2030 sale of petrol cars

[peteo48]

I have been looking at cheap (!) used Leafs (or should that be Leaves?). You are talking about £5K. Saw one for £4K but it was an import.

And then you have the issue of whether the battery is  owned or leased..

I think this is rarely an issue with the Nissan Leaf and most dealers are upfront about it (I know this because I did a lot of research about a year ago). It is an issue with the Renault Zoe.

The range thing is interesting. I've seen a number of reviews of the Honda E. The 135 range quoted by Honda is absolutely for the birds. It's an 80 mile EV if you want to drive normally and with the usual creature comforts. It's actually not that much better than an old 24 kwh Leaf.

This brings me to a conundrum. Increase the range of EVs and the need for a comprehensive public charging infrastructure reduces (we are not even close to such an infrastructure btw).

But I think we may be moving to a different pattern of car ownership and usage. Big batteries are expensive and heavy - Honda have been quite honest in saying that the "E" is a City car. If you do frequent long trips it is absolutely not the car for you. Long Range EVs remain expensive.

Things will look very different in 5 years though. Gridserve have plans for over 100 EV only filling stations. The one near Braintree in Essex can have 36 cars charging at any one time.

[Westy36]

I wonder how long it will be before the criminal fraternity start stealing older EV's for the metals/batteries? The Jazz and similar cats are an easy steal, and presumably easy to sell. I'm sure criminal gangs will get involved in EV's when there are a lot more of them about and they have developed an infastructure.

[peteo48]

Think it's only a matter of time unfortunately.

[Westy36]

Think it's only a matter of time unfortunately.

Frankly I'm amazed it's not a big problem already. You just have to look at how quickly keyless entry systems were dealt with to see how clever they can be. Where there is £££££ to be made.....

[Jocko]

The MG5 forum I have joined gives me a great insight into EVs. One new EV convert say's forget miles, read range as kilometres.

[fatal]

I'd like to know how sufficient electrical energy will be produced to charge upwards of 30 million vehicles, especially given the current (pun intended) leaning to solar and wind energy which cannot operate 24/7 due to weather and darkness. Has anyone actually looked at the pollution caused by the mining of minerals used to produce the batteries for these vehicles?
I think electric vehicles have their place for use around towns and cities, especially for local delivery vehicles as they would be able to charge overnight and range anxiety would not be a problem. For long distance and rural users I think there will be issues, plus where will the people who live in flats, and the terraced streets charge their cars, not everyone lives in a home with a driveway or even can park on the road outside their home. I cannot understand why the government doesn't promote hybrid vehicles.
It has been mentioned that in years to come no one will own a car, that it's likely we will have access to hire vehicles collecting and dropping them off at various points. I wonder what state they will be in?
I've a feeling this Jazz will be the last car I own.

[Downsizer]

Part of the solution will lie in smart metering, enabling cars that can be plugged in at home to be charged off-peak overnight. This does nothing for flat dwellers like me though, as you say.  No doubt battery technology will improve as well, but that still leaves many unanswered questions.  By 2030 I shall be aged 88, so I don’t think I will ever buy an all-electric car!

[Kremmen]

That's the critical thing.

Currently we pop over to the petrol station and 5 minutes later we have another 400 or so miles in stock. If they can't emulate that for those without off road parking then there's going to be an almighty civil unrest.

[sparky Paul]

I cannot understand why the government doesn't promote hybrid vehicles.

The problems with hybrid are that they produce very nearly as much pollution as an equivalent modern petrol car, they are more expensive to buy than the petrol equivalent, and they as more complex than a petrol or an EV. Pollution is a real problem, it is causing the deaths of people before their time, making others too ill to work, burdening health services and reducing productivity. While there are many varying estimates of the cost of all this, they are all very substantial. We need to take pollution out of the air we breathe.

The problem of producing enough electricity energy is real, but look at it like this - it's not that we don't already produce this energy, it's just that we currently produce it in small mobile power stations of our own. The adoption of EVs will allow us to remove these sources of pollution - even if we continued to burn fossil fuels to produce the electricity, it will be much easier to arrest pollutants from a large centralised generator.

As I've said before, EVs are more about pollution than global warming... but the substitution of EVs does at least give us the option to reduce both pollution and carbon emissions, if we choose to produce this electricity by low carbon means - and we cannot know what future developments will hold for low carbon generation.

We already have nuclear, but two sites local to me are being considered for the Government's STEP project - the Tokamak nuclear fusion reactor.

https://www.business-live.co.uk/technology/two-nottinghamshire-sites-now-being-20083270

Currently we pop over to the petrol station and 5 minutes later we have another 400 or so miles in stock. If they can't emulate that for those without off road parking then there's going to be an almighty civil unrest.

It's fair criticism as things stand now, but I think the problems of range and charging facilities will also be solved.

The technology is already here with 350kW charging and vehicles with 400+ mile range, but the technology is only currently available in a very small number of cars, and the charging stations are only just starting to be built. We are not there yet.

[Downsizer]

“We already have nuclear, but two sites local to me are being considered for the Government's STEP project - the Tokamak nuclear fusion reactor.”

I remember getting excited about the possibilities of nuclear fusion when I was studying A level physics in the 1950’s - unlimited power from seawater was the headline story.  I have visited the UKAEA research site at Culham, and its successor in France (ITER) is well advanced, but sadly commercial fusion power always seems to be 20 years away.

[sparky Paul]

I have visited the UKAEA research site at Culham, and its successor in France is well advanced, but sadly commercial fusion power always seems to be 20 years away.

I think I would tend to disagree. Whilst there have been slips and delays in the timelines of individual projects, the estimated date for the goal of commercial operation has been remarkably constant - as richardfrost pointed out over in the 'Electricity generation' thread

I shall be 60 this Summer and I have been following and reading about the potential for fusion power stations since I was a lad. What is interesting is that the proposed date for such has never really moved. Even in 1970 I think they were saying it was 60-80 years away. Now it seems so close.

[culzean]

I have visited the UKAEA research site at Culham, and its successor in France (ITER) is well advanced, but sadly commercial fusion power always seems to be 20 years away.

All major advances in most things are always 10 to 20 years away 

[culzean]

The technology is already here with 350kW charging and vehicles with 400+ mile range, but the technology is only currently available in a very small number of cars, and the charging stations are only just starting to be built. We are not there yet.

Every article I have read says fast charging kills Li-Ion batteries... it is the #1 enemy,  and it is not just the heat.

[Jocko]

Every article I have read says fast charging kills Li-Ion batteries... it is the #1 enemy,  and it is not just the heat.

That is why the push is on for batteries that are not the current Li-ion.  Some of the brightest minds on the planet, with some of the biggest budgets, are working on battery storage right now. The future appears to be solid state batteries. Still Li-ion but with a solid electrolyte.

Next-generation lithium-ion
Solid-state lithium batteries (a form of lithium-ion
battery) are often considered to represent the next
big leap in battery technologies, and are likely to be
in use in the foreseeable future. They are potentially
suited for a large variety of applications: energy
storage, electric vehicles and portable electronics.
They could be the first battery technology which
ensures the needed leap in energy and power
density increase, as well as safety.
Like other members of the lithium-ion family,
numerous chemical technologies can be used for
the electrodes. Unlike conventional lithium-ion
batteries, however, which have a liquid electrolyte,
this version has a solid electrolyte, usually made
of a ceramic (inorganic electrolyte) or a polymer
(organic electrolyte).
Solid-state batteries promise a longer lifespan
and much greater safety than liquid electrolyte
technologies, which are flammable. The solid
electrolyte also allows for different electrode
materials, notably, lithium metal can be used as the
anode material, instead of carbon/silicon typically
used in current lithium-ion batteries. This could
lead to a 70% increase in volumetric energy density,
compared with those that use conventional anode
materials, plus a better cycle life, lower weight and
lower cost).
One recently reported design claims to actually
increase its capacity over time, and have a very high
lifespan of 23,000 cycles.

https://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/towards_the_battery_of_the_future_FB20_en.pdf

[sparky Paul]

Every article I have read says fast charging kills Li-Ion batteries... it is the #1 enemy,  and it is not just the heat.

Nobody denies that current technology is flawed, this point has been made several times on here. However, 350kW charging is here now, and I can't imagine that carmakers would intentionally pursue a technology that would kill their batteries. They must think it will work.