Author Topic: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one  (Read 5710 times)

JimSh

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2021, 12:55:11 PM »


Nobody knows how many 'future' deaths will be caused by the cancellation of pretty much every other NHS service but Covid treatment for last 18 months+, it could well dwarf the  'suspected' Covid deaths ( 'with Covid' vs 'from Covid' )  counted in UK by  NHS.  Vast majority of covid deaths so far happened in people over 60 with 2 OR MORE existing co-morbidities ( serious chronic health conditions  that could kill them at any time anyway ).   The average covid death in UK is still >80 years old, with 75% in people over 80 and 90% in people over 60.

But these deaths are caused indirectly by covid.
If there had been no covid these deaths could have been avoided. What would you have the doctors do? Ignore covid and carry on as normal?
Doctors are now trying to catch up on cancelled appointments as well as treat an ever increasing number of covid patients again.
Winter is always busier than summer due to infections and increasing A and E.due to slips etc.This winter is probably going to be particularly bad for flu.
The doctors are trying to plan for a busy winter but are being hindered by the "wait and see till it's too late again" attitude of the politicians.

https://www.bma.org.uk/bma-media-centre/incredibly-concerning-that-government-is-not-taking-more-action-to-protect-public-against-covid-warns-bma



Last edit Added link
« Last Edit: October 21, 2021, 02:24:04 PM by JimSh »

culzean

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2021, 02:29:29 PM »


Nobody knows how many 'future' deaths will be caused by the cancellation of pretty much every other NHS service but Covid treatment for last 18 months+, it could well dwarf the  'suspected' Covid deaths ( 'with Covid' vs 'from Covid' )  counted in UK by  NHS.  Vast majority of covid deaths so far happened in people over 60 with 2 OR MORE existing co-morbidities ( serious chronic health conditions  that could kill them at any time anyway ).   The average covid death in UK is still >80 years old, with 75% in people over 80 and 90% in people over 60.

But these deaths are caused indirectly by covid.
If there had been no covid these deaths could have been avoided. What would you have the doctors do? Ignore covid and carry on as normal?
Doctors are now trying to catch up on cancelled appointments as well as treat an ever increasing number of covid patients again.
Winter is always busier than summer due to infections and increasing A and E.due to slips etc.This winter is probably going to be particularly bad for flu.
The doctors are trying to plan for a busy winter but are being hindered by the "wait and see till it's too late again" attitude of the politicians.

The whole thing is, vast majority affected by Covid are over 60 ( about 95% of total ), and over 80 ( 75% of total),  vast majority of 'future deaths' due to lack of treatment and diagnosis will undoubtedly be younger age group.  The oldies ( me included ) were most probably retired, did not have to go anywhere to work etc and could easily shield at home - with necessities ( including toilet paper ) delivered to their door with no loss of income - did covid really necessitate  the draconian lockdowns ( which only started when cases were already dropping if you look at date of peak infections and lockdown start date), and almost complete closing of NHS services ?  During lockdowns most of NHS and GP's must have been twiddling their thumbs.  Sweden suffered about the same infection 'wave' profile as UK,  and did not have lockdowns.
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

JimSh

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2021, 03:18:30 PM »

The whole thing is, vast majority affected by Covid are over 60 ( about 95% of total ), and over 80 ( 75% of total),  vast majority of 'future deaths' due to lack of treatment and diagnosis will undoubtedly be younger age group.  The oldies ( me included ) were most probably retired, did not have to go anywhere to work etc and could easily shield at home - with necessities ( including toilet paper ) delivered to their door with no loss of income - did covid really necessitate  the draconian lockdowns ( which only started when cases were already dropping if you look at date of peak infections and lockdown start date), and almost complete closing of NHS services ? 
Unfortunately, all age groups have been affected by covid. The old and infirm may have suffered the most deaths but the young have been infected and many have died and many have passed on the disease to more vulnerable relations.
As the more vulnerable acquired immunity through vaccination the virus spread more widely through younger age groups.


  During lockdowns most of NHS and GP's must have been twiddling their thumbs.  Sweden suffered about the same infection 'wave' profile as UK,  and did not have lockdowns.

You must be joking.
[link removed by Admin]
from last January

Why the obsession with comparisons with Sweden?
Sweden did not fare as well as other Scandinavian countries.
Swedes adopted working from home voluntarily.

At the moment the UK has far more infections and deaths than other European countries which have opened up their economies but still maintain mask wearing, working from home, social distancing
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..2021-10-19&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~ITA~FRA~DEU~ESP~SWEand vaccine passports

Nobody wants another lockdown.
Perhaps by adopting plan B earlier rather than later one can be avoided.

« Last Edit: October 21, 2021, 08:20:39 PM by RichardA »

Kremmen

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2021, 04:12:32 PM »
A friend has just returned from Barcelona and told me 99% are wearing masks on public transport.

What is it with the UK mentality that they don't wear masks when asked to help protect themselves and others.

TfL have said that mask wearing is a 'condition of carriage' but even so, and even with all buses having clear signs they are 50/50 maskless. Tesco have signs asking for masks to be worn but few do.

Infections rising fast - not at all surprised.

One of the charts they showed yesterday on the 17:00 briefing clearly highlighted the majority of hospital cases haven't been vaccinated.
Let's be careful out there !

madasafish

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2021, 04:36:32 PM »
A friend has just returned from Barcelona and told me 99% are wearing masks on public transport.

What is it with the UK mentality that they don't wear masks when asked to help protect themselves and others.

TfL have said that mask wearing is a 'condition of carriage' but even so, and even with all buses having clear signs they are 50/50 maskless. Tesco have signs asking for masks to be worn but few do.

Infections rising fast - not at all surprised.

One of the charts they showed yesterday on the 17:00 briefing clearly highlighted the majority of hospital cases haven't been vaccinated.

I know a local taxi driver f Pakistani origin,
None of his local group have been vaccinated. A number in their 40s have died ,



guest4871

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2021, 06:26:44 PM »
GP practices contracted to supply NHS services should invoice the NHS for each NHS consultation just as they invoice individuals, or their insurer, for private patients. Waiting lists would suddenly plummet!

I have to say, I can find no reason to disagree with this proposal. Equally, the NHS could then hold the GP Practice to account for the quality of their referrals. Don't pretend to run it like a business. Actually run it like a business.

Further, I would give everyone a number of 'free' GP consultations. If you miss your appointment, you lose the pass too. If you make the appointment, you get another pass. If you have no passes, you have to pay or face a long wait. Missed appointments would suddenly plummet.

Fair point, but if GPs had to account for their consultations to NHS and no consultation and no chargeable fee to NHS took place, it would be the GP who would manage the no shows. After 3 warnings they could strike them off their list and the patient would have to register elsewhere (with a poor attendance/ credit rating score?).

culzean

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2021, 06:42:39 PM »
Only <5% of deaths accounted for by under 60's,  and the number drops exponentially as you go down the age range the under 40's <0.5%

Many articles have been published about the impossibility of comparing infections and deaths in different countries, one thing is they all count Covid ( 'with' and 'from' ) deaths differently ( China does not seem to count anything ). The WHO did warn in March 2020 the the UK should expect large number of covid deaths because 'the NHS is so good at keeping chronically ill older people alive',  a bit of a backhanded compliment really, but as a nation we are not very healthy anyway.
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

guest4871

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2021, 07:33:57 PM »
I know a local taxi driver f Pakistani origin,
None of his local group have been vaccinated. A number in their 40s have died ,

It would be helpful if more detailed information was published so that one could take a rational view rather than being feed just sensationalised headline stuff.

I suspect, with those of Pakistani origin,  it is a religious thing which is fair enough.

guest4871

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2021, 07:47:57 PM »
More to do with massaging the figures I think.  When I went in to collect a neighbours prescriptions a short time ago our local pharmacist said 'all the GP doctors are hiding'....  The lower access to GP's has gone on for years, with their appointments 'in two weeks time',  seems to date from when they were given a big pay rise and turned into accountants and having a budget as primary care commissioning practices or something.  The few times I have been to out GP they normally send you to hospital anyway  for blood test or some minor test, so many people are just cutting the middleman ( GP ) out and going straight to A&E anyway, our local hospital used to have a quick access drop-in centre ( not A&E ),  but I think it got too popular so they scrapped it.

Yes it has got so stupid that our local hospital decided to just close it's A&E full stop.

madasafish

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2021, 11:15:36 AM »
"Four in ten people admitted to hospital with Covid-19 are not fully vaccinated, according to official figures that will increase pressure on ministers to reach those who have refused a jab.

Of nearly 7,400 people admitted to hospital in England in recent weeks, about 2,500 had yet to receive a single dose and a further 400 had been given only their first."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/two-thirds-young-adults-hospital-did-not-get-covid-vaccine-rdcr65xhp

Darwinism in action when unvaccinated people account for approx.10% of the population

Kremmen

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #25 on: October 22, 2021, 11:37:28 AM »
They were saying on the news this morning that this third Pfizer booster jab is making a huge difference with close to 100% effectiveness as it's been developed for the latest variants.

Mine should be due in a few weeks.

That will be my 4th jab this year. May get a dartboard tattooed on my arm.
Let's be careful out there !

JimSh

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #26 on: October 22, 2021, 03:11:40 PM »
"Four in ten people admitted to hospital with Covid-19 are not fully vaccinated, according to official figures that will increase pressure on ministers to reach those who have refused a jab.

Of nearly 7,400 people admitted to hospital in England in recent weeks, about 2,500 had yet to receive a single dose and a further 400 had been given only their first."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/two-thirds-young-adults-hospital-did-not-get-covid-vaccine-rdcr65xhp

Darwinism in action when unvaccinated people account for approx.10% of the population

Perhaps the young people in the article were suffering under the dangerous misapprehension that Covid was not a danger to them.   ::)




The whole thing is, vast majority affected by Covid are over 60 ( about 95% of total ), and over 80 ( 75% of total),  vast majority of 'future deaths' due to lack of treatment and diagnosis will undoubtedly be younger age group.  The oldies ( me included ) were most probably retired, did not have to go anywhere to work etc and could easily shield at home - with necessities ( including toilet paper ) delivered to their door with no loss of income - did covid really necessitate  the draconian lockdowns ( which only started when cases were already dropping if you look at date of peak infections and lockdown start date), and almost complete closing of NHS services ?  During lockdowns most of NHS and GP's must have been twiddling their thumbs. 

You must be joking.  :o
Since the article posted in a previous post has been removed by the admin., I offer up another article from April 2020, the illustration in which at first appears to support Culzean's assertion, but I assume the doctor in the picture is not just sitting down on the job.
https://www.bma.org.uk/news-and-opinion/stress-and-burnout-warning-over-covid-19

Plus another
https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2409250026766/bma-says-government-is-wilfully-negligent-for-ruling-out-plan-b-despite-covid-surge

Edit typos
https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2410964297409/covid-plan-b-prepare-to-bring-in-measures-now-sage-advisers-warn-government

Second edit added last link
« Last Edit: October 22, 2021, 03:30:52 PM by JimSh »

JimSh

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #27 on: October 22, 2021, 10:44:05 PM »
Latest Indie Sage meeting here for those interested.

Click Watch on You Tube
Edit added instruction

They also released a statement on testing at Immensa  laboratories
https://www.independentsage.org/statement-on-covid-19-testing-at-immensa-health-clinic-dante-laboratories/
« Last Edit: October 22, 2021, 11:01:52 PM by JimSh »

John Ratsey

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #28 on: October 23, 2021, 05:53:18 PM »
They were saying on the news this morning that this third Pfizer booster jab is making a huge difference with close to 100% effectiveness as it's been developed for the latest variants.
AFAIK any tweaked versions of the vaccines are still only at the trials stage. However, the effectiveness of the original Pfizer jab in preventing covid infections in the over-65s is less than 50% after 6 months (AZ is even worse) although both will most likely prevent hospitalisation. I discovered the poor defence the hard way as I got a dose of the real thing (probably, I discovered afetrwards, from an ardent anti-vaxxer) a week before being eligible for a booster. It was like having a bad cold but with the added hassle of having to isolate (still ongoing) to minimise the risk of passing it on. There's talk of reducing the gap before the booster to 5 months. While this may be driven by the politicians's desire to see more boosters dispensed, I know I'm not alone in getting infected close to the 6 month mark and this may be a factor in the suggested change.
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culzean

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #29 on: October 23, 2021, 06:44:53 PM »
They were saying on the news this morning that this third Pfizer booster jab is making a huge difference with close to 100% effectiveness as it's been developed for the latest variants.
AFAIK any tweaked versions of the vaccines are still only at the trials stage. However, the effectiveness of the original Pfizer jab in preventing covid infections in the over-65s is less than 50% after 6 months (AZ is even worse) although both will most likely prevent hospitalisation. I discovered the poor defence the hard way as I got a dose of the real thing (probably, I discovered afetrwards, from an ardent anti-vaxxer) a week before being eligible for a booster. It was like having a bad cold but with the added hassle of having to isolate (still ongoing) to minimise the risk of passing it on. There's talk of reducing the gap before the booster to 5 months. While this may be driven by the politicians's desire to see more boosters dispensed, I know I'm not alone in getting infected close to the 6 month mark and this may be a factor in the suggested change.

A recent study in Israel ( the country with the greatest vaccine experience ) found that Alpha variant AZ vaccine protections dropped a lot more slowly than the Pfizer one,  the Pfizer protection peaks after about 6 weeks to two months and then drops off rapidly, now another study found the same result.  The effectiveness of both vaccine boosters against Delta about the same,  but now there is a rumour that two doses of booster may be required.

https://www.firstpost.com/health/astrazenecas-vaccine-effectiveness-against-coivd-19-lasts-longer-than-pfizers-finds-study-9899721.html

They also found that people who have recovered from Covid have much better longer lasting immunity then the immunity from Pfizer vaccine, even if they had not been exposed to delta variant before they had very good immunity without needing  booster shot.

https://newsrescue.com/large-israel-study-confirms-previous-infection-better-protection-against-delta-than-pfizer-shot/

« Last Edit: October 23, 2021, 07:02:35 PM by culzean »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

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