Author Topic: New South African variant.  (Read 16721 times)

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #390 on: January 21, 2022, 01:43:00 PM »
So he has a history of COVID-19 misinformation. Typical.

I don't know how you can say that, he has been pretty much on the money throughout - and according to you by quoting office of national statistics data ( that document he is drawing on is a reprint of the official ONS release - link to it is below ) he is 'telling lies'.  A lot of people suspected that the died 'from covid' and 'with covid' figures were getting mixed up,  and the same in other countries.  It suited SAGE and governments not to correct them because they looked a lot scarier as they were.  If this does not ring alarm bells in peoples minds about how they have been manipulated then nothing will.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsfromcovid19withnootherunderlyingcauses

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/preexistingconditionsofpeoplewhodiedduetocovid19englandandwales
« Last Edit: January 21, 2022, 02:21:07 PM by culzean »
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Lord Voltermore

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #391 on: January 21, 2022, 03:58:52 PM »
I notice that for the last few days the BBC news, when reporting daily  deaths 'within 28 days of a positive covid test' now specifically say  this includes deaths that were not actually due to covid. 

The current daily figures, typically 300 -400,sound a lot compared to summer figures, and dont sit well with proposals to relax restrictions.  But may need to be put into context  Death rates have always risen considerably in winter months. 
Sorry if its too long winded. I failed my brevity exam at school. Ran out of paper.

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #392 on: January 21, 2022, 05:47:53 PM »
Some data is being used falsely (or, at least, wrongly).

The quoted life expectancies of 79.0 (m) and 82.9 (f) are for newborn babies and have nothing at all to do with recent deaths of old people.

If you reach the age of 65, your life expectancy is another 18.5y (m) and 21.0y (f) making 83.5 (m) and 86.0 (f).

If you reach the age of 80, your life expectancy is another 8.4y (m) and 9.7y (f) making 88.4 (m) and 89.7 (f).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2018to2020#life-expectancy-at-older-ages

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/nationallifetablesunitedkingdomreferencetables





I seriously doubt if those figures apply to people with multiple ( 2 or more ) serious health conditions, which is the cohort being discussed in relation to covid deaths.
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #393 on: January 21, 2022, 05:59:37 PM »
I notice that for the last few days the BBC news, when reporting daily  deaths 'within 28 days of a positive covid test' now specifically say  this includes deaths that were not actually due to covid. 

The current daily figures, typically 300 -400,sound a lot compared to summer figures, and dont sit well with proposals to relax restrictions.  But may need to be put into context  Death rates have always risen considerably in winter months.

In a normal year with no panic-demic 1500 people a day die ( >500,000 a year ).  In London the 'incidental covid' cases ( people admitted for other treatments and found to have covid, often with no symptoms in routine tests ) is now >60%,  in the rest of UK incidental cases are approaching 50%.  That means these are then classed as 'covid' cases in hospital for data.  If that person then dies from what they were actually admitted for,  they will be counted as a covid death using BBC method.  If you take % who actually died 'from' covid rather than 'with covid' in the December 16th ONS FOI data release ( roughly 10% of deaths ) that means 30 or 40 per day actually dying directly from covid, which is actually better than the average flu season deaths ( 15 to 20,000 over winter months ),  and we never have any precautions for seasonal influenza.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2022, 06:25:53 PM by culzean »
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Bazzzer

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #394 on: January 21, 2022, 08:20:27 PM »
I seriously doubt if those figures apply to people with multiple ( 2 or more ) serious health conditions, which is the cohort being discussed in relation to covid deaths.

At least we agree on something.

But YOU were the one who introduced the life expectancy figures, prompted by the bloke in the YouTube video.

The life expectancy of children born today - those were the figures that you posted - will not be affected by last year's COVID.  It's ludicrous to suggest otherwise.

If a prevention/cure can be found for prostate or ovarian cancer, that's the sort of thing that will have a positive effect on the life expectancy of kids born in the 2020s.

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #395 on: January 21, 2022, 08:41:56 PM »
I seriously doubt if those figures apply to people with multiple ( 2 or more ) serious health conditions, which is the cohort being discussed in relation to covid deaths.

At least we agree on something.

But YOU were the one who introduced the life expectancy figures, prompted by the bloke in the YouTube video.

The life expectancy of children born today - those were the figures that you posted - will not be affected by last year's COVID.  It's ludicrous to suggest otherwise.

If a prevention/cure can be found for prostate or ovarian cancer, that's the sort of thing that will have a positive effect on the life expectancy of kids born in the 2020s.

The life expectancy figures the ONS use are based on lifetime expectancy. You confused the issue by introducing incremental life expectancies of healthy people based on age today.  The figures you posted that a 85 year old can expect another X number of years certainly apply to a healthy person, but not, as I pointed out an already very sick 85 year old.  Your figures have no relevance to the subject being discussed. 
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #396 on: January 21, 2022, 08:46:44 PM »
I notice that for the last few days the BBC news, when reporting daily  deaths 'within 28 days of a positive covid test' now specifically say  this includes deaths that were not actually due to covid. 

The current daily figures, typically 300 -400,sound a lot compared to summer figures, and dont sit well with proposals to relax restrictions.  But may need to be put into context  Death rates have always risen considerably in winter months.
AS Jocko pointed out earlier the only really reliable statistic is excess mortality

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2020to2021provisionaland2019to2020final
Explanation of changes in presentation.
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2022/01/12/understanding-excess-deaths-during-a-pandemic/

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #397 on: January 21, 2022, 09:00:19 PM »


The life expectancy figures the ONS use are based on lifetime expectancy. You confused the issue by introducing incremental life expectancies of healthy people based on age today.  The figures you posted that a 85 year old can expect another X number of years certainly apply to a healthy person, but not, as I pointed out an already very sick 85 year old.  Your figures have no relevance to the subject being discussed.
I think you have misunderstood the figures Bazzer was quoting.
The lifetime expectancy at birth is going to include people who die young.
If you survive child hood illnesses and car crashes in your young daft days etc. you can expect to live longer than the average life expectancy of a person at birth (which includes the ages of people now deceased)

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #398 on: January 22, 2022, 09:24:26 AM »


The life expectancy figures the ONS use are based on lifetime expectancy. You confused the issue by introducing incremental life expectancies of healthy people based on age today.  The figures you posted that a 85 year old can expect another X number of years certainly apply to a healthy person, but not, as I pointed out an already very sick 85 year old.  Your figures have no relevance to the subject being discussed.
I think you have misunderstood the figures Bazzer was quoting.
The lifetime expectancy at birth is going to include people who die young.
If you survive child hood illnesses and car crashes in your young daft days etc. you can expect to live longer than the average life expectancy of a person at birth (which includes the ages of people now deceased)

You completely misunderstood my point,  what I was saying is that vast majority of people who have 'succumbed' 'with covid' so far have been over 85 with multiple ( 2 or more ) pre-existing serious health conditions.  Those figures Bazzer quoted were for 'healthy' people over of age 75, 85 etc.  No doctor in the  world is going to consider that an 85 year old with serious heart problems coupled with at least one other chronic condition like emphysema or diabetes ( or both ) is going to have 9 years of life remaining.  Right at the start of this panic-demic the WHO said that UK could expect bad death figures from Covid because the NHS was so good at keeping seriously ill older people alive, but those same seriously ill older people would be exactly the ones in the crosshairs of the virus.  That forecast has turned out to be true, because 75% of deaths been over 85 and a whopping 95% over 65, all with multiple pre-existing health issues. 
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #399 on: January 22, 2022, 09:29:04 AM »
I notice that for the last few days the BBC news, when reporting daily  deaths 'within 28 days of a positive covid test' now specifically say  this includes deaths that were not actually due to covid. 

The current daily figures, typically 300 -400,sound a lot compared to summer figures, and dont sit well with proposals to relax restrictions.  But may need to be put into context  Death rates have always risen considerably in winter months.
AS Jocko pointed out earlier the only really reliable statistic is excess mortality

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2020to2021provisionaland2019to2020final
Explanation of changes in presentation.
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2022/01/12/understanding-excess-deaths-during-a-pandemic/

If you take the 'from covid' figure in ONS release,  there is no real excess mortality, it works out at about 8,500 people per year ( less than an average influenza year ).  Where it gets 'excess' is the 'with covid' figures, which is almost entirely made up of people over 65 with multile pre-existing serious health problems.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2022, 10:03:25 AM by culzean »
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JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #400 on: January 22, 2022, 12:00:37 PM »


The life expectancy figures the ONS use are based on lifetime expectancy. You confused the issue by introducing incremental life expectancies of healthy people based on age today.  The figures you posted that a 85 year old can expect another X number of years certainly apply to a healthy person, but not, as I pointed out an already very sick 85 year old.  Your figures have no relevance to the subject being discussed.
I think you have misunderstood the figures Bazzer was quoting.
The lifetime expectancy at birth is going to include people who die young.
If you survive child hood illnesses and car crashes in your young daft days etc. you can expect to live longer than the average life expectancy of a person at birth (which includes the ages of people now deceased)

You completely misunderstood my point,  what I was saying is that vast majority of people who have 'succumbed' 'with covid' so far have been over 85 with multiple ( 2 or more ) pre-existing serious health conditions.  Those figures Bazzer quoted were for 'healthy' people over of age 75, 85 etc. 
The figures from the paper Bazzer quoted were for average people.
Some  will be carrying some kind of condition. Some will not. Some conditions will be more well managed than others.
That is the nature of average.
Lots of people, who would otherwise have had years of life to look forward to, with or without underlying conditions have been killed by covid whether or not by covid alone.

The other point I was making was that life expectancy  at age (say) eighty is greater than life expectancy at birth.
If you consider 100 people with a life expectancy of eighty (at birth) and by the time you reach eighty say 50 have already died at an average age of seventy, the remaining 50 might expect to have 10 years left to maintain the average life expectancy at birth.
(this is a simplification since the average rate of death increases with age, but I hope it makes the point)

Edit Upped the ages in the example by 10 years to bring it more into line with the John Campbell video.

Second edit to Culzean I suggest you re-read (or read) the link I gave a couple of days ago
in post Reply #377 on: January 20, 2022, 03:36:03 PM
https://www.futurity.org/cdc-covid-19-comorbidities-2436032-2/

« Last Edit: January 22, 2022, 06:05:09 PM by JimSh »

Basil

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #401 on: January 22, 2022, 12:21:37 PM »
Christmas Eve 2020 my 90 year old father, who had prostate cancer, went into hospital with a bad water infection, he was so weak that he could hardly stand. After a week or two they cured his water infection and were giving him physiotherapy to get him more mobile and my mother was expecting him home.

We then had a phone call to say he had developed a bit of a cough and had tested positive for covid, he had only had his first jab the week before the test. The following week I visited him in a covid ward to goodbye, he was unconscious but I could hear him struggling to breathe, 24 hours later he passed away.

Covid was mentioned on the death certificate but also the other conditions, I don't know how long he would have lived if he hadn't caught covid but it could have been a year or two.

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #402 on: January 22, 2022, 12:31:03 PM »
Sorry to hear about that.

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #403 on: January 22, 2022, 05:39:39 PM »
Yesterday's  Indy Sage meeting.
After the presentation of the figures the discussion was devoted to long covid and the effeccts it could have on the future of children and on the economy.
Most people affected by long covid are frontline workers working in healthcare, social care,education, retail etc.
Many are unable to work. Some have been forced to retire or have even been sacked.
Children will find immediate difficulties in sitting exams and the long term effects are unknown.
If you watch nothing else, the last five minutes in answer to a general question are worth watching.


culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #404 on: January 26, 2022, 03:11:14 PM »
Extract from an article on the efficacy of lockdowns on death rates in UK,  England dropped most restrictions while Wales, NI and Scotland kept restrictions in place.

But what we can do is to compare Covid death rates in England, where most restrictions were lifted on 19 July until Plan B came in last month, with death rates in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, where tougher restrictions outlasted those in England. In Scotland, the mask mandate was never lifted. Vaccine passports for large venues were introduced in the country on 1 October last year, in Wales on 11 October and in Northern Ireland on 29 November. On work-from-home guidance (reintroduced last month), Wales was militant — it became a criminal offence to go to work if you could feasibly do your job at home. Northern Ireland retained restrictions on the number of people who could meet indoors.

And the results? Since 19 July, England has had 21,098 Covid deaths — a rate of 37.3 per 100,000 people. Wales had 1,195, a rate of 37.7, Scotland had 2,422, a rate of 44.3 and Northern Ireland had 914, a rate of 48.2.


Here is link to article - behind a paywall but try it..

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/did-plan-b-work-

 
« Last Edit: January 26, 2022, 06:18:08 PM by culzean »
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