Author Topic: Brexit and the scare mongers  (Read 24874 times)

sparky Paul

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #120 on: March 10, 2018, 04:02:23 PM »
We have had seasonal farm workers from abroad in UK for centuries,  it is not something that started with EEC / EC / EU membership.  It worked on a flexible visa system and it worked very well.   Absolutely no reason post-Brexit that we could not still do it 'the old way'

That's true, but there is anecdotal evidence that farmers are beginning to find it increasingly difficult to attract seasonal workers from abroad. Whether that's because of the value of the pound, better situations back home, or current attitudes towards foreigners in the UK, I'm not sure. Probably all of them.

Where there will be a problem is in the non-seasonal work centred around agricultural areas, there are large numbers of immigrants in permanent jobs in food processing factories and warehouses. Food processers are often reluctant to employ native workers because they know it will cause them continuous difficulties with staff turnover, due to the low pay and often hard work involved. There are also methods they can use to pay wages via agents overseas which are below the legal minimum permissible in the UK.

Although many like to think that the British worker is bone idle, the truth is that in this fluid labour market, people are always on the lookout for a job with better pay, better prospects and yes, as is perfectly natural, physically easier work. Whilst a British worker may stick it for a while before finding a better job, immigrants are often content to continue working hard for pay which, whilst poor to us, is better than they can earn at home.

JimSh

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #121 on: March 10, 2018, 04:54:26 PM »
We have had seasonal farm workers from abroad in UK for centuries,  it is not something that started with EEC / EC / EU membership.  It worked on a flexible visa system and it worked very well.   Absolutely no reason post-Brexit that we could not still do it 'the old way'

That's true, but there is anecdotal evidence that farmers are beginning to find it increasingly difficult to attract seasonal workers from abroad. Whether that's because of the value of the pound, better situations back home, or current attitudes towards foreigners in the UK, I'm not sure. Probably all of them.

Where there will be a problem is in the non-seasonal work centred around agricultural areas, there are large numbers of immigrants in permanent jobs in food processing factories and warehouses. Food processers are often reluctant to employ native workers because they know it will cause them continuous difficulties with staff turnover, due to the low pay and often hard work involved. There are also methods they can use to pay wages via agents overseas which are below the legal minimum permissible in the UK.

Although many like to think that the British worker is bone idle, the truth is that in this fluid labour market, people are always on the lookout for a job with better pay, better prospects and yes, as is perfectly natural, physically easier work. Whilst a British worker may stick it for a while before finding a better job, immigrants are often content to continue working hard for pay which, whilst poor to us, is better than they can earn at home.

There was a great programme on the TV last year about the migrant berry pickers in the east of Scotland. It's too late to catch up on it now and I couldn't find a link to any videos but the comments on this site relating to the programme are worth a read. I don't know how much was staged for the programme but there seemed to be a great community spirit and an integration with the local communities. Many of the migrants had taken on responsible roles and many had settled in the NE of Scotland and family members came over year after year.
As Paul says many of the jobs are no longer short term. Whereas the berry picking used to be a short term summer job with the advent of poly tunnels there was work for nine months in the year.

https://www.gransnet.com/forums/tv_radio_film_arts/a1241510-Who-will-pick-the-berries

Think I've got the hang of the quote thing now.

guest4871

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #122 on: March 10, 2018, 05:13:27 PM »
Copied from another site:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/14/honda-uk-warns-mps-of-consequences-of-leaving-eu-customs-union
The devastating impact of a hard Brexit on the UK car industry was laid bare on Tuesday to MPs, who were told every 15 minutes of customs delays would cost some manufacturers up to £850,000 a year.

Presenting the industry’s most detailed evidence yet to the business select committee, Honda UK said it relied on 350 trucks a day arriving from Europe to keep its giant Swindon factory operating, with just an hour’s worth of parts being held on the production line.

The Japanese-owned company said it would take 18 months to set up new procedures and warehouses if Britain left the customs union but that, with 2m daily component movements, even minor delays at Dover and the Channel tunnel would force hundreds of its trucks to wait for the equivalent of 90 hours a day.

“Outside of the customs union, there is no such thing as a frictionless border,” said Honda’s government affairs manager, Patrick Keating.

“I wouldn’t say that the just-in-time manufacturing model wouldn’t work, but it would certainly be very challenging.”

Until now, many large multinationals have chosen to present such commercially-sensitive data to the government in private, but with MPs still struggling to force disclosure of 58 sectoral analysis reports produced by Whitehall officials, there is growing demand for the impact of leaving without a deal to be spelled out.

Witnesses said new tariffs would add an estimated £1,500 to the price of an imported car, and Rachel Reeves, the Labour MP and former Bank of England economist who led Tuesday’s hearing, encouraged the executives to outline how exporters might also face a possible £300 cost due to tariffs on their imported components.

A hard Brexit deal or no deal will see our car industry collapse. Do the headbangers care however? Probably not.

Cobblers

Before we all get carried away with ourselves, let me suggest that the UK car manufacturers perhaps protest too hard and perhaps for political reasons. Nissan, particularly, is 40% owned by Renault which is 20% owned by the French Government and incidentally 3% by Daimler AG.

In the new world order, it will be very simple for the UK government to do one of two things or both for all car manufacturers.

Most simple would be to make the existing operations Customs Bonded Factories (as e.g. tobacco factories). Imported components would be imported under Customs Bond.They do not pay any tax or duty on import into UK until they leave the Bonded Factory. Exported completed cars or components would bear no UK duty or tax (but will pay local import taxes into the EU and existing other non EU countries just as now). Cars sold into the UK market will bear UK local tax.

Also let us not forget the £ is weaker now and that has all but eliminated any potential tariff differences with EU anyway.

All in all it may actually be better in the future to manufacture in UK for EU markets.

Alternatively but similar, to make them tax free Economic Development Zones which what I believe Sunderland originally was. Canary Wharf certainly was - with the intention of establishing manufacturing on the Isle of Dogs but property developers spotted the opportunity and we now have what we now have.

The car manufactures will already be aware of these options and use them around the world.

I do suspect they protest too much.

I was astounded to come across:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

It is an extremely well formulated European Parliament study, dated November 2017, on what they call Smart Border 2 (a frictionless Irish border) which is well worth a scan.

It sets out very clearly and maturely how the border might operate. It is very well thought through.

If you listen to the politicians and the media there seems no solution. But the study seems to be saying something very sensible and practical here.

European Parliament's Brexit chief Guy Verhofstadt laughed the idea of a technical solution out of court. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar poured cold water on a suggestion by Theresa May that the customs arrangements on the US-Canada border could provide a model for the Irish border after Brexit. "I visited it back in August, and I saw a hard border with physical infrastructure with customs posts, people in uniforms with arms and dogs and that is definitely not a solution that is one that we can possibly entertain".

"This study, commissioned by the European Parliament's Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs at the request of the AFCO Committee, provides background on cross border movement and trade between Northern Ireland and Ireland and identifies international standards and best practices and technologies that can be used to avoid a ‘hard’ border as well as case studies that provide insights into creating a smooth border experience. The technical solution provided is based on innovative approaches with a focus on cooperation, best practices and technology that is independent of any political agreements on the UK’s exit from the EU and offers a template for future UK-EU border relationships."


When I was with TNT (before the Single Market) we operated an overnight network service hubbing out of Cologne collecting components across Europe for the car manufacturers - mostly GM and Ford - with pick up as late as 8.00pm for delivery for  their 6.00am  production runs across Europe. 

With the Single Market we lost our USP in Customs pre clearance.

Transporting exhaust pipes on an aircraft are a curse as they are very volumetric! The JIT deliveries went on our road network.

Sometimes if a production line had a problem we would put on a point to point delivery the same day, usually in 4 hours. Occasionally we would use a helicopter for small critical time sensitive  parts eg wiper blades, odd bolts etc. where a line ran short.

All before the Single Market.

It was because of our pre clearance expertise that Honda decided to hold their European parts in only one location as we could deliver their parts across Europe to their dealers by 6.00am all Customs cleared.

Perhaps Patrick Keating should do some homework!

Don't believe everything in the press!

culzean

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #123 on: March 10, 2018, 05:19:38 PM »
Copied from another site:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/14/honda-uk-warns-mps-of-consequences-of-leaving-eu-customs-union
The devastating impact of a hard Brexit on the UK car industry was laid bare on Tuesday to MPs, who were told every 15 minutes of customs delays would cost some manufacturers up to £850,000 a year.

Presenting the industry’s most detailed evidence yet to the business select committee, Honda UK said it relied on 350 trucks a day arriving from Europe to keep its giant Swindon factory operating, with just an hour’s worth of parts being held on the production line.

The Japanese-owned company said it would take 18 months to set up new procedures and warehouses if Britain left the customs union but that, with 2m daily component movements, even minor delays at Dover and the Channel tunnel would force hundreds of its trucks to wait for the equivalent of 90 hours a day.

“Outside of the customs union, there is no such thing as a frictionless border,” said Honda’s government affairs manager, Patrick Keating.

“I wouldn’t say that the just-in-time manufacturing model wouldn’t work, but it would certainly be very challenging.”

Until now, many large multinationals have chosen to present such commercially-sensitive data to the government in private, but with MPs still struggling to force disclosure of 58 sectoral analysis reports produced by Whitehall officials, there is growing demand for the impact of leaving without a deal to be spelled out.

Witnesses said new tariffs would add an estimated £1,500 to the price of an imported car, and Rachel Reeves, the Labour MP and former Bank of England economist who led Tuesday’s hearing, encouraged the executives to outline how exporters might also face a possible £300 cost due to tariffs on their imported components.

A hard Brexit deal or no deal will see our car industry collapse. Do the headbangers care however? Probably not.

We import almost 1 million cars per year from Germany alone, worth almost  30 Billion Euro (Germany imports about 4 Billion Euro of cars from UK) after Brexit our cars could become expensive in Germany, but German cars could also become very expensive in UK,  about 40% of UK car exports go to EU countries,  out of the 80% we export in total, so 40% of our cars are sold outside EU and 20% in UK.  UK imports 20% of German car production.

http://www.acea.be/statistics/article/motor-vehicle-trade-between-the-uk-and-main-eu-partners

The business leader in EU countries have already expressed their dissatisfaction about the way Barnier is handling talks,  business leaders and heads of different EU countries will soon get Barnier and Vorhofstadt and bang their heads together and tell to stop playing politics - businessmen are pragmatists not political ideologists.
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

JimSh

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #124 on: March 10, 2018, 05:34:49 PM »
Copied from another site:







Cobblers

Before we all get carried away with ourselves, let me suggest that the UK car manufacturers perhaps protest too hard and perhaps for political reasons. Nissan, particularly, is 40% owned by Renault which is 20% owned by the French Government and incidentally 3% by Daimler AG.

In the new world order, it will be very simple for the UK government to do one of two things or both for all car manufacturers.

Most simple would be to make the existing operations Customs Bonded Factories (as e.g. tobacco factories). Imported components would be imported under Customs Bond.They do not pay any tax or duty on import into UK until they leave the Bonded Factory. Exported completed cars or components would bear no UK duty or tax (but will pay local import taxes into the EU and existing other non EU countries just as now). Cars sold into the UK market will bear UK local tax.

Also let us not forget the £ is weaker now and that has all but eliminated any potential tariff differences with EU anyway.

All in all it may actually be better in the future to manufacture in UK for EU markets.

Alternatively but similar, to make them tax free Economic Development Zones which what I believe Sunderland originally was. Canary Wharf certainly was - with the intention of establishing manufacturing on the Isle of Dogs but property developers spotted the opportunity and we now have what we now have.

The car manufactures will already be aware of these options and use them around the world.

I do suspect they protest too much.

I was astounded to come across:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

It is an extremely well formulated European Parliament study, dated November 2017, on what they call Smart Border 2 (a frictionless Irish border) which is well worth a scan.

It sets out very clearly and maturely how the border might operate. It is very well thought through.

If you listen to the politicians and the media there seems no solution. But the study seems to be saying something very sensible and practical here.

European Parliament's Brexit chief Guy Verhofstadt laughed the idea of a technical solution out of court. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar poured cold water on a suggestion by Theresa May that the customs arrangements on the US-Canada border could provide a model for the Irish border after Brexit. "I visited it back in August, and I saw a hard border with physical infrastructure with customs posts, people in uniforms with arms and dogs and that is definitely not a solution that is one that we can possibly entertain".

"This study, commissioned by the European Parliament's Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs at the request of the AFCO Committee, provides background on cross border movement and trade between Northern Ireland and Ireland and identifies international standards and best practices and technologies that can be used to avoid a ‘hard’ border as well as case studies that provide insights into creating a smooth border experience. The technical solution provided is based on innovative approaches with a focus on cooperation, best practices and technology that is independent of any political agreements on the UK’s exit from the EU and offers a template for future UK-EU border relationships."


When I was with TNT (before the Single Market) we operated an overnight network service hubbing out of Cologne collecting components across Europe for the car manufacturers - mostly GM and Ford - with pick up as late as 8.00pm for delivery for  their 6.00am  production runs across Europe. 

With the Single Market we lost our USP in Customs pre clearance.

Transporting exhaust pipes on an aircraft are a curse as they are very volumetric! The JIT deliveries went on our road network.

Sometimes if a production line had a problem we would put on a point to point delivery the same day, usually in 4 hours. Occasionally we would use a helicopter for small critical time sensitive  parts eg wiper blades, odd bolts etc. where a line ran short.

All before the Single Market.

It was because of our pre clearance expertise that Honda decided to hold their European parts in only one location as we could deliver their parts across Europe to their dealers by 6.00am all Customs cleared.

Perhaps Patrick Keating should do some homework!

Don't believe everything in the press!



Surely it would be cheaper for the car makers to manufacture in Europe and cut out all the hassle

Basil

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #125 on: March 10, 2018, 05:43:59 PM »
Believe what you want, the Japanese companies are based in the UK for easy access to the European market, a hard Brexit would force them to move their factories to mainland Europe.

JimSh

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #126 on: March 10, 2018, 05:54:30 PM »
To Basil,
Snap.
Just beat you to it but your explanation was better than mine

culzean

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #127 on: March 10, 2018, 06:10:47 PM »
Believe what you want, the Japanese companies are based in the UK for easy access to the European market, a hard Brexit would force them to move their factories to mainland Europe.

We are Germanies single largest export car market, next biggest is USA,  Trump is already putting tariffs on EU steel and aluminium (by the way EU has tariff of 75% on some Chinese steel, so can hardly cry foul).  Next will be EU cars and loads of other stuff getting tariffs so if car makers move to EU they will get hit as well.  USA has promised zero or very low tariffs for UK, and apparently EU are going to take UK and USA to court,  well good luck with that one.
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

sparky Paul

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #128 on: March 10, 2018, 06:46:13 PM »
the Japanese companies are based in the UK for easy access to the European market, a hard Brexit would force them to move their factories to mainland Europe.

In the medium to long term, when major investment decisions are considered, I believe this is inevitable.

Realistically though, mechanisms will be found to allow companies to continue to operate in the short term, but it will be far from an ideal situation for the manufacturers, as Honda UK indicated. It may also cost the UK Government a great deal of money to facilitate this. I would pose the same question as I did earlier - Does anyone think the Burnaston, Sunderland or Swindon plants would have ever been built, had the UK never joined the EU/EEC?


We import almost 1 million cars per year from Germany alone, worth almost  30 Billion Euro (Germany imports about 4 Billion Euro of cars from UK) after Brexit our cars could become expensive in Germany, but German cars could also become very expensive in UK

...and we will continue to do so. Why should the EU care that we apply tariffs to their cars? If we did carry out the threat to walk away and assume WTO tariff rules, it will only hurt the British consumer. Prices of UK built cars will also be affected by tariffs on imported parts.

We could say stuff your cars and vans, but where else will we buy our BMWs, Mercs and Audis? Cars are not really a fungible good to many buyers, I doubt tariffs will significantly affect the habits of BMW buyers, only the prices they end up paying.

UK manufacturers have far more to lose from tariffs. Loss of sales of UK built cars will only increase sales of EU built cars, and incentivise manufacturers to make future investment decisions in favour of the trading areas where their biggest markets are. As I said earlier, companies like Peugeot already have spare EU capacity they could use for cars and vans they build here in the UK.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2018, 07:29:36 PM by sparky Paul »

Jocko

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #129 on: March 11, 2018, 09:34:37 AM »
If we did carry out the threat to walk away and assume WTO tariff rules, it will only hurt the British consumer. Prices of UK built cars will also be affected by tariffs on imported parts.r, companies like Peugeot already have spare EU capacity they could use for cars and vans they build here in the UK.
Strictly speaking, it doesn't need to. The UK government could offset the import tariffs by reducing the tax on new cars. They would still get the same money and the customer would still pay the same for a new car.

sparky Paul

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #130 on: March 11, 2018, 09:58:09 AM »
If we did carry out the threat to walk away and assume WTO tariff rules, it will only hurt the British consumer. Prices of UK built cars will also be affected by tariffs on imported parts, companies like Peugeot already have spare EU capacity they could use for cars and vans they build here in the UK.
Strictly speaking, it doesn't need to. The UK government could offset the import tariffs by reducing the tax on new cars. They would still get the same money and the customer would still pay the same for a new car.

They reckon that tariffs could add an average of £1500 to an imported car, and £300 to a UK built car.

 I would guess that the only new vehicle tax that could reasonably be adjusted to accommodate that is VAT, by introducing different VAT rates for cars. How would that work for disabled car buyers, or buyers of cars and vans for business use, neither of which pay the VAT?

guest5079

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #131 on: March 11, 2018, 03:12:05 PM »
The truth of the matter is that NOBODY, except a chosen few, know what is going to happen. We can all speculate but until the so called experts stop pphaffing about and tell the truth, we the general public are in the dark' This am the Chancellor stated that the economy is marginally improving with our deficit getting ever so slowly better. Only to have that nice man who I believe is shadow chancellor telling us this is nonsense. Who was it that decided the way forward was to spend our way out of trouble? The Labour bloke, obviously has a selective memory as it was his lot that was spend spend spend. Education has had money thrown at it and what to do we have? Certainly not a return on the money Labour threw at education.
Why did Peugeot /Citroen buy Vauxhall? I suspect it is to ensure a facility in the UK to protect their interests after Brexit.  I also suspect Vauxhall will quietly disappear.
I also understand the reason that some Eastern Block people as well as the Poles are not coming to the UK because their economies are improving. Lastly there was comment about Hilary Benn. When it was muted about the  coastal path for the public to enjoy in his area, when asked he refused on the grounds that he was NOT having the great unwashed tramping along the sea wall interfering with his enjoyment. He is 'B' lucky to have a property with a beach at the bottom of his garden. Just the sort that will scream bloody murder when the sea starts encroaching on his garden, expecting the great unwashed to stump up to protect HIS property.   A socialist, I thought they were for the people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!No doubt there is enough here to cause a few comments.

sparky Paul

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #132 on: March 11, 2018, 08:10:14 PM »
This am the Chancellor stated that the economy is marginally improving with our deficit getting ever so slowly better. Only to have that nice man who I believe is shadow chancellor telling us this is nonsense.

What the Chancellor actually said was that "we are paying down the debt" several times, and that "the debt was now falling"

It is utter nonsense. Even Marr was forced to point out that the national debt is still increasing.

Why did Peugeot /Citroen buy Vauxhall? I suspect it is to ensure a facility in the UK to protect their interests after Brexit.

They are already building Vauxhall (and Opel) branded vehicles in Peugeot factories in France.

JimSh

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #133 on: March 11, 2018, 10:23:30 PM »
He was quite hesitant when asked direct questions

"AM: Simple question: is austerity over?
PH: Well, we’ve – most people take that to be a reference to the
public sector pay
cap, and we’ve removed the one per cent pay
cap on public sector pay. As you know, unions and management
right now are in discussions on a settlement for nurses and other
agenda for change staff in the NHS, which I hope will lead to a
pay settlement which
satisfies workers in the NHS but is also fair
to taxpayers, because it tackles some of the challenge that we
have in the NHS workforce and makes it more effective and
efficient.
AM: For the working families affected by these welfare changes,
for instance, £200 a year worse off on average, that feels like no
light at all at the end of the tunnel for them. Can I ask you also
about local authorities, because all across the country you know
Tory local authorities as well as Labour ones are screaming with
pain "
 
« Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 06:40:54 AM by JimSh »

JimSh

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Re: Brexit and the scare mongers
« Reply #134 on: March 11, 2018, 10:38:41 PM »
And when asked if Brexit would be worth it, he hummed and hawed before saying that the British people had decided.

 AM:Is it worth it?
PH: Yes. Financial services is a very important part of our
economy, but it’s also –
AM: Not the financial services negotiation. Is Brexit worth it?
PH: Oh the whole thing?
AM: Yes, the whole thing?
PH: Well, yes -the British people have decided. The British people
decided that we are leaving the European Union and that’s what
we’re doing.   




Does Mr Hammond sometimes betray a vestige of conscience?

Full transcript here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/11031801.pdf


« Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 06:55:29 AM by JimSh »

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