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Other Hondas & General Topics => Off Topic (Non-Honda) => Topic started by: Jocko on March 04, 2020, 03:36:10 PM

Title: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 04, 2020, 03:36:10 PM
Just been informed there is a suspected case of coronavirus at the local hospital where my wife works. Glad she is off work at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 04, 2020, 04:04:06 PM
Just been informed there is a suspected case of coronavirus at the local hospital where my wife works. Glad she is off work at the moment.

See attached PDF for surefire protection method....

More than a coincidence that the present outbreak started in Wuhan,  where there is a massive microbiology lab and it is rumoured that test animals were passed into the food chain at local meat markets....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 06, 2020, 10:49:58 PM
More than a coincidence that the present outbreak started in Wuhan,  where there is a massive microbiology lab and it is rumoured that test animals were passed into the food chain at local meat markets....

Whilst it's a fabulous news story, I think it's a myth.  I understand that a number of western labs have analysed the virus and have found no evidence that it is man made, and is entirely consistent with a natural mutation to similar pre-existing viruses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on March 07, 2020, 08:33:15 AM
There's a case in my town. It's someone who had returned from northern Italy and had put themselves in self-isolation so hopefully that's as far as it will spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 07, 2020, 09:03:43 AM
More than a coincidence that the present outbreak started in Wuhan,  where there is a massive microbiology lab and it is rumoured that test animals were passed into the food chain at local meat markets....

Whilst it's a fabulous news story, I think it's a myth.  I understand that a number of western labs have analysed the virus and have found no evidence that it is man made, and is entirely consistent with a natural mutation to similar pre-existing viruses.

Who said it was man made ? The lab could have just been studying it - but it is beyond coincidence that it happened right next to the main microbiology / virology lab in China.

How about this for a conspiracy theory,  due to the fact that this virus disproportionately targets older people and that China has an aging population not economically active and needing care this virus was released on purpose, but they would be silly to do that right next to the laboratory - wouldn't they ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kenneve on March 07, 2020, 05:02:48 PM
The world's gone mad again, went into my local Sainsbury's to do the weekly shop yesterday morning.
Not one Loo roll to had anywhere in the shop, or even a Paracetamol tablet, shelves completely bare!
What prompts people into the mass frenzy of buying up everything in the shop, must have more money than sense.
I blame the media for all the hype over the Coronavirus, funny how everything has gone quiet over Brexit, wonder what the next topic will be??
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 07, 2020, 05:12:43 PM
Who said it was man made ? The lab could have just been studying it - but it is beyond coincidence that it happened right next to the main microbiology / virology lab in China.

I thought you were referring to the speculation in the news suggesting it was a man made modification of the bat virus, known to be held in the Wuhan facility. Possibly an intentional leak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 07, 2020, 06:15:54 PM
Not one Loo roll to had anywhere in the shop, or even a Paracetamol tablet, shelves completely bare!
I went to my local Lidl today and Mrs Jocko had Loo rolls on the list. I thought I should be so lucky, but they had tons. I just bought my usual pack. Don't know about Paracetamol though. I get mine on prescription. Seemingly the problem is India limiting the export of the drug. India is the world's biggest supplier of generic drugs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 07, 2020, 06:19:29 PM
That is news of a hotel in China, being used for quarantine, collapsing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51784167
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 07, 2020, 11:03:58 PM
[Don't know about Paracetamol though. I get mine on prescription.
I get mine for 60p from Tesco. Doesn’t you getting yours on presumably free prescription cost the NHS a fortune?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 07, 2020, 11:23:38 PM

How about this for a conspiracy theory,  due to the fact that this virus disproportionately targets older people and that China has an aging population not economically active and needing care this virus was released on purpose, but they would be silly to do that right next to the laboratory - wouldn't they ?
Conspiracy theory right enough.
It's all relative
Median age China 37.4 years
Median age USA   38.1 years
Median age UK     40.5 years

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age

What is truly frightening is the median age in some of the African countries. (in the teens)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 07, 2020, 11:32:58 PM
[Don't know about Paracetamol though. I get mine on prescription.
I get mine for 60p from Tesco. Doesn’t you getting yours on presumably free prescription cost the NHS a fortune?

Being able to buy drugs (in limited quantities) off the shelf in Tesco doesn't mean that you shouldn't be able to get larger quantities on script for chronic conditions. The NHS being fleeced for these drugs, if indeed they are, is another issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 08, 2020, 06:56:55 AM
Doesn’t you getting yours on presumably free prescription cost the NHS a fortune?
I get 480 at a time for my Osteoarthritis (8 a day). That would require 30 visits to the supermarket (every two days) or 15 visits to the pharmacy. Why should I, an OAP, have to fork out £18 for painkillers. I paid National Insurance for 50 years. Why shouldn't I get the drugs I require on prescription
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 08, 2020, 08:08:08 PM
Sorry @jocko. My comment was not supposed to be aimed at you personally. It was intended more as a comment on how the system works. I can see my wording was clumsy and for that I apologise. I have no issue with people getting the meds they need.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: MartinJG on March 08, 2020, 08:49:15 PM

If anyone wants to follow a sound down to earth running appraisal, here is a useful link to Dr John Campbell.

https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos

Been following his commentary since the problem first broke out in China. No hype, no hysteria, just good old fashioned common sense backed by some professional knowledge and experience. The main problem with this particular strain of virus is the potentially higher spread rate (R value) among humans. Freeze that risk and it will struggle to thrive on the simple principle of prevention rather than cure. Hence lockdowns in bad affected areas. Trouble is, as always, too many clowns are waiting for the red alert and official statement of a crisis when it is arguably too late and then of course it will be the guvverment's fault...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 09, 2020, 09:28:54 AM

If anyone wants to follow a sound down to earth running appraisal, here is a useful link to Dr John Campbell.

https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos

Been following his commentary since the problem first broke out in China. No hype, no hysteria, just good old fashioned common sense backed by some professional knowledge and experience. The main problem with this particular strain of virus is the potentially higher spread rate (R value) among humans. Freeze that risk and it will struggle to thrive on the simple principle of prevention rather than cure. Hence lockdowns in bad affected areas. Trouble is, as always, too many clowns are waiting for the red alert and official statement of a crisis when it is arguably too late and then of course it will be the guvverment's fault...

I did some numerical analysis assuming transmission cases increase as at present:

End of week forecast total infected.. this week 696
next week 4,200
Next +1 week 25,000

And assuming nothing changes - which it will not unless quarantine of London starts -
by mid May we will see 5.5million +/- 1 million..

Why we are letting 17 planes land from Italy and not testing passengers beats me...  unless the numbers of infections brought in that way will make no difference.

My forecast says they will make no difference...except spread it a little more widely...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 09, 2020, 09:49:43 AM
I agree with @madasafish about infection rate.

It is normally exponential..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_function

Main problem with Covid-19 is,  it can last up to a week on surfaces compared to <1 hour for seasonal flu and its mortality rate is about 3%, which does not sound a lot until you consider normal seasonal flu is around 0.1% mortality.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: MartinJG on March 09, 2020, 10:29:11 AM
Off the top of my head, I believe the R value is around 2.0 or more. I seem to recall normal seasonal influenza is about R 1.38 or so. I am sure even Diane Abbott could just about work out the potential compound rate of spread of the virus if unchecked. It seems a reliable vaccine is unlikely to be available before 2021. Summer months and generally warmer conditions check the spread but the main problem right now is the overload on the NHS which, according to Dr JC struggles to deal with the routine A&E traffic on a Monday morning. The main worry is the elderly and infirm. The other problem is integrity among the various countries infected. Politicians just cannot kick the habit of lying when it comes to facing facts. However, assuming the stats we have so far are indicative, then it is expected that @ 60% of the UK could become infected. Death rate is around 3% so far, but that is skewed by reports from places like Iran etc where economy with the truth is the routine. Germany claims not to have had any casualties so far, but their form on genuine candour leaves a little to be desired. Let's just say they are at the top of the class on the denial front. The simple solution right now is a lockdown and isolation but try dinning that into the heads of the average Joe out there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 09, 2020, 10:37:00 AM
Just to explain 'R' value MartinJG refers to...

https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#rsubsubvalues
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: hemming on March 09, 2020, 11:45:01 AM
Quote from Dan Shaw's book On this Day in History

"9th March - In 16th Century Europe a second, deadly round of plague was spreading like wildfire and city officials across Europe desperately sought methods of prevention against the fearsome epidemic. In Naples it was believed that one way to battle against the spread of the disease was to ban kissing in public. On this day in 1562, the ban was imposed. Authorities took the new law so seriously that philandering couples caught stealing kisses could be punished by death."

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 09, 2020, 11:46:09 AM
The first figure that was bandied about was 500,000 deaths in the UK. Now they are talking about 100,000 deaths. A lot of these deaths would have occurred anyway, just the COVID 19 will hurry them on.
I worry for my wife who has a depressed immune system due to chemotherapy but we are both relative loaners, so don't have a huge amount of contact with people. I make a point of thoroughly washing my hands as soon as I come into the house and have even stopped wearing a wristwatch so I can do a good job without having to take a watch on and off. If we get by fine. If not, well, you've got to go sometime!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 09, 2020, 02:10:00 PM
On 28th February there were 28 conformed cases in UK.
On 3rd May there were 51 confirmed cases.
From infection to obvious signs - cough/sneezing/temperature takes 1-2 weeks..

 Now we had some 60 new cases reported yesterday.

Suppose each case infects 3.0 others (R= 3.0)  - Actual recorded around 3.7.   So that means approx 2 weeks ago there were actually 20 actual cases in UK giving 60 new cases now. That is 60 in TOTAL  - not just new cases. We have actually 270 recorded - mostly within the last two weeks...


But two weeks ago 23rd February  we had 13 confirmed cases reported..   

So significant under-reporting (by a factor of 3 to 4)  of cases is going on.. or R>3 and is more like 12 !!!!!


In conclusion things are worse - and possibly a lot worse - than the reported cases.

Some can present as  very mild like a cold...  which would make sense..

The Government  are in my view significantly downplaying the risks..

PS
 based on the % of vulnerable pateints in the UK ( older than 65 years, 18% of UK)    and a quoted death rate of 100k patients - assume all over 65 years- the actual number of cases  forecast =

100,000/8%   = 1,250,000 OAPs infected. Of whom 8% will die and another  roughly 12% will be seriously ill but recover with medical treatment (if available).  SO roughly 2500,000 need medical treatment (1,250,000 x 20%)

Prorated to entire population   1,250,000/18%   6,944,444  infected..

Which my model says we shall reach by May...

There is NO chance the NHS will cope.. - IF this analysis is correct..  (It's a forecast so bound to be wrong)

Have a nice day ...


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 09, 2020, 02:32:00 PM
Has anybody got any good recipes for inducing constipation? :D :D

Local Tesco out of bog roll and we've only got 3 left.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 09, 2020, 04:02:00 PM
Has anybody got any good recipes for inducing constipation? :D :D

Local Tesco out of bog roll and we've only got 3 left.
Weird. My local Tesco just now is well stocked for crap wrap, to the point of two for.. offers. All out of pasta though!

People are strange.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on March 09, 2020, 04:57:40 PM
Has anybody got any good recipes for inducing constipation? :D :D

Local Tesco out of bog roll and we've only got 3 left.

Here’s one solution ...
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/05/world/coronavirus-australia-toilet-paper-scli-intl/index.html
 ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 09, 2020, 05:28:49 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/MJ6Drxb.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 09, 2020, 07:04:03 PM
In conclusion things are worse - and possibly a lot worse - than the reported cases.

Some can present as  very mild like a cold...  which would make sense..

The Government  are in my view significantly downplaying the risks..

Looking at the numbers, we are roughly where Italy was two weeks ago, and they say the virus incubates in 10-14 days. So the cases that will emerge in two weeks are being infected NOW.

Now look at the situation in Italy, and consider the measures they are having to take. Our government seem to be crossing their fingers and hoping... what have they actually done to minimise transmission in the general public?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 09, 2020, 07:16:36 PM
Has anybody got any good recipes for inducing constipation? :D :D

Local Tesco out of bog roll and we've only got 3 left.

Not laughing at the French and their silly bidets now, are we?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 10, 2020, 08:59:50 AM
Boris: "One of the theories is perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease to move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures"

Medical experts: “Covid-19 is three times as infectious as flu, and thirty times as deadly. If 60% of the UK population contracts Covid-19 that's 42,000,000 infected people. With a suspected 3% case fatality rate, that's 1.2 million deaths."

Meanwhile, Italy is in lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 10, 2020, 09:31:00 AM
Boris: "One of the theories is perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease to move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures"

Medical experts: “Covid-19 is three times as infectious as flu, and thirty times as deadly. If 60% of the UK population contracts Covid-19 that's 42,000,000 infected people. With a suspected 3% case fatality rate, that's 1.2 million deaths."

Meanwhile, Italy is in lockdown.
Exactly.
Why can't we learn from the Italians and pre-empt a crisis?
The Chinese situation was different in that the virus originated in one region and that was locked down as quickly as possible and then the escape was followed and dealt with.
The Italian outbreak was confined in the north for some time and then when it could no longer be confined the country put into lockdown.
The British authorities seem to have made very little attempt to stop the introduction of the virus (minimal or no airport security) or its spread (public gatherings and sports events). 
I thought I saw the logic of waiting after the first statement by Boris and his medical and scientific advisers but can no longer do so.
Maybe I just fell for Boris's "Hold your fire till you see the whites of their eyes" bullsh*t.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 10, 2020, 09:36:57 AM
I thought I saw the logic of waiting after the first statement by Boris and his medical and scientific advisers but can no longer do so.
Maybe I just fell for Boris's "Hold your fire till you see the whites of their eyes" bullsh*t.

Unfortunately, it will be far too late by then. We're just short of two weeks behind Italy, so pencil in 12 days from now as the day when there's a good chance we will be where Italy is now.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/health-expert-government-coronavirus-perverse/

I hope the words "take it on the chin" don't come back to haunt Boris in a month's time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 10, 2020, 10:23:36 AM
Italy's deputy finance minister is talking about suspending mortgages and taxes tomorrow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 10, 2020, 10:28:28 AM
In two weeks time we will have about 4,000 declared tested cases. With new cases running ar roughly 200+/day.
With a 10 day incubation period, that means around 2,000 people will be ill but not tested and with a Reinfection rate of 3+ they will infect 6,000 people before they show symptoms .. who will then infect another 18,000 before they show symptoms etc..

With these numbers, tracing of contacts becomes impossible.


The time to clamp down is NOW.

The Italian system is an example of how NOT to do it.

(And 13% of Italian victims are .. medical staff)

There is an example even worse in the US

"KIRKLAND, Wash. —  As the deaths of their patients mounted, managers of the nursing home at the center of the U.S. coronavirus epidemic pleaded with authorities to send kits to test those who remained quarantined at the facility.
Enough kits were finally delivered over the weekend, and 35 results came back Monday afternoon. They were grim.

A total of 31 residents tested positive, a spokesman for the Kirkland nursing home said at a hastily called news conference in the facility’s parking lot. One resident tested negative, and three tests were inconclusive.

Results are still to come for an additional 20 residents of Life Care Center of Kirkland, whose death toll climbed to 19 with the announcement Monday of three more COVID-19 fatalities. In all, 22 people have died in Washington state."

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-09/la-na-nursing-home-positive-coronavirus-tests





The UK's Chief Medical Officer is at risk of appearing  incompetent and being set up to take the blame.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 10, 2020, 10:33:27 AM
Since there is no indication whether a recovered patient can still infect others, or become ill again themselves at a future point, isn't all this moot anyway?

Given 99% of Jazz drivers are over age 60 and a high margin are men, I would have thought Honda might want to consider the market for Jazz in the UK going forward.  ;)

Seriously though, as an almost 59 year old male with asthma, I am in three of the high risk categories. So I'm avoiding the train now and taking my Zinc tablets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 10, 2020, 10:54:34 AM
The time to clamp down is NOW.

I absolutely agree.


The UK's Chief Medical Officer is at risk of appearing  incompetent and being set up to take the blame.

I agree with that too. It all looks carefully orchestrated, and Whitty is sticking to the script.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 10, 2020, 10:57:45 AM
Given 99% of Jazz drivers are over age 60

Can't be that high, surely  :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 10, 2020, 11:21:20 AM
Given 99% of Jazz drivers are over age 60

Can't be that high, surely  :D
Totally made up number.

My son and his girlfriend use mine now. They are 24 and 25.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 10, 2020, 01:18:36 PM
The time to clamp down is NOW.

I absolutely agree.


The UK's Chief Medical Officer is at risk of appearing  incompetent and being set up to take the blame.

I agree with that too. It all looks carefully orchestrated, and Whitty is sticking to the script.
+1

When things go tits up the experts are there to take the blame.

Last edit added last sentence.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 10, 2020, 01:59:15 PM
Given 99% of Jazz drivers are over age 60

Can't be that high, surely  :D
Totally made up number.

Yes, I guessed that. Just made me chuckle at the thought of all these Jazz driving OAPs.  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 10, 2020, 02:31:19 PM



The time to clamp down is NOW.

The Italian system is an example of how NOT to do it.



Yes. I meant that we were approx 2 weeks behind the Italians in terms of numbers or approx 2 weeks ahead in terms of knowledge. But Boris seems content to piss away any advantage we could gain from the Italian experience.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 10, 2020, 04:19:33 PM
Today I watched Dr Margaret Harris from the World Health Organisation, speaking from Geneva, and she said that what the UK is currently doing is the correct line to follow, at this time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 11, 2020, 08:17:26 AM
There's a lot we could learn from the SE Asians too

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/mass-testing-alerts-and-big-fines-the-strategies-used-in-asia-to-slow-coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 11, 2020, 06:37:43 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/mar/11/coronavirus-outbreak-described-by-who-as-pandemic-amid-alarming-levels-of-inaction-video
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 11, 2020, 07:57:15 PM
I was speaking to a girl today who works in a well-known supermarket in the town. She was seriously injured in a car accident a year or so back and due to her sickness absence then, will only get limited sick pay and may even suffer disciplinary action if she has to self-quarantine. He husband does not get sickness benefit at all from his work and would have to go on SSP. There is no way they can survive financially is they have to self-quarantine, so they won't. They will both continue to go into work until such time as they are so ill they need to report sick. Luckily I don't use that supermarket!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 11, 2020, 09:34:31 PM
There is no way they can survive financially is they have to self-quarantine, so they won't. They will both continue to go into work until such time as they are so ill they need to report sick.

Sadly, there'll be a lot of people in that particular boat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 12, 2020, 09:02:17 AM
There is no way they can survive financially is they have to self-quarantine, so they won't. They will both continue to go into work until such time as they are so ill they need to report sick.

Sadly, there'll be a lot of people in that particular boat.
A good article from Tom Peck on this
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-sick-pay-universal-credit-nhs-matt-hancock-a9390656.html?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=Feed
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 12, 2020, 11:49:58 AM
Interesting Twitter thread here showing similarities in spread of Coronavirus in different countries.
It would appear that most countries are on a similar track, with the exception of Japan.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237781162153717760.html

Latest edit changed link to show all data together
If you want to follow the thread 
https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237781162153717760
Then click on Show this thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 12, 2020, 01:16:12 PM
Just been watching "Politics Live" and the ladidahs, especially Andrea Leadsom haven't a f**k*ng clue as to how the populous earn a living. All this "working from home" sh*t*. They seem to think the majority of the population work in offices, in front of computers and with telephones on their desks. They obviously have no idea about the millions who work in factories, warehouses, shops, garages, schools, hospitals and such. The intellectually elite are such a bunch of w**k*rs. Thank goodness they are all crammed into their enclave in the south-east. Perhaps the Covid 19 will cull them to a more manageable level.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 12, 2020, 01:47:56 PM
Just been watching "Politics Live" and the ladidahs, especially Andrea Leadsom haven't a f**k*ng clue as to how the populous earn a living. All this "working from home" sh*t*. They seem to think the majority of the population work in offices, in front of computers and with telephones on their desks. They obviously have no idea about the millions who work in factories, warehouses, shops, garages, schools, hospitals and such. The intellectually elite are such a bunch of w**k*rs. Thank goodness they are all crammed into their enclave in the south-east. Perhaps the Covid 19 will cull them to a more manageable level.
They live in a completely different world.
Unfortunately it is almost inevitable that it will be those outside their enclave who will suffer the cull.

I wouldn't class them as "intellectually elite" either. Many of them are as thick as two short planks.

Latest edit Added last sentence having reread Jocko's post
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 12, 2020, 02:08:03 PM

Health expert brands UK's coronavirus response 'pathetic'

Ministers ‘behaving like 19th-century colonialists playing a five-day game of cricket’, says Prof John Ashton

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/health-expert-brands-uks-coronavirus-response-pathetic
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jammyhartley on March 12, 2020, 02:30:49 PM
Nice to see all the balanced posting from SNP
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 12, 2020, 02:38:30 PM
Nice to see all the balanced posting from SNP
Who mentioned SNP?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 12, 2020, 03:06:01 PM
Just been watching "Politics Live" and the ladidahs, especially Andrea Leadsom haven't a f**k*ng clue as to how the populous earn a living. All this "working from home" sh*t*. They seem to think the majority of the population work in offices, in front of computers and with telephones on their desks. They obviously have no idea about the millions who work in factories, warehouses, shops, garages, schools, hospitals and such. The intellectually elite are such a bunch of w**k*rs. Thank goodness they are all crammed into their enclave in the south-east. Perhaps the Covid 19 will cull them to a more manageable level.
#
Sky news has cases by area:
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-many-cases-are-in-your-local-authority-11953077

Kesnington and Chelsea has 15 cases.

No-one mentions it,.

It should be locked down...but it's LONDON..

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 12, 2020, 03:41:16 PM
Nice to see all the balanced posting from SNP

Hold on there, this isn't twitter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 12, 2020, 04:21:00 PM
We had a lucky escape from Corbyna-2019 virus infecting our government in December 2019. this kind of left wing virus is capable of destroying the whole economy within a few years of a country being infected.  Ian Blackford says an independent Scotland would have the right not to have coronavirus as it is being forced on them by westminster, he says Scotland deserves to have its own virus and they would choose the sturgeon virus, don't know it it is the same virus that has made the sturgeon an endangered species but it may have jumped species - can't be too careful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 12, 2020, 08:57:13 PM
Nice to see all the balanced posting from SNP
I am definitely NOT SNP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jazzaro on March 12, 2020, 10:09:53 PM

Looking at the numbers, we are roughly where Italy was two weeks ago, and they say the virus incubates in 10-14 days. So the cases that will emerge in two weeks are being infected NOW.

Now look at the situation in Italy, and consider the measures they are having to take. Our government seem to be crossing their fingers and hoping... what have they actually done to minimise transmission in the general public?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Here are world numbers, by country.
Italy is officially closed, as you can read in your newpapers. Fortunately our prime minister now is following not economists but scientists, and our way is to close schools and activities to stop the diffusion of the virus. Schools are important, because children are not so good in hygiene (do not touch each other, do not touch their own face, wash their hands frequently, ....). According some doctors of our hospitals, the virus travels using "droplets" coming by coughs and sneezes, and people can get the virus by inspiring droplets if they are close to infected guys but also (and especially) if they touch objects and surfacese that have been touched by infected people, as door or bus handles, walls, tables, chairs and so on.  And since the virus keeps alive in surfaces  for long time, it's very important to wash your hands frequently and do not touch your face with dirty hands.
Some numbers: at this moment, the 98% of italian deaths are people over 68years, but only the 2/3 of them had other diseases (hearth, diabhete, ashma or other health problems) added to the Covid19. Younger people more easily survive, but they have to get heavy respiratory assistance; this is the biggest problem, the number of hospital beds with respiratory assistance.
I agree, Italy is 10-15 days in advance than France, Germany, Uk and other european countries, but all these countries will follow Italy if they do not copy what we are doing now. Belgium decided to close schools and activities right now, I hope you will do the same as soon as possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on March 12, 2020, 10:31:31 PM
People might find this link useful to follow the evolution of Corona Virus COVID-19 from Public Heath England - Total UK cases COVID-19 Cases Update.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

Expand the graphs by using the disappearing buttons!

Also the map to show your local area in England. Be patient in the way you manipulate the map.

The site takes awhile to load and needs playing with to get the full benefit.  :( Once you have mastered it, it is very worthwhile.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 12, 2020, 11:32:09 PM

I agree, Italy is 10-15 days in advance than France, Germany, Uk and other european countries, but all these countries will follow Italy if they do not copy what we are doing now. Belgium decided to close schools and activities right now, I hope you will do the same as soon as possible.

Thanks for your contribution from Italy.
Like you I feel that the UK government is not being proactive enough about the situation.
We are approx 2weeks behind Italy in terms of the spread of the virus but the government is not taking the opportunity to learn from your experience or that of the likes of Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan.
I also agree with you regarding school closures. Young people may not be severely affected by the virus but may be acting as carriers of the disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 13, 2020, 02:00:10 AM
The Four Stage Strategy explained...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 13, 2020, 08:33:42 AM
The Four Stage Strategy explained...


Yes minister was brilliant, apparently it is very popular in India where they have a civil service along the lines of ours but can be more obstructive and gets less done.

Strangely Dads Army very popular in Germany of all places...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 13, 2020, 09:55:54 AM
I have anti-bac wipes in the car (actually floor wipes) and when I get out of the car I wipe down the steering wheel, gear lever and handbrake. No point in leaving something to pick up next time I get in the car (Covid 19 survives 72 hours on hard surfaces). I then use the wipe on the handrail as I climb the 6 flights of stairs to my flat. Then it is wipe in the bin and hands washed with anti-bac soap. I feel that Covid 19 won't get in my house unless I invite it in. A bit like vampires!
My wife thinks I am over the top, but I am 71 and suffer from chest infections (heavy smoker for many years), she has just finished chemo, her mother in 95, her daughter suffers from acute asthma and my grandson has a reduced immune system to help combat his blindness. Things could come back to bite her.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 13, 2020, 10:01:50 AM
My wife thinks I am over the top, but I am 71 and suffer from chest infections (heavy smoker for many years), she has just finished chemo, her mother in 95, her daughter suffers from acute asthma and my grandson has a reduced immune system to help combat his blindness. Things could come back to bite her.

I think a lot of older folk reckon it's all over the top, but better safe than sorry I say. I keep drilling it into my oldies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jazzaro on March 13, 2020, 10:26:33 AM
I have anti-bac wipes in the car (actually floor wipes) and when I get out of the car I wipe down the steering wheel, gear lever and handbrake. No point in leaving something to pick up next time I get in the car (Covid 19 survives 72 hours on hard surfaces). I then use the wipe on the handrail as I climb the 6 flights of stairs to my flat. Then it is wipe in the bin and hands washed with anti-bac soap.
Very very very good approach, the only thing missing is to change your clothes as you enter home.
We have to start thinking as  researchers in biolabs...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 13, 2020, 10:28:05 AM
I have anti-bac wipes in the car (actually floor wipes)

Absolutely do everything you can, but Covid-19 is a virus not a bacterium so the wipes will not kill it unfortunately.

The stockpiling of antibacterial hand gels is kind of pointless. You need a product containing greater than 60% alcohol, so even those people making homemade products using Vodka are wasting their time.

My solution is a nice 18yo Malt.

I don't swab with it. I sip it and let the cares of the world drift away whilst I watch The Andromeda Strain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 13, 2020, 10:52:26 AM
Covid-19 is a virus not a bacterium so the wipes will not kill it unfortunately.
The NHS recommends hand sanitiser if soap and water is not available. The following is from Dettol. Doubt they are telling lies. As they say, Covid 19 has not been available for testing.

Specific Dettol products have demonstrated effectiveness (>99.9% inactivation) against coronavirus strains from the same family as the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in third party laboratory testing, when used in accordance with the directions for use.  These products are: Dettol Antibacterial Surface Cleanser Spray, Dettol Antibacterial Surface Cleanser Wipes, Dettol All-In-One Disinfectant Spray, and Dettol Disinfectant Liquid.

I am currently internally sanitising with Pogues Irish single malt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 13, 2020, 11:10:40 AM
Covid-19 is a virus not a bacterium so the wipes will not kill it unfortunately.
The NHS recommends hand sanitiser if soap and water is not available. The following is from Dettol. Doubt they are telling lies. As they say, Covid 19 has not been available for testing.

Specific Dettol products have demonstrated effectiveness (>99.9% inactivation) against coronavirus strains from the same family as the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in third party laboratory testing, when used in accordance with the directions for use.  These products are: Dettol Antibacterial Surface Cleanser Spray, Dettol Antibacterial Surface Cleanser Wipes, Dettol All-In-One Disinfectant Spray, and Dettol Disinfectant Liquid.

I am currently internally sanitising with Pogues Irish single malt.

Good to hear. I have plenty of Dettol. And whisky.

(Edit to correct spelling of Detail)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 13, 2020, 12:03:57 PM
unlike a bacterium a virus is not alive, just a package of DNA hell bent on reproducing itself in a suitable host and having that host pass it on to as many other suitable hosts as possible.  Any hand gel or wash needs to either remove the virus from skin and flush it away ( traditional washing )  or disrupt the packaging or DNA as to make it unviable ( either knock the spiky things off it so that it cannot latch onto human cells or break up its DNA) and maybe leave it on your skin in an inactivated state... So it looks like alcohol is beneficial on your skin to kill harmful stuff,  but definitely not beneficial once it gets inside your body and starts making nasty chemicals.

Scientists already know that alcohol consumption damages human DNA https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180103132629.htm    so maybe the virus gets drunk on the gel and blitzes its own DNA. 

Once your body has met and survived a virus it adds the bad guys DNA to its rogues gallery of DNA that tried to kill you and the cells responsible for your security ( mainly T cells ) do a stop and identify on any stray DNA they find on the loose in your body and if they find some they warn the other cells what to look out for ( send for backup ) and zap the bad guy before it has chance to get very far...   

https://health.howstuffworks.com/human-body/systems/immune/immune-system3.htm

https://health.howstuffworks.com/human-body/systems/immune/immune-system4.htm

we are born with an absolute miracle of a functioning system that has been honed by trial and error over billions of years from the very first single cell stuff that preceded us through to where we are today,  we owe some part of us to them all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 13, 2020, 12:29:38 PM
Covid-19 is a virus not a bacterium so the wipes will not kill it unfortunately.
The NHS recommends hand sanitiser if soap and water is not available. The following is from Dettol. Doubt they are telling lies. As they say, Covid 19 has not been available for testing.

Specific Dettol products have demonstrated effectiveness (>99.9% inactivation) against coronavirus strains from the same family as the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in third party laboratory testing, when used in accordance with the directions for use.  These products are: Dettol Antibacterial Surface Cleanser Spray, Dettol Antibacterial Surface Cleanser Wipes, Dettol All-In-One Disinfectant Spray, and Dettol Disinfectant Liquid.

I am currently internally sanitising with Pogues Irish single malt.

Lots of Dettol here.

Mu hands are starting to roughen due to continued washing .. O Keefe's  Wriking Man's Cream works wonders - on my hands that is..


When I watch the lack of hygiene at Asda (shoppers that is) I am surprised we don't have an outbreak of many diseases...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 13, 2020, 01:28:56 PM
My wife thinks I am over the top, but I am 71 and suffer from chest infections (heavy smoker for many years), she has just finished chemo, her mother in 95, her daughter suffers from acute asthma and my grandson has a reduced immune system to help combat his blindness. Things could come back to bite her.

I think a lot of older folk reckon it's all over the top, but better safe than sorry I say. I keep drilling it into my oldies.

Just had loads of texts from my daughter telling me to stay in and watch Netflix "Do not go to Supermarkets!!" was her instruction. I am an asthma sufferer (although well controlled) and I am on hormone treatment for prostate cancer which can lower immunity although not as bad as chemo which, thankfully, I haven't needed.

Just got back from Sainsbury's as it happens (didn't tell her that!) and it was full of old codgers and biddies like me and the missus. I'm not going again - home delivery until it's peaked.

And what's the deal with dried pasta? Genuinely bemused.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 13, 2020, 01:39:14 PM
Meantime the EU slowly winds itself up to make any meaningful response to the Virus, and as usual they are playing pass the parcel..... EU is a dinosaur with 27 brains -  2 control its ears,  1 its tongue,  4 its legs etc. there is no real-time connection between them, none of them want to pay anything,  if they respond to the virus like the refugee / economic migrant crisis there will be NGO ships picking up viruses on the African coast and bringing them to EU and they will be setting quotas of virus for each member to accept, Germany will throw its borders open and welcome most of them. The democrats / liberals / socialists will be complaining that the government is not letting enough viruses in and will be boarding aircraft to stop viruses being repatriated... yes we have seen it all before.


https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/03/lagarde-von-der-leyen-and-merkel-have-all-failed-to-take-charge-of-europes-response-to-the-coronavirus.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Friday%2013th%20March%202020&utm_content=Friday%2013th%20March%202020+CID_627a8fac70db1f51fe0439c4237be22b&
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 13, 2020, 02:37:39 PM
Meantime the EU slowly winds itself up to make any meaningful response to the Virus, and as usual they are playing pass the parcel..... EU is a dinosaur with 27 brains -  2 control its ears,  1 its tongue,  4 its legs etc. there is no real-time connection between them, none of them want to pay anything,  if they respond to the virus like the refugee / economic migrant crisis there will be NGO ships picking up viruses on the African coast and bringing them to EU and they will be setting quotas of virus for each member to accept, Germany will throw its borders open and welcome most of them. The democrats / liberals / socialists will be complaining that the government is not letting enough viruses in and will be boarding aircraft to stop viruses being repatriated... yes we have seen it all before.


https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/03/lagarde-von-der-leyen-and-merkel-have-all-failed-to-take-charge-of-europes-response-to-the-coronavirus.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Friday%2013th%20March%202020&utm_content=Friday%2013th%20March%202020+CID_627a8fac70db1f51fe0439c4237be22b&

I thought it was being left to individual countries to decide their policies
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: VicW on March 13, 2020, 03:00:29 PM
And what's the deal with dried pasta? Genuinely bemused.

Dried pasta is easily kept, does not require specialist storage just a cupboard. It can be eaten with many things including pasta sauce which comes in bottles and again is easy to store.
It's toilet roll panic buying that makes no sense and appears to have been started by the media picture of the shopper in Australia with trolley loads of toilet roll.
The virus might give you a runny nose but not a runny arse.

Vic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 13, 2020, 03:21:07 PM
And what's the deal with dried pasta? Genuinely bemused.

Dried pasta is easily kept, does not require specialist storage just a cupboard. It can be eaten with many things including pasta sauce which comes in bottles and again is easy to store.
It's toilet roll panic buying that makes no sense and appears to have been started by the media picture of the shopper in Australia with trolley loads of toilet roll.
The virus might give you a runny nose but not a runny arse.

Vic.

I guess that's right Vic but the same buying strategy hasn't been applied to other non perishables judging by my visit to Sainsbury's today. I'm hoping to survive on tinned apricots and instant mash ;D ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 13, 2020, 03:27:44 PM
Interesting discussion on UK government's strategy going on here

https://twitter.com/wtgowers/status/1238395750360461312

Good explanatory graphics here
https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

Large increase in confirmed cases of corana virus in last 24 hours in Iran, mainland Europe (especially Spain ) and UK .
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Scroll down
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 13, 2020, 04:16:03 PM
Interesting discussion on UK government's strategy going on here

https://twitter.com/wtgowers/status/1238395750360461312

Good explanatory graphics here
https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

if 5% of all infections are critical and 60% of the population is infected, my simple sums say that is 3% of the total population are critical and infected.  With 66m people, that is 1.9M people,

The NHS could not cope with 190,000 in 6 months let alone 1.9M.

And to say the vulnerable will be protected is BS>> many are alive and living in normal homes but with heart/lung issues... 

But wdik, I just do teh maths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 13, 2020, 04:54:17 PM
I thought it was being left to individual countries to decide their policies
Health affairs are decided by individual states but they do have a video conference every day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 13, 2020, 04:55:10 PM

But wdik, I just do teh maths.

They seem to be gambling on building up a herd immunity by infecting 60% -80% of the population but don't know if that will happen. It seems like one huge gamble and is at odds with the rest of the world.
I can't see the NHS coping with the numbers.
I hope they know what they are doing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 13, 2020, 04:59:31 PM
I thought it was being left to individual countries to decide their policies
Health affairs are decided by individual states but they do have a video conference every day.

Seems like a sensible idea (to share information)
Oh wait a minute.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 13, 2020, 05:48:47 PM
Interesting discussion on UK government's strategy going on here

https://twitter.com/wtgowers/status/1238395750360461312

Good explanatory graphics here
https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

if 5% of all infections are critical and 60% of the population is infected, my simple sums say that is 3% of the total population are critical and infected.  With 66m people, that is 1.9M people,

The NHS could not cope with 190,000 in 6 months let alone 1.9M.

And to say the vulnerable will be protected is BS>> many are alive and living in normal homes but with heart/lung issues... 

But wdik, I just do teh maths.
Analysis here
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/how-many-will-die-of-coronavirus-in-the-uk-a-closer-look-at-the-numbers

More analysis of herd immunity policy
https://twitter.com/wtgowers/status/1238521840554868739

Last edit Added second twitter thread
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: VicW on March 13, 2020, 06:53:25 PM
I guess that's right Vic but the same buying strategy hasn't been applied to other non perishables judging by my visit to Sainsbury's today. I'm hoping to survive on tinned apricots and instant mash ;D ;D

Why panic buy on tinned tomatoes ?
We are going to survive on fish finger sandwiches with tomato sauce.

Vic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 13, 2020, 10:22:41 PM
My ex developed a serious medical condition last year. She spent a long time in hospital and now needs virtually round the clock assistance. Until this can be put in place (!) she has been moved to a private care home. My daughter has informed me that the place is now in lockdown, with no visitors except in serious emergency situations. They want to keep the old folk isolated for their safety.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 14, 2020, 08:14:44 AM
Jocko it seems like you and your nearest and dearest are afflicted with a number of conditions. My thoughts are with you as we pass through this most difficult period. It really needs society to pull together to help each other right now by helping ourselves to keep well, being ready to help others when they need it and staying away from the vulnerable until the peak has passed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 14, 2020, 08:52:14 AM
My wife is completely denying Covid 19. She says she has no intention of catching it. End of story! Her attitude is worrying me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: guest8810 on March 14, 2020, 11:38:21 AM
My wife is completely denying Covid 19. She says she has no intention of catching it. End of story! Her attitude is worrying me.

My thoughts are with you Jocko.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 14, 2020, 11:59:04 AM
Just read a column from a palliative care doctor - Rachel Clarke. She expresses concern that many older relatives might be a bit cavalier about the virus especially given that they are overwhelmingly the most vulnerable group. Ideally, she says, all over 70s should practice self isolation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 14, 2020, 12:12:29 PM
Just read a column from a palliative care doctor - Rachel Clarke. She expresses concern that many older relatives might be a bit cavalier about the virus especially given that they are overwhelmingly the most vulnerable group. Ideally, she says, all over 70s should practice self isolation.

An awful lot of over 70's have isolation imposed on them all the time, it is not their lifestyle choice...

It is the ones with lots of grandkids who will probably be in the most clear and present danger,  kids are very generous with their germs,  proper little incubators they are.  My older brothers and their wives are sick a lot of the time from the presents continually bought into their house by grandkids - one of these times it will be something fatal.  If the schools and child care gets closed the parents will need to keep working so guess where the kids will end up ?

Oh well,  at least it is not fleas from brown rats that will infect us this time...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 14, 2020, 02:19:46 PM
Just read a column from a palliative care doctor - Rachel Clarke. She expresses concern that many older relatives might be a bit cavalier about the virus especially given that they are overwhelmingly the most vulnerable group. Ideally, she says, all over 70s should practice self isolation.
A good article.
What I found most frightening was the bit about prioritising resources. While the initial priority is to protect the elderly, in the event of pressure on overstretched resources it is likely that priority will be given to the younger and fitter poulation.

In effect, doctors will be forced to play God.

" If our mortality rates mirror China’s, one in seven of octogenarians who contract coronavirus will die from it. These are odds too serious to ignore: not least when an overwhelmed NHS may end up being forced, as is happening in Italy right now, to restrict the use of ventilators to the under-65s."

Here is another article on this dilemma

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-outbreak-older-people-doctors-treatment-ethics
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 14, 2020, 02:32:21 PM
In effect, doctors will be forced to play God.
Just standard Triage procedure. Those that will die even with care. Those that will die without care but will survive with care. Those that will survive without care.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 14, 2020, 02:47:12 PM
In effect, doctors will be forced to play God.
Just standard Triage procedure. Those that will die even with care. Those that will die without care but will survive with care. Those that will survive without care.
No
 They could be be choosing between two people who would recover with care.
OR
in this situation from the article
"Consider that the person first in the queue suffering from Covid-19 is an older – but not elderly – person, with an underlying lung condition that means they need critical care. Treatment would not be futile – it might save their life – but to choose to treat them would require an extended period of critical care and the outcome would be uncertain. The next two people in the queue are of similar age and have been hit hard by the virus, but they do not suffer with underlying lung problems. They are more likely to survive.

They also need critical care to get them over the worst effects of the virus, but because they have no underlying health conditions they will pass out of the danger zone faster, meaning that both of them are likely to be saved in less time, and for less resource, than it would take to try to save the first patient. In this scenario, assuming that all three cannot be given critical care, it appears to make sense to treat the person who will take up fewer resources with a more certain outcome and free up the bed faster."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 14, 2020, 03:18:40 PM
Just been watching "Politics Live" and the ladidahs, especially Andrea Leadsom haven't a f**k*ng clue as to how the populous earn a living. All this "working from home" sh*t*. They seem to think the majority of the population work in offices, in front of computers and with telephones on their desks. They obviously have no idea about the millions who work in factories, warehouses, shops, garages, schools, hospitals and such. The intellectually elite are such a bunch of w**k*rs. Thank goodness they are all crammed into their enclave in the south-east. Perhaps the Covid 19 will cull them to a more manageable level.
They live in a completely different world.
Unfortunately it is almost inevitable that it will be those outside their enclave who will suffer the cull.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-outbreak-inequality-austerity-pandemic
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 14, 2020, 06:29:10 PM

But wdik, I just do teh maths.

They seem to be gambling on building up a herd immunity by infecting 60% -80% of the population but don't know if that will happen. It seems like one huge gamble and is at odds with the rest of the world.
I can't see the NHS coping with the numbers.
I hope they know what they are doing.

It is absolute muppetry.
That sounds harsh but it is absolute stupidity.

To achieve herd immunity, that requires c 60% of the population get Covid-19.
 That is 40 Million...
Based on stats, 2% will die. That is 800,000.
How long will it take? How many years?  If it is months, the NHS will collapse and we will be burying 60,000 victims  (or so ) a month.



If it is years, then no other country will accept UK citizens who may (or may not) be infected  and will infect everyone around them.. We will become world pariahs... No UK holidays in Spain, the US, round the world cruises etc...


And finally viruses mutate. So immunity to the current virus does not give immunity to a mutated one..(see influenza).

So we are pursuing a highly deadly policy with No prospect of success..

Frankly the people who thought up this, have not a clue. They have not thought through teh consequences.

They should be fired at once and never allowed to make policy again.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 14, 2020, 08:17:00 PM

But wdik, I just do teh maths.

They seem to be gambling on building up a herd immunity by infecting 60% -80% of the population but don't know if that will happen. It seems like one huge gamble and is at odds with the rest of the world.
I can't see the NHS coping with the numbers.
I hope they know what they are doing.

It is absolute muppetry.
That sounds harsh but it is absolute stupidity.

To achieve herd immunity, that requires c 60% of the population get Covid-19.
 That is 40 Million...
Based on stats, 2% will die. That is 800,000.
How long will it take? How many years?  If it is months, the NHS will collapse and we will be burying 60,000 victims  (or so ) a month.



If it is years, then no other country will accept UK citizens who may (or may not) be infected  and will infect everyone around them.. We will become world pariahs... No UK holidays in Spain, the US, round the world cruises etc...


And finally viruses mutate. So immunity to the current virus does not give immunity to a mutated one..(see influenza).

So we are pursuing a highly deadly policy with No prospect of success..

Frankly the people who thought up this, have not a clue. They have not thought through teh consequences.

They should be fired at once and never allowed to make policy again.

It seems like that to me but I'm hoping that they know what they are doing. (Nothing else we can do now).
They must have a lot more knowledge and access to a lot more information than will be released to the public and will have developed sophisticated computer models rather than back of the fag packet calculations.
I'm hoping that these models have taken into account real life situations in which everybody is not able to self-isolate as planned.
Do they take into account the homeless and those living in hostels,  peple living cheek by jowel in overcrowded housing.( Not everybody has the luxury of a spare bedroom and bathroom)  the disabled (who may not be completely independent)  and those who have to go out to work in order to earn a living or those dependent on benefits?
Do they take into account human foibles -alcoholism, drug addiction, boredom, racism resulting in civil disorder --?
There will doubtless be other as yet unknown consequences.
The figures we get for UK will be distorted now by the fact that they are no longer testing anybody except those in hospitals.
They had about a month to learn from the countries affected first by the virus and get a grip on things when the number of cases was increasing slowly but we must now be approaching the situation where the cases will increase exponentially as they have in mainland Europe.
Despite what the politicians say about the approach being science led, I think that a lot is based on politics.

Hopefully a vaccine will be available in about a year.

Here is another excellent article. I don't know if I have posted this before but it has been updated since I first read it.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 14, 2020, 08:50:42 PM
They keep saying that we are not following the plans that the rest of Europe are implementing, but the rest of Europe is a shambles. I think we are in a good position because we are behind the levels elsewhere in Europe and can learn from other countries what works and what doesn't. I actually trust that the advice being given is the best available. Herd immunity needs 60% of the population to have been infected and recovered. But as more people do recover then fewer of the people you come into contact are likely to be infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 14, 2020, 10:07:21 PM
we are be hind the levels elsewhere in Europe and can learn from other countries what works and what doesn't.

That's what we should have done and also learned from the SE Asian countries which had experience of epidemic control with the SARS virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 14, 2020, 11:02:34 PM
So we are pursuing a highly deadly policy with No prospect of success..

Frankly the people who thought up this, have not a clue. They have not thought through teh consequences.

They should be fired at once and never allowed to make policy again.

I was listening to a programme on R4 earlier in the evening, it was a profile of the Chief Medical Adviser to the UK Government, Chris Whitty.

It was very interesting, and there was a contribution from Professor John Ashton, the chap who Fiona Bruce had difficulty shutting down on QT. Whilst he praised Whitty for his knowledge and abilities, he said in this siituation, he is completely out of his depth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 15, 2020, 06:31:43 AM
So we are pursuing a highly deadly policy with No prospect of success..

Frankly the people who thought up this, have not a clue. They have not thought through teh consequences.

They should be fired at once and never allowed to make policy again.

I was listening to a programme on R4 earlier in the evening, it was a profile of the Chief Medical Adviser to the UK Government, Chris Whitty.

It was very interesting, and there was a contribution from Professor John Ashton, the chap who Fiona Bruce had difficulty shutting down on QT. Whilst he praised Whitty for his knowledge and abilities, he said in this siituation, he is completely out of his depth.

I saw John Ashton. He was very calm, lucid and logical. And also had his feet on the ground being practical.

The suggestions I have read suggest cocooning all care home using volunteers..
That will not work as there will be insufficient volunteers ecept from the retired.

I read to day a suggestion the over 70s  should be lcoked down at home for months.
And who will collect their shopping etc..?
There are 11.8M over  65s in the UK: 5.4M are over 75..

Whomever is making these suggestions is not living in the real world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 15, 2020, 06:34:38 AM
So we are pursuing a highly deadly policy with No prospect of success..

Frankly the people who thought up this, have not a clue. They have not thought through teh consequences.

They should be fired at once and never allowed to make policy again.

I was listening to a programme on R4 earlier in the evening, it was a profile of the Chief Medical Adviser to the UK Government, Chris Whitty.

It was very interesting, and there was a contribution from Professor John Ashton, the chap who Fiona Bruce had difficulty shutting down on QT. Whilst he praised Whitty for his knowledge and abilities, he said in this siituation, he is completely out of his depth.

I saw John Ashton. He was very calm, lucid and logical. And also had his feet on the ground being practical.

The suggestions I have read suggest cocooning all care home using volunteers..
That will not work as there will be insufficient volunteers ecept from the retired.

I read to day a suggestion the over 70s  should be lcoked down at home for months.
And who will collect their shopping etc..?
There are 11.8M over  65s in the UK: 5.4M are over 75..

Whomever is making these suggestions is not living in the real world.


 If you want to know where cases are , read: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-tracker-how-many-cases-are-in-your-area-updated-daily-11956258

Based on that, the logical conclusion is to lockdown London. Especially Kensington and Westminster!!!
(more cases , greater density of cases)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 09:34:29 AM
They keep saying that we are not following the plans that the rest of Europe are implementing, but the rest of Europe is a shambles. I think we are in a good position because we are behind the levels elsewhere in Europe and can learn from other countries what works and what doesn't.

We are doing exactly what Italy was doing weeks ago. Relying on individuals to decide their own social distancing.

Herd immunity needs 60% of the population to have been infected and recovered. But as more people do recover then fewer of the people you come into contact are likely to be infected.

But does herd immunity even exist for this virus?

There was evidence from Japan two weeks ago that the virus can become dormant, giving a negative test, later to return to a full blown infection. The only other explanation is re-infection, which certainly blows 'herd immunity' out of the water.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 09:36:42 AM
Just to add, a recent poll suggested that 25% of the population have not modified their behaviour at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 15, 2020, 10:38:15 AM
The over 70's thing is quite sensible I think and should come in soon. As for me and my wife, we've already started reducing contact. I am asthmatic, have prostate cancer (not terminal thankfully) and type 2 diabetes. My wife suffers from hypothyroidism.

On-line food deliveries are the way to go but tried to get a delivery from Tesco and slots filling up fast. Planning on using as many different providers as possible and keep booking into the future as far as possible. Fortunately my daughter can also help if necessary.

4 months is being proposed so that's our holiday up the spout (already booked and paid for). Just wondering, though, if self isolation would prevent you from, say, on a nice day, getting in the car and going for a drive?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 15, 2020, 10:45:28 AM
The plan for over 70s to stay at home for 4 months is all very well but totally impractical. I am over 70 but I have to take my wife for medical appointments (and having worked in the NHS I know that the worst place to contract infections is in a hospital). I am also the only driver, so I have to go shopping. Getting the shopping delivered by the supermarket is fine when only 7% (made up number) use that service, but not when 50% want to use it. The supermarkets do not have enough vans (hire more?) and certainly not enough drivers.
Does the government requisition the countries couriers to deliver food, so there will be no online shopping other than food?
I will continue to go out but take the precautions I feel I need to take. If I get it I get it. If I die, well I have to go someway!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jazzaro on March 15, 2020, 11:02:04 AM
We are doing exactly what Italy was doing weeks ago. Relying on individuals to decide their own social distancing.
Italy started to close  schools 3 weeks ago, closing also areas where the virus was growing faster. After 12-15 days, the government decided to close alzo  many activities leaving opened only supermarkets  and drugstores;  where and when possible, workers have been set in smark working (a new entry for Italy),  factories have been closes or set in "half mode", trying to keep workers spaced out. 
Quote
But does herd immunity even exist for this virus?
We still don't know it, and trying to  achieve it without vaxines would mean a huge quantity of deaths.
Who is this?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-dr-christian-jessen-italy-outbreak-embarrassing-bodies-siesta-a9399071.html?fbclid=IwAR0arA38Ud26NOKPnSr6im429psHcC4xj3jmzg-gOIQ35BntaRNSI5DDTM0
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 15, 2020, 11:04:46 AM
Good point about the lack of delivery drivers. The Ocado website is down so the home delivery system might soon collapse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 15, 2020, 11:33:47 AM
They keep saying that we are not following the plans that the rest of Europe are implementing, but the rest of Europe is a shambles. I think we are in a good position because we are behind the levels elsewhere in Europe and can learn from other countries what works and what doesn't.

We are doing exactly what Italy was doing weeks ago. Relying on individuals to decide their own social distancing.

Herd immunity needs 60% of the population to have been infected and recovered. But as more people do recover then fewer of the people you come into contact are likely to be infected.

But does herd immunity even exist for this virus?


There was evidence from Japan two weeks ago that the virus can become dormant, giving a negative test, later to return to a full blown infection. The only other explanation is re-infection, which certainly blows 'herd immunity' out of the water.

NO..https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/14-of-recovered-coronavirus-patients-in-chinas-guangdong-tested-positive-again

The Government's strategy is designed to kill OAPs..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on March 15, 2020, 11:35:30 AM
I think there’s becoming a confusion in the terminology. To me, "self-isolation" is to minimise close contact with others (or places where the virus may be loitering) in order to reduce the risk of catching the bug. I’m happy to self-isolate provided I can go out to exercise and get some fresh air. However, if you have either been in recent close contact with an infected person or are showing some of the virus symptoms then there's need to be shut away so that's "quarantine". However, it seems that governments have now applied “self-isolation” for both situations which adds to the general confusion as there's a difference between trying to avoid catching it (applies to everyone but higher risk people need to be more careful) and minimising the risk of spreading it (only applies to those who may have got it).

Personally, I'm feelng fairly fit so I'd like to get my encounter with the virus over and done with, hope that I come out of the encounter with some immunity and can get on with life while accepting the risk that I could end up in a wooden box (there's plenty of other aspects to life, such as crossing a road, which can end up with that result).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 15, 2020, 11:46:33 AM
The talk is about over 70s staying at home, not to prevent spreading the virus but to avoid catching it. And anyone with a temperature of 37.8°C or above or a persistent new cough must stay at home and quarantine while there. They are now talking about the whole household must stay at home for at least 7 days.
They are also bringing in legislation that anyone who is sick and goes out can be arrested and put into quarantine (China did that 2 months ago).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: VicW on March 15, 2020, 11:56:52 AM
The proposal that over 70's must stay at home is unworkable for the period of weeks they are talking about. Yet again it is assumed that everyone can order on line or has relatives who can fetch and carry for them. Such a law could not be policed and would be largely ignored.
My son works for a supermarket delivering grocery orders. They are already working extended hours yet you cannot get a delivery in under three weeks, this will get worse.
The effects of this virus are still considerably less than the usual common cold or seasonal flu.

Vic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 12:23:12 PM
My son works for a supermarket delivering grocery orders. They are already working extended hours yet you cannot get a delivery in under three weeks, this will get worse.

By coincidence, I checked Asda for delivery slots here this morning. Some slots available for Wednesday, and more or less 100% availability after that, so it hasn't struck here yet. However, I have seen folk saying they have booked slots several weeks in advance on social media. I expect the real problems to kick off when older folk are told to self isolate, when families will be trying to book deliveries for their older relatives.

All that said, there are gaping holes in the shelves in the local Asda and Aldi where we shop. Aldi restricting folk to no more than 4 items of each, and Asda, the only restriction seems to be 1 pack of bog roll each - although the shelves are completely empty. Empty shelves in all the expected places, and some not so expected. Things like white bread flour are almost impossible to get hold of locally.

These delivery slots won't be much use if the shops are empty, when most of the delivery services are fulfilled directly from the local stores.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 15, 2020, 12:57:16 PM
The proposal that over 70's must stay at home is unworkable for the period of weeks they are talking about. Yet again it is assumed that everyone can order on line or has relatives who can fetch and carry for them. Such a law could not be policed and would be largely ignored.
My son works for a supermarket delivering grocery orders. They are already working extended hours yet you cannot get a delivery in under three weeks, this will get worse.
The effects of this virus are still considerably less than the usual common cold or seasonal flu.

Vic.

I started by agreeing with that point of view but I'm not so sure now. It kills about 2% of people who get it and a much higher percentage of those over 65. Worst case scenario is up to a million dead and that would overload the crematoria so mass graves would be necessary.

An A and E doctor wrote recently that it's not just people with coronavirus that will overwhelm A and E. If intensive care units are full of people with the virus, where do you treat heart attack, stroke and road traffic accident cases? The UK has been criminally irresponsible over many years in reducing bed numbers so there is little or no slack to be taken up - Italy is struggling and their health services are much better funded than ours.

If you take the oldest and frailest out of the equation, the situation becomes more manageable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on March 15, 2020, 01:38:36 PM

To achieve herd immunity, that requires c 60% of the population get Covid-19.
 That is 40 Million...
Based on stats, 2% will die. That is 800,000.


The initial estimates in February were close to what you are suggesting.

60% of the UK population infected, 95% by the end of June (with the peak at about 15th April).

The mortality rate will be about 1 to 1.5% of the population. The present rate will decline as it is measured against those cases which have been identified. Say 600,000 in UK. That is against the normal level of UK deaths per year of 600,000 so there will be those who die of COVID-19 who would have died anyway but their death will be attributed to COVID-19. Therefore potentially a net increase of 300,000 but all the 300,000 in a concentrated period.

The world number of deaths could be around 60,000,000. Possibly comparable to the number who died from the Spanish Flu epidemic in 1918/9 which was different but much more nasty.

Worth reading to put things into perspective: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

PS Edited 6,000,000 to 60,000,000 world deaths.  :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 01:40:25 PM
The plan for over 70s to stay at home for 4 months is all very well but totally impractical. I am over 70 but I have to take my wife for medical appointments (and having worked in the NHS I know that the worst place to contract infections is in a hospital).

I'm also in a similar position, my 80 year old mum is at hospital every week for the next 4 weeks, and I drive her there. May dad is 85, and has multiple health problems, including heart and respiratory. My other half is asthmatic, and we have two children at school, both in exam years.

What worries me the most is that there are children openly exhibiting cold/flu symptoms and are not even staying at home, they are too worried about missing school with exams coming up. The school are doing nothing, not even extra cleaning of surfaces in the school during the day. This is a school with 1800+ pupils.

I wish they would shut the schools now.


The supermarkets do not have enough vans (hire more?) and certainly not enough drivers.

Is there even enough refrigerated vans in the country for this scale of door to door delivery?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 15, 2020, 01:53:00 PM
My local Asda doesn't have any slots until Thursday, four days hence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 15, 2020, 01:55:40 PM
Austria has banned gatherings of more than 5.

And Fife has seen a 50% increase in cases today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 02:04:00 PM
My local Asda doesn't have any slots until Thursday, four days hence.

Yes, same here now, and very limited slots available on Thurs. That's how it's moved since this morning.

As I said earlier though, stock is zero of many items in the store anyway, so delivered are going out short.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 02:10:18 PM
How the hell are car manufacturers going to switch production to ventilators, as Matt Hancock suggested on Marr this morning?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-uk-manufacturers-urged-to-consider-switching-to-making-ventilators
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 15, 2020, 02:20:53 PM
How the hell are car manufacturers going to switch production to ventilators, as Matt Hancock suggested on Marr this morning?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-uk-manufacturers-urged-to-consider-switching-to-making-ventilators
Just watched his interview with Marr.
It's all magical thinking.
But he's crystal clear.

He is now backtracking on this idea of herd immunity. "herd immunity is not our policy. It is not our goal"
Good article on the Government's policy and herd immunity here
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 15, 2020, 02:23:27 PM
How the hell are car manufacturers going to switch production to ventilators, as Matt Hancock suggested on Marr this morning?
They did it in wartime* - but I listened to him on Andrew Marr and it is not car assembly lines he is talking about but component manufacturers. And not in the next couple of months they are talking about a lot longer time scale. They reckon that however well we manage over the next six months, it could all kick off again come next winter.

*I watched a programme on "Yesterday", a couple of weeks back, called "War Factories" and it was amazing how quickly factories made massive shifts in what they were manufacturing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 02:35:37 PM
How the hell are car manufacturers going to switch production to ventilators, as Matt Hancock suggested on Marr this morning?
They did it in wartime* - but I listened to him on Andrew Marr and it is not car assembly lines he is talking about but component manufacturers. And not in the next couple of months they are talking about a lot longer time scale. They reckon that however well we manage over the next six months, it could all kick off again come next winter.

*I watched a programme on "Yesterday", a couple of weeks back, called "War Factories" and it was amazing how quickly factories made massive shifts in what they were manufacturing.

The difference back then is that we used to actually make things, we were at the forefront of mass manufacturing.

We are talking about manufacturing sophisticated medical equipment. Anyone working in manufacturing of electronic devices in this country now will know that we make virtually no components whatsoever, and most circuit boards are shipped complete from the Far East. We simply do not have the capacity, machinery or expertise for this kind of manufacturing, it all went years ago.

The finished products that are "made in Britain", are largely assembled from semi-finished components from China and the like, often with lead times of many months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 15, 2020, 03:07:31 PM
A completely minor issue but, if we more or less self isolate, I won't be using the car - at all. Four months on the drive. Hopefully if I took it for a 10 mile run once a week to keep things ticking over it would be fine providing over 70's seen driving by the Police aren't banged up!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 15, 2020, 03:25:58 PM
From what they are saying only people who are infected and go out will be forcibly quarantined. I imagine over the 70s being told to stay home for their own wellbeing will be voluntary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: fatlad on March 15, 2020, 03:57:08 PM
Austria has banned gatherings of more than 5.

**what if youre a family of 6+
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 03:58:51 PM
Twitter post from Robert Peston, this morning

Quote
I just spoke to Warren East, chief executive of Rolls-Royce, one of the UK’s most advanced engineering companies. And he says government has not contacted him yet to discuss whether his or his suppliers’ facilities can be repurposed to make the many thousands of respirators...

that @MattHancock confirmed today the NHS badly needs to keep alive #COVIDー19 sufferers with acute symptoms. And he does not know how hard it would be to re-engineer production lines to make the relevant components speedily. Hancock confirmed the government will pay whatever...

it takes in a kind of wartime mobilisation. But we are some way from knowing what is practically possible in the few weeks before the epidemic is expected to reach very challenging proportions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 15, 2020, 04:16:04 PM
Twitter post from Robert Peston, this morning

Quote
I just spoke to Warren East, chief executive of Rolls-Royce, one of the UK’s most advanced engineering companies. And he says government has not contacted him yet to discuss whether his or his suppliers’ facilities can be repurposed to make the many thousands of respirators...

that @MattHancock confirmed today the NHS badly needs to keep alive #COVIDー19 sufferers with acute symptoms. And he does not know how hard it would be to re-engineer production lines to make the relevant components speedily. Hancock confirmed the government will pay whatever...

it takes in a kind of wartime mobilisation. But we are some way from knowing what is practically possible in the few weeks before the epidemic is expected to reach very challenging proportions.


Was it him who was in touch with supermarkets last week?  Matt Hancock that is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 04:50:19 PM
Was it him who was in touch with supermarkets last week?  Matt Hancock that is.

On Sky news this morning, Hancock said they are going to pass emergency legislation this week to force nurseries and schools to STAY OPEN. Not what I want to hear, I'm afraid.

The managing director of Iceland, Richard Walker, threw a bit of a spanner in the works on BBC Question Time when he said they had heard absolutely nothing from the Government, after Stephen Barclay stated that they had formulated a plan with retailers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 15, 2020, 04:54:42 PM
Austria has banned gatherings of more than 5.

And Fife has seen a 50% increase in cases today.

We are in the exponential stage.

London should be locked down now   as it is the key hub of infection... specifically Wetsminster and Kensington and Chelsea..(I do not jest)..

This Government are not serious about it...

I am 72 and fit and I will go where I please (with due caution)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 15, 2020, 05:25:13 PM
I am 72 and fit and I will go where I please (with due caution)
I am 71 and will do the same. My wife and I have just been to a local hotel for afternoon tea. A Christmas present from my daughter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jazzaro on March 15, 2020, 05:29:21 PM

We are in the exponential stage.

London should be locked down now   as it is the key hub of infection... specifically Wetsminster and Kensington and Chelsea..(I do not jest)..

This Government are not serious about it...

I am 72 and fit and I will go where I please (with due caution)
Italy left yesterday the exponential stage; still growing but not so quickly as previous days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 15, 2020, 05:48:29 PM
Austria has banned gatherings of more than 5.

And Fife has seen a 50% increase in cases today.

We are in the exponential stage.

London should be locked down now   as it is the key hub of infection... specifically Wetsminster and Kensington and Chelsea..(I do not jest)..

This Government are not serious about it...

It's getting bad.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11175256/queen-coronavirus-quits-buckingham-palace/

And we don't really know how bad its getting since they stopped testing except in hospitals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jazzaro on March 15, 2020, 06:23:57 PM
On Sky news this morning, Hancock said they are going to pass emergency legislation this week to force nurseries and schools to STAY OPEN. Not what I want to hear, I'm afraid.

Switzerland (close to Lombardia, the northern italian region with many Covid cases) closed many activities but left schools  intentionally open: they think this will help keeping children far from their grandparents. If both parents are at work during the day, this could be a good choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: VicW on March 15, 2020, 06:53:32 PM
The latest wording reference the over 70's uses the word 'advise' them not to go out. They may have realised very quickly that it was not something that could be enforced or be practical in many cases.

Vic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 15, 2020, 06:56:31 PM
Was it him who was in touch with supermarkets last week?  Matt Hancock that is.

On Sky news this morning, Hancock said they are going to pass emergency legislation this week to force nurseries and schools to STAY OPEN. Not what I want to hear, I'm afraid.



Well if kids off school - and with no child care open and parents at work the kids will most probably end up at grandparents, the kids may shrug the virus off,  and maybe their parents,  but grandma and granddad - I doubt it..... 'guess what I have bought you today grandad ?'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on March 15, 2020, 07:02:32 PM
Seven cases in Oxford university http://www.ox.ac.uk/news-and-events/coronavirus-advice and I think that yesterday was the end of term so the students will have gone home. How many carrying the virus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 07:13:54 PM
Switzerland (close to Lombardia, the northern italian region with many Covid cases) closed many activities but left schools  intentionally open: they think this will help keeping children far from their grandparents. If both parents are at work during the day, this could be a good choice.

Obviously, farming children out to grandparents is a none starter.

I read a thread on twitter last night from a nurse with children who was urging school closures. She and her colleagues had discussed the implications of this, and come to the conclusion that it would be fairly straightforward to organise between themselves for childminding duties, and also using older children to mind younger ones.  She suggested that some schools could be kept open with a skeleton staff specifically for employees of the emergency services (and possibly other essential workers) who have no other option.

My children are attending a school of 1800+, and as I said earlier, there are children still attending who have coughs and other symptoms, they are worried about looming exams. What happens if my kids catch this virus at school and then pass it to me, when I am taking my 80 yo mum to hospital every week? What about my other half who is asthmatic, and my 85 yo dad, who is not in the best of health.

I would be happier if they were at home. As things stand, I have no way of controlling what comes into to the house from school.


Well if kids off school - and with no child care open and parents at work the kids will most probably end up at grandparents

I don't see how anybody could imagine that would be an answer. The Government needs to facilitate some other way to deal with this.

My kids are 16 & 18, I don't think I would need to bother their grandparents, in any case. However, they must still attend school, and as far as the school is concerned, exams are going ahead as normal.

They also need to put together a register of people who would be willing to use any skills/qualifications they have to help keep essential services operating... I'm thinking medical, food production, maintenance, deliveries, etc..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 15, 2020, 07:51:39 PM
Cases in Kensington doubled overnight to 40..By next Friday they will be in the 500-700 range
Almost all London boroughs are seriously affected..

London is going to be a dangerous place to be in.
Expect the House of Commons to close in April.

We are cutting our Beekeeping meetings down to essential hive maintenance  of Association hives with minimal attendance. (veils are good things to harbour viruses)

I expect the Government will panic when the deaths reach over 500..end March ish..The NHS has no chance of dealing with it and plans to get more ventialtors are a waste of time when there will be insufficient skilled trained staff  to run them..

Or of course I could be overly pessimistic .. but a dilatory approach still appears to be the norm..

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 15, 2020, 08:04:53 PM
The latest wording reference the over 70's uses the word 'advise' them not to go out. They may have realised very quickly that it was not something that could be enforced or be practical in many cases.

Vic.
I saw a suggestion somewhere today that they just leak these ideas out so that they can gauge public reaction before they adopt a policy.
Despite Matt Hancock's assurances that they are being transparent, I feel that the public is being kept in the dark.
Leaks to press  at night. Express, Mail, Sun and Telegraph interpret it one way . Guardian and Independent another.
We should have some  statement of policy change from the horse's mouth so that we can make up our own minds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 08:17:55 PM
I saw a suggestion somewhere today that they just leak these ideas out so that they can gauge public reaction before they adopt a policy.

I think Michael Heseltine hit the nail on the head two years ago,

“Well, I think that you have to see Boris as a career map. He works it out, he decides which way the wind is blowing, and that wonderful phrase about a politician - a man who waits to see the way the crowd is running and then dashes in front and says, ‘Follow me’.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 15, 2020, 08:20:38 PM
To be fair to my children's generation neither of my 2 daughters think it is even remotely acceptable that we help out with childcare in the current circs. It's not even an issue.

It is, though, a decent reason for keeping schools open for now especially given that the virus poses a relatively mild threat to healthy kids. My own view is that tertiary education, six form colleges and the like, should shut immediately along with Universities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 15, 2020, 08:27:48 PM
My daughter pointed me to this:

In her 2008 book End of Days: Predictions and Prophecies about the End of the World, supposed psychic Sylvia Browne wrote of a pneumonia outbreak ravaging the world.

The book reads: “In around 2020 a severe pneumonia-like illness will spread throughout the globe, attacking the lungs and the bronchial tubes and resisting all known treatments.

“Almost more baffling than the illness itself will be the fact that it will suddenly vanish as quickly as it has arrived, attack again 10 years later, and then disappear completely.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 08:32:25 PM
It is, though, a decent reason for keeping schools open for now especially given that the virus poses a relatively mild threat to healthy kids. My own view is that tertiary education, six form colleges and the like, should shut immediately along with Universities.

I can understand it being a major issue for parents of younger children, but I can't understand why children who are old enough to look after themselves have to attend.

Bear in mind that the Government now ceases to award NI credits for carers of children once they reach the age of 13, on the basis that the carer parent is then able to return to work as they deem the children old enough to look after themselves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 15, 2020, 08:35:28 PM
I saw a suggestion somewhere today that they just leak these ideas out so that they can gauge public reaction before they adopt a policy.

I think Michael Heseltine hit the nail on the head two years ago,

“Well, I think that you have to see Boris as a career map. He works it out, he decides which way the wind is blowing, and that wonderful phrase about a politician - a man who waits to see the way the crowd is running and then dashes in front and says, ‘Follow me’.”

Yes even in such a serious situation as this, with millions of lives at stake, I get the impression that he's winging it and looking towards his own interests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 09:02:20 PM
Interesting development for those of us with kids facing exams this year. I wonder if it will gain any traction?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/cancel-this-years-gsce-and-a-levels

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/gcse-a-level-cancel-risk-lives-infection
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 09:28:57 PM
More criticism of the UK response

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-health-experts-fear-epidemic-will-let-rip-through-uk


...and, for Trump, money can buy anything

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 15, 2020, 10:44:15 PM
More criticism of the UK response

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-health-experts-fear-epidemic-will-let-rip-through-uk


And another two
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/uk-covid-19-strategy-questions-unanswered-coronavirus-outbreak

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 15, 2020, 11:05:28 PM


...and, for Trump, money can buy anything

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine
America first, last and only
Quote from article.

"According to an anonymous source quoted in the newspaper, Trump was doing everything to secure a vaccine against the coronavirus for the US, “but for the US only”."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 15, 2020, 11:28:49 PM
America first, last and only
Quote from article.

"According to an anonymous source quoted in the newspaper, Trump was doing everything to secure a vaccine against the coronavirus for the US, “but for the US only”."

It's shameful and immoral.

I hope the Germans are successful in defending the company.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 16, 2020, 06:29:20 AM
To be fair to my children's generation neither of my 2 daughters think it is even remotely acceptable that we help out with childcare in the current circs. It's not even an issue.

It is, though, a decent reason for keeping schools open for now especially given that the virus poses a relatively mild threat to healthy kids. My own view is that tertiary education, six form colleges and the like, should shut immediately along with Universities.

It's not the effect on chioldren that is the issue.

It is the fact if they catsch it, they spread it to their parents, their grandparents and anyone else they come in contact with. With some extended families living iin a house that could be 10+ people.

On the other hand, naby acrers working in care homes have children at school. They might be unable to work if children were not at school.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 16, 2020, 08:48:05 AM
I have decided to self isolate from this discussion as you are all scaring the ********** out of me and I am perilously low on loo roll.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 16, 2020, 09:00:33 AM
America first, last and only
Quote from article.

"According to an anonymous source quoted in the newspaper, Trump was doing everything to secure a vaccine against the coronavirus for the US, “but for the US only”."

It's shameful and immoral.

I hope the Germans are successful in defending the company.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200314-us-germany-battle-for-virus-vaccine-surpremacy
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 16, 2020, 09:31:15 AM
Lots of labs all over trialing vaccines

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/covid-19-pharmaceutical-company-partnerships-for-coronavirus-vaccines-development/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 16, 2020, 09:35:05 AM
Panic buying in Holland

Quote
People were queuing outside Dutch coffee shops on Sunday to stockpile cannabis ahead of the closure of most public places in the Netherlands, Jennifer Rankin, the Guardian’s Brussels correspondent, reports.

When it became known that Dutch coffee shops would be closing along with cafes and restaurants until 6 April, people rushed to stockpile cannabis. The daily newspaper Volkskrant reported that people were queuing outside coffee shops in cities across the Netherlands.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 16, 2020, 09:45:32 AM
Lots of labs all over trialing vaccines

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/covid-19-pharmaceutical-company-partnerships-for-coronavirus-vaccines-development/

Trials? Many companies are working on it, but afaik nobody has produced a working vaccine yet.

CureVac is hoping to have the first experimental vaccine ready for trials in June/July.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/not-for-sale-anger-in-germany-at-report-trump-seeking-exclusive-coronavirus-vaccine-deal

Quote
The German health minister, Jens Spahn, said a takeover of CureVac by the Trump administration was “off the table”. CureVac would only develop vaccine “for the whole world”, Spahn said, “not for individual countries”.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 16, 2020, 11:11:26 AM
Something really scary this morning. If schools close and people work from home there may not be enough broadband to go round. Imagine being cooped up for several weeks without Netflix? BT reckon they have enough capacity, but an independent specialist doubts that very much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 16, 2020, 11:18:17 AM
Lots of labs all over trialing vaccines

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/covid-19-pharmaceutical-company-partnerships-for-coronavirus-vaccines-development/
Hopefully it will be available worldwide though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 16, 2020, 11:27:56 AM
Vaccines will have to be tested..
And they WILL HAVE to be .
Anyone recall thamidomide?

So expect months of tests...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 16, 2020, 11:51:40 AM
Stopping testing. NB i'm talking here about testing for the corona virus not testing the vaccine as in Madasafish's post.
Sorry about my slow typing.
The politicians keep saying that they are following the science.
The current strategy strategy however has been to self isolate and not test until after a week of self isolation has proved ineffective.
How are people to know it is ineffective?
If they are following the science then surely the testing should be increased rather than decreased.
Without testing  they are relying on guesswork. They don't have an accurate figure for the number of cases.
People may be going to work when they are carrying the virus. Other people may be self- isolating unnecessarily.
Cases will not show up until death.
The mortality rates wiill be unknown since the number of cases is unknown. UK figures will be skewed wrt the rest of the world's.
It seems to me that this is pseudoscience and they are only doing this to massage the figures.
The real scientists will be the fall guys.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 16, 2020, 11:55:29 AM
Vaccines will have to be tested..
And they WILL HAVE to be .
Anyone recall thamidomide?

So expect months of tests...

Yes. It would be tempting to  shorten the testing especially if our American friends are trying to turn it into a commercial race.

Sorry to have gone off at a tangent. I had written a long rant and then posted after you.

Last edit added apology
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 16, 2020, 12:13:09 PM
Stopping testing. NB i'm talking here about testing for the corona virus not testing the vaccine as in Madasafish's post.
Sorry about my slow typing.
The politicians keep saying that they are following the science.
The current strategy strategy however has been to self isolate and not test until after a week of self isolation has proved ineffective.
How are people to know it is ineffective?
If they are following the science then surely the testing should be increased rather than decreased.
Without testing  they are relying on guesswork. They don't have an accurate figure for the number of cases.
People may be going to work when they are carrying the virus. Other people may be self- isolating unnecessarily.
Cases will not show up until death.
The mortality rates wiill be unknown since the number of cases is unknown. UK figures will be skewed wrt the rest of the world's.
It seems to me that this is pseudoscience and they are only doing this to massage the figures.
The real scientists will be the fall guys.

The rest of the world requires two weeks isolation not one.
They are making it up as they go along.
(see hurried pressconferences after football closed down)

And anyone who thinks new products made by engineering companies - RR etc - are going to be in use before several months of extensive testing on live cases-  is nuts..

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 16, 2020, 12:34:05 PM
Next step will be to cancel all elective surgery to free up resources and staff, so that means stuff like hip replacements will be cancelled and only life threatening conditions will get treated. Also there will be a ban on visitors entering hospital - nobody who is not either staff or patients will be allowed in.


Good advice for people is not to sneeze or cough into hands but into the crook of your arm,  but what is happening ? people are panic buying huge amounts of toilet paper,  does this mean a lot of people really do not know their 4R5e from their elbow ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 16, 2020, 12:41:28 PM

Pinched from a reader's letter wrt UK response to Corona virus.
Here is the article referred to which I linked to the other day

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

If you didn't understand William Hannages article, imagine that an even deadlier disease came along, and wiped out 90% of the population. The remaining 10% would have "herd immunity". But this is something that happens naturally, and when all else fails. Its not something that any sensible government would be setting as a policy goal. Instead they would be doing everything they could to contain it, before it ever got to that stage.

I think the real reason, the idea of "herd immunity" has been raised, is as a distraction from the fact that the UK Government has not taken the possibility of an epidemic, as seriously as it should have been doing. It has been apparent for some time, that while countries such as Germany officially have more identified cases, they have far fewer deaths as a result of Coronvirus. And the most likely explanation, is that Germany has been doing a far better job, and identifying the virus and tracking contacts. In other words, Coronavirus is more prevalent in the UK, than the official figures would indicate, simply because the UK has not been testing for it as effectively.

And so now we have moved from a "Containment Phase", where we don't appear to have tried very hard to actually contain the virus, to a "Delay Phase" where the UK Government didn't seem to have any real plans to actually do anything to delay the epidemic. There seems to have been an attitude, that if you give something a fancy name, like "Delay Phase", that alone solves and you can go back to hiding in your refrigerator. It doesn't. A "Delay Phase" means you are supposed to be actively trying to delay the peak of an epidemic, just as "Containment Phase" means that you were supposed to be actively testing for, and tracking the virus.

And that is the reason why the messaging is so confused. They want to appear in charge and like they know what they are doing, but only now, are they realising that there is a serious problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 16, 2020, 12:49:02 PM
Next step will be to cancel all elective surgery to free up resources and staff, so that means stuff like hip replacements will be cancelled and only life threatening conditions will get treated. Also there will be a ban on visitors entering hospital - nobody who is not either staff or patients will be allowed in.

A hospital is the last place you want to be anyway.( maybe literally)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 16, 2020, 01:39:58 PM
The politicians keep saying that they are following the science.
The current strategy strategy however has been to self isolate and not test until after a week of self isolation has proved ineffective.
How are people to know it is ineffective?
If they are following the science then surely the testing should be increased rather than decreased.
Without testing  they are relying on guesswork. They don't have an accurate figure for the number of cases.

I heard a good analogy from an expert on telly this morning. He said it's like turning the lights off on the battlefield in the middle of a war.

One problem is that those in Government now have spent the last 3+ years convincing the Great British public to ignore experts. There are groups of people on social media that still think this is a hoax.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 16, 2020, 01:53:29 PM
The politicians keep saying that they are following the science.
The current strategy strategy however has been to self isolate and not test until after a week of self isolation has proved ineffective.
How are people to know it is ineffective?
If they are following the science then surely the testing should be increased rather than decreased.
Without testing  they are relying on guesswork. They don't have an accurate figure for the number of cases.

I heard a good analogy from an expert on telly this morning. He said it's like turning the lights off on the battlefield in the middle of a war.

One problem is that those in Government now have spent the last 3+ years convincing the Great British public to ignore experts. There are groups of people on social media that still think this is a hoax.

They ARE following experts.. in this field. The Iranians. ;D

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 16, 2020, 02:00:56 PM

One problem is that those in Government now have spent the last 3+ years convincing the Great British public to ignore experts. There are groups of people on social media that still think this is a hoax.
The Great British public is going to be even less impressed with experts when scientists are saddled with the blame when the sh1t hits the fan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 16, 2020, 02:05:47 PM
One of the experts has a full time job apart from Government so could resign at any time if he felt pressured into doing /saying something he did not believe in.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 16, 2020, 03:24:31 PM

If they are following the science then surely the testing should be increased rather than decreased.
Without testing  they are relying on guesswork. They don't have an accurate figure for the number of cases.
People may be going to work when they are carrying the virus. Other people may be self- isolating unnecessarily.
Cases will not show up until death.
The mortality rates wiill be unknown since the number of cases is unknown. UK figures will be skewed wrt the rest of the world's.
It seems to me that this is pseudoscience and they are only doing this to massage the figures.
The real scientists will be the fall guys.

The number of officially confirmed UK #coronavirus cases has risen 171 in the last 24 hours, the LOWEST daily figure since March 12th and probably reflecting the decision no longer to routinely test people with milder symptoms.
2:21 pm · 16 Mar 2020·Twitter Web App
https://twitter.com/BBCMarkEaston/status/1239557527311986688

 8m ago 16:12
WHO: 'test, test, test'
"The head of the World Health Organizaion, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has implored governments to test more suspected cases, warning that they cannot fight the pandemic blindfolded.

In a strongly-worded attack on governments which have neglected or held back testing, he said: “We have not seen an urgent enough escalation in testing, isolation and contact tracing, which is the backbone of the response.”

Tedros added:

The most effective way to prevent infections and save lives is breaking the chains of transmission. And to do that, you must test and isolate. You cannot fight the fire blindfolded. And we cannot stop this pandemic, if we don’t know who is infected. We have a simple message for all countries Test, test, test. Test every suspected case."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/16/coronavirus-live-updates-us-cdc-events-europe-lockdown-uk-deaths-australia-france-italy-spain-update-latest-news?page=with:block-5e6fa49b8f088d75755945cc#block-5e6fa49b8f088d75755945cc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 16, 2020, 04:17:09 PM

If they are following the science then surely the testing should be increased rather than decreased.
Without testing  they are relying on guesswork. They don't have an accurate figure for the number of cases.
People may be going to work when they are carrying the virus. Other people may be self- isolating unnecessarily.
Cases will not show up until death.
The mortality rates wiill be unknown since the number of cases is unknown. UK figures will be skewed wrt the rest of the world's.
It seems to me that this is pseudoscience and they are only doing this to massage the figures.
The real scientists will be the fall guys.

The number of officially confirmed UK #coronavirus cases has risen 171 in the last 24 hours, the LOWEST daily figure since March 12th and probably reflecting the decision no longer to routinely test people with milder symptoms.
2:21 pm · 16 Mar 2020·Twitter Web App
https://twitter.com/BBCMarkEaston/status/1239557527311986688

Take the deaths figures - which lag about 2 weeks from testing to death.
Multiply by 50 to get what the tested confirmed figures would be if they counted..  - for yesterday that would give 50 x 35 =  1750 which is roughly in the order of magnitude.

I did some analysis and came to the conclusion actual cases (reported plus not reported)  were about 10-20 times greater than reported   so that would give (say) 15 x1750  =26,250.

So now we use deaths as a measure since the Government are deliberatley obfuscating to hide their incompetence.

Of course when Westminster and Chelsea and Kensington cases reach about 1,000 eacg (40 each yesterday approx)  - so end next week, they will have to lockdown the areas..to ensure more MPs do not get infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 16, 2020, 05:53:52 PM
You cannot blame the government for everything...

Should we really need to be told not to attend social gatherings, theatres,  sports events, pubs, clubs,  not to travel unnecessarily, not to travel abroad or even within UK if not entirely necessary ?  As for panic buying,  that just shows me how very thin our veneer of civilisation is - and how selfish people can be.

Sure you expect government to prepare the health system by pumping in more funds, cancelling all unnecessary operations and stopping visitors etc.  but everyone needs to do their bit - personally I am horrified on a daily basis that most people who use toilets do not even bother to wash their hands - even after they have used a cubicle to do a #2,  my wife tells me women are as bad if not worse than blokes...  If they cannot be trusted with simple things like washing hands to protect others than heaven help us....

People can be infective even before they show symptoms,  for quite a few days apparently so testing may be closing the stable door after the horse has gone. They are saying now that pets can carry the virus even though not affected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 16, 2020, 06:03:59 PM
You cannot blame the government for everything...

Should we really need to be told not to attend social gatherings, theatres,  sports events, pubs, clubs,  not to travel unnecessarily, not to travel abroad or even within UK if not entirely necessary ? 

Given that Health Minister Nadine Dorries felt unwell in the middle of last week mid outbreak but continued to work,meeting hundreds of people that day - and possibly infecting them all.. the answer to your question is obvious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 16, 2020, 08:29:20 PM
You cannot blame the government for everything...

Should we really need to be told not to attend social gatherings, theatres,  sports events, pubs, clubs,  not to travel unnecessarily, not to travel abroad or even within UK if not entirely necessary ? 

Given that Health Minister Nadine Dorries felt unwell in the middle of last week mid outbreak but continued to work,meeting hundreds of people that day - and possibly infecting them all.. the answer to your question is obvious.

She's blonde so maybe ought to be excused.....


 :P :P :P :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 16, 2020, 08:52:11 PM
You cannot blame the government for everything...

Should we really need to be told not to attend social gatherings, theatres,  sports events, pubs, clubs,  not to travel unnecessarily, not to travel abroad or even within UK if not entirely necessary ?  As for panic buying,  that just shows me how very thin our veneer of civilisation is - and how selfish people can be.

The Government could prohibit any or all of those activities if they chose to.

Yes, people are selfish, and the Government should protect the rest of us from them, not leave OAPs wandering around like zombies looking for a pack of bog roll. Nudge theory? It doesn't work in cases like this.

Why not force all shops to open certain hours for vulnerable groups only for starters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 16, 2020, 10:03:45 PM

Why not force all shops to open certain hours for vulnerable groups only for starters.
Good idea. I had been wondering about going out early or leaving it late but that would risk
queuing-for-bog-roll mobs or empty shelves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 17, 2020, 07:19:41 AM
Policy change.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/new-data-new-policy-why-uks-coronavirus-strategy-has-changed

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/16/johnson-finally-defers-to-experts-as-he-deflects-tricky-covid-questions
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 17, 2020, 09:00:11 AM
I went online to arrange a Tesco home delivery. First available slot - next month! I cannot wait 15 days to have an order delivered. Guess who is going shopping this week?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 17, 2020, 10:07:41 AM
I went online to arrange a Tesco home delivery. First available slot - next month! I cannot wait 15 days to have an order delivered. Guess who is going shopping this week?
Same for my Mother-in-Law. The supermarkets know their customers. It would not be hard for them to give priority or reserved slots to the elderly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 17, 2020, 10:24:30 AM
Day one of lockdown. I have been up for four hours and have now completed all the wee jobs the missus wanted to be done in the house. What will I do for the rest of my 12 weeks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 17, 2020, 11:40:22 AM
...and we now have one of my eldest's teachers at our kids school in self-isolation for covid-19 symptoms.

What's the point in my other half, who is in a vulnerable group, being advised to observe 'social distancing' when our kids are still required to attend this school?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 17, 2020, 12:04:34 PM
I went online to arrange a Tesco home delivery. First available slot - next month! I cannot wait 15 days to have an order delivered. Guess who is going shopping this week?

Did a click and collect today Jocko - less contact. Half our items had been substituted but looking forward to prawn and sprout curry later.

My brother went to his Tesco at 07.30 the other day - hardly anybody around so that's worth thinking about as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 17, 2020, 12:19:21 PM
I went to Asda after 9PM the other day and it was marvellous. Couldn't get some things though.

Speaking to a few people, it sounds like the supermarkets are being hammered today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 17, 2020, 12:26:23 PM
Government’s advice now for those with symptoms is whole family isolation, China’s advice was individual isolation by requisitioning hotels.

Italy now admit that its support for family isolation was an error.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on March 17, 2020, 12:26:41 PM
...and we now have one of my eldest's teachers at our kids school in self-isolation for covid-19 symptoms.

What's the point in my other half, who is in a vulnerable group, being advised to observe 'social distancing' when our kids are still required to attend this school?

It seems that children particularly under the age of fifteen do not have the protein in their lungs that COVID-19 attaches to, so they are generally more protected even if they spread it amongst themselves. They can/will get a more mild flu like illness but unlikely therefore to get the secondary viral pneumonia . They are however still vectors for infection and will be shedding and spreading the virus. So they can bring it into households, to the immuno-supressed and the elderly. Therefore their contact with children should be minimised and the best place for the children is at school rather than being looked after by the elderly at home or wandering the streets. Hence the potential legislation to keep schools open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 17, 2020, 12:33:46 PM
It seems that children particularly under the age of fifteen do not have the protein in their lungs that COVID-19 attaches to, so they are generally more protected even if they spread it amongst themselves. They can/will get a more mild flu like illness but unlikely therefore to get the secondary viral pneumonia . They are however still vectors for infection and will be shedding and spreading the virus. So they can bring it into households, to the immuno-supressed and the elderly. Therefore their contact with children should be minimised and the best place for the children is at school rather than being looked after by the elderly at home or wandering the streets. Hence the potential legislation to keep schools open.

So, what exactly do we do then? The kids can't stay at school 24 hours a day.

Look, I've nothing against schools remaining open per se, but forcing children to attend when they could be at home is wrong, especially when a person with a respiratory illness lives in the same household.

My kids are 16 and 18, they don't need to be looked after by grandparents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 17, 2020, 12:35:12 PM
What are your thoughts on this? The man is sick in the head.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18310479.boris-johnson-makes-last-gasp-joke-lack-ventilators-amid-pandemic/


Quote
Johnson joked that the initiative to build more ventilators could be known as "Operation Last Gasp".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 17, 2020, 12:36:42 PM
...and we now have one of my eldest's teachers at our kids school in self-isolation for covid-19 symptoms.

What's the point in my other half, who is in a vulnerable group, being advised to observe 'social distancing' when our kids are still required to attend this school?

It seems that children particularly under the age of fifteen do not have the protein in their lungs that COVID-19 attaches to, so they are generally more protected even if they spread it amongst themselves. They can/will get a more mild flu like illness but unlikely therefore to get the secondary viral pneumonia . They are however still vectors for infection and will be shedding and spreading the virus. ential legislation to keep schools open.
Have you got a reference for this?
It seems to me very unlikely that so much is known about a new virus at this stage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 17, 2020, 12:41:39 PM
What are your thoughts on this? The man is sick in the head.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18310479.boris-johnson-makes-last-gasp-joke-lack-ventilators-amid-pandemic/


Quote
Johnson joked that the initiative to build more ventilators could be known as "Operation Last Gasp".

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-coronavirus-latest-chris-whitty-press-conference-a9405356.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on March 17, 2020, 12:46:23 PM
...and we now have one of my eldest's teachers at our kids school in self-isolation for covid-19 symptoms.

What's the point in my other half, who is in a vulnerable group, being advised to observe 'social distancing' when our kids are still required to attend this school?

It seems that children particularly under the age of fifteen do not have the protein in their lungs that COVID-19 attaches to, so they are generally more protected even if they spread it amongst themselves. They can/will get a more mild flu like illness but unlikely therefore to get the secondary viral pneumonia . They are however still vectors for infection and will be shedding and spreading the virus. ential legislation to keep schools open.
Have you got a reference for this?
It seems to me very unlikely that so much is known about a new virus at this stage.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/14/coronavirus-plan-emergency-powers-detain-virus-victims-keep/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 17, 2020, 12:52:36 PM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/14/coronavirus-plan-emergency-powers-detain-virus-victims-keep/

Behind a paywall.

None of this explains to me why children should be forced to attend school when they are either old enough to look after themselves, or have suitable childcare at home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 17, 2020, 12:54:11 PM
...and we now have one of my eldest's teachers at our kids school in self-isolation for covid-19 symptoms.

What's the point in my other half, who is in a vulnerable group, being advised to observe 'social distancing' when our kids are still required to attend this school?

It seems that children particularly under the age of fifteen do not have the protein in their lungs that COVID-19 attaches to, so they are generally more protected even if they spread it amongst themselves. They can/will get a more mild flu like illness but unlikely therefore to get the secondary viral pneumonia . They are however still vectors for infection and will be shedding and spreading the virus. ential legislation to keep schools open.
Have you got a reference for this?
It seems to me very unlikely that so much is known about a new virus at this stage.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/14/coronavirus-plan-emergency-powers-detain-virus-victims-keep/
Unfortunately that is behind a paywall.Do they give a reference?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 17, 2020, 01:02:01 PM
Further development.

Eldest (6th form) has just come home, with a continuous dry cough. Several teachers now self isolating, and school have sent a number of children home with symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 17, 2020, 01:12:00 PM
Further development.

Eldest (6th form) has just come home, with a continuous dry cough. Several teachers now self isolating, and school have sent a number of children home with symptoms.

Been on the phone to the school. They say it's fine to send other children in the household in if they are not exhibiting symptoms, and eldest can go back tomorrow if the cough has subsided.

How does that fit in with the Government's advice?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 17, 2020, 01:20:59 PM
How does that fit in with the Government's advice?
It doesn't. If the cough lasts for more than half a day then you and your entire family have to self-quarantine for 14 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 17, 2020, 02:00:59 PM
It seems that children particularly under the age of fifteen do not have the protein in their lungs that COVID-19 attaches to, so they are generally more protected even if they spread it amongst themselves. They can/will get a more mild flu like illness but unlikely therefore to get the secondary viral pneumonia . They are however still vectors for infection and will be shedding and spreading the virus. So they can bring it into households, to the immuno-supressed and the elderly. Therefore their contact with children should be minimised and the best place for the children is at school rather than being looked after by the elderly at home or wandering the streets. Hence the potential legislation to keep schools open.

So, what exactly do we do then? The kids can't stay at school 24 hours a day.

Look, I've nothing against schools remaining open per se, but forcing children to attend when they could be at home is wrong, especially when a person with a respiratory illness lives in the same household.

My kids are 16 and 18, they don't need to be looked after by grandparents.

Excellent point. That's why they should shut all tertiary education (FE Colleges, 6th Form Colleges etc) now. As you say they don't need looking after by grandparents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 17, 2020, 02:31:58 PM
Excellent point. That's why they should shut all tertiary education (FE Colleges, 6th Form Colleges etc) now. As you say they don't need looking after by grandparents.

I would also include some secondary education. As I've said before, as soon as children reach the age of 12, parent carers lose their NI credits. For the purposes of NI credits, the Inland Revenue deem these children to be old enough to look after themselves, allowing the parent to return to work.

The biggest problem for me is exams. I can't see how it is fair to put children through exams when some of them will have been totally unaffected, some will have had enforced time off from school, and some of the most unfortunate may even suffer the loss of a family member.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: guest8810 on March 17, 2020, 03:35:23 PM
I went online to arrange a Tesco home delivery. First available slot - next month! I cannot wait 15 days to have an order delivered. Guess who is going shopping this week?

Did a click and collect today Jocko - less contact. Half our items had been substituted but looking forward to prawn and sprout curry later.

My brother went to his Tesco at 07.30 the other day - hardly anybody around so that's worth thinking about as well.

Sounds delicious
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 17, 2020, 03:38:45 PM
Yep - substitution roulette - great fun!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 17, 2020, 03:56:28 PM
16 year old has been told to bring all his work and school folders home "in case the school has to close". They have also been organising online access to school resources and teachers.

Sounds ominous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 17, 2020, 04:03:00 PM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/14/coronavirus-plan-emergency-powers-detain-virus-victims-keep/


None of this explains to me why children should be forced to attend school when they are either old enough to look after themselves, or have suitable childcare at home.

Schools likely soon be shut due to staff shortages.

" 5m ago 15:50
Richard Adams

"Schools across England are announcing full or partial closures because of staff shortages, suggesting that widespread closures and government intervention isn’t far off. The UK and Belarus are alone in Europe in requiring all schools to remain open.

Among those closing is City of London Girls School, which announced it would close from Wednesday, “in the face of unsustainable pupil and staff absence from the site over the past couple of days”. Pupils will be given remote learning in all subjects, while those whose parents are “key frontline staff” will be offered supervision at the independent school.

Meanwhile, Maiden Erlegh school in Berkshire announced that most pupils will only be able to attend every second day, because of staff shortages. “We just cannot operate the school safely with the numbers of staff now absent,” the school’s head has told parents."


Meanwhile Williamson has recommended that schools remain open but that Ofsted inspections are cancelled.


https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/mar/17/schools-across-england-struggle-as-coronavirus-hits-attendance
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 17, 2020, 05:13:30 PM
Did a click and collect today Jocko - less contact. Half our items had been substituted but looking forward to prawn and sprout curry later.

Sprouts and curry sounds like a lethal combination ..... especially for others in close proximity ....

It may well guarantee an 'exclusion zone'....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on March 17, 2020, 05:30:18 PM
It seems that children particularly under the age of fifteen do not have the protein in their lungs that COVID-19 attaches to, so they are generally more protected even if they spread it amongst themselves. They can/will get a more mild flu like illness but unlikely therefore to get the secondary viral pneumonia . They are however still vectors for infection and will be shedding and spreading the virus. So they can bring it into households, to the immuno-supressed and the elderly. Therefore their contact with children should be minimised and the best place for the children is at school rather than being looked after by the elderly at home or wandering the streets. Hence the potential legislation to keep schools open.

So, what exactly do we do then? The kids can't stay at school 24 hours a day.

Look, I've nothing against schools remaining open per se, but forcing children to attend when they could be at home is wrong, especially when a person with a respiratory illness lives in the same household.

My kids are 16 and 18, they don't need to be looked after by grandparents.

Excellent point. That's why they should shut all tertiary education (FE Colleges, 6th Form Colleges etc) now. As you say they don't need looking after by grandparents.

That's a bit like closing all work places then?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 19, 2020, 03:23:01 PM
[quote from deleted post removed by Richard A]

Think I'll risk censorship to post about this heartless barsteward.

Coronavirus: Iain Duncan Smith says don’t bring in universal basic income during pandemic as it would be ‘disincentive to work’

 Sir Iain, said his think-tank the Centre for Social Justice had "ran the numbers" and found that the cost would amount to an "astronomic amount of money" - with a basic payment costing the Treasury around £260 billion a year.

He suggested that the delayed Universal Credit scheme, his main legacy at the DWP, would be a better alternative and "was designed with just such critical moments in mind".

"One proposal being pushed around at the moment is the redundant idea of a Universal Basic Income," Sir Iain wrote in an article for the Telegraph newspaper.

"Let me say now, it’s unaffordable, impractical, produces massive disincentives for people to work and most importantly won’t make any difference to poverty in this country.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-uk-update-universal-basic-income-iain-duncan-smith-a9411251.html?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=Feed
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 19, 2020, 03:57:04 PM
I looked at UBI as an accountant.

He is - in my opinion - correct..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 19, 2020, 08:35:26 PM
Back I see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: RichardA on March 19, 2020, 08:38:03 PM
Topic now back and running after a few dodgy posts got reported.

Due to Coronavirus restrictions at work I have no staff wi-fi, and I try to avoid using my data allowance on my phone so I can't moderate posts as quickly as I'd like - please remember guys to be a little more respectful to one another. On the other hand these restrictions allow me to park in the main barrier-operated car park at work, so less chance of someone pinching my cat. Every cloud....;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 19, 2020, 11:13:25 PM
Excellent point. That's why they should shut all tertiary education (FE Colleges, 6th Form Colleges etc) now. As you say they don't need looking after by grandparents.

That's a bit like closing all work places then?

I don't think you can really compare school/college attendance with working in, say, a food factory or distribution centre.


16 year old has been told to bring all his work and school folders home "in case the school has to close". They have also been organising online access to school resources and teachers.

Sounds ominous.

All schools in the academy group were closed later that evening, Tuesday, with immediate effect.

Although officially, the closure is currently until 20th April, they do not expect to reopen before September.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 20, 2020, 08:14:04 AM
Bosses at Britania's Aviemore Coylumbridge Hotel let workers know their services were 'no longer required' with immediate effect with one staff member now sleeping in a tent after being booted out his live-in accommodation.
One Spanish worker doesn't know if he will be allowed back into Spain at the moment.
Time to start boycotting Britannia Hotels.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John A on March 20, 2020, 09:38:12 AM
Bosses at Britania's Aviemore Coylumbridge Hotel let workers know their services were 'no longer required' with immediate effect with one staff member now sleeping in a tent after being booted out his live-in accommodation.
One Spanish worker doesn't know if he will be allowed back into Spain at the moment.
Time to start boycotting Britannia Hotels.

Saw that in the news and was hoping it was "fake news", doesn't look like it is  :(

Some governments / companies / groups / individuals will come out of this having been seen to have done the right thing, hopefully the others will have plenty of spare time to mull over their errors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 20, 2020, 11:41:35 AM
Bosses at Britania's Aviemore Coylumbridge Hotel let workers know their services were 'no longer required' with immediate effect with one staff member now sleeping in a tent after being booted out his live-in accommodation.
One Spanish worker doesn't know if he will be allowed back into Spain at the moment.
Time to start boycotting Britannia Hotels.

I fear there will be much more of this, I'm afraid. There are a number of companies laying people off with no pay.

There are also a number of companies currently dismissing employees with less than 2 years service, there is little protection in law for workers until then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 20, 2020, 11:49:01 AM
Losing your job is bad enough, but losing your accommodation in the same breath is not on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 20, 2020, 12:06:15 PM
Bosses at Britania's Aviemore Coylumbridge Hotel let workers know their services were 'no longer required' with immediate effect with one staff member now sleeping in a tent after being booted out his live-in accommodation.
One Spanish worker doesn't know if he will be allowed back into Spain at the moment.
Time to start boycotting Britannia Hotels.
Yes I noticed that last night.
https://twitter.com/ScaryHighlander/status/1240700402783244288/photo/1

Some bl**dy letter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: guest8810 on March 20, 2020, 01:23:56 PM
Bosses at Britania's Aviemore Coylumbridge Hotel let workers know their services were 'no longer required' with immediate effect with one staff member now sleeping in a tent after being booted out his live-in accommodation.
One Spanish worker doesn't know if he will be allowed back into Spain at the moment.
Time to start boycotting Britannia Hotels.
Yes I noticed that last night.
https://twitter.com/ScaryHighlander/status/1240700402783244288/photo/1

Some bl**dy letter.

What a dreadful way to tell someone they are no longer required, what a bunch of t**** no respect at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 20, 2020, 01:30:53 PM
My wife was in the chemotherapy department for her Immunotherapy Infusion (every three weeks until November) and they told her that they are moving to the Queen Margaret Hospital in Dunfermline over the weekend. Seemingly the Victoria Hospital in Kirkcaldy is getting cleared out and space is being freed up for the influx of Covid 19 sufferers they are expecting over the next few weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 20, 2020, 02:43:48 PM
Mum had a phonecall today to tell her that she's been discharged from the physiotherapy.

Perfectly understandable I guess, it'll be all hands to the pumps.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 20, 2020, 03:00:20 PM
My wife was in the chemotherapy department for her Immunotherapy Infusion (every three weeks until November) and they told her that they are moving to the Queen Margaret Hospital in Dunfermline over the weekend. Seemingly the Victoria Hospital in Kirkcaldy is getting cleared out and space is being freed up for the influx of Covid 19 sufferers they are expecting over the next few weeks.

91 cases to date in Glasgow...Likely to double next week..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 20, 2020, 04:24:49 PM
We have 12 cases here in Fife.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 20, 2020, 10:57:30 PM
How are the homeless meant to self isolate?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/coronavirus-case-homeless-shelter-guests-street-glasgow-city-mission

And refugees?
https://www.middleeasteye.net/coronavirus-iran-hospitals-refusing-treat-afghans
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 21, 2020, 05:09:02 AM
"The UK's coronavirus outbreak could be worse than Italy's and hospitals may be "completely swamped", an A&E consultant has told Sky News."

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-whats-coming-is-extremely-big-uk-consultant-says-outbreak-could-be-worse-than-in-italy-11960994

The forecast  posted  a week or so on this thread is essentially giving answers within 15% of the actual results after two weeks.

On that basis expect the exponential rise - and inadequate social distancing -  to lead to roughly 25,000 cases end next week and 150,000 the following week.

If correct  (and the above article suggests it is in the right ballpark) , the NHS will not cope . Period.


London is going to be very,very,very  very badly hit.. The virus is out of control .##

The projected daily death toll based on the 150,000 cases in a fortnight's time  will be around 1,000 per day. (Italy's yesterday was 627.)


We are enforcing distancing and I have a couple of medical masks ( for chemical treatments used in beekeeping)  which I will use for shopping. If infected, I am unlikely to be treated at 72 years old.
 
##  Worst London Boroughs. Diagnosed cases.

Westminster
11th March 6
20th March 99
% increase per day..183%

Kensington & Chelsea.
11th March 15
20th March 66
% increase per day..49%

Southwark
11th March 9
20th March 110
% increase per day..136%

note the % gains shown by day are NOT compound but % changes from the original numbers..


Remember the figures quoted  for cases above are confirmed cases. For every confirmed case, it is estimated that there are between 10 and 30 undiagnosed (milder?) cases. Say 20.
So 150,000 above could be 3 million.
The UK population is 66 million which equates to 3.3 million diagnosed cases. The model suggests we will reach that by second week in April..(surely not?.. it may level out a bit)
In reality if we get anywhere near those levels, the testing systems will be unable to cope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 21, 2020, 10:35:19 AM
Where are we going to put them all?
How do we compare with Spain and Italy?
Number of hospital beds per 1000 population.

The UK has 2.5 beds per 1000 CF Germany 8, France 6, Italy 3, Spain 3
These figures are from 2017. (In 2003 UK had 4.2 beds per 1000)

https://data.oecd.org/healtheqt/hospital-beds.htm

These figures refer to ordinary hospital beds
It's even worse for Critical care beds (CCB)

"In early March, the UK government supported a strategy to develop natural herd immunity, drawing sharp criticism from medical personnel and researchers.[6] Various forecasts by Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, made public on March 16th, suggested that the peak number of cases in the UK would require between 100 to 225 CCBs / 100,000 inhabitants,[7] if proper mitigation or no mitigation strategies are put into force, respectively. These requirements would both exceed the UK's current capacities of 6.6[3]–14[7] CCB / 100,000 inhabitants. In the best case scenario, the peak caseload would require 7.5 times the current number of available ICU beds.[8] Around March 16th, the UK government changed trajectory toward a more standard mitigation/suppression strategy.[6]

In France, around March 15th, the Grand Est region was the first to express the scarcity of CCB limiting its handling of the crisis.[9] Assistance-publique H�aux de Paris (AP-HP), which manages most hospitals in the French capital area (~10 million inhabitants), reported the need for 3,000–4,000 ICUs.[10] Current capacity is reported to be between 1500[10] and 350[11], depending on the source. "
( CCB -- Critical Care Bed)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 21, 2020, 11:06:16 AM
My wife's hospital is clearing everything out. The theatres will be used for CCB as will the chemotherapy/hematology department. The hospital has a lot of unused capacity since the building of the third phase. All it needs is the staff to man it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 21, 2020, 11:42:30 AM
I read this am (the DT>) that priority in case of restricted beds (think next week).. should be given to teh under 60s as the over 60s are likely to have too many ailments and take tyoo long to cure (if lucky)

I am 72  :o :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 21, 2020, 01:03:45 PM
Only about a week behind the Guardian then

Just read a column from a palliative care doctor - Rachel Clarke. She expresses concern that many older relatives might be a bit cavalier about the virus especially given that they are overwhelmingly the most vulnerable group. Ideally, she says, all over 70s should practice self isolation.
A good article.
What I found most frightening was the bit about prioritising resources. While the initial priority is to protect the elderly, in the event of pressure on overstretched resources it is likely that priority will be given to the younger and fitter poulation.

In effect, doctors will be forced to play God.

" If our mortality rates mirror China’s, one in seven of octogenarians who contract coronavirus will die from it. These are odds too serious to ignore: not least when an overwhelmed NHS may end up being forced, as is happening in Italy right now, to restrict the use of ventilators to the under-65s."

Here is another article on this dilemma

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-outbreak-older-people-doctors-treatment-ethics

See the last link
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 21, 2020, 01:58:14 PM
Went out this morning and for some reason this came into my mind......


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 21, 2020, 02:09:57 PM
Doctors and hospital ethics panels have to play god 24/7/365 ( 366 in a leap year ) so nothing new there.  They hourly make life and death decisions about where the treatments would be most effectively used with the best hope of success at reasonable cost within available resources. It is just not feasible to have hospitals with massive extra unused capacity in mothballs and a multitude of extra staff on standby to meet any expected emergency situation.  Bit like England having a massive fleet of snowploughs that will stand unused for 10 or 20 years before being needed for a few weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 21, 2020, 02:25:14 PM
"A multitude of extra staff extra staff on standby" is not required.
A properly funded system with sufficient staff and resources to cope with day to day running with a bit of flexibility to cope in an emergency  is.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-42572110
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/21/nhs-funding-guardian-kings-fund

And an up to date article from a junior doctor about present conditions
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/21/nhs-junior-doctor-stay-at-home-coronavirus

The second chart comes out as unlabelled it shows the spending on health services as a percentage of GDP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: VicW on March 21, 2020, 02:43:34 PM
The NHS will have an increased work load about next Christmas time when the birthrate suddenly increases. Social Distancing will not work for everything.

Vic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinS on March 21, 2020, 04:05:49 PM
The NHS will have an increased work load about next Christmas time when the birthrate suddenly increases. Social Distancing will not work for everything.
Of course the divorce rate may also go up!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 21, 2020, 04:19:46 PM
The NHS will have an increased work load about next Christmas time when the birthrate suddenly increases. Social Distancing will not work for everything.
Of course the divorce rate may also go up!
Both entirely possible. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 21, 2020, 04:46:31 PM
"A multitude of extra staff extra staff on standby" is not required.
A properly funded system with sufficient staff and resources to cope with day to day running with a bit of flexibility to cope in an emergency  is.


Needs more than 'a bit of flexibility' to cope with an influx of 10's of thousands of very sick patients in a short period. 

Some experts say we could spend 100% of GDP on NHS and due to the fact that the number of patients seems to expand faster than the system does it would still need more money.  IMHO GP's no longer do the job they are ( very well ) paid for,  they are more like accountants now looking after budgets,  and a two week average wait for an appointment has got to be a joke...... The NHS has collected a lot of dead wood over the years, with most senior doctors and consultants working for both private medical providers and NHS at the same time,  my wife spent years in NHS and the Nuffield hospitals were known as 'the Golden Nugget' as in, Dr XX is at the Golden Nugget in Birmingham today if anyone wants him / her....   And don't mention how NHS gets ripped off by suppliers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 21, 2020, 05:04:16 PM
I didn't say that a bit of flexibility would cope with an emergency on this scale but the NHS is underfunded and overstretched -barely capable of coping with an average winter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: RayS on March 21, 2020, 05:08:40 PM
This might make me a bit unpopular, but here goes.
Using data from yesterday (20/3/20) 0.006% of the UK population have coronavirus & 0.0002% have sadly died from it. On an average during 2018 1482 people died in the UK.

Ray


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 21, 2020, 05:19:00 PM
This might make me a bit unpopular, but here goes.
Using data from yesterday (20/3/20) 0.006% of the UK population have coronavirus & 0.0002% have sadly died from it. On an average during 2018 1482 people died in the UK.

Ray
But the coronavirus deaths will be in addition to the deaths from other causes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on March 21, 2020, 05:44:47 PM
But the coronavirus deaths will be in addition to the deaths from other causes.
Not necessarily, if considered over a longer timescale, but there will be a spike in the mortality rate. See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654) . We've all got to die sometime!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 21, 2020, 06:42:29 PM
This might make me a bit unpopular, but here goes.
Using data from yesterday (20/3/20) 0.006% of the UK population have coronavirus & 0.0002% have sadly died from it. On an average during 2018 1482 people died in the UK.

Ray

I do not wish to be  offensive nor rude nor supercilious nor arrogant nor scathing... :D
BUT.
"Coronavirus: Latest patient was first to be infected in UK" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51683428

was dated 29 th February 2020..  It is now the 21st March..., Some 22 days later.

There are 365 days in one year.. so 6% of the total days in the year..

Applying deaths in that period as a % of the total population and suggesting - albeit indirectly - that the numbers  as a % of the population are so small as to be irrelevant - is an illogical basis for drawing any conclusions..on a statistical basis.  (My Mr Spock hat firmly on :D  )


If they were deaths over say half a year - or a full year -  then they would be relevant.  But it is less than  a month. since deaths in the UK started in any earnest.And the death toll is rising exponentially and will likely last all of 2021 and may extend into 2022.  So the  VAST majority of deaths are yet to come..

So it's rather like saying the deaths in WW2 in France  from 1939 to 1940 were so small that the  total death toll from the war  was insignificant ...whilst any historian will tell you the majority of deaths happened in the following four years. (75 million people died in WW2.)

ANY statistics from the first  21 days in an event likely to last hundreds of days are of academic interest only.





Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 21, 2020, 07:08:18 PM
China is over the hump with only new cases coming from other countries. They had 81304 positive cases with 3259 deaths. A death rate of 4%.
Iran has 20619 cases and 1556 deaths. 7.5%.
Currently, the UK has a death rate of 4% for confirmed cases.
I don't doubt that many people will die who would not have died without Covid 19, but many of the elderly and infirm would have died from the underlying causes they had before the virus.
Regarding the funding of the NHS. I worked in the NHS until I retired in 2013. I saw it before and after the 2008 crash. Before 2008 it was profligate with funds, then after the screws were tightened there was a massive reduction in wastage. I have no doubt if spending had not been curtailed the profligacy would have continued.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 21, 2020, 08:05:28 PM
China is over the hump with only new cases coming from other countries. They had 81304 positive cases with 3259 deaths. A death rate of 4%.
Iran has 20619 cases and 1556 deaths. 7.5%.
Currently, the UK has a death rate of 4% for confirmed cases.
The sh1t has yet to hit the fan here.


I don't doubt that many people will die who would not have died without Covid 19, but many of the elderly and infirm would have died from the underlying causes they had before the virus.
And many would have survived had they not contracted the virus.

Regarding the funding of the NHS. I worked in the NHS until I retired in 2013. I saw it before and after the 2008 crash. Before 2008 it was profligate with funds, then after the screws were tightened there was a massive reduction in wastage. I have no doubt if spending had not been curtailed the profligacy would have continued.
I suppose that's one way of looking at it.
Here was me thinking it was privatisation and the appointment of trust managers on fat cat salaries who were more concerned with saving money than improving front line services.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JazzMusic on March 21, 2020, 08:08:49 PM
The UK is about three weeks behind Italy. I've seen some shocking videos of Italy.
'Only' 4'176 cases so far but already 179 deaths result in a horrible rate of 4.3 % at this early stage? The death rate usually raises at a much higher number of cases. God bless the UK.
Every day about +30% more cases. After three weeks it's 250x which will be a 1 million. The collapse of the NHS will be much earlier with people dying due to other emergency cases (heart attack, stroke, chronical illness).

The scenario is very serious. No need to panic, just stay safe and healthy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 21, 2020, 09:13:41 PM
The announcement this evening that the NHS has struck a deal with private hospitals to acquire thousands of extra beds, ventilators and medical staff to fight the coronavirus outbreak is a big help.
An extra 8,000 hospital beds across England, nearly 1,200 ventilators and almost 20,000 fully qualified staff will be available from next week.
My local hospital has announced it is being split into a green and a red section. The green for the usual cases and the red for Covid 19 cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 22, 2020, 12:07:48 AM
ANY statistics from the first  21 days in an event likely to last hundreds of days are of academic interest only.
And yet they keep appearing in this thread. And projections based on them. Nobody really know what is going to happen and every estimate is bollocks.

The best we can do right now is look at the countries that are ahead of us and learn from that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 22, 2020, 06:17:41 AM
Err The curve the infection follows is mathematical..

see.  https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/


Look  at Italy - clickon it and compare to China..
The US one is scary.
I forecast hundreds of thousands of deaths - if not millions.

see. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 22, 2020, 07:47:07 AM
ANY statistics from the first  21 days in an event likely to last hundreds of days are of academic interest only.
And yet they keep appearing in this thread. And projections based on them. Nobody really know what is going to happen and every estimate is bollocks.

The best we can do right now is look at the countries that are ahead of us and learn from that.

I have posted this before but it's well worth a read if you missed it, or a re-read if you have
read it.
It ws last updated on the 19th March.

Last edit added re-read

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 22, 2020, 08:04:46 AM
The figure the government hopes to achieve is around 26,000 deaths in the UK. That would be a "good" outcome. I could not believe it when Professor Chris Whitty came out with that number.
Mind you, Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 22, 2020, 09:13:18 AM
The figure the government hopes to achieve is around 26,000 deaths in the UK. That would be a "good" outcome. I could not believe it when Professor Chris Whitty came out with that number.
He's just trying not to frighten you.

Mind you, Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19.
Well you can add the corona virus figures to those for this year.

What frightens me is that there are still people not taking this seriously. You see pictures on the news of London and Newcastle and there are still people walking about as normal. They're not going to believe it's happening till people are dying in the streets.
It's time (or rather it was time about a fortnight ago) that Boris stops all this softly softly advisory nonsense and imposes a strict lockdown on the whole country like they did in South East Asia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 22, 2020, 10:20:00 AM
If my forecasts are in any way accurate - and so far they have understated the cases. I would forecast deaths.
 as follows:
Deaths to date 233
Infections to date: 5,000
Rate 4.6%

Forecast infections 2 weeks time: 150,000
Forecast deaths at 4.6% 6,900
(these are virtually certain)

After that social distancing may start to work  so I assume the infection curves flatten and instead of multipling the last week by 6 to get the number of infections, I use 4 for the next week 3 for the week after and then 2

so we get :
4 April      150,000
11 April    600,000
18 April  1,800,000
25 April  3,600,000

The death rate will rise as the sick will not be treated but using 3.6 M  at 4.6% gives 165,560 deaths. (aND 250,000 is easily achievable  as it requires roughly 6.4M infections. Not far off early May)

To get that improvement means STRICT enforcement of social distancing in LONDON where half the cases are...

This is NOT a forecast saying it will happen  but showing we are starting from a very high base and need effective action to act very quickly.

You may disbelieve the 150,000 cases 4th April..they may be lower, in which case the deaths wil be a lot lower.

These are purely mathematical based on history which shows the calculations are too low..

Is the political will there to stop it happening? Measures must be put in place In London NOW - or so the numbers say..

Every day delaying means a large increase in deaths..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 22, 2020, 10:49:41 AM
I think the other issue is the overwhelming of A & E departments and ICUs. In other words people with other issues, heart attacks, strokes, road traffic and other accidents may not get the immediate treatment they need. There will be collateral damage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 22, 2020, 10:53:22 AM
What frightens me is that there are still people not taking this seriously. You see pictures on the news of London and Newcastle and there are still people walking about as normal.
My daughter works in a huge Next outlet. Yesterday the store was choked, like a sales day. She was asking the customers what brought them out and the bulk were just bored and thought they would go to the shops to get out.
"@r$e holes". Her words, not mine. Perhaps Darwin's theory will cull some of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 22, 2020, 11:05:15 AM

"@r$e holes". Her words, not mine. Perhaps Darwin's theory will cull some of them.
Trouble is these aerosols will spread the disease and probably Next customers are younger and less likely to be seriously affected themselves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on March 22, 2020, 11:22:15 AM
If my forecasts are in any way accurate - and so far they have understated the cases. I would forecast deaths.
 as follows:
Deaths to date 233
Infections to date: 5,000
Rate 4.6%

Forecast infections 2 weeks time: 150,000
Forecast deaths at 4.6% 6,900
(these are virtually certain)
The problem with your numbers is that there's no good grasp of the true number of infections. The death rate looks high as it's a percentage of the tested and confirmed cases. Nonetheless, the death rate is worrying for the very old and those with certain underlying health conditions. For those people any delay is welcome as the NHS may become better prepared. However, at the same time, the sooner that those at lower risk of problems have their encounter with the virus and develop immunity the sooner the spreading will stop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 22, 2020, 11:29:14 AM

Is the political will there to stop it happening? Measures must be put in place In London NOW - or so the numbers say..

Every day delaying means a large increase in deaths..

I would rather see the whole country locked down.
The Italians made the mistake of trying to shut down only Northern Italy at first. The virus is bound to escape.
I saw a good computer model of this but can't put my finger on it.
Not what I was looking for but gives a good analysis of measures being taken.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/new-model-examines-impact-of-different-methods-of-coronavirus-control/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 22, 2020, 11:31:49 AM
According to Dr Michael Ryan, Executive Director, WHO Health Emergencies Programme, on today's Andrew Marr show, 12% of deaths worldwide, are under 50.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 22, 2020, 12:05:27 PM
According to Dr Michael Ryan, Executive Director, WHO Health Emergencies Programme, on today's Andrew Marr show, 12% of deaths worldwide, are under 50.
88% over 50 then

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

There are some other interesting articles linked to this one.
Last edit. Reccommendation to read other articles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: hemming on March 22, 2020, 12:52:40 PM
On a more basic level, have any of the older members had the promised email from Sainsbury's yet regarding deliveries for over 75's?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 22, 2020, 01:02:23 PM
the sooner that those at lower risk of problems have their encounter with the virus and develop immunity the sooner the spreading will stop.

People who have 'recovered' from a virus can still be carriers unfortunately....

https://www.health24.com/Medical/Infectious-diseases/Coronavirus/can-you-spread-coronavirus-even-after-you-have-recovered-20200304

This is interesting, treatment with existing drugs seem promising...

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Hydroxychloroquine_final_DOI_IJAA.pdf
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on March 22, 2020, 01:42:37 PM
According to Dr Michael Ryan, Executive Director, WHO Health Emergencies Programme, on today's Andrew Marr show, 12% of deaths worldwide, are under 50.
88% over 50 then

88% of all deaths over 50 seems to be the consensus .The morality rate seems grow to be 8.5% over 75.

This link below, posted twice before by JimSh,  is  indeed a very worthwhile read.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

It does not take account of economic cost but is a a very good explanation of the medical issues.

The government forecasts are based on:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-covid-19-scientific-evidence-supporting-the-uk-government-response

Click on the link:

https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

There is a lot to read!

This includes:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566v1.full.pdf+html

Click on [Preview pdf] on the right.

This shows, in the tables towards the end, how the government are working towards a figure of 20,000 deaths. (This appears to be the minimum. The "no action" figure is shown to be 250,000 deaths).

For a big picture perspective as of now on the UK position in the world league, this is very informative:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 22, 2020, 03:52:39 PM

I saw a good computer model of this but can't put my finger on it.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?fbclid=IwAR1r02wIsrH8eY-KK2DPWJ3PCfX298Eo6EOBV795HeRJn4ODN54yUeOahvc

This is very similar to the model I saw before. I  think the one I saw before was more specific to Italy but if you scroll down halfway you'll see the effect of a partial lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 22, 2020, 04:11:29 PM
For the most accurate plotting of Covid 19 see Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. Updates about every half hour. It is the site the BBC gets its figures from.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 22, 2020, 04:22:09 PM
For the most accurate plotting of Covid 19 see Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. Updates about every half hour. It is the site the BBC gets its figures from.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
Thanks. That's an impressive scary site.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 22, 2020, 04:59:23 PM
On a more basic level, have any of the older members had the promised email from Sainsbury's yet regarding deliveries for over 75's?

It seems to be a bit of a joke. They have no slots in our area and there doesn't appear to be any mechanism for releasing slots to the vulnerable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JazzMusic on March 22, 2020, 05:27:32 PM
The other bad news are that 70-75% are male.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 22, 2020, 05:35:04 PM
On a more basic level, have any of the older members had the promised email from Sainsbury's yet regarding deliveries for over 75's?

It seems to be a bit of a joke. They have no slots in our area and there doesn't appear to be any mechanism for releasing slots to the vulnerable.
Starts tomorrow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 22, 2020, 06:30:56 PM
The free food deliveries should all be contracted to the supermarkets, and additional logistics provided to them, in the form of armed forces and whatever other local authority vehicles can be repurposed. The supermarkets are pretty good at it under normal circumstances, the biggest problem is excessive demand and lack of vehicles/staff to cope.

To be honest, I think NHS workers, social care workers and OAP delivery orders should be prioritised now, and demand to other customers managed, although the chaos seems to be abating a little round here. Perhaps the restrictions are kicking in.

Here's a little anecdote from the local Asda, apparantly one woman who was stopped at the till with goods in excess of the limits imposed promptly spat on the goods she couldn't have. I'm not sure what transpired, but I would have thought that damaging goods you were not entitled to buy should fall into the realms of criminal damage, as well as a public order offence for spitting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 22, 2020, 09:21:23 PM


Here's a little anecdote from the local Asda, apparantly one woman who was stopped at the till with goods in excess of the limits imposed promptly spat on the goods she couldn't have. I'm not sure what transpired, but I would have thought that damaging goods you were not entitled to buy should fall into the realms of criminal damage, as well as a public order offence for spitting.

Attempted murder? Probably not but you want these people to be punished and punished severely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 23, 2020, 10:33:33 AM
The government has published the list of vulnerable groups that fall into the "Shielding" category (those who if they live in England will get one of the 1.5 million letters).
My wife falls into the people having immunotherapy or other continuing antibody treatments for cancer category, which is frightening me somewhat.
She should not go out at all, and I am advised not to go out either. We should also keep 2 metres apart while in the house (I said I'd sleep in the spare room).
I still have to shop. Once the supermarkets get back to some semblance of normality I will click and collect, but at the moment you really need to see what's available and select what we can use.
There is also her mother to worry about. She knows nothing of the cancer and if I go and visit her on my own she will think her daughter cannot be bothered. I explained a bit about the virus to her, but with her dementia, it could all have gone to exhaust by now
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 23, 2020, 11:27:35 AM
waer gloves when you shop - especially with supermarket trolleys.
Discard gloves before you enter car so you do not infect door/steering wheel etc.
Sanitise hands before entering car.

Wear a facemask - of any type - even a crude dust filter from DIY stores.
Cover nose and face and mask with a scarf.
Discard before entering house into a plastic bag for washing or disposal..

If using old shopping bags, clean with Flash with Bleach spray before use.. then rinse in sink and hang out to dry for 24 hours before use.

Wash hands when entering house, before handling food and after all handling of cans   (virus lives up to 72hours on hard surfaces.


Apologies if teaching my grandmother to suck eggs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kenneve on March 23, 2020, 11:33:32 AM
Yes Jocko, these are very worrying times.

Have just checked on the Sainsbury's website and find there are no Delivery or Click & Collect slots available, for at least the next 3 weeks. Last week I used the so called 'Over 70's' hour at Sainsbury's and I have to say it was much worse than normal, crowds everywhere, 2 mtr rule impossible, So have just spoken the my Carers company and they are happy for my Carer to do the the run for me.

My wife's Residential Care home is on lockdown, so I am unable to visit her, for the foreseeable future. She has Alzheimer's and I'm very concerned that when I do eventually get to see her, she won't recognise me!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 23, 2020, 11:43:05 AM
It's going to be a bit of a rough ride for some, stay safe and get any help you can.

Supermarkets are settling down a bit round here Jocko, not so many gaps in the shelves and most staples seem to be available. Tuesday & Wednesday were generally the least busy days before all this kicked off, so that's my target for shopping.

No Asda delivery slots available here at all, for the next 4 weeks. I was hoping to get a delivery for my 85/80 yo parents, but no such luck.

Other half suffers from asthma and is on an ace inhibitor for hypertension, so could be more susceptible, but it's all controlled so not such a daunting situation as you two are in. We are avoiding going out wherever possible. Work has just about gone kaput, just ticking over, so little income either.

At least we'll all be able to have a good falling out on here, so not everything will change. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 23, 2020, 12:26:11 PM
Seem to be talking up the chances of a full lockdown on BBC News.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 23, 2020, 12:42:10 PM
Seem to be talking up the chances of a full lockdown on BBC News.
I think it's what's needed. The signals coming from the government are too ambiguous and open to interpretation.
I think boredom and social unrest are going to be a problem.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 23, 2020, 01:26:58 PM
No supermarket deliveries or click and collect here for at least three weeks. I'll just have to shop, nothing else for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 23, 2020, 01:46:46 PM
Seem to be talking up the chances of a full lockdown on BBC News.
Inevitable. Less than 2 weeks away if we follow Italy. But we need it now. I reckon the only reason we don't have it yet is they are figuring out the logistics and want it to not have to last as long as it might.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: hemming on March 23, 2020, 02:33:14 PM
Jocko - sorry for your plight. Do you have a Sainsburys within reasonable distance?
We registered as over 70's (with no known underlying health issues worth mentioning) and yesterday were invited to pick a slot and send a shopping list. The provisions (with a handful of substitutions) arrived , on the dot, this morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 23, 2020, 02:37:47 PM
Seem to be talking up the chances of a full lockdown on BBC News.
Inevitable. Less than 2 weeks away if we follow Italy. But we need it now. I reckon the only reason we don't have it yet is they are figuring out the logistics and want it to not have to last as long as it might.


They're easing folk into it. The BBC is the Government's mouthpiece and part of the softening up process.

I agree that we need it now. Too many folk are not being sensible, and the Government advice has too many mixed messages. People are hearing the bits they want to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 23, 2020, 02:40:36 PM
No supermarket deliveries or click and collect here for at least three weeks. I'll just have to shop, nothing else for it.

As hemming says, try the other supermarkets. Failing that, keep your wits about you.

Also, Age UK and other charities are offering help with shopping, although they might be spread a bit thin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 23, 2020, 02:56:21 PM
No supermarket deliveries or click and collect here for at least three weeks. I'll just have to shop, nothing else for it.
Daughter? Son in law? Neighbours?

Tried Sainsburys just now. They've changed their website and are prioritising elderly and disabled as Hemming said
I was not registered with them as elderly and was given a number to ring (0800 328 1700) Couldn't get through and ring back didn't work.

Update Got through but only a long recorded message with options at the end none of which seemed relevant.
Presumably it will get better when things calm down. Sorry Jocko.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 23, 2020, 03:05:22 PM
https://www.dw.com/en/will-warmer-weather-stop-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus/a-52570290

Experts hoping that warmer weather will help control spread of virus,  just like flu usually happens in winter and dies out in summer. Corona type virus susceptible to heat which can disable it, where cooler weather allows it to last longer outside a host. 

Ironic if global warming saves us from viruses.......
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 23, 2020, 03:29:21 PM
It's late summer in Australia..Daytime temperatures are 21C Sydney.

There are 1,717 cases and 7 deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 23, 2020, 03:30:46 PM
In the interests of minimizing "social contact" I tried to set up an on line delivery to get mine and my OH's prescriptions delivered.

Nightmare - surgery not answering the phone and have a blanket policy of now sending prescriptions to nearest pharmacy. Firm promised a hassle free process. Absolute cobblers.

What an absolute joke and don't get me started on supermarkets. You've got as much chance of getting your food delivered round our way from the middle of April onwards as finding manure from a rocking horse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 23, 2020, 03:54:06 PM
It's late summer in Australia..Daytime temperatures are 21C Sydney.

There are 1,717 cases and 7 deaths.

If you look at world infection map there seem to be many more cases in northern hemisphere than south - in fact most of the worlds landmass is in northern hemisphere.

Also pretty much 95% of Australians live in urban areas,  it is the most urban country in the world despite its size and population centres tend to be a bit crowded,  mainly in south east of country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on March 23, 2020, 04:52:02 PM
https://www.dw.com/en/will-warmer-weather-stop-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus/a-52570290

Experts hoping that warmer weather will help control spread of virus,  just like flu usually happens in winter and dies out in summer. Corona type virus susceptible to heat which can disable it, where cooler weather allows it to last longer outside a host. 
Just remember to not use any air conditioning and open the windows so the insides of buildings get nicely warmed up. I suspect that the virus has spread in some hot countries because the insides of buildings are kept cool (too cold in my experience) and this creates favourable conditions for the virus.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 23, 2020, 07:31:05 PM
Scary biscuit stuff on Ch 4 news just now regarding the availability of testing and the lack of protective equipment for front line hospital workers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 23, 2020, 08:24:56 PM
Hospital workers account for 10% of infected cases in Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 23, 2020, 09:20:01 PM
Hospital workers account for 10% of infected cases in Italy.

Watching on Italian TV, their hospital staff look much better kitted out with PPE than ours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 23, 2020, 10:31:06 PM
Complete change of PPE required every time they deal with a new patient..

(The 1 million masks ordered this weekend will not last long at that rate..)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 24, 2020, 07:57:27 AM
It's gone very quiet on here, is everyone OK?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 24, 2020, 08:52:00 AM
Social distancing?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-london-tube-underground-nhs-lockdown-uk-boris-johnson-a9420326.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 24, 2020, 09:03:45 AM
Social distancing?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-london-tube-underground-nhs-lockdown-uk-boris-johnson-a9420326.html

I saw these pics, and more like them, this morning. It's shocking.

The problem is that Boris has told everyone to go to work if they cannot work from home. Not once did he say that key workers only should go to work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 24, 2020, 09:20:20 AM
Not once did he say that key workers only should go to work.
If you are self-employed you are going to go to your work. Either that or prepare to exist on £94/week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 24, 2020, 10:02:28 AM
If you are self-employed you are going to go to your work. Either that or prepare to exist on £94/week.

...and that's only a Universal Credit payment in lieu of statutory sick pay, which self-employed are not normally entitled to.

If your work has simply dried up, you get nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 24, 2020, 10:26:21 AM
My wife and I went for our daily walk (only about half a mile but she is determined to build up some strength after her chemo) and it was like after the zombie apocalypse here in Kirkcaldy. No people, very few cars and a double-decker bus past with only the driver on it (Great time to be a bus driver. Just go for a drive for eight hours!).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 24, 2020, 10:30:41 AM
Other half just had a text from the NHS to await further instructions regarding her health conditions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 24, 2020, 10:52:01 AM
Other half just had a text from the NHS to await further instructions regarding her health conditions.
All the best to her.

Look on the bright side she might get priority when it comes to ordering food.


Edit added last sentence
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 24, 2020, 11:40:00 AM
Went for my daily 3 mile walk at 7.30am in the local country park. Forested - not visible from anywhere...
Normally meet 15-20 people with dogs  .
Met 7 people with dogs..

The dogs were all well..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 24, 2020, 12:30:53 PM
Went for my daily 3 mile walk at 7.30am in the local country park. Forested - not visible from anywhere...
Normally meet 15-20 people with dogs  .
Met 7 people with dogs..

The dogs were all well..
Yes.  Sensible people are taking it on board.
Trouble is, it doesn't stop the scallies.
My walk takes me through the public park. All last week they were re-roofing the football changing rooms. Nearly finished by Friday. Neat Job.
Monday morning. Mountain bike hanging from scaffolding by back wheel. Stopped to talk to the slater. He used to live in same street as me and our sons went to school together. He beckoned me round the other side. Dozens of slates -maybe nearly a hundred thrown off roof and sticking out of the ground.
This morning he's got a bigger squad on the job and another squad, presumably from the council, putting up a fence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on March 24, 2020, 02:19:43 PM
A friend and ex colleague's brother has it. First person in my network. He works for the Met in London and was put on frontline duties. Took a week for him to develop symptoms. Just a headache and a hacking cough at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on March 24, 2020, 02:57:40 PM
Don't forget the annual flu kills a lot of people,  but we have kind of got used to it and it does not always make headlines.  Without the flu jab offered to vulnerable people ( although some years it is of dubious effectiveness ) the annual deaths could be much, much worse. I had both the flu and pneumonia jab this year for first time and developed shingles on my face and inside mouth - not saying it is linked as shingles caused by chickenpox ( varicella zoster ) virus,  but did the two jabs affect my immune system ? Will never know.
Ironic thing is I would have been offered shingles jab next year - would it have prevented it,  will never know.

Coronavirus seems easier to catch than normal flu as it can last a lot longer on surfaces.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-world-focuses-on-coronavirus-dont-forget-about-the-deadly-flu-2020-02-06
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 24, 2020, 03:07:02 PM
It is of no benefit to anyone, but the Covid 19 and Influenza virus targets the same vulnerable people so overall deaths will not be a cumulative total of the two viruses. Many who die from Covid 19 may well have succumbed to the Influenza virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 24, 2020, 03:12:07 PM
Been watching business in the Scottish parliament this afternoon and Scotland has told construction workers they must stay at home unless they are working on hospital construction, whereas in England, Gove has told construction workers they can continue to work provided they can work safely with social distancing. But the crowds on the Tube are being claimed on construction workers, among others!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 24, 2020, 03:18:50 PM
Been watching business in the Scottish parliament this afternoon and Scotland has told construction workers they must stay at home unless they are working on hospital construction, whereas in England, Gove has told construction workers they can continue to work provided they can work safely with social distancing. But the crowds on the Tube are being claimed on construction workers, among others!

English construction workers wear shirts and ties unlike their scruffy Scots counterparts.. :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 24, 2020, 03:25:39 PM
Went for my daily 3 mile walk at 7.30am in the local country park. Forested - not visible from anywhere...
Normally meet 15-20 people with dogs  .
Met 7 people with dogs..

The dogs were all well..
Yes.  Sensible people are taking it on board.
Trouble is, it doesn't stop the scallies.


Doesn't stop the eejits either

"A West Midlands police force has had to deal with a large group of at least 20 people having an outdoor barbecue, less than 24 hours after the Prime Minister placed the country in lockdown.

In a tweet, Foleshill Police wrote:

Unbelievably, we’ve just had to deal with 20+ people having a BBQ!! Please listen to government advice else this will get worse and will last longer!!"

and even worse

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/24/uk-police-chiefs-coronavirus-could-bring-out-worst-in-humanity
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 26, 2020, 11:02:07 PM
NHS staff now being transferred to London.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/nhs-to-move-nurses-to-london-to-help-with-coronavirus-tsunami
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 27, 2020, 12:09:41 PM
There's another big hoo haa on social media over Boris getting a test when only showing mild symptoms.

To be fair, he is the Prime Minister and is a special case.

So are all the front line NHS staff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 27, 2020, 12:23:43 PM
There's another big hoo haa on social media over Boris getting a test when only showing mild symptoms.

To be fair, he is the Prime Minister and is a special case.

So are all the front line NHS staff.
Absolutely. As prime minister he should have been tested but so should the doctors and nurses who have been put in the invidious position of not knowing if they were fit to work or if they were infecting patients.

As for the other headline. Has it just become apparent to the government that the homeless have nowhere to self isolate?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 27, 2020, 03:24:41 PM
If Timor-Leste has one case I wonder how North Korea is fairing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 27, 2020, 04:22:57 PM
If Timor-Leste has one case I wonder how North Korea is fairing?
Sorry Jocko. You've lost me.
What is the significance of East Timor and North Korea?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 27, 2020, 04:41:44 PM
What is the significance of East Timor and North Korea?
Well Timor-Leste shows one case but North Korea has not recorded any (!) according to John Hopkins University, the source used by BBC and WHO. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 27, 2020, 09:51:44 PM
Well Timor-Leste shows one case but North Korea has not recorded any (!) according to John Hopkins University, the source used by BBC and WHO.

Not many coronavirus virus deaths in Russia either, but strangely a quadrupling of pneumonia deaths.

I think they are massaging the figures here now too, by recording other causes of death, and also not counting deaths without family permission. The statistics become meaningless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on March 27, 2020, 11:32:57 PM
I think they are massaging the figures here now too, by recording other causes of death, and also not counting deaths without family permission. The statistics become meaningless.

Not so much massaging, but rather it's really difficult to be precise and most media presentations are too simplistic.

Firstly, the number of confirmed cases depends on the number of tests you do, and different countries have different testing protocols. Unless you test a large proportion of the population, you can't be confident that you know how many infections there are.

Secondly, UK is recording "deaths with coronoavirus" not "deaths from coronavirus". The problem is that many of the recorded deaths might have died anyway (I'm not trying to belittle the size of the emergency). This is worth a read:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654
One thing this means is that you can't compare C-19 deaths with the numbers due to seasonal flu, because those are adjusted to only include flu deaths.

So when you try to calculate the mortality rate you're dividing one fuzzy number by another one. No wonder it seems to be so different in different countries.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 28, 2020, 08:36:48 AM
My worry was for the poor souls in North Korea. It must be there given their border and trade with China. But with next to no health system, poor nutrition and poor accommodation it must be ripping through the population. Just not reported.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: springswood on March 28, 2020, 08:53:38 AM
For anyone wanting to understand the figures I'd highly recommend the Radio 4 program More or Less. It's all about clarifying and debunking misleading statistics. I've been a loyal listener for many years and it's a delight, clear, reliable (part of the Open University somehow) and funny  (in a very dry British way). There's three recent episodes about corona virus.
You can get it as a podcast or on the BBC Sounds website.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 28, 2020, 10:09:12 AM
So when you try to calculate the mortality rate you're dividing one fuzzy number by another one. No wonder it seems to be so different in different countries.

That's what I can see. Everyone is using different criteria, and countries are doing wildly different levels of testing, hence the headline statistics are not comparable.

I know we have our own problems, but I really worry about the US. They say testing outside NY State is very patchy indeed, and the case tally is only the very tip of the iceberg.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 28, 2020, 10:20:19 AM
What did you make of the Deputy Chief Medical Officer saying the following in yesterday's press conference?

Quote
WHO recommends testing because it’s advising all countries including low & middle income countries whereas Britain has an advanced healthcare system so it’s not appropriate


I don't remember the WHO qualifying their "test, test, test" advice with anything like this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: springswood on March 28, 2020, 10:23:36 AM
I worry about the USA too. It's distressing that they could act but may not.

As for many developing countries in Africa, South America, Asia I fear it will be horrific.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on March 28, 2020, 10:35:37 AM
What did you make of the Deputy Chief Medical Officer saying the following in yesterday's press conference?

Quote
WHO recommends testing because it’s advising all countries including low & middle income countries whereas Britain has an advanced healthcare system so it’s not appropriate


I don't remember the WHO qualifying their "test, test, test" advice with anything like this?
Nor me. I interpreted the "test, test, test" advice as a not so subtle (and much needed) hint at the UK.

last edit Added (and much needed)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on March 28, 2020, 01:37:38 PM
What did you make of the Deputy Chief Medical Officer saying the following in yesterday's press conference?

Quote
WHO recommends testing because it’s advising all countries including low & middle income countries whereas Britain has an advanced healthcare system so it’s not appropriate


I don't remember the WHO qualifying their "test, test, test" advice with anything like this?

That is teh same Deputy Chief Medical Officer who - when asked why teh UK had not bought up stocks of testing equipment before the virus really got going in the UK said:

"It's a new virus and they are not available."

Thus ignoring China had been testing for three months and S Korea for two months. AndS Korea pproduces its own test kits... as does China.

So either pig ignorant or a liar...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 28, 2020, 06:07:36 PM
"It's a new virus and they are not available."
I heard that and to me, it meant they were not available to buy. China were keeping and using the ones they manufactured and South Korea the same. The few others that were being manufactured were being snapped up by the rest of the world, mainly through profiteering middlemen. The UK government said they would not deal with these speculators.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on March 29, 2020, 09:17:07 AM
It will be interesting to see what happens in Sweden https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293 .

Personally, I would prefer that those who are neither very old nor have pre-existing health problems are allowed to get on with life while the more vulnerable are protected. Yes, more will catch the virus sooner but if these suffer symptoms no worse than those experienced by our PM then we also we'll reach the herd immunity stage sooner. I also have to wonder whether the virus has mutated into different strains and some have become less potent, perhaps after being passed on by the healthy people. However, policy is steered by what the medics have encountered, which is the more potent version. Meanwhile, once the PM and the health secretary have got over their encounters with Covid-19 and acquired immunity then they will be able to join the NHS front line without needing PPE.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 29, 2020, 09:43:30 AM
Personally, I would prefer that those who are neither very old nor have pre-existing health problems are allowed to get on with life while the more vulnerable are protected. Yes, more will catch the virus sooner but if these suffer symptoms no worse than those experienced by our PM then we also we'll reach the herd immunity stage sooner.

If herd immunity even exists against a virus with multiple mutations.

The problem with letting it run its natural course is that high numbers with minor symptoms will inevitably go hand in hand with higher numbers in ICU, and in the UK, 50% of ICU cases are currently dying. It's not only old people and people with respiratory health conditions that are ending up in hospital.

Some hospitals in Spain and Italy have been forced to offer only palliative care to older citizens.


I also have to wonder whether the virus has mutated into different strains and some have become less potent, perhaps after being passed on by the healthy people.

It doesn't work like that. The weaker strains self select by not killing their hosts. Unfortunately, many thousands with less than 100% health will have to die first.

There are already multiple strains in circulation, I read about a case in Iceland the other day who was infected with both of the most common strains simultaneously.

https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/24/patient-infected-with-two-strains-of-covid-19-in-iceland/

There were 8 strains of the SARS virus in the end.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 29, 2020, 10:26:57 AM
I would prefer that those who are neither very old nor have pre-existing health problems are allowed to get on with life
There are young people dying daily, here and around the world, who were fit and well before the virus. Yes, it kills the sick and elderly, but it also kills the young and fit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on March 29, 2020, 11:12:01 AM
I would prefer that those who are neither very old nor have pre-existing health problems are allowed to get on with life
There are young people dying daily, here and around the world, who were fit and well before the virus. Yes, it kills the sick and elderly, but it also kills the young and fit.

Quite.

I get a regular bulletin from a forum relating to my last job. On Friday we were advised of a colleague and his daughter who have just died from Covid 19. He was 61 and she was 33. No known health issues. I didn't know this chap and his daughter but it's a salutary lesson.

It's still the case that most will survive it but it's crucial we try and limit the spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 29, 2020, 11:15:34 AM
It also seems to target men slightly more than women.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: springswood on March 29, 2020, 11:28:48 AM
It was explained to me that that's to do with "viral load". If you pick up a lot of the virus at once your immune system doesn't have time to react, the virus builds up quickly in your body and the disease is more severe. That can happen to young people who don't practice social distancing. It's also why washing your hands frequently helps. (Though I've still not seen a number for that, presumably not every 5 minutes but is every hour frequent?) So, although it's unrealistic to think you won't pick up the virus at all, if you can minimise the amount you pick up at any one time your body has more time to develop antibodies to fight the infection and it's likely to be less severe.

I don't claim this is medical gospel but it maes sense to me and helps me to have a way to see what I'm achieving by social distancing and the rest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: springswood on March 29, 2020, 11:35:33 AM
It also seems to target men slightly more than women.

I have a silly theory about that. I'd been out walking my dog in some woods nearby that also has amazing tracks, jumps and so on for BMX. I passed a couple of teenage lads taking a break by their bikes. Not only were they much less than 2m apart, one of them coughed three times in the time it took me to walk by. It got the daft part of my brain working...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 29, 2020, 01:58:23 PM
It also seems to target men slightly more than women.

Interesting write up about that here

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/men-are-much-more-likely-to-die-from-coronavirus-but-why
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on March 29, 2020, 02:04:52 PM
It was explained to me that that's to do with "viral load". If you pick up a lot of the virus at once your immune system doesn't have time to react, the virus builds up quickly in your body and the disease is more severe. 
That makes sense - a small dose of bugs helps to keep the immune system in practice without over-whelming it.

Quote
I get a regular bulletin from a forum relating to my last job. On Friday we were advised of a colleague and his daughter who have just died from Covid 19. He was 61 and she was 33. No known health issues. I didn't know this chap and his daughter but it's a salutary lesson.
That's the statistic which should get reported - deaths without other known health problems - as the current reports all seem to say "tested positive for coronavirus" and usually "had other underlying health issues" (or similar wording). Then we can compare deaths purely due to Covid-19 with other causes including road accidents (which must have dropped substantially in the past week or so). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 29, 2020, 03:22:05 PM
Quote
I get a regular bulletin from a forum relating to my last job. On Friday we were advised of a colleague and his daughter who have just died from Covid 19. He was 61 and she was 33. No known health issues. I didn't know this chap and his daughter but it's a salutary lesson.
That's the statistic which should get reported - deaths without other known health problems - as the current reports all seem to say "tested positive for coronavirus" and usually "had other underlying health issues" (or similar wording).

While I understand what you're saying, the other half would certainly fall into the "had underlying health issues" category, but she wouldn't expect to die from them in the next 3 months, or probably the next 30 years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 29, 2020, 04:02:29 PM
Some hospitals in Spain and Italy have been forced to offer only palliative care to older citizens.

Further to this point, this is worth a read

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/29/why-isolation-is-a-matter-of-life-and-death-covid-19-cancer-

Quote
The first time my oncologist explained it I didn’t understand. “If you get coronavirus I won’t be able to get you a bed in the ICU,” she said. “That’s OK,” I said cheerfully, imagining there would be a bed somewhere else in the hospital in which I would lie coughing.

It was only when I put the phone down that her words hit home. What she was telling me wasn’t that there were no beds in the ICU but that there were no beds for me specifically. As the possible peak of the disease approaches and doctors face increasingly difficult decisions, so wartime triage will come into play. As a patient with stage IV cancer I will not pass that triage test. My life will not be considered long enough to save.

While they haven’t spelled it out, this simple, bleak truth is largely what lies behind the government’s shielding policy for people like me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 29, 2020, 05:42:24 PM
The whole country has been put into a state of emergency, everywhere from Cornwall to Cumbria. Looks like Scotland has been given its independence without a second referendum!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 29, 2020, 06:55:38 PM
The whole country has been put into a state of emergency, everywhere from Cornwall to Cumbria. Looks like Scotland has been given its independence without a second referendum!

What Jenrick said in the press conference, whilst fiddling constantly with his papers, is that all parts of the country were on an 'emergency footing'. I'm not actually sure what that means in reality.

I hope he's better at disaster management than political panel shows, he got a right drubbing from the editor of The Lancet on Question Time. He's not much good as a local MP either, too busy climbing the ladder.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 29, 2020, 08:59:45 PM
The UK may not have all the ventilators it needs by the time coronavirus cases reach their peak.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52083998

Quote
Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove said the UK was capable of producing all the units it needed itself. But manufacturers have said the country may not to be able to do so in the timeframe required to face the peak of UK infections.

Meanwhile, the UK Government rejects outright a rudimentary stopgap design by Gtech, refuses an offer to import 5,000 ventilators within a week and 20,000 more to follow, and then lies about the reasons why they chose not to collaborate with the EU project to procure supplies of ventilators, ppe and other necessities.

Gtech have made their ventilator design freely available to anyone around the world who wants to make them

https://www.gtech.co.uk/ventilators#latest

Quote
“We designed the ventilator entirely from parts that can readily be made from stock materials or bought off-the-shelf. This means that Gtech ventilators can be made by almost any engineering and manufacturing company around the world”
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on March 29, 2020, 09:06:43 PM
What Jenrick said in the press conference, whilst fiddling constantly with his papers, is that all parts of the country were on an 'emergency footing'. I'm not actually sure what that means in reality.
Yes, then he qualified it by saying "everywhere from Cornwall to Cumbria".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: guest8810 on March 30, 2020, 11:17:59 AM
What Jenrick said in the press conference, whilst fiddling constantly with his papers, is that all parts of the country were on an 'emergency footing'. I'm not actually sure what that means in reality.
Yes, then he qualified it by saying "everywhere from Cornwall to Cumbria".

Article in Daily Telegraph this Morning might be of interest ??Police issue 25 coronavirus fines in Scotland over the weekend
Police Scotland issued 25 fixed penalty notices over the weekend to people flouting the regulations introduced in a bid to stop people from spreading coronavirus in public places.

Deputy Chief Constable Malcolm Graham told BBC Radio Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme he thought it was "strong evidence of how these extraordinary powers have had an impact in such a short space of time with communities across Scotland".

Mr Graham said: "We've also received a significant number of calls firstly from people asking how do we comply with these regulations and secondly reporting people they felt were breaching them.

"We responded to those calls to make sure we could again explain why it was important, encourage people to comply with them, and in those very small number of occasions use the enforcement powers that we've got where that very small minority of people just refuse to comply with what is required.

"We had a number of house parties still going on we were called to attend and if people refuse to break those up then notices could be issued.

"We had groups of people outside and again if people have refused to comply then that was some of the circumstances and in a very small number of cases we issued fixed penalty notices to businesses that were still operating where it was not appropriate that they should continue to given the regulations that are in place."

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on March 30, 2020, 11:20:27 AM
What Jenrick said in the press conference, whilst fiddling constantly with his papers, is that all parts of the country were on an 'emergency footing'. I'm not actually sure what that means in reality.
Yes, then he qualified it by saying "everywhere from Cornwall to Cumbria".

But what does it actually mean in practice though?

I'm sure you're a tougher lot north of the border.  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 07, 2020, 06:58:35 PM
My wife has been in for her Radiotherapy two days this week but due to an issue, they are stopping until next Tuesday and restarting her then (issue with my wife - not the Cancer Unit).
The Staff Nurse was telling her that all the staff in the Cancer Centre are tested for the virus every shift. Good news when you think that all their patients are in the "Vulnerable" category.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: VicW on April 07, 2020, 07:28:34 PM
I suppose it had to come. I went for a walk today and saw a discarded face mask thrown on the ground, as usual ten feet from a waste bin.

Vic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 07, 2020, 10:09:36 PM
I suppose it had to come. I went for a walk today and saw a discarded face mask thrown on the ground, as usual ten feet from a waste bin.

Anyone noticed discarded surgical gloves in supermarket car parks? Scruffy swines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on April 08, 2020, 07:51:44 AM
Anyone noticed discarded surgical gloves in supermarket car parks? Scruffy swines.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/in-pictures-52188627
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinS on April 08, 2020, 07:55:09 AM
I suppose it had to come. I went for a walk today and saw a discarded face mask thrown on the ground, as usual ten feet from a waste bin.

Anyone noticed discarded surgical gloves in supermarket car parks? Scruffy swines.

The word for these people is "selfish".  Some people just don't get it no matter how many times it is explained in the media.  It's not all about you, it's about stopping it spreading.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinS on April 08, 2020, 07:59:12 AM
Now that travel restrictions in Hubei have been lifted, I wonder how long it will be before the second peak in cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 08, 2020, 09:57:53 AM
The word for these people is "selfish".  Some people just don't get it no matter how many times it is explained in the media.  It's not all about you, it's about stopping it spreading.

Makes me bloody fume, there'll be a bin ten feet away.

If a parking chit blows out of the car, I feel so guilty I'm chasing it across the car park.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 08, 2020, 10:57:32 AM
Some don't even discard it on the ground but leave it in the trolley for the next poor s*d.
See the latest advice is to keep cats indoors as cats can catch and spread the virus to other cats.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 08, 2020, 10:58:28 AM
There is a name for the morons..

'Covidiots'

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Covidiot
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on April 08, 2020, 11:29:05 AM
Some don't even discard it on the ground but leave it in the trolley for the next poor s*d.
See the latest advice is to keep cats indoors as cats can catch and spread the virus to other cats.

My pet hate. Other people's rubbish in supermarket trolleys.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 08, 2020, 05:36:58 PM
Some don't even discard it on the ground but leave it in the trolley for the next poor s*d.
See the latest advice is to keep cats indoors as cats can catch and spread the virus to other cats.

My pet hate. Other people's rubbish in supermarket trolleys.

Probably the same people who get KFC or McDonalds and sit in car to eat it,  then throw the whole lot under their car and drive off, even when on KFC or McD carpark with a bin 6 feet away.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinS on April 08, 2020, 06:24:47 PM
I suppose it had to come. I went for a walk today and saw a discarded face mask thrown on the ground, as usual ten feet from a waste bin.

Anyone noticed discarded surgical gloves in supermarket car parks? Scruffy swines.

I can understand all of your thoughts on this but were not talking about rubbish that can be discarded in public litter bins here.  Surgical masks and gloves are potentially infected (otherwise why use them) and must be taken home and double bagged for the rubbish collection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 08, 2020, 07:06:12 PM
I can understand all of your thoughts on this but were not talking about rubbish that can be discarded in public litter bins here.  Surgical masks and gloves are potentially infected (otherwise why use them) and must be taken home and double bagged for the rubbish collection.

True enough, however I wasn't suggesting that a bin was the right place for these items - just passing comment that they were littering Asda's car park. If we can't get shoppers to put them in a bin, which they probably have to walk past, what chance is there of them taking them home?

Encouraging people to throw them in a bin, or better still a designated receptacle, surely has to be better than dropping them on the floor for the car park litter picker to clean up. I doubt asking shoppers to take them home will work, unless it's backed up with some sort of sanctions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kenneve on April 08, 2020, 07:35:04 PM
''See the latest advice is to keep cats indoors as cats can catch and spread the virus to other cats.''

Fake News - According to my daughter, who works at a large Veterinary Practice in the West Midlands.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 08, 2020, 08:10:30 PM
Fake News - According to my daughter, who works at a large Veterinary Practice in the West Midlands.
So the BBC is putting out fake news? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52204534 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52204534)

If you don't want to read the whole article.

The British Veterinary Association (BVA) president Daniella Dos Santos told BBC News she agreed with that advice. But the association has since clarified that its recommendation to concerned pet-owners is to take the precaution of keeping cats indoors "only if someone in their own household showed symptoms".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on April 08, 2020, 08:56:59 PM
I can understand how cats can carry (not catch) the virus. Consider, for example, that an infected person coughs over their pet, then that pet rubs against another pet and passes over some virus that's on their fur and the second pet then gets stroked by a human who thus becomes contaminated. To me, catching a virus means getting internally infected by it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 08, 2020, 09:13:45 PM
To me, catching a virus means getting internally infected by it.
Cats can catch Covid 19 as the tiger at the Bronx zoo did. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52177586 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52177586)
Cats can also pass the infection on to other cats. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00984-8 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00984-8)

There is no evidence that cats can pass the virus to humans other than the chance they have it on their fur, you touch them, then touch your face.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: guest8810 on April 09, 2020, 08:32:25 AM
There is a name for the morons..

'Covidiots'

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Covidiot

Or selfish Me Me  Barstewards!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 09, 2020, 10:13:54 AM
I don't want to teach my granny how to suck eggs but when taking off rubber gloves the other day I found myself having to think to avoid possible contamination.

How to remove rubber gloves safely.
https://www.globus.co.uk/how-to-safely-remove-disposable-gloves
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 09, 2020, 11:35:42 AM
I don't want to teach my granny how to suck eggs

No, it's a fair point. It comes second nature to those of us who have used them on a regular basis, but it's easy to recontaminate yourself removing them.

I used them mainly when maintaining production line inkjet printers, you soon learn to take them off without covering yourself in ink! Unfortunately, you can't see this damn thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 09, 2020, 12:04:33 PM
There is a name for the morons..

'Covidiots'

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Covidiot

Or selfish Me Me  Barstewards!!!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-52221688
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52225121
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 09, 2020, 04:25:03 PM
Is there a word for these barstewards too?

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/mps-given-an-extra-10000-to-work-from-home/09/04/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 09, 2020, 06:04:10 PM
Is there a word for these barstewards too?

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/mps-given-an-extra-10000-to-work-from-home/09/04/

They may be having to clean out their own moat or duckpond with staff shortages being what they are.  Wonder which home some of them will be working from as well ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 09, 2020, 07:44:54 PM
They may be having to clean out their own moat or duckpond with staff shortages being what they are.  Wonder which home some of them will be working from as well ?

My MP lives in Herefordshire, 130 miles away from his constituency... where you very rarely see him.


Here he is, visiting his parents in Shropshire, shortly after telling us all to stop at home.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/cabinet-minister-robert-jenrick-visited-his-parents-during-covid-19-lockdown
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 09, 2020, 09:24:01 PM
My MP lives in Herefordshire, 130 miles away from his constituency... where you very rarely see him.

Here he is, visiting his parents in Shropshire, shortly after telling us all to stop at home.


Catherine Calderwood resigned as Chief Medical Officer for Scotland for a similar indiscretion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 10, 2020, 11:12:00 AM
Here he is, visiting his parents in Shropshire, shortly after telling us all to stop at home.
He was taking essentials to his parents, 40 miles from his home. The same thing I do (and same distance) once a week, for my aged mother-in-law.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 10, 2020, 11:43:47 AM
Here he is, visiting his parents in Shropshire, shortly after telling us all to stop at home.
He was taking essentials to his parents, 40 miles from his home. The same thing I do (and same distance) once a week, for my aged mother-in-law.
He says --He was taking essentials to his parents, 40 miles from his home. The same thing I do (and same distance) once a week, for my aged mother-in-law.

but neighbours were already looking after his parents regarding medicines and groceries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: guest8810 on April 10, 2020, 12:52:35 PM
Is there a word for these barstewards too?

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/mps-given-an-extra-10000-to-work-from-home/09/04/

Having read the link provided by Jim,I think the word could be Speechless, what about the comment WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER, If that is the case, and I suspect in this situation it is not.The rest of us cannot say pull up the ladder Jack I’m alright.
But keep calm and carry on.
Oh by the way Happy Easter to you all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 10, 2020, 04:38:21 PM
Here he is, visiting his parents in Shropshire, shortly after telling us all to stop at home.
He was taking essentials to his parents, 40 miles from his home. The same thing I do (and same distance) once a week, for my aged mother-in-law.

As JimSh says, neighbours were organised for supplies, and I'm sure meds could be delivered.

He shouldn't have even been there. He had already travelled 150 miles from his home in London to his 'other' home out in the country during the lockdown. Isn't that exactly what the Scottish CMO did? I thought you were supposed to stay where you were?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 11, 2020, 12:17:27 PM
Note the quote ' putting someone on a ventilator causes a disease known as being on a ventilator'..

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Ventilators-aren-t-a-panacea-for-a-pandemic-like-coronavirus?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BOCH%20%2020200409%20%20GC&utm_content=BOCH%20%2020200409%20%20GC+CID_e56628a9c93f67dcca94bad7d36f8e6c&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_term=Ventilators%20arent%20a%20panacea%20for%20a%20pandemic%20like%20coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 11, 2020, 12:22:46 PM
A brilliant article. It is a sobering thought that 50% of those placed in critical care don't survive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 11, 2020, 12:54:05 PM
I have read articles about some companies developing more modern 'negative pressure ' ventilator more like the older 'iron lung' ( used to be used in cases of polio ) where the air / oxygen is drawn into lungs by the cyclic decrease and increase in pressure inside a 'tank' that covers patient from neck down to lower abdomen,  the decrease and increase in external pressure causes chest to rise and fall sort of naturally and avoids some of the worst effects of having a tube pushed into lungs ...

Some NHS hospitals are testing the updated negative pressure ventilators as a way of avoiding intubation ( which is required with positive pressure ventilators), which can cause all sorts of nasty side affects - as described in Spectator article i just posted.

I remember the Austin or Morris motor company turned out mass produced iron lungs in 1940's and 50's - they are much less complicated that the positive pressure ones.

https://www.theengineer.co.uk/exovent-covid-19-ventilator/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinS on April 11, 2020, 03:39:05 PM
https://www.theengineer.co.uk/exovent-covid-19-ventilator/
Extract from the article: "Instead, they can remain conscious, take medication and nutrition by mouth, and talk on the phone."  Good to see the priorities are there for modern lifestyle :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 12, 2020, 02:11:24 PM
Peter Hitchens makes some good points here.. what is going on ?

Quote from article..

'A week ago, at the daily official briefing, Dr Jenny Harries, the Deputy Chief Medical Officer, confirmed my point that many deaths with Covid are not necessarily from Covid. She said: 'These are Covid-associated deaths, they are all sad events, they would not all be a death as a result of Covid.'

What nobody says is how many are as a result of the virus'.


He compares daily death rate for a normal day this time of year and comes up with a figure of about 140 'excess deaths' -  compare that with the government figure.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8211307/PETER-HITCHENS-Matt-Hancock-trying-run-UK-like-1950s-prep-school.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 12, 2020, 02:22:53 PM
Peter Hitchens makes some good points here.. what is going on ?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8211307/PETER-HITCHENS-Matt-Hancock-trying-run-UK-like-1950s-prep-school.html

I follow Peter Hitchens on twitter (he's posting on there all day, every day), and he's undoubtedly an intelligent and insightful man, but has some very odd opinions. I find myself absolutely agreeing with half of what he says, but the other half is total cobblers.

Of the many thousands of people with underlying conditions who have died, most would have still been going about their business had they not contracted the virus. To try to argue that their deaths are not due to the coronavirus is absolute balony.

Now I hear Tim Brooke-Taylor has died of coronavirus, I'm sad.  :'(


Why doesn't the 'cry' smiley work?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 12, 2020, 03:08:50 PM


To try to argue that their deaths are not due to the coronavirus is absolute balony.



All he did was compare the normal background daily death rate from all causes ( 500,000 per year or about 1400 per day ( includes normal seasonal flu ) when the the SARS-CoV-2 virus or some other pandemic is NOT around )  in UK with the present death rate and came up with a figure of 144 'extra deaths'  - compare that 144 with the government figures of deaths 'attributed' to COVID-19 and there is a massive discrepancy somewhere..... he is right to point this out, the figures are getting screwed up somewhere..

We should be seeing a drop in road and industrial deaths with the shutdown, but about 5 people per day are killed on UK roads, probably 1 per day or less in industrial accidents - they make no difference to the figures really...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 12, 2020, 05:21:39 PM
The government figures are not TOTAL deaths each day but Covid deaths in hospital. The ONS figures are not TOTAL deaths, just deaths where Coronavirus is listed as a possible factor. Comparing them to the usual background is just BS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on April 12, 2020, 05:44:48 PM
Deaths figures are also not real time but approx half are prior day and the rest a mix of prior week and up to 3 weeks ago... Some places do not count over the weekend  - so weekend numbers reported SUuday/Monday  are low - but then reported Tuesday /Wednesday...
Deaths in caree homes or at home are excluded from Government figures _ France includes them..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 12, 2020, 06:31:31 PM
All he did was compare the normal background daily death rate from all causes ( 500,000 per year or about 1400 per day ( includes normal seasonal flu ) when the the SARS-CoV-2 virus or some other pandemic is NOT around )  in UK with the present death rate and came up with a figure of 144 'extra deaths'  - compare that 144 with the government figures of deaths 'attributed' to COVID-19 and there is a massive discrepancy somewhere..... he is right to point this out, the figures are getting screwed up somewhere..

Peter is a professional contrarian, and loves to push his pro-'freedom to do what you like' ideals. He chooses figures for his arguments very carefully. These coronavirus deaths aren't instead of influenza deaths and all the other causes, they are in addition.

Even if you accept his figures, Hitchens is implying that because we normally have 1600 deaths per day, adding a few hundred more is no big deal. He completely ignores the point that we are just at the beginning, and that those 1600 are from all diseases, accidents, old age, etc. (some of these causes subdued in the current situation), while the extra are from a single disease - and concentrated in a few short weeks, rather than spread over a full year or quarter.

He's trying to make out that the figures are insignificant, when they most certainly are significant, and will become so in the very near future. I can't remember the last time the Government built overflow hospitals, saw hospitals running out of equipment and ppe, even reports of shortages of body bags reported in some hospitals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on April 12, 2020, 07:01:25 PM
All he did was compare the normal background daily death rate from all causes ( 500,000 per year or about 1400 per day ( includes normal seasonal flu ) when the the SARS-CoV-2 virus or some other pandemic is NOT around )  in UK with the present death rate and came up with a figure of 144 'extra deaths'  - compare that 144 with the government figures of deaths 'attributed' to COVID-19 and there is a massive discrepancy somewhere..... he is right to point this out, the figures are getting screwed up somewhere..

Peter is a professional contrarian, and loves to push his pro-'freedom to do what you like' ideals. He chooses figures for his arguments very carefully. These coronavirus deaths aren't instead of influenza deaths and all the other causes, they are in addition.

Even if you accept his figures, Hitchens is implying that because we normally have 1600 deaths per day, adding a few hundred more is no big deal. He completely ignores the point that we are just at the beginning, and that those 1600 are from all diseases, accidents, old age, etc. (some of these causes subdued in the current situation), while the extra are from a single disease - and concentrated in a few short weeks, rather than spread over a full year or quarter.

He's trying to make out that the figures are insignificant, when they most certainly are significant, and will become so in the very near future. I can't remember the last time the Government built overflow hospitals, saw hospitals running out of equipment and ppe, even reports of shortages of body bags reported in some hospitals.

Spot on.

And since when has death from old age/alcoholism, cancer , heart attacks etc   become CONTAGIOUS?

Covid is largely dangerous because it is contagious.

His comparison is a travesty of the key facts of the virus...

(I don't read him because teh few good articles are outclassed and outnumbered  by the absolute rubbish)


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on April 12, 2020, 07:02:04 PM
To try to argue that their deaths are not due to the coronavirus is absolute balony.

This, for once, very balanced account from the BBC sets out to help understanding the death figures, as such.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

I am afraid the NHS are playing foot loose and furious with the data which was always about NHS confirmed cases for resource planning . They have used the death figures with, rather than from , COVID-19 to terrorise the nation. Now that they have not been caught out (exposed by their failure in contingency planning) the figures are being blended with not only their own confirmed cases but also those of third parties, just to muddy the waters further.

The number of people who have died of the virus, (rather than with the virus) is very small. The consequence of the NHS being overrun (600,000 premature deaths or double the normal annual rate) due to lack of planning would have been catastrophic for public order.

It would seem so far (and it is anybodies  guess) only 5% of the population (3 million) have been infected so far, so we still have a long long way to go. (But the NHS can now handle it with surplus capacity - so that's OK).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 12, 2020, 08:53:39 PM

I am afraid the NHS are playing foot loose and furious with the data which was always about NHS confirmed cases for resource planning . They have used the death figures with, rather than from , COVID-19 to terrorise the nation. Now that they have not been caught out (exposed by their failure in contingency planning) the figures are being blended with not only their own confirmed cases but also those of third parties, just to muddy the waters further.

It's not the NHS, but the government who have been muddying the waters by using only the figures from hospital deaths instead of counting the total number of deaths. (Including residential homes and elsewhere).
Similarly it's not the NHS who have been caught out by lack of contingency planning. The government were aware of the the consequences of a pandemic following their Exercise Cygnus in 2016 yet chose not to make preparations and continued to underfund the NHS.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/government-under-fire-over-ppe-and-testing-as-uk-death-toll-passes-10000

Latest edit Added Guardian link

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 13, 2020, 09:42:05 AM
The government figures are not TOTAL deaths each day but Covid deaths in hospital. The ONS figures are not TOTAL deaths, just deaths where Coronavirus is listed as a possible factor. Comparing them to the usual background is just BS.

Due to the fact that surgery and many other treatments have been cancelled by hospitals there are going to be extra deaths anyway - maybe 'related' to virus because they were indirectly caused by the disruption it has caused to normal medicine - you cannot cancel normal procedures and still keep everyone fit and healthy.  I get the impression governments are blaming SARS-CoV-2 virus for everything they can just like they blame global warming / climate change ( unless they have changed the name of that again ) for everything a bit out of the ordinary that has happened in the short time we have been keeping records.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 13, 2020, 10:09:28 AM


Due to the fact that surgery and many other treatments have been cancelled by hospitals there are going to be extra deaths anyway - maybe 'related' to virus because they were indirectly caused by the disruption it has caused to normal medicine - you cannot cancel normal procedures and still keep everyone fit and healthy.  I get the impression governments are blaming SARS-CoV-2 virus for everything they can just like they blame global warming / climate change ( unless they have changed the name of that again ) for everything a bit out of the ordinary that has happened in the short time we have been keeping records.

People will die because of lack of hospital treatment, accidental injuries, unwillingness to go to hospital for fear of catching the virus etc.
Maybe these unnecessary deaths should be attributed to the virus too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on April 13, 2020, 12:33:54 PM
One thing we can be sure of is that the consequences of Brexit will be negligible when compared to the impact of this coronavirus.

However, I would still like to see some statistics showing the mortality rate, sub-divided into age groups) of Covid-19 among those with no other known health problems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on April 13, 2020, 02:55:23 PM
I'm not sure there have been any deaths without an underlying health condition.

(Judging by the queues outside our local chemist, it looks like most of the population has at least one to chose from  ;)).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 13, 2020, 04:50:57 PM
Quote below is from a 'Spectator' article 'Covids double whammy'....

 
The NHS has successfully scaled up and is now unlikely to be overwhelmed by the Covid-19 crisis. Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, would not be so bold as to say so in such blatant terms but the striking figures tell the story on their own. The double-whammy effect of the virus is to take lives directly, and indirectly by denying healthcare to others. Before the crisis, only 800 of the NHS’s 4,100 critical care beds were vacant at any one time. Now, it’s 2,295 – and rising. Even with a Covid-19 fatality rate of more than 900 per day, one of the worst in Europe, the NHS is not being overrun. The Spectator understands that a rule of thumb is being used: a third of NHS intensive care beds are being taken by Covid-19 patients, a third by other patients and a third are empty. This rough calculation raises interesting questions: it implies just over 2,000 critical care beds are being used by non-Covid patients, but before the crisis the figure was closer to 3,300. What has happened to the other patients? A&E attendance fell by a third last month (see graph, below). The FT reports that almost half of beds in some English hospitals are lying empty ‘in a sign that people may be failing to seek help for other life-threatening conditions during the pandemic’. In Scotland there were 643 more deaths than usual in the week to 5 April – but just 282 Covid-19 deaths. In New York, doctors report fewer patients seeking treatment for heart attacks: the same may well be happening here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 13, 2020, 05:07:51 PM
I just been watching a care home owner being interviewed on BBC News who said that they had 16 residents currently with symptoms, and are being refused hospital treatment - there's no wonder the NHS is coping better than expected.

She was 'berated', as she put it, by NHS 111 for asking them to take a resident with a tracheostomy because they were unable to obtain the ppe for staff to safely deal with them.

She said it was soul destroying watching people die without any treatment. If there is all this excess capacity, why are they refusing to take elderly patients?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 13, 2020, 05:30:02 PM
The NHS uses the clinical frailty scale to assess patients - it was developed by Canadians but used by many health systems.  It means that when certain people are judged to be too frail to benefit from critical care intervention they probably will not be transferred to hospital /  ICU  - these life or death decisions are made by clinicians and medical ethnicists every day in health systems all over the world, not just when there is a pandemic, unfortunately the present situation has meant there may be more of these decisions to be made than normal, and they are being highlighted..

https://www.scfn.org.uk/clinical-frailty-scale
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on April 13, 2020, 06:13:02 PM
I just been watching a care home owner being interviewed on BBC News who said that they had 16 residents currently with symptoms, and are being refused hospital treatment - there's no wonder the NHS is coping better than expected.

She was 'berated', as she put it, by NHS 111 for asking them to take a resident with a tracheostomy because they were unable to obtain the ppe for staff to safely deal with them.

She said it was soul destroying watching people die without any treatment. If there is all this excess capacity, why are they refusing to take elderly patients?

Speaking to a friend I meaat on my daily walk. His wife is having treatment for bowle cancer (early stages).
MRI scan Saturday.. only one of  three machines operating... 18 scans due to be done vs 60 in a normal Saturday..

Car Park empty..vs Full.

I suspect if you are judged "can't treat successfully" , then they no longer view you as a viable patient and don't see you..

Perfectly justifiable way of reducing caseloads..

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 13, 2020, 07:31:09 PM
Channel 4 news well worth a look tonight re reporting of Covid 19 related deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 13, 2020, 11:32:25 PM
I suspect if you are judged "can't treat successfully" , then they no longer view you as a viable patient and don't see you..

Perfectly justifiable way of reducing caseloads..

How can they judge whether you are a viable patient if the doctor doesn't even see you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on April 14, 2020, 06:52:38 AM
I believe there is a scoring system.
Over 75 years old and lots of issues scores very low on the "let's treat" scale.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 14, 2020, 07:57:25 AM
The sad fact is that if someone is in a care home they will very likely be highly dependent and not very active therefore at least 6 and more likely 7 or above on the clinical frailty scale - which is the red area on chart...   The NHS cannot allow every single ICU bed to be occupied - they always need a buffer to cater for unexpected surges or maybe even a terrorist attack, major train crash etc.  Medical staffing levels are also being affected by virus, self-isolation of staff etc.  A hospital 'bed' is not just furniture, it includes facilities and staff to make it into a viable bed, and  my neighbour has a daughter who is a nurse and every day they turn up for work they a routed through a scanner to check their temperature - his daughter was bleeped and told to isolate for 7 days - have not found out it it was a false alarm or not yet, you don't need too many medical staff off work to reduce number of available 'beds'...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 14, 2020, 09:50:19 AM
I was watching "Your Questions", on the BBC, and Chris Smith the virologist (Addenbrooke's) was answering the questions. He was asked about three preprints (manuscripts posted online before peer-review), in which the authors compared the incidence of COVID-19 cases in countries where the BCG vaccine is used with countries where it is not used and observed that countries that routinely used the vaccine in neonates had less reported cases of COVID-19 to date. WHO says there is no evidence https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/bacille-calmette-gu%C3%A9rin-(bcg)-vaccination-and-covid-19 (https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/bacille-calmette-gu%C3%A9rin-(bcg)-vaccination-and-covid-19) but it is strange that BAME have high levels of TB in their cultures whereas it was almost non-existent in the UK. And BAME seem to be dying at a high rate.
Chris said the reports said it improved chances of survival by a factor of 6. TB is a bacteria, not a virus but he said it may be that the changes to the immune system the TB jab made may have a positive effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 14, 2020, 10:41:41 AM
I believe there is a scoring system.
Over 75 years old and lots of issues scores very low on the "let's treat" scale.

Standard triage, but I don't think you currently need 'lots of issues' to be left untreated if you are over 75 and in a care home.

Did anyone else see the interview with the care home owner on BBC News? She was also on C4 News the same day. Previously healthy residents were dying in front of her, and she had failed to get any of them treated.

There was one case where a suspected care home covid death had their death certificate signed by a doctor, who had not seen the deceased, with dementia as a cause of death because they were over 80 - despite no previous diagnosis of dementia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 14, 2020, 11:29:41 AM
I believe there is a scoring system.
Over 75 years old and lots of issues scores very low on the "let's treat" scale.

Standard triage, but I don't think you currently need 'lots of issues' to be left untreated if you are over 75 and in a care home.

Did anyone else see the interview with the care home owner on BBC News? She was also on C4 News the same day. Previously healthy residents were dying in front of her, and she had failed to get any of them treated.

There was one case where a suspected care home covid death had their death certificate signed by a doctor, who had not seen the deceased, with dementia as a cause of death because they were over 80 - despite no previous diagnosis of dementia.

If the presence of Covid-19 is not acknowledged in care homes it means that they will quickly become  (or have become) hotbeds of infection - difficulty of isolation, staff caring for infected and non infected patients, staff without adequate PPE, patients unable to understand the concepts of hygiene and social distancing etc.
Deaths may not all be directly attributable to covid -19 but it must be a significant factor.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-uk-outside-hospital-care-home-latest-a9463621.html

"Coronavirus much more widespread in care homes than official figures suggests, says leading firm
Andrew Sparrow



On the Today programme this morning Sir David Behan, a former chief executive of the Care Quality Commission, and now a non-executive director for HC-One, one of Britain’s largest care home firms, said he thought the official figures for coronavirus in care homes were understating the scale of the problem.

Yesterday Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, said 13.5% of the UK’s care homes had a confirmed case of coronavirus among their residents. But, as we reported earlier (see 8.18am), Behan told Today that, by 8pm yesterday, there had been 2,447 cases of either suspected or confirmed Covid-19 within his company’s care homes. The virus was present in 232 of its homes, about two thirds of the total. "

last edit added Andrew Sparrow report
last edit added independent article
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on April 14, 2020, 12:49:33 PM
In due course the best way of attributing the deaths due to Covid-19 will be to look at the overall statistics and see how the deaths exceed the average. The official statistics are at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths but it can take several weeks for the data to be finalised.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 14, 2020, 02:09:24 PM
In due course the best way of attributing the deaths due to Covid-19 will be to look at the overall statistics and see how the deaths exceed the average. The official statistics are at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths but it can take several weeks for the data to be finalised.

In the week ending 3rd April  the number of deaths registered was16,387 which was 6,082 more than the five year average.

I think this is one week on from the figures quoted by Culzean, from the article by Peter Hitchens, earlier in the thread.
which claimed  an insignificant rise for that week (up to 27th March.)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

See Figure 1

Last edit Rearranged post
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 14, 2020, 02:50:56 PM
Canada is reporting that more than half their cases are in care homes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 14, 2020, 03:48:43 PM
In due course the best way of attributing the deaths due to Covid-19 will be to look at the overall statistics and see how the deaths exceed the average. The official statistics are at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths but it can take several weeks for the data to be finalised.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

I think this is one week on from the figures quoted by Culzean, from the article by Peter Hitchens, earlier in the thread
See Figure 1

According to Fig.5 in that link up to age 84 the Virus kills males twice as often as females,  but after 85 it becomes a bit more even.... Seems females have better immune system than males,  I have read it is down to hormones or their 'X' chromosome ...  ( I will soon be nicking my wifes HRT tablets but don't know where she keeps her chromosomes ).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 14, 2020, 08:01:56 PM
Government figures and Office for National Statistics figures.

Care homes and coronavirus: why we don't know the true UK death toll

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/care-homes-coronavirus-why-we-dont-know-true-uk-death-toll
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on April 14, 2020, 10:26:08 PM
The government has now also changed the basis on which it was reporting figures which are different to what they were.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

was

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

The old site showed only infections on hospital admission and deaths in hospital. Now the NHS has surplus resource capacity the basis of reporting is being further blurred. The NHS has no interest in Care Homes, just the NHS.

No one mentioned before that actual all deaths had been running below the average rate for the time of year.

As I posted before, the NHS are playing fast and furious with the figures to suit their own political advantage and playing the Government and Ministers beautifully to give the NHS cover. The NHS will get caught out eventually.

And what is this business about Care Home patients taken to Hospital with Covid-19 symptoms not even being tested and then returned to the Care Home where even Doctors do not go?

If one thing comes out of all this the Care Sector needs to be restructured (and probably partly nationalised as it is mostly paid for by the State) and included within a total structure which is totally integrated as a proper local cradle to grave national healthcare system.

 >:( >:( >:( >:( >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on April 15, 2020, 08:14:42 AM
The government's message has been all about "protecting the NHS" and adopted a lockdown strategy which is costing the economy hundreds of billions of £££s. The question needs to be asked why there wasn't sufficient PPE, etc. stockpiled somewhere ready for a highly contageous pandemic. The cost of such a stockpile would be small compared to the economic cost of the lockdown.

This also makes interesting reading https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/11/why-a-study-showing-that-covid-19-is-everywhere-is-good-news .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 15, 2020, 08:28:38 AM
The government's message has been all about "protecting the NHS" and adopted a lockdown strategy which is costing the economy hundreds of billions of £££s. The question needs to be asked why there wasn't sufficient PPE, etc. stockpiled somewhere ready for a highly contageous pandemic. The cost of such a stockpile would be small compared to the economic cost of the lockdown.

Absolutely.

In 2009, the WHO rated the UK and France as the best prepared countries for a pandemic.

The Health Protection Agency, responsible for pandemic planning, was shut down in 2013 and existing pandemic stockpiles were subsequently wound down. When Exercise Cygnus 2016, and the subsequent report in 2017, identified massive holes in capabilities and equipment, the findings were ignored on grounds of cost.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 15, 2020, 08:33:05 AM
Everywhere buried their head in the sand. After seeing Bill Gates' interview on BBC Breakfast I watched his TED Talk.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on April 15, 2020, 10:07:35 AM
When Exercise Cygnus 2016, and the subsequent report in 2017, identified massive holes in capabilities and equipment, the findings were ignored on grounds of cost.

Not quite "ignored on grounds of cost", Cygnus was based on the premise of a flu pandemic so the response was to lay in a warehouse-full of the wrong drugs, not to mention greatly under-estimating the size of a non-flu pandemic. This is a good review of how the UK's preparedness ended up where we are today:
https://members.tortoisemedia.com/2020/03/30/chris-cook-coronavirus-nhs-at-capacity/content.html?sig=keNLL8BRfhyxlRYS9-EoICk4I44jgZb_ahgq3Zdx6pY
(In case you've not come across it before, Tortoise is a "slow news" outlet that specialises in producing balanced factual investigative commentary rather than knee-jerk headlines. Well worth a subscription.)

Basically the theme is that the constant drive for efficiency across all public services - including the NHS - that's pervaded the UK for decades has resulted in the removal of the redundant capacity that you need to cope with unexpected events like a massive pandemic. Hence the frantic rush to build new hospitals and make new ventilators.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: springswood on April 15, 2020, 10:26:41 AM
Thanks Jocko, that was amazing, if depressing that so little action was taken.

I've thought for a long time that what someone so aptly described to me as 'that bunch of toffs' we've had in government for so long are much, much better at PR than government. The 'protect the NHS' line is pure PR and has been amazingly effective at getting our cooperation with the very restrictive, if necessary changes. However, when I look at what they do, rather than what they say, it seems to be mostly reacting to events. Cynically I suspect that only happens when it affects their popularity. So it's only when the shocking neglect of care home residents and staff is coming to light that they react. In general those reactions are to make the right promises. As with testing time will tell how well they do delivering on those.

At least we seems to have some standards still in public life. I'm simply staggered that in the US president Trump has withdrawn funding from the WHO. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52289056
Seems I was wrong a few weeks ago when I thought, well at least with a virus he won't be able to use his usual tactic and find someone to blame. I'm with Bill Gates who has already said, this is as dangerous as it sounds. Apparently it may also be about limiting China's global influence but even so it just seems a wrong thing at the wrong time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on April 15, 2020, 11:12:28 AM


At least we seems to have some standards still in public life. I'm simply staggered that in the US president Trump has withdrawn funding from the WHO. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52289056
Seems I was wrong a few weeks ago when I thought, well at least with a virus he won't be able to use his usual tactic and find someone to blame. I'm with Bill Gates who has already said, this is as dangerous as it sounds. Apparently it may also be about limiting China's global influence but even so it just seems a wrong thing at the wrong time.

"Nature abhors a vacuum"

Mr Trump has just created one..

Guess who may fill it? China..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 15, 2020, 01:00:47 PM


At least we seems to have some standards still in public life. I'm simply staggered that in the US president Trump has withdrawn funding from the WHO. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52289056
Seems I was wrong a few weeks ago when I thought, well at least with a virus he won't be able to use his usual tactic and find someone to blame. I'm with Bill Gates who has already said, this is as dangerous as it sounds. Apparently it may also be about limiting China's global influence but even so it just seems a wrong thing at the wrong time.

"Nature abhors a vacuum"

Mr Trump has just created one..

Guess who may fill it? China..


Why would you keep giving money to an organisation that is useless - the WHO believed China over Taiwan when Taiwan ( who cannot be a member of WHO because of pressure from China )_ Taiwan said China was covering up the severity and high infection rate of SARS-CoV-2 - and the WHO brushed the warning off - basically sided with China,  turns out Taiwan was correct and the WHO and Chinese were covering things up.   Things may have been a lot different if WHO had been on the ball and not acted like a wing of the Chinese communist party.

It has been obvious that WHO has been a waste of money for a long time,  this article back in 2017

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/obamacare-trump-health-ebola-flu-pandemic-who-reforms-cancer-tb-a7622416.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 15, 2020, 01:15:14 PM
On Monday I watched Nicola do the Scottish update and love her or hate she is good. No flannel, no PR. She just answered the questions head on. This spouting the mantra instead of answering the question, as we get from No 10 of an evening, if just sh*te.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 15, 2020, 02:26:01 PM
On Monday I watched Nicola do the Scottish update and love her or hate she is good. No flannel, no PR. She just answered the questions head on. This spouting the mantra instead of answering the question, as we get from No 10 of an evening, if just sh*te.
Quite agree. Very business like and to the point as opposed to the false promises, obfuscation and and downright lies from the procession of UK government representatives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: VicW on April 15, 2020, 02:52:12 PM
Quite agree. Very business like and to the point as opposed to the false promises, obfuscation and and downright lies from the procession of UK government representatives.
The never ending coverage on BBC of the virus situation is a bit extreme. We get told the same 'facts' three times in fifteen minutes by three different 'experts' or we get three different lots of opinions by even more 'experts'. When the usual news programmes come on we hear it all over again.

Vic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 15, 2020, 03:10:52 PM


Why would you keep giving money to an organisation that is useless -

It has been obvious that WHO has been a waste of money for a long time,  this article back in 2017

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/obamacare-trump-health-ebola-flu-pandemic-who-reforms-cancer-tb-a7622416.html

Interesting coincidental snippet from your article. In 2017 the WHO received almost as much from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation as it did from the US government.

"Now the WHO could face a funding struggle. The biggest providers are the US (more than $300m), the UK (around $195m) and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (about $300m)."

I dare say Elon could chip in as well.

I feel that an organisation like the WHO is necessary to oversee this crisis since it is a worldwide problem and it will become even more important when the disease really takes off in third world countries.

Trump is just making an even bigger  @rse of himself by withdrawing funding.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 15, 2020, 03:18:51 PM
My wife got her current account bank statement today and the front page was the "Financial Services Compensation Information Sheet", explaining what you are covered for if the bank goes bust. Ominous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 15, 2020, 03:42:09 PM
Everywhere buried their head in the sand. After seeing Bill Gates' interview on BBC Breakfast I watched his TED Talk.
Excellent. Made in 2015.
And the Gates Foundation letter
https://www.inc.com/geoffrey-james/bill-gates-slammed-donald-trump-this-morning.html

last edit Added link to letter
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on April 15, 2020, 09:42:10 PM
It's time to get back onto the thread topic!

Has this entitled "Coronavirus: How to understand the death toll" already been mentioned https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654 ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on April 16, 2020, 08:42:47 AM
I can't see our politicians taking a pay cut. :o It's not long since they awarded themselves an extra £10k allowance for working at home (yet expect everyone else who is working from home to do so without extra pay).

It's interesting to note that the New Zealand Covid-19 positive tests show a bias towards the women https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/e4e58e39a0ec410eb054f42012a27b4b . Perhaps that is a consequence of a testing regine which is searching for every case and not just those who are seriously sick and, by nature of employment, the 20-29 age group women were at higher risk of catching the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on April 16, 2020, 11:03:25 AM
From https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52308783

"More than nine in 10 people dying with coronavirus have an underlying health condition, figures from the Office for National Statistics show."

"The average number of conditions those who were dying had was 2.7."

Given that information, the gov't should be able to make a much more intelligent and selective approach to the lockdown and who needs to remain locked up until the vaccine arrives https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52308201 (by which time some of those locked up will have gone nuts and need other medical treatment).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on April 16, 2020, 11:34:13 AM
Does smoking PROTECT against coronavirus?

Chinese and US data shows a disproportionately small number of smokers admitted in hospitals.

A leading infectious disease expert at University College London, Professor Francois Balloux, said there is 'bizarrely strong' evidence it could be true.

And data from multiple Chinese studies shows that COVID-19 hospital patients contained a smaller proportion of smokers than the general population (6.5 per cent compared to 26.6 per cent), suggesting they were less likely to end up in hospital.

Another study, by America's Centers for Disease Control of over 7,000 people who tested positive for coronavirus, found that just 1.3 per cent of them were smokers - against the 14 per cent of all Americans that the CDC says smoke.

It is a claim that has been emerging around the world.

French scientist Professor Jean-François Delfraissy, who is leading a scientific council advising the country's government on COVID-19, said: 'We have something very special with tobacco.

'We have found that the vast majority of serious cases are not smokers, as if (…) tobacco protects against this virus, via nicotine,' French news site Sud Ouest reported.

Selectively edited from and much more at:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8214749/David-Hockney-claims-smoking-cigarettes-PROTECT-against-coronavirus.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 16, 2020, 11:46:34 AM
Does smoking PROTECT against coronavirus?

Chinese and US data shows a disproportionately small number of smokers admitted in hospitals.


Or perhaps most of the smokers have died prematurely from lung cancer, coronary heart disease, strokes or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 16, 2020, 11:55:28 AM
One of the contributory health conditions is obesity so that covers about 70% of the population. High blood pressure must be about the same. So there is 2 of the 2.7 conditions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 16, 2020, 12:05:21 PM
One of the contributory health conditions is obesity so that covers about 70% of the population. High blood pressure must be about the same. So there is 2 of the 2.7 conditions.

Indeed, you can take that 2.7 figure with a pinch of salt. There must be a huge number of health conditions with which you would not expect to die in the next 3 months, under normal circumstances.

It's almost as though some would want you to believe that these people would have died anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 16, 2020, 12:16:44 PM
I hadn't realised it had become as prevalent as this

"Firefighters are working 12-hour day and night shifts to remove the bodies of those who have died of coronavirus from hospitals, care homes, and private properties in one of the hardest hit parts of the UK.

A “body movement team” is made up of firefighters from West Midlands fire service (WMFS) with experience and training to move bodies from their work as frontline emergency workers.

“We hoped that it would never come to this, but there are now a considerable number of casualties in the West Midlands and firefighters are ready to step up and assist with the movement of bodies,” said Andrew Scattergood, West Midlands regional secretary of the Fire Brigades’ Union (FBU).

Almost a quarter of all deaths across the West Midlands have been attributed to coronavirus, according to figures released this week by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Some 529 who died in the first week of April were victims of the virus, out of 1,812 people who died."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/16/coronavirus-uk-live-news-covid-19-lockdown-extension

reported at 11.47
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 16, 2020, 12:50:51 PM
Fire fighters are ready to stand up. Ready being the operative word. We are a long way from mass graves and bodies shifted on low loaders. The usual Guardian hyperbole.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 16, 2020, 02:40:24 PM
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/west-midlands-fire-service-crews-18100767
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 16, 2020, 03:09:54 PM
All the way through the report it says "Ready", "Ready", "Ready". Only the FBU bit says "Are".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 16, 2020, 05:12:42 PM
Does smoking PROTECT against coronavirus?

I have worked with people who smoked quite heavily and rarely if ever got a cold,  but when they stopped they got colds just like everyone else.  I would say that smoking with the chemicals and tar that they inhale may well disable viruses by destroying the fatty envelope that normally protects the virus core.  but smoking certainly does not protect you against Lung and throat cancer......

On another topic ( the world health organisation and their closeness to China ) 
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/trump-has-a-point-the-who-has-failed?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020200416%20%20SM&utm_content=LNCH%20%2020200416%20%20SM+CID_e5ca5896c927274cff812cdea386d6cb&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_term=Trump%20has%20a%20point%20%20the%20WHO%20has%20failed
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on April 16, 2020, 06:28:40 PM
Does smoking PROTECT against coronavirus?

I have worked with people who smoked quite heavily and rarely if ever got a cold,  but when they stopped they got colds just like everyone else.  I would say that smoking with the chemicals and tar that they inhale may well disable viruses by destroying the fatty envelope that normally protects the virus core.  but smoking certainly does not protect you against Lung and throat cancer......

On another topic ( the world health organisation and their closeness to China ) 
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/trump-has-a-point-the-who-has-failed?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020200416%20%20SM&utm_content=LNCH%20%2020200416%20%20SM+CID_e5ca5896c927274cff812cdea386d6cb&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_term=Trump%20has%20a%20point%20%20the%20WHO%20has%20failed

For clarity, it is nicotine (not the act of smoking!) which appears to mitigate against a virus infection for the reasons you state and the example you give.

Nicotine has been used as as an insecticide since the 17th century (now banned by EU) and is found in potatoes, tomatoes (which are both related to the tobacco plant) and, of course, is also found in Deadly Nightshade! It has a history.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 16, 2020, 06:43:31 PM
I was a heavy smoker for years (stopped 20 years now) and all it has done for me is to leave me prone to bad lung infections. To that add I am overweight, require medication to control my blood pressure and am a 71-year-old male. All I need for the full set would be BAME ethnicity!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 16, 2020, 07:17:08 PM
For clarity, it is nicotine (not the act of smoking!) which appears to mitigate against a virus infection for the reasons you state and the example you give.

I am ordering 24 gross of nicotine patches - will be using 6 a day until this is over,  or do I need the nicotine gum to get it into my throat ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: VicW on April 17, 2020, 03:29:26 PM
The subject of face masks has cropped again prompted yesterday by the Mayor of London. If face masks are of any use why was the virus so prevalent in China where the population wear face masks as the norm to protect themselves against everyday pollution?

Vic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 17, 2020, 06:34:49 PM
The subject of face masks has cropped again prompted yesterday by the Mayor of London. If face masks are of any use why was the virus so prevalent in China where the population wear face masks as the norm to protect themselves against everyday pollution?

China has a population approximately 20 times that of the UK. The number of deaths in the UK is 3 times that in China, and still rising, if you believe any of the official numbers.

Infection rates in European countries where masks are now mandatory are falling significantly. There are studies that suggest that masks are at least as effective as social distancing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 17, 2020, 06:37:28 PM
[edit by Admin - removed quote to deleted post]

Matt Hancock was telling the select committee that 55,000 single-use full gowns were arriving today. That will last approximately 8 hours.

I don't know what the materials situation is like, but the government should now be using war time powers acts to force all UK based textile manufacturers to produce PPE.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 17, 2020, 07:06:38 PM
Ch 4 news now
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 17, 2020, 07:20:16 PM
Nobody really knows ( and may never know ) how many have died,  are still dying and are yet to die in China of the virus.  That is what happens when the government can mark their own homework....with no decent functioning media to question and hold government to account,  the mark of a democracy is the strength and freedom of its media....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 17, 2020, 08:25:24 PM
Nobody really knows ( and may never know ) how many have died,  are still dying and are yet to die in China of the virus.  That is what happens when the government can mark their own homework....with no decent functioning media to question and hold government to account,  the mark of a democracy is the strength and freedom of its media....

I hope you're not suggesting that our figures are accurate?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on April 17, 2020, 08:57:14 PM
Nobody really knows ( and may never know ) how many have died,  are still dying and are yet to die in China of the virus.  That is what happens when the government can mark their own homework....with no decent functioning media to question and hold government to account,  the mark of a democracy is the strength and freedom of its media....

I hope you're not suggesting that our figures are accurate?

Of course our figures are accurate.. to within +100%   8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on April 17, 2020, 09:49:14 PM
The subject of face masks has cropped again prompted yesterday by the Mayor of London. If face masks are of any use why was the virus so prevalent in China where the population wear face masks as the norm to protect themselves against everyday pollution?

China has a population approximately 20 times that of the UK. The number of deaths in the UK is 3 times that in China, and still rising, if you believe any of the official numbers.

Infection rates in European countries where masks are now mandatory are falling significantly. There are studies that suggest that masks are at least as effective as social distancing.

Sometimes an element of basic common sense needs to kick in. Masks won't provide much protection to the wearer but the crucial point is that they block the amount of virus that emanates from the wearer so they protect others.

I gather from the various briefings I've seen that one argument is that they confer a false sense of security and diminish the social distancing message - I get that but public information pitched at the right level could get round this - in short, wear masks so we can relax some of the restrictions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinS on April 18, 2020, 08:24:36 AM
Sometimes an element of basic common sense needs to kick in. Masks won't provide much protection to the wearer but the crucial point is that they block the amount of virus that emanates from the wearer so they protect others.

I gather from the various briefings I've seen that one argument is that they confer a false sense of security and diminish the social distancing message - I get that but public information pitched at the right level could get round this - in short, wear masks so we can relax some of the restrictions.

+1. Totally agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 18, 2020, 08:48:12 AM
We can't get enough masks for healthcare workers. Where will we get masks for shoppers and commuters?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 18, 2020, 09:15:44 AM
We can't get enough masks for healthcare workers. Where will we get masks for shoppers and commuters?

+1


Exactly,  there is a worldwide shortage of medical PPE at the moment,  we don't want a black market springing up -    Bloke opens his coat and says 'Pssst, wanna buy an N95 mask mate'.

Medical masks are meant to be short time, single use - even a small clinic or hospital will get through thousands a day, don't know if there is a way of disinfecting them for using same mask every day for a week or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 18, 2020, 09:21:23 AM
Of course our figures are accurate.. to within +100%   8)

Isn't it strange that the Chinese doctors who blew thee whistle on the SAR-CoV-2 virus early on ( in the face of covering up and denial by ruling communist party last December ) are now dead - apparently they succumbed to the virus,  yeah, I bet they did - anyone who opposes / embarrasses the CCP is in for a rough ride...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinS on April 18, 2020, 10:34:18 AM
We can't get enough masks for healthcare workers. Where will we get masks for shoppers and commuters?

+1


Exactly,  there is a worldwide shortage of medical PPE at the moment,  we don't want a black market springing up -    Bloke opens his coat and says 'Pssst, wanna buy an N95 mask mate'.

Medical masks are meant to be short time, single use - even a small clinic or hospital will get through thousands a day, don't know if there is a way of disinfecting them for using same mask every day for a week or so.

Sorry! Did someone mention "Medical masks"?  I must have missed that.  I thought we were talking about material type masks which will effectively stop YOU from spreading any infection that YOU may have already.  I have been using one for weeks now on the rare occasions that I need to go out.  I have two and I am careful how I take them off, wash them and my hands.  That must be helping surely.

Of course we should not all go out buying medical masks, they are to protect medical professionals from getting an infection from their patients, who I am pretty sure already have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 18, 2020, 10:38:32 AM
Sorry! Did someone mention "Medical masks"?  I must have missed that.  I thought we were talking about material type masks which will effectively stop YOU from spreading any infection that YOU may have already.  I have been using one for weeks now on the rare occasions that I need to go out.  I have two and I am careful how I take them off, wash them and my hands.  That must be helping surely.

Of course we should not all go out buying medical masks, they are to protect medical professionals from getting an infection from their patients, who I am pretty sure already have it.
A virologist on the BBC the other day said that only medical masks can stop the penetration of coughed or sneezed droplets. B&Q masks stop the passing of dust but not droplets of fluid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinS on April 18, 2020, 10:48:58 AM
Sorry! Did someone mention "Medical masks"?  I must have missed that.  I thought we were talking about material type masks which will effectively stop YOU from spreading any infection that YOU may have already.  I have been using one for weeks now on the rare occasions that I need to go out.  I have two and I am careful how I take them off, wash them and my hands.  That must be helping surely.

Of course we should not all go out buying medical masks, they are to protect medical professionals from getting an infection from their patients, who I am pretty sure already have it.
A virologist on the BBC the other day said that only medical masks can stop the penetration of coughed or sneezed droplets. B&Q masks stop the passing of dust but not droplets of fluid.

I wasn't talking about builders masks.  So if I cough or sneeze with a mask on, the droplets travel the same distance?  Obviously my physics classes weren't up to it when I went to school.  Or maybe I was brought up to use common sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 18, 2020, 10:57:52 AM
- in short, wear masks so we can relax some of the restrictions.
I am sorry if I'm taking this out of context but the last thing we want to do just now is relax restrictions and allow the rate of spread of the virus to increase again.

The problem is that the restrictions are too woolly and open to misinterpretation by those who want to flaunt them and also by the police who need to enforce them but  need to apply a bit of common sesnse in doing so.
Besides enforcing the wearing of masks imposes yet another restriction.
Again it's open to interpretation . When is a mask not a mask?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 18, 2020, 11:03:03 AM
Medical masks are effective. Non-medical masks are not. The WHO says that wearing masks should be reserved for health care workers. Until the WHO and or UK scientists say otherwise I will continue not to do so. And if they do change their minds I will just need to stay in as you cannot buy masks for love or money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on April 18, 2020, 11:10:01 AM
Sorry! Did someone mention "Medical masks"?  I must have missed that.  I thought we were talking about material type masks which will effectively stop YOU from spreading any infection that YOU may have already.  I have been using one for weeks now on the rare occasions that I need to go out.  I have two and I am careful how I take them off, wash them and my hands.  That must be helping surely.

Of course we should not all go out buying medical masks, they are to protect medical professionals from getting an infection from their patients, who I am pretty sure already have it.
A virologist on the BBC the other day said that only medical masks can stop the penetration of coughed or sneezed droplets. B&Q masks stop the passing of dust but not droplets of fluid.

Err:

The question of droplets etc is (deliberately?) confused.
What you do NOT want is a large intake of virus infected droplets : the best way to get a really bad dose of Covid-19. See medics dying as a result.

A small dose of virus infected droplets is unlikely to give you a bad infection as the immune system does not get so stressed and go into overdrive and effectively kill you.

So ANY method that reduces the virus load - even if it does not eliminate it - either by stopping the droplets spraying into the air or reducing uptake of those droplets - is a good thing.

I wear a face fitting mask - FP3 for fine dust, No it will not stop all droplets but it will stop larger ones.
Other than the filtration it is like a medical mask. It is hot, uncomfortable and does not work with facial hair.. 
So talk of the public wearing medical masks is alarmist and unlikely to happen even if they are available: they are too uncomfortable to wear for more than 20 minutes and leave deep indentations on your face where the rubber seal fits - and they stink of silicon/rubber.. 

And they were very expensive to buy £8 last October - now trebled.

(I bought mine for filtering airborne Oxaic Acid particles used to treat bees for parasitic varroa mites.)

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 18, 2020, 11:55:37 AM
Amazon are selling dust masks. You can get them delivered by the 2nd of June!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinS on April 18, 2020, 11:56:53 AM
- in short, wear masks so we can relax some of the restrictions.
I am sorry if I'm taking this out of context but the last thing we want to do just now is relax restrictions and allow the rate of spread of the virus to increase again.

The problem is that the restrictions are too woolly and open to misinterpretation by those who want to flaunt them and also by the police who need to enforce them but need to apply a bit of common sense in doing so.
Besides enforcing the wearing of masks imposes yet another restriction.
Again it's open to interpretation . When is a mask not a mask?

Good points Jim.  There are too many experts out there and too many selfish people.  It's about time people thought for themselves and as you say use common sense. Enforcement is seldom a good thing and shouldn't be needed.  Unfortunately for some individuals it needs to be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 18, 2020, 01:32:56 PM
Sorry! Did someone mention "Medical masks"?  I must have missed that.  I thought we were talking about material type masks which will effectively stop YOU from spreading any infection that YOU may have already.  I have been using one for weeks now on the rare occasions that I need to go out.  I have two and I am careful how I take them off, wash them and my hands.  That must be helping surely.

Of course we should not all go out buying medical masks, they are to protect medical professionals from getting an infection from their patients, who I am pretty sure already have it.
A virologist on the BBC the other day said that only medical masks can stop the penetration of coughed or sneezed droplets. B&Q masks stop the passing of dust but not droplets of fluid.

I wasn't talking about builders masks.  So if I cough or sneeze with a mask on, the droplets travel the same distance?  Obviously my physics classes weren't up to it when I went to school.  Or maybe I was brought up to use common sense.

Problem is if someone coughs and sneezes into a mask or has virus on outside of mask because of droplets from outside that have settled onto mask and then touches the mask,  the viruses are then on their fingers ( or gloves,  but oils on our skin more likely to disable virus fatty envelope than gloves are )... and having worn masks before for DIY and  in industry I know how uncomfortable and sweaty they can get - and you do keep pulling and moving them to try to get comfortable  - you then touch door handles and other stuff,  the virus can survive on surfaces for a long time and I think surface to hands to nose / lips / food is a major vector for spreading this virus...

Just as it is for seasonal flu and colds,  but those viruses can remain viable for only hours on surfaces,  the coronavirus envelope is much more robust and remains viable many days - or weeks in right conditions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinS on April 18, 2020, 02:25:24 PM
Problem is if someone coughs and sneezes into a mask or has virus on outside of mask because of droplets from outside that have settled onto mask and then touches the mask,  the viruses are then on their fingers ( or gloves,  but oils on our skin more likely to disable virus fatty envelope than gloves are )... and having worn masks before for DIY and  in industry I know how uncomfortable and sweaty they can get - and you do keep pulling and moving them to try to get comfortable  - you then touch door handles and other stuff,  the virus can survive on surfaces for a long time and I think surface to hands to nose / lips / food is a major vector for spreading this virus...
I have two and I am careful how I take them off, wash them and my hands.
I worked in the nuclear industry so no need for people to tell me how to safely remove protective clothing or how not to contaminate other surfaces.  Everything you say is true but people who know that, still don't wear masks.  I'm bemused that people are willing to spread infections that they may unknowingly have and can only put it down to selfishness.  Not wanting to bang on about it but surely it's all about common sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on April 18, 2020, 04:02:58 PM
I would happily wear a mask if someone can explain that it helps protect others and doesn’t increase the risk. But at present I just don’t see it:

Firstly, surgical or ad hoc masks don’t protect the wearer because they do not filter incoming air, and they leak around the edges.

Secondly, there does seem to be a growing view that a mask can restrict the range of a cough or a sneeze, so that is being proposed as a reason. But, if you’re coughing or sneezing you shouldn’t be out, the lockdown rules say you should be self-isolating (and wearing a mask then does seem like a good idea). Or you may have C-19 but be asymptomatic but in that case, by definition you’re not coughing or sneezing. You may be spreading virus particles in normal exhalations, but a mask won’t prevent that because it doesn’t filter exhalations in the same way that it doesn’t filter inhalations.

So the benefits of a simple mask for normal everyday wear seem dubious. Balance that against the possibilities of the mask tending to concentrate any virus particles that are around, plus the false sense of security that wearers might get, and  the logic seems firmly against the idea.

Willing to be convinced though?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on April 18, 2020, 04:09:34 PM
I can remove my mask using the straps only: no need to touch the mask body. Ditto replacement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: springswood on April 18, 2020, 05:27:35 PM
My favourite podcast for clear facts about, well, anything, More or Less did an item on this and couldn't come to a conclusion. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0894jhh (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0894jhh)

As I understand it the main argument for home made masks and the like is to reduce transmission to others. Even if you don't have any Covid symptoms the droplets you exhale or expel (and we're getting into the hay fever season) may contain the virus. This only makes a difference in situations where others may then pick up those droplets. So out on the moors with my dog I could sneeze on some heather and it's very unlikely someone else will touch it in three days or whatever it is. However in the supermarket, say, even a fairly imperfect mask could well reduce the amount of the virus each of us inevitably leaves for others to pick up. So that brings down the viral load generally and slows the spread of infection.

I think I've talked myself into using a mask in future. If only I could sew.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 18, 2020, 07:27:42 PM
there does seem to be a growing view that a mask can restrict the range of a cough or a sneeze, so that is being proposed as a reason. But, if you’re coughing or sneezing you shouldn’t be out, the lockdown rules say you should be self-isolating

Does that include all us hay-fever sufferers? That's 25% of the population.


I think I've talked myself into using a mask in future. If only I could sew.

Here you go

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on April 18, 2020, 09:32:32 PM
As one who believes that a small daily dose of bugs helps to keep the immune system in training I would reserve a face mask for circumstances, such as a rush hour tube train, when adherence to the social distancing requirements may be difficult and/or there's a lack of fresh air circulation. Some villages are getting neurotic that passing cyclists may contaminate their clean air https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-52323784 which, I feel, overlooks the possibility that sick people aren't likely to get on their bike for a serious bit of exercise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 18, 2020, 10:22:11 PM
My biggest fear is stuff coming through the door. Junk mail goes straight in the bin. Letters and packaged get opened and the envelopes and outer wrapping go straight in the bin, then the hands get washed. Stuff I have ordered gets stuck in a bag and left for a few days before using. Every time I come home I wipe the handrail with a Dettol wipe (we are four flights up) then I wipe my letterbox, door handle and bell. I never touch the handrail on the way down (my wife does but she wears a glove which she discards in the bin as soon as she gets outside). She uses another glove to come back up. She is in the "Shielded" category, and I worry myself silly that she will get sick. If I brought C-19 in and she was ill I could never forgive myself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: springswood on April 19, 2020, 08:28:44 AM
Here's a piece from The Times archive cataloguing the complacency that got us where we are.
http://archive.vn/ofnfS (http://archive.vn/ofnfS)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on April 19, 2020, 08:34:05 AM
there does seem to be a growing view that a mask can restrict the range of a cough or a sneeze, so that is being proposed as a reason. But, if you’re coughing or sneezing you shouldn’t be out, the lockdown rules say you should be self-isolating

Does that include all us hay-fever sufferers? That's 25% of the population.

Well, I was generalising inaccurately so I accept the rebuke. But you do raise an interesting thought: should anyone with a cough for another reason self-isolate just in case they are asymptomatic with C-19? I’m pretty sure the original position on that was “Yes, you should”, but the actual advice on the NHS website now is:

“Do not leave your home if you have ...:
... a new, continuous cough – this means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or 3 or more coughing episodes in 24 hours (if you usually have a cough, it may be worse than usual)”

So anyone with hay-fever (or any “normal” cough or sneeze) ought to be OK to go out, following current social distancing protocols. Should they use a mask just in case they are asymptomatic? That’s no different to anyone else, and the jury’s still out on that, there’s still no convincing argument that the benefits outweigh the risks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 19, 2020, 10:35:57 AM
If you haven't seen it there is a brilliant bit on The Andrew Marr Show today interviewing Professor Sarah Gilbert regarding their work on a vaccine. Clear, concise and easily understandable. Well worth a watch on iPlayer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: RichardA on April 19, 2020, 12:00:12 PM
There's talk my employer will give us some form of face protection and install screens between desks to protect us when lockdown is eased, seeing as having everyone back and maintaining 2m distance would be nigh on impossible. The information is all bit vague at the moment so we'll see what happens. In the meantime, I'll continue to enjoy the panoramic view from being relocted to the boardroom. :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 19, 2020, 01:03:56 PM
If you haven't seen it there is a brilliant bit on The Andrew Marr Show today interviewing Professor Sarah Gilbert regarding their work on a vaccine. Clear, concise and easily understandable. Well worth a watch on iPlayer.

Absolutely concur, very informative and well worth watching.

Here's the clip

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p089xqrl
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on April 19, 2020, 08:45:40 PM
On the subject of face masks, I believe that the Japanese are keen on them but the Covid-19 infection rate has taken a lurch upwards. However, if they are still packing people into the Tokyo metro trains then the normal face masks won't help much. One would need the protective gear visible in the first photo in this report https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52336388 .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 19, 2020, 09:04:56 PM
[Edit by Admin: moved link to Sunday Times article to next post to so that the original article and government's response are in the same post for clearer balance in this debate.]

No PPE delivery.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52343912
interesting to follow the Hugh Pym Tweets

and 100,00 tests per day in two weeks highly unlikely.
https://bdaily.co.uk/articles/2020/04/17/uk-government-deploys-medallias-crowdsourcing-platform-to-find-new-covid-19-testing-solutions-and-help-achieve-100000-tests-per-day

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-tests-how-many-daily-number-figure-chart-a9466971.html

Last edit added comments.

Thank you. Unfortunately it did not seem to invoke any further debate.
JimSh
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 20, 2020, 09:03:26 AM

Here's the controversial Daily Telegraph article re. the tardiness of the UK approach.

https://archive.is/20200418182037/https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-38-days-when-britain-sleepwalked-into-disaster-hq3b9tlgh

And the Government's response:

https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/coronavirus-yes-minister-scene-predicted-boris-johnson-e2-80-99s-reaction-to-pandemic/ar-BB115sdv

[Edit by Admin: moved link to original Sunday Times article from JimSh's previous post to here for clearer balance in the debate.]
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 21, 2020, 02:04:37 PM
For comparison with my post 1 week ago and Culzean's two weeks ago.
« Reply #388 on: April 14, 2020, 02:09:24 PM »
« Reply #363 on: April 12, 2020, 02:11:24 PM »
Week 15 ONS statistics here
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020



"The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in Week 15 (week ending 10 April 2020) increased from 16,387 in Week 14 (week ending 3 April 2020) to 18,516. This is 7,996 more deaths than the five-year average of 10,520 and is the highest weekly total since Week 1 2000 (more information in Measuring the data).
The number of death registrations involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) increased from 3,475 in Week 14 to 6,213 in Week 15. The number of deaths mentioning “Influenza and Pneumonia” on the death certificate decreased from 2,367 in Week 14 to 2,003 in Week 15. There were 2,333 deaths in Week 15 that mentioned both “Influenza and Pneumonia” and COVID-19 on the death certificate."

These figures give a more accurate picture of the extent of the spread of the virus since they include deaths outside hospitals though I suspect the number of deaths outside hospitals is still being under- reported.

Peter Hitchens' argument looking pretty unfounded now.

last edit  Added comment re Peter Hichens' argument
Last edit cropped attachment
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 22, 2020, 03:31:50 PM
According to the Financial Times there may have been more than twice as many deaths in the UK due to corona virus as the official figure released by the government.
The Government figures only count deaths in hospitals of people who have tested positive for corona virus and not those in care homes or in their own homes.

Deaths registered in the week ending April 10th were up 75% above normal despite the good weather.
The good news is that the figures indicate that the number of deaths might well now be past the peak.

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 23, 2020, 12:56:55 PM
Does that include all us hay-fever sufferers? That's 25% of the population.

Well, I was generalising inaccurately so I accept the rebuke. But you do raise an interesting thought: should anyone with a cough for another reason self-isolate just in case they are asymptomatic with C-19? I’m pretty sure the original position on that was “Yes, you should”, but the actual advice on the NHS website now is:

“Do not leave your home if you have ...:
... a new, continuous cough – this means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or 3 or more coughing episodes in 24 hours (if you usually have a cough, it may be worse than usual)”

So anyone with hay-fever (or any “normal” cough or sneeze) ought to be OK to go out, following current social distancing protocols. Should they use a mask just in case they are asymptomatic? That’s no different to anyone else, and the jury’s still out on that, there’s still no convincing argument that the benefits outweigh the risks.

Sorry, I missed your reply. It certainly wasn't meant as a rebuke, I was just being devil's advocate.

Whilst hay-fever sufferers should be OK to circulate, as you say, it doesn't stop the dead eyes you get in the supermarket if you show any sort of suspicious symptoms. I think we're the new lepers.

On a more serious note, if you did happen to suffer from hay-fever, and also had CoViD19 but were asymptomatic, you could certainly qualify as one of these 'super-spreaders'... I have some quite spectacular sneezing bouts at this time of year. Perhaps us hay-fever sufferers are indeed best avoided.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 23, 2020, 01:24:56 PM
A good article on MOT extension from RAC - you only get an extension if the MOT expired after 29th March,  and of course you have to keep your vehicle in roadworthy condition...

https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/car-maintenance/driving-without-an-mot-whats-the-risk/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CHUB_MEMSIN_A_W1_2020-04-22_170457_11941821&cid=eml-email-CHUB_MEMSIN_A_W1_2020-04-22_170457_11941821-Drive_NL_MEMB_1st_Feature
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 23, 2020, 01:34:47 PM
A good article on MOT extension from RAC - you only get an extension if the MOT expired after 29th March,  and of course you have to keep your vehicle in roadworthy condition...

I would just add that MOT dates are only being extended a few days before the old MOT expires, so if you MOT is due to expire soon and no extension is showing yet, don't fret.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on April 23, 2020, 07:35:31 PM
For clarity, it is nicotine (not the act of smoking!) which appears to mitigate against a virus infection for the reasons you state and the example you give.

I am ordering 24 gross of nicotine patches - will be using 6 a day until this is over,  or do I need the nicotine gum to get it into my throat ?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus

You heard it here first  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on April 23, 2020, 09:10:07 PM
According to the Financial Times there may have been more than twice as many deaths in the UK due to corona virus as the official figure released by the government.
This will become clearer from the ONS reports in due course.

It's interesting to look at the mortality rate in New Zealand where, I understand, there's been thorough tracing and testing. The latest WHO status report shows 16 deaths among the 1116 people who have tested positive, which is about 1.5%. Assuming this proportion and assuming 25,000 Covid-19 related deaths in the UK would suggest that 1.67 million people have been infected by the virus. If the survivors have acquired immunity then that's a useful step towards the herd immunity objective that the government originally talked about.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 23, 2020, 09:51:10 PM
It's interesting to look at the mortality rate in New Zealand where, I understand, there's been thorough tracing and testing. The latest WHO status report shows 16 deaths among the 1116 people who have tested positive, which is about 1.5%. Assuming this proportion and assuming 25,000 Covid-19 related deaths in the UK would suggest that 1.67 million people have been infected by the virus. If the survivors have acquired immunity then that's a useful step towards the herd immunity objective that the government originally talked about.

I have seen lots of reports estimating between 5% and 15% infection rate in the UK, but they can only be guesses without any proper mass testing. If it really is as low as 1.5%, we have a very long way to go to get to the 60%+ needed for herd immunity - I don't think there will be much public appetite for a death tally at the end of this standing at 40x what it is now.

There is another problem with natural aquired immunity, it tends to last a relatively short time, unlike immunity from modified adenovirus vaccines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 23, 2020, 11:27:44 PM
According to the Financial Times there may have been more than twice as many deaths in the UK due to corona virus as the official figure released by the government.
This will become clearer from the ONS reports in due course.

It's interesting to look at the mortality rate in New Zealand where, I understand, there's been thorough tracing and testing. The latest WHO status report shows 16 deaths among the 1116 people who have tested positive, which is about 1.5%. Assuming this proportion and assuming 25,000 Covid-19 related deaths in the UK would suggest that 1.67 million people have been infected by the virus. If the survivors have acquired immunity then that's a useful step towards the herd immunity objective that the government originally talked about.
Still a long way short.
It was assumed that for herd immunity to be effective about 80% of the population would have to acquire immunity.
Even if 1.7M had immunity which is not at all certain since it is not clear if having a mild infection confers immunity or how long acquired immunity lasts.
1.7 M /67M is only 2.5%
The only safe way to acquire herd immunity is through an effective vaccination programme.

On April 20, the World Health Organization reported that early data from serological tests suggest that only 2 to 3 percent of the global population have antibodies indicating that they have been infected with COVID-19.

New Zealand has done really well with regard to testing and tracing.
Unfortunately the same cannot be said for the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 24, 2020, 07:59:45 AM
There is another problem with natural aquired immunity, it tends to last a relatively short time, unlike immunity from modified adenovirus vaccines.

Seen comments by 'experts' saying this virus is capable of mutating quickly like seasonal influenza so any immunity may be short lived.

But others seem more hopeful.... saying it has shown no large mutations so far.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/16/opinion/coronavirus-mutations-vaccine-covid.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 24, 2020, 08:01:30 AM
For clarity, it is nicotine (not the act of smoking!) which appears to mitigate against a virus infection for the reasons you state and the example you give.

I am ordering 24 gross of nicotine patches - will be using 6 a day until this is over,  or do I need the nicotine gum to get it into my throat ?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus

You heard it here first  ;)

So my earlier idea of bulk buying nicotine patches and gum was not so crazy after all....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on April 24, 2020, 08:26:58 AM
Seen comments by 'experts' saying this virus is capable of mutating quickly so any immunity may be short lived.

The way science works is that lots of different scientists can have lots of different ideas and they gradually thrash out a consensus through dialogue. That’s ongoing with C-19, so quoting one view out of context and without identifying the source is not helpful.

Just to balance things up, try these:

“One aspect of Sars-CoV-2 is how it has evolved more slowly than some other viruses such as HIV or the flu. Just 40 differences have evolved so far between the most distantly related samples.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d34097f0-e2c3-41a7-b3c7-9c1eb0f9df92

“Given that the SARS-CoV-2 genome is almost twice as large as the seasonal flu genome, it seems as though the seasonal flu mutates roughly four times as fast as SARS-CoV-2. The fact that the seasonal flu mutates so quickly is precisely why it is able to evade our vaccines, so the significantly slower mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 gives us hope for the potential development of effective long-lasting vaccines against the virus.”
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutation-rate.html

You pays your money and you chooses your expert.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jazzaro on April 24, 2020, 10:25:09 AM

Seen comments by 'experts' saying this virus is capable of mutating quickly like seasonal influenza so any immunity may be short lived.

Yep, the virus will mutate in lots of variants, and not all of them will be covered by one single vaxin.
This is the bad news, the good news is that very probably only soft mutations will survive, because strong variants usually carry the infecteds to death or to the hospital, with much less opportunities of infect other peolpe. Soft variants, with no or soft damages, will survive better. This is the natural evolution of viruses such as Hiv, very strong at the first steps in the 80s and now much more softer than the "first release".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 24, 2020, 10:41:08 AM
According to Professor Sarah Gilbert, who is the lead on the current vaccine test, there are several mutations already, but the variations don't mean that the vaccine won't work. The modifications are not major like happens with flu.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p089xqrl (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p089xqrl)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 24, 2020, 11:14:37 AM
The link above with Prof. Gilbert is well worth watching.

The vector vaccine immunity will last longer than natural immunity because only a small part of the target virus RNA is inserted into the vector virus that is in the vaccine. Any mutations which occur throughout the rest of the target virus will not matter, the antibodies produced as a result of the vaccine will still recognise the mutated virus and provoke an immune response.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 24, 2020, 12:09:30 PM
I see Trump's come up with a cure, perhaps we won't need a vaccine

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/trump-coronavirus-treatment-disinfectant
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 24, 2020, 12:48:51 PM
Hope they try it out on him first. When they were giving out brains he was in the arrogance queue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 24, 2020, 03:06:49 PM
Seen comments by 'experts' saying this virus is capable of mutating quickly so any immunity may be short lived.

The way science works is that lots of different scientists can have lots of different ideas and they gradually thrash out a consensus through dialogue.

That shouldn't be the way science works either.
Scientists with opposing views should be collecting more data and checking their theories against the data and discussing which theory gives the best fit.
This process is made more difficult in this case because economics and politics are involved as well as science and most likely much of the data has been distorted or falsified for political reasons.
Also unscientific theories are given as much credence as scientific ones by some people. (See Trump as an extreme example}
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on April 25, 2020, 10:01:55 AM
An informative update on the Swedish approach to the virus https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52395866 .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 25, 2020, 11:01:40 AM
An informative update on the Swedish approach to the virus https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52395866 .

So Denmark and Norway bought in lockdown measures before Sweden and UK and have had far fewer deaths..... but maybe more economic damage ?  Also the Swedes are doing the social distancing themselves - we will only find out what worked and didn't later - wonder how many lawsuits will be filed by people blaming government for either deaths of family or because their business folded - watch this space.

All lawsuits will be forwarded to Chinese - good luck with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 25, 2020, 11:23:39 AM
A sobering article about effectiveness ( or otherwise ) of masks,  especially when Sadiq Khan wants people to wear masks so that he can continue to pack them into tube trains like sardines...

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/face-masks-should-there-be-a-cover-up-?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BOCH%20%2020200424%20%20GC&utm_content=BOCH%20%2020200424%20%20GC+CID_f15bd9bebdf5cbee4cbaf1d14be6dc97&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_term=Do%20face%20masks%20work%20A%20note%20on%20the%20evidence
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 25, 2020, 03:13:53 PM

This process is made more difficult in this case because economics and politics are involved as well as science and most likely much of the data has been distorted or falsified for political reasons.
Also unscientific theories are given as much credence as scientific ones by some people.

What are Cummings and Warner doing at SAGE meetings?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-dominic-cummings-on-secret-scientific-advisory-group-for-covid-19

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/coronavirus-whos-who-on-secret-scientific-group-advising-uk-government-sage
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 25, 2020, 05:43:55 PM
What are Cummings and Warner doing at SAGE meetings?

I see Stephen Powis refused to answer the question about the nature of Cummings' participation in the SAGE meetings at the daily briefing, twice... though I think the admission that there have been some "robust discussions" tells you all you need to know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on April 26, 2020, 06:46:30 PM
Near the end of this article https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/04/02/an-antibody-test-for-the-novel-coronavirus-will-soon-be-available it is stated:

"One of the most important elements of this analysis will be determining the rate of silent infection—with all the implications that brings for herd immunity. Comparing recent test data from the Netherlands and Iceland hints at the gap in current knowledge of just how much silent infection there may be. Both countries use genetic testing for the virus, but the Netherlands only tests those with severe symptoms of covid-19, whereas Iceland has been testing widely, even people without symptoms. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, the Icelandic approach has revealed far more infections in younger people than the Dutch one (see chart). Moreover, according to Kari Stefansson, who is leading the Icelandic project, 50% of those who have tested positive reported no symptoms."

Which gets me wondering how many people in the UK have already had the virus and the more who have had the virus then the lower the mortality rate in percentage terms although it doesn't change the total deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 26, 2020, 07:21:19 PM
At last. A post that doesn't just bash the government. There was a bit about the unknown infected on Andrew Marr this morning but the interviewee didn't rate the numbers particularly high. Iceland's figure would indicate otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 26, 2020, 09:14:13 PM
I've seen all sorts of speculation regarding infection rates, we need some mass antibody testing results. That fellow Sherlock Holmes knew what he was talking about,

“It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 27, 2020, 12:01:58 PM
Near the end of this article https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/04/02/an-antibody-test-for-the-novel-coronavirus-will-soon-be-available it is stated:

"One of the most important elements of this analysis will be determining the rate of silent infection—with all the implications that brings for herd immunity. Comparing recent test data from the Netherlands and Iceland hints at the gap in current knowledge of just how much silent infection there may be. Both countries use genetic testing for the virus, but the Netherlands only tests those with severe symptoms of covid-19, whereas Iceland has been testing widely, even people without symptoms. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, the Icelandic approach has revealed far more infections in younger people than the Dutch one (see chart). Moreover, according to Kari Stefansson, who is leading the Icelandic project, 50% of those who have tested positive reported no symptoms."

Which gets me wondering how many people in the UK have already had the virus and the more who have had the virus then the lower the mortality rate in percentage terms although it doesn't change the total deaths.

A good link explaining the difficulties of obtaining a reliable antibody test and the balance between sensitivity and specificity.
Care has to be taken to find an effective test. If too much faith is placed in unreliable tests it would be worse than no testing.
Unfortunately, as with testing vaccines, it all takes time.
The last part of the link refering to the Icelandic study seems to be pushing the idea of naturally acquired herd immunity but again this is an unproven concept.
How specific were the Icelandic tests?
Does a positive test imply immunity?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 27, 2020, 12:28:59 PM
Chile maybe making a big mistake with their Covid clear "passports", against WHO recommendations. 100,000 tests a day was based on 5 pillars, the last of which was antibody testing. The accuracy of those tests stopped them going ahead, making 100,000 tests a day an impossible target.
US are allowing tests on the manufurer's say so as long as they are marked" Not FDA approved".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on April 27, 2020, 01:32:22 PM
The last part of the link refering to the Icelandic study seems to be pushing the idea of naturally acquired herd immunity but again this is an unproven concept.

The problem with 'naturally acquired herd immunity' is that the vast majority of the population need to get the real virus, not die from it, and then become immune to it. What we are seeing is that a lot of people are dying from it and there is no evidence at all to suggest that recovered patients are in any way immune.

The only way herd immunity can work effectively is if a vaccination proven to create immunity is produced and the vast majority of the population then take it. The herd is immunised in order to protect those who can't be immunised, e.g. newborns or people with complex medical issues, usually related to their own immune system, which means they can't be immunised.

Here's a link that explains herd immunity from pre Covid-19 days...
https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/herd-immunity-how-does-it-work

And here's a link explaining why herd immunity to treat a pandemic is a non-starter...
https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic

Edited to add the second link.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 27, 2020, 01:52:12 PM
Chile maybe making a big mistake with their Covid clear "passports", against WHO recommendations. 100,000 tests a day was based on 5 pillars, the last of which was antibody testing.

Of course, I should have written "reliable mass antibody testing".

I'm not sure whether it exists or not, at present.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 27, 2020, 02:35:51 PM
As if things weren't bad enough.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52439005 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52439005)
This could stop schools from reopening anytime soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 27, 2020, 03:37:39 PM
Original warning.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWjoqSXWkAIutIz?format=png&name=small)
Looks like those that tested negative appeared to have recovered from the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 27, 2020, 08:16:50 PM
For anyone interested in how SARS-CoV- 2 devastates the body, it is actually the bodies reaction to it that does the damage, producing far too many antibodies and chemicals.. mainly cytokine..

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 27, 2020, 10:54:03 PM
Anyone watching Panorama on PPE just now?
Half hour programme.
Available on iplayer at the moment.
Watch it soon. I suspect it will not be there for the 11 months it claims just now.

Edit added Availability on iplayer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 28, 2020, 10:17:08 AM
Latest ONS update

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest

cf.Reply #457 on: April 21, 2020, 02:04:37 PM »
« Reply #388 on: April 14, 2020, 02:09:24 PM »
« Reply #363 on: April 12, 2020, 02:11:24 PM »
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on April 28, 2020, 12:21:53 PM
For anyone interested in how SARS-CoV- 2 devastates the body, it is actually the bodies reaction to it that does the damage, producing far too many antibodies and chemicals.. mainly cytokine..

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes

Thank you for posting what, I find, is a most informative and objective article.

The most chilling quote in that article is:

A clear picture is elusive, as the virus acts like no pathogen humanity has ever seen.

People need to understand that.


At the risk of being mocked again,  ;) it is interesting to see the significance that the ACE2* receptor plays in the development of COVID-19.

It is worth researching the effect nicotine has on ACE2. Your suggestion of using nicotine patches may not be such a silly idea. However, if you used them at the dosage you proposed you would be well dead from nicotine poisoning before the little critters got to you. (You could even think of using chewing tobacco or perhaps snuff rather than NRT gum - or just eat more potatoes  ;)).

I see from Sky News:

“[The Army] are being issued with an insect repellent that might offer a new layer of protection against COVID-19. The product, called Citriodiol**, is known to kill types of coronaviruses.

Vickes VapoRub (if you remember it?) is similarly eucalyptus based and works on the same principle.

Eucalyptus and nicotine have similar properties. Nicotine is highly addictive.

Anyone who wants our present “lockdown” restrictions lifted in these circumstances just does not understand the scale of the problem.

I am surprised that HMG have not pointed out that these current restrictions, from their own Imperial College London forecasts, have reduced UK deaths so far alone by 100,000 to 200,000 to date - together with the associated complete breakdown in civil order that would have caused. This is on the scale of a not so small nuclear war.

Remember: A clear picture is elusive, as the virus acts like no pathogen humanity has ever seen.

No one should be distracted by the “chattering classes” or the theories of scientists but keep an open mind.

We just don’t know. No body knows. And we will not know for some years yet. It ain't going away.



 
*angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2)

** Citriodiol is produced from steam distilled Eucalyptus citriodora oil ….. converting the citronellal content into p-menthane-3,8-diol (PMD).

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 28, 2020, 12:45:32 PM
There is strong evidence that genes are 50% responsible for the severity of the infection.
What pees me off is the journos constantly asking when will lockdown end. The government is not going to say. They are watching Spain and Italy to see the results of their easing of restrictions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 28, 2020, 01:01:05 PM
There is strong evidence that genes are 50% responsible for the severity of the infection.
What pees me off is the journos constantly asking when will lockdown end. The government is not going to say. They are watching Spain and Italy to see the results of their easing of restrictions.

The journalists and opposition parties can stir the mud because they are not the ones making the very hard decisions - they can basically spout all kinds of rubbish.  I know the UK government and their experts were wary of imposing a lock-down too soon because of what is happening now,  people are getting restless and more and more people will flout the rules. 

What is not published is that before the UK introduced lockdown we were sending PPE supplies to Spain and Italy because they had shortages - and because the whole word and its granny is now after PPE there is a big shortage,  and no doubt the Chinese who were buying up PPE from around the world as early as last December ( before they thought it was a good idea to tell the rest of the planet what was gonna hit them ) - will either be sending our own PPE back to us 'as a gesture of goodwill' ( to try to deflect the hate coming their way ) or they may be selling it to highest bidder.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: d2d4j on April 28, 2020, 01:15:28 PM
Hi

Sorry I have nothing to add but an observation

Did anyone see boris Johnson speech Monday morning

If you did, did you also notice the people filming etc... where were their social distancing. There were none and bunched up together, which was televised at the same time as boris stating no relaxing of rules

Many thanks

John
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 28, 2020, 01:25:30 PM
Hi

Sorry I have nothing to add but an observation

Did anyone see boris Johnson speech Monday morning

If you did, did you also notice the people filming etc... where were their social distancing. There were none and bunched up together, which was televised at the same time as boris stating no relaxing of rules

Many thanks

John

I think pictures of that appeared on sites and papers.

Jezza Corbyn also reported to have a bad cough but also not obeying the rules in parliament etc.   

Someone suggested Jezza was practicing his cough to go on 'Who wants to be a millionaire' LOL.

If Kim of North Korea really has kicked the bucket ( as rumours abound ) Jezza would be a shoo-in for his job, ( although maybe too left wing ) but if his cough continues he will be banned from traveling there to take the job.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 28, 2020, 01:46:08 PM
Anyone watching Panorama on PPE just now?
Half hour programme.
Available on iplayer at the moment.
Watch it soon. I suspect it will not be there for the 11 months it claims just now.

Edit added Availability on iplayer.

In case anyone missed this post, the programme is here

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000hr3y/panorama-has-the-government-failed-the-nhs

Watch it... then tell me that I'm being mean to the Government.

A friend of mine keeps insisting that all countries are experiencing the same shortages of PPE. It woud be interesting to find any data regarding deaths of healthcare workers in other developed countries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 28, 2020, 02:09:06 PM
Anyone watching Panorama on PPE just now?
Half hour programme.
Available on iplayer at the moment.
Watch it soon. I suspect it will not be there for the 11 months it claims just now.

Edit added Availability on iplayer.

In case anyone missed this post, the programme is here

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000hr3y/panorama-has-the-government-failed-the-nhs

Watch it... then tell me that I'm being mean to the Government.

A friend of mine keeps insisting that all countries are experiencing the same shortages of PPE. It woud be interesting to find any data regarding deaths of healthcare workers in other developed countries.

I think the death rate amongst healthcare workers was quite high in Italy and Spain where again the PPE was in short supply. I seem to remember pictures of improvised PPE in these countries too but what I find galling is that,whereas the virus cropped up suddenly and unexpectedly in Italy, the UK government had time to prepare for the impending spread of the virus but chose  not to prepare and then spurned European procurement offers and also offers of help from within the UK ( I'm thinking of that Bolton Textile manufacturer  in the Panorama programme who was ignored by UK government and ended up selling exclusively to USA)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BIGFELLAH on April 28, 2020, 02:10:06 PM
There is strong evidence that genes are 50% responsible for the severity of the infection.
What pees me off is the journos constantly asking when will lockdown end. The government is not going to say. They are watching Spain and Italy to see the results of their easing of restrictions.

The journalists and opposition parties can stir the mud because they are not the ones making the very hard decisions - they can basically spout all kinds of rubbish.  I know the UK government and their experts were wary of imposing a lock-down too soon because of what is happening now,  people are getting restless and more and more people will flout the rules. 

What is not published is that before the UK introduced lockdown we were sending PPE supplies to Spain and Italy because they had shortages - and because the whole word and its granny is now after PPE there is a big shortage,  and no doubt the Chinese who were buying up PPE from around the world as early as last December ( before they thought it was a good idea to tell the rest of the planet what was gonna hit them ) - will either be sending our own PPE back to us 'as a gesture of goodwill' ( to try to deflect the hate coming their way ) or they may be selling it to highest bidder.
+1
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BIGFELLAH on April 28, 2020, 02:15:53 PM
Hi

Sorry I have nothing to add but an observation

Did anyone see boris Johnson speech Monday morning

If you did, did you also notice the people filming etc... where were their social distancing. There were none and bunched up together, which was televised at the same time as boris stating no relaxing of rules

Many thanks

John

I think pictures of that appeared on sites and papers.

Jezza Corbyn also reported to have a bad cough but also not obeying the rules in parliament etc.   

Someone suggested Jezza was practicing his cough to go on 'Who wants to be a millionaire' LOL.

If Kim of North Korea really has kicked the bucket ( as rumours abound ) Jezza would be a shoo-in for his job, ( although maybe too left wing ) but if his cough continues he will be banned from traveling there to take the job.

I am fairly sure that offers to pay his fare would abound.
 He would have problems "BANNING THE BOMB" though when He got there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 28, 2020, 02:36:18 PM
but chose  not to prepare and then spurned European procurement offers and also offers of help from within the UK ( I'm thinking of that Bolton Textile manufacturer  in the Panorama programme who was ignored by UK government and ended up selling exclusively to USA)

I have read from many sources that the EU procurement program has so far not supplied anyone with anything--- they just abandoned the 'Community' bit and left it to individual members to sort it out themselves - bit like they did with the migrants from Africa across the med not too long ago.   Compared to the EU HS2 is great value..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 28, 2020, 03:25:21 PM
[Edit by Admin: Removed reference to deleted post]

Looks like Swedens plan not to have a lockdown like other countries may have backfired.

'Was lockdown necessary to avoid a rising Covid-19 death toll? All eyes have been on Sweden, which deliberately did not follow the rest of Europe’s lockdown measures, and opted for a ‘herd immunity’ strategy instead, which has involved shielding the elderly and vulnerable and practising social distancing while keeping restaurants, pubs and gyms open, with the public largely able to go about their business as usual. But new analysis from Buzzfeed shows that while day-to-day life has remained largely unchanged, average weekly death tolls have not. In the three weeks to 19 April, Sweden experienced a 34.5 per cent rise in fatalities compared with previous years, while its neighbour Denmark – which implemented an early and strict lockdown – saw an increase of 6.5 per cent. Even accounting for differences in population size, early evidence from the Swedish Covid-19 model suggests that maintaining liberty has come with a major cost.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on April 28, 2020, 08:04:37 PM
Looks like Germany eased the lockdown too soon and infections have started to rise again - so maybe UK is correct in its approach...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-ready-to-tighten-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-climb-again-jgbsl5xp6
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Basil on April 29, 2020, 09:11:28 AM
I think the UK is correct in it's approach to continue with the lockdown but we were late in implementing the lockdown so we need to get the numbers down before we can think of lifting any restrictions.

All countries are in the same situation, under pressure to ease restrictions for economic reasons but numbers will rise until a vaccine is available.



 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on April 29, 2020, 10:39:53 AM
Looks like Swedens plan not to have a lockdown like other countries may have backfired.
'In the three weeks to 19 April, Sweden experienced a 34.5 per cent rise in fatalities compared with previous years, while its neighbour Denmark – which implemented an early and strict lockdown – saw an increase of 6.5 per cent. Even accounting for differences in population size, early evidence from the Swedish Covid-19 model suggests that maintaining liberty has come with a major cost.'
A 34.5% increase is modest compared to the UK, without having the massive hit to the economy caused by the lockdown.

What people think is the best approach depends on whether their objective is to eradicate the virus (which appears feasible in those countries which were quick to act) or figure out how to live with it while waiting for the researchers to develop the vaccines and treatments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 29, 2020, 11:11:35 AM
Looks like Swedens plan not to have a lockdown like other countries may have backfired.
'In the three weeks to 19 April, Sweden experienced a 34.5 per cent rise in fatalities compared with previous years, while its neighbour Denmark – which implemented an early and strict lockdown – saw an increase of 6.5 per cent. Even accounting for differences in population size, early evidence from the Swedish Covid-19 model suggests that maintaining liberty has come with a major cost.'


I have my doubts about the validity of these sorts of comparisons.

Although Sweden's figures already look bad against Denmark, you also have to consider that the population density in Denmark is more than six times that of Sweden.

The often quoted paradox of the high death figures from Belgium. with their relatively early lockdown, must also be considered alongside the fact that Belgium has the highest population density of any country in Europe, over 16 times that of Sweden.

It seems obvious to me that a higher population density has got to make it more difficult to control the spread of this disease. The situation in Sweden is actually being masked by the low population density, possibly also the topography, and is even worse than it appears.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 29, 2020, 11:19:10 AM
Population density is a huge factor. That's why London was hit so hard. Glasgow worst in Scotland.
Also a huge factor in New Zealand's success.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on April 29, 2020, 11:33:40 AM
Completely agree about population density. Whilst there are valid criticisms to make of our government's approach it is simplistic to say "why can't we be more like New Zealand."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on April 29, 2020, 12:05:42 PM
A 34.5% increase is modest compared to the UK, without having the massive hit to the economy caused by the lockdown.

What people think is the best approach depends on whether their objective is to eradicate the virus (which appears feasible in those countries which were quick to act) or figure out how to live with it while waiting for the researchers to develop the vaccines and treatments.
Hmm. Seems to me like human lives must factor into this equation somewhere too, in terms of the best approach.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 29, 2020, 12:10:08 PM
Whilst there are valid criticisms to make of our government's approach it is simplistic to say "why can't we be more like New Zealand."

Absolutely.

However, I think it is much fairer to say "why can't we be more like South Korea", which has double the population density of the UK, 80% of the population, and has had under 250 deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 29, 2020, 12:19:44 PM
There are so many other factors to consider that comparison between countries is almost pointless.
Re Sweden The population is very unevenly spread Stockholm is a hotspot partly due to population density but also partly attributal to a big music festival in early March.This festival was however earlier than the Cheltenham festival, Liverpool Athletico Madrid football and the Six Nations Rugby. The Swedes were also adopting working from home even before lockdown was imposed in other European countries and were very compliant with social distancing measures.
 
The UK gave up on testing and contact tracing when there were still very few deaths. New Zealand kept on top of it as have some African countries although it must be a lot easier to keep track of people flying in to New Zealand than UK.
South Korea must have learned a lot from the SARS outbreak. Testing and tracing was paramount.
Each country has to make its own decisions based on balancing the economy, the welfare of its people and keeping the virus in check until a safe vaccine can be delivered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 29, 2020, 12:32:51 PM
The two extremes.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-usa-south-korea-testing-trump-covid-19-cure-vaccine-a9411796.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on April 29, 2020, 12:46:25 PM
South Korea was very badly affected by SARs and were ready for the next virus. We, along with most of the rest of the world, chose to ignore the lesson. US seems to be ignoring everything that is happening around them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 29, 2020, 02:11:57 PM
South Korea was very badly affected by SARs and were ready for the next virus. We, along with most of the rest of the world, chose to ignore the lesson.

We certainly did.

The risk of a SARS/MERS type coronavirus was one of the main findings to come from the report into the Cygnus exercise in 2016. As recently as July last year, a UK biological security strategy was published addressing exactly this threat. The findings were again ignored.

This timeline is worth a read

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/11/a-national-scandal-a-timeline-of-the-uk-governments-woeful-response-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 29, 2020, 02:30:09 PM
[
This timeline is worth a read

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/11/a-national-scandal-a-timeline-of-the-uk-governments-woeful-response-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/

That brings everything together beautifully.
Must be due some updates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on April 29, 2020, 04:12:16 PM
At the risk of Government bashing again...

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/apr/29/government-rushes-out-request-for-experts-bolster-sage-panel
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 29, 2020, 05:57:40 PM
At the risk of Government bashing again...

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/apr/29/government-rushes-out-request-for-experts-bolster-sage-panel
They've also got to recruit and train 18,000 contact tracers and develop a tracking app. and persuade 60% of the population to download it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on April 30, 2020, 03:37:39 PM

They've also got to recruit and train 18,000 contact tracers and develop a tracking app. and persuade 60% of the population to download it.

Don't tell them (your name) Pike!

"At the government press conference on Tuesday Matt Hancock, the health secretary, was asked by the New Scientist’s Adam Vaughan how many contact tracers the government has already recruited. There are supposed to be 18,000 in place by the middle of next month. Hancock did not know, but he said he would try to get an answer.
Now Vaughan has been told the Department for Health and Social Care won’t release that information. As he writes, “a spokesperson [for the department] confirmed that recruitment had begun and said work was under way to ensure a rapid increase in tracers, but would not say how many there are now.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on April 30, 2020, 05:51:59 PM

They've also got to recruit and train 18,000 contact tracers and develop a tracking app. and persuade 60% of the population to download it.

Don't tell them (your name) Pike!

"At the government press conference on Tuesday Matt Hancock, the health secretary, was asked by the New Scientist’s Adam Vaughan how many contact tracers the government has already recruited. There are supposed to be 18,000 in place by the middle of next month. Hancock did not know, but he said he would try to get an answer.
Now Vaughan has been told the Department for Health and Social Care won’t release that information. As he writes, “a spokesperson [for the department] confirmed that recruitment had begun and said work was under way to ensure a rapid increase in tracers, but would not say how many there are now.”

In other words "we currently have 50 so hiring 500   will bring a rapid increase in numbers"...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 01, 2020, 03:30:45 PM
Gist of this article is that despite other underlying illnesses,  one of the main risk factors for Covid-19 deaths is being an overweight male... that's equality for you.   https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/197216/being-male-overweight-lead-more-serious/


An article in our local paper today printed a remark from a WHO official which really was a backhanded compliment for our NHS,  it basically said ' because the NHS is so good at keeping chronically ill and frail patients alive that the WHO expects the death toll from Covid-19 in UK to be higher than other countries'....

https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/voices/opinions/peter-rhodes/2020/05/01/peter-rhodes-on-small-bubbles-bursting-a-pointless-comparison-and-getting-the-nhs-we-need/


quote from link...


'But there could be something in the theory, voiced by a World Health Organisation official this week, that the high death rate in Britain may in part be a tribute to the NHS which has been stunningly successful in keeping frail people alive'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 01, 2020, 09:36:38 PM
An article in our local paper today printed a remark from a WHO official which really was a backhanded compliment for our NHS,  it basically said ' because the NHS is so good at keeping chronically ill and frail patients alive that the WHO expects the death toll from Covid-19 in UK to be higher than other countries'....
I'm sure that there's some truth in that statement. I recall a statistic being produced a few weeks ago which revealed that the average person who died after testing positive for Covid-19 also had 2.9 other health conditions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 01, 2020, 11:17:43 PM
An article in our local paper today printed a remark from a WHO official which really was a backhanded compliment for our NHS,  it basically said ' because the NHS is so good at keeping chronically ill and frail patients alive that the WHO expects the death toll from Covid-19 in UK to be higher than other countries'....
I'm sure that there's some truth in that statement. I recall a statistic being produced a few weeks ago which revealed that the average person who died after testing positive for Covid-19 also had 2.9 other health conditions.

If life expectancy is any measure, we are one of the worst in western Europe, and some way behind many SE Asian countries. I know you can still have more poorly people kept alive, but it must have some bearing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 02, 2020, 09:58:37 AM

interesting video,  seems this Cov-2 version of SARS is much better at binding with ACE-2 receptors than Cov-1 and better at entering cells and also better at evading the immune system,  add to that people are infectious before symptoms show ( and some never have symptoms despite having a high viral load )...

In fact if toy wanted to make a virus in a laboratory that would  spread fast - this is the model you would choose - just sayin'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BIGFELLAH on May 03, 2020, 11:18:58 AM

interesting video,  seems this Cov-2 version of SARS is much better at binding with ACE-2 receptors than Cov-1 and better at entering cells and also better at evading the immune system,  add to that people are infectious before symptoms show ( and some never have symptoms despite having a high viral load )...

In fact if toy wanted to make a virus in a laboratory that would  spread fast - this is the model you would choose - just sayin'

I would like to mention I have a granddaughter  who has just qualified, and is now working at The Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow working 12 hour shifts.
I am very proud of her and all her other staff members.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 03, 2020, 11:35:46 AM
I would like to mention I have a granddaughter  who has just qualified, and is now working at The Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow working 12 hour shifts.
I am very proud of her and all her other staff members.

You should be very proud, they are doing a magnificent job under some very difficult circumstances. If one thing comes out of all this, I hope that we don't continue to undervalue these individuals, and the contribution they make.

I have a niece that's a nurse currently working in a CoViD ward, and other half's niece is a nursing assistant in ICU. Also have a nephew that's still travelling all over mantaining and repairing hospital lifts, though I think that's a bit more lucrative than some of the medical professions. What a crazy world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 04, 2020, 11:19:01 AM
Don't tell them again Pike.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/rapid-coronavirus-test-site-data-was-not-shared-with-scottish-and-welsh-ministers
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 04, 2020, 11:40:25 AM
Watched Sir David King talking on this morning's Victoria Derbyshire programme about SAGE and it was a most enlightening listen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 04, 2020, 01:06:38 PM
Watched Sir David King talking on this morning's Victoria Derbyshire programme about SAGE and it was a most enlightening listen.
Didn't see it. Was this the gist of it?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-sage-david-king-dominic-cummings-science-a9497236.html

Seems to me there's a distinct lack of transparency about the government's handling of everything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 04, 2020, 02:48:48 PM
Exactly. The Shadow Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies is supposed to be posting on YouTube starting today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on May 04, 2020, 03:29:01 PM
Watched Sir David King talking on this morning's Victoria Derbyshire programme about SAGE and it was a most enlightening listen.
Didn't see it. Was this the gist of it?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-sage-david-king-dominic-cummings-science-a9497236.html

Seems to me there's a distinct lack of transparency about the government's handling of everything.

I think there is something even less transparent.

Which government are we talking about. We in England are presented with the NHS as if it is a UK wide thing and that Matt Hancock is Secretary of State for Health for the UK.

The Secretary of State for Health has overall responsibility for the business and policies of the department, which includes:

oversight of all NHS delivery and performance

This is ambiguous in that the NHS referred to is only NHS in England, which in England is called NHS, and thus his responsibilities are only for England.

In Scotland there is NHS Scotland which is the responsibility of the Cabinet Secretary for Health and Sport in the Scottish government and called NHS Scotland.

These are both devolved powers so that is reasonable.

There is no Chief Medical Officer for UK but for each of the four devolved nations.

The Chief Medical Officer for England is also the Chief Medical Adviser to the UK government.

So in England we are apparently being misled into thinking we are seeing a UK government action but in Scotland, I presume, you are seeing a Scottish government action.

I think there are many other areas that those in England believe are a UK wide activity but are only applicable to England - education being one that springs to mind and perhaps policing.

Tell me if I am wrong.

For example, in Scotland, do you get BBC TV News based out of London or BBC Scotland TV News based out of  (I guess) Edinburgh? Are they the same?



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 04, 2020, 03:45:19 PM
Policing is a devolved department as well. Not so surprising considering that the Scottish legal system is a separate entity (Scots law).
BBC News in Scotland is BBC England news. We have Reporting Scotland which comes after the six o'clock news, at the same time everyone gets their regional news. We have BBC Scotland, a recently added channel, which starts at 19:00. There is a Scottish News at nine, but I never bother as it is rather amateurish. I prefer BBC Outside Source.

Scotland has a Daily update at lunchtime, where Nicola gives her version of the Downing Street update. The questions are answered without towing the propaganda line but the programme only gets the coverage that the BBC decides, so sometimes it is little more than a summary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 04, 2020, 05:01:04 PM
Scotland has a Daily update at lunchtime, where Nicola gives her version of the Downing Street update. The questions are answered without towing the propaganda line but the programme only gets the coverage that the BBC decides, so sometimes it is little more than a summary.

I switch over to BBC Scotland to watch the Scotland lunchtime briefing, they generally cut it off half way through on BBC News.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 04, 2020, 06:14:00 PM
Scotland has a Daily update at lunchtime, where Nicola gives her version of the Downing Street update. The questions are answered without towing the propaganda line but the programme only gets the coverage that the BBC decides, so sometimes it is little more than a summary.

I switch over to BBC Scotland to watch the Scotland briefing, they generally cut it off half way through on BBC News.
I didn't know that you would be able to receive BBC Scotland in England.
I always find the Scottish briefings more straightforward than the UK ones. The pandemic is treated as a medical matter rather than a political one, there is none of the obfuscation of Johnson and his minions and there is an honest attempt to answer questions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 04, 2020, 06:27:04 PM
I didn't know that you would be able to receive BBC Scotland in England.

In the rest of UK, it's available on Freesat, Sky and Virgin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 04, 2020, 07:06:08 PM
The "BBC Scotland" channel that you receive during the day is just BBC2 Scotland, which is mainly the same as BBC England. Only some programmes change (like Beechgrove Garden!). The dedicated "BBC Scotland" only broadcasts from 19:00.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 04, 2020, 08:41:43 PM
I didn't know that you would be able to receive BBC Scotland in England.

In the rest of UK, it's available on Freesat, Sky and Virgin.

Anybody else south of the border watch the Scottish briefings ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 04, 2020, 09:46:36 PM
Here is today's (4th of May) First Minister's update.


If you want to see a politician straight-talking, give it a look.
If it is too long-winded for you skip to 19:49 were she starts to answer the journalists' questions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 05, 2020, 11:23:10 AM
Tuesday again.
ONS statistics.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending24april2020

Cf. Previous Tuesdays
Number of deaths above average probably the most reliable statistic to follow since these excess deaths are real directly comparable numbers, they don't depend on test levels or accuracy or on methods or accuracy of registering C19 deaths.

From this it would appear that the number of deaths is declining but still way above average.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 05, 2020, 11:27:13 AM
Well done Boris !

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/05/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-rises-above-32000-to-highest-in-europe

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/04/uk-behind-most-european-states-in-tackling-coronavirus-says-agency
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 05, 2020, 11:55:24 AM
The "BBC Scotland" channel that you receive during the day is just BBC2 Scotland, which is mainly the same as BBC England. Only some programmes change (like Beechgrove Garden!). The dedicated "BBC Scotland" only broadcasts from 19:00.

But you do get to see the full Scotland briefing on there at 12.30PM.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 05, 2020, 02:47:42 PM
You are correct. Freeview Channel 9 gives the full Nicola. I have set my recorder (Digital not VHS) to record it every day. BBC Scotland HD Channel 108 shows nothing before 19:00.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 05, 2020, 03:07:09 PM
Too little too late?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-lockdown-uk-patrick-vallance-news-update-a9499196.html

"Sir Patrick also said the evidence suggested many UK cases came from from Europe, rather than China, where the disease was first identified."

https://www.skysports.com/football/liverpool-vs-a-madrid/report/421732
https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/events-tickets/the-festival/
https://www.stereophonics.com/uk-tour-2020/
https://jomec.co.uk/thecardiffian/2020/03/13/stereophonics-gigs-to-go-ahead-despite-others-being-called-off/

Latest edits added links
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 05, 2020, 04:04:36 PM
BBC Scotland HD Channel 108 shows nothing before 19:00.

Freeview 108 is broadcast part time, like BBC Four HD down here.


If anyone is interested, BBC Scotland HD also available in

Scotland - Sky 115, Freesat 106 & Virgin Media 108

Rest of UK - Sky 457, Freesat 108 & Virgin Media 162
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 05, 2020, 07:44:08 PM
Lords allowances cut,  about time too - the Libdums opposed the cuts...

https://order-order.com/2020/05/05/lords-allowance-slashed-half-will-contribute-claim/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 06, 2020, 12:59:09 PM
Too little too late?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-lockdown-uk-patrick-vallance-news-update-a9499196.html


Too much too soon?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-measures-lift-announcement-boris-johnson-news-a9501441.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 06, 2020, 02:12:31 PM
Germany seem to be going the whole hog. Even plans for pubs and restaurants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 06, 2020, 02:33:30 PM
Germany seem to be going the whole hog. Even plans for pubs and restaurants.
Germany seems to be in a more favourable  situation than the UK.
Perhaps because Merkel is a scientist?

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/18/coronavirus-europe-germanys-covid-19-death-rate-low-compared-countries-12575020/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 06, 2020, 03:12:42 PM
Perhaps because Merkel is a scientist?
I don't think Merkel has had a great deal to do with it. It seems that the 16 regions are pretty much autonomous in their control of the lockdown.
I think the death rate in the UK is a sad reflection on the health of the British all around. Despite our brilliant NHS, the country has always been the sick man of Europe with mass obesity, high historical rates of smoking and other morbidities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 06, 2020, 03:57:34 PM
Perhaps because Merkel is a scientist?
I don't think Merkel has had a great deal to do with it. It seems that the 16 regions are pretty much autonomous in their control of the lockdown.
Somebody has to coordinate it.


I think the death rate in the UK is a sad reflection on the health of the British all around. Despite our brilliant NHS, the country has always been the sick man of Europe with mass obesity, high historical rates of smoking and other morbidities.

There's a lot of fat, cigarette-smoking Germans too.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 06, 2020, 07:46:33 PM
Germany seems to be in a more favourable  situation than the UK.

I think the death rate in the UK is a sad reflection on the health of the British all around. Despite our brilliant NHS, the country has always been the sick man of Europe with mass obesity, high historical rates of smoking and other morbidities.

There's a lot of fat, cigarette-smoking Germans too.

Per capita, the Germans also spend 50% more on public health than we do. Perhaps that has something to do with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 06, 2020, 08:37:03 PM
Germany seems to be in a more favourable  situation than the UK.

I think the death rate in the UK is a sad reflection on the health of the British all around. Despite our brilliant NHS, the country has always been the sick man of Europe with mass obesity, high historical rates of smoking and other morbidities.

There's a lot of fat, cigarette-smoking Germans too.

Per capita, the Germans also spend 50% more on public health than we do. Perhaps that has something to do with it.

I think the biggest factor was the early intervention with testing, tracking and tracing.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/uk-community-testing-capacity-jenny-harries_uk_5eb15685c5b60a9277820cff

Here's the restrictions the Germans intend to lift.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/how-germany-plans-to-start-opening-up-starting-new-week.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 06, 2020, 08:52:40 PM
Germany has had far fewer deaths as a percentage of those infected. That had nothing to do with testing or tracking. That comes down to the background health of the patient and the hospital treatment they receive. Maybe they were admitted to ICU sooner or were put on Oxygen sooner, or perhaps they were just more resilient.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 06, 2020, 09:39:29 PM
Maybe the numbers of critical care beds in Germany also played a part - 29.2 per 100,000 to be precise, contrast that with 6.6 per 100,000 in the UK. Perhaps the Germans have been able to treat more older folk with all these facilities, instead of leaving them to pile up in care homes.

Ultimately though, testing, tracing and isolation is the road out. Until that is in place, it's crazy to start talking about relaxing the lockdown while we are still confirming thousands of new cases per day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 06, 2020, 11:13:25 PM
Germany has had far fewer deaths as a percentage of those infected. That had nothing to do with testing or tracking. That comes down to the background health of the patient and the hospital treatment they receive. Maybe they were admitted to ICU sooner or were put on Oxygen sooner, or perhaps they were just more resilient.

Or perhaps the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases is lower because they did more testing and therefore found more positive results.
In the UK there may have been many who have had the virus but have not been tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 07, 2020, 07:05:04 AM
O' wad some Power the giftie gie us to see oorsels as ithers see us.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/06/complacent-uk-draws-global-criticism-for-covid-19-response-boris-johnson
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: springswood on May 07, 2020, 07:52:33 AM
I'm afraid the BBC news website is losing credibility with me. When our headline figure for deaths passed that for Italy - no headlines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 07, 2020, 08:26:27 AM
In the UK there may have been many who have had the virus but have not been tested.
I read a recent report somewhere which, in a discussion about herd immunity stated "no more than 5 million in UK have been infected so far". Maybe it's only 4 million or 3 million but it's still a lot of people who who have had few or no symptoms. Data from other countries with more thorough testing suggest a mortality rate in the order of 1%. Perhaps it will be higher in UK if there's a bigger proportion of the population with their numerous health problems waiting for the virus to tip the balance. However, the mortality rate among those who are otherwise healthy might be in the range of ten per million which, to me, is a tolerable risk when compared with the other risks associated with getting on with life.

Boris has promised a further big ramp-up in the testing but where's the large-scale antibody test which will reveal who has got some immunity to the virus, albeit for an uncertain period?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 07, 2020, 09:13:22 AM
Much talk of the 'Blitz spirit' in connection with this virus ... how insulting that must be to anyone who does remember WW2 !   I saw a poster weeks ago, 'in the last century the people had to fight two world wars,  you are being asked to sit on a sofa - you can do it'   

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-baking-and-watching-netflix-really-comparable-to-being-bombed-?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=WEEK%20%2020200509%20%20AL+CID_c6f19a07f0d57c499318c2e1bbf58f70
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 07, 2020, 10:55:04 AM
The people I have been in contact with over the past day or so feel they have little confidence in the governments easing of lockdown. We will see what they are saying on Sunday, but many of my friends and I will be making no lifestyle changes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 07, 2020, 11:55:39 AM
The people I have been in contact with over the past day or so feel they have little confidence in the governments easing of lockdown. We will see what they are saying on Sunday, but many of my friends and I will be making no lifestyle changes.
Mixed messages again coming from Government.
Johnson making announcement on Sunday rather than a day when parliament in session and some changes being implemented on Monday with no consultation.
Meanwhile the papers leak rumors ensuring that there will be a breakdown of the lockdown whatever Johnson says.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 07, 2020, 12:31:07 PM
The people I have been in contact with over the past day or so feel they have little confidence in the governments easing of lockdown. We will see what they are saying on Sunday, but many of my friends and I will be making no lifestyle changes.

Talking to the neighbour, he's itching for everything to get back to normal on Monday. He can keep away from me.

On the subject of numbers, I was reading something from Dominic Minghella, the author/screenwriter. He's been hospitalised with coronavirus, and was warned that he was so ill, he should get his affairs in order. However, he had multiple negative tests, and considers that had he died, he would have been 'one of the uncounted'.

The official numbers are not a true representation of the current situation, and it will be interesting to see what the latest ONS figures are when they come out. The FT is now estimating 53,400 excess deaths to date. Attached below is a comparison of excess deaths, but the data is a few weeks old.

I was also saddened to hear that Dave Greenfield, keyboardist with The Stranglers, has died of the virus. I aways regarded him as the UK's Ray Manzarek.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 07, 2020, 12:56:02 PM

The official numbers are not a true representation of the current situation, and it will be interesting to see what the latest ONS figures are when they come out. The FT is now estimating 53,400 excess deaths to date. Attached below is a comparison of excess deaths, but the data is a few weeks old.

Yes, with the absence of testing and the confusion between covid-19 deaths and deaths where Covid-19 was a contributory factor and deaths unrelated to the virus, the only figures you can rely on are the death figures reported by the ONS. The best indicator of the situation is the difference between the death rate and the average death rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on May 07, 2020, 01:37:35 PM
The people I have been in contact with over the past day or so feel they have little confidence in the governments easing of lockdown. We will see what they are saying on Sunday, but many of my friends and I will be making no lifestyle changes.
I was also saddened to hear that Dave Greenfield, keyboardist with The Stranglers, has died of the virus. I aways regarded him as the UK's Ray Manzarek.
Me too. And Florian Schneider from Kraftwerk.

Interestingly, Dave G never really considered the Doors and influence and claimed to have only heard a couple of their songs before he created his own style. He was influenced more by Rick Wakeman and others.

From the BBC "Critics compared his sound to that of Ray Manzarek from The Doors.

In an interview with the band's website, however, the man himself said he was more influenced by a couple of other famous keyboard players.

"The only tracks by the Doors I knew were Light My Fire & Riders on the Storm," said Greenfield. "Before I joined my main influences were probably Jon Lord [Deep Purple] and then Rick Wakeman [Yes].""
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on May 07, 2020, 01:41:48 PM
For a clear, scientifically based and impartial review on the number of Coronavirus tests and the fatality rates, have a listen to yesterday's 'More or Less' from Radio 4.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08ccb4g

I'll save you some time: the Government did not hit the testing target, and it's not easy to compare international fatality numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 07, 2020, 01:53:29 PM
Florian Schneider actually died of Cancer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on May 07, 2020, 02:01:56 PM
Florian Schneider actually died of Cancer.
Yes, sorry. And it was last week but the news only came out yesterday. I grouped the two as they are both heavy influences of my musical likes, preferences and my own love of electronic music. It has been a shock having them both die so close together.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 07, 2020, 02:15:49 PM
Me too. And Florian Schneider from Kraftwerk.

Interestingly, Dave G never really considered the Doors and influence and claimed to have only heard a couple of their songs before he created his own style. He was influenced more by Rick Wakeman and others.

It's the sound from that Vox Continental.

You can undoubtedly hear Jon Lord in DG's playing, I would say less so Rick Wakeman, but the unmistakeable sound from that Continental was bound to draw comparison with Manzarek. They both had their own unique playing styles, but you could also hear a common essence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 07, 2020, 02:18:35 PM
I'll save you some time: the Government did not hit the testing target, and it's not easy to compare international fatality numbers.

I agree, comparisons of figures made up from different sources is pretty meaningless. The only reasonable comparison is the actual number of deaths, and their variation from the mean.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 07, 2020, 02:41:21 PM
Nicola Sturgeon has stated that the lockdown in Scotland will continue. At present, the only thing she is considering is perhaps allowing people to exercise twice a day, but still only in household groups, maintaining social distancing, and only close to their home.
She hopes that the UK government will ease the lockdown only at a pace that is in line with the slowest of the four regions, but if not, then Scotland will go at its own pace.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 07, 2020, 02:51:01 PM
I'll save you some time: the Government did not hit the testing target, and it's not easy to compare international fatality numbers.

I agree, comparisons of figures made up from different sources is pretty meaningless. The only reasonable comparison is the actual number of deaths, and their variation from the mean.

Only a figure that takes population of country into account ( x deaths per 100,000 ) - and the number of 'excess' deaths on average for the same period in previous years can make sense- but then again some are dying because they are afraid to go to hospital or doctors in case they catch the virus,  these deaths are by-products of the virus rather than victims maybe.  I am still not sure that some countries are lumping everything into 'Covid-19' basket at the moment - because it is easier than sorting out what people actually died from - and if every death needed a post-mortem the country would soon run out of coroners and freezer space.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 07, 2020, 03:37:59 PM
Only a figure that takes population of country into account ( x deaths per 100,000 ) - and the number of 'excess' deaths on average for the same period in previous years can make sense- but then again some are dying because they are afraid to go to hospital or doctors in case they catch the virus,  these deaths are by-products of the virus rather than victims maybe.

On the other hand, deaths from road accidents, industrial accidents, etc., are bound to be lower. In any case, these same effects would also occur in other countries, making it a perfectly valid comparison. If you want to consider excess deaths per 100,000 population, it can easily be calculated, and we are heading for the highest in the world.

Worse still, we are heading for the highest number of healthcare worker deaths per capita, with Italy running a close second. I was looking for this sort of data earlier, and it makes for some grim reading... and some interesting comparisons.

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/05/04/britain-on-track-for-highest-health-worker-deaths-in-europe/

It points to something very wrong here in the UK, and in Italy.


I am still not sure that some countries are lumping everything into 'Covid-19' basket at the moment - because it is easier than sorting out what people actually died from - and if every death needed a post-mortem the country would soon run out of coroners and freezer space.

If other countries were, that would make our figures look even worse.

There is plenty of anecdotal evidence here in the UK to show that significant numbers of care home deaths are being put down as 'old age' or 'brochitis' in order to spare families a post mortem. There was one in the news a while ago where a care home questioned a resident's cause of death being marked down as 'dementia', despite the deceased having no previous history of dementia. The doctor, who had not even attended the death, admitted that this was simply because he was over 80.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 07, 2020, 03:58:34 PM

It points to something very wrong here in the UK, and in Italy.


And the disease caught Italy completely by surprise, whereas the UK had 2 or 3 weeks to prepare.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on May 07, 2020, 04:49:16 PM

It points to something very wrong here in the UK, and in Italy.


And the disease caught Italy completely by surprise, whereas the UK had 2 or 3 weeks to prepare.

It is down to the viral load thing we are hearing more about now and the lack of PPE, in my opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 07, 2020, 05:51:16 PM
It is down to the viral load thing we are hearing more about now and the lack of PPE, in my opinion.

Presumably, the healthcare staff in Spain and Germany have been subjected to similar viral load.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 07, 2020, 05:58:46 PM
On the other hand, deaths from road accidents, industrial accidents, etc., are bound to be lower.

Average death toll on UK roads is about 1,500 to 1,600 a year so less than 4 a day,  industrial accidents will be less than that,  so that is hardly going to make a dent in the figures.

We are in what they call 'the fog of war' at the moment where hard stats are hard to come by,  and I guess nobody will ever really know how many died from the virus itself,  how many died not from the virus but simply because the virus caused health services in every country to cancel other services,  or simply because people were scared to seek treatment because they thought they had a chance of catching virus in hospital or A&E...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 07, 2020, 06:35:51 PM
Once we are sufficiently through this, they will be able to collate the Excess Mortality. Unless we have another disaster in the meantime, then it will be pretty clear that these deaths will be down to Covid-19, in one way or another. Some may be from cancer because people didn't get tested/treated, some may be from heart attacks because they didn't go to the hospital for help, others may be from suicides as businesses go under and marriages break up. But one way or another they are all down to the Coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 07, 2020, 06:36:59 PM
On the other hand, deaths from road accidents, industrial accidents, etc., are bound to be lower.

Average death toll on UK roads is about 1,500 to 1,600 a year so less than 4 a day,  industrial accidents will be less than that,  so that is hardly going to make a dent in the figures.

We are in what they call 'the fog of war' at the moment where hard stats are hard to come by,  and I guess nobody will ever really know how many died from the virus itself,  how many died not from the virus but simply because the virus caused health services in every country to cancel other services,  or simply because people were scared to seek treatment because they thought they had a chance of catching virus in hospital or A&E...

Precise figures may be pretty meaningless just now but the broad picture is pretty obvious.

Last edit inserted quote
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 07, 2020, 06:41:54 PM
It is down to the viral load thing we are hearing more about now and the lack of PPE, in my opinion.

Presumably, the healthcare staff in Spain and Germany have been subjected to similar viral load.
Would the BAME issue also be a factor https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52574931 ? They are well-represented in the NHS and hence at increase risk of catching a big virus load and, if there is some fundamental factor which makes them more vulnerable to severe Covid-19 problems then it's a double-whammy.

Regarding easing the lockdown, there is some interesting analysis at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52543692. The graphic showing the number of deaths split into three different age groups shows that the risk to the under-45s is very low (and even lower if those with other health problems are stripped out).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 07, 2020, 06:49:26 PM
Average death toll on UK roads is about 1,500 to 1,600 a year so less than 4 a day,  industrial accidents will be less than that,  so that is hardly going to make a dent in the figures.

Nor can I see that many staying at home when they're having a stroke or heart attack.

Of the many factors involved, most of them are insignificant when compared to the coronavirus deaths, and to try to argue that this is within the realms of normal is not credible. It's not normal for care homes to lose a third of their residents in the space of a few weeks, nor is it normal for almost 200 healthcare workers to die either.

How many days do you have in a year round your parts?  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 07, 2020, 07:22:35 PM
Channel 4 News 1st item this evening particularly relevant to preparedness of government for pandemic wrt PPE.

Well worth a watch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 07, 2020, 08:27:57 PM
Channel 4 News 1st item this evening particularly relevant to preparedness of government for pandemic wrt PPE.

Well worth a watch.

Diabolical really.

https://www.channel4.com/news/revealed-ppe-stockpile-was-out-of-date-when-coronavirus-hit-uk

Channel 4, one of the 4 UK Public Service Broadcasters, have been denied a daily briefing question since Sunday, and the government rarely offers anyone up for Channel 4 News interviews. They had a spat with Radio 4's Today programme for a while and refused to go on there, and are now refusing to allow ministers doing the morning media rounds to participate on ITV's GMB.

The contempt they have for anyone that asks awkward questions is palpable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 07, 2020, 10:05:17 PM
The people I have been in contact with over the past day or so feel they have little confidence in the governments easing of lockdown. We will see what they are saying on Sunday, but many of my friends and I will be making no lifestyle changes.
Mixed messages again coming from Government.
Johnson making announcement on Sunday rather than a day when parliament in session and some changes being implemented on Monday with no consultation.
Meanwhile the papers leak rumors ensuring that there will be a breakdown of the lockdown whatever Johnson says.

I must be psychic. Honestly I did not read this article until 10pm. it's dated Thu 7 May 2020 19.46 BST

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/mixed-messages-uk-governments-strategy-fuels-fears-of-rule-breaking

Cumming's psychology?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 08, 2020, 03:47:17 PM
It is down to the viral load thing we are hearing more about now and the lack of PPE, in my opinion.

Presumably, the healthcare staff in Spain and Germany have been subjected to similar viral load.

Perhaps their PPE was up to scratch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 09, 2020, 10:16:26 AM
And Nicola does not slopey shoulder the difficult questions to one of the minions, as happens in number 10. She answers every question and only then goes to one of the specialists for their input. Many times they say they have nothing extra to add. She is on the ball.
I mirror the faith in her handling of the situation as reported in The Guardian link.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 10, 2020, 01:54:59 PM
Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon has just tweeted the original “stay at home” message and pinned it - meaning it will come up as the first tweet on her profile.

Nicola Sturgeon

@NicolaSturgeon

STAY HOME. PROTECT THE NHS. SAVE LIVES.
69.4K
11:36 AM - May 10, 2020

This is likely to be read as her doubling down on her earlier statement that the Scottish government would not be adopting the UK government’s new “stay alert” slogan. She argues it is too soon to lift the “stay home” message in Scotland.

Sturgeon, alongside the Scottish and Welsh health ministers, have alleged that they were not consulted on the change of slogan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 10, 2020, 02:03:26 PM
Germany has seen a rise in cases since it eased restrictions and the R number is now reckoned to be above one. South Korea too is seeing cases increasing, and their president is warning of a second peak.
The problem with Boris easing the message is that people in the devolved regions will see it as a UK wide easing, not just for England.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 10, 2020, 02:24:13 PM
South Korea has just announced it has had to close bars, clubs and restaurants again as infections spike and Wuhan has reported its first case in a month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on May 10, 2020, 02:24:39 PM
She argues it is too soon to lift the “stay home” message in Scotland.

One of the possibilities being touted about this new "Stay Alert" slogan is that there might be different alert levels in different regions. So if R is higher in Scotland than in (say) Devon, maybe it's reasonable that the restrictions might be different as well. Will the great British public understand that and be able to work with it? Dunno.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 10, 2020, 02:52:39 PM
She argues it is too soon to lift the “stay home” message in Scotland.

One of the possibilities being touted about this new "Stay Alert" slogan is that there might be different alert levels in different regions. So if R is higher in Scotland than in (say) Devon, maybe it's reasonable that the restrictions might be different as well. Will the great British public understand that and be able to work with it? Dunno.
More ambiguity and confusion.
Keep it simple.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 10, 2020, 03:37:56 PM
Germany has seen a rise in cases since it eased restrictions and the R number is now reckoned to be above one. South Korea too is seeing cases increasing, and their president is warning of a second peak.
The problem with Boris easing the message is that people in the devolved regions will see it as a UK wide easing, not just for England.

South Korea has just announced it has had to close bars, clubs and restaurants again as infections spike and Wuhan has reported its first case in a month.
All the more reason for Johnson to be cautious. All these places have daily infection rates much less than the UK and new cases will most likely be tracked and traced whereas in the UK we have no idea where new cases will be cropping up.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=DEU+ITA+KOR+ESP+SWE+GBR+USA+CHN

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-cases-covid-19?time=2020-03-02..&country=CHN+DEU+KOR+GBR

Last edit Added graph for confirmed cases
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 10, 2020, 03:49:38 PM
The second wave in 1918 Spanish flu was by far the worst..

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 10, 2020, 06:16:36 PM
Was the virus in the UK earlier than previously thought? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449 . Also, France had its first case in December https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554 .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: d2d4j on May 10, 2020, 09:28:15 PM
Hi

Funny you post that

I had exact same symptoms with worst been Christmas Day and I live in West Yorkshire between Bradford and leeds

I believe I have had it and am waiting for the antibodies test if it is ever released

It was the one and only time I even considered going to hospital and for me, it has to be exceptional bad for that to happen. I got through it day by day

Many thanks

John
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 10, 2020, 09:44:46 PM
So Boris (or more particularly, his cabinet) is prepared to sell the health of English workers down the Swanee for the sake of their cronies in the CBI. I pray that as lives are lost they quickly see the error of their ways.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 11, 2020, 10:01:49 AM
If there were confusion and mixed messages yesterday, it appears even worse this morning. Everyone from the press to the scientists voicing their opinion and they all feel the government has made a hash of it. May come clearer after the announcement in the house and the publication of the policy document, but Boris' love for a show certainly did him no favours last night.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 11, 2020, 10:35:02 AM
So the  French will not be included in the travellers arriving in the UK by air who will have to quarantine for 14 days.
Covid-19 is rife in France.
Smells a bit of Brexit to me!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 11, 2020, 10:36:30 AM
If there were confusion and mixed messages yesterday, it appears even worse this morning. Everyone from the press to the scientists voicing their opinion and they all feel the government has made a hash of it. May come clearer after the announcement in the house and the publication of the policy document, but Boris' love for a show certainly did him no favours last night.
Raab's not helping either:-
"Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Raab appeared to say that people could meet up with their two parents in a park, as long as you stay 2 metres away from them. This not only contradicts what the prime minister said last night (that just two people from different households could meet up outside), but it also contradicts what he told BBC breakfast earlier. "
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on May 11, 2020, 10:48:30 AM
This is a true omnishambles now, only the consequences will not be humerous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on May 11, 2020, 10:50:11 AM
The important thing is the 2 metre rule and avoiding close contact. We know the virus is more spreadable in an indoor setting so some relaxation on outside activities is OK by me but instead of "Stay alert" why not "Keep your distance."

I'm concerned that the 2 metre rule might be diluted given the mixed messages.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 11, 2020, 11:02:38 AM
Following Mr Johnson's speech, No 10 confirmed a reciprocal deal with the government in Paris meant restrictions would not apply to passengers from France.

In a joint statement, the UK and French governments said they had agreed to "work together in taking forward appropriate border measures", adding: "This co-operation is particularly necessary for the management of our common border."

The statement added: "No quarantine measures would apply to travellers coming from France at this stage; any measures on either side would be taken in a concerted and reciprocal manner.

"A working group between the two governments will be set up to ensure this consultation throughout the coming weeks."


Sounds like a Brexit deal to me. So does this mean if a UK family takes a holiday in France, they won't have to quarantine on their return? Sounds like a cosy arrangement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 11, 2020, 12:08:56 PM
You've got Andrew Bridgen MP telling Piers Morgan this morning that he's allowed to visit anybody he likes so long as they mantain social distancing.

The whole things a mess, even their own MPs don't understand the rules.


On a lighter note,

https://twitter.com/OFalafel/status/1259446167831752710?s=20
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on May 11, 2020, 12:11:51 PM
The important thing is the 2 metre rule and avoiding close contact. We know the virus is more spreadable in an indoor setting so some relaxation on outside activities is OK by me but instead of "Stay alert" why not "Keep your distance."

I'm concerned that the 2 metre rule might be diluted given the mixed messages.

Completely agree with that sentiment. Just from observations during my morning walk today, it looks like many people have heard the bit about “You should go to work if you cannot work from home ...” but have not heard (or understood) the caveat “ ... if you can do so whilst maintaining social distancing.” Example is the half-dozen or so tradesmen who turned up this morning to continue renovating the next-door property. No way are they staying 2m apart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on May 11, 2020, 01:51:31 PM
Took my lunch break (still working full time from home) in front of the news on BBC2 and happened to see Nichola Sturgeon's briefing at 12:30. What a difference. Brief, fact filled, unambiguous, sensible and with explanations, from all three speakers. Couldn't stick around for the Q&A but was a world away from what we got from Boris last night and his minions for the last few weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 11, 2020, 02:14:46 PM
Here's a useful comparison of the progress countries are making with infection rates, and the stage they are at

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: springswood on May 11, 2020, 06:08:18 PM
Thanks for the link. The recommendations are interesting.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 11, 2020, 07:01:35 PM

Should be worth a watch tonight?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000j6ry


Broadcast
Today 20:30
 BBC One Scotland & Scotland HD only

Don't know if you'll be able to get this in England live.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 11, 2020, 08:04:22 PM
I watched Boris this afternoon. What a lying waffling sh*t*. I am on record here as saying I will never vote SNP or Yes to Independence, but this past week has made me rethink that strategy.
He's not doing much better tonight.
Contrast with Nicola Sturgeon
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52616029
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 11, 2020, 08:37:21 PM

Should be worth a watch tonight?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000j6ry


Broadcast
Today 20:30
 BBC One Scotland & Scotland HD only

Don't know if you'll be able to get this in England live.

Rest of UK

Sky 951/977
Freesat 960/973
Virgin 862
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 11, 2020, 09:02:20 PM

Should be worth a watch tonight?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000j6ry


Broadcast
Today 20:30
 BBC One Scotland & Scotland HD only

Don't know if you'll be able to get this in England live.

Rest of UK

Sky 951/977
Freesat 960/973
Virgin 862

Thanks.
Well worth watching.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 12, 2020, 10:17:00 AM
Wonder if anyone will flee across the border for protection from virus in England LOL

Like this..

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 12, 2020, 10:24:37 AM
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2020/05/raghib-ali-what-i-saw-as-an-epidemiologist-on-the-covid-19-frontline-and-why-i-believe-that-the-nhs-is-no-longer-under-threat.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Tuesday%2012%20May%202020&utm_content=Tuesday%2012%20May%202020+CID_c0b27d01052ac2ca7e6922fc30794182&utm_source=Daily%20Email&utm_term=Raghib%20Ali%20What%20Ive%20seen%20as%20an%20epidemiologist%20on%20the%20Covid-19%20frontline%20And%20why%20its%20hard%20to%20see%20how%20the%20NHS%20now%20couldnt%20cope

Looks like the smart people are backing lifting of restrictions - but not the Welsh and Scottish politicians ....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 12, 2020, 10:50:16 AM
Looks like the smart people are backing lifting of restrictions - but not the Welsh and Scottish politicians ....
One epidemiologist towing the party line. Hardly what I would call the smart people.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/coronavirus-trump-why-protests-are-happening-united-states/12162708 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/coronavirus-trump-why-protests-are-happening-united-states/12162708)

What about Trump and these "smart" people?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 12, 2020, 03:55:58 PM
Idiot Boris mentioned alerts for virus getting in the water supply in parliament today, forcing water boards to issue a statement...

He would be better off keeping his trap shut and letting Sunak run the show.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 12, 2020, 05:22:57 PM
Idiot Boris mentioned alerts for virus getting in the water supply in parliament today, forcing water boards to issue a statement...

He would be better off keeping his trap shut and letting Sunak run the show.

Just like Christine Keeler said in court 'well they would say that wouldn't they'...

Maybe he was right to mention it - - -

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200403132347.htm
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 12, 2020, 06:00:13 PM
Just like Christine Keeler said in court 'well they would say that wouldn't they'...

Maybe he was right to mention it - - -

Chlorination kills these viruses very effectively, there's no chance of transmission through the drinking water supplies here.

I'm not sure I would be over keen on working in sewage treatment though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 12, 2020, 06:06:25 PM
This is ironic.

Due to the virus the day has come when it is safer to ride a motorcycle than take a taxi, bus, tram, train or fly in an airliner ...... or go shopping.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 12, 2020, 06:10:13 PM
Just watched tonight's No 10's Wafflecrap and was shocked and dismayed to see how ignorant the Chief Executive of the HSE was. I thought that with HSE oversight of workplaces health and Safety would be premium, but when asked about the dangers to over 50's in the workplace (twice as likely to die of Covid-19 than twenty-somethings) she started rambling about the vulnerable and those shielding in the workplace. The vulnerable are 70+ and those shielding are not allowed out, never mind going to work. What a waste of time these updates are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 13, 2020, 08:28:34 AM
This is ironic.

Due to the virus the day has come when it is safer to ride a motorcycle than take a taxi, bus, tram, train or fly in an airliner ...... or go shopping.
Is this calculation based on the risk of catching the virus or of dying from it? These are two completely different outcomes depending on where a person sits on the at risk scale.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 13, 2020, 08:55:13 AM
This is ironic.

Due to the virus the day has come when it is safer to ride a motorcycle than take a taxi, bus, tram, train or fly in an airliner ...... or go shopping.
Is this calculation based on the risk of catching the virus or of dying from it? These are two completely different outcomes depending on where a person sits on the at risk scale.

If you really want to know it is based on having a laff and lightening up this depressing thread -  :-*
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: springswood on May 13, 2020, 08:55:57 AM
Which reminds me, a week or so ago I had just stopped at a red light where two 3 lane dual carriage ways cross. A guy on a motorbike, early 20s, weaved through the traffic, had a quick look and pulled off with the light still red. No helmet either, but he did have a face mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 13, 2020, 10:25:17 AM
Which reminds me, a week or so ago I had just stopped at a red light where two 3 lane dual carriage ways cross. A guy on a motorbike, early 20s, weaved through the traffic, had a quick look and pulled off with the light still red. No helmet either, but he did have a face mask.

There is a name for young blokes on powerful bikes ( litre bikes ) - 'organ donors'.... the risk is less even for them these days because of lighter traffic ( less things to hit ).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on May 13, 2020, 10:27:44 AM
This is ironic.

Due to the virus the day has come when it is safer to ride a motorcycle than take a taxi, bus, tram, train or fly in an airliner ...... or go shopping.
Is this calculation based on the risk of catching the virus or of dying from it? These are two completely different outcomes depending on where a person sits on the at risk scale.

If you really want to know it is based on having a laff and lightening up this depressing thread -  :-*

Not often I agree with you Culzean but your comment here is hilarious. Thanks for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 13, 2020, 01:04:25 PM
It must be the English sense of humour.
I can find nothing funny in unnecessary deaths either from road traffic accidents or mismanagement of corona virus.

Here's an interesting article showing the modelling behind lockdown, testing and tracing and isolation and vaccination.

https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR2HZf861gE1FTABtzbeKkKi1Mf4jXTtArEYS_viDbdgz8G6amIbJCm5T0k

Don't downplay fear to build up hope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on May 13, 2020, 01:11:07 PM
It must be the English sense of humour.
I can find nothing funny in unnecessary deaths either from road traffic accidents or mismanagement of corona virus.
Don't downplay fear to build up hope.
It's our sense of irony which is at the heart of out humour I think. Doesn't always work in the written form.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 13, 2020, 02:50:01 PM
It must be the English sense of humour.
I can find nothing funny in unnecessary deaths either from road traffic accidents or mismanagement of corona virus.
Don't downplay fear to build up hope.
It's our sense of irony which is at the heart of out humour I think. Doesn't always work in the written form.

I think you may be right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 13, 2020, 03:04:22 PM
Here's an interesting article showing the modelling behind lockdown, testing and tracing and isolation and vaccination.

https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR2HZf861gE1FTABtzbeKkKi1Mf4jXTtArEYS_viDbdgz8G6amIbJCm5T0k

Don't downplay fear to build up hope.
Brilliant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 13, 2020, 03:08:07 PM
Nobody to blame for this virus except the Chinese and their strange habits with animals and the opaque nature of their government... would not surprise me if this virus was around long before Chinese new year and they still allowed people to flock in and out of China - even though it was within the governments power to close the borders and airports.

Now here is something - https://www.giantmicrobes.com/uk/products/coronavirus.html

Guessing that this is also made in China.. Just like the original.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 13, 2020, 03:13:05 PM
Nobody to blame for this virus except the Chinese and their strange habits with animals and the opaque nature of their government... would not surprise me if this virus was around long before Chinese new year and they still allowed people to flock in and out of China - even though it was within the governments power to close the borders and airports.
Is that  irony too?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 13, 2020, 03:21:48 PM
It must be the English sense of humour.
I can find nothing funny in unnecessary deaths either from road traffic accidents or mismanagement of corona virus.
Don't downplay fear to build up hope.
It's our sense of irony which is at the heart of out humour I think. Doesn't always work in the written form.

I was watching Grant Shapps (Michael Green or Sebastian Fox)  at breakfast time trying to rationalise the government's lockdown relaxation strategy and calling it "common sense"
All it needed was for a big foot to descend on his head and for somebody to say " and now for something completely different"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 13, 2020, 03:22:25 PM
Nobody to blame for this virus except the Chinese and their strange habits with animals and the opaque nature of their government... would not surprise me if this virus was around long before Chinese new year and they still allowed people to flock in and out of China - even though it was within the governments power to close the borders and airports.
Is that  irony too?

No - just being a good citizen of the world and giving as well as taking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 13, 2020, 03:25:40 PM
In case you missed the point I've amended my previous post and put the last sentence in bold.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinS on May 13, 2020, 03:31:57 PM
Nobody to blame for this virus except the Chinese and their strange habits with animals and the opaque nature of their government.

I could not agree more!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 13, 2020, 03:47:27 PM
China may or may not be the source of this virus, but at this point, it is largely irrelevant. It is, however, a useful tool for deflecting blame for the abject failure of this government to protect its citizens, particularly those in care homes.

From Chris Giles at the FT

Quote
Update: following the latest official figures from the four UK nations, a cautious estimate of the total number of UK excess deaths during the Covid-19 epidemic up to 13 May is

60,400

51,400 already in official data. Data from Scotland today was in line with expectations

ENDS
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 13, 2020, 04:28:43 PM
Just had a look at Worldometer
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
New deaths
UK 494 : Mexico 353 : Spain 184 :Sweden 147 : USA 142
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 13, 2020, 07:02:45 PM
Just had a look at Worldometer
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
New deaths
UK 494 : Mexico 353 : Spain 184 :Sweden 147 : USA 142


USA now been updated to 761. Presumably other American countries will update too
Of course everybody else might be falsifying their figures. ::)

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 13, 2020, 09:02:03 PM
I wouldn't say falsifying figures but some bear little relationship to reality. Countries with little or no testing and health systems that are barely more than first aid. Countries with no real government. And then there is Russia.

Nicola didn't exactly say it at First Minister's Question Time today but she made it quite clear that the UK government were not publishing accurate figures for care home deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 13, 2020, 09:03:35 PM
I’ve been wondering about the calculation of the R or R0 number that they keep quoting in the news. How accurate is it?
What is it based on?
By how much does it lag the figures from which it is calculated?
From a thread on another forum I found this about the way the German figure is calculated.
R=(M1+M2+M3+M4)/(M5+M6+M7+M8)
M - daily measure of Covid19
1 to 8 represent day of measurement - 1 day earlier, 2 days earlier, 3 days earlier...
Basically it's how the measure changes on a timescale representing the 4 days when somebody might be infectious.
Choice of 4 days and averaging over 4 days presumably not written in stone as you would use months or years for something much longer term like HIV.
The poster saw this on German news, starting at 02:35 in the video below. The graphics at 03:22 might be understandable without understanding German.
 http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/sendung/ts-37053.html
The actual German formula is
R=(M4+M5+M6+M7)/(M8+M9+M10+M11)
From other posts on the forum the value the Germans use for M, their measure of Covid 19,is hospital admissions but this would be an unreliable figure to use in UK as many suffer from Covid 19 without being admitted to hospital. Sage would no doubt use a different measure of M.
From another post the German figure, by the nature of the calculation , lags real time by about 10 days.
Given the random nature of testing in the UK, the closeness of R to 1 and the inevitable time lag in calculation of R can we be confident that Boris can  detect and correct a future rise in infections?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 13, 2020, 09:11:58 PM
According to what was said today it appears that all countries use the same method for calculation. The fact that it apparently gets more accurate over time would tend to indicate that the longer time the calculation is extrapolated from the better the R0. Nicola promised MSPs a training brief if they so wish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on May 13, 2020, 09:55:10 PM
I’ve been wondering about the calculation of the R or R0 number that they keep quoting in the news. How accurate is it?
What is it based on?
By how much does it lag the figures from which it is calculated?
Worth having a listen to today’s “More or Less” on BBC R4:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j2r7
Basically it’s not a precise measurement, it’s a probabilistic estimate using a whole bunch of assumptions. If I understand it correctly, the most accurate data to use is deaths, but there’s typically a 20 day lag between infection and death so up to that point they look at mobility data to estimate how many people any one individual has been in contact with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 13, 2020, 09:56:38 PM
It was just on the news just now saying that statisticians reckon the only accurate way to collate deaths from Covid-19 from around the world is to take the total deaths per country and compare it with the same period in previous years. On that basis, the Covid-19 deaths in Russia are, in fact, triple that currently reported.
Mexico is recording Covid-19 deaths as pneumonia. For every four deaths they register as Coronavirus there are another fifty recorded as pneumonia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 13, 2020, 10:08:42 PM
According to John Hopkins University at 22:00 12/5/20, the UK has 230985 confirmed cases and 33263 deaths.
Russia has 242271 cases and 2212 deaths.
Believe it if you like.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 13, 2020, 10:15:13 PM
Nicola didn't exactly say it at First Minister's Question Time today but she made it quite clear that the UK government were not publishing accurate figures for care home deaths.

Not sure if you will have seen this

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/coronavirus-real-care-home-death-toll-double-official-figure-study-says
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 13, 2020, 10:18:37 PM
According to John Hopkins University at 22:00 12/5/20, the UK has 230985 confirmed cases and 33263 deaths.
Russia has 242271 cases and 2212 deaths.
Believe it if you like.

I read something quite early on about Russia, when they had only just started to declare a few deaths. While they had had few CoViD deaths, deaths from pneumonia were already four times the normal level for winter.

Numbers in Russia are starting to shoot up now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 13, 2020, 10:47:34 PM
I’ve been wondering about the calculation of the R or R0 number that they keep quoting in the news. How accurate is it?
What is it based on?
By how much does it lag the figures from which it is calculated?
If I understand it correctly, the most accurate data to use is deaths, but there’s typically a 20 day lag between infection and death so up to that point they look at mobility data to estimate how many people any one individual has been in contact with.
There's the rub. If there's a 20 day lag before an increase in R is detected then they would be working on 20 day old information and the virus could be once again out of control.
I presume this mobility data will come from this app. that has yet to be developed and adopted.
Did it say how this could be used to calculate the R value?

This looks very worrying as well with regard to processing of test results.
https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/exclusive-test-data-from-commercial-labs-going-into-black-hole/7027619.article
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on May 13, 2020, 11:05:43 PM
I presume this mobility data will come from this app. that has yet to be developed and adopted.
I suppose it could do, but that’s not what they’re doing at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 14, 2020, 09:31:54 AM
I presume this mobility data will come from this app. that has yet to be developed and adopted.
I suppose it could do, but that’s not what they’re doing at the moment.
What are they doing at the moment?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 14, 2020, 10:07:26 AM
It was just on the news just now saying that statisticians reckon the only accurate way to collate deaths from Covid-19 from around the world is to take the total deaths per country and compare it with the same period in previous years.
That's why I've been posting the ONS figures for the last three or four weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 14, 2020, 10:11:04 AM
According to what was said today it appears that all countries use the same method for calculation. The fact that it apparently gets more accurate over time would tend to indicate that the longer time the calculation is extrapolated from the better the R0.

Garbage in Garbage out?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on May 14, 2020, 10:23:16 AM
I presume this mobility data will come from this app. that has yet to be developed and adopted.
I suppose it could do, but that’s not what they’re doing at the moment.
What are they doing at the moment?

I'm not going to paraphrase a complex technical point, I refer you to the source as previously suggested:
Worth having a listen to today’s “More or Less” on BBC R4:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j2r7
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 14, 2020, 10:45:10 AM

I suppose it could do, but that’s not what they’re doing at the moment.
What are they doing at the moment?

I'm not going to paraphrase a complex technical point, I refer you to the source as previously suggested:
Worth having a listen to today’s “More or Less” on BBC R4:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j2r7
I'm hard of hearing and have been unable to find a transcript.
Do you have another (written) source?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 14, 2020, 10:56:27 AM
This is how tracking apps seem to work,  relying on bluetooth to gauge proximity and time spent next to someone - but really you could get virus if someone sneezes on you and then moves away - having spent less than 5 seconds by you. Does not cover surface transmission either ( hand to mouth or nose ). 

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2020/04/challenge-proximity-apps-covid-19-contact-tracing

I see airlines are stuck as to how to distance passengers - and even then the air circulation system on aircraft may heve been purposely designed to spread diseases  :-[

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 14, 2020, 11:42:04 AM
This is how tracking apps seem to work,  relying on bluetooth to gauge proximity and time spent next to someone - but really you could get virus if someone sneezes on you and then moves away - having spent less than 5 seconds by you. Does not cover surface transmission either ( hand to mouth or nose ). 

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2020/04/challenge-proximity-apps-covid-19-contact-tracing

I see airlines are stuck as to how to distance passengers - and even then the air circulation system on aircraft may heve been purposely designed to spread diseases  :-[
Thanks. That's the method that I was thinking about.
I interpreted ColinB's post as implying that there was a process in place for tracking the spread of the disease without the app. Neither the process of tracing involving Bluetooth or the traditional "feet on the ground" or "ears on the telephone" are in place as far as I know.
Was there not a promise to recruit and train 18000 by the middle of this month?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on May 14, 2020, 12:27:44 PM
I interpreted ColinB's post as implying that there was a process in place for tracking the spread of the disease without the app.
Nope, I didn't say that. Your original query was "How is R calculated?" so I was responding to that. The answer, according to the tame expert on "More or Less", is that at present it's not a measurement, it's a probabilistic estimate derived from various data sources and involving a whole lot of assumptions. Sorry if this is "granny and eggs" but it is important to understand the difference between a measurement and an estimate. Presumably at some future time it might be feasible to actually measure it using an app or some other magic, but that's not possible at present.

Regarding your request for a transcript, AFAIK BBC do not publish transcripts of radio shows so no luck there. The expert doing the informing is described as "a senior statistician at PHE, and part of the MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge". You might find something on their websites.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 14, 2020, 01:01:35 PM

Regarding your request for a transcript, AFAIK BBC do not publish transcripts of radio shows so no luck there. The expert doing the informing is described as "a senior statistician at PHE, and part of the MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge". You might find something on their websites.

Thanks. I went on MRC Biostatistics site but it was soon way above my head. Will have another look later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 14, 2020, 02:08:53 PM
Nicola was being questioned this lunchtime about R0, as there had been a Scottish Government technical briefing this morning. I got what she was saying, but the journos didn't. I had just explained it to my wife when Nicola gave almost the same explanation.
The actual R0 is only relevant in conjunction with the number of infections there currently are. If R0=1 and there are ten infected people that ten would pass the virus on to a further 10. If however R0=0.5 and there are 2000 affected people then they would infect 1000 more. It is a case of balancing the R0 and the number of cases of infection to reduce the spread of the virus and steadily decrease the amount who actively have and can pass on the virus.
Hope I have made this clear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 14, 2020, 02:28:16 PM
There is lots of talk about Care Homes on the news today. I have heard from multiple sources that some private care homes are not applying to have staff members tested as they don't want them to show up as positive and have to go off sick. The manager has to request the test, not the staff member.
One of the journalists today spoke of a care home where staff have symptoms but cannot get a test. Surely they should be home and self-isolating, not attending to the old and infirm?
We have greed to blame for a lot of the Covid-19 deaths, here and elsewhere around the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on May 14, 2020, 02:49:25 PM
Nicola was being questioned this lunchtime about R0, as there had been a Scottish Government technical briefing this morning. I got what she was saying, but the journos didn't. I had just explained it to my wife when Nicola gave almost the same explanation.
The actual R0 is only relevant in conjunction with the number of infections there currently are. If R0=1 and there are ten infected people that ten would pass the virus on to a further 10. If however R0=0.5 and there are 2000 affected people then they would infect 1000 more. It is a case of balancing the R0 and the number of cases of infection to reduce the spread of the virus and steadily decrease the amount who actively have and can pass on the virus.
Hope I have made this clear.
As crystal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 14, 2020, 03:14:39 PM
There is lots of talk about Care Homes on the news today. I have heard from multiple sources that some private care homes are not applying to have staff members tested as they don't want them to show up as positive and have to go off sick.
Surely not. That sounds very scary. If so, the carers could be infecting the patients.
A responsible manager should be wanting as much testing done as possible. Also negative tests on those self-isolating carers would allow them back to work.

One of the journalists today spoke of a care home where staff have symptoms but cannot get a test. Surely they should be home and self-isolating, not attending to the old and infirm?
Absolutely


We have greed to blame for a lot of the Covid-19 deaths, here and elsewhere around the world.

Spot on again. And a lot more of what is wrong in the World beside.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 14, 2020, 03:20:20 PM
One of the journalists today spoke of a care home where staff have symptoms but cannot get a test. Surely they should be home and self-isolating, not attending to the old and infirm?


Even if they get the tests, there are problems.

Quote
A GP in Cheshire said tests carried out at one care home were simply not collected for processing, while Jess Phillips, the MP for Birmingham Yardley tweeted: “A Birmingham care home, 30 tests sent and done. No one ever came to pick them up, so they went in the bin. No one got tested.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/11/hopes-raised-for-end-to-covid-19-crisis-in-uk-care-homes-as-death-rates-fall
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 14, 2020, 03:27:19 PM
Home Farm in Portree (Skye), where seven residents died, have had an NHS team put in to provide care. The Care Inspectorate had raised "serious concerns" about the quality of care after an inspection of the home on Tuesday. So far, 30 of the home's 34 resident have tested positive for Covid-19 as well as 29 staff. I would not be surprised if prosecutions follow in due course.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-52658559 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-52658559)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 14, 2020, 05:11:03 PM
Home Farm in Portree (Skye), where seven residents died, have had an NHS team put in to provide care. The Care Inspectorate had raised "serious concerns" about the quality of care after an inspection of the home on Tuesday. So far, 30 of the home's 34 resident have tested positive for Covid-19 as well as 29 staff. I would not be surprised if prosecutions follow in due course.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-52658559 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-52658559)

It has been alleged on Twitter that they brought in staff from Kent after the lockdown.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Scotland/comments/ghylme/twitter_hcone_operator_of_troubled_skye_care_home/

https://news.stv.tv/highlands-islands/legal-action-to-take-over-covid-19-hit-skye-care-home?top

We have greed to blame for a lot of the Covid-19 deaths, here and elsewhere around the world.


"Reader Glen Munro has helpfully directed me to information on HC-One, owned by a US corporation until 2018 but now registered in the Cayman Islands."
"Although HC-One has declared a loss in every year except one since its creation in 2011, investors received cash dividends of £42.3m in 2017 and £6.2m in 2018. HC-One has paid no corporation tax in that time, but instead received net tax credits of £6.5m since its reorganisation in 2014. The group’s auditors are infamous offshore tax-avoidance experts Deloitte. HC-One’s structure “means investors and executives are likely to have received much greater sums as only one subsidiary, FC Skyfall Upper Midco Ltd, files consolidated accounts”. Court Cavendish, owned by Dr Chai Patel (90%) and his family trust (10%), has received £25m in management fees."

https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2020/05/10/is-bbc-scotlands-disclosure-team-to-scared-or-too-stupid-to-investigate-the-care-home-deaths-in-skye-even-though-the-owners-pay-no-tax/

https://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/news/nhs-highland-steps-in-to-help-skye-care-home-at-the-centre-of-a-major-covid-19-outbreak-that-has-so-far-claimed-the-lives-of-seven-people-199672/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 14, 2020, 07:03:52 PM
HC-One has had problems in other care homes near me prior to Covid.

Tonight I watched Number 10's Wafflecrap and was interested to see JVT dodge questions on why visitors from France should not have a 14-day Quarantine in the UK. Twice he back healed it, spouting the government crap that had nowt to do with the questions asked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 14, 2020, 09:06:06 PM
I saw this very significant report earlier today https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52643682 . It's now been buried by other stuff. WHO has realised that the virus isn't going to disappear in a hurry.

Edit: And another interesting finding https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/over-25-of-the-uk-likely-to-have-had-covid-19-already/ which puts the deaths in context.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on May 15, 2020, 01:22:09 PM
Came across this account of what long-haul flying is like these days (published via https://www.tortoisemedia.com/, if anyone’s wondering):

“Today, a look forward ... to the future of air travel.

That future has already arrived in Hong Kong, where Laurel Chor, a photojournalist for National Geographic and others, posted a Twitter thread on her journey there from Paris that’s worth summarising in some detail:

Masks and gloves for BA check-in staff at Charles de Gaulle for Chor’s flight via London to Hong Kong – but not for flight crew on the long-haul leg.
100 people only on that leg, in a Boeing 777 with room for more than 300.
“So many steps and stations upon arrival in HK that I’ve forgotten half” – but they included filling in a quarantine order and health declaration, downloading an app, registering and putting on a tracking bracelet and having her phone tested to check it worked.
Face-to-face meeting with a health official to explain a 14-day quarantine process requiring Chor to fill out a daily symptom and temperature-tracking table. “He asked if I had someone to take care of me and if I had a thermometer. When I hesitated, he gave me one.”
Bags loaded by men in full protective gear onto buses to Asia World Expo centre for testing.
Strict social distancing for video instruction on how to self-administer deep throat saliva antigen test.
Booths provided for privacy for the test. “I made a ‘kruuar’ sound as instructed to hock up my deep throat saliva and spit it into a tube” which Chor then double-bagged.
After an eight-hour wait for test results, she was free to leave the airport.

Thank you, Laurel. Notable from her thread is the clear impression of meticulous planning but also friendliness on the part of Hong Kong health officials (who have kept Covid-19 infections to 1,052 and deaths to four). So travelling safely is possible, but laborious.”

Wonder what the arrangements will be on the return journey?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 15, 2020, 03:26:08 PM
Edit: And another interesting finding https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/over-25-of-the-uk-likely-to-have-had-covid-19-already/ which puts the deaths in context.

There are two ways of looking at that. 25% sounds a lot, but it means that three times as many have not yet been exposed to the virus.

On the other hand, the ONS study referred to in yesterday's briefing said that 0.27% of the population was testing positive, i.e. infected over the last two weeks. That doesn't sound a lot to me for a two week period.

From the ONS study, they found 1.33% of those working in the health and care sectors tested positive, whilst 0.22% of those working in other sectors tested positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 15, 2020, 03:49:00 PM
A poll (Mori & YouGov), published today, shows that the people of Scotland feel the Scottish government is following the right line in dealing with Covid-19. More than 80% of those polled think what is being done in Scotland is the way to go. Myself included.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/public-attitudes-coronavirus-april-summary/pages/1/ (https://www.gov.scot/publications/public-attitudes-coronavirus-april-summary/pages/1/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 15, 2020, 04:11:12 PM
Came across this account of what long-haul flying is like these days (published via https://www.tortoisemedia.com/, if anyone’s wondering):

“Today, a look forward ... to the future of air travel

Things have to change,  we cannot keep transporting diseases across the globe in less than 24 hours,  and the aircraft themselves are like flying petri dishes...  people have to realise that its not a good idea to go to Romania for a stag do,  or get married in Las Vegas.   I used to do a fair bit of longhaul flying for work,  got so that now I don't care if i never see inside another airport or airliner - EVER.  Don't mind normal flying closer to the ground where you actually get to see something other than clouds and the back of the seat in front of you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 15, 2020, 04:15:42 PM
So that is SAGE just announced that the R0 for the UK has just increased and is now between 0.7 and 1. And that is not factoring in the changes since Monday. Happy lockdown!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 15, 2020, 04:20:48 PM
A poll (Mori & YouGov), published today, shows that the people of Scotland feel the Scottish government is following the right line in dealing with Covid-19. More than 80% of those polled think what is being done in Scotland is the way to go. Myself included.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/public-attitudes-coronavirus-april-summary/pages/1/ (https://www.gov.scot/publications/public-attitudes-coronavirus-april-summary/pages/1/)

I agree.

So that is SAGE just announced that the R0 for the UK has just increased and is now between 0.7 and 1. And that is not factoring in the changes since Monday. Happy lockdown!

Just about to post that myself.

Looks like the beginnings of a free for all round here, next door have had visitors this morning. I'm sure they are all 'staying alert'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 15, 2020, 06:26:34 PM
Chinese keeping ahead of the game - already working on Covid-20 or 21.

Learnt from this one and looking for something with a harder shell next time...

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/05/12/mexico-finds-15000-turtles-in-crates-bound-for-china/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 16, 2020, 09:46:35 AM
So that is SAGE just announced that the R0 for the UK has just increased and is now between 0.7 and 1. And that is not factoring in the changes since Monday. Happy lockdown!

I may be wrong about this but as far as I can see the R value must always be retrospective since data on infections is only obtained from symptomatic patients and symptoms take,on average about five days to develop. The most accurate data would be obtained from the difference between deaths and average numbers of deaths as in the ONS figures which take about 3 weeks to show up ie. the time between infection and death.
If there is an upturn in infections due to lifting of restrictions it will be about a week before it shows up in the R value and about 3 before the best estimate of R is obtained.
By then the sh1t may well have hit the fan and Boris might find it difficult to reverse the changes.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-r-rate-rise-cases-deaths-care-homes-a9517696.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinS on May 16, 2020, 09:55:11 AM
I may be wrong about this but as far as I can see the R value must always be retrospective since data on infections is only obtained from symptomatic patients and symptoms take,on average about five days to develop.

Spot on I believe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 16, 2020, 09:59:03 AM
I may be wrong about this but as far as I can see the R value must always be retrospective since data on infections is only obtained from symptomatic patients and symptoms take,on average about five days to develop.

Spot on I believe.
So when Hancock says they are constantly keeping an eye on R he is talking about last week's R.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on May 16, 2020, 10:05:56 AM
I may be wrong about this but as far as I can see the R value must always be retrospective

Correct, but also need to understand it is not a direct measurement but rather an estimate (aka "indirect measurement). Simple explanation about half-way down this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194
More detailed stuff from the horse's mouth here:
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/tackling-covid-19/nowcasting-and-forecasting-of-covid-19/
And real hard-core stuff here:
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
(Lead author on that last paper is the guy who was on "More or Less" earlier this week)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kenneve on May 16, 2020, 10:38:04 AM
There has been much talk about deaths in care homes and giving the impression that they have all been left in limbo.
I can only say that my experience is a little different
My wife, who has Alzheimer's, has been a resident of the local care home for upwards of 2 years. This is a private housing association care home, but operated for and on behalf of my local council.

They started lockdown about 1 week before the government regulations came into force, so I have not seen her since that time, although they have set up Facetime calls, which is some comfort.
There are currently no cases of C-19 within the home and they seem to have adequate stocks of PPE.

The latest Care Quality Commission report published Sept 19 gave 'Good' ratings for all 5 review areas, so I am happy that she is being adequately cared for.
Both of us are in our 80's and there comes a time in life, when we can only thank our lucky stars the such care homes exist!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 16, 2020, 10:41:25 AM
There has been much talk about deaths in care homes and giving the impression that they have all been left in limbo.
I can only say that my experience is a little different
My wife, who has Alzheimer's, has been a resident of the local care home for upwards of 2 years. This is a private housing association care home, but operated for and on behalf of my local council.

They started lockdown about 1 week before the government regulations came into force, so I have not seen her since that time, although they have set up Facetime calls, which is some comfort.
There are currently no cases of C-19 within the home and they seem to have adequate stocks of PPE.

The latest Care Quality Commission report published Sept 19 gave 'Good' ratings for all 5 review areas, so I am happy that she is being adequately cared for.
Both of us are in our 80's and there comes a time in life, when we can only thank our lucky stars the such care homes exist!

Great to hear that. Hope you both stay safe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 16, 2020, 10:53:09 AM
I may be wrong about this but as far as I can see the R value must always be retrospective

Correct, but also need to understand it is not a direct measurement but rather an estimate (aka "indirect measurement).
And real hard-core stuff here:
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/

Call that hard core? (Scroll to last page)
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Adjusting-COVID-19-deaths-to-account-for-reporting-delay.pdf

What I'm getting at is that if Johnson changes direction he's driving blindfold for about a week and he doesn't have much of a margin of error to begin with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 16, 2020, 11:03:30 AM
My ex is in a care home. She has a severe mobility issue and was moved there at the beginning of the year from hospital. The care home went into lockdown well before the country did, and so far there have been no cases. My son and daughter talk to her regularly by phone (my daughter sent a mobile phone in for her use so they can speak as long as need be).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 16, 2020, 11:11:50 AM
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 16, 2020, 11:35:29 AM
I may be wrong about this but as far as I can see the R value must always be retrospective

Correct, but also need to understand it is not a direct measurement but rather an estimate (aka "indirect measurement).
And real hard-core stuff here:
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
(Lead author on that last paper is the guy who was on "More or Less" earlier this week)
Just had a look at the results in your link there and noticed that the London figure is approx. half that for the rest of the country. Any explanations anywhere?
Difference even more marked in "number of infections" especially in "daily infections"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 16, 2020, 01:42:29 PM
Here is Canadian video showing just how infectious the virus is.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1960123
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 16, 2020, 03:09:28 PM
And the Darwin Award goes to:-
https://londonlovesbusiness.com/hundreds-gather-in-hyde-park-for-london-coronavirus-lockdown-protest/
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-lockdown-protests-uk-london-hyde-park-5g-conspiracy-theories-a9518506.html
 Added 2nd link
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 16, 2020, 04:30:18 PM
And the Darwin Award goes to:-
https://londonlovesbusiness.com/hundreds-gather-in-hyde-park-for-london-coronavirus-lockdown-protest/

I mentioned it on the 'Stay at Home' thread here, a few days ago...

https://clubjazz.org/forum/index.php?topic=11985.msg82478#msg82478

there's a copy of the local flyer there if you want to see what was on offer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on May 16, 2020, 04:43:07 PM
And the Darwin Award goes to:-
https://londonlovesbusiness.com/hundreds-gather-in-hyde-park-for-london-coronavirus-lockdown-protest/
Spray them with smart water then if they turn up at hospital they can *#@% off!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 16, 2020, 06:32:59 PM
The objective for the lockdown was to protect the NHS from being overloaded, by reducing the rate at which the population was catching the virus. The NHS now has spare capacity, the most vulnerable have been at identified and measures put in place to help protect them from the virus (although life in isolation might get boring after a while) so the rest of the population, who are at much lower risk of developing problems, can get on with life (don't forget the link I posted a few days ago which suggests that 1/4 of the population may have already had their encounter with the virus). Every day in lockdown increases the size of the national debt which our children, or their children, eventually have to pay off. Westminster has realised this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on May 16, 2020, 06:55:36 PM
The objective for the lockdown was to protect the NHS from being overloaded, by reducing the rate at which the population was catching the virus. The NHS now has spare capacity, the most vulnerable have been at identified and measures put in place to help protect them from the virus (although life in isolation might get boring after a while) so the rest of the population, who are at much lower risk of developing problems, can get on with life (don't forget the link I posted a few days ago which suggests that 1/4 of the population may have already had their encounter with the virus). Every day in lockdown increases the size of the national debt which our children, or their children, eventually have to pay off. Westminster has realised this.
Hundreds of thousands - if not millions - will lose their jobs in the following recession..  If you are poor , you are more at risk of ill health and death.. 

Trump may be an idiot  but "it's the economy, stupid" (Bill Clinton) which matters in the end.
 If UK GDP falls 5% and stays at that level, goodbye subsidies to all sorts of things.. ....and people...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 16, 2020, 06:57:24 PM
IOM don't mess around. A guy was offered a lift to the shop by a mate in his car. Police stopped them and chap is now serving six weeks in prison!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 16, 2020, 07:00:11 PM
I reckon world governments will just write it all off and print money to redress the balance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 16, 2020, 07:28:05 PM
I reckon world governments will just write it all off and print money to redress the balance.

That's what's happening, Bank of England is the biggest buyer of the current rounds of Government bonds. When all the sovereign banks are doing the same, it doesn't count. If there's no danger of inflation, they can just keep printing cash.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 16, 2020, 09:04:41 PM
Quantitative easing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 17, 2020, 08:55:08 AM
Boris Johnson said, in the past couple of days, that austerity will not be a means of balancing the books after Covid-19. As I said earlier, world governments will just draw a line in their account books and start from scratch. The whole world is in the same position. A reset without changing currency rates or inflation, and it all goes away. After all, what is money other than a promise. And we all know how good governments are at keeping promises.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 17, 2020, 12:47:15 PM
The objective for the lockdown was to protect the NHS from being overloaded, by reducing the rate at which the population was catching the virus. The NHS now has spare capacity, the most vulnerable have been at identified and measures put in place to help protect them from the virus (although life in isolation might get boring after a while) so the rest of the population, who are at much lower risk of developing problems, can get on with life (don't forget the link I posted a few days ago which suggests that 1/4 of the population may have already had their encounter with the virus). Every day in lockdown increases the size of the national debt which our children, or their children, eventually have to pay off. Westminster has realised this.
Tens of thousands of lives and  billions of pounds could have been saved if appropriate interventions had been made sooner. -
Cancellation of sporting events Cheltenham week and European football, especially when Covid-19 was widespread in Spain, Six nations rugby.
Increased vigilance at airports particularly with passengers from SE Asia, Italy and Spain.
Testing and tracing of contacts of those affected.
Earlier application of social distancing.
Earlier imposition of lockdown as soon as virus got out of hand.
An earlier lockdown would have meant a lower, earlier peak and a quicker recovery.
Westminster seems intent on easing the lockdown in order that our economy does not suffer relative to those of other countries which are easing their lockdowns but UK deaths are still running at about 500 per day whereas those of other countries are less than 100.(many well under)
The UK does not yet have a sufficient testing tracing and isolation process in place.
They seem only obsessed with numbers of tests but the tests are not targetted, many are not even returned.
Testing, tracing and isolation is vital.
Without it properly in place, Westminster is in danger of making the same mistakes again and although the NHS has spare capacity, many of the frontline workers are mentally exhausted.

[Links removed by Admin]
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 17, 2020, 06:31:24 PM
Tens of thousands of lives and  billions of pounds could have been saved if appropriate interventions had been made sooner. -
I agree that firm action a month or so earlier would have made a big difference to the spread of the virus. However, January was spent trying to nail down Brexit. Boris then spent February celebrating that achievement. When March arrived he finally discovered there was something more urgent. It's not helped by the cabinet being filled with people rewarded for supporting Boris rather than appointing the most competent people available. Introducing quarantine (actually unsupervised self-isolation) for people arriving in UK after the end of May is very much a case of shutting the stable door after the horses are over the horizon.

Perhaps dreaming about Brexit can also be blamed for the absence of a suitably large strategic stockpile of protective clothing. It's not as if the warnings weren't given (by Bill Gates among others) but the government was distracted by other things and the warning wasn't heeded. Heads should roll but, more likely, people will get promoted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 18, 2020, 01:41:32 PM
I don't know where Nicola Sturgeon finds the patience to deal with some of these questions.

One of them couldn't seem to grasp how you could go for a test if you are self isolating with symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 18, 2020, 02:13:14 PM
I thought that was a valid question. My wife had just asked me that half an hour before the journalist asked it.
Nicola told a porky today. She told one lady not to put words in her mouth about the Nike event, saying she had said they could not Track and Trace if the patient does not mention the contact. Nicola did say that last Friday. I had just explained that to my wife as well by saying if the patient says they were in contact with A, B and C you can trace them but if they don't mention D, E and F you cannot trace them.
Just to explain, my wife is not Blonde; it is just that she does not follow the broadcasts until something raises her interest!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 18, 2020, 07:34:10 PM
I thought that was a valid question. My wife had just asked me that half an hour before the journalist asked it.

Perhaps it's been explained on the news reports down here too many times. Several hundred times, I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 18, 2020, 08:19:26 PM
Bee aware
Spray safe
Save hives

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 19, 2020, 08:49:00 AM
Woman and family who drove 1.5 hours to beach is angry that others were there !

https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/19/woman-who-drove-beach-shocked-people-who-did-12723866/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on May 19, 2020, 09:56:26 AM
Woman and family who drove 1.5 hours to beach is angry that others were there !

https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/19/woman-who-drove-beach-shocked-people-who-did-12723866/

Yeah I saw her on the BBC News on Sunday. She needs to take a long hard look at herself!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 19, 2020, 12:18:20 PM
Tuesday ONS update
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending8may2020

Up to the 17 May 2020, estimate 62,900 excess deaths (above average) related to the #Covid19UK 19 pandemic in the UK.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1262409784470495234
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 19, 2020, 04:00:22 PM
Glad I live in Scotland where the rules are pretty straightforward.
Here's a clarification of the English rules by poet Brian Bilston.


NOTES AND CLARIFICATIONS
Let’s be very clear about this,
you should stay inside,
except for those occasions
when you go outside.

You should work from home
unless, that is, you cannot;
in which case you should work
in other places,

avoiding all public transport
(unless you have to use it)
and the shared, confined spaces
in which you work.

A socially distanced meeting
is permissible with ONE person
(possibly more, maybe fewer)
from another household,

but this must only take place
either in a park, on desolate wasteland,
or in the BBQs and Grills section
of a local garden centre.

Clarity and precision are vital
at this time. Please see
the accompanying 50-page booklet
for further details.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 19, 2020, 09:17:27 PM
So the Tracing app is full of security flaws and risks the privacy of those that download it. What a surprise. Just like every other bit of software, the NHS has developed off their own back.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52725810 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52725810)

And finally, today, the government and Professor Dame Angela McLean have finally admitted that the change from Testing and Tracing was abandoned early on due to the lack of available tests, not due to "the science".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 19, 2020, 09:23:37 PM
Wonder what the next big flop will be?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 19, 2020, 09:47:12 PM
Wonder what the next big flop will be?

More Brian Bilston?

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Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 19, 2020, 09:50:44 PM
Only two parties to blame for this virus,  China for hiding it for so long, and the WHO for helping them to hide it.......
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: springswood on May 20, 2020, 07:02:03 AM
At last the answer to a question I've wanted to know for months now. When they say wash hands frequently what does that mean?
6 to 10 times a day.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52720089

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: TnTkr on May 20, 2020, 07:18:41 AM
In my workplace we have quite strict instructions to was hands well with warm water and soap every time:
- when you come to office
- when you visit restroom
- when you blow nose, cough or sneeze
- before and after eating
- before and after a meeting
- when you go to another section of the factory area
- when you leave the office
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 20, 2020, 01:58:28 PM
The government knew how important mass testing was when they abandoned the policy in March.

Despite the Deputy CMO saying that the science dictated that the system was 'not appropriate' for the UK at the time, at the daily briefing a few days ago, the Chief Scientific Advisor to the MoD admitted that community testing was suspended due to availability of tests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 20, 2020, 02:00:56 PM
Despite the Deputy CMO saying that the science dictated that the system was 'not appropriate' for the UK at the time, at the daily briefing a few days ago, the Chief Scientific Advisor to the MoD admitted that community testing was suspended due to availability of tests.
Yesterday, to be precise 19/5/20.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 20, 2020, 02:32:04 PM
Yesterday, to be precise 19/5/20.

Thank you Jocko. One day drifts into the next, I don't know what day it is these days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 20, 2020, 02:47:55 PM
Yep and they completely blew any chance they had of keeping a hold of tracing contacts by allowing  Cheltenham Week, Liverpool/ Atletico Madrid and other sporting and entertainment events.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 20, 2020, 04:18:37 PM
I started a coronavirus thread on another forum mid January saying this was coming,  most of the people on there disagreed with me - one even said he would eat his hat if I was right,  don't know if he had mayonnaise or ketchup with it.

It is easy to point out things and have opinions if you don't actually have to enact those decisions and live with the consequences.   Lord Jonathon Sumption,  former head of supreme court ( till 2018 ) said in a recent interview that 'government has overacted to virus,  it hardly affects younger people and the older ones that get it would have died soon anyway' - imagine a politician saying that ?

A study in USA says that 40% of jobs may not come back after this virus shutdown,  and there is gonna be a hell of a recession - bigger than 2008,  imagine younger people seeing how older ones are being protected at the expense of their future,  would you be happy if you were under 50 seeing your future going down the gurgler.  No wonder younger ones are not happy. 

No good saying Labour would have handled it differently - they would have got the same advice, but the difference is that there would have been no money in the pot,  remember Liam Byrne - Labour first secretary to the treasury when Labour left government in 2010 - left a note in treasury saying 'sorry, no money left,  but good luck'..

We may never know how many people have died because of the lockdown stopping other services - they did not die from the virus but the effect the virus lockdown had on services - and lots of people may lose their jobs and  homes when the coming recession hits - and I guess it won't be the older 'I'm all right Jack' people.

The economy may not seem important until it crashes,  then it is very important.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 20, 2020, 06:16:04 PM
So basically you are saying, forget human lives - save the economy. Am I correct?
Sounds a bit like Lord Jonathon Sumption!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on May 20, 2020, 07:35:24 PM

Not a single case of COVID-19 have been diagnosed in London or the South East from swabs taken on Monday, May 18.   

"Public Health England testing data from yesterday shows that not a single case of COVID-19 have yet been diagnosed in London or the South East from swabs taken on Monday, May 18.   

The regions are the two most populated in the country and are home to a combined 18million people - almost a third of the British population.

Officials have played down the numbers, suggesting that they may be the result of a technical hitch known to have happened over the weekend, and explaining that they will rise in the coming days as more results come back. The number should not be interpreted to mean the epidemic is tailing off, they said.

The numbers also showed that only 79 cases were diagnosed across the whole of England - this, too, will inevitably rise in the coming days as more people who were swabbed on Monday test positive. A total of 2,412 people yesterday received positive results from samples taken between May 13 and 18.

But the hopeful figure comes as the number of people catching the virus in Britain is believed to be falling rapidly.  Research by the University of Cambridge and Public Health England last week suggested that only 24 people each day are catching COVID-19 in London.

And another expert at the University of Oxford, Professor Carl Heneghan, said that the UK could be on track to hit zero new coronavirus deaths in June. Professor Heneghan, who has been following the statistics closely throughout the outbreak, said: 'I think by the end of June we'll be looking at the data and finding it difficult to find people with this illness, if current trends continue.' "

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-new-cases-london-public-health-england-covid-19-a9523876.html







Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 21, 2020, 08:57:44 AM
So basically you are saying, forget human lives - save the economy. Am I correct?
Sounds a bit like Lord Jonathon Sumption!

No,  but if you are in government you need to balance everything ( cost / risk / benefit assessment ),  including the economy and jobs ( which are interlinked anyway ) against risk,  just like they used to do in military campaigns like 'D day' where they balanced possible casualties against the benefits of shortening the war and saving lives ( on both sides ).   There is no way we want the economy to tank and put younger people ( <50 )  out of jobs - every country is balancing the economy against deaths that is why they are all straining at the leash to end their lockdowns ( and Sweden never really had one ) - you also need to balance the rights of people to move around,  and it is hard for younger folks to understand why they are being quarantined when majority could get symptoms of no worse than a common cold.   Every day in normal times hospitals make decisions on the treatment of people,  that is exactly why the frailty index is used to assess patients - basically to check whether intervention will be successful and yes I'm afraid 'cost effective' ( back to money, budgets and economy again ). https://www.england.nhs.uk/ourwork/clinical-policy/older-people/frailty/efi/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 21, 2020, 09:12:54 AM
why they are being quarantined when majority could get symptoms of no worse than a common cold.
Tell that to the 400+ between the ages of 15 and 44 who have died, or those of a similar age who have been left with lasting scarring on their lungs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 21, 2020, 10:17:07 AM
remember Liam Byrne - Labour first secretary to the treasury when Labour left government in 2010 - left a note in treasury saying 'sorry, no money left,  but good luck'..

Time may be clouding your memory, but you are mixing up two stories there. What Liam Byrne's note said was, "I'm afraid there is no money." It was Tory Reginald Maudling's note to the incoming Jim Callaghan that said, "Good luck, old cock... Sorry to leave it in such a mess."

As you well know, it is traditional for outgoing treasury ministers to leave a private, humorous memo for the incoming recruits. To use that note in the way they did was wrong, and completely disrespectful of tradition. In any case, Byrne's note was actually technically correct, as the country has had "no money" since the Napoleonic wars, when the national debt was first established.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 21, 2020, 10:21:57 AM
There is something going wrong with testing.

177,000+ tests was the headline figure for tests conducted yesterday, paraded as the highest ever. However, when you look at the actual number of people tested, the number is around 60,000 - the lowest for over a week.

The figures for the number of people tested for 18th May was withheld, and is still not available.

What's going on?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 21, 2020, 10:29:12 AM
remember Liam Byrne - Labour first secretary to the treasury when Labour left government in 2010 - left a note in treasury saying 'sorry, no money left,  but good luck'..

Time may be clouding your memory, but you are mixing up two stories there. What Liam Byrne's note said was, "I'm afraid there is no money." It was Tory Reginald Maudling's note to the incoming Jim Callaghan that said, "Good luck, old cock... Sorry to leave it in such a mess."


Looks like time may be clouding the BBC memory as well - just sayin' 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-24173270/liam-byrne-no-money-left-note-was-a-mistake

Quote from BBC article.

"Dear Chief Secretary, I'm afraid that there is no money. Kind regards and good luck."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 21, 2020, 10:45:53 AM
why they are being quarantined when majority could get symptoms of no worse than a common cold.
Tell that to the 400+ between the ages of 15 and 44 who have died, or those of a similar age who have been left with lasting scarring on their lungs.

15 to 44 years olds make up about 25% of UK population ( about 17.5 million ) - so 400 is a miniscule number compered to that,  and as I said the government cannot base their planning on such a low number when it has to juggle everything else, including unemployment, economy, depth of coming recession and how many people are dying because of lockdowns effect on all other UK medical services,  including mental health.   Life is not a risk free journey and never has been,  but is much safer now than it has ever been.  As the WHO spokes man said in a backhanded compliment to British NHS, they are excellent at keeping frail people alive so we expect UK covid-19 deaths to be high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on May 21, 2020, 11:01:19 AM
There is something going wrong with testing.

177,000+ tests was the headline figure for tests conducted yesterday, paraded as the highest ever. However, when you look at the actual number of people tested, the number is around 60,000 - the lowest for over a week.

The figures for the number of people tested for 18th May was withheld, and is still not available.

What's going on?

Double counted. (like gloves.. normal people count in pairs, politicians in ones.)
Test duplicated in error.
All tests faulty and had to be repeated.

All tests faulty and repeats faulty hence no figures for 18th May   (my guess)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 21, 2020, 11:08:48 AM
Also, the number of tests in a day include tests posted out. So if they test 60,000 and post out 117,000........
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 21, 2020, 11:18:09 AM
15 to 44 years olds make up about 25% of UK population ( about 17.5 million ) - so 400 is a miniscule number compered to that,  and as I said the government cannot base their planning on such a low number when it has to juggle everything else, including unemployment, economy, depth of coming recession and how many people are dying because of lockdowns effect on all other UK medical services,  including mental health.

Every life has a value, insurance companies know that, and governments have to weigh up the different aspects of policy decisions on the population.

My problem with this government is their demonstrable failure to protect the public, and the way things are going, the economy might go down the pan too. Many other governments around the world have managed to avoid excess deaths of the scale in the UK, and are now opening up their economies now that cases of the virus are under control.

This government is itching to get the country back to normal, but the situation is not yet under control. I hope that it soon is, and that this surreptitious encouragement to break contact controls is not premature.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 21, 2020, 11:37:08 AM
There is something going wrong with testing.

177,000+ tests was the headline figure for tests conducted yesterday, paraded as the highest ever. However, when you look at the actual number of people tested, the number is around 60,000 - the lowest for over a week.

The figures for the number of people tested for 18th May was withheld, and is still not available.

What's going on?

Hope I'm wrong again but I suspect the Government is obsessed with pushing up the (apparent) numbers at the expense of effectiveness.
I greatly fear they will adopt the same attitude to the track and trace systems - claiming to have ever increasing numbers  of trained operatives when in fact they will be call-centre workers on minimum wage with minimal training.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 21, 2020, 11:52:59 AM
I heard a report yesterday that there was one trainer for a considerable class and when the instructor was asked questions it was all, "we will sort that out" or "once you are on the job that will become clear" and other such Teflon answers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 21, 2020, 12:20:33 PM
I heard a report yesterday that there was one trainer for a considerable class and when the instructor was asked questions it was all, "we will sort that out" or "once you are on the job that will become clear" and other such Teflon answers.

I'm not at all surprised by that, but I really do hope that the system is effective and not just for show. It needs to have public trust if people are going to comply with any government directions arising from the tracing procedures.

It is absolutely essential that the system is working as soon as possible, the lockdown has all but broken down in many parts of England. Without some sort of infection controls to replace it, we will be in for a rough ride. Relaxation of lockdowns in other countries have shown that the virus is clearly still bubbling under, but on the whole, their governments have been willing to take drastic containment measures where necessary, and the public compliant.

I suspect that the UK governemnt will have a job on, if they do need to get the genie back in the bottle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 21, 2020, 12:44:56 PM

Without some sort of infection controls to replace it, we will be in for a rough ride. Relaxation of lockdowns in other countries have shown that the virus is clearly still bubbling under, but on the whole, their governments have been willing to take drastic containment measures where necessary, and the public compliant.

I suspect that the UK governemnt will have a job on, if they do need to get the genie back in the bottle.
As you say I hope the UK government is not just going through the motions.

Some time ago I posted an article " Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now"
These linked articles are well worth a read

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-learning-how-to-dance-b8420170203e

Edit added second article
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 21, 2020, 03:13:55 PM
So Nicola has announced the road map for Scotland easing out of lockdown, and I am pleased to see it is much more gradual than Boris' "plan". Apart from commencing phase one at the end of the month there are no hard dates but these will happen as the virus allows.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making-scotlands-route-map-through-out-crisis/ (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making-scotlands-route-map-through-out-crisis/)

And for schools.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/initial-impact-assessment-strategic-framework-reopening-schools-early-learning-childcare-settings-scotland/ (https://www.gov.scot/publications/initial-impact-assessment-strategic-framework-reopening-schools-early-learning-childcare-settings-scotland/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 21, 2020, 03:45:12 PM
So Nicola has announced the road map for Scotland easing out of lockdown, and I am pleased to see it is much more gradual than Boris' "plan"
Presentation so much better than Boris' waffle.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/scotland-lockdown-rules-nicola-sturgeon-speech-uk-update-plan-end-date-exit-a9525926.html

https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/10/boriss-dangerous-lockdown-speech-blasted-sides-12683008/

Edit added link
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 21, 2020, 04:10:18 PM
So Nicola has announced the road map for Scotland easing out of lockdown, and I am pleased to see it is much more gradual than Boris' "plan". Apart from commencing phase one at the end of the month there are no hard dates but these will happen as the virus allows.

Maybe she has played enough of the rebel and defied Westminster a bit, but in the end she had to do the same. She is playing to Scottish electorate - she is so ambitious to be the first 'prime minister' of Scotland that everything else is just window dressing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: hemming on May 21, 2020, 04:39:16 PM
Is this getting away from the spirit of the site?
There must be other sites where this is more appropriate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 21, 2020, 04:43:32 PM
Latest theory gaining traction with medical professionals is that vitamin D deficiency in BAME in UK is responsible for a lot of their health problems, including why they are more likely to die from Covid-19.  The weaker sunlight in UK means that people with darker skin struggle to get adequate vitamin D from sunlight alone and need to take supplements every day.  British heart foundation even says that vit D deficiency results in coronary heart disease,  which is also prevalent among BAME

https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ph56/chapter/3-context

https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/behind-the-headlines/coronavirus/coronavirus-and-bame-patients
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on May 21, 2020, 05:50:42 PM
The vitamin D thing is definitely an issue for the BAME community because the dark skin inhibits absorption. I first came across this when I was diagnosed with Prostate Cancer (doing well thanks to the NHS) and the medics are trying to find out why BAME men are much more likely to get Prostate Cancer and vitamin D is one of many theories.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 21, 2020, 07:06:23 PM
I think London and its commuter catchment area hit the Covid-19 peak earlier as the virus spreads most easily when people are packed together. I had previously noted this report https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/over-25-of-the-uk-likely-to-have-had-covid-19-already/ which hypothesises that at least 1/4 of the UK population will have had an encounter with the virus (and the vast majority never noticed it). I would expect that the majority of those infected would be in London and its catchment so, perhaps, half the population of that area would have some level of immunity. This is a long way towards the herd immunity threshold and would explain why the number of new cases in that part of the country is relatively small.

The more rural areas, on the other hand, have seen a much lower rate of virus spreading so there's a much bigger reservoir of uninfected people waiting to catch the virus and the R number could stay above the "one" value for longer. Hence the concern of people in those areas over easing the lockdown too quickly or allowing internal tourism and the risk that they bring. However, a lot of those visitors may well have their antibodies and no longer be infectious. I see that the government has now ordered 10 million antibody tests which, in the fullness of time, should provide some clarity. I've also read that the immunity from flu vaccine only lasts about 6 months. If the immunity from Covid-19 behaves in a similar manner then people infected in March or thereabouts will become vulnerable in the autumn. However, immunity doesn't disappear overnight but just becomes less effective.

All the above doesn't help those in the high risk group. Life will continue to be constrained until either the virus disappears or effective vaccine / treatment arrives. However, if it becomes evident that those with the right antibodies are not active spreaders then it should be possible to drop the social distancing requirements for such people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 22, 2020, 11:58:17 AM
I knew there was something fishy, I'll just put this here. If you don't like it, don't read it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/tens-thousands-coronavirus-tests-have-double-counted-officials/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 22, 2020, 12:04:26 PM
I knew there was something fishy, I'll just put this here. If you don't like it, don't read it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/tens-thousands-coronavirus-tests-have-double-counted-officials/
My first thought was unbelievable. But I can believe it.

Sounds like something John Crace would write.

The tests also need to be targetted and used sensibly not just to obtain high numbers.

"Nicola Stonehouse, Professor of Molecular Virology at the University of Leeds, said: “I don’t think it’s helpful to be simply focused on the numbers of tests. We should concentrate on using our testing intelligently and combining testing with contact tracing."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on May 22, 2020, 02:40:42 PM
"Hundreds of thousands of coronavirus tests sent to people's homes have been counted but never returned to labs, PHE's testing boss has suggested."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347479/Britain-abandoned-coronavirus-testing-March-outbreak-BIG.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 22, 2020, 03:02:29 PM
"Hundreds of thousands of coronavirus tests sent to people's homes have been counted but never returned to labs, PHE's testing boss has suggested."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347479/Britain-abandoned-coronavirus-testing-March-outbreak-BIG.html
What a bl**dy waste.

[Links removed by Admin]

https://www.better2know.co.uk/shop/products/home-testing-kits/covid-19-test

And even more than the money the fact that they could have been put to good use
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 24, 2020, 08:37:58 AM
Here's a good article about the risk from the virus https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52758024 .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 24, 2020, 09:31:16 AM
I am in the high-risk category. Male, over 70, obese, underlying health issues. My wife is even higher risk as she is shielding due to receiving immunotherapy. However I measure the risks (we both do), I still shop but only in big stores and with social distancing, we both go out for walks together, with extreme social distancing (we cross the road to avoid other people and touch nothing) and we wash thoroughly on our return and nothing comes into the house which isn't cleaned or quarantined. We wash after handling and disposing of any mail (I even virus check our email  ;D ).
My risks of catching Covid-19 are slim. I am more likely to die of a stroke or heart attack. Life has to go on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 24, 2020, 09:58:43 AM
Here's a good article about the risk from the virus https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52758024 .

This is pretty much what I have been saying all along, we need to be more careful than usual but life never has and never will be risk free.  When I said on here governments needs to balance other services and healthcare and economy against SARS-Cov-2 risk I was pretty much condemned as unfeeling and heartless.  I posted stats from Canada earlier in thread about 80% of their deaths from Covid-19 in care homes and 90% of deaths being people over 60. That stat is worse than ours as far as care homes are concerned.  Only after the dust as settled and the fog of war has cleared will we ( maybe ) know how each country has coped ( or not ) - The news may even leak out of China about the huge number of people that died there, even a single party communist state cannot keep a lid on information for ever.

One thing is for sure China has come out of this very badly and been shown that despite its sleek modern veneer and strong economic growth ( starting from a very low base though, and which was slowing drastically years before this virus anyway ) - it is still a one part communist state - and a bad member of the world community.  I have always tried to avoid the 'made in China' label,  it is not easy as manufacturers can be very mendacious with their labeling and a lot of the parts in most things may originate in China even if the whole thing does not.  This virus may even result in regime change in China as the world shuns them, the economy collapses and social unrest gets out of hand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 24, 2020, 11:32:03 AM
Here's a good article about the risk from the virus https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52758024 .
The odds look quite good in the article but the situation only applies when conditions are as we are just now with the spread of the disease more or less controlled.
In the diagram of 400 dots the risk looks very slight when looked at as a whole and the dots are static but things don't look so great if you are one of the dots surrounding the black one.
 Once the dots start moving about you have a much increased chance of meeting a black one.
You need to be able to find, follow and isolate the black dots before you let the dots start moving again or the spread of the virus will take off again.

Have another look at
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
 (skim down to about section 13)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 24, 2020, 11:36:03 AM
I am in the high-risk category. Male, over 70, obese, underlying health issues. My wife is even higher risk as she is shielding due to receiving immunotherapy. However I measure the risks (we both do), I still shop but only in big stores and with social distancing, we both go out for walks together, with extreme social distancing (we cross the road to avoid other people and touch nothing) and we wash thoroughly on our return and nothing comes into the house which isn't cleaned or quarantined. We wash after handling and disposing of any mail (I even virus check our email  ;D ).
My risks of catching Covid-19 are slim. I am more likely to die of a stroke or heart attack. Life has to go on.
Keep it up Jocko.
It's not just about your chances of catching Covid 19 . It's about stopping the spread of the disease going exponential again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 24, 2020, 06:03:03 PM
The odds look quite good in the article but the situation only applies when conditions are as we are just now with the spread of the disease more or less controlled.
In the diagram of 400 dots the risk looks very slight when looked at as a whole and the dots are static but things don't look so great if you are one of the dots surrounding the black one.
 Once the dots start moving about you have a much increased chance of meeting a black one.
You need to be able to find, follow and isolate the black dots before you let the dots start moving again or the spread of the virus will take off again.
How well it can spread will depend on how many people have already acquired some form of immunity. The Manchester University study (see link I posted previously) suggested that at least one quarter of the UK population has already had an encounter with the virus and I wonder if that's an underestimate. Here's one person who can't figure out when his encounter was https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52762939 but perhaps he didn't read this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449. Some retesting (if samples weren't chucked away) might well confirm that the virus was here before people were looking for (or had the capabiity to identify) the virus. The French did a retest which confirmed a case there in December https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554 .

So why, if the virus was here a month or so earlier than officially thought, why did it take so long to cause a big spike in sick people (the excess deaths only appeared from mid-March)? My hypothesis is that it was initially concentrated among the younger and more healthy people who would be more likely to be mixing during mid-winter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 24, 2020, 08:26:14 PM

How well it can spread will depend on how many people have already acquired some form of immunity. The Manchester University study (see link I posted previously) suggested that at least one quarter of the UK population has already had an encounter with the virus and I wonder if that's an underestimate. Here's one person who can't figure out when his encounter was https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52762939 but perhaps he didn't read this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449. Some retesting (if samples weren't chucked away) might well confirm that the virus was here before people were looking for (or had the capabiity to identify) the virus. The French did a retest which confirmed a case there in December https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554 .

So why, if the virus was here a month or so earlier than officially thought, why did it take so long to cause a big spike in sick people (the excess deaths only appeared from mid-March)? My hypothesis is that it was initially concentrated among the younger and more healthy people who would be more likely to be mixing during mid-winter.
Other studies estimate  the acquired immunity much lower. We will only know when widespread antibody testing becomes available.
The BBC medical correspondent Fergus Walsh would presumably be aware of other BBC articles.
Even if 25% had acquired immunity it's still a long way  short of the 70% or so required to impart herd immunity.
This would mean that approximately twice as many people would have to acquire immunity as have acquired it  up to now.
Does this mean we have to have a further twice as many die as have died so far?
Probably not if the old and vulnerable could be protected (but this hasn't worked out well so far and there's always the chance of leaks) and infection restricted to the young and resilient.

How long would it take to reach about 70% immunity?
Presumably the rate of spread will slow as more people become immune.

We don't yet know if people with antibodies have immunity or how long immunity would last.

All in all I'm not convinced that this is a viable strategy.
I think I would prefer the strategy outlined in the three articles I've posted where the initial peak is "hammered" down until the transmission  rate is well below 1 and then gradually release the lockdown keeping it monitored so that it remains below 1 decreasiing or increasing restrictions as appropriate until a vaccine is available.
This however requires constant monitoring by testing tracking and tracing.
To embark on a release of restrictions without a reliable monitoring system in place (as our government appears to be about to do) is madness unless their intention is to cull the old and infirm (and a sizable number of the not so old as well.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 24, 2020, 08:38:56 PM
Pascal Soriot, chief executive of AstraZeneca, was on Andrew Marr this morning and he was saying they are in a rush to test the new vaccine before there are not enough cases to test it on. They are having to look to Russia and Brazil to carry out tests as the UK is fast running out of infected people to make testing effective.
They cannot vaccinate someone then expose them to the virus. The scientists have just to let the vaccinated and control group go out into the community and see how many get infected. And the chances of that happening get less and less each day.
Perhaps when the second peak comes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on May 25, 2020, 04:53:27 AM
"Doctors condemn secrecy over false negative Covid-19 tests
Medical research has found that as many as 29% of swab tests produce the wrong result"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/25/doctors-condemn-secrecy-over-false-negative-covid-19-tests
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 25, 2020, 05:26:53 PM
Just watching the DC interview. Was he on OJs defense team?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on May 25, 2020, 07:34:39 PM
Take the new official UK Government sight test for driving. Just drive to Barnard Castle and back. Drive go ok? You’re good to go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on May 26, 2020, 10:48:22 AM
Take the new official UK Government sight test for driving. Just drive to Barnard Castle and back. Drive go ok? You’re good to go.

Even by recent standaads in political life, that has got to insult everyone with more than one active braincell..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 26, 2020, 11:01:05 AM
Well done Junior minister Douglas Ross. At least some in government have standards.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 26, 2020, 11:44:02 AM
1922 Committee have got the knives out now.
Sir Roger Gale MP
"I want the 1922 Committee to put pressure on the PM. They need to say that this has gone too far and there is huge public backlash in what has happened & the way it has been handled. The time I think, has come for Mr Cummings to resign or for the PM to dispense of his services."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 26, 2020, 12:39:58 PM
Sorry to interrupt thread on Dominic Cummings' indiscretions but posting the Tuesday ONS report for week 20 we. 15 May

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending15may2020.

The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 15 May 2020 (Week 20) was 14,573; this was 3,380 lower than Week 18, 1,916 more than Week 19 and 4,385 more than the five-year average.
 The early May Bank Holiday contributed to both the decrease in the number of deaths registered in Week 19 and the increase in the number of deaths registered in Week 20, as deaths were unlikely to be registered on Friday 8 May. Next week’s report will allow a better assessment of recent trends in the number of all-cause deaths and deaths related to COVID.

From Evening Standard
The number of coronavirus deaths passed 47,000 in the UK as ministers faced growing accusations today that people may have died because of the decision to hold this year’s Cheltenham Festival and a Liverpool Champions League game .

As the epidemic took off in the UK in March, major sporting events were still being allowed by the Government despite being cancelled in other countries.

This now appears to be one of a series of blunders which has led to the UK having one of the worst, if not the highest, death toll so far in Europe from the killer virus.

The real death toll from coronavirus is believed to be even higher with the number of “excess deaths” during the epidemic now 53,960 higher when compared to the five-year fatality average.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-death-toll-uk-ons-figures-a4450351.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 26, 2020, 03:12:48 PM
Stephen Kinnock drove from South Wales to London for his dads birthday, and as far as I am aware is still Labour MP for Aberavon.......

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/29/stephen-kinnock-targeted-by-police-for-visiting-father-neil
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 26, 2020, 03:23:35 PM
Stephen Kinnock drove from South Wales to London for his dads birthday, and as far as I am aware is still Labour MP for Aberavon.......

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/29/stephen-kinnock-targeted-by-police-for-visiting-father-neil

Two wrongs don't make a right.

Opposition leaders have signed a joint letter calling for Cummings' resignation.
The letter was signed by:
    Ian Blackford, SNP
    Sir Ed Davey, Liberal Democrats
    Liz Saville Roberts, Plaid Cymru
    Colum Eastwood, Social Democratic and Labour party
    Caroline Lucas, Green party
    Stephen Farry, Alliance party.

and even Jackson Caarlaw thinks he should go.
"The Scottish conservative leader, Jackson Carlaw, has finally called for Dominic Cummings to resign, after coming under intense pressure while a number of his own MSPs expressed their strong support for their colleague Douglas Ross, who resigned as a UK government minister earlier today in protest at the Cummings row."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/26/uk-coronavirus-live-dominic-cummings-boris-johnson-latest-updates?page=with:block-5ecd25b48f0852d729950133#block-5ecd25b48f0852d729950133
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 26, 2020, 04:21:06 PM
Two wrongs don't make a right,  but also what is good for the goose is good for the gander,  It is obvious that a few people don't like Cummings,  including some Conservative MP's - I can understand why Blackford et al and the ragtag army of Libdums,  greens etc want rid of Cummings because he rained on their parade. 

I have no doubt that this post will quickly be removed,  as all pro-Boris posts of mine do, but the anti-Boris posts still get to stay...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 26, 2020, 04:29:45 PM
Research on seasonal  Coronavirus infections in Netherlands over last 35 years shows any immunity does not last longer than 6 months..

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341467148_Human_coronavirus_reinfection_dynamics_lessons_for_SARS-CoV-2

an extract from Spectator article pointing out deaths caused by the virus but not from it - deaths caused by shutting down of other services to concentrate on Covid-19.

'Meanwhile, the number of excess deaths since lockdown began has reached more than 60,000, leaving the cause of 13,000 not accounted for by the virus. Today, Public Health England joined a host of institutions and charities drawing attention to physical and mental health patients who have stopped receiving care because of lockdown measures and the significant scaleback of NHS services for non-Covid patients. This number is only expected to rise too, especially as long as strict medical guidance remains in place'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 26, 2020, 04:51:00 PM
Two wrongs don't make a right,  but also what is good for the goose is good for the gander,
Catherine Calderwood, Neil Ferguson?

Research on seasonal  Coronavirus infections in Netherlands over last 35 years shows any immunity does not last longer than 6 months..

Doesn't necessarily apply to this coronavirus.

'Meanwhile, the number of excess deaths since lockdown began has reached more than 60,000, leaving the cause of 13,000 not accounted for by the virus. Today, Public Health England joined a host of institutions and charities drawing attention to physical and mental health patients who have stopped receiving care because of lockdown measures and the significant scaleback of NHS services for non-Covid patients. This number is only expected to rise too, especially as long as strict medical guidance remains in place'.

Yes I find this frightening too but are a lot of these deaths not effectively caused by covid-19 too (only the death certificates don't necessarily have the cause of death as covid-19)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 26, 2020, 05:51:37 PM
doesn't necessarily apply to this coronavirus.

Yes,  but the common cold is a type of coronavirus and people never develop immunity to that.

Yes I find this frightening too but are a lot of these deaths not effectively caused by covid-19 too (only the death certificates don't necessarily have the cause of death as covid-19)?

You could say these deaths have happened because of the lockdown,  not because of the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 26, 2020, 06:00:14 PM
Research on seasonal  Coronavirus infections in Netherlands over last 35 years shows any immunity does not last longer than 6 months..
Then we had better keep passing the virus around in light doeses so that peoples' immunity systems keep in training. Otherwise there will be a second wave in late autumn onwards.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on May 26, 2020, 06:32:24 PM
Research on seasonal  Coronavirus infections in Netherlands over last 35 years shows any immunity does not last longer than 6 months..
Then we had better keep passing the virus around in light doeses so that peoples' immunity systems keep in training. Otherwise there will be a second wave in late autumn onwards.

A second lockdown is likely to be unenforceable if Cummings is still in post..

(and economically unaffordable..)..

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 26, 2020, 06:52:43 PM

You could say these deaths have happened because of the lockdown,  not because of the virus.
These deaths that you are referring to are not caused by the lockdown but by people, rightly or wrongly, being afraid to go to hospital for fear of catching the virus, or from hospitals being repurposed to cope with Covid patients.
I think most of the unexplained deaths are indirectly due to the virus (underlying causes) or untested patients whose deaths are attributed to some other affliction common in old age.

Research on seasonal  Coronavirus infections in Netherlands over last 35 years shows any immunity does not last longer than 6 months..
Then we had better keep passing the virus around in light doeses so that peoples' immunity systems keep in training. Otherwise there will be a second wave in late autumn onwards.
We do not yet know if immunity is obtained by having the disease or for how long any immunity lasts.
How do you ensure light doses?
Encouraging reinfection would allow the spread of the disease to go exponential again resulting in a second peak which might well overwhelm the NHS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 27, 2020, 10:10:33 AM
Just a thought about Test Trace and Isolate (Test and Protect for us Scots). If you are unfortunate enough to be one of the people who are asked to tell the tracers who you have been in contact with, remember to add Dominic Cummings to your list. Keep the toerag indoors forever, and after all, there is a fair chance you have met him while out and about!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Basil on May 27, 2020, 11:29:46 AM
Stephen Kinnock made the round trip from South Wales to London in one day, delivered some food and gifts and stayed at a safe distance from his parents. He admitted he broke the lockdown rules and was quite rightly warned by the police.

Dom Cummings was probably one of the main people involved in setting the rules but he hasn't admitted he did anything wrong and tried to concoct an elaborate story to cover up his indiscretions. The PM and other ministers have also backed up his version of events.

He went into the office after his wife first became ill, he then drove 260+ miles while his wife was displaying symptoms and claims he didn't make any stops on the 260+ journey (possibly because he wasn't spotted). A couple of weeks later he made a 30 mile trip to a local beauty spot "to test his eyesight" but needed to make two stops and decided to walk in the woods and sit by a river. The following day he made the 260+ mile trip back to London and "thinks" he stopped once for fuel.
 
Both of the above broke the lockdown rules but I think that's where the similarity ends..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 27, 2020, 11:44:36 AM
I guess a persons attitude to SK or DC breaking the rules depends on their political viewpoint, ie.  it is subjective, not objective...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 27, 2020, 11:52:26 AM
Personally, I think it would be a disaster if DC is forced out. As a Brexiteer, I want him as close to Boris as possible. But as far as lockdown goes, I think he should be turfed out as he has undermined the excellent work that you and I and our families have done to contain the infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 27, 2020, 12:23:13 PM
The UK has reached 546 fatalities / million from covid-19, and Italy is still on 545 / million, despite the Uk having about 3 weeks warning as compared to Italy.
Cummings has been orchestrating the Uk's response to the pandemic.
Forget about Cummings' hypocritical trip to Durham and eyesight tests at Barnard Castle. Shouldn't he be sacked for incompetence?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 27, 2020, 12:44:10 PM
I guess a persons attitude to SK or DC breaking the rules depends on their political viewpoint, ie.  it is subjective, not objective...

I fail to see why, they both broke the rules.

The difference is that Kinnock has no responsibility for Goverment policy, in that respect he is just another member of the public, and as an elected member of the House, he can't be sacked as his wrongdoing is not one of the criteria which would trigger the recall process. Kinnock was warned by the Police, I presume the same as any other individual would for a single offence, and after the act.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 27, 2020, 12:45:16 PM
Shouldn't he be sacked for incompetence?

Sturgeon did not sack Catherine Calderwood she backed her to stay in job,  Calderwood resigned when pressure became too much. 

Italy and UK have a similar problem with a lot of frail elderly people in population,  the WHO said they expected large death toll in the UK due to the NHS 'success' in keeping frail people alive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 27, 2020, 12:48:48 PM
I fail to see why, they both broke the rules.

As an elected MP Kinnock has a much bigger duty to show respect for law and order than any 'member of the public' ( after all Parliament makes our laws ) - Cummings was not elected and is not an MP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John A on May 27, 2020, 12:49:38 PM
I'm not sure why the Daily Mail has turned against DC, but they seem to have taken the mantle from the others.

It seems at times they try to spin everything, so PPE delivered is x million, till you read they count each glove individually in the x million. Not many one-handed carers I'd guess. So, bit by bit they're eroding our trust in them, (chief scientists as well as ministers) who decide the "guidelines" and make it therefore less and less likely we'll be the "herd" and follow them blindly, when so often they don't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 27, 2020, 12:56:43 PM
I guess a persons attitude to SK or DC breaking the rules depends on their political viewpoint, ie.  it is subjective, not objective...

I fail to see why, they both broke the rules.

As an elected MP Kinnock has a much bigger duty to show respect for law and order than any 'member of the public' ( after all Parliament makes our laws ) - Cummings was not elected and is not an MP.

Eh?

You said that you should be objective, and I was agreeing with you.  ::)

My point is that you can't sack Kinnock, he's an elected member of the House - unless he breaks one of the three rules that invoke recall. Simple matter of fact. I pass no judgement as to whether that's right or wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 27, 2020, 01:02:04 PM
It seems at times they try to spin everything, so PPE delivered is x million, till you read they count each glove individually in the x million. Not many one-handed carers I'd guess. So, bit by bit they're eroding our trust in them

...don't forget that a swab from the nose and the throat from the same person, at the same time, is counted as two tests. This is still how daily tests are counted, and we have just had yet another day when the number of people tested is unavailable, as well as the cumulative number of deaths increasing by double the declared number for that day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 27, 2020, 01:06:16 PM
Shouldn't he be sacked for incompetence?

Sturgeon did not sack Catherine Calderwood she backed her to stay in job,  Calderwood resigned when pressure became too much. 


ie. She did the honourable thing.

This Cummings' farce is just giving the UK politicians a chance to do what they are good at- fight like cats in a sack over minutiae, and ignore the really important stuff.

[Link removed by Admin]
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 27, 2020, 03:41:45 PM
It seems at times they try to spin everything, so PPE delivered is x million, till you read they count each glove individually in the x million. Not many one-handed carers I'd guess. So, bit by bit they're eroding our trust in them

...don't forget that a swab from the nose and the throat from the same person, at the same time, is counted as two tests. This is still how daily tests are counted, and we have just had yet another day when the number of people tested is unavailable, as well as the cumulative number of deaths increasing by double the declared number for that day.

Another one day wonder coming up?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-daily-testing-figure-announcement-boris-johnson-uk-a9534761.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 27, 2020, 04:22:19 PM
For the second time in a couple of days, Nicola Sturgeon has referred to a "Retrospective rewriting of the rules". Have I missed something? Was clarification added after the DC incident that wasn't in the original publication?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 27, 2020, 04:28:21 PM
Definitely them and us.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52806004 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52806004)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 27, 2020, 04:31:42 PM
Fifth day on the trot now that the people tested number is 'unavailable'.


For the second time in a couple of days, Nicola Sturgeon has referred to a "Retrospective rewriting of the rules". Have I missed something? Was clarification added after the DC incident that wasn't in the original publication?

Robert Jenrick MP, when defending Cummings' actions, said on Radio 4 this morning that it has always been the case that you can drive somewhere to exercise.

Don't know if it was that she was referring to?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 27, 2020, 04:44:54 PM
The rule, dodgy though it was, was you could drive to exercise if the time you exercised exceeded the time spent driving.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 27, 2020, 05:06:23 PM
Fifth day on the trot now that the people tested number is 'unavailable'.
Saving them up for Sunday?

Robert Jenrick MP, when defending Cummings' actions, said on Radio 4 this morning that it has always been the case that you can drive somewhere to exercise.
He would say that though.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/cabinet-minister-robert-jenrick-breaks-21844275
Definitely them and us.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 27, 2020, 05:45:54 PM
The rule, dodgy though it was, was you could drive to exercise if the time you exercised exceeded the time spent driving.

You could be right. I think that this specific point was only clarified later, in the NPCC guidance as to what constitutes a reasonable excuse. I suspect that most people were under the impression that it would not be, prior to that - certainly many people were stopped by the Police and sent back home on that basis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 27, 2020, 07:03:48 PM
Initially, you had to exercise locally then Downing Street eased it.
Talking of Downing Street, Matt Hancock insulted Scotland by saying our Test and Protect, like Wales, would start sometime soon. Nicola did the whole spiel on Tuesday, and it starts tomorrow, the same as England.
Luckily, the BBC had already trailed it along the bottom of the screen before his misspeak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 28, 2020, 08:33:32 AM
It seems at times they try to spin everything, so PPE delivered is x million, till you read they count each glove individually in the x million. Not many one-handed carers I'd guess. So, bit by bit they're eroding our trust in them

...don't forget that a swab from the nose and the throat from the same person, at the same time, is counted as two tests. This is still how daily tests are counted, and we have just had yet another day when the number of people tested is unavailable, as well as the cumulative number of deaths increasing by double the declared number for that day.
"No 10 says it 'had not noticed' daily testing figure has mysteriously disappeared for several days in a row

Boris Johnson’s spokesman said it was “not something I have noticed” – despite the Department of Health failing to provide the statistic for several days, Rob Merrick reports.

It comes after widespread criticism that the number of people tested is typically tens of thousands fewer than the “capacity” available and way below the 100,000 daily benchmark."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-daily-testing-figure-announcement-boris-johnson-uk-a9534761.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on May 28, 2020, 10:16:33 AM
I have decided not to do "my civic duty"  - see Matt Hancock -  and am not going to download the Track and Trace App.
I don't trust Governments and this one is certainly untrustworthy..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 28, 2020, 11:43:19 AM
Front pages of New European, Metro and Daily Star.

https://twitter.com/TheNewEuropean/status/1265577059600019457
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 28, 2020, 12:02:52 PM
I have decided not to do "my civic duty"  - see Matt Hancock -  and am not going to download the Track and Trace App.
I don't trust Governments and this one is certainly untrustworthy..
I'm sure you won't be the only one.
It wouldn't work on my old Nokia  but I intend to stay put anyway.

No hurry anyway.

Test and trace 'won't be fully operational until end of June'

The UK's test and trace programme "won't be fully operational on a local level" until the end of the June, the scheme's leader is reported to have told MPs.

Labour MP Ben Bradshaw said Dido Harding's comment came during a conference call this morning.

"Not sure where that leaves Johnson’s promise of a fully operational 'world beating' system by Monday," he tweeted
NHS Providers warned yesterday that "key bits" of test and trace were not yet ready and the UK had "a long way to go" before it the system was "fit for purpose".
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-live-uk-lockdown-update-vaccine-deaths-cases-covid-19-today-a9535956.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 28, 2020, 12:07:05 PM
Test and Tracers were saying yesterday that they hadn't expected it to start until next week and yesterday's announcement came as a surprise to them. Appears the statement, yesterday was to take the focus off Cummings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 28, 2020, 12:31:17 PM
They appear to be making it up as they go along.

https://www.indy100.com/article/boris-johnson-track-trace-jeremy-hunt-deadline-liaison-committee-9536346

I heard Hancock promising a 24hr  turnaround time for tests on Breakfast TV this morning.

Teething troubles?    Maybe he meant "waiting time"?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-test-and-tracey-system-nhs-log-in-a9536596.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 28, 2020, 04:09:38 PM
Test and Tracers were saying yesterday that they hadn't expected it to start until next week and yesterday's announcement came as a surprise to them. Appears the statement, yesterday was to take the focus off Cummings.

The 'training' for the Serco test & tracers consists of reading a short pdf, followed by an online multiple guess quiz. That's it, takes less than an hour.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 28, 2020, 04:26:22 PM
Received an email from AVG (I am a customer) and they linked me to this:

The UK has chosen not to use the Google-Apple interface, and has opted instead for a centralized system that collects all the location data into a database controlled by the National Health Service. But besides this more authoritarian data-collection, their app may not even work correctly, because it adheres to different Bluetooth functionality than Google-Apple’s system. This is why many countries have agreed to use the G-A system. And since the NHS can’t update smartphone operating systems like those companies can, well, they may be losing this particular game of Tech Monopoly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 28, 2020, 05:10:26 PM
No 'people tested' number now for six days now, yet we are apparently ready to run a full testing and tracing operation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on May 28, 2020, 05:38:59 PM
Running a track and trace system for the entire population of England from the centre  is likely to be bureaucratic and slow.. 

Running it when the average test turnround is 48 hours is impossible . 24 hours is needed.
It's the typical centralised "command and control " system beloved of the NHS...and proven to be an abject failure...

edit
and with approx 21% of the UK's population not owning a smartphones (2019 stats)  and downloading and using the app not compulsory the usefulness of the system is questionable..
A 50% uptake of  of all smartphone users may be optimistic meaning under 40% of people have the app..

Sounds like a recipe for abject failure to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 28, 2020, 05:46:15 PM
It's the typical centralised "command and control " system beloved of the NHS...and proven to be an abject failure...

Despite the NHS banner, it's nothing to do with the NHS. It's been contracted out to Serco directly by the DHSC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 28, 2020, 05:50:38 PM
Here is one of the main people calling for Cummings to be sacked.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1288182/ian-blackford-coronavirus-lockdown-snp-news-dominic-cummings-resign
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 28, 2020, 05:52:59 PM

and with approx 21% of the UK's population not owning a smartphones (2019 stats)  and downloading and using the app not compulsory the usefulness of the system is questionable..
A 50% uptake of  of all smartphone users may be optimistic meaning under 40% of people have the app..

Sounds like a recipe for abject failure to me.
Some IOW residents claimed it did not work on phones more than 2 years old.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8297475/NHSX-Covid-19-contact-tracing-app-doesnt-work-two-year-old-phones.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 28, 2020, 06:23:26 PM
Despite the NHS banner, it's nothing to do with the NHS. It's been contracted out to Serco directly by the DHSC.
I Scotland it is an NHS function, and the bulk of the Tracers are existing NHS staff. They are no longer recruiting, but those that are starting will be NHS Scotland employees.

Think it was wrong for Boris to start the garden party on Monday. Scotland begins tomorrow, and with the best weekend for years forecast, it is a great thing.
Scotland published the rules and regulations at the same time as the announcement was made, but Boris said he would publish in coming days. Wonder if that is why the delay?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 28, 2020, 07:12:10 PM
Despite the NHS banner, it's nothing to do with the NHS. It's been contracted out to Serco directly by the DHSC.
I Scotland it is an NHS function, and the bulk of the Tracers are existing NHS staff. They are no longer recruiting, but those that are starting will be NHS Scotland employees.

Sounds like a better set up, if they have the clerical staff available.

Serco certainly know how to profit from government contracts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 28, 2020, 09:00:02 PM
Here is one of the main people calling for Cummings to be sacked.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1288182/ian-blackford-coronavirus-lockdown-snp-news-dominic-cummings-resign
No hypocrisy there.
The second paragraph of your article states that Blackford, as well as other MPs, was entitled to travel home.
"The SNP's leader for Westminster, who has called for Dominic Cummings to resign over his visit to Durham, returned to the Scottish island on March 26 - three days after the UK was officially shut down to fight the coronavirus. MPs were entitled to return home from London and Mr Blackford has been based in Skye ever since."

He self-isolated from his wife, and everybody else, on his return because she had a lung condition and Covid was prevalent in London when he left and he did not want to introduce the disease to the island. (or at least that's his story)

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18478298.coronavirus-ian-blackford-isolated-600-mile-trip-skye-home-lockdown/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on May 28, 2020, 09:52:14 PM
So if I get an unsolicited phone call from an unknown number demanding personal information about my friends and acquaintances and that I isolate myself, how am I supposed to know it's genuine rather than a scammer?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Kenneve on May 28, 2020, 09:57:16 PM
Exactly my sentiments, ColinB, I said the same thing to my daughter this afternoon, don’t know what the answer is though?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 28, 2020, 11:17:06 PM
So if I get an unsolicited phone call from an unknown number demanding personal information about my friends and acquaintances and that I isolate myself, how am I supposed to know it's genuine rather than a scammer?
You will only get the call if you have symptoms, have been tested, and have tested positive.
You may get an unsolicited call telling you you have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive. In that case, you won't be asked for personal information. You may be given information, home postcode, date of birth etc, to confirm that they are official and not a scammer. Only then will you be told to self-isolate for 14 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 28, 2020, 11:26:53 PM
So if I get an unsolicited phone call from an unknown number demanding personal information about my friends and acquaintances and that I isolate myself, how am I supposed to know it's genuine rather than a scammer?
You will only get the call if you have symptoms, have been tested, and have tested positive.
You may get an unsolicited call telling you you have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive. In that case, you won't be asked for personal information. You may be given information, home postcode, date of birth etc, to confirm that they are official and not a scammer. Only then will you be told to self-isolate for 14 days.
You might not get a call for some time.
Contact tracers report feeling unready as system launches.
"The new recruits are all working from home in virtual call centres and using their own computer equipment. “My phone is also not working, the microphone isn’t connecting to the app,” one said. “It works for other applications on my phone. So it has gone off with great fanfare this morning but it is a sticking plaster, I think, to look as if it is being delivered.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/28/contact-tracing-in-england-not-fully-operational-until-end-of-june
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on May 29, 2020, 08:11:10 AM
So if I get an unsolicited phone call from an unknown number demanding personal information about my friends and acquaintances and that I isolate myself, how am I supposed to know it's genuine rather than a scammer?
You will only get the call if you have symptoms, have been tested, and have tested positive.
I wish I shared your confidence. The call (or email or text) may actually be the means of telling you that you have tested positive, and that call may then ask for details of your contacts (see https://www.gov.uk/guidance/nhs-test-and-trace-how-it-works ... not sure if that applies to Scotland or not). Your only protection seems to be you’re supposed to recognise the phone number from which the call comes. So given the volume of speculative spam calls/texts/emails with spoofed origins, scammers will be designing their next round of phishing accordingly. I think the only way to deal with any call purporting to be from a call tracer who can’t validate their identity to your satisfaction will be to put the phone down and either use the official website or call them back on the published number (0300 013 5000 ... again, not sure if this is for Scotland).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 29, 2020, 08:55:23 AM
As long as you include Dominic Cummings on your list of contacts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 29, 2020, 09:21:50 AM
SNP accused of short changing Scottish businesses compared to rest of UK,  when all UK countries were given money by Westminster a lot less of it is being distributed in Scotland,  some theories that SNP is using money to reduce its deficit ( which larger than Greece ) instead of passing it on to businesses properly. A court case is pending.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1276515/nicola-sturgeon-news-scottish-businesses-coronavirus-news-latest?int_source=traffic.outbrain&int_medium=traffic.outbrain&int_term=traffic.outbrain&int_content=traffic.outbrain&int_campaign=traffic.outbrain

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 29, 2020, 09:30:04 AM
The UK government pledged money to Scotland for business help. Then, because they didn't use the full amount in England, they are now rowing back on what they will pay Scotland, despite Scotland having already paid out the money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 29, 2020, 10:18:57 AM
Seems Dominic Cummings was ahead of the 'experts' in pushing for lockdown,  how many lives would have been saved if they had taken his advice. 

https://inews.co.uk/news/dominic-cummings-sage-committee-covid-19-lockdown-earlier-coronavirus-2553626
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on May 29, 2020, 10:49:59 AM
To be fair I think he was.

I have had a brief on-line discussion with a friend. This person is an engineer and is an expert on energy management systems having worked for Bentley amongst others. Latterly he served on a  committee advising the government on energy issues.

He is a member of Friends of the Earth and has attended Extinction Rebellion rallies. He passionately wants Cummings to stay because he, Cummings, is fully signed up to getting rid of fossil fuels and advancing the net zero by 2050 target. He has the power and influence to make things happen.

So, an unusual take, Cummings must stay for the sake of the planet!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 29, 2020, 11:18:28 AM
Seems Dominic Cummings was ahead of the 'experts' in pushing for lockdown,  how many lives would have been saved if they had taken his advice. 

https://inews.co.uk/news/dominic-cummings-sage-committee-covid-19-lockdown-earlier-coronavirus-2553626

An earlier lockdown would have saved tens of thousands of lives but how do we know that Cummings was pushing for it?
I would expect it was the politicians who delayed it "for the sake of the economy."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 29, 2020, 11:57:03 AM
but how do we know that Cummings was pushing for it?
The minutes are due to be (or may already be) released. I would imagine that another member who was pushing for an early lockdown has released the information.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 29, 2020, 12:00:43 PM
Here's an article which puts a lot of my thoughts into words https://thecritic.co.uk/were-all-in-the-big-numbers-now/ .

The ONS has come up with a lower proportion of infected people https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52837593 than the Manchester university estimate but I’d like to see the statistical justification of 885 people being representative of the UK population.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 29, 2020, 12:16:06 PM
That is South Korea having to close schools, just a few days after opening them, because of a spike in new cases. They have the expertise to "Track and Trace".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52845015 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52845015)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 29, 2020, 12:41:24 PM
That is South Korea having to close schools, just a few days after opening them, because of a spike in new cases. They have the expertise to "Track and Trace".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52845015 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52845015)
As you say South Korea has an efficient track and trace system and about 100 new cases per day as compared to the UK's 2000.
They have already isolated the source of the outbreak.
They have a government which understands what needs to be done and a population compliant enough to accept restrictions imposed by the government to maintain control of the spread of the virus.
They'll be back in control of the situation in weeks if not days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 29, 2020, 01:36:35 PM
Just watched the Scottish Update, with Nicola Sturgeon, and a question was asked about scamming and Test and Protect.
Professor Jason Leitch, the National Clinical Director of the Scottish Government, explained that when a person is tested, they are given a barcode and when a tracer contacts you to ask about contacts, that barcode will be quoted to confirm authenticity. He also said that a scammer is unlikely to call several thousand random people in the hope of reaching one who has had a test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 29, 2020, 02:12:34 PM

They'll be back in control of the situation in weeks if not days.
Think I might have to revise my estimate. I've just read that they've identified the source of infection as the Korean equivalent of Amazon.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/28/south-korea-faces-return-to-coronavirus-restrictions-after-spike-in-new-cases
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on May 29, 2020, 02:55:06 PM
... when a person is tested, they are given a barcode and when a tracer contacts you to ask about contacts, that barcode will be quoted to confirm authenticity.
That sounds good, well done Scotland. Wonder if the English system will be similar?
He also said that a scammer is unlikely to call several thousand random people in the hope of reaching one who has had a test.
How very naive. That's exactly what spammers do. He must be the only person in the UK who's never had a call about an accident he's never had, or PPI he hasn't got, or a virus his computer doesn't have!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: VicW on May 29, 2020, 03:19:45 PM
The new 'Test and Trace' system apparently introduced before the system was properly up running requires that if you are confirmed to have the virus you will be asked for details of all those that you have been in contact with.
The criteria are that you must have been within two metres of them for fifteen minutes or more. How many people have you been in contact with recently that fit those criteria, people that you live with excluded? If there is someone do you know who they are etc?
In a supermarket or passing on the pavement you may be within two metres but not for fifteen minutes. I don't think that there are going to be many people contacted.

Vic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 29, 2020, 04:14:18 PM
Went into Tesco yesterday and they have gone to trouble of putting arrows on the floor in the aisle but they may as well not have bothered.  it was not at all unusual to see people coming at you the wrong way down and aisle,  I pointed out the arrows to a few people but they just carried on,  a couple of groups standing nattering in the middle of an aisle so nobody could pass.   on the wider transverse aisle at front and rear of store they were two way,  and people still either wandering down the centre of aisle or on the wrong side.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 29, 2020, 04:23:45 PM
I don't think that there are going to be many people contacted.
It will mainly be people that are back to work that are contacted. Most of us have never been near anyone outside the household for three months. As more and more things are opened up, then there will be more chances of close contact, but at the moment, not really.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on May 29, 2020, 04:40:36 PM
Went into Tesco yesterday and they have gone to trouble of putting arrows on the floor in the aisle but they may as well not have bothered.  it was not at all unusual to see people coming at you the wrong way down and aisle,  I pointed out the arrows to a few people but they just carried on,  a couple of groups standing nattering in the middle of an aisle so nobody could pass.   on the wider transverse aisle at front and rear of store they were two way,  and people still either wandering down the centre of aisle or on the wrong side.

Where's Darwin when you need him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 29, 2020, 04:48:47 PM
The test and trace guidance here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52442754 about close contacts is useful.

Close contacts are:

 - people you spend 15 minutes or more with at a distance of less than 2m
- -people you have direct contact with - such as sexual partners, household members or people with whom you have had face-to-face conversations at a distance of less than 1m

ie people you briefly pass in supermarkets or elsewhere at a distance of 1m or less are not deemed to be close contacts as the risk of virus transmission is very low (unless someone coughs at the wrong moment - but they shouldn't be there). Sitting in an air-conditioned room with an infectious person more than 2m away carries a much greater risk.

Fpr me, the gap in the contact tracing process is that sensibly those who might be infected should be immediately signed up for a test (or sent a test kit) so that those who aren't infected can get their all-clear and be back to normal life in one week or less instead of sitting around for two weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 29, 2020, 05:30:13 PM
Unfortunately you can be infectious while showing no symptoms and a test would likely return a negative result. A couple of days later a positive result. Hence the quarantine period.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 29, 2020, 05:51:12 PM
Ignoring the fact that the system isn't ready yet, does anyone think that there will be enough public compliance to make the T&T system effective, particularly given the reports from SAGE?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/coronavirus-symptoms-not-isolating-sage-track-and-trace
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 29, 2020, 07:31:18 PM
Think UK is chaotic, at least we sent our PPE to help

Sorry can not get link to work, but just read the France burned 1.5 Billion medical face masks in run up to pandemic. ( edit - added links )

https://order-order.com/2020/05/29/france-burned-1-6-billion-face-masks-in-the-run-up-to-coronavirus/?utm_source=Guy+Fawkes%27+Blog+List&utm_campaign=34524299d7-Mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_547885726c-34524299d7-230033269

https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/05/france-burned-1-6-billion-face-masks-before-coronavirus-crisis-as-global-shortage-of-ppe-kills-hundreds-of-doctors-the-sun.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 29, 2020, 08:13:30 PM
Think UK is chaotic, at least we sent our PPE to help

Sorry can not get link to work, but just read the France burned 1.5 Billion medical face masks in run up to pandemic.

1.5 million were initially destroyed, not billion, from an old stock of 362 million out of date masks that was discovered. They were subsequently tested and it was deemed that 85 million were still suitable for non-medical use.

https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/05/face-masks-france-burns-more-than-a-million-masks-before-panicking-world-new.html


Australia's okay for masks, they're washing up on the beaches after 40 containers fell off a cargo ship

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/27/surgical-masks-wash-up-on-sydney-beaches-after-40-containers-fall-off-cargo-ship
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 29, 2020, 11:10:10 PM
No 'people tested' number now for six days now, yet we are apparently ready to run a full testing and tracing operation.
Seven now.

Prof Allyson Pollock, director of the Newcastle University Centre for Excellence in Regulatory Science, said the lack of transparency was concerning at a critical time when testing was required to ensure restrictions can be eased safely without triggering a resurgence of infections.
“I have no idea whether we’ve got adequate testing [for track and trace] because we just don’t have enough information,” she said. “We should know how many people have been tested, why they’ve been tested, where they’ve been tested, who has done the test, the test results. We haven’t got those figures.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/something-to-hide-government-accused-over-covid-19-tests
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 30, 2020, 09:37:12 AM
Watching the news this morning and they were going on about how police in England will be breaking up gatherings over the weekend and how fines will be issued. Contrast that to Scotland where policing is being done with a far lighter hand. Nicola has been asked several times about police involvement and each time she has said that police will do what is required but that they police by consent. It probably helps that Scotland has one national police service instead of county forces.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 30, 2020, 09:55:10 AM
Watching the news this morning and they were going on about how police in England will be breaking up gatherings over the weekend and how fines will be issued.

They might be able to do something in public places, but many are taking zero notice of the rules now.

Another garden piss up yesterday next door to me, only a few neighbours declined the invitation. It's like they are trying to prove a point, they didn't go off like this last summer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 30, 2020, 10:02:17 AM
Latest news from SAGE, quite a sobering read

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/covid-19-spreading-too-fast-to-lift-uk-lockdown-sage-adviser
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on May 30, 2020, 11:25:54 AM
Latest news from SAGE, quite a sobering read

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/covid-19-spreading-too-fast-to-lift-uk-lockdown-sage-adviser

I expect we will have a second wave..

Lockdown lifted too early, compliance with rules lost as it is apparent (whether true or not) that   "our rulers do as they like and ignore the law"..

Putting the lid back on that box is impossible without consent.

And track and trace likely to prove "another world beating"  fiasco.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 30, 2020, 11:44:14 AM
Ministers no longer following the Science -(if they ever did)

The Liberal Democrat health spokesperson, Munira Wilson, has said the decision by key members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) to go public with their concerns about easing lockdown measures shows “ministers are no longer following the science”.

Echoing the words of the mayor for Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, (see 9.44am), the Twickenham MP said lifting lockdown seemed “premature”.

The test, trace, isolate system that we need to keep people safe is not yet fully functional.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/30/uk-coronavirus-live-england-lockdown-easing-is-premature-says-burnham

The NHSX app is delayed for an unknown period. For seven days straight, the government has been unable to provide even basic data about the number of people tested.

On top of these failings, public health messaging has been badly undermined as people see it’s one rule for the Tory elite and another for everyone else.

Given this chaos, measures to lift lockdown appear premature.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392

Edit Added Second link
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on May 30, 2020, 02:10:44 PM
I expect we will have a second wave..
That will be welcome news for those who are organising the vaccine trials. :) They have a load of vaccinated people (and those with the placebo jab as control) who are waiting to be exposed to the virus. The longer they have to wait then the longer everyone else has to wait for the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 30, 2020, 02:32:18 PM
With an infection rate just under 1 (or at least it was some time ago), no effective track and trace policy in place, a warm weekend, a demob-happy public inspired by Dominic Cumming's example into thinking they can do what they like, what could possibly go wrong?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/30/england-risks-covid-19-surge-without-test-and-trace-safety-net-sage-boris-johnson
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 30, 2020, 11:08:54 PM
No 'people tested' number now for six days now, yet we are apparently ready to run a full testing and tracing operation.
Seven now.

Prof Allyson Pollock, director of the Newcastle University Centre for Excellence in Regulatory Science, said the lack of transparency was concerning at a critical time when testing was required to ensure restrictions can be eased safely without triggering a resurgence of infections.
“I have no idea whether we’ve got adequate testing [for track and trace] because we just don’t have enough information,” she said. “We should know how many people have been tested, why they’ve been tested, where they’ve been tested, who has done the test, the test results. We haven’t got those figures.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/something-to-hide-government-accused-over-covid-19-tests

Now 8.

Today there was an explanation of sorts.

"30 May notes

Reporting on the number of people tested has been temporarily paused to ensure consistent reporting across all pillars. This is due to a small percentage of cases where the same person has had more than one test or tested positive more than once for COVID19 in Pillar 2. Corrections will be made to any figures if they have subsequently been found to have an error.

The daily number of positive cases is 841 higher than the difference between today’s and yesterday’s cumulative totals. This is due to historic revisions to pillar 1 data, as it has been identified that a group of test results from the previous two months, from a single NHS laboratory, were incorrectly reported to the national data-set as positive."

and they are going to change the system again tomorrow.

"From 1st June we will stop publishing a separate count of deaths in hospital as our daily count now provides a count of deaths in all settings. NHSE continue to publish deaths in hospital, for England, on their website"

 I can't make head nor tail of it. Could it be deliberately confusing?
The explanations of the next section (about Time Series) don't make any sense to me either.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on May 31, 2020, 09:49:06 AM
What we don't know - yet - is whether this is seasonal like flu. In other words, even with the lukewarm and compromised advice we are currently getting from the UK Government (as opposed to the devolved administrations) the virus may continue to decline.

We don't know of course but a second wave might occur this autumn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 31, 2020, 10:28:37 AM
Durham Constabulary report on Dominic Cummings, maybe the howling left-whingers in BBC ( Maitilis I mean you ) and other media ( no doubt funded by Soros ) will STFU.  This is less about rule infringements and more about the lefts chagrin at the part Cummings played in Brexit and Conservative victory in Dec 2019.  Ian Blackford ( among others ) still colluding with Barnier to get a two year extension ( during which time we still pay EU loadsa money ) - that is the real story - but left-whinge media pretty quiet on that one.

https://www.durham.police.uk/news-and-events/Pages/News%20Articles/Durham-Constabulary-press-statement--.aspx
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 31, 2020, 10:41:24 AM
I was listening to Arlene Foster on "The Andrew Marr Show" this morning. She was asked about Track and Trace, which is up and running in NI and has been for the past fortnight. They have about 30 new cases every day, and each new infection leads to between 8 and 10 contacts needing to be traced.
In England, there are about 8,000 new cases each day (ONS figures), so if each case generated 8 to 10 contacts, then that is 65,000 to 80,000 contacts to be traced and told to isolate for 14 days. And the same the next day. And the next.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on May 31, 2020, 12:00:31 PM
Durham Constabulary report on Dominic Cummings, maybe the howling left-whingers in BBC ( Maitilis I mean you ) and other media ( no doubt funded by Soros ) will STFU.  This is less about rule infringements and more about the lefts chagrin at the part Cummings played in Brexit and Conservative victory in Dec 2019.  Ian Blackford ( among others ) still colluding with Barnier to get a two year extension ( during which time we still pay EU loadsa money ) - that is the real story - but left-whinge media pretty quiet on that one.

https://www.durham.police.uk/news-and-events/Pages/News%20Articles/Durham-Constabulary-press-statement--.aspx

This is not a left right issue. It never has been. Esther McVey replied to an email sent by a friend of mine indicating that she would have offered her resignation in similar circumtances. Julia Hartley Brewer is a right wing pro Brexit columnist and is vociferous that Cummings should go as is Piers Morgan. Even the Spectator, a Tory magazine who employ Mrs Cummings as a commissioning editor, have published articles, the latest by Alex Massie, saying Cummings must go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on May 31, 2020, 12:01:46 PM
"Failures by Public Health England to launch weekly routine tests to identify asymptomatic hospital and care home staff are causing new Covid-19 hotspots, experts believe.

Tim Spector, a King's College professor who leads the Covid symptom study app, and fellow epidemiologist Carl Heneghan, a professor at Oxford, both issued grave warnings over undetected cases among key workers.

Over the past week, Weston-super-Mare's general hospital has been forced to shut its doors to new admissions in part due to tests on all staff showing 100 of them were infected. Results indicated six per cent  of all workers were infected and asymptomatic."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/30/failure-launch-routine-tests-identify-asymptomatic-hospital/

The same PHE which forecast a 1,000 infections  a day for March and said that care homes were safe from infection...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 31, 2020, 12:15:03 PM
Durham Constabulary report on Dominic Cummings, maybe the howling left-whingers in BBC ( Maitilis I mean you ) and other media ( no doubt funded by Soros ) will STFU.  This is less about rule infringements and more about the lefts chagrin at the part Cummings played in Brexit and Conservative victory in Dec 2019.  Ian Blackford ( among others ) still colluding with Barnier to get a two year extension ( during which time we still pay EU loadsa money ) - that is the real story - but left-whinge media pretty quiet on that one.

https://www.durham.police.uk/news-and-events/Pages/News%20Articles/Durham-Constabulary-press-statement--.aspx

This is not a left right issue. It never has been. Esther McVey replied to an email sent by a friend of mine indicating that she would have offered her resignation in similar circumtances. Julia Hartley Brewer is a right wing pro Brexit columnist and is vociferous that Cummings should go as is Piers Morgan. Even the Spectator, a Tory magazine who employ Mrs Cummings as a commissioning editor, have published articles, the latest by Alex Massie, saying Cummings must go.

But the Police taking no action in their view 'a slight infringement' - hardly justifies the media feeding frenzy.  The media has had their noses put out by Cummings - he set the rules,  no wonder they are after blood.  This is a 'proxy' war, with very little to do with driving to Durham,  there are other bigger agendas running here.

The real question is why is Blackford colluding with EU negotiators to still try to delay UK leaving EU ? That crime used to be called treason and maybe still is ( undermining the legitimate government ).  Cummings has been subject to media hounding for a long time now,  they picket outside his London residence and he cannot leave or enter his house without constant media attention,  no wonder he wanted his family out of that.

https://globalvisionuk.com/uk-mainstream-media-vs-cummings-the-proxy-war-continued/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 31, 2020, 12:39:35 PM
What we don't know - yet - is whether this is seasonal like flu. In other words, even with the lukewarm and compromised advice we are currently getting from the UK Government (as opposed to the devolved administrations) the virus may continue to decline.

We don't know of course but a second wave might occur this autumn.
A second wave might occur when lockdown restrictions are lifted while the infection rate is still high and without a well thought out, effective test trace and islolate system in place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on May 31, 2020, 01:21:25 PM
What we don't know - yet - is whether this is seasonal like flu. In other words, even with the lukewarm and compromised advice we are currently getting from the UK Government (as opposed to the devolved administrations) the virus may continue to decline.

We don't know of course but a second wave might occur this autumn.
A second wave might occur when lockdown restrictions are lifted while the infection rate is still high and without a well thought out, effective test trace and islolate system in place.

Infections still high? yes
well thought out test trace and isolate system? No

So far the Government has initially made the wrong decisions on everything important - and reversed most when it became obvious they were wrong. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 31, 2020, 01:36:18 PM
and reversed most when it became obvious they were wrong.
It is like this new rule for easing lockdown for the Shielded. On Thursday there was to be no change, then everyone was asking what was going to happen for the shielding, then last night there was a policy change. The Shielded have not suddenly gotten safer since Thursday!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 31, 2020, 01:57:08 PM
What we don't know - yet - is whether this is seasonal like flu. In other words, even with the lukewarm and compromised advice we are currently getting from the UK Government (as opposed to the devolved administrations) the virus may continue to decline.

We don't know of course but a second wave might occur this autumn.
A second wave might occur when lockdown restrictions are lifted while the infection rate is still high and without a well thought out, effective test trace and islolate system in place.

Infections still high? yes
well thought out test trace and isolate system? No

So far the Government has initially made the wrong decisions on everything important - and reversed most when it became obvious they were wrong.
The Eric Morecambe government?

(The right strategies but in the wrong order.)
https://www.chortle.co.uk/video/2019/02/28/42422/morecambe_&_wise_&_andre_previn
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 31, 2020, 02:36:03 PM
It is like this new rule for easing lockdown for the Shielded. On Thursday there was to be no change, then everyone was asking what was going to happen for the shielding, then last night there was a policy change. The Shielded have not suddenly gotten safer since Thursday!

Sporting events return tomorrow, and the vulnerable can leave home. According to the Government's Alert Level system, that it not supposed to happen until we reach Level 1.

It appears that we've suddenly gone from Alert Level 4 to Level 1.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on May 31, 2020, 03:36:09 PM
It is like this new rule for easing lockdown for the Shielded. On Thursday there was to be no change, then everyone was asking what was going to happen for the shielding, then last night there was a policy change. The Shielded have not suddenly gotten safer since Thursday!

Sporting events return tomorrow, and the vulnerable can leave home. According to the Government's Alert Level system, that it not supposed to happen until we reach Level 1.

It appears that we've suddenly gone from Alert Level 4 to Level 1.

It's the MIUAWGA strategy


Making It Up As We Go Along.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on May 31, 2020, 04:24:34 PM



It's the MIUAWGA strategy


Making It Up As We Go Along.
Almost the same words as used by the National Educatin Union with regard to opening schools.

"Ministers have also been urged to not to reopen schools on Monday and were accused of “making it up as they go along” by the the National Education Union, who alleged the government has changed its plans for reopening schools 41 times in the past three weeks. Tory vice chair Caroline Johnson dismissed the “hard-left union” as “chasing headlines”."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-live-uk-update-lockdown-boris-johnson-cummings-schools-a9540776.html#post-1189677968
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 31, 2020, 04:56:00 PM
Tory vice chair Caroline Johnson dismissed the “hard-left union” as “chasing headlines”.

It's just to shut down any opposition. Anyone offering any contrary views are labelled instantly as communists, marxists, remoaners, left-whingers, treasonous, and other pejorative and inflammatory name calling. It appeals to your average Daily Mail reader.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on May 31, 2020, 05:10:56 PM
This afternoon's Scottish Update was conducted by the Health Secretary, Jeane Freeman, and she made it clear that the shielded, here in Scotland, will remain advised to stay at home and isolated for the present. If there is any change, it will be announced in the next few weeks, but as for now, there is no evidence that going out is safe for those who are in the shielded category.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on May 31, 2020, 06:44:23 PM
Tory vice chair Caroline Johnson dismissed the “hard-left union” as “chasing headlines”.

It's just to shut down any opposition. Anyone offering any contrary views are labelled instantly as communists, marxists, remoaners, left-whingers, treasonous, and other pejorative and inflammatory name calling. It appeals to your average Daily Mail reader.

in my view Caroline Johnson is correct in this case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on May 31, 2020, 07:33:17 PM
To paraphrase Kenny Everett...

When we were an Empire, our leader was an Emperor

Then we became a Kingdom, and our leader was the King

Now we are a Country and Boris is a c*£#
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on May 31, 2020, 09:17:33 PM
https://thecritic.co.uk/the-lockdowns-founding-myth/

Takeaway message is that the science not the government was responsible for not introducing lockdown earlier, ties in with Cummings wanting earlier lockdown and being overruled by 'experts'....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 31, 2020, 10:19:04 PM
in my view Caroline Johnson is correct in this case.

Your view is that because the NEU is a "hard-left" union, their views are ideological, rather than being concerned by the safety of reopening schools?

Independent Sage members certainly think that there is danger in reopening schools before the track & trace system is proven.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on May 31, 2020, 10:43:34 PM
https://thecritic.co.uk/the-lockdowns-founding-myth/

Takeaway message is that the science not the government was responsible for not introducing lockdown earlier, ties in with Cummings wanting earlier lockdown and being overruled by 'experts'....

The Critic, funded by Jeremy Hosking. Another campaigning website, and another big Conservative / Vote Leave / Brexit Party donor. Interesting to see that later articles on the website appear to be turning critical of Boris.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on June 01, 2020, 05:53:52 AM
in my view Caroline Johnson is correct in this case.

Your view is that because the NEU is a "hard-left" union, their views are ideological, rather than being concerned by the safety of reopening schools?

Independent Sage members certainly think that there is danger in reopening schools before the trace & trace system is proven.

Well as the testing sytem has not been tested to quoted 200k capacity and tests are doubled counted and turnround times are 48 hours vs the 24 hours needed to make it work and it relies on the  postal system to deliver and the tracing system has not yet started to work..

if you live in teh parts of teh UK where postal deliveries are slow
or 20 miles away from a testing station


the children might get back to school in some places by 2022..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 01, 2020, 07:37:13 AM
Test results for 31st May
Capacity 200K (Including 30K antibody tests. Don't know if these are the duff ones they bought from China some time ago
Tests 116 K (including postal tests sent out but not necessarily returned)
People tested Unknown.

More gobbledigook about missing numbers. At least this time there is a bit of explanation. (transfer between pillars)

"The number of tests is 1,395 higher than the difference between today and yesterday’s cumulative totals. This is due to revisions to historical data in Pillar 1 (adding 3 tests) and Pillar 2 (removing 1,398 tests) due to further information being made available to support data processing.

The number of in-person tests is 5,005 higher and delivery 3,607 lower than the difference between today and yesterday’s cumulative totals. This is due to revisions to historical data in Pillar 2 due to further information being made available to support data processing."

I think they are doing everything to inflate numbers and accuracy of data is suffering.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 01, 2020, 09:38:24 AM
The Critic, funded by Jeremy Hosking. Another campaigning website, and another big Conservative / Vote Leave / Brexit Party donor. Interesting to see that later articles on the website appear to be turning critical of Boris.

Shows they have some fairness then - unlike the BBC and Guardian.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 01, 2020, 10:30:59 AM
Shows they have some fairness then - unlike the BBC and Guardian.

Not sure about fair, but I am surprised how quickly they have the knife into Johnson, whilst at the same time championing Cummings as some sort of hero. Interesting times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: peteo48 on June 01, 2020, 10:49:59 AM
More generally, I can't help thinking that easement of lockdown could work if people really did stick to the rules. The problem is they don't and this is a problem for any Government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 01, 2020, 11:29:06 AM
More generally, I can't help thinking that easement of lockdown could work if people really did stick to the rules. The problem is they don't and this is a problem for any Government.

I think that's absolutely correct.

I don't know about your neighbours, but most of mine seem to be ignoring the rules now. Perhaps they think that as they have managed to get this far without any problem, it's not going to affect them. They're not youngsters either, most of them around here are in the 50+ age bracket.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 01, 2020, 12:00:36 PM
More generally, I can't help thinking that easement of lockdown could work if people really did stick to the rules. The problem is they don't and this is a problem for any Government.

I think that's absolutely correct.

I don't know about your neighbours, but most of mine seem to be ignoring the rules now. Perhaps they think that as they have managed to get this far without any problem, it's not going to affect them. They're not youngsters either, most of them around here are in the 50+ age bracket.
Maybe it'll take some of the pressure off the beaches.
https://www.mylondon.news/news/south-london-news/croydon-ikea-live-updates-huge-18341392?555
Another lid off another bottle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on June 01, 2020, 12:14:31 PM
Never been to Ikea so I do not know the attraction. I have enjoyed lockdown because I HAVEN'T been able to go to the shops!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 01, 2020, 12:57:41 PM
I have enjoyed lockdown because I HAVEN'T been able to go to the shops!

Me too but I have been to Ikea.
I once went there with my wife and bought a table which turned out to be too big for the boot of my car.
Went back the nextweekend with a friend in his van.
Drove up to the collection bay. Straight in picked up table. Straight out again.Back on the motorway in 5 minutes.
I felt a sense of relief almost like guilt.
Some folk must enjoy it though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on June 01, 2020, 01:11:33 PM
Nicola is currently reading the riot act regarding the tossers who disregarded the rules over the weekend. Talking about putting them into law. Seemingly 797 move on orders, were issued by police, in Scotland, over the weekend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 01, 2020, 01:30:07 PM
Nicola is currently reading the riot act regarding the tossers who disregarded the rules over the weekend. Talking about putting them into law. Seemingly 797 move on orders, were issued by police, in Scotland, over the weekend.

Watching that.

I can't see anything like that happening down here, it would be impossible to enforce now. It appears that everybody is catching up on every activity they have been precluded from doing over the last few months.

I also noticed that there is a movement in Scotland pressing for a comprehensive national schooling system online, given that school reopening in August appears to be in some doubt. I have always maintained that the whole of the UK should have been working on this right from the beginning. Many other countries, particularly in the far east, quickly switched to remote schooling over the internet.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/31/parents-call-for-virtual-school-for-scottish-pupils
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 01, 2020, 03:08:31 PM
Medical professionals and scientists aren't as optimistic as the politicians.
Article from BMJ here.
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2102

and in particular with regard to school opening
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2079

Edit added second link

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/may/22/ministers-rejected-school-reopening-plan-recommended-by-sage-experts

Edit added third link
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 01, 2020, 06:42:43 PM
The total yesterday was 38,489. The number of deaths reported today is 111, making a new total of 39,045  ???


Here's the official explanation from DHSC

Quote
A further change to the reporting process was introduced on 1 June 2020 and affected data from 24 May onwards. Deaths linked to cases identified through ‘pillar 2’ testing (see ‘Total and daily UK cases’ section on this page) are included as well as ‘pillar 1’ cases. All deaths before 24 May 2020 of people who tested positive through ‘pillar 2’ testing are included in the reported daily figure for 24 May 2020.

This change resulted in an additional 445 deaths being included (as at 1 June 2020).


...and a more detailed explanation from Press Association

Quote
The number of people in the UK who have died after testing positive for Covid-19 is 556 higher than the equivalent total announced yesterday, although the government is reporting the day-on-day change as 111.

The reason for the difference in these two figures is to do with how deaths are being incorporated into historic data retrospectively.

Yesterday’s cumulative total announced by the Department of Health was 38,489, which is 556 below today’s cumulative total of 39,045.

But since yesterday, 445 deaths have been added to the historic data.

These additional deaths are linked to cases that have been identified through testing that has been carried out by commercial partners, rather than testing that has been done in NHS and Public Health England laboratories.

Rather than include these 445 deaths in today’s increase, the Department of Health has incorporated them within the previous cumulative total, to create a notional total for yesterday of 38,934 (38,489 + 445).

The difference between this notional total of 38,934 and today’s total of 39,045 is 111, and this is the one being reported by the government.


...although the previous days' deaths on the briefing chart do not appear to have been updated to reflect the share out. One way to massage the headline figures, and the 7-day running average, I guess.

I notice that the '5 tests' and 'Alert level' graphics were also curiously missing from today's briefing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 01, 2020, 08:15:44 PM
I wonder if anybody has a note of the real figures.
I see even the telegraph is reporting on the double counting of tests.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/tens-thousands-coronavirus-tests-have-double-counted-officials/
I've also included the Metro version in case people are excluded by the Telegraph paywall
https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/22/thousands-coronavirus-tests-are-double-counted-officials-admit-12742017/
They're easing this lockdown with their eyes closed and their fingers crossed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 01, 2020, 08:36:37 PM
The total yesterday was 38,489. The number of deaths reported today is 111, making a new total of 39,045  ???


This is the best explanation I've read for it.
Hancock, the health secretary, said that the latest daily figure for the number of UK coronavirus deaths, at 111, was “the lowest figure since lockdown began on 23 March”. But the figure is only this low because some coronavirus deaths added to the overall total have been treated as historic additions, not new additions (ie, they have been added to previous totals, not yesterday’s.) See 6.01pm. These headline numbers are also an underestimate because they only cover people who tested positive for coronavirus and died. Thousands more people have died from coronavirus without having been tested. Today’s chart (see 5.13pm) also suggests that in recent days the rolling average for the daily number of deaths has been levelling off rather than continuing to fall.

[link removed by Admin]
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 02, 2020, 11:15:37 AM
The total yesterday was 38,489. The number of deaths reported today is 111, making a new total of 39,045  ???


Previously the 445 extra deaths would have been included with the Monday's figure.
Now they are reduced to a footnote on a slide.
Much neater.  ::)

There has been other jiggery pokery with the statistics in the last few days as well but not as obvious as this.
Hancock's manipulation of statistics has been criticicised by Sir David Norgrove of the UK Statistics Authority.

https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence/sir-david-norgrove-response-to-matt-hancock-regarding-the-governments-covid-19-testing-data/

Last edit added link

"Norgrove said it was also “hard to believe the statistics work to support the testing programme itself”, adding that they “still fall well short” of the statistics code of practice which Hancock has said he supported. He added:
It is not surprising that given their inadequacy that data on testing are so widely criticised and often mistrusted."
last edit added quote

I read the previous correspondence between Hancock and Norgrove (linked at the bottom of Norgroves letter) last week but these were coded in much more polite terms. By comparison with them it appears Norgrove is getting a bit p1ssed off with Hancock.
last edit added last comment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on June 02, 2020, 04:12:49 PM
Kancock graduated with a first in PPE (Philosophy, politics and economics or politics, philosophy and economics ).

A qualification in  how not to be  open and honest...but appear to be so..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 02, 2020, 04:31:31 PM
Kancock graduated with a first in PPE (Philosophy, politics and economics or politics, philosophy and economics ).

A qualification in  how not to be  open and honest...but appear to be so..
He promised to be in the letter he sent to Sir David Norcroft, which prompted the reply above.

"Dear Sir David,
Thank you for your letter of 11 May setting out the importance of clear, open and transparent reporting of statistics on COVID-19 tests. I strongly support this, and more broadly the role that high-quality statistics and data play in informing public debate and driving decision-making, and particularly so as we work to address the COVID-19 situation. As you know I have authorised publication of the most full and complete data about our COVID-19 response."
and
"I believe these steps will help to embed the principles of trust, quality and value set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics. I think it is important to demonstrate how good, high-quality data can be used to drive forward our response to this virus, and to build confidence and trust in our figures as we do so."

https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence/response-from-matt-hancock-to-sir-david-norgrove-covid-19-testing/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 02, 2020, 05:55:47 PM
Jings Tuesday already. Nearly forgot.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending22may2020
If you don't believe the Government's statistics the only way to follow the pandemic is from the difference between actual deaths and the average.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/02/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-nears-50000-latest-official-figures-show
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on June 03, 2020, 10:14:02 AM
Reports today that the 14 day Quarantine period for travellers arriving from overseas was Dominic Cummings plan to take the limelight off the care home fiasco. Great to know that the government is handling the pandemic by soundbites and not by following the science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 03, 2020, 11:16:12 AM
Swedish Covid-19 death rate soars, how can they now defend their anti-lockdown policy.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/20/sweden-becomes-country-highest-coronavirus-death-rate-per-capita/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 03, 2020, 12:16:26 PM
UK has a high death rate from Covid-19 because......

 
An aged population.

An obese population.

A large BAME population.

An under-educated population.

Anything they can't definitively prove wasn't a Covid death goes down as a Covid death.

A combination of the above.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 03, 2020, 03:18:32 PM
UK has a high death rate from Covid-19 because......
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632853-300-why-have-there-been-so-many-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-uk/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on June 03, 2020, 03:57:12 PM
UK has a high death rate from Covid-19 because......

 
An aged population.

An obese population.

A large BAME population.

An under-educated population.

Anything they can't definitively prove wasn't a Covid death goes down as a Covid death.

A combination of the above.

Average age of population in Italy is > 2 years of UK's.

You obviously don't read the news about care home fatalities: no tests so deaths recorded as other causes not Covid.. - this went on for 3 months.
You obviously don't read the news about care home fatalities : sick people sent back to care homes from hospital with no tests for covid.
You obviously don't read the news about care home fatalities: no PPE
You obviously don't read the news about care home fatalities: infections brought in by temporary staff who go from one care home to another spreading disease.. no tests of course.

You obviously don't read the news about Uk testing: it was a shambles
You obviously don't read the news about initial lockdown: far later - in terms of population deaths as a % of population than anywhere else.
You obviously don't read the news about  testing on incoming passengers from KNOWN hot spots- there was none.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on June 03, 2020, 04:24:40 PM
UK has a high death rate from Covid-19 because......
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632853-300-why-have-there-been-so-many-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-uk/

I really hope Johnson can be held to account. Elected on a populist "Get Brexit done" ticket, he has proven to be a one-trick pony who has totally fumbled the pandemic. He has presided over the deaths of 60,000 UK citizens so far (ONS estimate of excess deaths). For comparison, "only" 70,000 UK civilians died during WW2 (Wikipedia). That's the scale of this. Rather than him admitting it I now fully expect a political smokescreen blaming any and everyone else to divert our attention. Noting the increasing number of stories about the stalling of EU trade negotiations maybe the spin doctors are already trying to focus attention back onto his favourite subject.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 03, 2020, 04:26:57 PM
Swedish Covid-19 death rate soars, how can they now defend their anti-lockdown policy.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/20/sweden-becomes-country-highest-coronavirus-death-rate-per-capita/

At least the Swedes are acknowledging their mistakes and saying that they may learn from them in the future-

"Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at the Public Health Agency, said that in hindsight Sweden should have done more.
“If we were to run into the same disease, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would end up doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,” Tegnell told Swedish radio. “Yes, I think we could have done better in what we did in Sweden, clearly.”

The UK Government are in the process of relaxing the lockdown still with a high infection rate, with no adequate test and trace system in operation, and no signs of learning from previous mistakes.
They seem about to make the same mistakes again.

From the New Scientist article linked above-(and referring to te UK government)
"Given the unprecedented nature of the epidemic, Scally says any government would have made poor decisions at times, but “never have they admitted they got anything wrong, or said they are sorry for an action or inaction”.

“Having the highest avoidable death toll in Europe tells us this was not done well,” says Scally. “You can’t do well in the future unless you’re prepared to look back and see what worked and didn’t work.”"
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632853-300-why-have-there-been-so-many-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-uk/
Last edit punctuation
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 03, 2020, 06:13:04 PM

At least the Swedes are acknowledging their mistakes and saying that they may learn from them in the future-


Hindsight is always 20/20  and 'lessons learnt'  is the most overused cover all phrase in the world, but any lessons learnt ( if indeed there were any ) are soon forgotten.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on June 03, 2020, 06:17:16 PM
I really hope Johnson can be held to account.
On today's update Boris was surprised when the scientist explained that there could be another peak sweeping the world later this year. He thought they meant an upturn as things were eased. He actually had to question the scientists himself. And he is leading the team?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 03, 2020, 06:28:10 PM
South Africa actually has had less deaths than normal in spite of SARS-Cov-2,  that is because the virus has actually made the country safer.. it has reduced the astronomic homicide and road accident rate..

https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on June 03, 2020, 07:35:28 PM
UK has a high death rate from Covid-19 because......
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632853-300-why-have-there-been-so-many-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-uk/

I really hope Johnson can be held to account. Elected on a populist "Get Brexit done" ticket, he has proven to be a one-trick pony who has totally fumbled the pandemic. He has presided over the deaths of 60,000 UK citizens so far (ONS estimate of excess deaths). For comparison, "only" 70,000 UK civilians died during WW2 (Wikipedia). That's the scale of this. Rather than him admitting it I now fully expect a political smokescreen blaming any and everyone else to divert our attention. Noting the increasing number of stories about the stalling of EU trade negotiations maybe the spin doctors are already trying to focus attention back onto his favourite subject.

I guess you have looked at normal annual excess deaths due to seasonal flu despite there being an established vaccination programme?

The running total of excess deaths is about double that of a bad seasonal flu year. It is a huge achievement to have reduced the potential forecast of 600,000 COVID-19 deaths to something of the order of 10% or to the equivalent to a really bad seasonal flu year. I think you will find the seasonal flu excess deaths are included in the ONS excess deaths figures you have quoted.

To suggest Johnson has deliberately "presided" over 60,000 deaths seems to be a little ungenerous bearing in mind he himself was seriously ill and, even now, does not yet seem to be fully physically recovered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 03, 2020, 07:41:26 PM
South Africa actually has had less deaths than normal in spite of SARS-Cov-2,  that is because the virus has actually made the country safer.. it has reduced the astronomic homicide and road accident rate..

https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa

Indeed, excess death rate in SA is running significantly below normal. They also locked down hard, it has crippled TalkTalk's customer services in the UK as all of their call centres are in South Africa.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on June 03, 2020, 07:54:59 PM
UK has a high death rate from Covid-19 because......

 
An aged population.

An obese population.

A large BAME population.

An under-educated population.

Anything they can't definitively prove wasn't a Covid death goes down as a Covid death.

A combination of the above.

Average age of population in Italy is > 2 years of UK's.

You obviously don't read the news about care home fatalities: no tests so deaths recorded as other causes not Covid.. - this went on for 3 months.
You obviously don't read the news about care home fatalities : sick people sent back to care homes from hospital with no tests for covid.
You obviously don't read the news about care home fatalities: no PPE
You obviously don't read the news about care home fatalities: infections brought in by temporary staff who go from one care home to another spreading disease.. no tests of course.

You obviously don't read the news about Uk testing: it was a shambles
You obviously don't read the news about initial lockdown: far later - in terms of population deaths as a % of population than anywhere else.
You obviously don't read the news about  testing on incoming passengers from KNOWN hot spots- there was none.

There was an adage that you shouldn't believe everything you read in the newspapers which, more than ever, seems to stand the test of time.

Then as someone said earlier - people only read what they want to believe.

And, of course, the media mostly only publish stories they are fed.  There are not a few individuals with an axe to grind who are successfully orchestrating media stories for their own personal benefit or cause or political advantage. (No names, no pack drill).

Many of points you angrily raise lie within the operational responsibility of the National Heath Service which, despite their very effective PR campaign (which we have paid for), must also be held accountable for their significant failings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 03, 2020, 08:06:00 PM
It is the very success of th NHS in non-pandemic UK that could be the cause of quite a few UK deaths from covid-19 rather than the pseudo reasons that Boris bashers on here keep regurgitating ad-nauseum.  A spokesman from WHO said just after the start of pandemic that UK should expect large death toll from virus because of their success in keeping frail people with many health problems alive. The spokesman has mainly been proved right...

NHS has been rated as best healthcare system several times - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-40608253

Also 80% of Canada deaths from covid19 have been in care homes and over 90% of deaths have been in people over 65.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 03, 2020, 08:29:44 PM
The running total of excess deaths is about double that of a bad seasonal flu year. It is a huge achievement to have reduced the potential forecast of 600,000 COVID-19 deaths to something of the order of 10% or to the equivalent to a really bad seasonal flu year. I think you will find the seasonal flu excess deaths are included in the ONS excess deaths figures you have quoted.

The ONS excess death figures are only since the beginning of the spring CoViD-19 outbreak, so outwith the normal winter flu season. They will be in addition to the usual winter flu season excess deaths for this year. In any case, it has been a light winter flu season this year - excess deaths were running significantly below the 5 year average when CoViD cases began to appear in hospitals.

I think the statistic that stands out for me is that the UK represents less than 0.9% of the world's population, but has so far suffered 10% of the total number of fatalities, even if you use the Government's own death toll.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 03, 2020, 09:02:39 PM
"Britain's Coronavirus Catastrophe" on Channel 4 now
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on June 03, 2020, 09:31:19 PM
Fife is 10th out of the 11 areas for Coronavirus in Scotland; I am pleased to report. We have 4.3 cases per 100,000 population, but still far higher than 11th place Dumfries, on 1.3/100,000.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on June 03, 2020, 09:55:23 PM

NHS has been rated as best healthcare system several times - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-40608253

Also 80% of Canada deaths from covid19 have been in care homes and over 90% of deaths have been in people over 65.

That's one opinion. I am not quite sure they are comparing like with like.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-40608253 above:

"Only in one of the five themes looked at did the NHS perform poorly compared with the other nations - health outcomes. This covers general health of the population, early deaths and cancer survival among other measures."

Thats quite important!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-40608253 above:

"Kate Andrews, of free-market think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs, said the NHS was "far from being the envy of the world".

"The UK has one of the highest rates of avoidable deaths in western Europe, and tens of thousands of lives could be saved each year if NHS patients with serious conditions such as cancer were treated by social health insurance systems in neighbouring countries, such as Belgium and Germany.

"It is not just low-income earners who receive poor care, the NHS's provision of care is equally poor for everybody, irrespective of income."

I would add France to Belgium and Germany.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 03, 2020, 10:00:09 PM
"Britain's Coronavirus Catastrophe" on Channel 4 now

This is worth watching, starting on Channel 4+1 now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: zzaj on June 03, 2020, 10:01:07 PM

If anyone wants to follow a sound down to earth running appraisal, here is a useful link to Dr John Campbell.

https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos

Been following his commentary since the problem first broke out in China. No hype, no hysteria, just good old fashioned common sense backed by some professional knowledge and experience. The main problem with this particular strain of virus is the potentially higher spread rate (R value) among humans. Freeze that risk and it will struggle to thrive on the simple principle of prevention rather than cure. Hence lockdowns in bad affected areas. Trouble is, as always, too many clowns are waiting for the red alert and official statement of a crisis when it is arguably too late and then of course it will be the guvverment's fault...

True words. (From 8th March).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 03, 2020, 11:08:45 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-40608253 above:

"Kate Andrews, of free-market think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs, said the NHS was "far from being the envy of the world".

If I wanted an appraisal of the effectiveness of the NHS, I won't be listening to the opinion of a paid lobbyist for the US private healthcare industry.


I see that Business Secretary Alok Sharma is now self-isolating and has been tested for COVID-19, after looking decidedly ropey at the dispatch box today. I hope he's okay.

If he tests positive, will the 400-odd MPs that were present for the pantomine voting farce be forced to self-isolate by the track & trace? If it turns out that Sharma does indeed have the virus, and other MPs have been infected, there's going to be even more anger directed at Rees-Mogg for forcing them into this ludicrous charade.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 04, 2020, 08:31:18 AM

I see that Business Secretary Alok Sharma is now self-isolating and has been tested for COVID-19, after looking decidedly ropey at the dispatch box today. I hope he's okay.

If he tests positive, will the 400-odd MPs that were present for the pantomine voting farce be forced to self-isolate by the track & trace? If it turns out that Sharma does indeed have the virus, and other MPs have been infected, there's going to be even more anger directed at Rees-Mogg for forcing them into this ludicrous charade.

Madness. It's like something out of Monty Python. Still it'll give their track and trace system something to do. 400 MPs scattered all over the country to follow up. It doesn't matter that it won't be able to do anything else while it's fully occupied with MPs' contacts - just as long as they get the numbers up.
What's wrong with clicking a button on a computer to vote?
Hope nobody gets seriously ill because of this nonsense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on June 04, 2020, 08:31:49 AM
My wife has just recovered from cancer, and our NHS were flawless in their treatment of her. As soon as she reported her concerns, she was sent for diagnosis within two days. Once confirmed, she was immediately referred to an oncologist who, after test confirmed something even more severe than the cancer. She was quickly referred for surgery and operated on by the leading transplant surgeon in the country. As soon as she was fit enough for further surgery, she had the cancer surgery then started a protracted course of chemotherapy. Halfway through that, they started immunotherapy and as soon as the chemo was complete, despite Covid-19 she underwent radiotherapy. She has immunotherapy for the rest of the year and bone therapy for three years. And all at no point of treatment cost to us. Now that is the envy of the world.
Our NHS, hampered by successive governments, both red and blue, has done, still does and will continue to do a fantastic job.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Derkie54 on June 04, 2020, 08:58:27 AM
Best wishes to you and your wife Jocko, at this worrying time.
I have had cancer and agree with you regarding the NHS.
The service I got really was great and I've had no issues since 2012
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BIGFELLAH on June 04, 2020, 08:59:46 AM
My wife has just recovered from cancer, and our NHS were flawless in their treatment of her. As soon as she reported her concerns, she was sent for diagnosis within two days. Once confirmed, she was immediately referred to an oncologist who, after test confirmed something even more severe than the cancer. She was quickly referred for surgery and operated on by the leading transplant surgeon in the country. As soon as she was fit enough for further surgery, she had the cancer surgery then started a protracted course of chemotherapy. Halfway through that, they started immunotherapy and as soon as the chemo was complete, despite Covid-19 she underwent radiotherapy. She has immunotherapy for the rest of the year and bone therapy for three years. And all at no point of treatment cost to us. Now that is the envy of the world.
Our NHS, hampered by successive governments, both red and blue, has done, still does and will continue to do a fantastic job.

Well said Jocko I agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on June 04, 2020, 09:20:24 AM
I guess you have looked at normal annual excess deaths due to seasonal flu despite there being an established vaccination programme?

The running total of excess deaths is about double that of a bad seasonal flu year. It is a huge achievement to have reduced the potential forecast of 600,000 COVID-19 deaths to something of the order of 10% or to the equivalent to a really bad seasonal flu year. I think you will find the seasonal flu excess deaths are included in the ONS excess deaths figures you have quoted.

Whether you believe the current official total somewhere north of 30,000, or the ONS estimate of around 60,000 so far, is actually pretty immaterial. Even the lowest number is a calamitous disaster and compares badly with the original scientific idea that “less than 20,000 would be a good result”, and even less well with the many countries that have managed this better. That’s why Johnson needs to be held to account.

To suggest Johnson has deliberately "presided" over 60,000 deaths seems to be a little ungenerous bearing in mind he himself was seriously ill and, even now, does not yet seem to be fully physically recovered.

I did not use the word “deliberately”. Cock-up and misplaced optimism are much more likely here than conspiracy. All the big strategic matters, like the long-standing failure to heed the warnings from SARS & MERS (despite a pandemic being on the government’s central risk register), the policy vacillations (herd immunity, anyone?), and the late lockdown, were all the responsibility of central government, which is currently Johnson and his team. It happened on Johnson’s watch and as Harry Truman said, “the buck stops here”. So yes, “preside” is the right verb.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 04, 2020, 09:35:00 AM
Well said Jocko I agree.

I have not had much to do with hospital 'in-care' with NHS,  just a fractured skull (way back in early 1980's  ice skating ) and kidney stones in early 00's. I have to say NHS were great,  we are lucky to have so many dedicated people looking after us.  I am a bit miffed about waiting times for GP,  but looking at how many times I have actually had to see my GP it is not many.  I have used healthcare in two other countries - RSA ( early 1970's ) and Australia ( 1990's ) and they are both medicare systems where you pay up front and can reclaim the 'gap' amount between what you paid and what medicare 'fee' for that service was - you can get it back same day by going to local medicare service centre ( each town or city had one ).  If you wanted to see a 'better' doctor, dentist or surgeon you expected to pay more. If you were chronically ill or not very well off you could apply for 'bulk billing' option where all your medical bills went straight to medicare for payment.  Both systems used a system of private ( who had to be competitive on costs ) and government services,  your everyday GP appointments, x-rays, CAT, MRI,  blood tests etc. you normally went to private clinics - who were very efficient ( blood test results next day, X-ray etc you could take results with you ).   Most towns is Oz had 24 hour 'drop-in' medical centres where anyone could rock up and see a doctor quickly,  in UK people go to A&E instead and clog that up. Everyone entitled to medicare had a credit sized plastic swipe card with name and medicare number on it.

It seems to me that private sector doing routine stuff and hospitals doing what they do best worked very well and very efficient,  I really do think NHS today goes well past what was originally envisaged when it was set up,  which lets face it was basically to make sure people were kept fit enough to go to work.

Not sure that making UK GP's accountants rather than doctors has really worked, before that you could get a GP appointment same day if you were willing to wait in general morning or afternoon surgery,  now as I said 1 or 2 weeks wait is normal, so GP's get paid more, are much harder to see and always seem to send people to hospital anyway - even for routine things like a blood test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 04, 2020, 10:00:50 AM
We certainly have more than a few armchair experts on here who if things had been done their way would have resulted in less than 100 deaths and we would all be traveling around free as birds now. Every country seems to have done things differently,  they all seem to count 'covid deaths' differently, and the truth may never come out how many actually died from the virus or were collateral damage due to everything shutting down and people having to stay at home.  I started a thread on this virus on another forum way back in January saying it could be really bad and was ridiculed by many, I guess quite a few hats have been consumed in last 3 months or so.  in the old saying wawwa 'we are where we are' and all the words in the world won't change that. Seems to me that this virus may be around for a while and by locking down to stop its spread countries are just laying the groundwork for peaks in the future,  and if and when global travel by plane starts again we will see it zoom around the globe - along with other pathogens. Everything hangs on whether a vaccine can be made and that it imparts immunity, because some studies liken the SARS-CoV-2 virus to other coronavirus like common cold - which we never develop immunity to,  although SARS is much more potent than common cold.

Governments do not have unlimited money to pay peoples wages for long period and with people off work and no taxes coming in we are just building up a debt for younger people to pay off, many businesses may not re-open and the future holds increased unemployment and recession - not a great thing for younger people - as I have said before all governments have to balance many things up and nobody really knows whether virus is here to stay , will mutate into something better or worse or will be affected by warmer weather etc.   I am sure all the experts have their fingers crossed when making statements, they cannot really admit they don't know,  although that would be the honest  thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BIGFELLAH on June 04, 2020, 10:19:59 AM
We certainly have more than a few armchair experts on here


I Agree with you !!! some more than others??
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 04, 2020, 03:30:04 PM
And now for something completely different -------

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/04/uk-parliament-union-threatens-action-after-mps-queuing-chaos
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on June 04, 2020, 04:55:43 PM
Talking about the spread in care homes, it was brought home to me this morning while visiting my 95-year-old mother-in-law. While there her council supplied care worker came in to prepare her some lunch. No PPE what so ever. No mask, no gloves, no apron and she didn't wash her hands. When I pointed this out to her, she apologised and said she would go back to the car for it. I said it is rather late for that now. The carer had spent the morning visiting homes throughout Midlothian, one of the top hotspots in Scotland.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BIGFELLAH on June 04, 2020, 05:36:39 PM
Talking about the spread in care homes, it was brought home to me this morning while visiting my 95-year-old mother-in-law. While there her council supplied care worker came in to prepare her some lunch. No PPE what so ever. No mask, no gloves, no apron and she didn't wash her hands. When I pointed this out to her, she apologised and said she would go back to the car for it. I said it is rather late for that now. The carer had spent the morning visiting homes throughout Midlothian, one of the top hotspots in Scotland.

Good grief, how many occasions  I wonder has that happened, surely this should be mentioned to whoever is in charge.
I know the poor carer is probably run ragged but nonetheless common sense should rule.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 04, 2020, 05:44:20 PM
And now for something completely different -------

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/04/uk-parliament-union-threatens-action-after-mps-queuing-chaos

Best description I heard was Alastair Carmichael during the debate earlier today, he said it was like “exercise hour in a category C prison"  ;D

Yesterday, on the Parliament TV feed, the PM could seen chatting with groups of Conservative MPs just after PMQs, with zero social distancing. They clearly didn't realise the TV feed was still live.


Talking about the spread in care homes, it was brought home to me this morning while visiting my 95-year-old mother-in-law. While there her council supplied care worker came in to prepare her some lunch. No PPE what so ever. No mask, no gloves, no apron and she didn't wash her hands.

I read this earlier, Southampton city council are preparing to ask care home staff to volunteer to look after people with CoViD-19 without wearing PPE, if there are extreme shortages again.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/03/care-home-staff-could-be-asked-to-work-without-ppe-under-council-plan

I wonder if supply is already tight and they are being encouraged to use PPE sparingly, as they were doing in hospitals during the peak of admissions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 04, 2020, 06:37:44 PM
What happened to the 'world-beating' track and trace system in place by the beginning of June?

"NHS contact tracing system not expected to be fully operating until September."

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/04/nhs-track-and-trace-system-not-expected-to-be-operating-fully-until-september-coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on June 04, 2020, 07:13:12 PM
One organisation that won't come out of this smelling of roses is Public Health England [link removed by Admin]. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes the official scapegoat.

Being overweight or worse increases health problems yet I note that the recommended daily calorie intake remains at 2000 for women and 2500 for men https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2018/03/06/why-we-are-working-to-reduce-calorie-intake/ . I challenge the readers here to put their personal info and lifestyle into some of the online calorie calculators and see what they really need.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 04, 2020, 07:50:57 PM
One organisation that won't come out of this smelling of roses is Public Health England [link removed by Admin]. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes the official scapegoat.

I was thinking along the same lines. You can already hear ministers blaming the advice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 04, 2020, 08:21:58 PM
Good news is Alok Sharma has tested negative, although I had a feeling he might...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 05, 2020, 08:10:23 AM
Good news is Alok Sharma has tested negative, although I had a feeling he might...
Hope they'll learn from it but then ------

[link removed by Admin]

FFS
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/04/nhs-track-and-trace-system-not-expected-to-be-operating-fully-until-september-coronavirus

Edit added second link
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on June 05, 2020, 09:50:34 AM
We certainly have more than a few armchair experts on here who if things had been done their way would have resulted in less than 100 deaths

There is no need to be an armchair expert.

Just listen to what the Government  does first time - and the opposite is usually correct.

See banning public gatherings.
No use of face masks.
No quarantining of airline passengers.
"Care homes are safe " says PHE early in the pandemic. "Carers should live in care homes for four weeks" was its advice..

As for social distancing... judging by yesterday's Commons vote "do as I say, not as I do" appears to be its motto...

So you don't need brains to be an expert: just common sense..
Sadly lacking with a PM who rejected expert advice, kept shaking hands with people - and  spent more than a week in hoospital
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 05, 2020, 10:23:36 AM
So you don't need brains to be an expert: just common sense..
Sadly lacking with a PM who rejected expert advice, kept shaking hands with people - and  spent more than a week in hoospital

Well, he has got herd immunity now,  unlike all the ones sheltering who could get the virus at any time,  maybe later in the year or next year.......

Unfortunately common sense is not common,  and everyone seems to think that 'their' common sense is the best - we judge common sense ( as with most things ) by our own standards,  so it is subjective and not objective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 05, 2020, 11:05:30 AM
So you don't need brains to be an expert: just common sense..
Sadly lacking with a PM who rejected expert advice, kept shaking hands with people - and  spent more than a week in hoospital

Well, he has got herd immunity now,  unlike all the ones sheltering who could get the virus at any time

Is there any evidence to suggest that acquired herd immunity even exists for this virus, and is lasting? The government's instructions for those who are identified and contacted by the tracing teams is that they must self isolate, even if they have previously been tested CV positive.

Are there any armchair experts that can tell us?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on June 05, 2020, 11:28:03 AM
From what I have read, the scientists have no idea whether having contracted Covid-19 once you have any immunity at all. They believe from other coronaviruses that having contracted it once you are unlikely to be as ill the next time (possibly no symptoms at all). However, you can still infect others, perhaps with terminal results. After a few years of living with the virus, things may become more apparent, but at the moment, they seem to be working on the worst-case scenario and taking appropriate steps.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 05, 2020, 11:44:40 AM
From what I have read, the scientists have no idea whether having contracted Covid-19 once you have any immunity at all. They believe from other coronaviruses that having contracted it once you are unlikely to be as ill the next time (possibly no symptoms at all). However, you can still infect others, perhaps with terminal results. After a few years of living with the virus, things may become more apparent, but at the moment, they seem to be working on the worst-case scenario and taking appropriate steps.
I would agree with what you have written apart from your last statement about it being appropriate steps. They still don't know if  having had the virus imparts immunity or if it does how long it lasts.
In my view the releasing of the lockdown while there is still a high rate of infection and without a proper track and trace system in place is irresponsible.

Promises, promises
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/04/england-test-and-trace-what-senior-ministers-promised-and-when
 I'll post it again
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/04/nhs-track-and-trace-system-not-expected-to-be-operating-fully-until-september-coronavirus


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 05, 2020, 11:57:35 AM
Coronavirus includes common cold and nobody gets lasting immunity to that.... 

American company has made a RNA vaccine  ( apparently RNA can instruct bodies cells to make antibodies to virus ) - but RNA is so unstable that it has to be kept very cold ( like liquid nitrogen cold ) otherwise even at normal freezer / refrigerated transport temperatures it degrades in hours and becomes useless.

They are also looking at using common cold virus ( which is very good at getting into cells ) to carry genes into cells to give cells a preview of virus - like showing cell a mugshot of a known criminal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on June 05, 2020, 12:16:54 PM
I would agree with what you have written apart from your last statement about it being appropriate steps.
I don't consider what the UK government is doing "appropriate steps" either. What I meant were more severe steps than they may have done if immunity was proven.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on June 05, 2020, 12:27:14 PM

"The UK currently has the second highest coronavirus infection rate of any major European country"


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-infection-rate-is-second-highest-of-any-major-european-country-12000623
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 05, 2020, 12:53:41 PM

"The UK currently has the second highest coronavirus infection rate of any major European country"


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-infection-rate-is-second-highest-of-any-major-european-country-12000623
Good article.

"Finding new cases depends on the amount and quality of testing.
While other countries are also imperfect in this area, the UK has been heavily criticised for its testing regime. The head of the UK Statistics Authority has called it "inadequate" and the government has not published the number of people tested for almost two weeks. It says it is concerned some people who have taken more than one test might be double counted.
As the government continues to lift the lockdown, testing is a critical part of its strategy for monitoring the virus. The Test, Track and Trace programme is in its early stages and some of the scientists advising the government have warned it needs to be fully operational before restrictions are eased further. They also caution that the rate of infection is still too high for contract tracing to be effective.
Nevertheless, Professor Neal believes "contact tracing will help to discover the route of transmission and this will be vital for improving the control of COVID-19" in the UK."

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: VicW on June 05, 2020, 03:00:54 PM
Our leaders seem very good at closing the door after the horse has bolted.
Introducing a quarantine system for anyone arriving in this country should have been introduced three months ago but 'experts' decreed that it wouldn't have made much difference. until now of course.
Suddenly we may all have to wear a face covering if going into a shop, something else that was not deemed necessary three months ago but now looks like becoming compulsory.
Our local GP's surgery has just introduced a ruling that all people attending the surgery must wear a face covering, is this a NHS decision? Just a bit late I would have thought.

Vic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 05, 2020, 03:44:39 PM
From Sage Reports
Experts told UK to boost test-and-trace in February, papers show.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/experts-told-uk-to-boost-covid-19-test-and-trace-in-february-papers-show
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 05, 2020, 04:44:19 PM
And also in February 2020 from PM Boris Johnson's speech in Greenwich--
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-in-greenwich-3-february-2020

"And in that context, we are starting to hear some bizarre autarkic rhetoric, when barriers are going up, and when there is a risk that new diseases such as coronavirus will trigger a panic and a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational to the point of doing real and unnecessary economic damage, then at that moment humanity needs some government somewhere that is willing at least to make the case powerfully for freedom of exchange, some country ready to take off its Clark Kent spectacles and leap into the phone booth and emerge with its cloak flowing as the supercharged champion, of the right of the populations of the earth to buy and sell freely among each other."

Or in less flowery language " Dangers of this coronavirus have been greatly exaggerated. Britain is going to ignore the scaremongers and concentrate on the profit."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: richardfrost on June 05, 2020, 04:46:05 PM
Our leaders seem very good at closing the door after the horse has bolted.

As a nation, we don't really like being told what to do. At least not as much as nations like South Korea, for example. Where there has been no objection to installing apps on your phone and being traced and monitored.

I honestly believe that Boris thought herd immunity was a good idea until someone explained how it worked and how many people would have to die before it kicked in. I posted some weeks back about the stupidity of herd immunity when you don't actually have a reliable treatment for all of the many ways this virus attacks people.

So then I reckon they thought 'we'll get everyone indoors and locked down and then we don't need masks or tracking and tracing or all the other hard stuff'.

Then they realised the devastating effect lockdown was having on the economy and started to think about having to come out of it, without ever really making plans for any of the things that would need to happen.

I call this synchronous or serial thinking. One thing at a time. Maybe that's all they think we can deal with.

Right from the outset we had a great opportunity to learn from those nations ahead of us on the curve. Or from the 2016 simulations that they ran.

So now we are where we are and I am having to order masks, even though I have no intention of going near a bus, a train or back into my normal place of work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on June 05, 2020, 06:18:00 PM
"now we are where we are and I am having to order masks"

Sod that.
Spending money is not neeeded.
A scarf will do..

Or a used and washed maks.

Or anything that looks like a mask.

Does it matter if it works? No.

It is the edict of a bunch of out of their depth incompetents..

"Wearing face coverings will be compulsory on public transport in England from 15 June, the transport secretary has said.

Grant Shapps said "every precaution" must be taken as passenger numbers were expected to increase when lockdown measures were eased further.

Coverings must be worn on buses, trams, trains, coaches, aircraft and ..."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52927089

but "Very young children, disabled people and those with breathing difficulties would be exempt, he said."

So as long as you have a covering of any sort it will do. And the young and disabled or with breathing difficulties do not catch Covid -19..

You could not make it up... The Goodies would eviscerate Shapps...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on June 05, 2020, 06:21:30 PM
I have my mask which I wear when I go shopping. Masks have been requested in Scotland for several weeks now, for shopping and public transport, though they are not mandatory as yet.

(https://i.imgur.com/DpF13rb.jpg)

Watched Matt Hancock floundering on the Update this evening. Plain why none of the scientists were there. They didn't want to associate themselves with the rubbish he was spouting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 05, 2020, 06:47:03 PM
You can get face masks that mean your friends and phone will still recognise you..

https://www.boredpanda.com/mask-print-face-id-danielle-baskin/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic

Otherwise see attached PDF for new use for T-shirts

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on June 06, 2020, 02:23:12 PM
Don’t know about anyone else, but I’m thoroughly confused by some of the statistics that have appeared over the last few days:

1. R appears to be edging up, and may be at or slightly over the magic value of 1.0 in some areas. However R has a big error band if the total number of infections (the prevalence) is low so it's not clear if this is real. Having been told that R is the big metric to watch, why is HMG not acting to tighten things up again?
2. ONS survey has suggested prevalence of infection is now around 1 in 1000 in the general population, down from 1 in 400 a week ago. That sounds good, but probably lags reality.
3. We are told that the folks trying to develop a vaccine now can’t test it in the UK because the prevalence is so low, so they’re going to have to chase the virus to Brazil. That sounds good as well (for UK, not for Brazil).
4. Hospital admissions seem to be levelling out rather than continuing to decrease. That seems worrying.
5. The rolling average of the total number of deaths reported in every day’s briefing (noting the limitations of those numbers) looks to me to be levelling out if not showing a slight uptick. Coincidentally (or maybe not) this is 2-3 weeks after the start of easing the lockdown in England. Again, that sounds a bit worrying.
6. The figures for testing show ... well, who knows what’s going on there? Certainly not Matt Hancock.
7. And all this is in the face of HMG getting a fair drubbing from the UK Statistics Authority about the statistics being made available to the public.

What conclusions can be drawn from this lot? Personally, I can’t see if we’re heading in the right direction or if we’re starting to see the first indication of the feared second spike.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on June 06, 2020, 06:31:05 PM
"What conclusions can be drawn from this lot? Personally, I can’t see if we’re heading in the right direction or if we’re starting to see the first indication of the feared second spike."

Forget the scientific approach. Think the short term ( ie.. 2-3 weeks) political one.

Facts mean nothing.
Appearance is all.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 06, 2020, 08:42:41 PM
For the last 2 months the priority of the government has been to maximise the number of tests -never mind targetting or accuracy -double counting, counting tests posted out rather than returned etc.
It's little wonder the statistics derived from these tests are meaningless.
The R values, by the nature of the way they are calculated are retrospective and if the only reliable method of measuring the change in the prevalence of the virus is by counting deaths then they will be about three weeks out of date.
By the time any increase in infection rate is noted it would be very difficult to mitigate it and it wouldn't look good to reverse changes just recently implemented. The infection rate should have been reduced much further before relaxation of the lockdown was started so that their was more margin of error.
As Madasafish says "Appearance is all" to this government.
No wonder the scientists and medics are warning of the dangers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/06/prime-minister-told-to-dump-rhetoric-and-plan-for-new-covid-wave
https://www.ft.com/content/26eaa9cd-021c-48e2-95ae-342e2f2cad37

Edit added last link
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: John Ratsey on June 06, 2020, 08:59:44 PM
As people get more mobile and facilities reopen then the R values are likely to pick up in areas which didn't see much of the virus during the March-April peak because those areas have much bigger reservoirs of people waiting to be infected. I doubt if there will be a second peak in those areas which have already suffered badly as the virus will have more difficulty in finding people who haven't already been infected. The majority of the population won't tolerate increasing the lockdown again and they'll just follow Cummings leadership. As long as the most vulnerable are protected (which didn't happen in March) then the hospitals are unlikely to be overloaded.

BTW, more discussion about the likelihood of the virus actively spreading here before it officially arrived https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52935644 . However, there appears to be no enthusiasm by the NHS, Public Health England or the politicians to verify the speculation by those who, retrospectively, think they or family had the virus due to what are now known to be symptoms. Earlier arrival means that the estimates of R value and those who may have been infected would need to be recalculated. If it was here a month or two earlier then perhaps it doesn't spread as well as originally deduced.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on June 07, 2020, 07:24:54 AM
For the last 2 months the priority of the government has been to maximise the number of tests -never mind targetting or accuracy -double counting, counting tests posted out rather than returned etc.
Testing was never a priority, it was actually stopped in the early days. The priority has always been to protect the NHS. Even if that means clearing the decks by shipping untested elderly patients - who may well have been asymptomatic - out of hospitals to care homes without worrying about the consequences, and redeploying staff and resources away from other important services.

... it wouldn't look good to reverse changes just recently implemented.
Yeah, that’s what worries me. BoJo yet again making a political decision that’s in his interests but not necessarily ours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 07, 2020, 10:28:48 AM
As long as the most vulnerable are protected (which didn't happen in March) then the hospitals are unlikely to be overloaded.

Well Sweden said they were protecting vulnerable people while allowing majority to carry on - that worked well didn't it   https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52704836

Quote from BBC article

"They told us that we shouldn't send anyone to the hospital, even if they may be 65 and have many years to live. We were told not to send them in," says Latifa L�nberg, a nurse who worked in several care homes around Gävle, north of Stockholm, at the beginning of the pandemic.


Canada also had over 80% of their deaths in care homes and 90% of deaths are people over 65.

We need to face the fact that we have a large pool of vulnerable people in UK,  some of it due to NHS success over the years keeping frail people with several underlying conditions alive,  and a sizeable BAME population who are more likely to be diabetic and have heart disease than 'natives' ( for want of a better word  LOL ).

I would put good money on the majority of government critics / Boris bashers on here not being young people.  There never was a silver bullet / one size fits all option for government,  every government around the world probably followed 'expert' advice with varying success,  no government can afford to trash economy and sorry to say it was always going to be a balancing act between number of deaths / overwhelming NHS / and economy.  The youngsters will never forgive old people for forcing policies that condemn them to massive future debt and unemployment.

There are theories that population in places like South Korea and Japan may be more resistant to virus than other countries, we may find it was that and not the 'track and trace' apps that meant they have done better than others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 07, 2020, 10:59:22 AM
For the last 2 months the priority of the government has been to maximise the number of tests -never mind targetting or accuracy -double counting, counting tests posted out rather than returned etc.
Testing was never a priority, it was actually stopped in the early days.The priority has always been to protect the NHS.
Yes That was a big mistake. They should never have ramped up the testing right from the start before the spread of the virus got out of hand. The priority was not to let the NHS get overwhelmed.

But we are where we are now.


Well Sweden said they were protecting vulnerable people while allowing majority to carry on - that worked well didn't it   https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52704836

That's effectively what the UK was doing at the start too.




I would put good money on the majority of government critics / Boris bashers on here not being young people.  There never was a silver bullet / one size fits all option for government,  every government around the world probably followed 'expert' advice with varying success,  no government can afford to trash economy and sorry to say it was always going to be a balancing act between number of deaths / overwhelming NHS / and economy. 

Boris is set on a course of achieving the worst of both worlds -killing off tens of thousands (perhaps hundreds of thousands) of people and wrecking the economy by coming out of lockdown too soon ( probably necessitating a further lockdown with even worse economic consequences and as Colin B says it's not going to be easy to get people to accept it)

  The youngsters will never forgive old people for forcing policies that condemn them to massive future debt and unemployment.


Agreed



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on June 07, 2020, 11:21:27 AM
Japan may be more resistant to virus than other countries.
Obesity is one of the main factors in surviving Covid-19, and Japan has one of the lowest levels of obesity in the world and certainly in the "modern" world.

Regarding infections in care homes. When Scotland dealt with the problem of "Delayed Discharge" by sending old people into care homes without a negative test, there were instructions in place that the care homes were to treat them as possibly infected and they were to be isolated in the care home for 14 days. Whether this was not done due to no isolation or lack of PPE or whatever will probably come to lighting in months to come. There will have to be a Public Enquiry. Most of the infected care homes, but not all, are private enterprises, run for profit, and if Skye is anything to go by, corners cut.
The same care home that have just increased the charges to residents by £100/week to cover their Covid costs! The care homes who did not put staff forward for testing because they could not afford a positive test to see staff being sent home to self-isolate.
The police and procurator fiscal are involved in the care home in Skye, and after the Public Enquiry, I am sure further care home managers and owners will feel the full weight of the law.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on June 07, 2020, 12:04:57 PM
I am elderly (72).
I am niot naive enough to expect any Government to solve the Covid -19 problem without making a few mistakes  . The virus was new, relatively unknown and spreading rapidly.

But I DO expect a Government  - especially when the pandemic start was some two weeks behind other EC countries -
to learn from others' mistakes,
to use best practise form other countries,
and to take a balanced viewpoint..

Instead we had policies adopted only to be reversed days later - eg herd immunity, the shambles of testing  and Public Health England "obfuscating"
  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/07/phes-inability-deliver-mass-testing-delayed-easing-lockdown/

And now when it's half way through we are quarantining incoming passengers...and have no analysis of how many are tested and where the sources of infection are.. or if we have it, teh Government is not sharing it..

As I said up top, I do not expect perfection but downright incompetence is inexcusable..  Any company run like this would have had a shareholders' revolt and the Board fired..

If I were young, I would be very unhappy at the combination of record high deaths (incompetence)  and high borroiwngs.. And it is all due to the Government and PHE...

As an OAP I had no say in any of the decisions made.. Don't blame OAPs...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 07, 2020, 12:08:45 PM
It is very hard to deal with something you cannot see, is so small you can fit 1000 of them in width of a human hair, and can remain viable on surfaces for a long time.  It is no good blaming any government except the one in Beijing for this virus, it was bought into humans by their ridiculous attitude to bush meat - and selling live and uncooked meats from wild animals to the public ( like Pangolins and Bats ), same thing happened in Africa with ebola ( from bat meat ) but lucky for us ebola does not travel well.  Pangolins are one of the most endangered species in the world thanks to Chinese,  and most of the other endangered animals have China in their sorry tale as well,  due to their governments complete failure to control trade in wild animals,  and don't even mention shark fin soup where fins are cut off sharks and the still living but finless shark thrown back into sea. China also covered up this virus from the rest of the world until after they had lost control of it and there was no hiding it any more,  they treat rest of world with contempt but are happy enough to take our money.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-17/what-are-wet-markets-in-china/12159920

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ebola-virus-disease

MERS was another coronavirus that passed from camels to humans in middle east,  luckily it does not spread easily.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 07, 2020, 12:56:41 PM
It is very hard to deal with something you cannot see, is so small you can fit 1000 of them in width of a human hair, and can remain viable on surfaces for a long time.  It is no good blaming any government except the one in Beijing

Of course you can blame "any government except the one in Beijing".

You can blame HM Government for the mistakes and a generally piss poor response that has cost thousands of lives. We all know where it came from, but every government has a responsibility to protect its own citizens. Instead, ours watched it developing in other countries and crossed their fingers.

Epidemiologist Professor John Edmunds, who is a member of Sage, said on Marr this morning,

Quote
We should have gone into lockdown earlier. I think it would have been hard to do it, I think the data that we were dealing with in the early part of March and our kind of situational awareness was really quite poor. And so I think it would have been very hard to pull the trigger at that point but I wish we had - I wish we had gone into lockdown earlier. I think that has cost a lot of lives unfortunately.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Jocko on June 07, 2020, 01:23:41 PM
And then Matt Hancock had the affrontery to deny that and say it hadn't led to more deaths. Just as well he is earmarked to be Boris's scapegoat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 07, 2020, 02:07:38 PM
It is very hard to deal with something you cannot see, is so small you can fit 1000 of them in width of a human hair, and can remain viable on surfaces for a long time. 
That's why they need an efficient test, track and trace system -not so that they can bung 30,000 kits in the post and claim to have met a target of 200,000 per day, or pay Serco vast amounts of money to hire 18,000 untrained call centre staff to sit and twiddle their thumbs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 07, 2020, 03:44:30 PM
All this 'i wish we had done this earlier,  or done something different and it may have saved a lot of lives' is the same old 20 / 20 hindsight thing.  Nobody knows what would have happened - Chinese knew very well how bad it was and just like in 2003 SARS-1 virus they chose to hide it as long as possible. Also because they were still letting people  move around wthin China and also international travel to and from China  for new year ( they should have stopped it ) the next thing we know the virus is already in most of the countries of the world.  China is not a trustworthy citizen of the world,  maybe 'inscrutable' is another word for 'lying, secretive and untrustworthy'....

The Chinese knew about the virus from early December 2019 ( that is the date they admitted to, but probably before that ), plenty of time to stop people moving from mid-January for Chinese New Year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: madasafish on June 07, 2020, 05:15:53 PM
  China is not a trustworthy citizen of the world,  maybe 'inscrutable' is another word for 'lying, secretive and untrustworthy'....



So remind me ho many people have bneen tested in the UK, where is our "world leading Ttest and trace system" and why do UK deaths figures keep being adjusted retrospectively?

"'lying, secretive and untrustworthy'...."see the UK Government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 07, 2020, 05:20:05 PM
All this 'i wish we had done this earlier,  or done something different and it may have saved a lot of lives' is the same old 20 / 20 hindsight thing.  Nobody knows what would have happened

You say that, but some countries must have had an idea.

The WHO warned about the severity of the virus at the end on January, some locked down earlier and harder, and others had an aggressive testing and isolation policy. The fact that we have one of the worst death tolls in the world is nothing to do with the absence of hindsight, it's because we did neither of those things effectively. Nor is it anything to be proud of.

All these countries that performed better than the UK, and that's most developed countries, did not have crystal balls.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on June 07, 2020, 05:51:16 PM
All this 'i wish we had done this earlier,  or done something different and it may have saved a lot of lives' is the same old 20 / 20 hindsight thing. 

The problem with that argument is that it doesn’t fit the facts. The countries that are suffering the horrendous death tolls - US, UK, Brazil - are the ones whose leaders stuck their heads in the sand and hoped it would all go away. Other more enlightened nations - NZ, Germany, Japan, Korea - saw exactly the same signs, acted early and decisively, and have not had the obscene numbers of deaths. So why didn’t our leaders do that, why didn’t they pick up on the same cues that the less-badly affected nations did? That wasn’t China’s fault, it can only be down to the quality of the leadership.

Oh, and blaming another nation for the failings of your own is just ridiculous. “Sir, sir, it wasn’t me sir, China did it!” Really?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 07, 2020, 06:58:52 PM

Oh, and blaming another nation for the failings of your own is just ridiculous. “Sir, sir, it wasn’t me sir, China did it!” Really?

Denying that China is responsible just not credible, like blaming British government for the Blitz in WW2 because our government could not stop it....

https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/how-china-hid-tens-of-thousands-of-virus-deaths/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ColinB on June 07, 2020, 07:30:35 PM

Oh, and blaming another nation for the failings of your own is just ridiculous. “Sir, sir, it wasn’t me sir, China did it!” Really?

Denying that China is responsible just not credible, like blaming British government for the Blitz in WW2 because our government could not stop it....

https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/how-china-hid-tens-of-thousands-of-virus-deaths/

The point at issue is not whether the virus came from China, or what China did or did not do. The point at issue is what the UK government did when they knew the virus was coming. China's actions are completely irrelevant to that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 07, 2020, 07:48:05 PM
Denying that China is responsible just not credible, like blaming British government for the Blitz in WW2 because our government could not stop it....

Totally false analogy, unless the bombs dropped during the blitz took weeks to fall to the ground.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 07, 2020, 08:00:23 PM
All this 'i wish we had done this earlier,  or done something different and it may have saved a lot of lives' is the same old 20 / 20 hindsight thing.
What frightens me is that the UK government does not appeared to have learned anything from their mistakes of three months ago and seems to be about to leave the lockdown with a similar lack of preparedness to that with which they faced the prospect of the spread of the virus initially.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/07/we-need-a-strategy-senior-clinicians-fear-uk-has-no-plan-for-second-wave

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-matt-hancock-sage-john-edmunds-peak-a9552961.html

Edit
Added 2nd link
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: culzean on June 07, 2020, 08:12:32 PM
Denying that China is responsible just not credible, like blaming British government for the Blitz in WW2 because our government could not stop it....

Totally false analogy, unless the bombs dropped during the blitz took weeks to fall to the ground.

We had been at war for about 12 months when the Blitz happened, and lasted 9 months so plenty of time for any responsible government to prepare ( well they did move children out of cities ) - but then why not move everyone out of cities, why leave the older people to get killed ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sparky Paul on June 07, 2020, 10:57:38 PM
We had been at war for about 12 months when the Blitz happened, and lasted 9 months so plenty of time for any responsible government to prepare

Plenty of time to move 8½ million people out of London? Where exactly would they have housed them in 1940?

Getting back to the matter at hand, nobody is denying that the virus originated in China, or saying that the Chinese state has acted with complete honesty. However, none of that absolves our government of their responsibility to their own citizens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: JimSh on June 08, 2020, 12:25:17 PM
Interesting article about handling of Covid-19 on Shetland

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-52823510?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

Compare with

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/08/new-zealand-abandons-covid-19-restrictions-after-nation-declared-no-cases

and then
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-pubs-restaurants-open-date-hospitality-beer-garden-a9553621.html

"The Sunday Times and Financial Times reported that a group of six ministers calling themselves the “Save Summer Six” have been tasked with trying to reopen as much of the economy as possibly this summer.

Boris Johnson is believed to have asked business secretary Alok Sharma to make the case for cutting the UK’s social distancing rule to one metre to allow more businesses to resume trading."

Impatien