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Other Hondas & General Topics => Off Topic (Non-Honda) => Topic started by: Jocko on September 13, 2020, 11:53:57 AM

Title: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Jocko on September 13, 2020, 11:53:57 AM
Now I know the last thread on Coronavirus was deleted so I implore you DO NOT MAKE THIS POLITICAL. I just feel that the greatest natural disaster in our lives deserves some discussion by intelligent adults.

Once again my mother-in-law's Care Home has had to go into lockdown due to a member of staff testing positive in their weekly checks. This happened a fortnight ago as well, but a subsequent test showed negative so restrictions were lifted. We were lucky to have visited Mum yesterday.
Lockdowns in Care Homes are not just for 14 days. They cannot reopen for visitors until 28 clear days have passed. Mum thinks we have deserted her after a week.

So once again, PLEASE, DO NOT MAKE THIS POLITICAL. I will be the first to ask Richard to delete the thread.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: sparky Paul on September 13, 2020, 12:16:51 PM
Once again my mother-in-law's Care Home has had to go into lockdown due to a member of staff testing positive in their weekly checks. This happened a fortnight ago as well, but a subsequent test showed negative so restrictions were lifted. We were lucky to have visited Mum yesterday.

I'm pleased to hear it that you at least managed to squeeze a visit in Jocko, hope this one's a false alarm too.

Confirmed cases are cropping up in local schools now, that's my biggest concern at the moment.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Kenneve on September 13, 2020, 01:41:33 PM
I’m with you on this one Jocko.

My wife is in a care home which has once again gone into lockdown, the only contact I have is by videophone, which is OK for me, but with her having Alzheimer’s, I don’t think she understands what is going on.

Up till recently I could only meet her, by appointment, in the garden of the home, which was fine in good weather, but not so in the rain!

I fully understand the need for lockdown, but I just wish a better arrangement could be made for visiting.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Jocko on September 13, 2020, 02:08:51 PM
We meet in an outdoor summer house thing but yesterday it was a bit chilly.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Jocko on September 14, 2020, 09:34:19 AM
Went to do my laundry in our communal laundrette and some t0sser had stuck a used mask and glove in the drier. Masks and gloves are becoming the new plastic bags and Big Mac cartons, free to discard where you wish.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: sparky Paul on September 15, 2020, 12:01:33 AM
Right on cue, message from lad's school, they have a confirmed case.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Jocko on September 15, 2020, 07:18:41 AM
We received a phone call yesterday evening to say Mum's care home has a confirmed case (apparently with symptoms this time) and they have had to go into lockdown. So no visiting until 28 days with no positive tests recorded.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: sparky Paul on September 15, 2020, 11:39:03 AM
We received a phone call yesterday evening to say Mum's care home has a confirmed case (apparently with symptoms this time) and they have had to go into lockdown. So no visiting until 28 days with no positive tests recorded.

Is the case being removed to hospital, or at the very least barrier isolated? I hope everyone is okay.

For us, not much appears to be happening. All children are required to attend as normal, except 19 "prolonged close contacts". School are not even telling parents which year group bubble is involved (each circa 300 pupils), though I suspect that will be rumbled today, and even the (supposedly independent) parent's facebook page is removing any discussion. I suspect they have also switched to pre-moderation, as new threads have stopped appearing.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: VicW on September 15, 2020, 03:38:10 PM
Locally at least the social distancing rule is largely being ignored. If you are in a queue you can guarantee that someone will stand immediately behind you, well within the recommended 2metres. Nobody avoids anyone on the pavement anymore. This is people of all ages but I would suggest that the older people are the worst culprits unless it's school time. Then the pupils march down the pavement in line abreast like a bulldozer.

Vic.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Jocko on September 15, 2020, 05:47:14 PM
Is the case being removed to hospital, or at the very least barrier isolated? I hope everyone is okay.
It is a staff member who has tested positive so they will be isolating at home unless they end up needing hospital care.
With regard to social distancing, I find most people are extremely good here in Fife. Even in a busy supermarket they queue 2 metres apart and don't crowd you at shelves.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: sparky Paul on September 15, 2020, 07:27:31 PM
It is a staff member who has tested positive so they will be isolating at home unless they end up needing hospital care.
With regard to social distancing, I find most people are extremely good here in Fife. Even in a busy supermarket they queue 2 metres apart and don't crowd you at shelves.

At least they are easier to remove from the setting. Fingers crossed they haven't passed it to anyone else.

Not too bad here with the masks & distancing, most people are taking appropriate care. Only the odd one you have to tell, and fortunately the other half isn't afraid to! School is a bit of a problem, few masks in evidence, and hundreds of children mixing in close proximity. About half are complying on buses, where masks are mandatory.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Jocko on September 17, 2020, 09:28:40 AM
Yesterday I passed the local Tesco Express, at lunchtime, and there was a group of about 100 high school pupils crowded outside, waiting to be allowed into the shop. No social distancing whatsoever.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: culzean on September 17, 2020, 09:37:15 AM
Yesterday I passed the local Tesco Express, at lunchtime, and there was a group of about 100 high school pupils crowded outside, waiting to be allowed into the shop. No social distancing whatsoever.

The younger ones are confident that Covid will not affect them ( until it mutates ) so will happily carry on as normal,  but they do not seem to care if they pass it on to teachers or take it home to their parents,  they are a 'vector' for Covid just like  Mosquito for malaria and Tsetse fly for sleeping sickness.  Some flu does affect youngsters much more than older people and I hope us oldies can get our own back sometime....
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: sparky Paul on September 17, 2020, 09:56:18 AM
Yesterday I passed the local Tesco Express, at lunchtime, and there was a group of about 100 high school pupils crowded outside, waiting to be allowed into the shop. No social distancing whatsoever.

There's not a lot of social distancing being enforced in schools, so it's not surprising they don't give a toss.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: ColinB on September 19, 2020, 03:55:26 PM
We're not going to stand much chance of beating this virus whilst there are d1ckheads like this around:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Jocko on September 19, 2020, 04:26:43 PM
I think quarantine for travellers returning from countries on the list should be in secure hotels, at the traveller's expense, as they do in Australia, New Zealand and other countries around the world.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: JimSh on September 19, 2020, 05:21:50 PM
We're not going to stand much chance of beating this virus whilst there are d1ckheads like this around:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353

Or these
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-19/coronavirus-police-and-protesters-clash-at-anti-vaccine-demonstration
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: madasafish on September 19, 2020, 10:10:10 PM
Our local newspaper carried last week the story of a young lady in quarantine who went on a pub crawl the day her results came back positive. Nine infected and pub had to be deep cleaned...
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: ColinB on September 20, 2020, 09:44:49 AM
This is a fascinating article:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-53640382

Ostensibly, it's about the disinformation campaigns run by Big Tobacco about the "health" of their products, and the way similar campaigns by Big Oil have created doubt about climate change. But the author points out that those kinds of "scientist against scientist" debates have entered the mainstream as a general lack of trust in scientific advice about anything, so we're now seeing totally unfounded concerns about 5G, vaccines and coronavirus precautions.

Excerpt:
"By cynically manipulating and distorting scientific evidence, the manufacturers of doubt have seeded in much of the public a cynicism about science, making it far more difficult to convince people that science provides useful - in some cases, vitally important - information.
"There is no question that this distrust of science and scientists is making it more difficult to stem the coronavirus pandemic.""
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: JimSh on September 20, 2020, 11:35:22 AM

Excerpt:
"By cynically manipulating and distorting scientific evidence, the manufacturers of doubt have seeded in much of the public a cynicism about science, making it far more difficult to convince people that science provides useful - in some cases, vitally important - information.
"There is no question that this distrust of science and scientists is making it more difficult to stem the coronavirus pandemic.""


Leading to this
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/20/covid-scepticism-behind-high-bolton-infection-rate-says-local-mp
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Jocko on September 20, 2020, 11:58:19 AM
A lot of the time people believe what they want to believe. If someone wants to go out on the town then they will happily believe those that say it is safe to do so. I want to stay home and feel safe so I am happy to believe those that say the virus is a killer and if we don't isolate we'll all die. Once again we have opinions split by age across the nation.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: JimSh on September 20, 2020, 09:15:20 PM

Excerpt:
"By cynically manipulating and distorting scientific evidence, the manufacturers of doubt have seeded in much of the public a cynicism about science, making it far more difficult to convince people that science provides useful - in some cases, vitally important - information.
"There is no question that this distrust of science and scientists is making it more difficult to stem the coronavirus pandemic.""


Leading to this
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/20/covid-scepticism-behind-high-bolton-infection-rate-says-local-mp
and this
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-blackpool-lancashire-lockdown-uk-b507484.html
Once again we have opinions split by age across the nation.

And they don't all look in the first flush of youth.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Jocko on September 20, 2020, 10:02:22 PM
Once again, I feel that all the UK administrations are dawdling into taking some action. A few months from now, they will be lamenting the delay in taking action.
Scotland's figure for today shows 5.4% of newly tested individuals proved positive. The WHO says that above 5% means the virus is out of control.
However, we have been told that this is only one day's figures and they work on seven days rolling average, but I'd bet my house on it not falling over the next week.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: culzean on September 21, 2020, 08:46:51 AM
More people have died from seasonal flu and pneumonia than Covid in UK this year,  but the social distancing and extra hand washing has kept even the flu about 50% below last year.  The hysteria about Covid has trashed the economy and will come back to haunt the population in future with rise in deaths as less people been diagnosed and treated for things like cancer, strokes and heart problems etc. etc.   Many ( independent of government panel ) experts have described covid to a forest fire,  and the UK had some 'fuel' ( many people with other conditions / co-morbidity ) around,  even the  WHO said UK should expect more than average world deaths because of the success of NHS in keeping people with many chronic conditions alive over the years. 

We are not into the winter flu season yet either.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/summer-flu-is-now-more-deadly-than-covid
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Jocko on September 21, 2020, 09:00:17 AM
So what would be your approach?
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: BIGFELLAH on September 21, 2020, 09:37:50 AM
So what would be your approach?

I await the reply with not a lot of anticipation of a solution.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: sparky Paul on September 21, 2020, 10:45:53 AM
It it just me that finds referring to people with pre-existing health conditions as 'dry wood' particularly repulsive?
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: JimSh on September 21, 2020, 10:48:56 AM
It it just me that finds referring to people with pre-existing health conditions as 'dry wood' particularly repulsive?
Nope.
Me too.

Alert:- today’s briefing from Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance (without politicians) about to start at 11am.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: JimSh on September 21, 2020, 12:09:15 PM
More people have died from seasonal flu and pneumonia than Covid in UK this year,  but the social distancing and extra hand washing has kept even the flu about 50% below last year. 
Seasonal flu is pretty predicticable  and steady and controlled by vaccinating the vulnerable.
Corona virus has the potential to reproduce exponentially. At present R is above one and the infections are doubling approximately every week.  If left unchecked, numbers will be very high in just a few weeks.
The hysteria about Covid has trashed the economy and will come back to haunt the population in future with rise in deaths as less people been diagnosed and treated for things like cancer, strokes and heart problems etc. etc.   people with other conditions / co-morbidity ) around
If infections are left to increase. Hospital cases will increase. Hospital staff will be diverted from treating cancer strokes, heart attacks to dealing with Covid cases. Even more deaths will occur.
The economy will be trashed if the disease is not kept under control.

Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: ColinS on September 21, 2020, 12:44:35 PM
The hysteria about Covid has trashed the economy and will come back to haunt the population in future with rise in deaths as less people been diagnosed and treated for things like cancer, strokes and heart problems etc. etc.   people with other conditions / co-morbidity ) around
If infections are left to increase. Hospital cases will increase. Hospital staff will be diverted from treating cancer strokes, heart attacks to dealing with Covid cases. Even more deaths will occur.
The economy will be trashed if the disease is not kept under control.
As I see it, until vaccinations become available, this is a lose-lose situation.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Jocko on September 21, 2020, 12:57:10 PM
Scotland's figure for today shows 5.4% of newly tested individuals proved positive. The WHO says that above 5% means the virus is out of control.
However, we have been told that this is only one day's figures and they work on seven days rolling average, but I'd bet my house on it not falling over the next week.
Today's figure 6.3%
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: culzean on September 21, 2020, 01:07:32 PM
The lockdown approach was arguably more to protect the NHS than the population, the curve was flattened OK, but has been extended and as soon as lockdown gets lifted it comes back.  The Swedish approach let things take their course without a lockdown and they have been pretty much OK.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/27/did-protecting-nhs-actually-cost-lives/
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: madasafish on September 21, 2020, 02:11:32 PM
I proposed a different approach: some (other) scientists have a similar approach.

Protest the vulnerable (old/covid 19 vulnerable due to ill health etc)  by isolation.
Let rest of population catch it..


But this requires test and trace to work .. and testing of people helping those isolating must be weekly at worst to prevent infection of the vulnerable - who have to get food etc collected/fed etc..

All this talk of a vaccine is mindless soporific drugs for the innocent. Even if one was in production next year, it is estimated at best 10% of the UK population could be vaccinated in 2021 due to high world wide demand..It might take 3 years or more before the entire population is vaccinated..


So think of another three years of lockdowns..

And they (politicians and medics) all know it...

So talk of a vaccine is just deflection strategy..

Anyone fancy three years of lockdown and the economy halved?





Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: JimSh on September 21, 2020, 02:22:28 PM
The lockdown approach was arguably more to protect the NHS than the population, the curve was flattened OK, but has been extended and as soon as lockdown gets lifted it comes back.  The Swedish approach let things take their course without a lockdown and they have been pretty much OK.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/27/did-protecting-nhs-actually-cost-lives/

As explained in the article "The Hammer and the Dance" which I posted on a previous thread the lockdown was a crude measure designed to bring the spread of the virus down to a manageable level. (The Hammer.)
When the infection level is brought down to a low level the infection rate should then be controlled by careful relaxation, monitoring and imposition of less severe measures if necessary. (the Dance) buying time till a vaccine is developed.
If the virus gets out of control again it would require a subsequent application of the Hammer. (which would probably be disastrous economically).
The problem is controlling the balancing act of the dance especially when the numbers have been allowed to get uncomfortably high and the track and trace system is inadequate.



https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-basic-dance-steps-everybody-can-follow-b3d216daa343
Latest edit. Elaboration on "the dance"
Even later edit Added second link

Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: sparky Paul on September 21, 2020, 02:36:04 PM
Why are people so obsessed with comparing the UK with Sweden? The two countries could hardly be more different. Apart from the many demographic and societal differences between the two countries, compare the population density, per square mile -

England - 1,119
Sweden - 65

Sweden did employ some distancing measures, just not as severe as the UK and other countries. They also have a generally better educated and compliant population. They did not do nothing. Just because Sweden has escaped the worst effects of the disease, that does not mean that the same approach would have the same results here.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: VicW on September 21, 2020, 02:58:07 PM
I suspect that certain groups of people in this country are going out of their way to organise disobediance of the guidelines and that there are plenty of stupid people about who are happy to join in who think that they are fireproof regarding Covid infection. Plus the element that join in because they want to appear on television. Perhaps the media should not include photos and videos in their newscasts.
 Don't forget that there is an element that believe that the Covid infection doesn't exist, there are some strange people about. There's still the winter colds and flu epidemic to come that will cloud the figures somewhat.

Vic.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: JimSh on September 21, 2020, 03:20:00 PM
I suspect that certain groups of people in this country are going out of their way to organise disobediance of the guidelines and that there are plenty of stupid people about who are happy to join in who think that they are fireproof regarding Covid infection. Plus the element that join in because they want to appear on television. Perhaps the media should not include photos and videos in their newscasts.

I can't understand these people at all.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: culzean on September 21, 2020, 03:35:43 PM
Why are people so obsessed with comparing the UK with Sweden? The two countries could hardly be more different. Apart from the many demographic and societal differences between the two countries, compare the population density, per square mile -

England - 1,119
Sweden - 65

Sweden did employ some distancing measures, just not as severe as the UK and other countries. They also have a generally better educated and compliant population. They did not do nothing. Just because Sweden has escaped the worst effects of the disease, that does not mean that the same approach would have the same results here.

Dividing the population by the area of a country does not tell the whole story,  90% of Swedes live in urban areas ( towns and cities ) with massive areas of empty space in the rest of the country.   Same with Australia 95% of the people live in towns and cities, and within 100 miles of the coast - but if you simply divide area by population you get a figure of about 9 per sq mile.

Good article 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-needs-to-rethink-his-covid-strategy

extract from article above..

‘The most pertinent epidemiological feature of Covid-19 is a greatly varying mortality risk by demographic. Mortality risk is highly age variant, with 89 per cent of Covid mortalities in the over 65s. Mortality risk is also concentrated in those with pre-existing medical conditions (95 per cent of Covid deaths). This large variation in risk by age and health status suggests that the harm caused by uniform policies (that apply to all persons) will outweigh the benefits’.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: ColinS on September 21, 2020, 03:36:21 PM
All this talk of a vaccine is mindless soporific drugs for the innocent. Even if one was in production next year, it is estimated at best 10% of the UK population could be vaccinated in 2021 due to high world wide demand..It might take 3 years or more before the entire population is vaccinated..

Where on earth are your figures coming from?  Over two months ago the government secured 30 million doses with BioNTech/Pfizer and 60 million doses in principle with Valneva and if it proves safe then the option to secure a further 40 million doses.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: culzean on September 21, 2020, 03:43:51 PM
All this talk of a vaccine is mindless soporific drugs for the innocent. Even if one was in production next year, it is estimated at best 10% of the UK population could be vaccinated in 2021 due to high world wide demand..It might take 3 years or more before the entire population is vaccinated..

Where on earth are your figures coming from?  Over two months ago the government secured 30 million doses with BioNTech/Pfizer and 60 million doses in principle with Valneva and if it proves safe then the option to secure a further 40 million doses.


And if none of those vaccines prove effective we are then scrounging around for doses of a vaccine that looks more promising...
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: ColinS on September 21, 2020, 03:54:20 PM
And if none of those vaccines prove effective we are then scrounging around for doses of a vaccine that looks more promising...

Well I still have faith in our world leading scientists and in the UK in general.  We can't all be old pessimistic moaners or the world will come to an end.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: culzean on September 21, 2020, 04:10:32 PM
And if none of those vaccines prove effective we are then scrounging around for doses of a vaccine that looks more promising...

Well I still have faith in our world leading scientists and in the UK in general.  We can't all be old pessimistic moaners or the world will come to an end.

I am not moaning,  I am actually optimistic enough to say we need to end the 'one size fits all lockdown ' and shield the vulnerable ( or they shield themselves ) - the lockdown has become unsustainable because the public know that the virus is pretty harmless to majority of UK population and they cannot see why the policy is being continued when it is doing so much harm to the healthcare ( other than covid ) available to UK residents and the economy.

Vast majority of people in the danger group for Covid are retired and don't have to go to work, or even shopping unless they want to.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Jocko on September 21, 2020, 04:17:24 PM
What we need (God forbid) is a fit, healthy twenty-something footballer of social media influencer to catch it and die then opinions will change,
For me, I am protecting myself and $od the rest of the population. If I catch it, it will be my fault and nobody else's.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: ColinS on September 21, 2020, 04:18:17 PM
And if none of those vaccines prove effective we are then scrounging around for doses of a vaccine that looks more promising...

Well I still have faith in our world leading scientists and in the UK in general.  We can't all be old pessimistic moaners or the world will come to an end.

I am not moaning,  I am actually optimistic enough to say we need to end the 'one size fits all lockdown ' and shield the vulnerable ( or they shield themselves ) - the lockdown has become unsustainable because the public know that the virus is pretty harmless to majority of UK population and they cannot see why the policy is being continued when it is doing so much harm to the healthcare ( other than covid ) available to UK residents and the economy.

Vast majority of people in the danger group for Covid are retired and don't have to go to work, or even shopping unless they want to.

Well at least you admit to being old ;).  I agree with your sentiments but still believe that the only world-wide end to this has to be through vaccination.  That I agree is a mammoth task but if we want to continue with global travel it has to be done.

Until then, vaccinate the UK and don't let anyone out or in without an enforced quarantine period.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Jocko on September 21, 2020, 04:21:59 PM
Until then, vaccinate the UK and don't let anyone out or in without an enforced quarantine period.
If the UK is all vaccinated then it should matter if we let people in or out.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: ColinS on September 21, 2020, 04:23:33 PM
Until then, vaccinate the UK and don't let anyone out or in without an enforced quarantine period.
If the UK is all vaccinated then it should matter if we let people in or out.
Good point
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: madasafish on September 21, 2020, 04:26:50 PM
All this talk of a vaccine is mindless soporific drugs for the innocent. Even if one was in production next year, it is estimated at best 10% of the UK population could be vaccinated in 2021 due to high world wide demand..It might take 3 years or more before the entire population is vaccinated..

Where on earth are your figures coming from?  Over two months ago the government secured 30 million doses with BioNTech/Pfizer and 60 million doses in principle with Valneva and if it proves safe then the option to secure a further 40 million doses.

Remind me when those doses will be delivered?
When the vaccines will be successfully tested?
How long it will take to produce them.

Read this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54027269

DO you seriously suggest all the vaccines you quote will be successful?


The Government have as much idea as I have : none.. so it is betting on several horses at once hoping one will be successful.

When?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/22/no-covid-vaccine-winter-2021-warns-chief-medical-officer/

Winter 2021!

Sorry but you are taking Government propaganda and interpreting as truth. It is designed to stop people thinking about what will happen.

If the UK's Chief Medical Officer says no vaccine before winter 2021...I trust his judgement  rather what any statement by politicians or journalists.

SO if it's winter 2021 , how many people in the UK are likely to get it?
2 million? 5 million? 6 million?


"Winter 2020 in Northern Hemisphere will begin on
Monday, 21 December
and ends on
Saturday, 20 March 2021
"
https://www.google.com/search?q=when+does+winter+officially+start+in+uk&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBGB908GB908&oq=when+does+winter+officially+start+in+uk&aqs=chrome..69i57.9694j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

I think 10%  being vaccinated from 21st December to 31st December is highly improbable
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: Jocko on September 21, 2020, 04:41:39 PM
If the UK's Chief Medical Officer says no vaccine before winter 2021...I trust his judgement
That was not his opinion in today's broadcast.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: JimSh on September 21, 2020, 04:46:19 PM

Good article 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-needs-to-rethink-his-covid-strategy

extract from article above..

‘The most pertinent epidemiological feature of Covid-19 is a greatly varying mortality risk by demographic. Mortality risk is highly age variant, with 89 per cent of Covid mortalities in the over 65s. Mortality risk is also concentrated in those with pre-existing medical conditions (95 per cent of Covid deaths). This large variation in risk by age and health status suggests that the harm caused by uniform policies (that apply to all persons) will outweigh the benefits’.

Counter letter published in BMJ here;-
https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/09/21/covid-19-an-open-letter-to-the-uks-chief-medical-officers/#comment-5079217714
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: ColinS on September 21, 2020, 04:47:42 PM
Sorry but you are taking Government propaganda and interpreting as truth. It is designed to stop people thinking about what will happen.

Thread is starting to get political again.  We should stop this line of comment before it gets removed.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: madasafish on September 21, 2020, 04:51:39 PM
Sorry but you are taking Government propaganda and interpreting as truth. It is designed to stop people thinking about what will happen.

Thread is starting to get political again.  We should stop this line of comment before it gets removed.

I will rephrase:

"Of course the Government does not want to alarm people so tends not to spell out the ramifications of the long time needed to bring an effective vaccine into full scale usage".
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: JimSh on September 21, 2020, 04:56:13 PM
What we need (God forbid) is a fit, healthy twenty-something footballer of social media influencer to catch it and die then opinions will change,
I hope not. As I understand it while Covid can affect healthy younger people the damage is likely to be more of an insidious disease rather than a quick death.
Quote from BMJ letter in previous post. (reply #48)
" While covid-19 has different incidence and outcome in different groups, deaths have occurred in all age, gender and racial/ethnic groups and in people with no pre-existing medical conditions. Long Covid (symptoms extending for weeks or months after covid-19) is a debilitating disease affecting tens of thousands of people in UK, and can occur in previously young and healthy individuals."

For me, I am protecting myself and $od the rest of the population. If I catch it, it will be my fault and nobody else's.
You're doing the right thing and even better you're not only protecting yourself you may also be protecting the rest of the population.

Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: JimSh on September 21, 2020, 05:30:54 PM
Anybody watch today’s briefing from Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance?
I thought it was very refreshing to hear the scientific opinions with no politicians there to muddy the waters
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: culzean on September 21, 2020, 05:38:41 PM
450 people die of cancer in UK EVERY SINGLE DAY, no peaks or troughs just a relentless death toll, how many more will die this year and in future because of disruption of healthcare by previous and upcoming  lockdowns -
( and how many ruined lives and suicides caused by job losses and economy being tanked ) someone needs to show more imagination in the approach to this - the collateral damage will be much worse than effects of virus.
Title: Re: Experiences of Covid-19
Post by: JimSh on September 21, 2020, 06:05:13 PM
450 people die of cancer in UK EVERY SINGLE DAY, no peaks or troughs just a relentless death toll, how many more will die this year and in future because of disruption of healthcare by previous and upcoming  lockdowns -
( and how many ruined lives and suicides caused by job losses and economy being tanked ) someone needs to show more imagination in the approach to this - the collateral damage will be much worse than effects of virus.
This is where we came in this morning
Covid infections are not flatline. They are exponential.
You are correct in that extra deaths due to cancer etc are due to disruption of healthcare by lockdowns.
If the virus is kept under control there will be no need for further lockdowns and healthcare for cancer patients etc. can be re-established.
If the virus is allowed to spread healthcare will need to be diverted back from cancer care to covid patients.