Author Topic: Electric cars  (Read 694218 times)

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1050 on: October 20, 2018, 07:37:27 PM »
]The SNP like to proclaim their energy independence, and point to the jobs created and income generated for the country. In reality, these are hollow claims.

Very few permanent jobs result from wind power, and most of the money goes to rich landowners and the banks and (mostly foreign owned) who finance and operate the wind farms.[/i]
Where did the SNP come into it. Scottish Power is Spanish owned.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-15578344

Been SNP policy for many years now to go fully renewable, energy companies are driven by government policy.
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Kenneve

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1051 on: October 20, 2018, 07:54:15 PM »
Have just checked the Gridwatch website at 19.50 hrs. Total UK demand was 33.76Gw of which only 10.9% was wind power. It seems we have long way to go??

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1052 on: October 20, 2018, 08:32:38 PM »
Have just checked the Gridwatch website at 19.50 hrs. Total UK demand was 33.76Gw of which only 10.9% was wind power. It seems we have long way to go??

https://stopthesethings.com/2018/09/13/german-wind-power-fails-again-coal-fired-power-prevents-return-to-dark-ages/

https://www.tdworld.com/generation-and-renewables/myth-german-renewable-energy-miracle

Germany has had long experience of renewables and I have seen articles from there that say as long as renewables are a small part of the system they are OK, the problems start when your renewables become a significant part of the power supply, every renewable source needs 100% backup from conventional nuclear or gas. On some very cold but wind less winter days last in UK last year wind was only a few % of total, with coal, nuclear and gas working flat out to supply over 40GW of power ( and importing power as well ).  We also nearly ran out of gas last winter, why we have to use gas for generating electrical power I do not know (except that gas fired stations are cheap to build and quick to come on line), when gas can be used in heating boilers at over 90% efficiency we are using gas to generate electricity to heat homes at a much lower efficiency ).
« Last Edit: October 21, 2018, 12:25:07 PM by culzean »
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richardfrost

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1053 on: October 25, 2018, 10:21:47 AM »
General consensus that Tesla may have turned a corner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45971786

Not so sure myself. Electric propulsion is definitely the future. Plug-in charging is the bit I am very sceptical about. But it seems Tesla may have reached a tipping point for now.

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1054 on: October 25, 2018, 10:28:25 AM »
General consensus that Tesla may have turned a corner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45971786

Not so sure myself. Electric propulsion is definitely the future. Plug-in charging is the bit I am very sceptical about. But it seems Tesla may have reached a tipping point for now.

I would not trust Musk as far as I could throw him with one arm tied behind my back !  this may be just another one of his ploys to try and give Tsla some credibility,  maybe borrowed the money off his mate or from Saudi and put it on the black side of the balance sheet to cock a snoot at market regulators and stop the freefall in share price.  Would not be the first time he has tried to meddle with share prices.

The reaction from many analysts is that 'one swallow does not make a summer' and headwinds are coming - the companies first profitable quarter since 2013 may be just a spike due to number of high spec model 3 and other high end models,  the real crunch will be if the cheaper more affordable model 3 variants ( that Tesla has not sold too many of up to now) are profitable or are made at a loss.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/25/heres-what-wall-street-analysts-had-to-say-about-tesla-earnings.html
« Last Edit: October 25, 2018, 01:06:48 PM by culzean »
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sparky Paul

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1055 on: October 25, 2018, 11:57:59 PM »
Some interesting comment in the financial world, but the no.5 selling car by volume and no.1 by revenue is not to be sniffed at.

https://electrek.co/2018/10/24/tesla-model-3-best-selling-revenue-gross-margin/?fbclid=IwAR2iWQzw59IJeECniM3IX9brpFCjqYHYf8FYGu-yz5mTyZKj-wIvk-5pCKI

Note the comment at the end, "Exciting times…unless you are a short."

MartinJG

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1056 on: October 26, 2018, 12:08:41 AM »

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1057 on: October 26, 2018, 09:33:13 AM »
Saw this the other day.

Since cars have been made it has been standard procedure for rival car makers to buy and strip models and see how they are put together ( the car industry is like a goldfish bowl where everyone knows what everyone else is doing and how they are doing it,  and staff move between companies as well ).  This is how Ford knew that Austin were making every Mini at a loss (and they were). Funny that they say suspension is too big and heavy because Tesla are infamous for wheels breaking away and ripping the suspension arms with them.  Maybe it is the extra weight of the battery ?  The other car makers know that these are high end models,  which should have a bigger profit margin than lower end mass produced models.  Tesla has so far ( until last quarter ) failed to make a profit, the profit last quarter was from selling model S and very high spec model 3 cars,  which sell for a premium - when they start making more base model 3 cars (nearer $30k  than $60k) their profit margin will drop.  Car makers know from the number of employees, the way the cars are made and how many parts are in the car how much it cost to make, what they are saying is the body is way too complicated,  too many welds and parts compared to mainstream car makers.  If the body is too rigid (not enough crumple zones) then in the event of a crash the occupants take the force instead of the crumple zones.   Car makers work to pence on each component,  and expect suppliers to DROP their prices year on year and the equipment used to make the parts gets paid for and the company gets better at making parts), All they are saying is that the tech is OK but the labour intensive parts of the car are costing Tesla too much to be competitive at the lower prices they are aiming to sell cars at,  and I believe the US electric car rebate will disappear soon.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2018, 09:48:34 AM by culzean »
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culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1058 on: October 26, 2018, 09:46:06 AM »
Some interesting comment in the financial world, but the no.5 selling car by volume and no.1 by revenue is not to be sniffed at.

https://electrek.co/2018/10/24/tesla-model-3-best-selling-revenue-gross-margin/?fbclid=IwAR2iWQzw59IJeECniM3IX9brpFCjqYHYf8FYGu-yz5mTyZKj-wIvk-5pCKI

Note the comment at the end, "Exciting times…unless you are a short."

In the years of its existence Tesla only made a profit last quarter ( that could either be a Musk trick or a blip from selling high end model 3's rather than lower spec cheaper models ).  If you look at the cash they have burnt to get there ( about a £billion a quarter ) then profit may be the wrong word to use over the longer term,  because all those losses have to be paid out before you are truly making a profit.   Anyone can make cars at a loss, the art is to produce cars as cheaply as possible and sell them for as much as the market will stand.  Tesla have had a honeymoon period where the cars had novelty value and they had little competition, now the competitors are many and offering better made products.   Model 3 was supposed to be their saviour as a cheaper model with larger sales potential,  but if they cost nearly as much as a model S to make and sell for $20k to $30K less ' whoops !!  :o  Tesla car sales in its only profitable quarter to date averaged $69,000 per vehicle,  a far cry from the $35,000 model 3 they promised,  looks to me like they are supplying the high end model 3 cars they have reservations and deposits for in preference to supplying any lower spec cars they have deposits for,  skewing their cash flow in the right direction while maybe letting down customers who ordered cheaper models.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-like-blackberry-iphone-came-analyst-201604393.html?guccounter=1

The company still has debts of nearly £10 Billion to pay off before they can truly declare a profit.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-tesla-may-post-profit-with-model-3-surge-but-is-it-repeatable-2018-10
« Last Edit: October 27, 2018, 09:36:20 AM by culzean »
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richardfrost

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1059 on: October 26, 2018, 09:51:03 AM »
Saw this the other day.
Intriguing. Some people in my industry (IT and business design) hail Musk as some sort of faultless design guru. Thing is, he is a great visionary, but he is not faultless. His cave rescue submarine was a barmy idea for example and a good pointer at his attention seeking personality.

There are a lot of groundbreaking ideas, design features and manufacturing innovations in the Teslas, particularly the Model 3. But I believe if he swallowed his pride and went to Toyota, partnered up and let them review his design for true mass production, they could build that thing for around half the price at twice the volume, which I think is th point of this video.

Musk and others made their fortune with great ideas, building billion pound businesses and selling them on. I think now they are on the cusp of profitability, it may be a good time for Tesla to sell to or partner with an established manufacturer.

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1060 on: October 26, 2018, 10:34:37 AM »
Saw this the other day.
Intriguing. Some people in my industry (IT and business design) hail Musk as some sort of faultless design guru. Thing is, he is a great visionary, but he is not faultless. His cave rescue submarine was a barmy idea for example and a good pointer at his attention seeking personality.

There are a lot of groundbreaking ideas, design features and manufacturing innovations in the Teslas, particularly the Model 3. But I believe if he swallowed his pride and went to Toyota, partnered up and let them review his design for true mass production, they could build that thing for around half the price at twice the volume, which I think is th point of this video.

Musk and others made their fortune with great ideas, building billion pound businesses and selling them on. I think now they are on the cusp of profitability, it may be a good time for Tesla to sell to or partner with an established manufacturer.

Problem is an idea like PayPal can be set up and scaled up to massive profits by small offices with very few staff, but to build cars you need lots of people, and a lot of production space - and factory space and staff salaries are the biggest cost to a business.  Of all the 'autonomous' car companies set up out of silicon valley that were going to 'kick Detroits a55' ( I think 11 to begin with ) there are just a few left - this is what happens when silicon valley meets the real world and things cannot be done by software alone.  Tesla has also managed so far to keep its second hand cars within its control and artificially kept prices up,  if second hand prices fall it starts to put pressure on new car prices, how long can they keep all the cars they have made within their control ?   https://evannex.com/blogs/news/tesla-s-used-car-business-is-growing

here is an interesting lesson from history for Musk  https://www.wired.co.uk/article/british-hyperloop-hovertrain-maglev-trains
« Last Edit: October 26, 2018, 12:55:13 PM by culzean »
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MartinJG

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1061 on: October 28, 2018, 11:23:31 AM »
I find it more than surprising that Teflon did not implement conventional assembly techniques where applicable. They must have employed experienced designers and engineers from the outset in order to combine the new with the old. That said, I suspect the battery and motor R&D and implementation are the areas which have created the greatest number of headaches in terms of weight, size and technical nouse.

« Last Edit: October 28, 2018, 12:23:30 PM by MartinJG »

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1062 on: October 28, 2018, 12:15:31 PM »

I find it more than surprising that Teflon did not implement conventional assembly techniques where applicable. They must have employed experienced designers and engineers from the outset in order to combine the new with the old. That said, I suspect the battery and motor R&D and implementation are the areas which have created the greatest number of headaches in terms of weight, size and technical nouse.

Elton Musk does not understand car making and has ( because of his massive ego ) overridden the engineers who do know how it should be done. Seems he has his own ideas about making cars and uses movement of molecules as his model.  https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-geekiest-explanation-2014-8?IR=T  also this https://www.inc.com/erik-sherman/elon-musk-is-killing-tesla-heres-why-he-should-be-fired.html

Toyota plant in San Antonio does it right https://seekingalpha.com/article/4002252-toyota-shows-tesla-run-car-factory-texas

They have JIT ( just in time ) deliveries of parts from satellite supplier factories around the main plant, this cuts transport time and costs and minimises inventory, also means if a problem with parts is found you do not have thousands of suspect parts sitting in a warehouse that need sorting / inspecting.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2018, 04:43:04 PM by culzean »
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MartinJG

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1063 on: October 28, 2018, 12:23:02 PM »
Something I find interesting is the fact that electric cars do not currently use a ratio gearbox. Direct drive only. I know the reasoning behind this but given the high torque characteristics of an electic motor from standstill which I believe reduces with increased revs (unlike a combustion engine for instance), it seems logical to use a CVT transmission. I know this would mean additional weight and potential friction, but given the performance nature of a motor, surely this would optimise performance and reduce the drain on the battery and therefore increase the range between charges which is currently a problem. Can't help feeling Elton Munch is missing a trick here.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2018, 05:04:36 PM by MartinJG »

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #1064 on: October 28, 2018, 12:44:00 PM »
Electric motors work on a magnetic rotor ( capable of rotating)  following a rotating magnetic field generated by a wound copper coils in a stator ( stationary ). Most electric  cars use the squirrel cage  motor used for so long as a power source in industry, it has a rotor that needs no electrical contacts as it is a laminated iron with a solid ' cage ' of aluminium conductors - it is an induction motor, so called because the rotating field from the stator ' induces ' currents in the 'cage) and magnetized the rotor without and electrical supply to the rotor.  This lack of moving electrical contacts ( sliprings or brushes ) means motors are very trouble free and reliable.  The problem with induction motors is they develop maximum torque when they are not rotating, as the rotor catches up with the rotating field the amount of 'slippage ' decreases and the torque drops, if the rotor speed ever caught up with the rotating field the torque would drop to zero.  With modern electronics the frequency of the rotating field can be changed to the optimum for every situation ( over a range of RPM depending on motor design limitations ), think of this as ' electrical / electronic CVT ' if you like - no need for a heavy gearbox that would absorb power in the drive train.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2018, 04:45:22 PM by culzean »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

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