Author Topic: Electric cars  (Read 7332 times)

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #105 on: August 12, 2017, 09:34:34 AM »
The ICE is dead and we will get used to it in time.

I bet the military will not be in a rush to 'go electric' for tactical vehicles,  sure they are buying them for their desk jockeys to run around in peacetime,  but that is only to meet government 'carbon and alternative fuel targets' - not because they want to.   Nothing up to now can meet the energy density of hydrocarbon fuel,  and it can easily be stockpiled in diverse locations - just what they want,  they do not want to be reliant on a centralised fuel supply, and they certainly won't be building wind turbine farms and solar arrays,  or maybe a temporary Hydro scheme on their front line bases.

Anyway we will still be refining crude to meet the demand for all the other stuff we get from it (paint, plastic, clothes, food, medicines etc. etc.  http://www.ranken-energy.com/Products%20from%20Petroleum.htm )  even the tarmac we drive our cars on obtained from oil, and crude contains an awful lot of petrol and other fuel oils,  so what are we going to do with these new 'byproducts' - dump them in landfills. 

Various studies have shown the large majority of people have no wish to have an electric vehicle, sure improved battery technology may make a dent in that figure,  but after 2040 PHEV and petrol-hybrids will still be built - I doubt we will see 'the disappearance of the ICE engine' in the lifetime of anyone who is alive today (even if they are only 1 year old).
« Last Edit: August 12, 2017, 10:45:43 AM by culzean »
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peteo48

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #106 on: August 12, 2017, 11:46:23 AM »
Are you sure that's right? I thought anything with an ICE would be banned from 2040 and that includes hybrids. Of course there will still be ICE vehicles around because the ban only applies to new sales.

I suspect most people, including the car manufacturers, will have woken up and smelled the coffee long before 2040. It's why it's actually quite uncontroversial - the change will happen organically and I am willing to bet few ICE cars will be bought from, say, 2030.

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #107 on: August 12, 2017, 12:03:20 PM »
Are you sure that's right? I thought anything with an ICE would be banned from 2040 and that includes hybrids. Of course there will still be ICE vehicles around because the ban only applies to new sales.

I suspect most people, including the car manufacturers, will have woken up and smelled the coffee long before 2040. It's why it's actually quite uncontroversial - the change will happen organically and I am willing to bet few ICE cars will be bought from, say, 2030.

Yes it is correct only vehicles whos only means of propulsion is petrol or diesel will be banned.  But the supply side for all that electricity has not been sorted yet.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/25/new-diesel-petrol-cars-banned-uk-roads-2040-government-unveils/
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peteo48

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #108 on: August 12, 2017, 02:11:06 PM »
Thanks for the link - I'd misunderstood the precise terms of the ban.

On a related topic just read an article in the finance pages of the Guardian where a reader wonders about scrapping his 12 year old diesel Mercedes Estate. A number of replies point out the inherent environmental issues in changing your car too often. I'm sometimes amused by electric car drivers who are on 2 year PCP deals and are already on their 3rd Nissan Leaf. I wonder if they have seen past the low emissions part of the equation and taken into account that buying a new car every 2 years is the exact opposite of being environmentally friendly.

Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #109 on: August 12, 2017, 02:16:03 PM »
From 2050 the UK government says that only full EV's can be sold. 2040 allows hybrids.

The military will NEVER use electric vehicles. A nuclear detonation (even tactical), causes a huge EMP which will fry all electrical systems bar for the very hardest (military spec radios etc). No way they will want any military vehicles other than diesel power, by my way of thinking.
As for the motorist in the street. I think his car, fried, will be the least of his worries!

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #110 on: August 12, 2017, 02:40:15 PM »
I'm sometimes amused by electric car drivers who are on 2 year PCP deals and are already on their 3rd Nissan Leaf. I wonder if they have seen past the low emissions part of the equation and taken into account that buying a new car every 2 years is the exact opposite of being environmentally friendly.

Well at the moment EV tech is changing so quickly that people are anxious to get the 'latest' (just like Apple bringing out a new i-Phone regularly,  the electric car has become the car equivalent of the i-phone LOL), also it makes some kind of sense to lease or PCP an EV because they depreciate faster than a snowball in the Sahara,  but that depreciation must be reflected in the residual value of the PCP or lease and many people find they have to roll over and get another one because the balloon payment is too large.   There is a big difference between being trendy and being 'green'.  As I have said before a lot of people probably get a Tesla because of its novelty value and badge appeal' rather than anything to do with wanting to save the planet (or they may have been hypnotised by Elon Musk).

« Last Edit: August 12, 2017, 02:54:18 PM by culzean »
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Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #111 on: August 12, 2017, 02:54:24 PM »
I fancy an electric car but green issues are not even in my mind. Hell, I don't even recycle.

TG

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #112 on: August 12, 2017, 03:21:08 PM »
Whilst stuck behind a 20 year old Land Rover belching fumes for over an hour, with the fan off, vents closed and the windows steaming up I was hoping for emissions controls to be rapidly tightened up, but when it forded the flood when we had to use the other side's pavement he was vindicated.  Not sure how happy I would have been to drive an EV into the floodwater....  refer to the handbook first I think.

Jocko hits the nail on the head - driverless EVs are ownerless cars.  Even today if Honda could provide me with a Jazz around the city, an Accord for the journey down the A1, and a CR-V for the camping trip I would be very happy (at the right price).  As it stands the Jazz is ideal around town, not comfortable enough on a 4 hour motorway, and wasting money going nowhere in a central London parking structure for half the month.

The shift in personal transportation from a capital outlay, to a brokered service is where the natural home of an EV lies.
- - -
In the ExxonMobil staff magazine earlier this year I was surprised to read that 90% of US oil consumption is on the roads; the other products either refined (butane, propane) or derived from the base elements are really ways of disposing of what might otherwise become a waste issue.  In what was a quite bullish article, the undertones were really quite grim reading for their long term future - they seem to be pinning their hopes on gas.
--
TG

Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #113 on: August 12, 2017, 04:16:10 PM »
going nowhere in a central London parking structure for half the month.
Seemingly the average private car is parked somewhere for 96% of its life. For something that is, for most people, their second biggest purchase, this is a terrible waste of capital.
I have a mate who doesn't own a car. If he needs one he hires one. He never has to worry about maintenance and repairs, MOT's or tax and insurance. He always has a new, clean car, no worries, and money in his pocket.

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #114 on: August 12, 2017, 05:02:30 PM »
Most people's washing machine is only used a few hours a week,  but they still buy one rather than going to a laundrette,  people spend 10grand on a pushbike that hardly gets used, despite the fact there are plenty of bike hire places around, likewise people spend up to 20 grand on a motorbike that only gets used occasionally in summer.  Ownership is hard wired into our psyche - we want possessions, we don't like sharing however much financial sense it makes.
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peteo48

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #115 on: August 12, 2017, 05:24:35 PM »
Most people's washing machine is only used a few hours a week,  but they still buy one rather than going to a laundrette,  people spend 10grand on a pushbike that hardly gets used, despite the fact there are plenty of bike hire places around, likewise people spend up to 20 grand on a motorbike that only gets used occasionally in summer.  Ownership is hard wired into our psyche - we want possessions, we don't like sharing however much financial sense it makes.

I think there's a lot in that. Even people, like my daughter, who has a car on a straight lease (not PCP) refers to it as "her" car - she even gets it washed! It will take quite a big psychological adjustment to move away from that mode of thought. I'm not saying it couldn't or wouldn't happen but we are a long way off.

Saying that TG makes some interesting points as well. I have a former colleague who lives in Fulham, terraced house, no drive or any other off road parking. He gave up his car some time ago using the tube and taxis for the most part and occasionally hiring a car for certain journeys but that's London with an overcrowded but generally fairly reliable public transport system. That model wouldn't work out in the sticks or even many small towns.

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #116 on: August 12, 2017, 07:30:47 PM »
MIT review of driverless cars,  not very encouraging..............
my favourite quote is 'the hype has got totally out of synch with the reality'

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602210/prepare-to-be-underwhelmed-by-2021s-autonomous-cars/
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Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #117 on: August 12, 2017, 08:01:23 PM »
The batteries won't last, the infrastructure won't cope, the technology isn't good enough, far too expensive, the people won't want them. These are all comments made about mobile phones.
That MIT review was written a year ago, and since then they have already come up with a solution for seeing in rain.
As for the Tesla that killed its driver by not seeing the truck. It did not have LIDAR. LIDAR would have seen the truck. Tesla still does not use LIDAR. It was expensive and spoils the look of the vehicle. However, LIDAR is now available in a small cheap form and people won't bother if their "taxi" has an ugly lump on the roof.
With regard to only working in a small area, the centre of most cities is a small area, and that is the stomping ground of Uber and Lyft at the moment.
Personally, I think that the technology will be engineered to fit the situation. It is the will of government that will be the stumbling block.

Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #118 on: August 12, 2017, 08:43:37 PM »
Found this fascinating video tonight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKaEhBjt1ls

peteo48

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #119 on: August 12, 2017, 10:05:02 PM »
The battery thing is interesting. There is a taxi firm in Cornwall that runs several Leafs. The oldest one was retired having lost 2 bars in 170,000 miles and 4 years so it had 80% left.

In the USA, however, especially in hot states, batteries have been losing capacity much quicker. They seem much more suited to temperate climates.

When I've looked at Nissan Leafs for sale in the UK it is rare to see any significant degradation even in the older cars.

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