Author Topic: New South African variant.  (Read 19279 times)

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #420 on: February 01, 2022, 01:12:37 PM »
A previous infection with any variant seems to give immunity against serious illness from other variants.  Coronavirus family include common cold, for which there has never been a vaccine.  SARS-Cov-2 appears to be going the same way as common cold and will and become a 'background'  illness that everyone just learns to lives with, and maybe only kills or causes complications in the already very ill or immuno-suppressed. 

Quote from your link..

'While the inclusion of reinfections means the case-fatality risk – the proportion of people reported to be diagnosed with Covid who go on to die – will fall, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at the University of Cambridge, cautioned the measure remains problematic'
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #421 on: February 01, 2022, 03:54:57 PM »
A previous infection with any variant seems to give immunity against serious illness from other variants.
A previous infection with another variant does not necessarily give immunity against omicron, otherwise there would be no reinfections.
Omicron does not appear to be as severe but you are jumping to conclusions again.

Coronavirus family include common cold, for which there has never been a vaccine.  SARS-Cov-2 appears to be going the same way as common cold and will and become a 'background'  illness that everyone just learns to lives with, and maybe only kills or causes complications in the already very ill or immuno-suppressed. 
and again.

Quote from your link..

'While the inclusion of reinfections means the case-fatality risk – the proportion of people reported to be diagnosed with Covid who go on to die – will fall, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at the University of Cambridge, cautioned the measure remains problematic'
Fuller quote
"While the inclusion of reinfections means the case-fatality risk – the proportion of people reported to be diagnosed with Covid who go on to die – will fall, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at the University of Cambridge, cautioned the measure remains problematic.
“We have always known that the daily number of reported cases was a substantial undercount of the actual number of infections – the ONS Covid Infection Survey shows that we have to at least double the daily count,” he said.

“Including reinfections will be an improvement, and will reduce the apparent case-fatality rate, but nobody should have taken this very seriously anyway. The case-fatality ratio is inevitably an overestimate of what is the better measure – the infection fatality ratio, ie the proportion of those who are infected who die, whether or not they become confirmed cases.”

https://www.channel4.com/news/covid-reinfections-now-included-in-government-daily-figures

Edi added Channel 4 link
« Last Edit: February 03, 2022, 07:39:23 AM by JimSh »

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #422 on: February 04, 2022, 07:56:47 AM »
Interesting study from John Hopkins University in USA,  their large study found that lockdowns 'had a minute' effect on covid deaths,  bit of a read - 62 pages ( attached PDF ).
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JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #423 on: February 05, 2022, 03:53:51 PM »
Air quality, ventilation and filtration.


Slides available from this page. (Latest numbers)

https://www.independentsage.org/weekly-briefing-4th-february-2022/
Edit added link to slides (pdf)
« Last Edit: February 07, 2022, 05:13:45 PM by JimSh »

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #424 on: February 05, 2022, 07:52:28 PM »
Good article in nature.
COVID-19: endemic doesn’t mean harmless
Extract.
"There is a widespread, rosy misconception that viruses evolve over time to become more benign. This is not the case: there is no predestined evolutionary outcome for a virus to become more benign, especially ones, such as SARS-CoV-2, in which most transmission happens before the virus causes severe disease. Consider that Alpha and Delta are more virulent than the strain first found in Wuhan, China. The second wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic was far more deadly than the first."

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00155-x

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #425 on: February 10, 2022, 10:52:28 AM »
Quote from Spectator article, The South Africans were pressured by governments around the world, including UK to keep quiet about how mild Omicron was... shocking,  how many more times have we been lied to in last 2 years ?  Seems we were only allowed to 'listen to the science' after it had been massaged and filtered.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/omicron-doctor-attacks-uk-government-pressure-


'With case rates falling and Omicron (hopefully) in decline, it's a good time to remember some of the more hysterical predictions about the last Covid variant. For the South African doctor who discovered the Omicron strain has today given an interview to German newspaper Welt in which she reveals she was 'pressured' into describing the variant as more dangerous than it really is.

Dr Angelique Coetzee was one of the first to report the new variant in November last year and said it caused 'mild' symptoms for those in her country. But she claims she was told by scientists and politicians from around the globe that her description was wrong – and specifically references Britain as being one of those countries which tried to discourage her findings. Discussing the response of Western countries to the variant, she replied:

    “They definitely overreacted. When we tried to argue that it was a mild disease, because of the number of mutations, everyone said that wasn't true. People didn't want to believe it could be mild. You have to listen to the science, but you have to take into account the clinical picture that the doctors describe – what they see, because they are the first point of contact. And then both have to be reconciled. You always have to keep the balance between the clinical picture and the science – that didn't happen here."
« Last Edit: February 10, 2022, 10:56:31 AM by culzean »
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JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #426 on: February 10, 2022, 12:14:07 PM »
It would have been dangerous to extrapolate South African findings to UK in December for a number of reasons.

South African population younger.

South African population less vaccinated but more likely to have acquired immunity from previous infection.

Summer in SA Winter in UK.

Even if Omicron turned out to be  milder it was not known how much milder.  Omicron was known to be much more transmissable. The increased transmissability might have more than compensated for the decreased severity in terms of hospitals being able to cope.
Until the relative weightings of severity and transmissability were known it was prudent to be careful.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2022, 12:18:13 PM by JimSh »

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #427 on: February 10, 2022, 02:08:35 PM »
Until the relative weightings of severity and transmissability were known it was prudent to be careful.

Number of vaccinated in SA = 20%

number of vaccinated in UK = >90%

They hid the truth from us = unforgivable

John Hopkins Uni major study - Lockdowns = useless...

also guess what, Omicron so mild no booster was needed except for Pfizer profits.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2022, 02:10:07 PM by culzean »
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culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #428 on: February 10, 2022, 02:13:19 PM »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

Jocko

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #429 on: February 10, 2022, 02:45:59 PM »
Omicron so mild no booster was needed except for Pfizer profits.
My booster did nothing for Pfizer. We got the Moderna vaccine here.

peteo48

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #430 on: February 10, 2022, 03:00:56 PM »
Yes - we got Moderna as well for the boosters.

Jocko

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #431 on: February 10, 2022, 04:14:15 PM »
I think the idea was to give a different booster from the previous vaccines given.

Kremmen

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #432 on: February 10, 2022, 04:36:50 PM »
2 x AZ then a Pfizer boost here.
Let's be careful out there !

ColinB

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #433 on: February 10, 2022, 05:46:05 PM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60319947?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020220210%20%20House%20Ads%20%20SM+CID_abc30bfd3c78c4fad98fb376cf93b41e

About time too, second best decision after the one to not lock England down over Christmas and New Year....

<irony mode: on >
Bit of a bummer for those folks who are unable* to be vaccinated. They will either be petrified to leave their homes, or if they do have the temerity to venture out will be at much greater risk of an adverse outcome. Still they’re probably not economically significant and therefore fair game for sacrifice (literally) at the altar of Mammon.
<Irony mode: off>


*I distinguish between “unable” and “unwilling”; the latter can take their chances.

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #434 on: February 10, 2022, 06:14:20 PM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60319947?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020220210%20%20House%20Ads%20%20SM+CID_abc30bfd3c78c4fad98fb376cf93b41e

About time too, second best decision after the one to not lock England down over Christmas and New Year....

Both influenced by a desire to appease Tory backbenchers and appeal to gullible voters rather than "follow the Science", with a view to saving Johnson's job.

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