass screening tool to identify asymptomatic virus carriers. Even if they are only (say) 50% accurate, you will still have identified and isolated a large number of people who didn’t know they were carrying it, and that’ll reduce virus prevalence. And folks with a negative result still have to follow the hands-face-space routine just in case they’ve got a false negative.

But if you misuse these tests to tell people they are virus-free (eg students, care-home visitors, etc) then you’re creating false confidence because a significant number of results will be false negatives. These tests just shouldn’t be used that way ... but that’s what’s happening.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 06, 2020, 11:47:26 AM
Am I remembering right that these lateral flow tests are more likely to give a false positive than a false negative?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 06, 2020, 12:07:28 PM
Am I remembering right that these lateral flow tests are more likely to give a false positive than a false negative?
My understanding is that they are not fit for purpose in that they only pick up those with a high viral load.ie the danger is in false negatives.

“The poor detection rate of the test makes it entirely unsuitable for the government’s claim that it will allow safe ‘test and release’ of people from lockdown and students from university,” he warned. “As the test may miss up to half of covid-19 cases, a negative test result indicates a reduced risk of infection but does not exclude covid-19."

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4469
 
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on December 06, 2020, 01:09:01 PM
...  they are not fit for purpose ...

That’s certainly true if you think their purpose is to tell individuals whether they have the virus or not with a high degree of certainty aka “test & release”. Unfortunately that’s the message that the general public are receiving, hence the agitated hand-wringing about accuracy now appearing in the media.

However if you subscribe to the view that their purpose is to screen the population and identify asymptomatic carriers then they may be meeting that purpose although the jury's still out. There’s not yet been a report on the Liverpool pilot to demonstrate effectiveness, as discussed here:
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4690
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 06, 2020, 02:24:53 PM
...  they are not fit for purpose ...

That’s certainly true if you think their purpose is to tell individuals whether they have the virus or not with a high degree of certainty aka “test & release”. Unfortunately that’s the message that the general public are receiving, hence the agitated hand-wringing about accuracy now appearing in the media.

However if you subscribe to the view that their purpose is to screen the population and identify asymptomatic carriers then they may be meeting that purpose although the jury's still out. There’s not yet been a report on the Liverpool pilot to demonstrate effectiveness, as discussed here:
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4690

It seems that much of what the government does is for show - the most tests, the most money spent, rather than on effectiveness.


From the article:-
"Potential harms
Pollock believes that the harms of testing have not been adequately considered. “Some people are getting false reassurance as the tests are not very accurate,” she said. “People were being told on the radio that if they got a negative test they could go about their business.” She added that, since she raised concerns, the FAQ page on the Liverpool council website has been updated to include information on false negatives, and it now says that a negative lateral flow test result does not constitute a “green pass.”

Another issue is the cost. It is not known how much has been spent on the pilot in Liverpool, which has involved 2000 army personnel. But the government recently advertised a contract for £912m to deliver rapid testing across the country.6 “This is costing huge amounts of money and resources,” says Pollock. “It could have been better used for tracing contacts and supporting those who are isolating.”
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 06, 2020, 02:26:48 PM
...  they are not fit for purpose ...

That’s certainly true if you think their purpose is to tell individuals whether they have the virus or not with a high degree of certainty aka “test & release”. Unfortunately that’s the message that the general public are receiving, hence the agitated hand-wringing about accuracy now appearing in the media.

However if you subscribe to the view that their purpose is to screen the population and identify asymptomatic carriers then they may be meeting that purpose although the jury's still out. There’s not yet been a report on the Liverpool pilot to demonstrate effectiveness, as discussed here:
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4690
a 50% right test can be replicated by tossing a coin. Cheaper and quicker.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on December 09, 2020, 10:19:17 AM
brilliant christmas compilation to cheer you up - god knows this thread needs cheering up.


Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 10, 2020, 08:29:23 AM
I am a bit concerned about the testing that was done on the Pfizer vaccine. Of the thousands of test subjects, there appears to have been no allergic reactions to the jab, but of the relatively few that got the vaccine on its first day, there were two cases. Did Pfizer see this but failed to report it?
Just adds some concern and more fuel for the anti-vaxxers.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 10, 2020, 08:45:11 AM
I am a bit concerned about the testing that was done on the Pfizer vaccine. Of the thousands of test subjects, there appears to have been no allergic reactions to the jab, but of the relatively few that got the vaccine on its first day, there were two cases. Did Pfizer see this but failed to report it?
Just adds some concern and more fuel for the anti-vaxxers.
I think it's more the case that those who had allergic reactions to other things would not volunteer to act as test subjects or  would be refused access to trials after screening.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on December 10, 2020, 10:31:49 AM
I am a bit concerned about the testing that was done on the Pfizer vaccine. Of the thousands of test subjects, there appears to have been no allergic reactions to the jab, but of the relatively few that got the vaccine on its first day, there were two cases. Did Pfizer see this but failed to report it?
Just adds some concern and more fuel for the anti-vaxxers.

It's worth reading a little deeper into this before jumping to conclusions, eg here:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-reports-of-allergic-reaction-in-two-healthcare-workers-who-had-a-history-of-serious-allergies-and-who-received-the-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine/

Amongst the comments there are that:
- "The occurrence of any allergic reaction was one of the factors monitored in the phase 3 clinical trial of this Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, the detailed data from which was released yesterday.  In this, they reported a very small number of allergic reactions in both the vaccine and placebo groups (0.63% and 0.51%)."
- "For the general population this does not mean that they would need to be anxious about receiving the vaccination.  One has to remember that even things like marmite can cause unexpected severe allergic reactions."

So yes, Pfizer did report it, and even in the placebo group there were adverse reactions. It's not even clear that the two reported cases were related to the vaccine. The reactions during the trial seem to have been sufficiently mild not to worry the MHRA and even the two cases yesterday were quickly treated. We can take comfort from the fact that these early vaccinations are being closely monitored and the procedural mechanisms kicked in immediately to issue new guidance (hopefully - for anyone who knows they are allergic - these are temporary).

Of course none of that logic will register with the anti-vaxx loonies.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 10, 2020, 10:46:47 AM


Of course none of that logic will register with the anti-vaxx loonies.
[/quote]

I have a response to the anti vax loonies which goes like this:-

"I have had a flu jab and been injected with my microchip already so I don't worry about taking the covid jab as  Bill Gates does not want to waste money duplicating effort. I can still hear him quite clearly when he tells me what to do..."

Usually they shut up at that point.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 10, 2020, 10:48:31 AM
I feel that Pfizer only released the data because MHRA gave out the warning. I may be wrong. It won't stop me queuing for my jab, but it has certainly added additional doubt to my wife, and probably many others.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 10, 2020, 11:29:13 AM
I'm happy to have it, if nothing else to protect me and others.

If it helps then I'm in. Far better than long Covid.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on December 10, 2020, 11:38:07 AM
I am a bit concerned about the testing that was done on the Pfizer vaccine. Of the thousands of test subjects, there appears to have been no allergic reactions to the jab, but of the relatively few that got the vaccine on its first day, there were two cases. Did Pfizer see this but failed to report it?
Just adds some concern and more fuel for the anti-vaxxers.


If you look at criteria for inclusion and exclusion from the vaccine trials it is obvious they only test vaccine on younger healthier people who are not too fat or thin anyway, many existing health conditions including allergies can exclude you - so they only test the vaccine on the people least likely to get sick anyway - is that a good thing ?  And with the speed of the trials missing out many important steps and checks what could possibly go wrong ? Approval of the vaccines would seem to be a political rather than a medical decision,  give it to the oldies first because they probably won't live long enough to sue the pharma companies or government.   Vaccines normally take a long time to get approval because they normally check for long term effects,  to approve a messenger RNA vaccine in such a short time is suspect - the technology has been around for about 30 years and never been approved for human use for anything before. - It was mainly trialed for for cancer where the odds of the patient living were pretty low anyway, with or without the mRNA treatment.

If they offer me the Pfizer or any other mRNA jab I won't be taking it - I would rather get the Oxford one which although revolutionary is based on more mainstream proven adenovirus science..

There is much more scope for the Oxford type to be the leading vaccine worldwide because it does not need storage and transport at silly temperatures - the facilities for which do not exist in most of the world.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461


https://www.newsmax.com/us/vaccine/2020/10/21/id/993147/

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 10, 2020, 12:01:22 PM

If you look at criteria for inclusion and exclusion from the vaccine trials it is obvious they only test vaccine on younger healthier people who are not too fat or thin anyway, many existing health conditions including allergies can exclude you - so they only test the vaccine on the people least likely to get sick anyway - is that a good thing ? 
From New Scientist
"Does it work in older people?
Yes. Trial participants were aged up to 85, and the efficacy in people over 65 was 94 per cent – a tiny bit lower than the overall number but still very protective, and much higher than some vaccine experts feared. The vaccine hasn’t been tested in people aged over 85."

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2261805-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine/#ixzz6gDoTd7xE
Latest edit Added Source and quotation marks.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on December 10, 2020, 12:06:30 PM
Bit more christmas cheer


Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 10, 2020, 12:19:39 PM
Bit more christmas cheer


Not as funny when they're better than the original  :P

Has there ever been a jokes/fun type thread on here? ...or do they get out of hand and get chopped?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on December 10, 2020, 06:40:00 PM
So many of these great videos out there to cheer folks up...

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 11, 2020, 09:17:36 PM
Well, my old Dad was called up for the jab this afternoon.  :)

He has an appointment for Tuesday, with the second dose following in 3 weeks.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 11, 2020, 09:19:00 PM
Excellent. I am looking forward to getting mine.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 11, 2020, 09:26:36 PM
Excellent. I am looking forward to getting mine.

Ditto, but I think we'll be well down the list.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 12, 2020, 11:06:35 AM
The downward spiral at our kids' large secondary school continues.

All the maths department are now off isolating, so maths lessons are cancelled.

Oh, and due to a confirmed positive case in the kitchens, they are closed - so no hot food.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 12, 2020, 11:16:36 AM
The downward spiral at our kids' large secondary school continues.

All the maths department are now off isolating, so maths lessons are cancelled.

Oh, and due to a confirmed positive case in the kitchens, they are closed - so no hot food.

What's all this about?
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/dec/12/minister-threatens-school-heads-over-pre-christmas-online-lessons
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 12, 2020, 01:53:26 PM
A further 11 schools in Fife have reported Covid cases in the past 48 hours and there have been deaths in two Fife care homes this week. The local rag this weekend has the headline "Tier 2 for Christmas". I don't think so.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 12, 2020, 06:39:59 PM
What's all this about?
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/dec/12/minister-threatens-school-heads-over-pre-christmas-online-lessons

It's madness. Why they can't shut schools early to give them a clear 10 days at home, I don't know. Instead, they threaten parents with fines and headteachers with prosecution.

There are kids out there who are clear now, but match catch it over the next week. Surely it would be worth it to give everyone the best chance of not having to isolate over Xmas, as well as helping those who want to take advantage of the relaxed visiting over the period.

We are ruled by complete idiots.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on December 12, 2020, 06:55:28 PM
We are ruled by complete idiots.

That’s not strictly  true. They’re not complete idiots. Some faculties are clearly missing.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 13, 2020, 09:11:21 AM
We are ruled by complete idiots.

That’s not strictly  true. They’re not complete idiots. Some faculties are clearly missing.

"You stupid boy Pike"
Schools in Greenwich, south-east London, have been asked to close from Monday evening after “exponential growth” of coronavirus demanded “immediate action”, the council said, amid reports that the capital is likely to enter tier 3 soon.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/dec/13/coronavirus-live-news-germany-to-tighten-restrictions-as-us-nears-300000-deaths-after-another-record-day?page=with:block-5fd66a018f08a72f01ad99db#block-5fd66a018f08a72f01ad99db
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 13, 2020, 10:59:52 PM
London coronavirus: Latest list of the schools across the capital which are closed due to Covid-19

Most schools are closing due to staff shortages

https://www.mylondon.news/news/south-london-news/london-coronavirus-latest-list-schools-17941953
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on December 14, 2020, 10:56:12 AM
My eldest lives and works in central London. He says people have got really casual about it. He walks to work to avoid the tube. He's getting really nervous about it now and is glad to be coming home to Yorkshire (Tier 3) for a few days of peace far from the madding crowds.

It is absolutely no surprise when you look at the London boroughs infection maps to see that schools and workplaces are the super spreading points, not bars and restaurants.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 14, 2020, 11:41:19 AM
My eldest lives and works in central London. He says people have got really casual about it. He walks to work to avoid the tube. He's getting really nervous about it now and is glad to be coming home to Yorkshire (Tier 3) for a few days of peace far from the madding crowds.

It is absolutely no surprise when you look at the London boroughs infection maps to see that schools and workplaces are the super spreading points, not bars and restaurants.

Schools, workplaces and bars and restaurants (and households)

Last edit Added households.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 14, 2020, 12:13:13 PM
I have a friend who travels round London and there are mask checks at the tube barriers.

Then as soon as they get out of sight the mask gets pulled down round their chin. Same on buses.

We have some very selfish/silly/ignorant (delete as required) people who moan about lockdown then potentially add to it.


And then on the opposite end I see people in cars, on their own, wearing a mask, can't work that one out.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on December 14, 2020, 12:59:08 PM
Yes - common sense seems to be in very short supply.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Happyarry on December 14, 2020, 01:35:09 PM
Such a hullabaloo now that it hits the Capital though.

Cities further North have been struggling with it for months with many businesses decimated. Time for everyone to pull together methinks.

Harry.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 14, 2020, 01:43:49 PM
Just hearing on the news that only just over 100 GP surgeries are actually getting the vaccine.

It appears that my Dad's been very lucky!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 14, 2020, 02:44:39 PM
Don't move Pike !
    Downing Street rejected the proposal from Sadiq Khan for schools in London to close early ahead of Christmas. (See 11.18am.) Asked about this, the prime minister’s spokesman said:
"We’ve consistently said that not being in school has a detrimental impact on children’s learning as well as their own personal development and mental health.
Which is why we expect all schools and colleges to remain open until the end of term on Thursday, as schools have remained open throughout the pandemic."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/dec/14/brexit-covid-coronavirus-boris-johnson-uk-news-live-updates?page=with:block-5fd767778f08a72f01ada489#block-5fd767778f08a72f01ada489

Why do they always U turn at the wrong time and persist when it is glaringly obvious they are on the wrong course?
See also next item on newsfeed re Christmas.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 14, 2020, 03:02:14 PM
Don't move Pike !
 
Why do they always U turn at the wrong time and persist when it is glaringly obvious they are on the wrong course?

Simples. They have zero expertise running anything in the real world coupled with a superiority complex . A deadly combination when they have excrement for brains.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 14, 2020, 05:09:08 PM
And then on the opposite end I see people in cars, on their own, wearing a mask, can't work that one out.
I sometimes do that if I am driving from one shop to the next. I leave my mask on for the couple of minutes I am in the car.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 14, 2020, 05:25:40 PM
He wouldn't make it up --- would he ?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-scepticism-over-uk-claims-of-a-faster-spreading-variant/
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on December 14, 2020, 06:08:25 PM
He wouldn't make it up --- would he ?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-scepticism-over-uk-claims-of-a-faster-spreading-variant/

When it is spreading in the North it is due to our dirty habits and inability to behave. When it is spreading in London, ooh! It must be a new strain. It's a shame Have I Got News For You is on a break as they would have a field day with this!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 14, 2020, 11:32:11 PM
Don't move Pike !
 
Why do they always U turn at the wrong time and persist when it is glaringly obvious they are on the wrong course?

Simples. They have zero expertise running anything in the real world coupled with a superiority complex . A deadly combination when they have excrement for brains.

You  show them Pike.

"The government has launched legal action against a London council over plans to close schools, using emergency coronavirus legislation for the first time to ensure they are kept open for face-to-face learning until the end of term."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/sadiq-khan-urges-pm-to-let-london-schools-close-early-to-combat-covid

Last Edit Added quote
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 15, 2020, 12:13:47 AM
He wouldn't make it up --- would he ?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-scepticism-over-uk-claims-of-a-faster-spreading-variant/

Good explanation of new covid variant here
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/14/englands-new-covid-variant-should-we-be-worried
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 15, 2020, 04:39:30 AM
It just shows, if true, that this is a dangerous virus and needs treating with respect till the vaccine rollout starts in earnest. Then we need a month or two for the vaccine to work.

And yet we still have mass shopping crowds like the weekend shots of a pedestrianised Regent Street in London that looked horrendous.

I don't understand these gamblers putting us all at higher risk.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 15, 2020, 09:37:06 AM
New variants are appearing all the time, but it was alarmist of Hancock to suggest that it could be spreading faster or be more resistant to vaccines than other variants. (he can always cover himself by saying that he said "may").
More research would be needed.
Whitty pointed out that the rapid growth in London could be due to other factors such as density of population or flaunting of rules and it would be difficult to isolate the factors.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/no-evidence-new-variant-coronavirus-19458051

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-55308416

However that doesn't stop the media
DEADLY STRAIN New Covid strain ripping through the South is forcing 11million more Brits into Tier 3 lockdowns
Latest
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13474181/new-coronavirus-strain-spreading-hancock/

THE NEW super-contagious mutation of COVID-19 has already rapidly spread across Britain, according to experts.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1372883/new-covid-strain-mutation-coronavirus-uk-contagious-scotland-wales-cases-deaths-UK
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 15, 2020, 09:51:45 AM
There is no doubt that there is a new strain identified, but some scepticism as to whether is is more infectious, or in any other way more dangerous.

However, they are sufficiently worried to be testing it at Porton Down to try to ascertain whether this new strain affect the efficacy of vaccines.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on December 15, 2020, 10:30:47 AM
A hidden side of covid, is its impact on mental health. I also keep reading about increased cases of abuse, as vulnerable people are being forced to spend more time with their abusers. The world is going through some very tough times. Stay safe.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 15, 2020, 12:44:19 PM
There is no doubt that there is a new strain identified, but some scepticism as to whether is is more infectious, or in any other way more dangerous.

However, they are sufficiently worried to be testing it at Porton Down to try to ascertain whether this new strain affect the efficacy of vaccines.

That would be horrendous but hopefully unlikely.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 15, 2020, 06:31:55 PM
So the four governments have met and discussed rescinding the Christmas easing of restriction but have decided to have another meeting tomorrow. No 10 doesn't want to go back on promises made, irrespective of the consequences. It is going to be another UK government fudge.
Nicola has intimated that she may break with the other nations and take Scotland on its own route. I sincerely hope so.
Personally, I do not want to put my wife, my mother-in-law and myself at risk for a Christmas dinner. My step-daughter is travelling up from Windsor, and the grandsons are in 5th and 6th year at school. Mum is 96. What could possibly go wrong?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 15, 2020, 06:42:21 PM
So the four governments have met and discussed rescinding the Christmas easing of restriction but have decided to have another meeting tomorrow. No 10 doesn't want to go back on promises made, irrespective of the consequences. It is going to be another UK government fudge.
Nicola has intimated that she may break with the other nations and take Scotland on its own route. I sincerely hope so.
Personally, I do not want to put my wife, my mother-in-law and myself at risk for a Christmas dinner. My step-daughter is travelling up from Windsor, and the grandsons are in 5th and 6th year at school. Mum is 96. What could possibly go wrong?

Few few Covid policy statements have been made and not reversed within 4 weeks - some in less than one week.
The current 4 nations agreement was announced 24th November. SO 3 weeks ago.

Just in time to be reversed -within the 4 week period.

Thanks goodness for a Government which thinks ahead.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 15, 2020, 08:27:11 PM
So the four governments have met and discussed rescinding the Christmas easing of restriction but have decided to have another meeting tomorrow. No 10 doesn't want to go back on promises made, irrespective of the consequences. It is going to be another UK government fudge.
Nicola has intimated that she may break with the other nations and take Scotland on its own route. I sincerely hope so.
Personally, I do not want to put my wife, my mother-in-law and myself at risk for a Christmas dinner. My step-daughter is travelling up from Windsor, and the grandsons are in 5th and 6th year at school. Mum is 96. What could possibly go wrong?

Just the two of us and Zoom
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 15, 2020, 10:07:25 PM
Personally, I do not want to put my wife, my mother-in-law and myself at risk for a Christmas dinner. My step-daughter is travelling up from Windsor, and the grandsons are in 5th and 6th year at school. Mum is 96. What could possibly go wrong?

I don't blame how you feel Jocko. What a mess this whole thing is.

Dad had his jab today, and Mum's been called up to go for hers tomorrow. Roll on when we can all have one.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on December 16, 2020, 08:39:07 AM
So the four governments have met and discussed rescinding the Christmas easing of restriction but have decided to have another meeting tomorrow. No 10 doesn't want to go back on promises made, irrespective of the consequences. It is going to be another UK government fudge.
Ms Sturgeon has demonstrated that she is not Boris's poodle, and is quite capable of making her own decisions based on what she considers best for Scotland. I would doubt very much that she'll go along with Boris just because he wants her to. So whatever guidance is issued to Scotland as a result of today's four-nations meeting will not be a "UK government fudge", it'll be a decision by the Scottish government.

Personally, I do not want to put my wife, my mother-in-law and myself at risk for a Christmas dinner. My step-daughter is travelling up from Windsor, and the grandsons are in 5th and 6th year at school. Mum is 96. What could possibly go wrong?
Please excuse me for using your personal comment to make a general point, but you've neatly summarised the kind of dilemma we all face. It's not compulsory to meet up, we're being advised to be very cautious especially where elderly and at-risk relatives are concerned. You're not going to have a great time if you're constantly worrying about being infected. We all need to have the "Do we really need to do this?" conversation.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 16, 2020, 08:59:29 AM
It's not compulsory to meet up, we're being advised to be very cautious especially where elderly and at-risk relatives are concerned.

The Government have done it again. Whilst some will heed this advice and restrain their activities, others have heard that they can meet with other households for five days and are going to treat Xmas, and possibly new year, like a free-for-all.

I'm afraid it's another instance of the Government shouting heads and tails at the same time. People hear the bits they want to.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on December 16, 2020, 09:06:09 AM

Ms Sturgeon has demonstrated that she is not Boris's poodle, and is quite capable of making her own decisions based on what she considers best for Scotland.

The wee Krankie has done the same as the rest of UK,  but just a bit later to show how strong a leader she is ( LOL ) and not ruled by Westminster.  If anything Scotland has fared worse during pandemic than rest of UK.

https://www.cityam.com/covid-19-does-not-prove-the-case-for-scottish-independence-if-anything-it-does-the-opposite/
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 16, 2020, 09:22:47 AM
The wee Krankie has done the same as the rest of UK,  but just a bit later
I think you will find that most of what she has done she has done before the UK government. And as for Covid deaths in Scotland, Scotland has been the sick man of the UK for hundreds of years. Take a population where reaching retirement age is an achievement and throw in Covid and deaths will happen at a hellish rate. Scotland has suffered ill health long before Devolution. It has been with us since the Highland Clearances.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 16, 2020, 11:46:24 AM
Like her or loathe her, Nicola Sturgeon certainly puts the work in.
She very rarely misses a daily briefing and seems to be much more on the ball than the Westminster politicians.
She is willing to admit that she has made mistakes and takes the responsibility for them.
During the briefings she answers questions from the (often hostile) press to the best of her ability and in parliament she puts up with Ruth Davidson asking questions on Alex Salmond's indiscretions and Richard Leonard asking for the "eveedence" for what she has previously explained cannot be purely based on numbers.
In some matters she is constrained by UK policy and was certainly advocating more caution at Christmas long before Johnson acknowledged the inevitable harm mixing between regions and generations would do.

Anybody see this eedjit last night?
https://www.channel4.com/news/growing-frustration-and-anger-about-being-told-how-we-must-behave-and-what-we-must-do-tory-mp-sir-desmond-swayne

Last edit  Added link to Desmond Swayne
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 16, 2020, 01:31:26 PM
Comparing Covid Lockdowns at Christmas with Cromwell outlawing Christmas?  Just a little extreme surely?

Allowing individuals the freedom to make their own decisions?   We have courts, judges and prisons for those who make the wrong choices so obviously a number make the wrong choices in life. (Carefully not mentioned)

I thought that style of shirt collar went out with my father who gave them up in the 1970s (and would be 105 now if he was still alive)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 16, 2020, 01:39:26 PM
Here we go, portraying anyone that disagrees with the government plans to relax the rules as The Grinch, whilst at the same time, the government's scientific advisors warn of impending disaster.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 16, 2020, 02:18:19 PM
Here we go, portraying anyone that disagrees with the government plans to relax the rules as The Grinch, whilst at the same time, the government's scientific advisors warn of impending disaster.
Don't know if there is any way to catch up with Nicola Sturgeon's briefing today but I thought it was particularly relevant today.
If not it might be worth trying to see first ministers questions tomorrow when she will doubtless put forward her position again.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 16, 2020, 02:46:52 PM
Don't know if there is any way to catch up with Nicola Sturgeon's briefing today but I thought it was particularly relevant today.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 16, 2020, 02:56:03 PM
Jings. How did you do that? Thank you.
Hope Mr Culzean gives it a listen.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/nicola-sturgeon-urges-scots-to-stay-at-home-for-christmas-39870733.html
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: VicW on December 16, 2020, 03:06:40 PM
On BBC news earlier the 'Minister of the Day' was saying we must use our commonsense regarding the Christmas break having confirmed that the relaxed approach to Christmas was to stay.
The previous news coverage was of the morons in London 'celebrating' the start of London being now in Tier 3 by drinking in the street, ignoring distancing and face covering wearing.
 A typical example of commonsense indeed!

Vic.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 16, 2020, 04:22:39 PM
Looking at the plethora of pictures of crowds totally ignoring the distancing rule and a couldn't care less attitude I don't think commonsense is a good thing to rely on.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on December 16, 2020, 06:30:13 PM
I think science is being ignored by the Govt for two reasons.

Firstly, political. I will not turn this into a political thread, but I do believe in this instance the Government is putting ratings above safety.

Secondly, perceived societal wellbeing. There are enough people that find the festive period hard to deal with, add in the year we have had, and whilst I do not think we would see rioting, I do think it would exasperate an already bad situation. Mental health problems are recognised as part of our Covid situation, and "Cancelling Christmas" would cause fall out.

Yes common sense should be observed, but a minority frankly only think of themselves. I say, it is only one day, a Christian religious festival. Skip the get together for 2020, much like we have a lot of other things this year, and listen to the science. Mixing is wholly unnecessary. Ignore government rules and stay at home to keep everyone safe.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 16, 2020, 06:43:25 PM


Yes common sense should be observed, but a minority frankly only think of themselves. I say, it is only one day, a Christian religious festival. Skip the get together for 2020, much like we have a lot of other things this year, and listen to the science. Mixing is wholly unnecessary. Ignore government rules and stay at home to keep everyone safe.

About 25% of the population don't vote. Now I am not saying the next group are the same people, but I read surveys suggesting approx. 25% of the population don't follow the news. Or perhaps they get "news" from Social Media.

So when I see the crowds, they either don't care or don't know.. and some don't care they don't know...

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 16, 2020, 06:48:20 PM


Yes common sense should be observed, but a minority frankly only think of themselves. I say, it is only one day, a Christian religious festival. Skip the get together for 2020, much like we have a lot of other things this year, and listen to the science. Mixing is wholly unnecessary. Ignore government rules and stay at home to keep everyone safe.

About 25% of the population don't vote. Now I am not saying the next group are the same people, but I read surveys suggesting approx. 25% of the population don't follow the news. Or perhaps they get "news" from Social Media.

So when I see the crowds, they either don't care or don't know.. and some don't care they don't know...

And what percentage read the Barclay brothers' news?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 16, 2020, 08:30:08 PM
It's not compulsory to meet up, we're being advised to be very cautious especially where elderly and at-risk relatives are concerned.

The Government have done it again. Whilst some will heed this advice and restrain their activities, others have heard that they can meet with other households for five days and are going to treat Xmas, and possibly new year, like a free-for-all.

I'm afraid it's another instance of the Government shouting heads and tails at the same time. People hear the bits they want to.

John Crace sums it up brilliantly as usual
 "We now have Pontius Boris. A leader who has washed his hands of the difficult decisions. He had told people to have a shorter, safer “merry little Christmas” and he believed his job was done. If more people died, then it was their own stupid fault. Come January and February, there may well be a reckoning. Where’s the smarmy lawyer when you need him?"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/16/theatre-of-the-absurd-as-boris-tells-country-obey-the-rules-dont-obey-the-rules
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 16, 2020, 09:05:23 PM
I hear that the DfE is considering a delay to the start of January's school term.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 16, 2020, 09:20:49 PM


Yes common sense should be observed, but a minority frankly only think of themselves. I say, it is only one day, a Christian religious festival. Skip the get together for 2020, much like we have a lot of other things this year, and listen to the science. Mixing is wholly unnecessary. Ignore government rules and stay at home to keep everyone safe.

About 25% of the population don't vote. Now I am not saying the next group are the same people, but I read surveys suggesting approx. 25% of the population don't follow the news. Or perhaps they get "news" from Social Media.

So when I see the crowds, they either don't care or don't know.. and some don't care they don't know...

And what percentage read the Barclay brothers' news?

Circulation December 2019  317,817

UK Population  December 2019  66.5M


0.48%
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 16, 2020, 10:22:20 PM
I'm sorry I appear to have attributed too much blame to the Barclay brothers. I should have included Ruthermere, Desmond, Murdoch etc. as well as various dubious sources on the internet.
My point was that perhaps some of the blame could be attributed to what people read rather than what they didn't read (and then again perhaps not.)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 17, 2020, 08:25:22 AM
I'm sorry I appear to have attributed too much blame to the Barclay brothers. I should have included Ruthermere, Desmond, Murdoch etc. as well as various dubious sources on the internet.
My point was that perhaps some of the blame could be attributed to what people read rather than what they didn't read (and then again perhaps not.)

In the 1960s we had Vietnam protest rallies in the UK. I was a student at the time and studied in the Aberdeen  University Library . For relaxation I read the paper there- .. certainly all the main headlines. What struck me then as a teenager was how the number of people attending a protest march varied from "nearly a million" - the Guardian  to "around a hundred thousand" - the Telegraph.

After that, I trusted nothing I read. I still don't. I always double check.

See also : Covid 19 deaths in Wales. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55105307
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 17, 2020, 10:47:59 AM
I feel all the hype in the media just now regarding English areas moving from Tier 3 to Tier 2 is business pressure to try and force the government's hand.
There is a report this morning of a 10-year-old boy from West Lothian who was in ICU and spent two and a half days in a coma due to Covid, and he had no underlying health issues.
Another report from Police Scotland tells of police repeatedly being called to the same addresses for house "parties", despite issuing fines. Most seem to be in the West, the worst area for infections. Christmas is a huge worry, but Hogmanay is going to be even worse.
My brother (a retired police inspector) was telling me that if a breach is reported to the police, they are legally required to attend. I thought it was a matter of priorities
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on December 17, 2020, 10:53:53 AM
Got a message from our older daughter - she is Vice Principal of a 6th Form College in Wigan. We had planned a short get together on Boxing Day but said she was worried about infecting us - she described her place of work as "an asymptomatic petri dish." Our other daughter is a probation officer working out of HMP Risley where Covid is rampant - they've even got a Covid wing.

We'll do socially distanced present exchange and all get together when we have had our jabs.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 17, 2020, 12:32:30 PM
My brother (a retired police inspector) was telling me that if a breach is reported to the police, they are legally required to attend. I thought it was a matter of priorities

The Home Secretary was talking about "fragrent breaches" on the media circuit this morning. I'm pretty sure she meant 'flagrent', as I'm not sure what bearing odour would have on the matter at hand. ;D

That said, I get the impression that Police down here will not attend unless there's a disturbance or party-sized gatherings.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 17, 2020, 12:48:39 PM
Got a message from our older daughter - she is Vice Principal of a 6th Form College in Wigan. We had planned a short get together on Boxing Day but said she was worried about infecting us - she described her place of work as "an asymptomatic petri dish." Our other daughter is a probation officer working out of HMP Risley where Covid is rampant - they've even got a Covid wing.

It's probably rife everywhere where people are in confinement. There is a significant outbreak at HMP Ranby which is bumping up the case numbers in the local authority here, although there are lots of other areas in the district that are well over the average.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 17, 2020, 01:24:02 PM
Hospital occupancy for covid-19 has increased by 20% in the last 14 days.

Another 20% will reach the April peak.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 17, 2020, 01:31:00 PM
Well, that's me off the hook. My step-daughter sent her Mum a text today suggesting it could be dangerous for her gran to go to her house for Christmas as Sharon is using the train to go into the office at present and the boys' school has had a couple of cases this week. That then allowed my other half to point out that we are at risk too, so the outcome is we will go down to Mum's and have Christmas dinner there (we are a bubble anyway as Mum requires help from us in various ways) and Sharon will have dinner with her boys. She will give her gran a distanced garden visit on Christmas eve, and we will give them a similar visit on Christmas morning. Common sense prevails.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on December 17, 2020, 02:14:17 PM
The Home Secretary was talking about "fragrent breaches" on the media circuit this morning. I'm pretty sure she meant 'flagrent', as I'm not sure what bearing odour would have on the matter at hand. ;D

Brilliant! Given that loss of sense of smell is one of the signs of being Covid positive!  :D
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 17, 2020, 02:31:12 PM
So not washing to force others to keep their distance isn't always going fo work
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 17, 2020, 05:03:18 PM
Well, that's me off the hook.

It all sounds like a very sensible outcome. Sadly, I don't think that everyone will be following your good example.


In other news, proponents of the Swedish approach to covid - look away now...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/17/king-sweden-failed-covid-strategy-rare-royal-rebuke-lockdown-hospitals-cases/
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: RichardA on December 17, 2020, 08:18:37 PM
From 00:01 on Saturday the following areas will move from tier two to tier three:

    Bedfordshire
    Berkshire
    Buckinghamshire
    Hastings
    Rother (Bexhill, Battle & Rye)
    Hertfordshire
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth
    Gosport
    Havant
    Surrey, except Waverley (Farnham)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 18, 2020, 09:03:22 PM
Another cunning plan?
Another half-baked, panic-driven idea ?
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/dec/18/covid-unions-say-mass-testing-of-englands-pupils-undeliverable
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/coronavirus-testing-schools-headteachers-b1776317.html
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 18, 2020, 11:36:13 PM
Christmas is a huge worry, but Hogmanay is going to be even worse.
Perhaps not.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hogmanay-celebrations-new-year-coronavirus-b1775794.html?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=Feed

Meanwhile, dowwn in Lunding  :-
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=244258843736003

Last edit Added 2nd link
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 19, 2020, 03:15:29 PM
BJ press conference on TV at 4pm.

Things looking pretty grim for the SE of England, and Christmas being reigned back for the rest of us.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 19, 2020, 03:18:33 PM
Rumour of a tier 4 for us down here.

Xmas should be scaled down IMO. Until this vaccine starts doing its job it's madness to allow indoor mixing.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 19, 2020, 03:29:31 PM
Rumour of a tier 4 for us down here.

I think the gist of tier 4 is 'Christmas cancelled'. I can see a lot of people being very unhappy.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 19, 2020, 06:40:18 PM
Update for Scotland.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55379632
Messaging once again much clearer from Scottish Govt.than UK Govt.
If you can find a catchup of Sturgeon's briefing it's worth comparing it to the UK one.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 19, 2020, 06:48:23 PM
So Scotland is going into Tier 4 from Boxing Day. The whole of the country minus the islands. Dumfries and Galloway go straight from Tier 1 to 4. And it will be ILLEGAL to travel to or from Scotland from any other part of the UK. It is currently only advised.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on December 19, 2020, 07:30:19 PM
It will be hard for some, but without doubt the move is for the best. It will save lives.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 19, 2020, 07:35:56 PM


Update for Scotland.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55379632
Messaging once again much clearer from Scottish Govt.than UK Govt.
If you can find a catchup of Sturgeon's briefing it's worth comparing it to the UK one.
Found it myself this time
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55379632
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 20, 2020, 04:52:26 AM
I'm in an approved one on one support bubble but they are asking to keep travel 'local' in tier 4, which we are both in.

Trouble is we are 30 miles apart. What I can't find is whether I could be picked up for travelling 30 miles ? 
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 20, 2020, 07:55:24 AM
That's the cat out of the bag. (or should it be rats?)
Another super spreader event.
Well done Boris :o
Where are his psychologists when they are needed?   :(

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/traffic-tier-4-london-south-east-b1776612.html
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 20, 2020, 08:33:51 AM
That's the cat out of the bag. (or should it be rats?)
Another super spreader event.
Well done Boris :o
Where are his psychologists when they are needed?   :(

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/traffic-tier-4-london-south-east-b1776612.html

Don't be unkind to Boris.

He has not been committed yet.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 20, 2020, 08:34:26 AM
Exactly, could they have shut train stations immediately ?

"It's so serious you have to stay where you are"
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: springswood on December 20, 2020, 08:47:58 AM
Wonderful, so chances are that'll be bringing the new strain up north. WHO says though it spreads faster not more deadly. Still the Netherlands have stopped travel from the uk. I wonder if our kid will be able to get back to Portugal?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-55382212

I noticed that article says the trains were jammed. What are they doing selling that many tickets?

Just when Bradford seems to be getting on top of it. Possibly because our local tracing is reaching 86%

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 20, 2020, 12:02:27 PM
Too late Matt.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/20/police-to-stop-people-fleeing-new-covid-tier-4-areas-hancock-says

Anticipation is not the governments forte.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/20/sudden-u-turn-over-christmas-boris-johnson-caps-year-of-debacles
"The pattern is one of resisting taking the necessary steps at the time when they would have been most effective and then being compelled to implement them late and with more damaging effect."

Edit Added second link and quote from it
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 20, 2020, 02:40:27 PM
Today my wife and I went over to take shopping to her Mum and to do her washing. The Queensferry Crossing was packed with private cars travelling in both directions, into and out of Fife. Obviously everyone with essential reasons for travelling. The M8 was the same with steady traffic, mainly private cars, heading into and out of Midlothian and Edinburgh City. People don't give a $hit. Hogmanay is Scotland, under Tier 4 restrictions, will be a total joke. All the people who are following the rules are being sold down the river by the heid the baws up here.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 20, 2020, 02:52:06 PM
Same everywhere.
The only thing we can do as individuals is to stick to the rules and not be tempted into minor bending of them by the sight of those blatantly  infringing them.
It's easy to think that one minor infringement is not going to make a difference but if  a million people think  the same way ---

We should act as if we have got it and try to prevent spreading it to others
Obviously everybody doesn't think the same way
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/travelling-out-tier-4-inexcusable-23196463

Edit second bit + link
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 20, 2020, 03:13:05 PM
They have the power to fine these [censored by me] and should do it.

£200 first offence then doubles each time.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 20, 2020, 04:23:33 PM
A serving Police Scotland officer has just told me that the ANPR cars have been set to flag up cars not registered to addresses in Scotland.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 20, 2020, 04:58:52 PM
Positive case numbers over the last 7 days are over 50% higher than the previous 7 days.

I am now hoping for two things - that the vaccine is rolled out quickly, and secondly, that it keeps working.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 20, 2020, 06:54:28 PM
Positive case numbers over the last 7 days are over 50% higher than the previous 7 days.

I am now hoping for two things - that the vaccine is rolled out quickly, and secondly, that it keeps working.

Yes and there are a lot of tier 2 areas above 100 cases per 100,000 and rising.
My fear is that Johnson drags his feet again before putting them into stricter restrictions.

"It is folly for UK’s devolved nations to follow Westminster’s example, writes Professor Gabriel Scally"
It's time Westminster once again followed the devolved nations into lockdown at least till more is known about the variant virus.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-uk-sage-boris-johnson-decisions-b1776849.html

Edit Added link
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 20, 2020, 11:03:33 PM
France has just closed the border with the UK for 48hrs and is only allowing unaccompanied freight until a testing regime is agreed.

Germany, Italy and Ireland have also introduced travel bans, with many other countries following.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 21, 2020, 05:10:36 AM
You can't blame them.

Maybe we'll see dinghy people travelling both ways in the channel ?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 21, 2020, 08:22:02 AM
You can't blame them.

Maybe we'll see dinghy people travelling both ways in the channel ?

Nope.
The people from SE England have jumped into cars and trains * and spread themselves all over the UK and some have even gone on Eurostar before it was shut down and gone to their holiday homes in Europe.
They should have been isolated and tested instead of panicked.

*And planes
"On Sunday night, Gatwick was packed with last-minute travellers, including some attempting to fly on complicated transit routes via eastern Europe, to reach destinations that had already closed borders. Many were denied boarding as regulations changed by the hour.
France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Portugal, Belgium, Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, Romania, Croatia and the Netherlands have all said they would ban flights arriving from the UK. The Czech Republic has imposed stricter quarantine measures for people arriving from Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/covid-chaos-disrupts-kent-ports-as-europe-travel-bans-take-hold
Last edit added planes
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 21, 2020, 09:44:09 AM
I've just driven home (Reading to London) from a support bubble and even though there's little open the roads were just as busy as normal as a few weeks ago under mini lockdown..

People know they won't be stopped and questioned/ fined so it's business as usual.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 21, 2020, 09:54:31 AM
People arriving in Germany are being held at the airport.
As I said yesterday, the traffic here is as heavy as ever. Local supermarkets are back under tight regulations as they were in April, though. That might help.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 21, 2020, 11:19:17 AM
"France's ban on UK transport came as surprise, says Grant Shapps"

Everything comes as a surprise to these numpties.
What were the French supposed to do?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/france-ban-uk-transport-surprise-says-grant-shapps-covid
 
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 21, 2020, 01:49:37 PM
Scotland.s Chief Constable was on the daily update and the journalists kept pressurising him to give details of the plans to stop and check cars. Most he would say is that the usual "drink-drive" parameters would be used such as moving traffic offences and erratic driving, but also cars with lots of passengers and cars loaded with luggage. He said that something like 90 fixed penalty notices had been issued since the travel restrictions came into force. He also said he "expects" the roads in Scotland to be "quiet".
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 21, 2020, 02:22:01 PM
Today's briefing for those in Scotland who missed it or those in rUK interested in a briefing without the histrionics.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-55393931

It's rolling coverage. Start at bottom of page or rather on P2 at 12.15
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on December 21, 2020, 02:57:07 PM
Wouldn’t it make sense and simplify things for the planet if we just banned all outgoing flights ourselves, instead of waiting for all 200+ countries to ban us from going there. We are in QUARANTINE. London is in QUARANTINE. Travel anywhere should be banned. What the chuff is going on in people’s minds?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: BIGFELLAH on December 21, 2020, 03:12:10 PM
Wouldn’t it make sense and simplify things for the planet if we just banned all outgoing flights ourselves, instead of waiting for all 200+ countries to ban us from going there. We are in QUARANTINE. London is in QUARANTINE. Travel anywhere should be banned. What the chuff is going on in people’s minds?

Richard,
 Right on the button I totally agree it would make absolute sense. "Oh but will this include Dinghy's"
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 21, 2020, 03:36:21 PM
Parts of Kent and Essex now have their own higher category and shaded black:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 21, 2020, 03:56:09 PM
Wouldn’t it make sense and simplify things for the planet if we just banned all outgoing flights ourselves, instead of waiting for all 200+ countries to ban us from going there. We are in QUARANTINE. London is in QUARANTINE. Travel anywhere should be banned. What the chuff is going on in people’s minds?

You are trampling on people's rights.. the right to infect others as laid out in the Human Rights Act.

Besides: stopping flights would be logical.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 21, 2020, 04:15:56 PM
Wouldn’t it make sense and simplify things for the planet if we just banned all outgoing flights ourselves, instead of waiting for all 200+ countries to ban us from going there. We are in QUARANTINE. London is in QUARANTINE. Travel anywhere should be banned. What the chuff is going on in people’s minds?
Should have been done on Saturday (or before if they knew about it)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 21, 2020, 04:18:09 PM
Wouldn’t it make sense and simplify things for the planet if we just banned all outgoing flights ourselves, instead of waiting for all 200+ countries to ban us from going there. We are in QUARANTINE. London is in QUARANTINE. Travel anywhere should be banned. What the chuff is going on in people’s minds?

You are trampling on people's rights.. the right to infect others as laid out in the Human Rights Act.

Besides: stopping flights would be logical.

I take it your tongue is in your cheek.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 21, 2020, 04:42:41 PM
Wouldn’t it make sense and simplify things for the planet if we just banned all outgoing flights ourselves, instead of waiting for all 200+ countries to ban us from going there. We are in QUARANTINE. London is in QUARANTINE. Travel anywhere should be banned. What the chuff is going on in people’s minds?

You are trampling on people's rights.. the right to infect others as laid out in the Human Rights Act.

Besides: stopping flights would be logical.

I take it your tongue is in your cheek.

Just a little.

In reality if you look at London's infection rate - which is much higher than anywhere else in the UK -  London should have been locked down two weeks ago.

As Boris procrastinated in March and delayed lockdown by 2 weeks, he has learned form his mistake and delayed two weeks - again. Err not.

There are words to describe that kind of action. Most are unprintable.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 21, 2020, 04:43:57 PM
Switzerland has applied retroactive quarantine on anyone who arrived from the UK since Dec 14th. More than 60 flights from the UK — bringing an estimated 10,000 tourists —landed at the Geneva airport this weekend before the ban was introduced. I hope they enjoy their skiing holiday in quarantine. Mind you, not much chance of broken bones.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 21, 2020, 04:46:08 PM
As Boris procrastinated in March and delayed lockdown by 2 weeks, he has learned form his mistake and delayed two weeks - again. Err not.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. These words are usually credited to the acclaimed genius Albert Einstein.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 21, 2020, 04:47:24 PM
"No 10 urged people to not panic-buy amid warnings of shortages of some food items in supermarkets, saying the UK had “resilient supply chains” for food."              Bog roll panic time again

"Asked if MPs could be recalled, the spokesman said this would only be done to ratify any Brexit deal: “If we need to recall parliament for the purposes of Brexit, we will.”      Must get the priorities right

"Asked why the tier 4 measures were not being pushed out across England, the spokesman indicated the prime minister felt enough was being done to prevent the spread of the Covid variant." Might have prevented exodus for London to other parts of UK and numbers in SE England were increasing during lockdown

“I would point to the fact that we’ve been clear that people shouldn’t be travelling out of tier 4 areas, and I would point to the changes that we have made in terms of tier 4,” he said. “We’re being clear that people should remain at home and limit human interaction.”        Has he not seen the pictures on the news?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/uk-in-covid-freight-ban-talks-with-france-as-cobra-set-to-meet-over-crisis

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 21, 2020, 06:08:12 PM
Remember the fuss last week about pupil testing in schools? Listening to the PM this evening, he suggests - with no great enthusiasm - we shall do it if we can. Another U turn  in the making?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 21, 2020, 10:59:19 PM
Remember the fuss last week about pupil testing in schools? Listening to the PM this evening, he suggests - with no great enthusiasm - we shall do it if we can. Another U turn  in the making?
Hopefully he'll do another U turn and come into line with the devolved nations and put the rest of England into tier 4 restrictions on Boxing day before the number of cases becomes overwhelming.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/21/calls-for-national-lockdown-in-england-to-curb-spread-of-new-covid-strain

"“The lesson I think you have to learn about this virus … is that it’s important to get ahead of it in terms of actions,” Sir Patrick Vallance told a Downing Street press conference alongside Johnson. “I think it is likely that this will grow in numbers of the variant across the country, and I think it’s likely therefore that measures will need to be increased in some places in due course, not reduced.”
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 22, 2020, 05:59:00 AM
I bet when this variant is detected abroad we will be blamed even though it may happen naturally globally.

As a virologist said yesterday, we have the second best genome labs in the world, behind Denmark, so we have detected it first and taken the correct route of informing the WHO
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 22, 2020, 08:13:04 AM
I bet when this variant is detected abroad we will be blamed even though it may happen naturally globally.

As a virologist said yesterday, we have the second best genome labs in the world, behind Denmark, so we have detected it first and taken the correct route of informing the WHO
Other similar variants have already been found abroad.
There should be no "them" and "us".
The whole world is affected.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 22, 2020, 09:27:45 AM
It has been found as far off as Australia, but they are saying it vas brought by a visitor from the UK.
There is also a similar but unrelated strain found in South Africa.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinS on December 22, 2020, 09:31:51 AM
Maybe I am wrong but I still can't help but blame the deviants who introduced it to mankind in the first place.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 22, 2020, 09:36:41 AM
Why "deviants"?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinS on December 22, 2020, 10:03:29 AM
I can't accept their standard of behaviour towards the treatment of animals.  And that, in my opinion, is where the pandemic originated.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 22, 2020, 10:41:41 AM
I can't accept their standard of behaviour towards the treatment of animals.  And that, in my opinion, is where the pandemic originated.
You can blame mankind's greed in general for loss of animal habitat.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 22, 2020, 10:44:58 AM
I can't accept their standard of behaviour towards the treatment of animals.  And that, in my opinion, is where the pandemic originated.

The west is hardly blameless on that score with our farming methods. Where do you think H1N1 and H5N1 originated?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on December 22, 2020, 11:05:53 AM
I can't accept their standard of behaviour towards the treatment of animals.  And that, in my opinion, is where the pandemic originated.

I agree

The Chinese have a horrific attitude to animals,  they believe the meat tastes better if the animals have been tortured ( maybe with a blowtorch ) before they die.  Their 'wet markets' contain animals from all over the world, many of them critically endangered like the Pangolin ( because the Chinese buy tons of Pangolin scales for their 'medicine' ) from Africa and Asia, the animals are kept in small cages and sold live to be ill treated and eaten by anyone with the money to buy them.  It is the Chinese 'relationship' with using various wild animals for food, and keeping animals like pigs and chickens in their houses that have resulted in many different diseases jumping the 'species gap' into humans. China is a pretty backward and oppressive country with a veneer of civilisation - just like their communism with a veneer of capitalism.

Pretty much every virus that has jumped the species gap has done it in Southeast Asia, due to proximity of animals to humans, and maybe the SARS-CoV-2 did it due to lax lab procedure in Wuhan,  or someone from the lab selling live animals or their meat used to test bat viruses to local wet market - nice little earner on the side.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinS on December 22, 2020, 11:29:11 AM
I can't accept their standard of behaviour towards the treatment of animals.  And that, in my opinion, is where the pandemic originated.

I agree

The Chinese have a horrific attitude to animals,  they believe the meat tastes better if the animals have been tortured ( maybe with a blowtorch ) before they die.  Their 'wet markets' contain animals from all over the world, many of them critically endangered like the Pangolin ( because the Chinese buy tons of Pangolin scales for their 'medicine' ) from Africa and Asia, the animals are kept in small cages and sold live to be ill treated and eaten by anyone with the money to buy them.  It is the Chinese 'relationship' with using various wild animals for food, and keeping animals like pigs and chickens in their houses that have resulted in many different diseases jumping the 'species gap' into humans. China is a pretty backward and oppressive country with a veneer of civilisation - just like their communism with a veneer of capitalism.

Pretty much every virus that has jumped the species gap has done it in Southeast Asia, due to proximity of animals to humans, and maybe the SARS-CoV-2 did it due to lax lab procedure in Wuhan,  or someone from the lab selling live animals or their meat used to test bat viruses to local wet market - nice little earner on the side.

Thank you Culzean. I'm glad you had the balls to say that. My thoughts to the letter.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 22, 2020, 12:06:45 PM
BSE and Mad Cow Disease spring to mind.

We are hardly a beacon of virtue.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 22, 2020, 12:41:10 PM
The Chinese have a horrific attitude to animals

I don't dispute that, there are many practices that any decent human being would find abhorrent, although to single China out for criticism is a tad disingenuous. These sorts of practices are widespread in SE Asia, the torture of animals before slaughter is something more often attributed to other countries' traditions... and what about the bush meat trade in African countries?

What I was saying is that we are hardly innocent in the west, and western farming practices have been the origin of many serious disease outbreaks over the past century.

It is the Chinese 'relationship' with using various wild animals for food, and keeping animals like pigs and chickens in their houses that have resulted in many different diseases jumping the 'species gap' into humans.

It's not that long ago that these sorts of practices were widespread in rural UK - eating wild caught meat and keeping poultry under the kitchen table. Most of the rural Chinese population are very poor, and yes, backwards.

Pretty much every virus that has jumped the species gap has done it in Southeast Asia, due to proximity of animals to humans

That's simply not true. Outbreaks of avian and swine flu originating in western farming have killed millions of human beings worldwide, Spanish flu killed an estimated 50m people and was traced back to a poultry farm in the US.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinS on December 22, 2020, 01:43:56 PM
We will just have to agree to disagree on this.  I could come back with counterclaims but there is little point in dragging up the past century.

We now need to look forwards to fixing this and at the end of the day attempt to get worldwide practices in place to try and avoid it happening again.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 22, 2020, 02:25:14 PM
We will just have to agree to disagree on this.  I could come back with counterclaims but there is little point in dragging up the past century.

I'm sure you could, but 50m deaths from H1N1 will take some trumping.

Please don't think that I disagree with your basic point about the practices employed in many SE Asian countries, many of them are truly hideous. However, I think it's wrong to single out China, just because that is where this virus very likely originated, and the ease with which you can find examples of their irreverence for animal life. We are all responsible of the abuse of farmed and wild animals to some extent, it's just that the majority living in the west are detached from it - on the whole, we only have to deal with cling-wrapped trays of food ingredients.

My daughter is vegetarian for health reasons, and as I point out to her, even arable farming in the UK has come at a savage cost to wildlife.

We now need to look forwards to fixing this and at the end of the day attempt to get worldwide practices in place to try and avoid it happening again.

I'm afraid it will happen again. In fact, it's happening here right now - we are currently having to confine poultry due to an outbreak of bird flu here in UK farmed poultry... and ours don't like it!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinS on December 22, 2020, 02:38:55 PM
I'm sure you could, but 50m deaths from H1N1 will take some trumping.
Ok, I'm happy to add Mexico to the list ;)
Please don't think that I disagree with your basic point about the practices employed in many SE Asian countries, many of them are truly hideous. However, I think it's wrong to single out China
My beef is not with the Chinese people but the Chinese government.  If they were more open about the state of things, i'm sure that myself, Donald Trump and millions of others would have a more sympathetic view of them.

And I know it will happen again but that shouldn't stop our governments from trying.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 22, 2020, 03:02:52 PM
The tone of Nicola Sturgeon's update today was very serious.
There is a need to step up restrictions in the light of new strain of virus at least until more is learned about new strain.
Level 4 – the strictest of Scotland’s five tier system of Covid controls and which all of mainland Scotland will enter from Boxing Day – will now include:
     guidance to stay as local as possible and stay at home as much as possible, which may be put in law in the       coming days.
    closure of homeware and garden centres
    the “strong advice” remains not to meet indoors at all on Christmas Day.
The first minister said failing to take strong action quickly would see "another period of exponential growth" of the virus in the new year.
She said: "This is preventative action, because we see a train coming rapidly down the track at us and we're trying to get out of its way."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55414617


It would surely be sensible for the rest of the UK where prevalence of the virus is higher to adopt similar measures.



Edit added quote and changed link. 
Sorry I see I have interruted thread
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 22, 2020, 03:07:37 PM
Ok, I'm happy to add Mexico to the list ;)

Mexico? What did the poor Mexicans do wrong?

The US sent the virus to Mexico aboard an oil tanker.

My beef is not with the Chinese people but the Chinese government.

That's fair enough. It just saddens me when people are openly abused in the streets because they happen to look 'oriental', fueled largely by all the anti-China rhetoric.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinS on December 22, 2020, 03:25:53 PM
My beef is not with the Chinese people but the Chinese government.

That's fair enough. It just saddens me when people are openly abused in the streets because they happen to look 'oriental', fueled largely by all the anti-China rhetoric.

Me too
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on December 22, 2020, 05:20:16 PM
The Chinese have a horrific attitude to animals,  they believe the meat tastes better if the animals have been tortured ( maybe with a blowtorch ) before they die.

 :-[ There are some things I wish I didn't know. I had a google, and this is a real thing. I'm speechless.

We kept chickens for a few years, and ever since I've been pretty much vegetarian. I still want my fortnightly bangers, but thats it. After having kept animals, I found that I formed a real bond with them. Yes, even chickens! We all like to eat different stuff, and that's fine, but animal welfare is so important to me. If an animal is to be eaten, at lease let if have had a decent life. The though that abusing an animal makes it tastier? I mean, what the ????

Sorry, its a covid thread. In our local Tesco, panic buying has not happened....yet. Not sure of the rest of the country.

I think we need a full lockdown WEF 24/12/2020. The thought of the hight streets being full of people shopping on Boxing Day makes me very apprehensive about the R rate come 2021.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 22, 2020, 06:46:08 PM

I think we need a full lockdown WEF 24/12/2020. The thought of the hight streets being full of people shopping on Boxing Day makes me very apprehensive about the R rate come 2021.

Yep. I think Boris has dropped the country in the sh1t again.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 22, 2020, 07:20:14 PM
I can't see a review being held off until 30th December if those numbers carry on like that.

Cases doubled in 7 days.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/22/covid-infections-eden-cumbria-new-strain

Quote
There are strong indications the new hyper-infective variant of Covid-19 has reached Cumbria, according to the county’s director of public health. Infections in the district of Eden, which is only 20 miles from the Scottish border, have “skyrocketed”, according to Colin Cox, the director of public health.

He said he suspected the new variant was involved, because of the “very, very high hit rate”. Eden, which includes the market town of Penrith, had experienced workplace outbreaks where 50% of staff had been infected, “despite having good Covid controls in place”, he said.

Scary stuff. How can they reopen schools on the back of that?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 22, 2020, 07:37:20 PM
I can't see a review being held off until 30th December if those numbers carry on like that.

Cases doubled in 7 days.
Yes it's frightening.
This week's exponential increase in cases is baked in.
 It's Christmas week -- holidays, shopping, drinking, parties
The B word coming up.
Lorries parked all over SE England.
It's a perfect sh1tstorm.

At least in Scotland  we're better organized
Daily updates
weekly reviews
there's a bit more leeway in terms of numbers 
we have restricted travel  (didn't stop the Marquis of Bute but he got picked up)
all mainland goes into level 4 on Boxing Day
and delayed school openings are planned

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/22/uk-government-blamed-covid-19-mutation-occur
https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/uk-should-follow-scotlands-harsh-covid-lockdown-edinburgh-university-expert-warns-3074096

Last edit Added Devi Sridhar link
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 22, 2020, 08:57:44 PM
Boris seems to be wanting to please everybody, and all he is doing is putting everybody at risk. This business of kowtowing to mayors and authority leaders has made his life doubly difficult. He needs to grow a pair.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on December 23, 2020, 09:30:07 AM
Boris seems to be wanting to please everybody, and all he is doing is putting everybody at risk. This business of kowtowing to mayors and authority leaders has made his life doubly difficult. He needs to grow a pair.

I think that sums him up - he wants to be liked too much and you can see that in the delay of necessary measures. The initial lockdown in March should have been imposed earlier for sure.

Getting snippets that Rishi Sunak is the one resisting additional restrictions.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 23, 2020, 09:49:36 AM
He is the one who has to manage the consequences of more restrictions so I can understand that position. He also wants to please the Tory Grandees as he has his eyes on the prize.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 23, 2020, 03:45:54 PM
Hancock's Half hour
South of England into tier 4 on Boxing day.
North of England . Let it rip and we'll sort it out in the New Year.
Another opportunity to act in a timely fashion lost.
The initial lockdown in March should have been imposed earlier for sure.

Absolutely, but in a way that is the most understandable of his mistakes in that it was the first one.
What is worse is that he hasn't learned from it and keeps making similar mistakes.
As Jocko said -the definition of insanity - repeating the same action and expecting a different result.
Edit reply to Pete's post
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 23, 2020, 08:33:48 PM
I see no ships
 8)


Test and trace reduces working hours over Christmas as England infections spike
Workers for the service, who advise positive patients and identify anyone they have been in contact with who is at risk of infection, normally work from 8am to 8.30pm.

But on Christmas Eve workers will finish at 5pm and 4pm on Christmas Day followed by 6pm on other days and 5pm on New Year’s Eve.

One worker said the move was “crazy” given the rise in cases.

They said there were already 18 unfilled shifts on Christmas Eve and 15 vacant shifts on Christmas Day, saying: “Add in reduced hours of service, with 37,000 cases on Tuesday, it is ludicrous.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-test-and-trace-christmas-infections-b1778321.html
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 24, 2020, 05:13:57 AM
Why couldn't they have built the Covid app to auto inform you as a stage 1?

Maybe it was built by the same set of clowns who charged £bns for an Excel spreadsheet.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 24, 2020, 06:11:30 AM
Why couldn't they have built the Covid app to auto inform you as a stage 1?
I was under the belief it did as well as a person calling to ensure you got and understood the message.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 24, 2020, 06:43:58 AM
It may well do. Not having RTFM and not having got 'caught' I don't know.


Just been on the news that this SA variant affects the young as severely as the old. Wonder if that is just a ploy to get the young to behave ?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 24, 2020, 08:12:10 AM
The 1019-20 Spanish flu epidemic started killing the young first. By the time the second wave arrived it started killing the older people as it mutated.
BTW the second wave - the one we are currently in - killed the majority of people in the US Spanish flue epidemic.

The third wave killed least but was spread out over a year (the first two lasted 3 to 5 months each)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Derkie54 on December 24, 2020, 08:56:12 AM
Lots to be concerned about... but Merry Christmas to you all anyway and let's hope 2021 becomes a Better year for us all.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 24, 2020, 09:00:56 AM
Lots to be concerned about... but Merry Christmas to you all anyway and let's hope 2021 becomes a Better year for us all.

I wholeheartedly agree, and Merry Christmas.

It's hard to imagine that 2021 could be any worse, 2020 has been pretty crummy all round...
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 24, 2020, 09:02:29 AM
Just been on the news that this SA variant affects the young as severely as the old. Wonder if that is just a ploy to get the young to behave ?

Now are they going to reopen schools January?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 24, 2020, 02:34:20 PM

Just been on the news that this SA variant affects the young as severely as the old.

Bad news for many African countries where the median age is less than 20.


Now are they going to reopen schools January?

They intend to open schools but it is not unknown for this government to perform U turns and they may well be overtaken by events.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/23/english-regions-should-go-into-covid-tier-4-now-scientists-say
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 24, 2020, 02:51:39 PM
I hear they had to place Cornwall into a higher tier because a load of pirates landed on the beaches and the Arrr rate went up.


I'll get my coat .......
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on December 24, 2020, 05:30:11 PM
Here in Suffolk we have Tier 4 coming 26/12/2020. For the best, but oh my, we have had a very unsual year.

My punt, mid June 2021, most folk vaccinated and life returning to something nearing normal. Fingers crossed!  :D
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on December 24, 2020, 05:59:03 PM
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/



Hope none of you get it. Exponential growth.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 24, 2020, 07:20:28 PM
In the local news, a car crashed nearby, and when the police got to it, there was no sign of the two occupants. Concerned the may have been wandering around injured they called the helicopter in. They eventually found them. The outcome was fixed penalty notices under the Coronavirus regs! Take it they must have crossed the "State line" without a valid reason!!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 29, 2020, 03:47:25 PM
Just been on the news that this SA variant affects the young as severely as the old. Wonder if that is just a ploy to get the young to behave ?

Now are they going to reopen schools January?
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/dec/29/full-reopening-of-secondary-schools-in-england-could-be-delayed

As usual the government has put off making a decision until it is forced to rather than listening to medics and scientists.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/29/tier-5-england-faces-possible-new-covid-restrictions-source-says

Edit Latest update is that Hancock is just going to tinker around the edges again
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/dec/29/coronavirus-live-news-more-countries-alert-suspected-cases-new-uk-covid-variant?page=with:block-5feb515f8f08d08389ae593e#block-5feb515f8f08d08389ae593e
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on December 29, 2020, 04:36:19 PM
I understand schools not restarting. I have to say though, it doesn't help the children at all. They have only just got back in to the routine of classes and homework with the last term. If they dont return until mid January, or possibly later, it will be in essence the same as having another summer break. Not good for their learning.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 29, 2020, 07:02:50 PM
I don't mind them being at home, but as I have said right from the beginning, there should be a proper system put in place for remote learning. As things stand now, my eldest will be remote learning next week, followed by attendance the week after, and the youngest will get another weeks holiday, followed by remote learning for who knows how long.

They have now had 9 months to organise a national framework of access to remote learning, and as far as I can see, it is still being left to the schools to organise. It's not good enough.

It was already getting out of hand at our school before Christmas, with whole teaching departments isolating and even the onsite kitchens shut down - this is a school with 1600+ pupils. Nationally, 25% of students were already at home, either ill or isolating because of contact, and as high as 50% in some areas.

Ideally yes, they should be at school, but this new B-117 strain is going to go through schools like a dose of salts.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 29, 2020, 07:13:05 PM
Latest talk here is of Shetland going into tier 4 (currently 3). Up until Boxing Day, they were tier 1. The virus is out of hand, and once the Christmas Day infections kick in, things will worsen.
Hogmanay in Scotland is traditionally heavy drinking, parties moving from house to house, all the ladies getting kissed (it's a perverts dream), and general mass mixing between households. The thought of The Bells 2021 scares me.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 29, 2020, 07:52:25 PM
Latest talk here is of Shetland going into tier 4 (currently 3). Up until Boxing Day, they were tier 1. The virus is out of hand, and once the Christmas Day infections kick in, things will worsen.
Hogmanay in Scotland is traditionally heavy drinking, parties moving from house to house, all the ladies getting kissed (it's a perverts dream), and general mass mixing between households. The thought of The Bells 2021 scares me.

I hope not this year. The NHS is near breaking point.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-new-years-eve-doctors-nhs-b1779884.html
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 29, 2020, 08:07:23 PM
Just been watching on telly, 20 ambulances parked up outside one A&E, all with patients in.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 30, 2020, 06:10:22 AM
I despair when I saw the news about hundreds of Londoners trying to drive to the Brecon Beacons for a day out, breaking tier exit laws. What is it with some people, are they stupid ?

As they were turned around they should all have been given the £200 fixed penalty so if they then tried another route that would be £600 in total.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 30, 2020, 07:01:23 AM
What is it with some people, are they stupid?
Unfortunately a fair proportion are. And selfish with it. As if the Covid wasn't enough, there was snow and sub-zero conditions forecast for Pen y Fan.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on December 30, 2020, 07:16:28 AM
Oxo approved, the fight back begins stage 2
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 30, 2020, 09:09:52 AM
That's brilliant news this morning. They are talking about starting vaccination from Monday.

More good news. My wife went into her work this morning and was told to report at 09:30 for her Pfizer jab.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 30, 2020, 09:49:33 AM
That's brilliant news this morning. They are talking about starting vaccination from Monday.

More good news. My wife went into her work this morning and was told to report at 09:30 for her Pfizer jab.


That is good news. You next!  8)

I was reading a conversation between a group of fruitcakes on twitter yesterday who think that the vaccinations are all faked and the 90 year old woman on telly that had the first vaccination was an actress.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on December 30, 2020, 10:11:30 AM
I don't mind them being at home, but as I have said right from the beginning, there should be a proper system put in place for remote learning. As things stand now, my eldest will be remote learning next week, followed by attendance the week after, and the youngest will get another weeks holiday, followed by remote learning for who knows how long.

They have now had 9 months to organise a national framework of access to remote learning, and as far as I can see, it is still being left to the schools to organise. It's not good enough.

It was already getting out of hand at our school before Christmas, with whole teaching departments isolating and even the onsite kitchens shut down - this is a school with 1600+ pupils. Nationally, 25% of students were already at home, either ill or isolating because of contact, and as high as 50% in some areas.

Ideally yes, they should be at school, but this new B-117 strain is going to go through schools like a dose of salts.

I agree, there should be a fixed framework for online learning. Far too adhoc so far. My lad is doing his A levels, so has many years of schooling behind him and understands why he needs to work at home and the unique situation covid causes. We are having to press to get him work to do though.  :(

At primary age however, it is a different ball game altogether. The % of their academic careers that has been distrupted is larger and it will have an impact in the coming couple of years. I dont envy the teachers at all. It's hard enough establishing a routine and learning with some as it is, the lengthy breaks will make it especialy hard.

The county to my south, Essex, has declared a 'major incident' due to covid and demand.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/30/major-incident-declared-in-essex-as-covid-threatens-to-overwhelm-health-services (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/30/major-incident-declared-in-essex-as-covid-threatens-to-overwhelm-health-services)

Fingers crossed, even the irresponsible will wake up and smell the coffee, and NOT behave recklessly on New Years Eve.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on December 30, 2020, 10:13:46 AM
I despair when I saw the news about hundreds of Londoners trying to drive to the Brecon Beacons for a day out, breaking tier exit laws. What is it with some people, are they stupid ?

As they were turned around they should all have been given the £200 fixed penalty so if they then tried another route that would be £600 in total.

For pitys sake. What the <expletive> is wrong with people? They should have been given a fine, and perhaps ?? hrs community service.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 30, 2020, 11:12:24 AM
Detention. A friend of mine was in Singapore and inadvertently jay walked. A cop nabbed her, she was in court 10 minutes later, fined a small amount, but then had to sit in a crowded room until end of business at 6pm.
The long sit was the worst part of the whole affair. Something like that here might work.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 30, 2020, 05:48:33 PM
Detention. A friend of mine was in Singapore and inadvertently jay walked. A cop nabbed her, she was in court 10 minutes later, fined a small amount, but then had to sit in a crowded room until end of business at 6pm.
The long sit was the worst part of the whole affair. Something like that here might work.

Imagine the protests.

There are already demonstrations in the centre of London every weekend about putting a bit of cloth over your mouth.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 30, 2020, 07:00:17 PM
My wife had her Pfizer vaccine this morning and so far no ill effects other than a bit of a sore arm. She said the vaccination was a bit nippy. She has been given an appointment in four weeks for the second part, but I pointed out that she may be knocked back. The JCVI has decided today that there can be a twelve-week delay between the first and second part, allowing far more people to get the first part. Seemingly the initial vaccination gives most of the protection and the second mops up the rest. This way, more good can be done quicker.           
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 30, 2020, 07:47:53 PM
Latest talk here is of Shetland going into tier 4 (currently 3). Up until Boxing Day, they were tier 1. The virus is out of hand, and once the Christmas Day infections kick in, things will worsen.
Hogmanay in Scotland is traditionally heavy drinking, parties moving from house to house, all the ladies getting kissed (it's a perverts dream), and general mass mixing between households. The thought of The Bells 2021 scares me.
Allez les gendarmes. :o
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/dec/30/coronavirus-live-news-uk-approves-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-updates?page=with:block-5fecc2198f08d0452b08822c#block-5fecc2198f08d0452b08822c
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 30, 2020, 09:26:26 PM
My wife had her Pfizer vaccine this morning and so far no ill effects other than a bit of a sore arm. She said the vaccination was a bit nippy. She has been given an appointment in four weeks for the second part, but I pointed out that she may be knocked back. The JCVI has decided today that there can be a twelve-week delay between the first and second part, allowing far more people to get the first part. Seemingly the initial vaccination gives most of the protection and the second mops up the rest. This way, more good can be done quicker.         

My Mum had no ill effects whatsoever apart from the sore arm, but Dad had the fatigue, joint aches, headache, etc. come on over the following days.

They both still have their appointments for the second jab exactly 21 days from the first one, given to them on the day of the first jab, complete with a lecture on the importance of turning up for the second dose. Does that up-to twelve week delay apply to all the jabs, or just the AZ one they have been discussing today?

We are in (England) Tier 4 from tomorrow BTW, Mum & Dad remain in tier 3.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 30, 2020, 09:30:45 PM
Allez les gendarmes. :o
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/dec/30/coronavirus-live-news-uk-approves-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-updates?page=with:block-5fecc2198f08d0452b08822c#block-5fecc2198f08d0452b08822c

Do you think that will happen here? I see chaos ensuing.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 30, 2020, 09:56:21 PM
Allez les gendarmes. :o
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/dec/30/coronavirus-live-news-uk-approves-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-updates?page=with:block-5fecc2198f08d0452b08822c#block-5fecc2198f08d0452b08822c

Do you think that will happen here? I see chaos ensuing.
I hope not.
Have we still got 100,000 police? (I looked it up about 120,000)
Didn't work too well in France last year either
"On New Year’s Eve last year a record 1,457 cars were burned across France, a 13% increase on the previous year."

Better just follow Nicola Sturgeon's advice in the next article.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 30, 2020, 10:47:09 PM
My wife had her Pfizer vaccine this morning and so far no ill effects other than a bit of a sore arm. She said the vaccination was a bit nippy. She has been given an appointment in four weeks for the second part, but I pointed out that she may be knocked back. The JCVI has decided today that there can be a twelve-week delay between the first and second part, allowing far more people to get the first part. Seemingly the initial vaccination gives most of the protection and the second mops up the rest. This way, more good can be done quicker.         

Does that up-to twelve week delay apply to all the jabs, or just the AZ one they have been discussing today?

I just found the answer to this just now - it only applies to the AZ vaccine, the Pfizer vaccine requires both jabs.

Quote
Pfizer/BioNTech said that their vaccine was not designed to be used in two shots 12 weeks apart. In a statement, the firms said there was no evidence the first shot continued to work beyond three weeks.

“Data from the phase 3 study demonstrated that, although partial protection from the vaccine appears to begin as early as 12 days after the first dose, two doses of the vaccine are required to provide the maximum protection against the disease, a vaccine efficacy of 95%. There are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days,” they said.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/30/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-approved-by-uk-regulator
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 30, 2020, 11:09:20 PM
I just found the answer to this just now - it only applies to the AZ vaccine, the Pfizer vaccine requires both jabs.
From the JVCI publication today:

The JCVI advises that vaccinating more people with the first dose is prioritised above offering others their second dose, to maximise benefits from the vaccination programme in the short term.

For the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the second vaccine dose can be offered between 3 to 12 weeks after the first dose. For the AstraZeneca vaccine, the second dose can be offered 4 to 12 weeks after the first dose.


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi-issues-advice-on-the-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi-issues-advice-on-the-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 30, 2020, 11:13:40 PM


Does that up-to twelve week delay apply to all the jabs, or just the AZ one they have been discussing today?

I just found the answer to this just now - it only applies to the AZ vaccine, the Pfizer vaccine requires both jabs.

Quote
Pfizer/BioNTech said that their vaccine was not designed to be used in two shots 12 weeks apart. In a statement, the firms said there was no evidence the first shot continued to work beyond three weeks.

“Data from the phase 3 study demonstrated that, although partial protection from the vaccine appears to begin as early as 12 days after the first dose, two doses of the vaccine are required to provide the maximum protection against the disease, a vaccine efficacy of 95%. There are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days,” they said.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/30/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-approved-by-uk-regulator
[/quote]
That contradicts what is stated in the Guardian article

"But the MHRA and the government’s advisory Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisation delivered a surprise by announcing approval of a regime that was not trialled. Both the Oxford vaccine and the Pfizer/BioNTech jab which is already in use will be given to people as one shot, followed by another up to 12 weeks later, in order to extend some protection to as many people as possible as quickly as possible."

Edit Jocko just beat me to it

In fact on re-reading your link the Guardian article contradicts itself.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 30, 2020, 11:23:17 PM
Quote from: sparky Paul
Does that up-to twelve week delay apply to all the jabs, or just the AZ one they have been discussing today?

I just found the answer to this just now - it only applies to the AZ vaccine, the Pfizer vaccine requires both jabs.

Quote
Pfizer/BioNTech said that their vaccine was not designed to be used in two shots 12 weeks apart. In a statement, the firms said there was no evidence the first shot continued to work beyond three weeks.

“Data from the phase 3 study demonstrated that, although partial protection from the vaccine appears to begin as early as 12 days after the first dose, two doses of the vaccine are required to provide the maximum protection against the disease, a vaccine efficacy of 95%. There are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days,” they said.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/30/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-approved-by-uk-regulator
That contradicts what is stated in the Guardian article

"But the MHRA and the government’s advisory Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisation delivered a surprise by announcing approval of a regime that was not trialled. Both the Oxford vaccine and the Pfizer/BioNTech jab which is already in use will be given to people as one shot, followed by another up to 12 weeks later, in order to extend some protection to as many people as possible as quickly as possible."

Edit Jocko just beat me to it

In fact on re-reading your link the Guardian article contradicts itself.


The bit I posted from the same article is not a contradiction, that is Pfizer's advice.

They do not agree with the information issued by the JCVI.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 30, 2020, 11:42:47 PM

The bit I posted from the same article is not a contradiction, that is Pfizer's advice.

They do not agree with the information issued by the JCVI.

So the MHRA and JCVI seem to have issued a statement that is not in accordance with Pfizer/BioNtech trials.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 30, 2020, 11:50:30 PM
So the MHRA and JCVI seem to have issued a statement that is not in accordance with Pfizer/BioNtech trials.

It appears that way.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 31, 2020, 07:04:41 AM
The MHRA and the JCVI have access to all Pfizers findings and research and appear to have come to a different conclusion to Pfizer. I am sure things will clear up in the next few days. I am pretty certain the journos will have spotted this anomaly as well as us. I just hope Madge gets her second shot at the date and time she was given yesterday, four weeks after the first.
This morning her only side effect, so far, is a bit of discomfort at the site of the injection.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on December 31, 2020, 09:54:05 AM
The information I have seen for the 12 week gap is about the Oxford vaccine,  didn't see a mention of Pfizer.  Oxford have advised that a decent amount of immunity is gained 20 days after first shot, and the second shot is for longer term immunity.  Oxford stated that during trials nobody was ill enough to need hospital after just the first shot,  and to enbable the maximum number of people to be treated with available doses use the 12 week regime.  The Oxford one is really 'the vaccine for the world' a spokesman said Oxford could easily have made an mRNA vaccine but the delicacy / fragility of that type vaccine was well known and the need to keep it at -70C effectively ruled out its widespread distribution to most countries in the world, what they said was you don't have to go to the Oxford vaccine ( meaning dedicated immunisation centres that involve people traveling distances - which is obviously not a good idea during a pandemic) the vaccine will come to you...   You should get the vaccine from your doctor or a local health centre just like the annual flu jab.  I would be happy to get the Oxford jab,  but the Pfizer - thanks but no thanks.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 31, 2020, 10:11:53 AM
I would be happy to get the Oxford jab,  but the Pfizer - thanks but no thanks.

Why not, if it's proven to be more effective?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on December 31, 2020, 10:24:48 AM
The information I have seen for the 12 week gap is about the Oxford vaccine,  didn't see a mention of Pfizer.  Oxford
From the JCVI publication of 30/12/20.

For the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the second vaccine dose can be offered between 3 to 12 weeks after the first dose. For the AstraZeneca vaccine, the second dose can be offered 4 to 12 weeks after the first dose.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi-issues-advice-on-the-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi-issues-advice-on-the-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine)

As  posted yesterday.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 31, 2020, 12:24:46 PM
The controversy rolls on...

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/31/covid-vaccine-uk-doctors-criticise-rescheduling-of-second-doses
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on December 31, 2020, 01:24:08 PM
I would be happy to get the Oxford jab,  but the Pfizer - thanks but no thanks.

This strikes me as a poor attitude. Both vaccines (and any future ones that are available) have been declared safe by the MHRA, and I doubt that you know better. I don’t think anyone is going to know which vaccine they’re getting. The only choice you get is whether to accept the invitation to be vaccinated. If you turn up, then interrogate the nurse about which one it is, and decline at that point, then you’ve wasted everyone’s time and taken an opportunity from someone who needs it. Your choice is whether to be vaccinated or not, and not which one you’re prepared to have.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on December 31, 2020, 02:05:46 PM
Well said Colin. I'll take either. I just can't wait to be called up.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on December 31, 2020, 02:51:09 PM
I would be happy to get the Oxford jab,  but the Pfizer - thanks but no thanks.

This strikes me as a poor attitude. Both vaccines (and any future ones that are available) have been declared safe by the MHRA, and I doubt that you know better. I don’t think anyone is going to know which vaccine they’re getting. The only choice you get is whether to accept the invitation to be vaccinated. If you turn up, then interrogate the nurse about which one it is, and decline at that point, then you’ve wasted everyone’s time and taken an opportunity from someone who needs it. Your choice is whether to be vaccinated or not, and not which one you’re prepared to have.

The mRNA vaccine  has been around for 30 years and in that time has never been approved for use on humans for anything - there are major concerns about its hijacking the production  mechanisms in our cells to produce proteins.  The Oxford vaccine works in a different way, just the way virus itself makes the body produce antibodies.  My local GP or health centre is unlikely to offer me the Pfizer jab anyway,  I would have to go to vaccination centre.   That was my point about you having to go to the Pfizer vaccine but the Oxford one comes to you, otherwise the logistics don't work.

I have allergies anyway,  so would be within medical guidelines to ask which vaccine I would be getting.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on December 31, 2020, 04:28:10 PM
My local GP or health centre is unlikely to offer me the Pfizer jab anyway,  I would have to go to vaccination centre.

My parents have both had the Pfizer jab at their local health centre, i.e. doctor's surgery.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on December 31, 2020, 04:45:22 PM


The mRNA vaccine  has been around for 30 years and in that time has never been approved for use on humans for anything - there are major concerns about its hijacking the production  mechanisms in our cells to produce proteins.
 
I have allergies anyway,  so would be within medical guidelines to ask which vaccine I would be getting.
A couple of links to reassure you:-
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-12-mrna-vaccine-safety.html

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/mrna-coronavirus-vaccine-pfizer-biontech

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: zzaj on December 31, 2020, 10:17:36 PM
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30800-8/fulltext  ???
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on January 01, 2021, 08:44:01 AM
The mRNA vaccine  has been around for 30 years and in that time has never been approved for use on humans for anything - there are major concerns about its hijacking the production  mechanisms in our cells to produce proteins. 
I would have more time for this sort of assertion - which contradicts the (very knowledgeable and highly respected) MHRA - if some kind of reputable evidence was cited. Without that, all this does is sow unnecessary doubts in people’s minds, which in this case can cost lives. The worst sort of fake news. Nothing is perfectly safe, but the bottom line here is that the risks of the disease are much higher than the risks associated with vaccination.

I have allergies anyway,  so would be within medical guidelines to ask which vaccine I would be getting.
That depends on your allergies. The actual guidance on the Pfizer vaccine is about allergies to any components of the vaccine, not food or anything else. From the MHRA press release (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-approved):

“The CHM has also reviewed further data for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as it has become available and has recommended the following changes:
Allergies – anyone with a previous history of allergic reactions to the ingredients of the vaccine should not receive it, but those with any other allergies such as a food allergy can now have the vaccine.’”
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 01, 2021, 11:03:50 AM
Once again the kn*bhe@ds are putting everyone else at risk. Police had to disperse several hundred people from Edinburgh Castle Esplanade last night.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55506540 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55506540)

As Prof Hugh Montgomery  said yesterday, people who do not follow social distancing rules or wear masks "have blood on their hands"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55479018 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55479018)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on January 01, 2021, 02:01:45 PM
As Prof Hugh Montgomery  said yesterday, people who do not follow social distancing rules or wear masks "have blood on their hands"

I would add that people spreading fake news, made up history and imagined facts also have blood on their hands.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 01, 2021, 08:20:09 PM
After everything that has been said about sticking to the rules, neighbours have had his daughter and family visiting this evening, in a tier 4 area. The husband is a serving police officer, Sergeant no less.

It makes me laugh when I read about Police handing out fines for breaking the rules.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jan/01/new-years-eve-revellers-fined-by-police-for-breaking-covid-rules
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 01, 2021, 08:41:35 PM
The latest research shows that the new mutation of the virus far from raising the R0 by up to 0.4 in fact raises R0 by BETWEEN 0.4 and 0.7.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on January 01, 2021, 10:01:59 PM
After everything that has been said about sticking to the rules, neighbours have had his daughter and family visiting this evening, in a tier 4 area. The husband is a serving police officer, Sergeant no less.

It makes me laugh when I read about Police handing out fines for breaking the rules.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jan/01/new-years-eve-revellers-fined-by-police-for-breaking-covid-rules

Our neighbours, an NHS Sister and an Ambulance First Responder, had 4 car loads of visitors on Christmas Day. All stayed the night and the males were outside chanting like football hooligans until Midnight. My finger was hovering over the submit button on the reporting form but I held back as they had just stopped singing. I don’t think I will hesitate if they do it again. NHS workers should not be doing this!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 01, 2021, 10:16:45 PM
Listening to a matron in a London hospital on R5 Live today, she phoned in to say that they are very busy, and receiving significant numbers of younger covid patients. They have a ward full of sick children now, as well as people in their 20s and 30s with no underlying conditions.

The latest research shows that the new mutation of the virus far from raising the R0 by up to 0.4 in fact raises R0 by BETWEEN 0.4 and 0.7.

The full Imperial report on the B-117 strain is here, and makes for some scary bedtime reading

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 02, 2021, 04:29:06 AM
So the virus has found that the children* who decided to carry on as normal is a better reproduction route and has evolved.

Even so they still won't listen and would rather believe social media fake news and put us all at risk. These children will likely be the ones who refuse the vaccine.

* People of all ages that break Covid rules

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 02, 2021, 09:10:00 AM
Even so they still won't listen and would rather believe social media fake news and put us all at risk. These children will likely be the ones who refuse the vaccine.

Not sure if you include actual children in that, but there are no plans to offer the vaccine to children at all. School age children have had no choice but to carry on as normal.

In fact there are no plans currently to offer it to anyone under 50, as far as I can see, unless they have underlying health conditions.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 02, 2021, 09:23:01 AM

Not sure if you include actual children in that, but there are no plans to offer the vaccine to children at all. School age children have had no choice but to carry on as normal.

In fact there are no plans currently to offer it to anyone under 50, as far as I can see, unless they have underlying health conditions.
I think that up till now they didn't think that younger children were affected.
The idea of the vaccination was to vaccinate enough people to give the population as a whole herd immunity.
If children are being infected that will presumably require more people to be vaccinated whether it's children or adults.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 02, 2021, 09:40:58 AM
This was the R5 Live caller

https://twitter.com/i/status/1345006866829463552

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on January 02, 2021, 09:52:23 AM
Doohhhhh, which bright spark expert thought kids could not spread virus ?  Young children less likely to get symptoms but it is obvious they can be a vector for the virus.  I wonder if this was known all along and just ignored for some reason ?

I now believe more than ever that an 'expert' is ex = a has been,  and spert = a drip under pressure....

https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus-outbreak-and-kids
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 02, 2021, 10:14:35 AM
Does anybody here think this sounds like a good idea?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain.html
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 02, 2021, 10:36:50 AM
New York Times doesn't name source so I would treat it with a dose of salt. PHE say trials will start and that is only to be expected.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 02, 2021, 10:56:15 AM
New York Times doesn't name source so I would treat it with a dose of salt. PHE say trials will start and that is only to be expected.

The source is quoted in the article as the UK government covid greenbook, here

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948757/Greenbook_chapter_14a_v4.pdf

I think it was slipping this bit highlighted below that seems to have got them bothered, but it is worth reading in the context of the full passage.

Quote
Previous incomplete vaccination

If the course is interrupted or delayed, it should be resumed using the same vaccine but the first dose should not be repeated. There is no evidence on the interchangeability of the COVID-19 vaccines although studies are underway. Therefore, every effort should be made to determine which vaccine the individual received and to complete with the same vaccine. For individuals who started the schedule and who attend for vaccination at a site where the same vaccine is not available, or if the first product received is unknown, it is reasonable to offer one dose of the locally available product to complete the schedule. This option is preferred if the individual is likely to be at immediate high risk or is considered unlikely to attend again. In these circumstances, as both the vaccines are based on the spike protein, it is likely the second dose will help to boost the response to the first dose. For this reason, until additional information becomes available, further doses would not then be required.

Individuals who are participating in a clinical trial of COVID-19 vaccines who present for vaccination should be referred back to the investigators. Eligible persons who are enrolled in vaccine trials should then be provided with written advice on whether and when they can be safely vaccinated in the routine programme.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on January 02, 2021, 01:06:40 PM
We have just been notified that our lad who is in 6th form will be remote learning for two weeks wef 05-01-2021. He is also to be tested for Covid next week, which is great.

News of Covid rule breakers in France. What the...?  ::)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55513167 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55513167)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on January 02, 2021, 01:52:06 PM
Doohhhhh, which bright spark expert thought kids could not spread virus ?  Young children less likely to get symptoms but it is obvious they can be a vector for the virus.  I wonder if this was known all along and just ignored for some reason ?

I now believe more than ever that an 'expert' is ex = a has been,  and spert = a drip under pressure....

https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus-outbreak-and-kids

Yes let's not use qualified pilots to fly our planes.
Nor qualified doctors to treat us.
As for logistics, no need for experts /: any fool can do it.
As for mechanics, experts are not needed. Anyone can rebuild an engine or diagnose electrical issues.

 :) ;) :D ;D >:( :( :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 02, 2021, 02:01:36 PM
We have just been notified that our lad who is in 6th form will be remote learning for two weeks wef 05-01-2021.

I wouldn't hold your breath, the way things are going. There are already rumblings to shut all schools for at least 2 weeks.

We've had similar notification for ours in 6th form, one remote learning for 2 weeks, the other 1 week, as she is taking exams this year.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on January 02, 2021, 02:38:39 PM
Doohhhhh, which bright spark expert thought kids could not spread virus ?  Young children less likely to get symptoms but it is obvious they can be a vector for the virus.  I wonder if this was known all along and just ignored for some reason ?

I now believe more than ever that an 'expert' is ex = a has been,  and spert = a drip under pressure....

https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus-outbreak-and-kids

Yes let's not use qualified pilots to fly our planes.
Nor qualified doctors to treat us.
As for logistics, no need for experts /: any fool can do it.
As for mechanics, experts are not needed. Anyone can rebuild an engine or diagnose electrical issues.

 :) ;) :D ;D >:( :( :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o

I said experts, not trained working professionals - the governments tame experts on covid are mainly intellectuals from academia, about as far from the real world as you can get.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 02, 2021, 02:57:22 PM
Does anybody here think this sounds like a good idea?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain.html

I don't know. It depends how much is led by Science and how much by politics, panic and Big Pharma.
It does appear that the sh1t has hit the fan but it does seem as if the UK is taking a gamble in ignoring Pfizers advice on extending the interval between doses and mixing vaccines. (or are Pfizer covering their backsides and/or looking to profits).
Then again it might be more important to get as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible.
As I've said before I would put my faith in scientists before politicians but ultimately it's the politicians (no matter how inept) who must make the decisions.

Edit. I've just seen PHE is no longer advocating mixing vaccines.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/02/coronavirus-live-vietnam-reports-first-case-of-new-covid-variant-latest-updates?page=with:block-5ff081d48f08d0452b08a4f4#block-5ff081d48f08d0452b08a4f4

See14.24
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 02, 2021, 03:19:57 PM
Edit. I've just seen PHE is no longer advocating mixing vaccines.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/02/coronavirus-live-vietnam-reports-first-case-of-new-covid-variant-latest-updates?page=with:block-5ff081d48f08d0452b08a4f4#block-5ff081d48f08d0452b08a4f4

See14.24

It's all getting a bit confused now.

I only just saw the story pop up defending the move.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/02/england-health-officials-defend-contingency-plan-to-mix-covid-vaccines
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on January 02, 2021, 03:33:18 PM
Don't know about mixing vaccines but giving a first shot early as possible to make existing supplies go further and give at least some immunity to max number of people makes sense.  Seems that low temperature storage shortage for Pfizer in countries may be the problem,  as it says in this article healthcare providers at present are giving the first shot and then in addition to the new vaccine deliveries are having to store enough vaccine to give those people the second shot, this is tying up half the available doses, doing nobody any good.  The vaccine makers are saying that 14 to 20 days after first shot people get a decent amount of protection,  enough to stop them needing hospital anyway.  They did single doses during the trials and nobody who had received the first shot needed hospital care...  The article says that officials in USA need to have 'a more imaginative approach to the vaccinations' ( but Yanks are not going to follow UK willingly,  as Churchill said The Americans normally come to the right conclusion, but only after they have exhausted all the other possibilities' )

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/532270-us-debates-whether-uk-approach-is-better-on-covid-vaccinations
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 02, 2021, 03:40:01 PM
Edit. I've just seen PHE is no longer advocating mixing vaccines.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/02/coronavirus-live-vietnam-reports-first-case-of-new-covid-variant-latest-updates?page=with:block-5ff081d48f08d0452b08a4f4#block-5ff081d48f08d0452b08a4f4

See14.24

It's all getting a bit confused now.

I only just saw the story pop up defending the move.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/02/england-health-officials-defend-contingency-plan-to-mix-covid-vaccines
Yes I think you were right with your post this morning and that PHE were only advocating mixing the vaccines in exceptional circumstances.
The headline was misleading. (edit)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 02, 2021, 04:01:38 PM
Yes I think you were right with your post this morning and that PHE were only advocating mixing the vaccines in exceptional circumstances.
The headline was misleading. (edit)

There may be something fishy, it's the bit about using a different second dose if the original type is not available that seems to be controversial - this approach is contrary to all the manufacturers' indications.

Are they using the existing stock of Pfizer vaccine up without having the second dose on hand? The original shipment was only for 800,000 doses, plus the 20-40% extra they say they can squeeze from the overfills, so just over a million doses... 950,000 had been vaccinated up to 2 days ago.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinS on January 02, 2021, 04:27:59 PM
Am I correct in thinking that the two vaccines in use in the UK provide protection using different methods?

If that is the case then a vaccination using a different type some weeks later would act, not as a second (booster) type, but would be a first vaccination of a different mechanism and as such would need another of the same type some weeks afterwards.  So three in all?

Of course I am no expert and could be completely wrong.

In the original trials, have the subjects been given a second shot?  Or are they running on the original jab?  If they have been given a second one, then there is no real world proof that the vaccine is still effective after nn weeks is there?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 02, 2021, 08:54:52 PM
Am I correct in thinking that the two vaccines in use in the UK provide protection using different methods?

If that is the case then a vaccination using a different type some weeks later would act, not as a second (booster) type, but would be a first vaccination of a different mechanism and as such would need another of the same type some weeks afterwards.  So three in all?

Of course I am no expert and could be completely wrong.

No expert either, but what you say all sounds plausible.


In the original trials, have the subjects been given a second shot?  Or are they running on the original jab?  If they have been given a second one, then there is no real world proof that the vaccine is still effective after nn weeks is there?

Well, Pfizer say they have no data to support the effectiveness or otherwise of the first dose of the vaccine beyond 21 days, so presumably everyone in the trials had both jabs.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 02, 2021, 09:06:10 PM
Pfizer say they have no data to support the effectiveness or otherwise of the first dose of the vaccine beyond 21 days, so presumably everyone in the trials had both jabs.
Seems strange. Surely, if you were trialling a vaccine, you would give one dose of different sizes. After measuring the results, decide what gave the best results. You would then give a second dose and gradually move that second one out until it ceased to be as effective. If they didn't go beyond 21 days, how do they know that longer doesn't give better protection? How do they know 12 weeks doesn't give 100% protection? They must have data.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on January 02, 2021, 10:39:43 PM
They simply haven’t had time to test all the different timelines. They have done the minimum necessary.

Basically, the first dram will get you nice and mellow. The second, 30 minutes later, should get you all the way there.

Since both vaccines work on the spike protein they think combining them 'could be effective', is what I read.

So if the second drink is not whisky but a pint of bitter, which is still based on affecting brain chemistry, it should still get you there. However, we all know what mixing your drinks can do.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 02, 2021, 11:17:58 PM
Pfizer say they have no data to support the effectiveness or otherwise of the first dose of the vaccine beyond 21 days, so presumably everyone in the trials had both jabs.
Seems strange. Surely, if you were trialling a vaccine, you would give one dose of different sizes. After measuring the results, decide what gave the best results. You would then give a second dose and gradually move that second one out until it ceased to be as effective. If they didn't go beyond 21 days, how do they know that longer doesn't give better protection? How do they know 12 weeks doesn't give 100% protection? They must have data.
That's not how the tests work.
You can't test on an individual basis since peoples' reactions to the vaccine will vary.
Phase 1and 2 trials are looking for adverse reactions and immune response.
Phase 3 trials investigate the efficacy of the vaccine statistically.
A large sample of people are vaccinated half with the vaccine  under test half with a placebo.
The rates of infection of the two groups after certain periods of time are compared.(Actually the times are determined by when a certain number of the volunteers are infected)
Pfizer tests were standardised with two doses given at three week intervals. They have not tested the efficacy at longer time intervals and therefore do not guarantee it.

https://www.aarp.org/health/drugs-supplements/info-2020/developing-testing-covid-vaccine.html

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 03, 2021, 11:02:41 AM
That's not how the tests work.
I'm not stupid enough to think that they tested on individual subjects, but they must have done their group tests with various combinations and doses and time between doses. After all, how did they decide on 3 weeks between doses? Throw a dice? I cannot believe that they tried 3 weeks between doses, found it gave 95% efficacy and thought, that will do. They must have tried other periods between doses in case longer or shorter periods gave even better results.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 03, 2021, 11:11:40 AM
Does anybody here think this sounds like a good idea?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain.html

I see that the BMJ editor has requested that the New York Times correct their erroneous report about the UK mixing vaccine types. My opinion is that the US are pi$$ed that the UK is ahead of them in licencing vaccines and dishing them ou,t so are trying to talk down our position. This is both the US media and their medical experts, Fauci included.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55519042 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55519042)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 03, 2021, 11:18:08 AM
That's not how the tests work.
I'm not stupid enough to think that they tested on individual subjects, but they must have done their group tests with various combinations and doses and time between doses. After all, how did they decide on 3 weeks between doses? Throw a dice? I cannot believe that they tried 3 weeks between doses, found it gave 95% efficacy and thought, that will do. They must have tried other periods between doses in case longer or shorter periods gave even better results.

Perhaps tests like the ones you are suggesting are ongoing but it was presumably more important to progress to stage 3 trials asap. The maximum time between doses appears to have been 42 days.
 It would also seem prudent to gain maximum protection asap since it is not yet known how long protection from a single dose would last.

"It’s a two-shot vaccine, so what happens if people miss their second shot? Is a single shot still protective?"
"Two shots are needed, and the second shot is required to attain immunity. The gap between doses in the trial ranged between 19 and 42 days. Only 2 per cent of people in the trial missed their second dose so it isn’t entirely clear what happens under those circumstances."

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2261805-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine/#ixzz6iU1SmYSV

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20200605/covid-19-vaccine-will-probably-require-two-doses
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 03, 2021, 11:30:55 AM
I see that the BMJ editor has requested that the New York Times correct their erroneous report about the UK mixing vaccine types. My opinion is that the US are pi$$ed that the UK is ahead of them in licencing vaccines and dishing them ou,t so are trying to talk down our position. This is both the US media and their medical experts, Fauci included.

It looks to me like 6 of one and half a dozen of the other. The passage they referred to originally did give the impression that the vaccines could be mixed if the correct one was not available, however the later clarification from PHE said that this would not happen. NYT also took the original quote completely out of context, implying that it would be a free-for-all.

As for the 21 day thing, I've been googling various different vaccine trials, as you do, and this 21 day gap for 2-dose trials does seem to be almost universal.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 03, 2021, 12:00:52 PM
Pfizer say they have no data to support the effectiveness or otherwise of the first dose of the vaccine beyond 21 days
Quote
The maximum time between doses appears to have been 42 days.

One or other of these statements must be incorrect as I have argued all along.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 03, 2021, 03:01:28 PM
Pfizer say they have no data to support the effectiveness or otherwise of the first dose of the vaccine beyond 21 days
Quote
The maximum time between doses appears to have been 42 days.

One or other of these statements must be incorrect as I have argued all along.

I'm just reading what Pfizer is reported to have said, quite possibly their contribution has been truncated. Perhaps they meant accurate or reliable data, maybe even for the 12 week gap. Also bear in mind that this represents a gap of potentially up to 84 days, double the maximum linked to above.

I'll say one other thing, when you start looking for data regarding the efficacy of these vaccines, there are all sorts of different numbers out there, reported by different bodies. I like to understand things that are going on in the world, but this is all utterly baffling. I know what people will think, they will assume that the numbers are being chosen to suit the agenda.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 03, 2021, 03:17:55 PM
Pfizer say they have no data to support the effectiveness or otherwise of the first dose of the vaccine beyond 21 days
Quote
The maximum time between doses appears to have been 42 days.

One or other of these statements must be incorrect as I have argued all along.

"Two shots are needed, and the second shot is required to attain immunity. The gap between doses in the trial ranged between 19 and 42 days. Only 2 per cent of people in the trial missed their second dose so it isn’t entirely clear what happens under those circumstances."

The maximum gap of 42 days came from that quote .

Stage 3 trials were conducted with a gap of 21 days. Perhaps the 19 and 42 days were outliers eg re-arranged appointments.
It is the stage 3 trials (involving thousands of people) which establish the efficacy.
To test for maximum efficacy would require a number of stage 3 trials which would require a long time and a lot of people. Perhaps 21 days was chosen as a good compromise. It's more important to have a working vaccine than to push up the efficacy by 1or2%

I notice that Paul has reposted just before me and I would agree with him about the amount of data. There will be lots out there that will be incomprehensible to the general public and open to many interpretations.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 03, 2021, 04:39:52 PM
(Past) Time for more severe restrictions.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-covid-rules-boris-johnson-b1781717.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-nicola-sturgeon-scottish-parliament-b1781663.html

Sh1t appears to be hitting the fan wrt hospital beds.
https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1345808254945947649?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1345808254945947649%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2021%2Fjan%2F04%2Fuk-coronavirus-live-matt-hancock-south-african-covid-variant-lockdown-schools-latest-updates

Latest edit added twitter feeed re hospital beds
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 04, 2021, 10:42:25 AM
Waiting with bated breath to see what Nicky Nacky Noo will announce in the Scottish Parliament this afternoon. My wife hopes the Shielding will have to stay at home again. You can tell she loves her work!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 04, 2021, 11:45:24 AM
I wasn't particularly impressed by the PM's response on the rolling news.
 To paraphrase "we will keep  it under review"
 which translates as "we will leave it too late again until forced to act"
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 04, 2021, 12:04:36 PM
Matt Halfcock said this morning that tier 4 would have been sufficient if it wasn't for 'behaviour'
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 04, 2021, 12:21:37 PM
Matt Halfcock said this morning that tier 4 would have been sufficient if it wasn't for 'behaviour'
Looks like they've now reached the final stage of the course of actions I posted some months ago in a previous thread.

Govt Policy
1. Try to pretend it isn’t happening.
2. Panic!
3. Throw money at large outsourcing companies
4. Dissemble, prevaricate and lie
5. Blame the scientists
6. Blame the people
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 04, 2021, 12:27:07 PM
I wasn't particularly impressed by the PM's response on the rolling news.
 To paraphrase "we will keep  it under review"
 which translates as "we will leave it too late again until forced to act"

I wasn't impressed with him smirking all way through Marr's feeble questions yesterday.

We are within grasp of a solution to all this, and there are still MPs on twitter pushing the "tolerable deaths" agenda, one of them tweeted this quote

Quote
‘The challenge that faces us is to decide - are we going to try to pursue the elimination of Covid-19 regardless of the costs or decide on a tolerable level of deaths (like we do with the flu) in order to return to a normal life?’

https://digitaleditions.telegraph.co.uk/data/466/reader/reader.html?#!preferred/0/package/466/pub/466/page/72/article/119046

...only we don't 'tolerate' flu deaths do we? We vaccinate for it.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 04, 2021, 12:50:33 PM
There should have been a better deterrent in place for rule/law breakers.

Fines would bring in extra revenue and would maybe deter these selfish *enter your own word here* in the first place. Just turning drivers back probably just prompts them to find another route in.

One £200 fixed penalty notice then another doubled to £400 for the alternative route should teach them.

More towing of illegally parked cars, etc.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 04, 2021, 01:32:24 PM
Jeremy Hunt is pushing for full lockdown

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jan/04/uk-coronavirus-live-matt-hancock-south-african-covid-variant-lockdown-schools-latest-updates?page=with:block-5ff309968f08b66486e2e117#block-5ff309968f08b66486e2e117
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on January 04, 2021, 01:40:26 PM
https://www.centreforcities.org/data/coronavirus-cases-uk-cities-large-towns/ shows the new infection rates for teh highest areas in England.

It is worth reading to see the rates.

When Liverpool had over 450 cases per 100,000 of population, it was locked down
London and other areas have over 600 cases per 100,000 (and rising) they have not been locked down. (Yet!)

The Government have lost the plot (again).

As for education, Williamson - Education Secretary appears unfit to run anything as the same mistakes are being repeated. London schools should have been closed in November along with a London Lockdown.

No wonder Teaching Unions are revolting.


Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 04, 2021, 01:42:22 PM
Full lockdown for Scotland from tonight

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jan/04/uk-coronavirus-live-matt-hancock-south-african-covid-variant-lockdown-schools-latest-updates?page=with:block-5ff319ca8f08d0452b08bcbe#block-5ff319ca8f08d0452b08bcbe
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 04, 2021, 02:22:06 PM
No wonder Teaching Unions are revolting.

It should also be noted that teachers are not refusing to work, as commentators like Hartley-Brewer like to suggest from their comfy chairs in their covid-secure studios. Our school's  teachers are all in and teaching via Microsoft Teams, my two had to log on this morning at normal start time.

All employees are entitled to a safe workplace as set out in the HSW regulations.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 04, 2021, 03:14:00 PM
Boris briefing at 20:00
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 04, 2021, 03:14:45 PM
Full lockdown for Scotland from tonight

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jan/04/uk-coronavirus-live-matt-hancock-south-african-covid-variant-lockdown-schools-latest-updates?page=with:block-5ff319ca8f08d0452b08bcbe#block-5ff319ca8f08d0452b08bcbe
Official statement here
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55527195

Hope the PM's is as clear and explicit later.

Edit changed link since live iplayer expired
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: John A on January 04, 2021, 04:34:46 PM
Full lockdown for Scotland from tonight

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jan/04/uk-coronavirus-live-matt-hancock-south-african-covid-variant-lockdown-schools-latest-updates?page=with:block-5ff319ca8f08d0452b08bcbe#block-5ff319ca8f08d0452b08bcbe

Where Nicola leads, Boris follows  ::)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 04, 2021, 04:50:06 PM
What I can see the Scottish regulations, other than for schools, will make no difference to what people do.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: John A on January 04, 2021, 04:55:47 PM
What I can see the Scottish regulations, other than for schools, will make no difference to what people do.

Going to be the law I think:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/?fbclid=IwAR0SSYpiwXVQ20yFXp512xxuGf_C2jmQTsnXLl4d_loDk1QndCZAlkt4hHg
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 04, 2021, 05:33:48 PM
Boris briefing at 20:00

Best thing he could do is crib Nicola Sturgeon's speech.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on January 04, 2021, 06:07:08 PM
Boris briefing at 20:00

Best thing he could do is crib Nicola Sturgeon's speech.

Boris does not do truth.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 04, 2021, 07:16:25 PM
Going to be the law I think:
Yes, but the law only works if it is enforced. Besides only being able to meet up with one other person outside from one other household, the rules are the same as before.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 05, 2021, 05:14:29 AM
So let's see how many still head for UK beauty spots and are just turned away after all car parks and pavements are full of cars.

I would get the Police to note all reg numbers and if considered not locals sent a fixed £200 penalty with the usual doubling for each offence.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 05, 2021, 06:56:47 AM
The ski resorts in Scotland have been busy this past week with visitors. At least from today, they are closed down.

In Scotland you can still play golf but not in England. Would help if all four nations had a unified approach.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: springswood on January 05, 2021, 08:24:36 AM
Printable words fail me. Opening primary schools for a day then closing them with 12 hours notice. It's a level of incompetence and failure to learn anything in 9 months that beggars belief. I would love to say how a primary headteacher friend of mine described it, suffice it to say it begins cluster.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on January 05, 2021, 10:09:09 AM
It was safe on Sunday, a cause of infection on Monday. It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 05, 2021, 10:23:09 AM
It was safe on Sunday, a cause of infection on Monday. It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

It doesn't do a lot to inspire public trust, does it?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on January 05, 2021, 10:31:22 AM
It was safe on Sunday, a cause of infection on Monday. It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

It doesn't do a lot to inspire public trust, does it?

Follows a pattern- denial, denial, emphatic denial,360 degree about turn next day. Signs of a muppet.

A competent Minister of Health would have resigned.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on January 05, 2021, 11:07:14 AM
So, here we go again. Lockdown.  :-[ Like the everybody else, not happy about it, but happy to stick to the rules and looking forward to my trip to Barnard Castle when I get bored. Sorry, but the Cummings bloke still makes me flippin mad.

We live in a semi-detached house, and right through the last lockdown the neighbours had builders on site 7 days a week! It was a total nightmate to be honest. This lockdown will be much easier to survive as at least we don't have the banging through the walls for hours every day.

There should have been a better deterrent in place for rule/law breakers.

Fines would bring in extra revenue and would maybe deter these selfish *enter your own word here* in the first place. Just turning drivers back probably just prompts them to find another route in.

One £200 fixed penalty notice then another doubled to £400 for the alternative route should teach them.

More towing of illegally parked cars, etc.

I'm in full agreement. Fine and 10 hours community service for first offence. Second offence, quadruple fine and community service. About time some people realised the whole world doesn't revolve around them and they are not exempy from the rules. I think 10 hours litter picking, post lockdown, would do them the world of good. We wouldn't be in this situation if people had exercised some restraint and commen sense.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 05, 2021, 01:14:28 PM
There should have been a better deterrent in place for rule/law breakers.

Fines would bring in extra revenue and would maybe deter these selfish *enter your own word here* in the first place. Just turning drivers back probably just prompts them to find another route in.

One £200 fixed penalty notice then another doubled to £400 for the alternative route should teach them.

More towing of illegally parked cars, etc.

I'm in full agreement. Fine and 10 hours community service for first offence. Second offence, quadruple fine and community service. About time some people realised the whole world doesn't revolve around them and they are not exempy from the rules. I think 10 hours litter picking, post lockdown, would do them the world of good. We wouldn't be in this situation if people had exercised some restraint and commen sense.

I'm afraid what you are suggesting won't happen here in England.

Many people that voted the current PM into his position are the same people who are convinced that rules aren't for them, and that we don't need to listen to experts. If you look at the bio's of particularly aggressive twitter posters, you will find a remarkable correlation between supporting various permutations of pro-Boris, pro-Trump, anti-lockdown, anti-mask and anti-vax sentiments. Many of them are now vocally turning against the PM, and they are worried about it.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 05, 2021, 02:06:56 PM
I still believe that anyone who hasn't had the vaccine is denied access to any at risk places just as Spain have threatened. Stadiums, cinemas, aircraft, etc.

I also think that a proper financial and/or community service deterrent should be widely used, not just publish it and fine a very small %. These cars that were turned around in Wales who had driven from as far away as London should have been slapped with the £200 fine for exiting tier 4.

..... and I voted Tory
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 05, 2021, 02:46:33 PM
I still believe that anyone who hasn't had the vaccine is denied access to any at risk places just as Spain have threatened. Stadiums, cinemas, aircraft, etc.

The only problem with that is that a significant part of society won't even be offered a vaccine, certainly not in the near future.

I also think that a proper financial and/or community service deterrent should be widely used, not just publish it and fine a very small %. These cars that were turned around in Wales who had driven from as far away as London should have been slapped with the £200 fine for exiting tier 4.

I agree with you, there needs to be some deterrent for the hard nuts. These people know exactly what they are doing, but they're not going to be told what to do.

All these rules should have been rigorously enforced from the beginning though. There have been mass anti-mask demonstrations in London every weekend, largely unreported in the press to suppress publicity, just because people don't want a bit of cloth over their mouth - and they have been tolerated. There is already a significant backlash against this lockdown on social media, it won't be long before the idiots start organising unrest.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 05, 2021, 02:56:55 PM
It all seems a bit strange having the kids at home during the day, but hearing them doing lessons over video link.

I'm a lot happier with the organisation this time, teaching during the first lockdown was very patchy, to say the least, but the software tools being used now require a decent internet connection - I've had to quickly install an extender this morning to improve the internet connection for a room furthest from the router. I'm sure there will be families out there struggling to organise devices and suitable internet connections.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 05, 2021, 03:31:24 PM
Yes, it must be difficult for some.

When mine was at Uni and working upstairs I used a Netgear Powerline setup. Was more stable than Wifi in those days. These days with Mesh devices you have more choice.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 05, 2021, 03:36:37 PM
We went over to visit my mother-in-law today, and the roads were definitely quieter. The A92 Regional Road seemed pretty much as usual, but the M90, M9 M8 and A720 Edinburgh City Bypass were all quieter.
Still considerably busier than the first Lockdown though, but then hardly anybody was working. My wife has been told to stay off work as she is in the Shielding category, but she has decided the difference between SSP and her wage is too great to comply with the advice.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 05, 2021, 03:50:33 PM
It all seems a bit strange having the kids at home during the day, but hearing them doing lessons over video link.

 I'm sure there will be families out there struggling to organise devices and suitable internet connections.

Sounds good as long as it doesn't involve a big bung to a Tory donor.

"The phone company Three UK has announced it will provide unlimited data upgrades to disadvantaged school children in England to help them with remote learning during the lockdown.
The firm, which is working in partnership with the Department for Education, said that, when a child does not have internet access at home, the school will be able to request free data through the DfE’s Get Help with Technology programme. Unlimited data will be applied until the end of the school year."
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 05, 2021, 04:18:40 PM
When mine was at Uni and working upstairs I used a Netgear Powerline setup.

That's exactly what I've done temporarily, I had a spare pair of TP-link ones. I've got some wifi extenders boxed up somewhere, when I can dig one out, that will be a neater solution if it works good enough.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on January 05, 2021, 04:39:26 PM
Very pleased with home schooling today. This is the first time our lad has had online lessons and coursework set. I am really happy his school have done this, and they are dealing with the school closure in such a professional way. Excellent. I have emailed his head of year already to give positive feedback and thanks. 

I hope it continues and is a reflection of what most children are receiving.

I am aware of how very lucky we are though. We are able to provide him with his own laptop, own room with a desk and fibre broadband. Sadly not all children have those facilities.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 05, 2021, 05:01:31 PM
I am aware of how very lucky we are though. We are able to provide him with his own laptop, own room with a desk and fibre broadband. Sadly not all children have those facilities.

Up until recently, we would have struggled with this. We couldn't get half decent ADSL, never mind fibre.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 05, 2021, 06:08:51 PM
Scary biscuits from New Scientist and Chris Whitty tonight.
Boris was bad enough last night while reading from a script. Tonight he was almost incoherent.

1in 30 infected in London
"The UK reported 60,916 new daily coronavirus cases on Tuesday, surpassing 60,000 daily new cases for the first time since the start of the pandemic. One in 50 people in England and one in 30 in London are estimated to have the coronavirus, according to the most recent data from the Office for National Statistics, England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty said during a televised briefing on Tuesday. By comparison, one in 900 people were infected in early September. "

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-third-england-lockdown-could-last-until-march/#ixzz6ihJeu5rk
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 05, 2021, 06:33:02 PM
Scary biscuits from New Scientist and Chris Whitty tonight.
Boris was bad enough last night while reading from a script. Tonight he was almost incoherent.

Sounded like he needed rebooting, it's obvious to me that he's struggling to cope with all this. He had no idea what to say to the questions about internet access for disadvantaged students, and looked completely lost and out of his depth.

Talking about scary biscuits, something has been bothering me since yesterday. During an interview, Matt Hancock said that he was ‘incredibly worried’ about the South Africa variant. He also said that, "this is a very, very significant problem ... even more of a problem than the UK new variant.”

I know Peston talks some cobblers, but yesterday he claimed that government scientists were not fully confident that vaccines will work on a new variant of the coronavirus found in South Africa, citing an unidentified adviser.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 05, 2021, 06:50:56 PM
1 in 30 in London wouldn't surprise me but the local news reckons 1 in 50.

I'm in west London and when I go walking, early, in the dark, I see buses full of people, mostly Heathrow workers, easily seen in the lighted saloon. Upstairs they either have no masks or pulled round their chin. Downstairs they seem to be masked up but a lot of noses sticking out.

A friend uses the tube and he says, they pass through the barriers masked up, then when out of sight, masks pulled round the chin again.

In both bus and tube cases the vast majority of 'people' we see who don't seem to care I cannot identify in writing.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 05, 2021, 07:42:18 PM

Talking about scary biscuits, something has been bothering me since yesterday. During an interview, Matt Hancock said that he was ‘incredibly worried’ about the South Africa variant. He also said that, "this is a very, very significant problem ... even more of a problem than the UK new variant.”

I know Peston talks some cobblers, but yesterday he claimed that government scientists were not fully confident that vaccines will work on a new variant of the coronavirus found in South Africa, citing an unidentified adviser.
Yes that would be much worse. I read somewhere that it is a possibility because there were more changes but they don't know as yet and that the tests take time.


"Preliminary results from those studies may be ready by the end of this week," Lessells said."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-vaccines/south-african-variant-unlikely-to-fully-negate-covid-vaccines-scientist-says-idUSKBN29A27R

Just found explanation by Sir Patrick Vallance from tonight's update

    Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, played down the risks posed by the South African variant of the virus. He said a possible change in the virus shape in the variant “theoretically gives it a bit more risk of not being recognised” by the immune system. But he went on:

There is nothing yet to suggest that’s the case. This is being looked at very actively.

It’s worth remembering that when a vaccine is given you don’t just make one antibody against one bit, you make lots of antibodies against lots of different bits, and so it’s unlikely that all of that will be escaped by any mutations. But we don’t know yet.

At the moment, you’d say the most likely thing is that this wouldn’t abolish vaccine effect. It may have some overall effect on efficacy but we don’t know.

Edit Added link and then quote. Then explanation from Patrick Vallance
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 05, 2021, 07:57:43 PM
Talking about scary biscuits, something has been bothering me since yesterday. During an interview, Matt Hancock said that he was ‘incredibly worried’ about the South Africa variant. He also said that, "this is a very, very significant problem ... even more of a problem than the UK new variant.”

I know Peston talks some cobblers, but yesterday he claimed that government scientists were not fully confident that vaccines will work on a new variant of the coronavirus found in South Africa, citing an unidentified adviser.
Yes that would be much worse. I read somewhere that it is a possibility because there were more changes but they don't know as yet and that the tests take time.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-vaccines/south-african-variant-unlikely-to-fully-negate-covid-vaccines-scientist-says-idUSKBN29A27R

Edit Added link

Nobody seems to know where things stand with this at the moment, I hope I will be reassured by some of the results of these studies. I understand they are doing similar testing at Porton Down.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 05, 2021, 08:03:08 PM

Nobody seems to know where things stand with this at the moment, I hope I will be reassured by some of the results of these studies. I understand they are doing similar testing at Porton Down.

Yes I think they will be investigating it at Porton Down but I would imagine the South African research will be at a more advanced stage.

The longer it goes on the more mutations there will be, and it's like monkeys and typewriters, the more chance there will be of changes being significant.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 05, 2021, 08:34:41 PM
WHO not impressed by mucking about with vaccine schedules

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/05/no-data-to-support-uk-delay-of-vaccines-second-dose-says-who
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 05, 2021, 11:00:12 PM
Just been watching local news, they have just come out with some pretty ominous numbers - new variant now accounts for more than 50% of infections and increasing here, and in some areas, 1 in 40 currently have the virus.

With the increased transmission of this new variant, is it even safe to go to a supermarket around here? I think we'll have to work out something so we can do what shopping we need early in the morning, as soon as they open, when fewer people have been through.

My other half has recently been struggling with her asthma, doctor is still fiddling with her medication to try to get it under control.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 05, 2021, 11:33:52 PM
WHO not impressed by mucking about with vaccine schedules

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/05/no-data-to-support-uk-delay-of-vaccines-second-dose-says-who

Reply given here by Jason Leitch to question at 1hour.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000r1xf/coronavirus-update-05012021
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 05, 2021, 11:35:32 PM
Just been watching local news, they have just come out with some pretty ominous numbers - new variant now accounts for more than 50% of infections and increasing here, and in some areas, 1 in 40 currently have the virus.

With the increased transmission of this new variant, is it even safe to go to a supermarket around here? I think we'll have to work out something so we can do what shopping we need early in the morning, as soon as they open, when fewer people have been through.

My other half has recently been struggling with her asthma, doctor is still fiddling with her medication to try to get it under control.
Sorry to hear it.
I've been using home deliveries since March.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinS on January 06, 2021, 08:04:19 AM
I've been using home deliveries since March.
We've been getting home deliveries from Tesco for twenty years.  That is up until March when everyone climbed on the bandwagon.  Now we can't get a slot.  We've recently start using Sainsburys and they seem to be somewhat better.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on January 06, 2021, 08:08:09 AM
Just been watching local news, they have just come out with some pretty ominous numbers - new variant now accounts for more than 50% of infections and increasing here, and in some areas, 1 in 40 currently have the virus.

With the increased transmission of this new variant, is it even safe to go to a supermarket around here? I think we'll have to work out something so we can do what shopping we need early in the morning, as soon as they open, when fewer people have been through.

My other half has recently been struggling with her asthma, doctor is still fiddling with her medication to try to get it under control.

Very sorry to hear that too. I hope it gets sorted soon.

We have been using click and collect for some time. Load your car up outside in the fresh air with your shopping. The supermarket we use has a small charge, but we are happy and able to pay for the service.

When we do need to go into a shop, we try to go as late as possible to avoid shoppers.

We also wash all packaging with a bleach solution. Too far? Been doing this on everything that enters our house since March as best as possible.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 06, 2021, 09:31:46 AM
We've been getting home deliveries from Tesco for twenty years.  That is up until March when everyone climbed on the bandwagon.  Now we can't get a slot.  We've recently start using Sainsburys and they seem to be somewhat better.

That's the problem we have. We don't have the best selection of supermarkets anyway, but getting a delivery slot is difficult. Click & Collect availability at Asda seems pretty good at the moment though, so I think we'll be having some of that. I think we'll be steering clear of supermarkets as much as possible, infections rates round here are going through the roof - up 111% since 7 days ago in one council area adjacent to us.

They've been talking about anti-vaxxers on TV this morning, whether they should be prosecuted, and how they're going to convince these people to have the vaccine. If it was up to me, I would be waiting for them with a blowpipe!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on January 06, 2021, 10:59:33 AM
We've been getting home deliveries from Tesco for twenty years.  That is up until March when everyone climbed on the bandwagon.  Now we can't get a slot.  We've recently start using Sainsburys and they seem to be somewhat better.

That's the problem we have. We don't have the best selection of supermarkets anyway, but getting a delivery slot is difficult. Click & Collect availability at Asda seems pretty good at the moment though, so I think we'll be having some of that. I think we'll be steering clear of supermarkets as much as possible, infections rates round here are going through the roof - up 111% since 7 days ago in one council area adjacent to us.

They've been talking about anti-vaxxers on TV this morning, whether they should be prosecuted, and how they're going to convince these people to have the vaccine. If it was up to me, I would be waiting for them with a blowpipe!

I have an alternative.

If there is a queue for Covid treatment, any anti-vaxers automatically go to the end of the queue for treatment
 = always every day until there is no queue . Effectively that means they will only be treated when the pandemic has died to virtually nil. Cries of "free medicine  for all" etc. But they are not being denied treatment : just taking their turn in the queue - which is always being last.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 06, 2021, 11:50:40 AM
My wife had her Pfizer vaccine this morning and so far no ill effects other than a bit of a sore arm. She said the vaccination was a bit nippy. She has been given an appointment in four weeks for the second part, but I pointed out that she may be knocked back.

My Mum had no ill effects whatsoever apart from the sore arm, but Dad had the fatigue, joint aches, headache, etc. come on over the following days.

They both still have their appointments for the second jab exactly 21 days from the first one, given to them on the day of the first jab, complete with a lecture on the importance of turning up for the second dose.


I'm pleased to report that Dad had his second jab yesterday, and Mum is going this afternoon for hers, 21 days after the first jab.

Hope Mrs Jocko gets hers too.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 06, 2021, 11:54:46 AM
What I can't find anywhere is the exact rules on support bubbles under full lockdown.

I have a 1 on 1, therefore legal, support bubble but we are 30 miles apart. Am I still Ok to drive there ?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 06, 2021, 12:35:17 PM


I'm pleased to report that Dad had his second jab yesterday, and Mum is going this afternoon for hers, 21 days after the first jab.

Hope Mrs Jocko gets hers too.

Hope they haven't buggered up the system.

Only joking. Good for them. :D
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on January 06, 2021, 12:51:59 PM
What I can't find anywhere is the exact rules on support bubbles under full lockdown.

I have a 1 on 1, therefore legal, support bubble but we are 30 miles apart. Am I still Ok to drive there ?

I'm similar. My mother-in-law is 77, lives in a village on her own, no car, not allowed to drive but she is 50 miles away. Other than a day out in September to Whitby, visiting her is our only significant trip away from the house. She is in North Yorkshire (just) and we are in West Yorkshire. But I believe it is all allowed. They would like you to keep to local only journeys but unless she moves house or we do, that is not possible.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 06, 2021, 01:05:54 PM
That's how I think it is. They 'request' you bubble locally but not an instruction.

I'm thinking of printing a sheet to hand to Police should I get stopped. Me, her, both addresses and a 1 on 1 statement.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 06, 2021, 01:17:31 PM
There is no distance restriction on support bubbles, but you are advised to form a bubble locally. You can even stay overnight. There are more restrictions on who can form a support bubble than on distance.

We visit my wife's mother under the:" to provide care, assistance, support to or respite for a vulnerable person" regulations.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 07, 2021, 03:43:57 PM
WHO not impressed by mucking about with vaccine schedules

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/05/no-data-to-support-uk-delay-of-vaccines-second-dose-says-who

Reply given here by Jason Leitch to question at 1hour.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000r1xf/coronavirus-update-05012021
As Jason Leitch says it was a JCVI decision.
Here is the report which Hancock now says has been available for some time.
https://app.box.com/s/uwwn2dv4o2d0ena726gf4403f3p2acnu
I would think your parents are in a good position having been vaccinated twice.
My daughter received her first vaccination this morning. She was initially supposed to be vaccinated on Christmas Day but for some reason the vaccination was cancelled but she was given a date when she was working so that appt. had to be cancelled. Third time lucky.
The logistics of this programme are going to be be horrendous to take into account personal cicumstances like this and the vaccines not arriving for Hancock's photoshoot.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 07, 2021, 04:51:19 PM
It's good to hear that at least some vaccines are hitting the ground.


What do you think of this?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/patients-rejected-pfizer-vaccine-wait-oxford-jab-b740836.html

Quote
"Some local patients have turned down an offer this weekend of getting a Covid vaccine when they found out it was the Pfizer one. 'I'll wait for the English one'.

"People at risk of death in the depths of a pandemic. A lesson that Nationalism has consequences."
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on January 07, 2021, 05:03:36 PM
I've been using home deliveries since March.
We've been getting home deliveries from Tesco for twenty years.  That is up until March when everyone climbed on the bandwagon.  Now we can't get a slot.  We've recently start using Sainsburys and they seem to be somewhat better.

We gave up with Tesco as well. We now use Waitrose and they don't charge for deliveries over £40 - bit dearer but the free delivery compensates for that. I think once you are recognised as a loyal customer you get some degree of priority access in that slots are released to loyal customers and the old before general release. Having no problems. We opt for a Tuesday morning slot.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on January 07, 2021, 05:47:15 PM
It's good to hear that at least some vaccines are hitting the ground.


What do you think of this?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/patients-rejected-pfizer-vaccine-wait-oxford-jab-b740836.html

Quote
"Some local patients have turned down an offer this weekend of getting a Covid vaccine when they found out it was the Pfizer one. 'I'll wait for the English one'.

"People at risk of death in the depths of a pandemic. A lesson that Nationalism has consequences."

I said earlier in this thread I would wait for Oxford jab, haven't changed my mind- nothing to do with nationalism just that adenovirus type vaccine is more traditional which suits me. Seems the Oxford vaccine will be rolled out to GPs as it is much easier to transport and store, the fragile Pfizer one will be used at 'vaccination centres, care homes and hospitals where they can guarantee larger flow through or resident people needing vaccination. By the time they get to me probably run out of Pfizer anyway.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on January 07, 2021, 06:11:00 PM
My youngest son's partner is a nurse and she had the Pfizer/Beyonce vaccine today. She has been working so hard and dealing with horrible patients, as well as nice ones, all whilst worrying about COVID. At least this will take a weight off her mind.

My Mother-in-Law's 80yo neighbours have both been vaccinated now also. She's 77 herself so still waiting in line.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 07, 2021, 06:27:39 PM
My mother-in-law is 96 and will have to wait too. She was in a care home before Christmas and would have been vaccinated by now, but she will have to take pot luck as she is now home.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 07, 2021, 06:53:41 PM
It's good to hear that at least some vaccines are hitting the ground.


What do you think of this?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/patients-rejected-pfizer-vaccine-wait-oxford-jab-b740836.html

Quote
"Some local patients have turned down an offer this weekend of getting a Covid vaccine when they found out it was the Pfizer one. 'I'll wait for the English one'.

"People at risk of death in the depths of a pandemic. A lesson that Nationalism has consequences."
I think that people who take this attitude are being selfish  and potentially wasteful of precious life-saving vaccines by upsetting the balance between supply and uptake of vaccines.This is particularly important due to storage conditions for the Pfizer vaccine.
I mentioned in my previous post that my daughter, a GP in Aberdeen, had her first jab today.
This afternoon she was on the phone to my wife and told her that since she had the jab she had received four other communications offering her jabs at different locations. Presumably they are looking for unvaccinated  health-care workers to make use of any leftovers.
The logistics are difficult enough without these time-wasters.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 07, 2021, 07:23:11 PM
I think if you turn down the vaccine for no good reason, they should put you to the back of the queue like they do with council houses (or is that social housing these PC days).
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on January 07, 2021, 10:23:23 PM
Yes - I don't get this vaccine choice thing at all. I'll take anything they give me.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 07, 2021, 10:27:05 PM
Seems the Oxford vaccine will be rolled out to GPs as it is much easier to transport and store, the fragile Pfizer one will be used at 'vaccination centres, care homes and hospitals where they can guarantee larger flow through or resident people needing vaccination.

As I said earlier, both my parents have had both jabs of the Pfizer vaccine at their local GP.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on January 08, 2021, 08:41:37 AM
I said earlier in this thread I would wait for Oxford jab, haven't changed my mind- nothing to do with nationalism just that adenovirus type vaccine is more traditional which suits me.
I’ve already said what I think about this and there’s no point in repeating it. If you’ve made a personal decision then that’s your choice, but I would urge you not to continue to repeat it. You are spreading disinformation which could result in someone else making a decision that has bad consequences for them.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: FredS on January 08, 2021, 10:35:20 AM
Bloke down Walthamstow market selling Oxford vaccinations 2 pounds each or 3 for a Pfizer
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 08, 2021, 11:44:34 AM
Well, I finally convinced OH to stop going in the shop and use click & collect at Morrison's. Roll up at the time booked, click the link in the message they send you, put in the last three letters of your car reg, and they come straight out and dump the bags in your boot.

Shopped yesterday evening, picked up early this morning. Plenty of slots available.

She's now a convert.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 08, 2021, 12:15:48 PM
This is good news. The Pfizer vaccine is effective against the H501Y mutation found in both new variants of the virus, as well as 15 further known mutations. Tests are continuing on the E484K mutation found in the SA variant, but the news is encouraging.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine/pfizer-biontech-vaccine-appears-effective-against-mutation-in-new-coronavirus-variants-study-idUSL1N2JI2LZ

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on January 08, 2021, 02:17:35 PM
The comedian Tom Walker in his character as Jonathan Pie has a video on his Youtube channel that I found cathartic. Very funny.  :D PS: You will hear several expletives, post watershed viewing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zx3DFXqxa8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zx3DFXqxa8)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 08, 2021, 02:28:02 PM
I see that the Moderna vaccine has now been approved, but there will be a delay until supplies are available (the US probably getting them all at the moment).
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 08, 2021, 03:24:21 PM
The comedian Tom Walker in his character as Jonathan Pie has a video on his Youtube channel that I found cathartic. Very funny.  :D PS: You will hear several expletives, post watershed viewing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zx3DFXqxa8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zx3DFXqxa8)
It would be funny in different cicumstances.
Never mind. His dad still thinks he's doing a good job.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-churchill-covid-ww2-b1784315.html

His dad also gets two doses of Pfizer vaccine straight away and blames his prominent nose for his failures to wear a mask.
Was it Stanley or Boris who said most of the public couldn't spell Pinnocchio?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9125463/Stanley-Johnson-reveals-second-Covid-jab-today.html

Edit It was Stanley
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/stanley-johnson-british-public-couldn-t-spell-pinocchio-if-they-tried-a4300491.html
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on January 08, 2021, 05:42:52 PM
@ JimSH. I'm not making light of the situation. Probably like a lot of people, I go through a range of emotions on the subject. I found a comedian having a rant cathartic at that time. Humour can help. Other times, satire can be out of place.

Newsnight 07-01-2021, forward to 41 minutes through the show, and Kirsty Wark refers to the number of Covid deaths so far. "78,508, very nearly enough to fill the Olympic stadium in 2012" - The programme then shows footage from the stadium. Arresting.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000r03h/newsnight-07012021 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000r03h/newsnight-07012021)

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 08, 2021, 06:26:47 PM
@ JimSH. I'm not making light of the situation. Probably like a lot of people, I go through a range of emotions on the subject. I found a comedian having a rant cathartic at that time. Humour can help. Other times, satire can be out of place.

Newsnight 07-01-2021, forward to 41 minutes through the show, and Kirsty Wark refers to the number of Covid deaths so far. "78,508, very nearly enough to fill the Olympic stadium in 2012" - The programme then shows footage from the stadium. Arresting.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000r03h/newsnight-07012021 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000r03h/newsnight-07012021)
No offence meant.
In fact the views expressed bythe comedian aren't so far away from what I feel.
John Crace expresses it a bit more eloquently
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/04/to-predict-government-policy-listen-to-boris-and-wait-for-the-opposite
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on January 08, 2021, 06:45:46 PM
No offence meant.
In fact the views expressed bythe comedian aren't so far away from what I feel.
John Crace expresses it a bit more eloquently
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/04/to-predict-government-policy-listen-to-boris-and-wait-for-the-opposite
None taken and none meant.  8)

Fan of John Crace. I try not to, but find I spend too much time in the Guardian/BBC bubble. I like what they say and there is no paywall.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on January 08, 2021, 07:41:35 PM
No offence meant.
In fact the views expressed bythe comedian aren't so far away from what I feel.
John Crace expresses it a bit more eloquently
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/04/to-predict-government-policy-listen-to-boris-and-wait-for-the-opposite
None taken and none meant.  8)

Fan of John Crace. I try not to, but find I spend too much time in the Guardian/BBC bubble. I like what they say and there is no paywall.

I try to read news written by people whom I disagree with.
Makes me think.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 08, 2021, 08:47:14 PM

Nobody seems to know where things stand with this at the moment, I hope I will be reassured by some of the results of these studies. I understand they are doing similar testing at Porton Down.

Yes I think they will be investigating it at Porton Down but I would imagine the South African research will be at a more advanced stage.

The longer it goes on the more mutations there will be, and it's like monkeys and typewriters, the more chance there will be of changes being significant.
Update. Seems it's going to take longer or perhaps these are more extensive tests.

"South African scientists are testing whether vaccines will be less effective against a Covid-19 variant first detected locally and hope for initial results within two weeks, a professor at the national communicable disease institute said."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/08/coronavirus-live-news-poorest-countries-to-get-vaccine-in-weeks-says-who-brazil-deaths-pass-200000?page=with:block-5ff893498f087f696cb3524b#block-5ff893498f087f696cb3524b
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 08, 2021, 10:20:20 PM
Newsnight 07-01-2021, forward to 41 minutes through the show, and Kirsty Wark refers to the number of Covid deaths so far. "78,508, very nearly enough to fill the Olympic stadium in 2012" - The programme then shows footage from the stadium. Arresting.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000r03h/newsnight-07012021 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000r03h/newsnight-07012021)

I sat and watched that last night, goggle eyed  :(
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 08, 2021, 10:44:31 PM
I try to read news written by people whom I disagree with.
Makes me think.

I always found Peter Hitchens interesting, and although I didn't agree with everything he had to say, I always regarded him as an intelligent fellow, if a bit of a professional contrarian. Not on the same intellectual level as his sadly departed brother, but there you go. Just lately though, I think he's completely lost his marbles and is constantly repeating wacky conspiracy stuff, mainly anti-lockdown.

He was on twitter earlier, asking for someone to explain why influenza figures this year have plummeted from 2019, illustrating with two graphs. It seems quite obvious to me that it's probably due to the distancing/masks/sanitising/lockdowns, but he just looking for a bite so he can then ask why covid is not being similarly suppressed (it's far more infectious, of course) and push his theory that all the influenza cases are being recorded as covid.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on January 09, 2021, 09:54:50 AM
I have heard that good advice before about reading who you disagree with. I do this occasionaly. It is interesting, and frankly sometimes scary! I read loads about B**X*T, and found I was reading right across the spectrum to get information. It is so easy to join a 'group/herd' and just run with them.

Peter Hitchins. He is a case in point. I have watched him debate, and read his stance re drug laws and reform. He is so very misinformed that it is shocking. He has an audience, but he is not enlightened on some subjects.

I was reading about Gordon Tullock the other day, and his steering wheel spike. This article relates it to Covid. Interesting and short read about the young.
https://www.econlib.org/tullocks-covid-spike/ (https://www.econlib.org/tullocks-covid-spike/)

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 09, 2021, 12:17:13 PM
I genuinely don't understand this latest push by the government to get people to stay at home.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/09/uk-covid-restrictions-may-be-too-lax-health-experts-warn

Quote
A government advertising campaign fronted by the UK’s chief medical adviser, Prof Chris Whitty, urges people to behave as if they have Covid-19 and “once more, stay home”, as hospitals across the country are getting close to capacity, particularly in London and the south-east, where in some areas as many as one in 20 people have the virus and the mayor, Sadiq Khan, has declared a state of emergency.

How exactly can people "behave as if they have Covid-19" when they are allowed to go to supermarkets, work, childcare and support bubbles, nurseries, etc.? If you did have covid, you would unable to do any of those things.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 09, 2021, 09:04:41 PM
This is worth watching, Professor Rupert Pearce at 6 min 33 onwards

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000qzyb/newsnight-08012021
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 09, 2021, 10:32:30 PM
We should have got straight back to the lockdown we had in March/April with all the restrictions, including all manufacturing and construction closed. The new strain is 50% more easily transmitted, so we need at least as strict a lockdown.
The police in Scotland are basically letting things slip at the Chief Constable Iain Livingstone's direction. He comes on to the Daily update and goes on about Engage - Explain - Encourage - Enforce. Everyone, even the biggest Numpty here in Scotland (and there are thousands), knows the rules and neither needs explanation or encouragement. They should Engage and Enforce. Since the pandemic started, they have Engaged 100,000 times and issued 7,000 fines. 7%. That is not good enough. You have more chance of getting done for speeding (not really). Mamby-pamby policing is the reason people ignore the rules here in Scotland.
I also think masks should have to be worn at all times in public. Let's face it, it is a freezing winter, and a mask actually helps to keep you warmer. Even a scarf over the face as many ladies do in winter anyway. Maybe not ideal in summer but no hardship at this time of the year.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 09, 2021, 11:04:14 PM
I genuinely don't understand this latest push by the government to get people to stay at home.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/09/uk-covid-restrictions-may-be-too-lax-health-experts-warn

Quote
A government advertising campaign fronted by the UK’s chief medical adviser, Prof Chris Whitty, urges people to behave as if they have Covid-19 and “once more, stay home”, as hospitals across the country are getting close to capacity, particularly in London and the south-east, where in some areas as many as one in 20 people have the virus and the mayor, Sadiq Khan, has declared a state of emergency.

How exactly can people "behave as if they have Covid-19" when they are allowed to go to supermarkets, work, childcare and support bubbles, nurseries, etc.? If you did have covid, you would unable to do any of those things.

I think it's meant to mean :- behave as if you have it asymptomatically (which you just might) and take precautions such that you don't pass it on to others.
I don't think Chris Whitty has the ideal personality to front a campaign like this either.
Could they not have Pam Ayres do something more like the old Cyril Fletcher public health inforformation films?
https://monologues.co.uk/Public_Information/Gertie.htm
https://monologues.co.uk/Public_Information/Careless_Sneezer.htm

Or perhaps Rufus Hound?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 09, 2021, 11:13:36 PM
I think it's meant to mean :- behave as if you have it asymptomatically (which you just might) and take precautions such that you don't pass it on to others.

I'm sure you're right, but it's just another confusing message. People are going to think "I can't do that", and so consequently will think "sod it."
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 09, 2021, 11:27:04 PM
I think it's meant to mean :- behave as if you have it asymptomatically (which you just might) and take precautions such that you don't pass it on to others.

I'm sure you're right, but it's just another confusing message. People are going to think "I can't do that", and so consequently will think "sod it."
Quite agree.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on January 10, 2021, 12:24:58 AM
WeMamby-pamby policing is the reason people ignore the rules here in Scotland.

I don’t believe in fines. I think the offenders should be given a 'Go to the back of the vaccine queue' card, which also sends them to the back of the queue for COVID care.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on January 10, 2021, 02:17:40 PM
WeMamby-pamby policing is the reason people ignore the rules here in Scotland.

I don’t believe in fines. I think the offenders should be given a 'Go to the back of the vaccine queue' card, which also sends them to the back of the queue for COVID care.

I agree 100%.

And "the back of the queue " means anyone  unwell - who has not broken the rules  and is added to the queue after you are at the back" automatically gets in front of you.

So teh VERY LAST people treated are those who break the rules.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: BIGFELLAH on January 10, 2021, 02:38:36 PM
WeMamby-pamby policing is the reason people ignore the rules here in Scotland.

I don’t believe in fines. I think the offenders should be given a 'Go to the back of the vaccine queue' card, which also sends them to the back of the queue for COVID care
And "the back of the queue " means anyone  unwell - who has not broken the rules  and is added to the queue after you are at the back" automatically gets in front of you.

So teh VERY LAST people treated are those who break the rules.
I agree 100%.

Well said also perhaps whilst they are at the back of the queue, to save  them any boredom, perhaps a stint working  unpaid as a hospital porter shifting people with Covid19 this would focus there concentration  to the affect that the rules do apply to them as well and not just to other people.
Especially those who deny the existence of this Covid19 Virus should be made forcefully to volunteer to be educated and given a daily tour of hospitals where people are working tremendously long hours to nurse patients with this vicious bloody virus it might just sink in to there brain just how people are suffering from  family losses and heartbreak for losing loved ones and in many instances meaning living every day sad and lonely.I can not think of anything more Sad.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on January 10, 2021, 03:09:02 PM
WeMamby-pamby policing is the reason people ignore the rules here in Scotland.

I don’t believe in fines. I think the offenders should be given a 'Go to the back of the vaccine queue' card, which also sends them to the back of the queue for COVID care
And "the back of the queue " means anyone  unwell - who has not broken the rules  and is added to the queue after you are at the back" automatically gets in front of you.

So teh VERY LAST people treated are those who break the rules.
I agree 100%.

Well said also perhaps whilst they are at the back of the queue, to save  them any boredom, perhaps a stint working  unpaid as a hospital porter shifting people with Covid19 this would focus there concentration  to the affect that the rules do apply to them as well and not just to other people.
Especially those who deny the existence of this Covid19 Virus should be made forcefully to volunteer to be educated and given a daily tour of hospitals where people are working tremendously long hours to nurse patients with this vicious bloody virus it might just sink in to there brain just how people are suffering from  family losses and heartbreak for losing loved ones and in many instances meaning living every day sad and lonely.I can not think of anything more Sad.

Even better.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 10, 2021, 03:12:41 PM
WeMamby-pamby policing is the reason people ignore the rules here in Scotland.

I don’t believe in fines. I think the offenders should be given a 'Go to the back of the vaccine queue' card, which also sends them to the back of the queue for COVID care.

But would that act as a deterrent for people who are happy to break lockdown rules? They obviously don't think that they are at risk anyway.

A compulsory stint in a covid ward sounds more appealing, they shouldn't have a problem with that if they believe that the virus doesn't exist, or that they are invulnerable to it.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on January 10, 2021, 03:17:10 PM
WeMamby-pamby policing is the reason people ignore the rules here in Scotland.

I don’t believe in fines. I think the offenders should be given a 'Go to the back of the vaccine queue' card, which also sends them to the back of the queue for COVID care.

But would that act as a deterrent for people who are happy to break lockdown rules? They obviously don't think that they are at risk anyway.

A compulsory stint in a covid ward sounds more appealing, they shouldn't have a problem with that if they believe that the virus doesn't exist, or that they are invulnerable to it.

So long as we don’t have to waste PPE on them as well. Which of course they shouldn’t need if it doesn’t exist.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 10, 2021, 03:53:27 PM

Well said also perhaps whilst they are at the back of the queue, to save  them any boredom, perhaps a stint working  unpaid as a hospital porter shifting people with Covid19 this would focus there concentration  to the affect that the rules do apply to them as well and not just to other people.
Especially those who deny the existence of this Covid19 Virus should be made forcefully to volunteer to be educated and given a daily tour of hospitals where people are working tremendously long hours to nurse patients with this vicious bloody virus it might just sink in to there brain just how people are suffering from  family losses and heartbreak for losing loved ones and in many instances meaning living every day sad and lonely.I can not think of anything more Sad.
At first glance that seems a good idea, making the punishment fit the crime but on consideration, these people, particularly the Covid deniers, would be the last people who should be allowed in a covid ward since they would be the most likely to take the disease out with them and spread it around the community.
That's the main problem with their selfish actions -they don't just affect themselves but everybody else as well.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 10, 2021, 04:27:27 PM
The really long term sufferers of Covid - the children.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/10/the-observer-view-on-the-governments-lack-of-a-plan-for-pupils-in-pandemic
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: BIGFELLAH on January 10, 2021, 04:42:45 PM

Well said also perhaps whilst they are at the back of the queue, to save  them any boredom, perhaps a stint working  unpaid as a hospital porter shifting people with Covid19 this would focus there concentration  to the affect that the rules do apply to them as well and not just to other people.
Especially those who deny the existence of this Covid19 Virus should be made forcefully to volunteer to be educated and given a daily tour of hospitals where people are working tremendously long hours to nurse patients with this vicious bloody virus it might just sink in to there brain just how people are suffering from  family losses and heartbreak for losing loved ones and in many instances meaning living every day sad and lonely.I can not think of anything more Sad.
At first glance that seems a good idea, making the punishment fit the crime but on consideration, these people, particularly the Covid deniers, would be the last people who should be allowed in a covid ward since they would be the most likely to take the disease out with them and spread it around the community.
That's the main problem with their selfish actions -they don't just affect themselves but everybody else as well.

Yes of course you are. correct in that assumption however a continues daily tour for a very long time along with compulsory quarantine  each and every day following  each other will imbed the seriousness of the situation  and possibly who knows they may in fact meet Covid19 personally and then made to pay for the treatment etc very harsh you may say but in times gone by this would be considered an eye for an eye. Very satisfactory conclusion and then a miraculous change of mind to one and all deniers. As Del Boy would say Lovely Jubbley
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 10, 2021, 04:55:43 PM
At first glance that seems a good idea, making the punishment fit the crime but on consideration, these people, particularly the Covid deniers, would be the last people who should be allowed in a covid ward since they would be the most likely to take the disease out with them and spread it around the community.

Ooh no, you don't let them go home!  ;)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 10, 2021, 06:52:13 PM
I think virus deniers should be sectioned, simple as that. What we do with the rule breakers is a bigger problem.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on January 10, 2021, 08:40:22 PM
I think virus deniers should be sectioned, simple as that. What we do with the rule breakers is a bigger problem.
Fortnightly 100 mile round trip to mother in law (our care bubble) and the roads around Leeds and Wetherby were dead, so that’s good news.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Bazzzer on January 10, 2021, 09:00:36 PM
... and Kirsty Wark refers to the number of Covid deaths so far. "78,508, very nearly enough to fill the Olympic stadium in 2012"

Their usual unit of measurement is Olympic size swimming pools.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 10, 2021, 10:20:58 PM
Fortnightly 100 mile round trip to mother in law (our care bubble) and the roads around Leeds and Wetherby were dead, so that’s good news.
I had a 100-mile trip today searching pharmacies for meds for my mother-in-law, and the roads up here are as busy as normal. I had two trips through Edinburgh city centre, and you wouldn't believe it was a January Sunday. The trip over at 09:30 was fairly quiet but returning about 14:00, and the motorways were as busy as always. But as I said earlier, Police Scotland are doing little in the way of enforcement, so nobody cares.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 10, 2021, 10:45:11 PM
When OH went down to Morrison's for the shopping the other day, she said that she was surprised how busy the roads were.

Then again, I guess you have to expect it, most work around here is manual and people have to go to work. There's lots of other stuff open that wasn't open during the first lockdown - It was like a ghost town back then.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 11, 2021, 07:46:39 AM
Here we go.
Spot the difference.

In the UK, ministers appear to have downgraded their promise to vaccinate the most vulnerable by mid-February, committing only to offering them an inoculation by that point.

The prime minister Boris Johnson said last week that they would have received their first jab by that date – and that daily figures for vaccinations carried out would be published from this week.

But, speaking to Sky News, the UK’s vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi has said:

The top four categories, actually, for the UK is 15 million people, in England it’s about 12 million people, so we will have offered a vaccination to all of those people.
Pressed on the difference between being offered a jab and being vaccinated, he said:

When you offer a vaccination it doesn’t mean a Royal Mail letter, it means the vaccine and the needle and the jab are ready for you. What you will see us publishing is the total numbers of people being vaccinated, not being offered a vaccine, and that’s the number to hold us to account to.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/11/coronavirus-live-news-new-york-opens-mass-vaccination-sites-as-global-cases-pass-90m?page=with:block-5ffbfdd18f086b9a461f7e3f#block-5ffbfdd18f086b9a461f7e3f

7.36
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 11, 2021, 12:27:46 PM
I think when my Civic goes in for service next month I'll not pursue the Crosstar test drive until I've had a jab and the 3 to 4 weeks whilst it takes effect.

Maybe look at a Sep registration. By then I should know the MY21 [improvements or kit removal]
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 12, 2021, 06:59:53 AM
Interesting article in this morning's news. Since the start of the pandemic, the Met has issued less than 1,000 fixed penalty notices to "refuseniks" (like that word, The Times uses it in one of today's headlines). In Scotland, with their namby-pamby approach to policing, over 7,000 fines have been issued. This may go some way to explain why infections are so high in England.

With regards to Boris on his bike, what a load of twaddle over nothing. "Local" (no actual definition is given), is different for walkers and cyclists. 7 miles is local for a cyclist but getting in a car to drive there then walking is not. I regularly see loads of cyclists out and about on the roads around here, and unless they all live in remote farm cottages, they are all well over 7 miles from home.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 12, 2021, 07:43:59 AM
Can't agree more.

When they detect a 'rave' or similar they are the ones where the whole shooting match should be surrounded and all attendees heavily fined.

I'd also like to see more Police randomly boarding buses and fining non mask wearers.

I've just been out and about 1/3 of the upper decks have no mask or using them as chin warmers.

There is no deterent
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 12, 2021, 08:19:47 AM
Morrisons and Sainbury's are going to be enforcing mask-wearing with security on the door. My local Morrisons have a security guard on the door, and I don't mean a weedy retired gent with an ill-fitting uniform. The guys here are furloughed nightclub bouncers with stab vests and mean looks!

Went into Asda on Sunday and a staff member was handing out masks to people who didn't have one. A BAME shopper ahead of me just refused to wear one, and I was about to call him out when I realised that if I did, I would be the one that got done for racial prejudice or the like.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 12, 2021, 08:50:32 AM


With regards to Boris on his bike, what a load of twaddle over nothing. "Local" (no actual definition is given), is different for walkers and cyclists. 7 miles is local for a cyclist but getting in a car to drive there then walking is not.

Depends if he cycled to the Olympic Park or was driven there.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinS on January 12, 2021, 09:12:26 AM
email received from Sainsbury's Chief Executive Simon Roberts:
Quote
I have spent a lot of time in our stores over the past few days and I need to ask for your help with two key issues to keep you and all my colleagues safe.
When shopping in our stores, you must wear a mask or visor unless you have a medical exemption. And you should also shop on your own. Thank you for your support.
Security guards will support our colleagues at the front of store and will challenge customers who are not wearing masks or who are shopping in groups. I know you’ll understand and support what we are trying to do.
We have also significantly reduced the number of customers allowed in our stores at any one time to ensure social distancing is maintained at all times.
Together, these steps will go a long way to keep everyone safe, whether you are shopping or working with us.
Please wear a mask or visor and please shop alone in our stores. Thank you for helping us to keep everyone safe.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 12, 2021, 09:54:27 AM
Does it count if you cycle there but have a Range Rover ahead of you and another behind you?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 12, 2021, 11:37:41 AM
I think you can go overboard on rules.
The main issue is to avoid human contact. If everybody remembered that and strove towards it rather than looked for ways to get round the rules there would be less transmission.
The more rules there are the more they are open to interpretation and misinterpretation by both public and police.
Education is more important than enforcement and punishment.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 12, 2021, 12:00:24 PM
I find this site useful to keep abreast of where it is:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

Unfortunately it's rife round me so I stay in.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 12, 2021, 12:01:18 PM
With regards to Boris on his bike, what a load of twaddle over nothing. "Local" (no actual definition is given), is different for walkers and cyclists. 7 miles is local for a cyclist but getting in a car to drive there then walking is not.

Depends if he cycled to the Olympic Park or was driven there.

Downing Street is still refusing to confirm or deny that he drove or was driven there, as well as his security detail.

We're all grown ups, we should be able to give people a set of simple rules and trust their judgement. If someone is caught breaking the rules, they should be warned, and fined for a repeat offence, or refusal to comply.

However, those writing and enforcing these rules must be whiter than white, and somebody in Johnson's position should set an example, otherwise people will not take any of it seriously.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Basil on January 12, 2021, 12:38:37 PM
In Wales the rule is clear, you can exercise as often as you like as long as the exercise starts and finishes at home, so no driving somewhere to exercise.

What is the rule in England now, is it just 'stay local' to exercise ?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 12, 2021, 12:42:27 PM
What is the rule in England now, is it just 'stay local' to exercise ?

Depends if you are a Government minister or not.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 12, 2021, 01:22:26 PM
Met Police saying they would like to get tougher but the rules are confusing, they can't understand them.

Pritti Patel has a briefing later, wonder if she is to give more clear guidance.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 12, 2021, 01:35:54 PM
Met Police saying they would like to get tougher but the rules are confusing, they can't understand them.

Pritti Patel has a briefing later, wonder if she is to give more clear guidance.

Deportation ?
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 12, 2021, 02:30:15 PM
Pritti Patel has a briefing later, wonder if she is to give more clear guidance.

Another outing for the box then!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 12, 2021, 02:43:04 PM
Learned today that my niece has got it.

She's a ward sister at a hospital dealing with significant numbers of covid patients.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on January 12, 2021, 02:46:55 PM
Met Police saying they would like to get tougher but the rules are confusing, they can't understand them.

Pritti Patel has a briefing later, wonder if she is to give more clear guidance.

Typical.
Announce rules. Tick.
Change them as you go along. Tick
Blame the public for not adhering to them . Tick
Clarify them and change them again. Tick
Blame the public for not  obeying them. Tick
Ignore any breaches by Government members as "an honest misunderstanding". Tick


Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinS on January 12, 2021, 02:50:31 PM
Pritti Patel has a briefing later.

I can't wait.  I've got a lot of time for her.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on January 12, 2021, 03:26:16 PM
Downing Street is still refusing to confirm or deny that he drove or was driven there, as well as his security detail.

I would think it highly unlikely that Downing Street will give any details on how Boris gets from here to there, whether it be by bike or Special Branch car.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 12, 2021, 03:35:11 PM
Learned today that my niece has got it.

She's a ward sister at a hospital dealing with significant numbers of covid patients.


Hope she recovers without any ongoing problems
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on January 12, 2021, 04:18:39 PM
Learned today that my niece has got it.

She's a ward sister at a hospital dealing with significant numbers of covid patients.
Thoughts are with you and yours. Hope it all goes ok with a speedy recovery.

I was reading about supermarket employees. I worked part time in a supermarket as a teenager in the 80's, and some customers were rude bast***s then, I can only imagine what it would be like now. Add to the mix, that they could be carrying Covid  :o scary
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55623289 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55623289)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 12, 2021, 06:04:32 PM
Watched Pritti Patel and I have never heard anyone, even a politician, prevaricate as much as she did. She never answered a question. Regards the rules not being strict enough she deaf eared three journalists and a member of the public who all asked the same question. I take it Downing Street is waiting to see what Nicola introduces tomorrow, before following suit.

Earlier I quoted a number for Police in England issuing fixed penalty notices. The number I quoted referred to the Met. I'll change the original post.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 12, 2021, 06:45:40 PM
Learned today that my niece has got it.

She's a ward sister at a hospital dealing with significant numbers of covid patients.
Sorry to hear that. Hope she makes a full recovery.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 12, 2021, 06:48:00 PM
My sentiments, as well.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 12, 2021, 07:01:26 PM
Thanks for the good wishes folks. She's feeling rough, but at home.

I was reading about supermarket employees. I worked part time in a supermarket as a teenager in the 80's, and some customers were rude bast***s then, I can only imagine what it would be like now.

It doesn't help when the Police make statements saying that they will not intervene in policing masks in shops. Whilst it's strictly speaking a civil matter until there is a disturbance or assault, it sends the wrong signal.

Some people are truly horrible. A couple of years ago, I had a right go at somebody in a supermarket who was shouting aggressively at one of the female assistants, they're not so keen at facing up a big hairy bloke. He just pushed all my buttons, I just thought I wouldn't want one of my family treated like that. There were only a few people in the shop, but nobody else intervened.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 12, 2021, 07:59:05 PM
Watched Pritti Patel and I have never heard anyone, even a politician, prevaricate as much as she did. She never answered a question. Regards the rules not being strict enough she deaf eared three journalists and a member of the public who all asked the same question. I take it Downing Street is waiting to see what Nicola introduces tomorrow, before following suit.
"Ms Patel was asked the same question three times. If the new variant is more contagious, why are the rules of this lockdown less strict than the last one. She was asked it first by a member of the public, then asked it again by Mark Easton, one of the BBC’s most senior journalists, and a third time by ITV News. She was asked it three times, partly because it is such a blindingly obvious question, and partly because at no point did she make any attempt to answer it."


Pritti Patel has a briefing later, wonder if she is to give more clear guidance.

Deportation ?
The British Covid-19 variant can’t be deported, so Priti Patel has sent us all home instead
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/covid-variant-priti-patel-press-conference-b1786210.html
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on January 13, 2021, 09:57:30 AM
It doesn't help when the Police make statements saying that they will not intervene in policing masks in shops. Whilst it's strictly speaking a civil matter until there is a disturbance or assault, it sends the wrong signal.

Some people are truly horrible. A couple of years ago, I had a right go at somebody in a supermarket who was shouting aggressively at one of the female assistants, they're not so keen at facing up a big hairy bloke. He just pushed all my buttons, I just thought I wouldn't want one of my family treated like that. There were only a few people in the shop, but nobody else intervened.

I understand that some out of work SIA proper bouncers are now being employed to enforce compliance at supermarkets. Shouldn't have to, but there we are. I always say "hi" and "how you doing?" to the staff on the way in. Mostly I am met with genuine shock that a member of the public has behaved normally!  :D

Well done for confronting someone. Sometimes these things have to be done. I know that some people are having a real hard time at the moment, but, the staff member stacking the shelf or putting your stuff through the till deserves to be treated with utmost respect. Even more so given they are putting their own health on the line due to covid.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 13, 2021, 10:14:13 AM
I always say "hi" and "how you doing?" to the staff on the way in. Mostly I am met with genuine shock that a member of the public has behaved normally!  :D

As the saying goes, "Civility costs nothing, and buys everything." There's no better reward than a smile in return, or in these troubled times, a pair of smiling eyes  ;)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 13, 2021, 10:31:27 AM
I always speak to shop assistants, people I pass in the street, posties, traffic wardens, you name it. My wife says I will talk to anyone, particularly the ladies, but it is just my nature. Probably the reason I post so much on here.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 13, 2021, 11:36:07 AM
I like Van Tam's new analogy on not relaxing and relying on the vaccination programme.
Jonathan Van-Tam told LBC: “We are in a very dangerous place now. We talked a lot about vaccines — in the end they are a good news story.

“But this is like saying I’m building a big perimeter fence around my property so that the baddies can’t get in. But you can’t celebrate that when you’ve put three posts in and two sections of fencing — or maybe a bit more in the case of the NHS so far. "
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 13, 2021, 01:00:40 PM
Latest click and collect rules for Scotland only allow shops selling clothes, shoes, baby wear, household items and books to open. Not much else that you buy on click and collect.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: richardfrost on January 13, 2021, 01:05:56 PM
Latest click and collect rules for Scotland only allow shops selling clothes, shoes, baby wear, household items and books to open. Not much else that you buy on click and collect.

Well my son has been furloughed from Topps Tiles but they remain open with a skeleton staff so people can click and collect tiles and grout. How these are essential items for regular consumers I have no idea. I can understand for tradespeople but not the general public. He is happy to be furloughed and away from the ignorant non mask wearing customers who still want to browse and buy on impulse!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 13, 2021, 01:06:35 PM
Latest click and collect rules for Scotland only allow shops selling clothes, shoes, baby wear, household items and books to open. Not much else that you buy on click and collect.

It'll slow Argos down a bit.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 13, 2021, 01:20:44 PM
The rule says "shops selling", not that they are only allowed to sell them. So more loopholes for business to do what they want.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on January 13, 2021, 03:11:24 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55639096?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020210113%20%20House%20Ads%20%20SM+CID_5f30d4dc8c14708ab0976569a8832507
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 13, 2021, 03:16:08 PM
The rule says "shops selling", not that they are only allowed to sell them. So more loopholes for business to do what they want.

Not much point to that then  ???

Watched Pritti Patel and I have never heard anyone, even a politician, prevaricate as much as she did. She never answered a question. Regards the rules not being strict enough she deaf eared three journalists and a member of the public who all asked the same question.


...and word of the day today, from Susie Dent on twitter...

Quote
Word of the day is ‘circumlocutionist’: one who consistently speaks in a roundabout way in order to avoid addressing a question directly.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on January 13, 2021, 03:30:36 PM
I always speak to shop assistants, people I pass in the street, posties, traffic wardens, you name it. My wife says I will talk to anyone, particularly the ladies, but it is just my nature. Probably the reason I post so much on here.
Agreed Even though we live in the suburbs, I know our posties, bin guys, most neighbours and such. Every shop, fuel station or wherever, always say 'Hi' and have a smile. Costs me nowt, and I know it makes a difference. Even if I'm having a bad day, I don't need to pass that on to other people.

As sparkPaul says "a pair of smiling eyes" have you noticed how lovely some eyes are! ;D Almost be a shame when they are gone. Mind you, I certainly won't miss the litter of face masks being dropped all over the place.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 13, 2021, 04:56:39 PM
Vaccine tracker:

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-vaccination-tracker-find-out-how-many-have-had-the-jab-12179220
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on January 13, 2021, 05:04:47 PM
Deaths doubling every two  weeks https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

We'll see around 100,000 deaths before end January...
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 13, 2021, 05:12:10 PM
have you noticed how lovely some eyes are!
For many years I worked in a semiconductor clean room, and we all had to wear full clean gear, including masks. I discovered then just how beautiful eyes are. When that is all you have to concentrate on, you realise just how much they sparkle. Two girls in particular, who worked on my sputter line, one had emerald green eyes and the other violet eyes. Unless you are in a relationship with someone, you seldom notice another person's eye colour.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 13, 2021, 07:57:18 PM
What have I started here?  ;D
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 13, 2021, 08:10:19 PM
Deaths doubling every two  weeks https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

We'll see around 100,000 deaths before end January...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/13/uk-coronavirus-deaths-pass-100000
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on January 13, 2021, 08:49:05 PM
The Guardian quotes death totals for the UK which are NOT official and are therefore fake news as far as I am concerned.

(And then they rant about Trump and his fake news)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 13, 2021, 08:53:49 PM
The Guardian quotes death totals for the UK which are NOT official and are therefore fake news as far as I am concerned.

(And then they rant about Trump and his fake news)
"There have been 93,418 coronavirus deaths recorded by statistical agencies, based on those with Covid on the death certificate, from the beginning of the pandemic up to 10 January, and a further 7,742 deaths since, according to figures published by the government based on deaths within 28 days of a positive test for the virus.
The way coronavirus deaths in the UK are counted has changed since the beginning of the pandemic. While statistical agencies count deaths where Covid-19 is noted on the death certificate, the government figures released each day count fatalities within 28 days of a positive test. The Guardian analyses the data from both sources to achieve the most up-to-date fatality count possible."

As near 100000 as damnit as far as I'm concerned.
There's a great difference between rounding off and Trump's type of fake news.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on January 14, 2021, 07:34:04 AM
There is no absolutely correct number of deaths because counting them is not easy. The 28 day criterion is arbitrary, and means that (eg) someone who has a fatal car crash 2 weeks after a positive Covid test would be included, but someone who passed away gasping for breath in an ICU 29 days after their positive test wouldn’t. Chasing numbers like “100,000 deaths” is simply a morbid desire to create newspaper circulation through lurid headlines. The only way you can really use the various statistics is to monitor progress in fighting the pandemic by ensuring you always measure consistently and then understand that the important things are the rates of change and not the absolute numbers.

Whether the total number of deaths to date is 85,000 or 100,000 is pretty irrelevant: whichever number you choose to believe, it’s obscene and one of the worst in the world. That represents a dismal failure on the part of this government (and its predecessors who ran down the NHS to the point where it was stretched too thinly) to protect its citizens.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 14, 2021, 09:12:29 AM
Just wondering what's going to happen when the 15 million "most vulnerable" have been vaccinated.
The government will be under pressure to release restrictions and are likely to do this too quickly as before.
Many of the "less vulnerable" have felt for a long time (or have been encouraged to feel) that they have been giving up their freedom to protect the "more vulnerable".
I can foresee another massive free for all cockup in the making.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on January 14, 2021, 10:02:19 AM
Just wondering what's going to happen when the 15 million "most vulnerable" have been vaccinated.
The government will be under pressure to release restrictions and are likely to do this too quickly as before.
Many of the "less vulnerable" have felt for a long time (or have been encouraged to feel) that they have been giving up their freedom to protect the "more vulnerable".
I can foresee another massive free for all cockup in the making.

1. Was chatting to a neighbour a couple of days ago (from an anti-social distance, of course) who was gleeful at having just received his second jab. His attitude was "I'm OK now, I'm going to go out to enjoy myself".
2. BBC R4 reporting this morning that travel companies are experiencing a boom in over-50's booking holidays for later this year, safe in the knowledge that they'll have been vaccinated and are therefore OK.

This attitude is understandable, but ignores the fact that even after vaccination you can still catch Covid (albeit mildly) and you can still spread it. Just wait until BoJo starts trying to clamp down on those who have been vaccinated because the infections start going up again amongst those who haven't!
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: peteo48 on January 14, 2021, 10:56:15 AM
The answer, alongside vaccination, is a viable trace, test and isolate programme rather than lockdowns. Don't get me wrong, this lockdown was necessary but only because we don't have a working trace test and isolate programme.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on January 14, 2021, 11:02:46 AM
Just wondering what's going to happen when the 15 million "most vulnerable" have been vaccinated.
The government will be under pressure to release restrictions and are likely to do this too quickly as before.
Many of the "less vulnerable" have felt for a long time (or have been encouraged to feel) that they have been giving up their freedom to protect the "more vulnerable".
I can foresee another massive free for all cockup in the making.

1. Was chatting to a neighbour a couple of days ago (from an anti-social distance, of course) who was gleeful at having just received his second jab. His attitude was "I'm OK now, I'm going to go out to enjoy myself".
2. BBC R4 reporting this morning that travel companies are experiencing a boom in over-50's booking holidays for later this year, safe in the knowledge that they'll have been vaccinated and are therefore OK.

This attitude is understandable, but ignores the fact that even after vaccination you can still catch Covid (albeit mildly) and you can still spread it. Just wait until BoJo starts trying to clamp down on those who have been vaccinated because the infections start going up again amongst those who haven't!

That's the trouble - people queuing up for jabs and then they will be zooming off everywhere and heaven help anyone who crosses their path, next thing is they will be saying 'I have had the jab so don't need to wear a mask'.  The more you see of people the more sensible animals seem......

The reason UK hit so badly ( this was a quote from WHO way back in March ) 'UK has lots of sick and unhealthy people who have been kept alive by NHS, they should expect large numbers of Covid deaths'...
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 14, 2021, 11:37:40 AM
Just wondering what's going to happen when the 15 million "most vulnerable" have been vaccinated.
The government will be under pressure to release restrictions and are likely to do this too quickly as before.
Many of the "less vulnerable" have felt for a long time (or have been encouraged to feel) that they have been giving up their freedom to protect the "more vulnerable".
I can foresee another massive free for all cockup in the making.

1. Was chatting to a neighbour a couple of days ago (from an anti-social distance, of course) who was gleeful at having just received his second jab. His attitude was "I'm OK now, I'm going to go out to enjoy myself".
2. BBC R4 reporting this morning that travel companies are experiencing a boom in over-50's booking holidays for later this year, safe in the knowledge that they'll have been vaccinated and are therefore OK.


Yes. There's going to be complacency all round and an upsurge in flying.

The reason UK hit so badly ( this was a quote from WHO way back in March ) 'UK has lots of sick and unhealthy people who have been kept alive by NHS, they should expect large numbers of Covid deaths'...
The reason the Uk has been hit so badly has been the inept, short-sighted handling by the government -
in particular their applying restrictions too late, lifting restrictions too soon, reluctance to restrict flights or apply quarantine or enforce self isolation and their inability to impose a working test,track and isolate system.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: culzean on January 14, 2021, 12:28:36 PM


The reason UK hit so badly ( this was a quote from WHO way back in March ) 'UK has lots of sick and unhealthy people who have been kept alive by NHS, they should expect large numbers of Covid deaths'...
The reason the Uk has been hit so badly has been the inept, short-sighted handling by the government -
in particular their reluctance to restrict flights or apply quarantine or enforce self isolation and their inability to impose a working test,track and isolate system.

Average age of UK victim is 82 with two or more co-morbidities, average life expectancy in UK is about 80 even in good times.  Obesity is probably the biggest risk factor,  followed by age and other pre-existing conditions, bad news is that the effectiveness of vaccine is reduced in obese people.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/26/obesity-increases-risk-of-covid-19-death-by-48-study-finds

Unfortunate consequence of healthcare free at point of use is that too many people do not take enough care of their health...
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 14, 2021, 03:02:47 PM
bad news is that the effectiveness of vaccine is reduced in obese people.
The link actually says "may make vaccines against the disease less effective,"
Bold italics mine.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on January 14, 2021, 03:45:05 PM
The front page of the Guardian has seven photos of regular day to day people that have died. It's like looking in a mirror. Massive numbers are meaningless, or are rather hard to comprehend, but a few people and it is much more relatable.

Middle of the month will soon be with us. Optomist as I am, this brings us nearer to spring and the possibility of an improving situation.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 14, 2021, 04:30:04 PM
Quote
Airlines, workplaces and sports stadiums may soon require people to show their coronavirus vaccination status on their smartphones before they can enter.

A coalition of leading technology companies, health organizations and nonprofit groups — including Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, Cerner, Epic Systems, the Mitre Corporation and the Mayo Clinic — announced on Thursday morning that they were developing technology standards to enable consumers to obtain and share their immunization records through health passport apps.

“For some period of time, most all of us are going to have to demonstrate either negative Covid-19 testing or an up-to-date vaccination status to go about the normal routines of our lives,” said Dr. Brad Perkins, the chief medical officer at the Commons Project Foundation, a nonprofit organization in Geneva that is a member of the vaccine credential initiative.

That will happen, Dr. Perkins added, “whether it’s getting on an airplane and going to a different country, whether it’s going to work, to school, to the grocery store, to live concerts or sporting events.”
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 14, 2021, 04:58:22 PM
average life expectancy in UK is about 80 even in good times

Yes, but that's from birth - meaningless when talking about someone that's already reached the age of 80, it's like saying that you've had your innings.

Statistically, an 80 year old would be expected to live another 10 years, with a 1 in 10 chance that a male would live to 96, or 98 if you are female.

From birth, you have a 1 in 10 chance of not reaching pension age.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 14, 2021, 05:29:04 PM
From birth, you have a 1 in 10 chance of not reaching pension age.
Pete, one of the van drivers I used to work with was about 8 months from retiring. Because I was already retired, he would ask me questions about applying for the pension, how much, National Insurance and the like.
One night, he went home, sat down in front of the telly, had a massive stroke, and died.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 14, 2021, 05:57:36 PM
On the .gov coronavirus website now,

"Due to an issue with the processing of deaths data, the update for 14 January 2021 is delayed."

Roughly translated - Today's numbers are grim and we've decided there's too many. Stand by while we shuffle them about and spread them over a few days, like we did in the first peak.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 14, 2021, 07:02:19 PM
Scotland reported 64 deaths today.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 14, 2021, 07:50:41 PM
On the .gov coronavirus website now,

"Due to an issue with the processing of deaths data, the update for 14 January 2021 is delayed."

Roughly translated - Today's numbers are grim and we've decided there's too many. Stand by while we shuffle them about and spread them over a few days, like we did in the first peak.

Regulator refuses to approve mass Covid testing at schools in England

Boris Johnson’s plans to test millions of schoolchildren for coronavirus every week appear to be in disarray after the UK regulator refused to formally approve the daily testing of pupils in England.
The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) told the government on Tuesday it had not authorised the daily use of 30-minute tests due to concerns that they give people false reassurance if they test negative.
This could lead to pupils staying in school and potentially spreading the virus when they should be self-isolating.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/14/regulator-refuses-to-approve-mass-covid-testing-schools-in-england

Roughly translated -
Hancock sitting with millions of unsuitable tests fast approaching their expiry date?

Adam Finn, a professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol, has made a similar point, saying LFTs are “red light tests” not “green light tests”, meaning that testing negative does not mean a person can behave as if they are virus-free.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/14/experts-remain-divided-mass-covid-tests-schools

Edit changed "unreliable" to "unsuitable"
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 15, 2021, 05:03:55 AM
Infections and deaths in care homes taking off again according to todays front pages.

I thought they had care homes sorted
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: madasafish on January 15, 2021, 10:18:25 AM
Infections and deaths in care homes taking off again according to todays front pages.

I thought they had care homes sorted

"The new figures come after The Telegraph revealed that the Government is proposing to send hospital patients into care homes without tests despite being warned that was responsible for driving up cases in the first wave."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/14/shocking-care-home-covid-outbreaks-match-levels-peak-first-wave/
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 15, 2021, 10:46:16 AM
These are care homes that have separate sections for recovering Covid patients. Patients who have had the virus and are getting over it but need time to recover. That way, they can free up hospital beds for seriously sick and dying.
The care homes want to take them, but their insurers will not cover them in case of legal action.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: ColinB on January 15, 2021, 10:48:15 AM
Infections and deaths in care homes taking off again according to todays front pages.

I thought they had care homes sorted

"The new figures come after The Telegraph revealed that the Government is proposing to send hospital patients into care homes without tests despite being warned that was responsible for driving up cases in the first wave."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/14/shocking-care-home-covid-outbreaks-match-levels-peak-first-wave/

Can't read the article because of the paywall, BUT:
- First line that's visible says "Outbreaks of Covid-19 in care homes have more than trebled in a month" (my emphasis)
- The quote you reproduce says "... the Government is proposing to send hospital patients into care homes without tests ..." (my emphasis)
So let's not get carried away by assuming that something that's not happened yet has caused something that has happened.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 15, 2021, 04:40:06 PM
So the R0 is still between 1.2 and 1.3, the same as last week. It looks like we still have a way to go. Add to that the Brazillian strain is here in the UK (It is a bit pricklier than the homegrown variety).
Scotland had planned on having all home care workers vaccinated by the end of March, but now it will be completed this month. So good news there.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on January 16, 2021, 12:33:51 PM
Interesting Radio 4 programme "How effective is one dose of the vaccine?"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000r4t9 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000r4t9)
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 16, 2021, 01:29:15 PM
There's been a bit of doubt about the Oxford vaccine in Australia

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjC2eL2xqDuAhVTSsAKHVheBPgQFjACegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F8def3a81-9b80-46a1-9742-f64b80bfc74f&usg=AOvVaw3Z_X3IFTuQCJ6gdpVPdcz7
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 16, 2021, 01:38:25 PM
Can't read the link not being a subscriber
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: sparky Paul on January 16, 2021, 01:43:43 PM
Can't read the link not being a subscriber

Neither am I, just cut/pasted the url from the page google linked to.

Try the revised linky
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 16, 2021, 02:05:20 PM
There's been a bit of doubt about the Oxford vaccine in Australia
More from Australia. No idea how much is politics or other bias.

https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2021/01/15/oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-coronavirus-australia/

https://theconversation.com/the-oxford-vaccine-has-unique-advantages-as-does-pfizers-using-both-is-australias-best-strategy-152976

https://theconversation.com/the-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-is-the-first-to-publish-peer-reviewed-efficacy-results-heres-what-they-tell-us-and-what-they-dont-151755

Switzerland and Pakistan are signing up for the Astra -Zeneca vaccine.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 16, 2021, 02:31:07 PM
Meanwhile the billionaires will be all right.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/16/calling-all-billionaires-heres-how-to-keep-your-superyacht-covid-free
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Kremmen on January 16, 2021, 03:00:52 PM
The bottom line for me will be the charts falling, especially my area that is well above the national average.

However, my area may not fall that quickly because there are a large group who will no doubt still refuse the vaccine.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Jocko on January 16, 2021, 03:26:41 PM
Had my usual trip to visit Mum in Danderhall today and I was amazed at how quiet the roads were. The A92 Regional Road, the M90, M9, M8 and A720 City Bypass were all as quiet as they were in the first lockdown. They were a little busier on my return after lunchtime, but not a lot busier. Nothing has changed since last weekend except peoples perception of how bad things are getting. I did, however, have to overtake a caravan at one stage. Wonder how that could be construed as "essential travel". Mind you, you could be driving with a car full of kids, a roof rack loaded with suitcases and a trailer with canoes and bikes on it and Police Scotland wouldn't stop you.
Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: Westy36 on January 16, 2021, 04:51:40 PM
Seems a lot quieter in Suffolk suburbs today. Mind you, we've had some snow so it could be that. However, let's be optomistic and say the message is getting through. Just been for a walk, and people are back to crossing the road to give each other room. Lots of hellos as well.   :)

The FT article about Oz scientists was a bit concerning. Doubt about vaccines and new strains of Covid make for concerning reading.

Title: Re: Tier 3 and above.
Post by: JimSh on January 16, 2021, 08:41:48 PM
Christmas spike, new variant or both.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55669736