Author Topic: Electric cars  (Read 693948 times)

Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #90 on: August 09, 2017, 04:21:14 PM »
The way that solar cell technology is improving exponentially, and the prices dropping, I can see a time, very soon, when almost every house will have their own solar array. At the moment it will cost about £6000 to install, a drop in the ocean compared to the price of a new house (it may even become a requirement of getting planning permission). At present that will give 3 kW. Not a great deal, but as energy output from the cells increases, and prices and physical area required continue to fall, it will not be long before we can get 10 kW for that price. Add to that a battery Powerwall (about another £8000) and you are talking about serious Green electricity.
Battery Powerwalls are a great use for traction batteries which are past their best. Companies will buy used traction batteries, rent them out for storage use, then as they deteriorate further, swap them out and recycle them.
(As a child we had no electricity, so my dad used to rent an "accumulator" to power the radio. When it went flat he would return it to the local electrician and bring home a fresh charged one.)
So I am very positive and optimistic about the future of Electric Vehicles.

peteo48

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #91 on: August 09, 2017, 05:05:21 PM »
Another development, and possibly why Toyota are late entrants to the pure EV scene having pioneered hybrids, is the solid state battery which, I gather, is a step change from the current crop of lithium ion batteries.

On a side issue I've been reading a bit about Dieter Helm, an economist who is to head up the Government's review into energy pricing. I'd read that some environmentalists were disturbed by his appointment. Turns out that he is a critic of the current crop of renewables and feels we need a bridge in the form of gas so that coal fired power stations can finally be scrapped. He is, however, convinced that fossil fuels are history and will be replaced by much more effective renewables and nuclear in the future. Some new developments in solar using graphene are showing promising results.

Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #92 on: August 11, 2017, 08:03:32 AM »
Norway has reached 42% of new car sales being electric, with 27% of new car sales being pure EV. Seemingly, with the Norwegian tax penalties against ICE vehicles, it is almost as cheap to buy a Tesla Model X as it is a Ford Focus!
It just shows what a committed government can achieve.

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #93 on: August 11, 2017, 09:34:25 AM »
Norway has reached 42% of new car sales being electric, with 27% of new car sales being pure EV. Seemingly, with the Norwegian tax penalties against ICE vehicles, it is almost as cheap to buy a Tesla Model X as it is a Ford Focus!
It just shows what a committed government can achieve.

Yeah,  like giving huge tax breaks to EV and skewing the market,  but whenever you give tax breaks to some you are subsidising them at the cost of your tax base,   good job Norway is a rich country that gets lots of money selling oil and gas to others and can afford this kind of stuff.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/07/12/norways-oil-consumption-rises-despite-42-electric-vehicle-share/#80512687152b

German car industry (which in Germany is more powerful than the government) is kicking back against targets for EV imposed from EU

https://global.handelsblatt.com/companies-markets/eu-gives-carmakers-electric-shock-808258?ref=NzgzMjI2&utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=contentmarketing&utm_campaign=outbrain-UK&utm_content=EU%20Gives%20Carmakers%20Electric%20Shock&utm_term=001ec45c75908e7daa98d89e242e05ac99
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 09:49:30 AM by culzean »
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Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #94 on: August 11, 2017, 09:51:26 AM »
Just as our government skewed the sales of diesel engined cars here, for a number of years, by reducing the cost of the  fuel. And now they are trying to go the other way with changed to VED.
It's what governments do.

guest1372

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #95 on: August 11, 2017, 11:57:17 AM »
Interesting article in this month's Economist* on EVs, the grid & the future of oil.   One aspect I'd overlooked is the probable continuing drop in the price of oil as untapped reserves will need to be pumped /refined / sold pretty rapidly leading to wholesale price falls.  Nobody wants to be left with unsold worthless reserves in the ground, but the flip side is that we may accelerate the rate at which it's burnt.
--
TG

* Open in a private tab if you reach your reading limit.
Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine. It had a good run. But the end is in sight for the machine that changed the world
Also: After electric cars, what more will it take for batteries to change the face of energy?

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #96 on: August 11, 2017, 02:30:14 PM »
Just as our government skewed the sales of diesel engined cars here, for a number of years, by reducing the cost of the  fuel. And now they are trying to go the other way with changed to VED.
It's what governments do.

If you start from the premise that governments have zero technical knowledge (after all they are mostly lawyers or accountants) but are advised by people with firmly vested interests all the stupidity (diesel cars,  wind turbines, HS2 etc.) begins to make sense.

As for the limelight seeking self-promoting Elon Musk ................https://www.forbes.com/sites/rodadams/2017/07/07/megahype-over-tesla-battery-capable-of-providing-nameplate-power-for-less-than-80-minutes/#4aed6edf4919
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 02:39:31 PM by culzean »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #97 on: August 11, 2017, 02:54:19 PM »
Interesting article in this month's Economist* on EVs, the grid & the future of oil.   One aspect I'd overlooked is the probable continuing drop in the price of oil as untapped reserves will need to be pumped /refined / sold pretty rapidly leading to wholesale price falls.  Nobody wants to be left with unsold worthless reserves in the ground, but the flip side is that we may accelerate the rate at which it's burnt.
--
TG

* Open in a private tab if you reach your reading limit.
Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine. It had a good run. But the end is in sight for the machine that changed the world
Also: After electric cars, what more will it take for batteries to change the face of energy?


Oil is going nowhere anytime soon, as Mark Twain said in London after newspapers in USA printed stories that he had died,  "reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated".

The 2040 deadline on Diesel and petrol cars does not include hybrid and PHEV vehicles,  so many people will be buying a hybrid to cash in on the low cost of hydrocarbon fuel,  and wave to the people queuing  at recharging stations as they sail past,  No-one has decided who is going to pay for and install EV charging points,  but whoever it is they will not be doing it for nothing and will want to make a profit.

Many new housing estates are being built without car parking attached to the houses, so people park in the street,  so where are they going to charge their cars,  the problems are worst in city or suburban areas,  which logically should be the home of the EV.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2017/05/19/long-distance-electric-car-charging-problems-will-boost-plug-in-hybrids/#32fe90315f39
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 03:36:16 PM by culzean »
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peteo48

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #98 on: August 11, 2017, 03:01:04 PM »
I agree we will continue to need an oil industry for some time into the future - aviation fuel and heavy oil for shipping are just two areas where a non oil substitute isn't readily to hand. It is also used to manufacture plastics etc etc.

But one day it will run out and we are already now in the business of using reserves that are harder to recover. It makes sense, to me anyway, to start replacing it where we can and EVs are one way of doing that.

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #99 on: August 11, 2017, 03:56:57 PM »
I agree we will continue to need an oil industry for some time into the future - aviation fuel and heavy oil for shipping are just two areas where a non oil substitute isn't readily to hand. It is also used to manufacture plastics etc etc.

But one day it will run out and we are already now in the business of using reserves that are harder to recover. It makes sense, to me anyway, to start replacing it where we can and EVs are one way of doing that.

Fuel for vehicles is only the tip of the iceberg of what we get from oil, it touches every part of our lives with plastics and other derivatives and basically a lot of things that cannot be replaced by other resources.  There is plenty of oil left, so we will continue to extract oil and the price of fuel will drop which (unless governments poke their noses in with massive subsidies) will mean that other fuels will be costly by comparison,  renewables have been responsible for a lot of the increase we have seen in industrial and domestic power over the past few decades, because governments subsidised them to make them competitive - and when a government subsidises things it costs taxpayers and consumers money (the sad fact is that governments don't have any money,  but they have the law on their side so taking it from those who do have money that they work hard for is easy for them).

and here is a shock for people who think it is only older people who may not want an  EV

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2017/04/17/surprise-70-of-millenials-do-not-want-electric-vehicles/#95483f03f66b
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 04:32:10 PM by culzean »
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Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #100 on: August 11, 2017, 04:11:16 PM »
According to Justin Laney, the Commercial Vehicle Fleet Manager for John Lewis Partnership, talking at this year's nationalgrid Future Energy Scenarios, Bio-methane is the way that haulage fleets are looking to go, in the near future.
Off street parking is definitely an issue, regarding the charging of electric vehicles. I can see a time, fairly soon, where people do not own there own car. They just call up one as they need it. Driverless cars will go out of town to a charging station and charge up as required. Those people who do want/need to own their own car will charge them at rapid charging stations, possibly using inductive charging, as the prototype Rolls Royce electric car currently uses. With large capacity storage, and rapid charging, a car would be charged to 80% in little more time than it takes to fill up with petrol. Supermarkets would offer cheap charging, in their car parks, to customers. At present, petrol stations are a draw to get people to shop at a store. Charging points will be the new petrol station.
Norway has huge areas for parking and charging EV's, with free public parking for EV's, and car parks, in the likes of Oslo, that provide FREE charging.

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #101 on: August 11, 2017, 04:47:03 PM »
Norway has huge areas for parking and charging EV's, with free public parking for EV's, and car parks, in the likes of Oslo, that provide FREE charging.

You really cannot extrapolate anything from what mega rich social democrat Norway is doing,  most of its electricity comes from Hydro and most of its money comes from oil and gas.  The true test will be when EV users have to queue at charging stations to pay market rates for their 'fuel' - not when the government gives the infrastructure and fuel to them free to prove some kind of political points. And apart from Teslas (which is a status thing really lets face it) other EV are not selling well.

As the link in my last post shows, 70% of all age groups from millennials through to 80 year olds have no interest in EV (except some younger ones would want a Tesla for its street-cred value).
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 07:35:12 PM by culzean »
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olduser1

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #102 on: August 11, 2017, 08:04:09 PM »
I dont get all the fuss inside the earth there is no way enough cobalt for the UK let alone the continent for future EV batteries. The future is bright around here e vehicvles travel on rails & have done since 1860, self drive vehicles are buses. On the UK road small  turbo charged petrol engines can deliver some enjoyment, as for myself  my Subaru Turbo takes some beating

Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #103 on: August 11, 2017, 08:38:31 PM »
As an ex bus driver, and a bus pass holder, I am a great fan of buses. The only problem is they never pick you up where you are and never get exactly where you want to go! That's why, if we can afford it, we drive cars. One of the scenarios I read, regarding driverless cars, suggested that free driverless transport could be laid on, for the money the government/councils currently pay in subsidies to the likes of Stagecoach and First Bus!
Cobalt currently comes as a byproduct of copper and nickel mining, and as the price of these metals is dropping so too is the mining. However, as the value of cobalt goes through the roof then mining for cobalt as a principal metal will become viable and they will mine it whether other metals are there or not. And who's to say that technology may be about to come up with cobalt free batteries.
I may be an old fart but I have boundless optimism regarding technology. I remember when CD's were the future! 

peteo48

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #104 on: August 11, 2017, 10:49:56 PM »
The reality is that nobody can predict the future with any accuracy and certainly not the pace of technological change and innovation. The idea, though, that we continue to use a 19th century technology like the ICE for the rest of time is for the birds.

The ICE is dead and we will get used to it in time.

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