Author Topic: New South African variant.  (Read 17712 times)

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #405 on: January 26, 2022, 03:19:37 PM »
As expected now that they have fully accepted the mildness of Omicron, a climbdown ( in all but name, as the policy is now 'under review' ) by Sajid David on 'no jab- no job' policy for care and NHS workers.  He realised the damage the policy would do ( and has already done to care sector,  with 50,000 leaving for other jobs, on top of the already 115,000 existing vacancies  ) that the affect of an estimated 77,000 NHS staff leaving would have.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/plan-to-live-with-covid-will-focus-on-jabs-treatment-and-testing-sajid-javid-says-1423136?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020220126%20%20House%20Ads%20%20SM+CID_e655969990aa3df481f14d5f9ae5895c
« Last Edit: January 26, 2022, 05:00:02 PM by culzean »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

ColinB

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #406 on: January 28, 2022, 06:03:02 PM »
A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, with no other co-morbidities, "from" covid as opposed to "With" it. The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 ...

It's a bit late, but ONS have issued a comment about that use of their data:
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2022/01/26/to-say-only-17000-people-have-died-from-covid-19-is-highly-misleading/
Summary:
"It’s being claimed that the true number of deaths caused by COVID-19 in England and Wales is ‘only’ around 17,000 people.  The claim is based on ONS data on the number of coronavirus deaths where no other health conditions were noted on the death certificate. However, as James Tucker [ONS head of health and life events analysis] explains, to suggest that figure represents the real extent of deaths from the virus is both factually incorrect and highly misleading."

Sadly, like all fake news, the damage is done because people will have seen and believed the original story but won't see the rebuttal.

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #407 on: January 28, 2022, 06:09:49 PM »
A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, with no other co-morbidities, "from" covid as opposed to "With" it. The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 ...

It's a bit late, but ONS have issued a comment about that use of their data:
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2022/01/26/to-say-only-17000-people-have-died-from-covid-19-is-highly-misleading/
Summary:
"It’s being claimed that the true number of deaths caused by COVID-19 in England and Wales is ‘only’ around 17,000 people.  The claim is based on ONS data on the number of coronavirus deaths where no other health conditions were noted on the death certificate. However, as James Tucker [ONS head of health and life events analysis] explains, to suggest that figure represents the real extent of deaths from the virus is both factually incorrect and highly misleading."

Sadly, like all fake news, the damage is done because people will have seen and believed the original story but won't see the rebuttal.

That was the number of healthy people where covid was 'the only' cause of death on the death certificate - the ONS cannot refute that...  All the other deaths had co-morbidities.  I guess the ONS was too truthful and have come under pressure from 'various people' to retract their first honest figure.

Seems anything certain people do not like is easily labelled 'fake news' where others see the whole reaction to covid as misguided and a massive over-reaction, not really fake news, just really bad judgement.  I know that hindsight is 20/20 but the whole SAGE forecast thisk is so bad that a blind man on a galloping horse could see how 'over the top' it was - and the shocking thing is that even now, even people who have had and recovered from Covid are being advised to 'get boosted',  seems that Department of health has seen the light though,  they are advising Sajid Javid to drop the whole 'no jab-no job' thing, which could cause massive problems with NHS staffing ( as it has already done in Care sector ), and accept that having covid antibodies from previous infection is actually better than a jab from a vaccine of dubious safety and efficacy, and it looks as though a backdoor climbdown will happen, without any big publicity.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2022, 06:17:45 PM by culzean »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #408 on: January 28, 2022, 08:40:36 PM »
A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, with no other co-morbidities, "from" covid as opposed to "With" it. The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 ...

It's a bit late, but ONS have issued a comment about that use of their data:
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2022/01/26/to-say-only-17000-people-have-died-from-covid-19-is-highly-misleading/
Summary:
"It’s being claimed that the true number of deaths caused by COVID-19 in England and Wales is ‘only’ around 17,000 people.  The claim is based on ONS data on the number of coronavirus deaths where no other health conditions were noted on the death certificate. However, as James Tucker [ONS head of health and life events analysis] explains, to suggest that figure represents the real extent of deaths from the virus is both factually incorrect and highly misleading."

Sadly, like all fake news, the damage is done because people will have seen and believed the original story but won't see the rebuttal.

Yes.
Unfortunately the damage has been done and most people will only see the versions reported in the right wing press and internet misrepresentations
This was debunked by Emma Monk in this article.
https://westcountryvoices.co.uk/debunking-the-claim-that-only-17-371-people-have-died-of-covid-in-the-uk/

And again in this afternoon's Indie Sage meeting. From about 33 minutes.


but few people will see these.
I haven't had time to watch all of Indie Sage yet.
Will hopefully post more later.

Edit added screenshot
Edit added Indy Sage slides (pdf)
https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/DR-Presentation.pptx


« Last Edit: January 29, 2022, 04:21:00 PM by JimSh »

ColinB

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #409 on: January 28, 2022, 11:42:35 PM »
Seems anything certain people do not like is easily labelled 'fake news' where others see the whole reaction to covid as misguided and a massive over-reaction ...

If, by "certain people", you mean me, then you misunderstand. I do not regard anything I disagree with as "fake news", I will change my mind if presented with a convincing argument. But I will call out information that is not soundly based or doesn't stand up to scrutiny, because that is simply misleading. We can't have an intelligent discussion - which is what I hope we can have here - based on misleading or incorrect facts.

In this case, selectively using a subset of data as evidence that the covid death rate has been massively over-quoted  is simply not correct. You said:
A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, ... "from" covid ... The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 ...  About 10% of the claimed deaths 'from' covid which had been used by the government and SAGE to justify draconian restrictions and lockdowns, wrecking the economy in the process, plunging the country into depression and increasing the National Debt by over £800 billion to £2.3 trillion
ONS have clarified what their data means, and reiterated that the excess death toll (ie the number of people who have passed away due to covid) is far greater. We can discuss whether the economic effects you mention were an over-reaction to the pandemic (was it a price too high to pay?). But the best estimate of the number of deaths due to covid can only be provided by the excess mortality rate, and that is a quantifiable number.

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #410 on: January 29, 2022, 10:05:05 AM »
It is pure speculation to guess how much 'life' remaining the already aged and very sick people who were the vast majority of 'with covid' deaths (as compared to 'from covid' ) - The facts are that over 75% were >85 with multiple co-morbidities,  and 95% were  over 60 likewise.  This has to be balanced against other damages done by lockdowns to other peoples health, the economy and the future deaths caused by lack of medical care and diagnosis during last 22 months, which is unquantifiable.  Excess deaths proves nothing except that by and large many of UK population are unhealthy, and as WHO said in March 2020 'are the very people this virus will target',  bravo to NHS for keeping very chronically sick people alive for longer, but those people are never going to do well when a new disease shows up.  Diabetes is also endemic in UK,  much ( but not all ) of it caused by obesity and unhealthy eating, that diabetes is so prevalent in UK, is a major drain on the NHS, is to a great degree preventable and was one of the major co-morbidities of a covid death is a national scandal.
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #411 on: January 29, 2022, 10:46:08 AM »
You keep on repeating yourself.

Changing the record.
Good on Joni Mitchell for joining Neil Young in protest at Joe Rogan for spouting this sort of misinformation on Spotify.
Unfortunately at the moment unless it becomes a mass movement the only people to lose out will be Young and Mitchell financially and old farts like me who might want to listen to Neil Young and Joni Mitchell.

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #412 on: January 29, 2022, 12:29:40 PM »
Extract from an article on the efficacy of lockdowns on death rates in UK,  England dropped most restrictions while Wales, NI and Scotland kept restrictions in place.

But what we can do is to compare Covid death rates in England, where most restrictions were lifted on 19 July until Plan B came in last month, with death rates in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, where tougher restrictions outlasted those in England. In Scotland, the mask mandate was never lifted. Vaccine passports for large venues were introduced in the country on 1 October last year, in Wales on 11 October and in Northern Ireland on 29 November. On work-from-home guidance (reintroduced last month), Wales was militant — it became a criminal offence to go to work if you could feasibly do your job at home. Northern Ireland retained restrictions on the number of people who could meet indoors.

And the results? Since 19 July, England has had 21,098 Covid deaths — a rate of 37.3 per 100,000 people. Wales had 1,195, a rate of 37.7, Scotland had 2,422, a rate of 44.3 and Northern Ireland had 914, a rate of 48.2.


Here is link to article - behind a paywall but try it..

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/did-plan-b-work-
Oops missed this one.
Again you are conflating "lockdowns"  with "restrictions" or even "precautions"
The prevalence of covid and hence the highest death rate has moved around the UK. Sometimes highest in London, sometimes higher in other regions of England, sometimes higher in Scotland Wales or NI.
Perhaps your Spectator article writer (Ross Clark again) has selectively chosen a period when prevalence was higher in Scotland and Wales than England.
I don't know where he got his figures for the period quoted ( I could only find total deaths up to the present date) but  if you take the pandemic as a whole there have been until today according to official figures
134875 deaths in England,  10275 deaths in Scotland, 6804 in Wales and3100 in NI 
Taking the populations as 56.55 million for England 5.4 million in Scotland, 3.1million for Wales and 1.8 million for NI  gives figures of
2400 per million for England  1900 per million for Scotland 2160 per million for Wales and 1720 per million for NI.

(If anyone can find the number of deaths in the four countries up to the 19th of July, we could check Mr Clark's figures)

Most of the policy has been dictated by the UK government which controls the money.
The devolved governments could only deviate slightly.

What is worse is  comparing the UK death rate per million with other countries on worldometer.
Given the advantages the UK has had with the vaccination programme the UK has not fared well.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Edit changed link
Edit added bit in brackets.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2022, 11:15:42 PM by JimSh »

Bazzzer

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #413 on: January 30, 2022, 09:58:15 AM »
(If anyone can find the number of deaths in the four countries up to the 19th of July, we could check Mr Clark's figures)

Can be found here https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom

« Last Edit: January 30, 2022, 10:34:03 AM by Bazzzer »

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #414 on: January 30, 2022, 12:15:05 PM »
Thanks.
Using these figures with the figures with the ones I quoted the other day gives the following:-
Deaths since July 19th
England 134875-113442 = 21433
Scotland 10275-7897=2378
Wales 6804 -5594 = 1210
NI 3100-2164 =936

Dividing by the respective populations gives figures of England 379per million, Scotland 440per million, Wales 390per million and NI 520 per million.
Which given the discrepancies of a few days and different methods of counting deaths is in the same ballpark as the figures quoted by Ross Clark.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2022, 12:27:44 PM by JimSh »

madasafish

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #415 on: January 30, 2022, 01:23:09 PM »
Thanks.
Using these figures with the figures with the ones I quoted the other day gives the following:-
Deaths since July 19th
England 134875-113442 = 21433
Scotland 10275-7897=2378
Wales 6804 -5594 = 1210
NI 3100-2164 =936

Dividing by the respective populations gives figures of England 379per million, Scotland 440per million, Wales 390per million and NI 520 per million.
Which given the discrepancies of a few days and different methods of counting deaths is in the same ballpark as the figures quoted by Ross Clark.

Which basically says:
either the population of England were healthier than the other countries
or
the measures taken in England were more effective
or a combination of both.

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #416 on: January 30, 2022, 05:34:06 PM »
Or there was some other reason.
Eg. There was a Rangers Celtic match on the 29th of August and there was Cop 26 in November and the Steps concert at the end of November or maybe the colder weather and earlier onset of darker nights meant people were driven inside earlier.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2022, 05:38:01 PM by JimSh »

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #417 on: January 30, 2022, 06:32:19 PM »
You keep on repeating yourself.

Pot and kettle ?  Good facts bear repeating many times.
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

culzean

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #418 on: January 31, 2022, 02:31:21 PM »
Seems Sajid Javid is about to drop the 'no jab- no job' mandate for NHS workers,  it is one thing to call normal population 'crazy anti-vaxxers' but many of the NHS 'refusnicks ' are medical people and know about vaccines and the risks vs hazard ( vaccine vs covid ) for normally healthy people, and decided against the vaccine.

Clip from an article..

'Health Secretary Sajid Javid now looks set to drop his plans to sack unvaccinated NHS staff. It was almost inevitable given the practical difficulties that come with sacking more than 70,000 workers who showed little sign of changing their minds — all while the NHS is desperately trying to catch up with missed treatments following the pandemic.

Javid is expected to say that the far milder Omicron variant has changed his calculation: Covid is no longer a threat that would necessitate compulsory vaccination. In reality, his bluff was about to be called. NHS staff would have to be vaccinated by Thursday to be double-jabbed in time for the 1 April deadline — and there was no sign that the unvaccinated (especially those with recovery immunity) would change their minds in any significant number.
'
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

JimSh

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Re: New South African variant.
« Reply #419 on: February 01, 2022, 12:04:06 PM »
« Last Edit: February 01, 2022, 12:38:08 PM by JimSh »

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