Author Topic: Electric cars  (Read 693932 times)

guest1372

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #435 on: November 07, 2017, 11:36:06 PM »
.... Having said that, a self driving vehicle, on a road like you quoted, will probably be a lot safer than most drivers. It won't push on just because it is a 4x4 and will intimidate smaller vehicles, it will more easily be able to compute the speed of oncoming vehicles, using its sophisticated LIDAR
Don't forget, the cars will talk to each other probably before they can see each other, plus the benefits of collective intelligence about road conditions, hazards, obstacles etc.  They same as the benefits we get from collective speed data harvested from sat nav apps on the phone.
--
TG

Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #436 on: November 08, 2017, 07:10:57 AM »
Waymo, Google's autonomous vehicle wing, is extending their driverless taxi system in a couple of months.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/07/google-waymo-announces-fully-autonomous-ride-hailing-service-uber-alphabet

From Waymo's own website:
Like many Americans, Ted, Candace and their four kids have a busy driving routine — heading to work, to school, soccer practice, student council, choir rehearsal and more. Except Ted and Candace aren’t commuting in a typical car. Over the last month, this family, along with a handful of Phoenix, AZ residents, has been riding around in Waymo’s fleet of self-driving vehicles. They’re among the very first people in the world to take part in Waymo’s early rider program.
Now, residents in the Phoenix area can apply to join Candace, Ted, and their family in the early rider program. Over the course of this trial, we’ll be accepting hundreds of people with diverse backgrounds and transportation needs who want to ride in and give feedback about Waymo’s self-driving cars. Rather than offering people one or two rides, the goal of this program is to give participants access to our fleet every day, at any time, to go anywhere within an area that’s about twice the size of San Francisco.


So, say what you like, the future is here, whether you want it or not.

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #437 on: November 08, 2017, 09:21:31 AM »
Waymo, Google's autonomous vehicle wing, is extending their driverless taxi system in a couple of months.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/07/google-waymo-announces-fully-autonomous-ride-hailing-service-uber-alphabet

From Waymo's own website:
Like many Americans, Ted, Candace and their four kids have a busy driving routine — heading to work, to school, soccer practice, student council, choir rehearsal and more. Except Ted and Candace aren’t commuting in a typical car. Over the last month, this family, along with a handful of Phoenix, AZ residents, has been riding around in Waymo’s fleet of self-driving vehicles. They’re among the very first people in the world to take part in Waymo’s early rider program.
Now, residents in the Phoenix area can apply to join Candace, Ted, and their family in the early rider program. Over the course of this trial, we’ll be accepting hundreds of people with diverse backgrounds and transportation needs who want to ride in and give feedback about Waymo’s self-driving cars. Rather than offering people one or two rides, the goal of this program is to give participants access to our fleet every day, at any time, to go anywhere within an area that’s about twice the size of San Francisco.


So, say what you like, the future is here, whether you want it or not.

Waymo are not allowed to unleash driverless cars on the roads of California where their headquarters is,  even in Pheonix they still have a technician in the car.

Quote from NY times article ..............

"And though the cars are driverless, they are not entirely without humans, at least for now. Waymo employees sit in the back seat of the cars, monitoring them, a company spokesman, Johnny Luu, said."


Some of the challenges facing driverless cars that humans take in their stride everyday,

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/07/technology/autonomous-car-technology-challenges.html?action=click&contentCollection=Technology&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article

And apparently Uber lied that one of their employees was driving the car when it drove through  a red light in San Francisco, some employees blew the whistle later................

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/24/technology/anthony-levandowski-waymo-uber-google-lawsuit.html?action=click&contentCollection=Technology&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article
« Last Edit: November 08, 2017, 09:32:01 AM by culzean »
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peteo48

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #438 on: November 08, 2017, 11:01:52 AM »
There's no doubt in my mind that autonomous cars are the future. Alongside that will come the end of individual car ownership - you will just hail one on an App and, once it has got you there, it will go on and respond to another call. This means, instead of 30 million lumps of metal cluttering up the place you might be able to manage with 10% of that number given that stats suggest the average car is unused for 90% of its time.

My fear is that people are getting ahead of themselves. This is going to take a long time and there is considerable consumer resistance. I don't expect to see the fully autonomous future in my lifetime and it might not be for another 30 or 40 years.

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #439 on: November 08, 2017, 11:28:41 AM »
There's no doubt in my mind that autonomous cars are the future. Alongside that will come the end of individual car ownership - you will just hail one on an App and, once it has got you there, it will go on and respond to another call. This means, instead of 30 million lumps of metal cluttering up the place you might be able to manage with 10% of that number given that stats suggest the average car is unused for 90% of its time.

My fear is that people are getting ahead of themselves. This is going to take a long time and there is considerable consumer resistance. I don't expect to see the fully autonomous future in my lifetime and it might not be for another 30 or 40 years.

Auto cars will be like trains and buses, there will have to be enough capacity to cover peaks, and unlike trains and buses people will not be allowed to be standing up and crammed into cars like 'battery' animals. There will also be empty auto cars running around,  I am sure many kids will find themselves packed off to school while parent does other stuff like having extra time in bed.  I have seen many articles saying that when people are relieved from 'chore' of driving there will be a movement of people further out into suburbia for cheaper housing with a large increase in commuting.  I still remember all the hype about people working from home and the paperless office when computers came in, never turned out like that at all, people still travel long distances to work at an office or factory,  and the amount of paper used has increased exponentially.

I agree we are still very much in the 'beta' stage of autonomy, much more proving and testing to be done,  the day an autonomous car ploughs into another car or pedestrians it will put a brake on things, because it will be a generic car / software problem, not the fault of an individual driver (as Uber tried to claim in SF).
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #440 on: November 08, 2017, 12:17:07 PM »
Coldest day we have had for a while, 45GW demand (just on edge of amber zone), 85% of power being supplied by Gas, nuclear, coal, hydro and biomass.  Come on renewables - you have cost taxpayer great deal but fail to deliver when we need it - if it had been even lightly cloudy today we would have lost the bit of solar we had and it would have been well over 90% from 'non-renewable' sources.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2017, 02:56:49 PM by culzean »
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Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #441 on: November 08, 2017, 12:27:15 PM »
Solar doing well today. Just no wind.

peteo48

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #442 on: November 08, 2017, 01:30:29 PM »
I think the other thing that will put a brake on full autonomy is economics. Car manufacturers are still making conventional cars and there are no immediate plans to stop. There is a huge amount of equity in people's cars and a lot of debt as well. This is going to take some managing as we transition to a new model. I have heard people airily talk about scrappage schemes but it would have to be one almighty scrappage scheme to take, say, 20 million cars off the road to be replaced by autonomous vehicles that can be summoned as and when.

It's why people are getting ahead of themselves - this is going to take a long long time and there will be difficulties along the way.

Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #443 on: November 08, 2017, 02:01:51 PM »
People like me, where a car purchase is a distress purchase, will probably be the first to change. If you cannot afford a car why buy one. Go down the autonomous cab route. Those in the know reckon it could be on par with a bus fare, for trips around town. Just so much more convenient. This will depress used car prices dramatically, so the people who have bought new will hold on to their cars for longer. When they eventually need to replace their vehicle then they too will go down the autonomous route.
It will all come down to economics. While it is cheaper to own and use your own car then autonomous vehicles wont have a great take up. The first to change are the people who use taxis and Uber style hires. Many of those don't own cars at the moment. The young will lap them up too. Many young people have no interest in learning to drive (I had my provisional for my 17th birthday and was out on the road that morning). My two grandsons have no interest in car ownership or learning to drive. Why should they. They like to go out drinking with mates, they live with their girlfriends (no need for a back seat) and taxis are a way of life for them.
Eventually, and it may take a few years, autonomous car hire will be so convenient and much cheaper than owning a car, so why should want the expense. People may still have the odd car for high days and holidays. Brought out in the summer, just as many born again bikers do with their machines.
There is no denying it. It will happen, like it or not. And probably sooner than many of us think.

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #444 on: November 08, 2017, 02:54:30 PM »
https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/06/22/what-will-car-ownership-look-like-in-the-future/#4febf6c66b99

It seems that Uber is displacing bus, train and taxis more than car ownership, this article says that cost of transport does not figure large in a lot of peoples minds - he cites the case of people who live in a city or suburbs but own a boat that needs to be towed around a couple of times a year - you would expect them to buy a small car for their mainly urban lifestyle and hire a 4X4 a couple of times a year to tow the boat,  but no they will buy and run a 4X4 for the whole time.  I know there is some truth in this because two of my brothers had boats and until recently they had 4X4 vehicles to tow the boat occasionally (they are a bit old to enjoy the boats now and have plumped for large estate cars).

http://economicstudents.com/2013/05/the-irrationality-of-the-rationality-assumption/

So another skill will be lost to humanity - driving,  which done properly is a proper brain workout.  They tested some drivers on a program the other day and asked them to do tasks while driving (counting backwards from 100, answering questions etc.), vast majority failed to do both,  some highly trained Police drivers took part and they admitted they couldn't do both but concentrated on the driving rather than allow their brain to be distracted by other tasks like the others did.

Autonomous cars is just continuing the really bad trend of more and more of the worlds technology and knowledge being compressed into fewer and fewer large corporations, and dumbing down the world for everyone else.

Best part of 10 million peoples jobs in USA are linked to transportation and are at risk, I don't have figure for UK but it will be a lot of people at risk of losing their job.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2017, 03:53:49 PM by culzean »
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peteo48

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #445 on: November 08, 2017, 03:18:48 PM »
2 interesting posts above and I agree with both of them in different ways!

Jocko is right, I think, about how the transition may happen. He is also right about the attitude of the young to driving. It has become ludicrously expensive to get on the road with insurance being a particular bug bear. If you fancy a drink then a car is a flippin' nuisance to be honest. Tomorrow we are meeting my cousin and her husband for a meal. The restaurant requires me to drive so half a shandy or an alcohol free beer tops for me whilst my wife and the other 2 glug a few glasses of Malbec. I just hate that (taxi would be £80 btw).

There is also a long standing migration of people to city centre type locations. If you live in London then a car is largely superfluous as it is in some other cities like Manchester with a decent tram system.

All these have seen a steep decline in new drivers.

But Culzean is also right about the dumbing down thing. How far do we want technology to replace human skills? A future where you ask Alexa to pour you a beer, cook you a meal and then summon up a ride is a future of pure vegetation. I think it's interesting that there are movements towards relearning some of the old skills like growing food on allotments etc.

madasafish

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #446 on: November 08, 2017, 04:25:55 PM »
All very well for the urban young to have no cars: lots of choice..

Those who live at the edge of /in the country/small towns have zero choice: bus?  err none /slow. taxi? cost?  metro/underground? none...

Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #447 on: November 08, 2017, 04:36:06 PM »
Those who live at the edge of /in the country/small towns have zero choice: bus?  err none /slow. taxi? cost?  metro/underground? none...
This is perfectly correct but I still see a future where you will be catered for by an autonomous vehicle. You may well own it, instead of hire it. But even if it is not autonomous, I'd like to bet it will be electric (or whatever comes along to replace EVs!).

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #448 on: November 08, 2017, 05:09:09 PM »
Go down the autonomous cab route. Those in the know reckon it could be on par with a bus fare, for trips around town. Just so much more convenient.
It will all come down to economics. While it is cheaper to own and use your own car then autonomous vehicles wont have a great take up. The first to change are the people who use taxis and Uber style hires. Many of those don't own cars at the moment. The young will lap them up too. Many young people have no interest in learning to drive (I had my provisional for my 17th birthday and was out on the road that morning). My two grandsons have no interest in car ownership or learning to drive. Why should they. They like to go out drinking with mates, they live with their girlfriends (no need for a back seat) and taxis are a way of life for them.


Those who live at the edge of /in the country/small towns have zero choice: bus?  err none /slow. taxi? cost?  metro/underground? none...
This is perfectly correct but I still see a future where you will be catered for by an autonomous vehicle. You may well own it, instead of hire it. But even if it is not autonomous, I'd like to bet it will be electric (or whatever comes along to replace EVs!).

Many millennials stay with their parents far too long, they are too comfortable and have no get-up-and-go.  They may prefer to rent a small city apartment as an easy option for a while but soon the suburbs will call..............

https://www.inc.com/dustin-mckissen/studies-show-millennials-are-moving-to-suburbs-employers-are-following.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/axiometrics/2017/05/02/will-millennials-follow-in-parents-home-buying-footsteps/#2fb401e13b3b
« Last Edit: November 08, 2017, 05:12:51 PM by culzean »
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Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #449 on: November 09, 2017, 06:45:15 AM »
Many of you will be delighted to see that a driverless shuttle bus, in Las Vegas, was involved in a crash within two hours of starting the trial.
In its favour was the fact that the bus stopped when an artic started to reverse back into an alley. The lorry didn't, and eventually struck the front of the bus. Not a lot the bus could have done, assuming it was programmed to deal with the situation, as a car had stopped behind it. Having said that, as an ex bus driver, our written SOP was NEVER to reverse the bus except at a bus station or the bus garage. In a similar situation our priority was to stop the bus and keep the passengers safe, not to worry about the vehicle getting damaged. Never mind though. The naysayers will have a field day.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/11/08/self-operating-shuttle-bus-crashes-after-las-vegas-launch/


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