Author Topic: New South African variant.  (Read 17713 times)

ColinB

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #375 on: January 20, 2022, 02:26:06 PM »
A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, with no other co-morbidities, "from" covid as opposed to "With" it. The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 (and the average age was over 82, more than the average life expectation in UK!).  About 10% of the claimed deaths 'from' covid which had been used by the government and SAGE to justify draconian restrictions and lockdowns, wrecking the economy in the process, plunging the country into depression and increasing the National Debt by over 800 billion to 2.3 trillion

Yet again unfortunately no citation so this cannot be checked or trusted. No reliable source = fake news.
Whereas this BBC webpage ...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
... if you scroll down to the penultimate graphic puts the excess deaths at around 150,000. And it cites the data sources so you can go back and check. ONS is quoted as saying total deaths involving Covid is around 175,000, which makes me wonder whether the 17,300 you mention is a misquote with the decimal point in the wrong place.

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #376 on: January 20, 2022, 02:41:10 PM »
A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, with no other co-morbidities, "from" covid as opposed to "With" it. The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 (and the average age was over 82, more than the average life expectation in UK!).  About 10% of the claimed deaths 'from' covid which had been used by the government and SAGE to justify draconian restrictions and lockdowns, wrecking the economy in the process, plunging the country into depression and increasing the National Debt by over 800 billion to 2.3 trillion

Yet again unfortunately no citation so this cannot be checked or trusted. No reliable source = fake news.
Whereas this BBC webpage ...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
... if you scroll down to the penultimate graphic puts the excess deaths at around 150,000. And it cites the data sources so you can go back and check. ONS is quoted as saying total deaths involving Covid is around 175,000, which makes me wonder whether the 17,300 you mention is a misquote with the decimal point in the wrong place.

Decimal place in wrong place, very funny - it was actually SAGE who moved the decimal point one place to the right.  We always knew deaths purely 'from' covid ( relatively healthy people with no other real health issues ) were being massively over-counted.   The big clue was that 75% of covid deaths were over 85,  and 95% were over 60 and all with '2 or more' pre-existing serious chronic health condition - it does not take Einstein to work out what the problem was,  a lot of the Covid deaths would have been 'influenza' deaths in a bad seasonal flu year,  but country has never been locked down for influenza.  Flu pretty much disappeared during last 2 yearsn and in an 'average flu year' there are about 20,000 deaths.  Data also shows that 48% of people in hospital with covid are now 'incidental' admissions, they were admitted for other treatments but when admitted or already in hospital were found to be positive and had to be moved to 'covid areas', even though they had no real symptoms...  Looks like Boris was correct not to lock down again.
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #377 on: January 20, 2022, 03:36:03 PM »

A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, with no other co-morbidities, "from" covid as opposed to "With" it. The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 (and the average age was over 82, more than the average life expectation in UK!).  About 10% of the claimed deaths 'from' covid which had been used by the government and SAGE to justify draconian restrictions and lockdowns, wrecking the economy in the process, plunging the country into depression and increasing the National Debt by over 800 billion to 2.3 trillion

This argument has been hyped up again on social media as a result of (deliberate) misinterpretation of a report
by the CDC in the USA.
The most common co-morbidities are respiratory diseases which have been exacerbated by covid.
They would not necessarily died had they not had covid.

"That people had co-morbidities does not mean they did not die of #COVID19. COVID may have caused them or worked synergistically to kill them. There have been over 200,000 excess all cause deaths in the US this year, if COVID19 is not pushing up the numbers, what is?  #COVIDKills"

"Social media is home to many misinterpretations of a recent CDC report on comorbidities and the coronavirus. Epidemiologist Justin Lessler sets things straight."
https://www.futurity.org/cdc-covid-19-comorbidities-2436032-2/

Edit Typo
« Last Edit: January 20, 2022, 04:13:52 PM by JimSh »

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #378 on: January 20, 2022, 04:03:57 PM »

a lot of the Covid deaths would have been 'influenza' deaths in a bad seasonal flu year,  but country has never been locked down for influenza.  Flu pretty much disappeared during last 2 yearsn and in an 'average flu year' there are about 20,000 deaths. 
This graphic showing the number of deaths from Covid (or even with Covid if you must) from early 2020 shows the difference between deaths from Covid and deaths from other causes.
What do you think would have happened if lockdowns had not been imposed or vaccines developed?

Jocko

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #379 on: January 20, 2022, 04:45:36 PM »
I have high blood pressure and I am overweight. Two co-morbidities. But I am fit, living a great life, and not ready to pop my clogs anytime soon. The only true measure is excess deaths.

Bazzzer

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #380 on: January 20, 2022, 04:49:55 PM »
The 17,000 deaths from COVID 19 are as follows-

2020: 9400 (0-64: 1549 / 65 and over: 7851)

2021 Q1: 6483 (0-64: 1560/ 65 and over: 4923)

2021 Q2: 346 (0-64: 153/ 65 and over: 193)

2021 Q3: 1142 (0-64: 512/ 65 and over: 630)

(copied from the ONS report)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19alonewithnounderlininghealthissuesnovemeber2019todecember2021

Lord Voltermore

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #381 on: January 20, 2022, 05:16:48 PM »

a lot of the Covid deaths would have been 'influenza' deaths in a bad seasonal flu year,  but country has never been locked down for influenza.  Flu pretty much disappeared during last 2 yearsn and in an 'average flu year' there are about 20,000 deaths. 
This graphic showing the number of deaths from Covid (or even with Covid if you must) from early 2020 shows the difference between deaths from Covid and deaths from other causes.
What do you think would have happened if lockdowns had not been imposed or vaccines developed?

If vaccines hadnt been developed things would currently be much worse.
  But why do you prefer to be pessimistic and  look at  the very worrying covid  death statistics from 2 years ago (pre vaccine) overlaid on flu and pneumonia deaths from 4 years ago ?   This is not where we are at now. 

Can I suggest you also go back 300 years and  read 'Journal of the plague year' by Daniel Defoe.( Available free on Kindle).  Although written in 1720 it refers  to the plague of 1665 and there are some remarkable similarities  with  the current situation .   Even this  book has some elements  of optimism.     Its actually a very good read.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2022, 05:28:34 PM by Lord Voltermore »
Sorry if its too long winded. I failed my brevity exam at school. Ran out of paper.

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #382 on: January 20, 2022, 05:59:12 PM »
It was in answer to Culzean's suggestion that covid was no more serious than flu.
You are correct in that it is not where we are now but restrictions were necessary until vaccines had been developed and administered.
Hopefully we are now approaching the situation where covid will be treated in a similar way to flu but I don't think we are quite there yet.

ColinB

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #383 on: January 20, 2022, 10:45:48 PM »
The 17,000 deaths from COVID 19 are as follows-

2020: 9400 (0-64: 1549 / 65 and over: 7851)

2021 Q1: 6483 (0-64: 1560/ 65 and over: 4923)

2021 Q2: 346 (0-64: 153/ 65 and over: 193)

2021 Q3: 1142 (0-64: 512/ 65 and over: 630)

(copied from the ONS report)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19alonewithnounderlininghealthissuesnovemeber2019todecember2021

That seems to be the source of the data quoted by Culzean earlier, so thank you. But it seems to me that's a very small subset of the deaths due to COVID because it only includes people who have no other condition ... and how many people have nothing else wrong with them? Consider someone with an underlying condition (maybe heart disease or diabetes) that is well controlled and they have a reasonable life expectancy. If they get COVID and pass away, they will not appear in those stats but no-one could reasonably argue that they didn't die from COVID. The only sensible estimate must come from excess death figures, which are very many more than 17,000 ... ONS suggests closer to 150,000.

Kremmen

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #384 on: January 21, 2022, 04:28:54 AM »
For the foreseeable future I will still wear a mask and I will still only go to enclosed areas / shops on a need basis. I think it's too early and I feel for office workers who have been ordered back.

Yesterday's new cases were still above 100k and not dropping as I see published.

Looking at the cases map though Wales and Scotland are fairing far better than England.
Let's be careful out there !

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #385 on: January 21, 2022, 08:09:57 AM »
Here is something that puts things in perspective about all the other health problems that have carried on regardless of covid, and may already have resulted in early deaths,  but will result in many deaths in coming years...  Over the pandemic there has been a average 7 week reduction in average life expectancy for men, but actually an increase for women.  The most shocking thing is that this information has been available for about a month, and I have seen absolutely no mention of it in mainstream media,  it is almost as if they didn't want people to know.... :o


« Last Edit: January 21, 2022, 08:24:16 AM by culzean »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

Bazzzer

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #386 on: January 21, 2022, 09:06:02 AM »
Some data is being used falsely (or, at least, wrongly).

The quoted life expectancies of 79.0 (m) and 82.9 (f) are for newborn babies and have nothing at all to do with recent deaths of old people.

If you reach the age of 65, your life expectancy is another 18.5y (m) and 21.0y (f) making 83.5 (m) and 86.0 (f).

If you reach the age of 80, your life expectancy is another 8.4y (m) and 9.7y (f) making 88.4 (m) and 89.7 (f).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2018to2020#life-expectancy-at-older-ages

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/nationallifetablesunitedkingdomreferencetables




hemming

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #387 on: January 21, 2022, 09:34:49 AM »
Interesting clip - who is the gent and what organisation,  if any, is he speaking on behalf of please.

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #388 on: January 21, 2022, 10:25:50 AM »
« Last Edit: January 21, 2022, 10:27:35 AM by JimSh »

Jocko

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #389 on: January 21, 2022, 11:11:17 AM »
So he has a history of COVID-19 misinformation. Typical.

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