EV Battery life.

[Nicksey]

I know there are a few of you here that have the first models out of the factory, and some with 30k plus on the clock. I was wondering if you still achieve 10 bars on the charged display?
I know the battery is guaranteed for 8 years, but was curious for how long it will achieve a full 10 bars

[John Ratsey]

Doesn't the handbook mention that the battery will periodically recalibrate itself? I expect it will apply the same 10 bar scale to whatever capacity is remaining. However, I think that the system is designed to avoid using the extremes of the potential charge range where most of the wear on the chemistry occurs. The overall size of the battery pack is large considering that the rated capacity is less than 1kWh which, I think, supports my assumption that the cells aren't worked anywhere near their limits. Add on to that the normal operating range being 3 bars to 7 bars (30 to 70%?) with occasionally going down to 2 bars or up to 10 bars then the wear should be minimal.

[Lord Voltermore]

I'm not one of the original pioneers, my car was delivered in october 2021.  I've not yet noticed any deterioration in the battery , but there again  I no longer pay as much attention to the  battery bars as I once did  . I just let the car get on with delivering its magic.

The Sanguine Voltermore  thinks that although the battery might  deteriorate to some extent in time a Hybrid will still be  a useable car. Unlike a full EV.    It might rely more on its ICE and so  petrol consumption may increase .

One of the lesser known predictions of my ancestor  Nostradamus Voltemore was that in 2035 owners of 15 year old Mk4's will be lamenting on the forum that its mpg is not as good as they were getting in the early 2020's  but its still sought after by generation X people with 'automatic only' driving licences.

[Hicardo]

I'm not noticing drop off in my June 2021 delivered MK 4 Crosstar.  In fact, I think its getting slightly better on fuel since year 2.  I see 10 bars a lot as I live in a hilly area. 

[Bristol_Crosstar]

Regarding EV battery degradation it's generally thought that the batteries only degrade about 2% each year which is a lot less than originally estimated. 

[Lord Voltermore]

Regarding EV battery degradation it's generally thought that the batteries only degrade about 2% each year which is a lot less than originally estimated.

Am I right in thinking that 2% a year means in a 10 year old Mk4 this would reveal itself as  a 20%   reduction in its fuel consumption advantage  over an ICE Jazz ?    Instead of being lets say 10mpg better it will now only be 8 mpg better because it needs to use its ICE more often .Or is it more complex than that?   

TBH   I'd still opt for the silence, torque and  ease of the hybrid system even if there were no  fuel consumption  advantage. 

[ColinB]

Am I right in thinking that 2% a year means in a 10 year old Mk4 this would reveal itself as  a 20%   reduction in its fuel consumption advantage  over an ICE Jazz ?    Instead of being lets say 10mpg better it will now only be 8 mpg better because it needs to use its ICE more often .Or is it more complex than that?   

Pedants corner: the 2%/year degradation will be compound, not simple. That is, at the end of year one, the capacity will be 98%, and in the subsequent year it will reduce by 2% of 98, and so on. At the end of year 10 it'll be down to around 82%, so slightly better than your assumption.

Second - and probably more relevant - point is that most of these "2% degradation per year" comments refer to a 2% reduction in EV range. Exactly how that relates to fuel consumption in a hybrid probably depends on a raft of other factors, not least how well the car manages the battery throughout a particular driver's usage cycle. I'd hope that Honda have done fairly well with that so the end result should be nigh-on impossible to detect.

[Bristol_Crosstar]

Am I right in thinking that 2% a year means in a 10 year old Mk4 this would reveal itself as  a 20%   reduction in its fuel consumption advantage  over an ICE Jazz ?    Instead of being lets say 10mpg better it will now only be 8 mpg better because it needs to use its ICE more often .Or is it more complex than that?   

Pedants corner: the 2%/year degradation will be compound, not simple. That is, at the end of year one, the capacity will be 98%, and in the subsequent year it will reduce by 2% of 98, and so on. At the end of year 10 it'll be down to around 82%, so slightly better than your assumption.

Second - and probably more relevant - point is that most of these "2% degradation per year" comments refer to a 2% reduction in EV range. Exactly how that relates to fuel consumption in a hybrid probably depends on a raft of other factors, not least how well the car manages the battery throughout a particular driver's usage cycle. I'd hope that Honda have done fairly well with that so the end result should be nigh-on impossible to detect.

With the Jazz the reduced capacity of the battery would only have an effect where the battery charge is nearly full, eg when going downhill for a long time. Normally the battery gets to say 50% and is then used for EV or hybrid driving in which case the reduced capacity of the battery would have no effect.

I would have thought that in ten years time the cost of petrol will be so high (and most current filling stations converted to electric) that most people will have bought an EV (the battery technology will have considerably improved the range available).

[coldstart]

I'm not noticing drop off in my June 2021 delivered MK 4 Crosstar.  In fact, I think its getting slightly better on fuel since year 2.

Might as well be owed to your adapting to the hybrid system and optimizing your driving style over time.
(happened to me with all my cars)

[Whiteshark]

Can I ask why there is a presumption, in ten years time, the cost of petrol will be so high that people will buy an EV ?

[madasafish]

Some oil companies - OPEC - are currently restricting output to bolster oil prices - make hay while the sun shines.
But as 50% of the world will depend on ICE for transport - see Africa, US, etc - mainly for decades to come, oil will still be in demand.
Oil prices WILL rise.

But anyone who thinks that electricity prices in the UK will not rise is going to be sadly mistaken. Whilst windfarms may produce cheap energy , they need connecting to heh National Grid - who say the odd £58B will be needed. Then much will be on pylons: the UK Planning System is defined to be inefficient and slow progress so expect that to double. and take decades.And then  backup power is needed.The UK's nuclear program is a shambles with no nucs on order for a decade, planning takes a decade before building starts and wind is unreliable.

As a result the UK is building more gas powered stations and more undersea links to obtain electricity from other sources.

It is a total shambles - I expect electricity prices to rise VERY sharply in the next decade.

And finally, the Government will have to recover lost Fuel Duty revenues from EVs somehow.

[Whiteshark]

I agree with much that you say, which basically expects all energy to rise, so transport costs of all types will be expected to rise. All these things have to be proportionate, for people to live and goods to move about. I therefore do not expect petrol/diesel to increase disproportionately in the future.. but then again what do we really know, the world  is awash with oil, but also restricted by refining capacity. Saudi etc. will restrict supply to keep the price stable at a price they need, at present around 80 dollars. The other consideration is gas, which again is plentiful and a fraction of the cost of electric, together with an efficient distribution system that does not need massive capital funding.
I think much that we are planning in the West is wishful thinking with unrealistic goals, while India/ China will continue their own agendas.

[Bristol_Crosstar]

I based my prediction of much higher petrol prices in ten years on two factors:

1) Governments striving for net zero past 2030 are going to reduce tax (in the UK via VAT) on electricity and at the same time increase fuel duty to persuade people to stop using ICE cars

2) Petrol stations are already closing down and/or converting to electric so that range anxiety will be the problem for ICE drivers trying to find a petrol station, and with fewer of these open they will increase prices as there will be little competition

Since the cost per mile is already less for an EV (ours is cheaper than the Crosstar at current prices), the gap will only get wider in future.

[Whiteshark]

I think that your prediction misses one essential requirement…the £60 billion or more to upgrade the electric network and complete it in time. Who will pay ? and how the hell will you physically achieve it ?
We all have our own views , which is good, but there are too many variables out there at the moment to really know, plus I am sure technology will play its part.
Interesting that our friends across the pond now recognise Toyota probably got it right in predicting a bigger longer term future for Hybrids. It probably won’t alter the future your views predict, just the timing.

[Bristol_Crosstar]

I think that your prediction misses one essential requirement…the £60 billion or more to upgrade the electric network and complete it in time. Who will pay ? and how the hell will you physically achieve it ?
We all have our own views , which is good, but there are too many variables out there at the moment to really know, plus I am sure technology will play its part.
Interesting that our friends across the pond now recognise Toyota probably got it right in predicting a bigger longer term future for Hybrids. It probably won’t alter the future your views predict, just the timing.

£60 billion isn't so much over ten years, I think that's about the same as the first phase of HS2. There will be a cost associated by NOT doing it. They are already upgrading the network, granted it will take a long time but I'm sure it will happen by the mid 2030's. Who knows, by then the scientists may have cracked nuclear fusion for generating electricity.