Author Topic: Electric cars  (Read 694632 times)

guest4871

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #750 on: February 18, 2018, 11:47:18 AM »
Plus, of course, more people would want to use them and more often.

Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #751 on: February 18, 2018, 12:26:11 PM »
I live in the city of Bath, which has a population of around 95000 (Ref 1). According to the RAC Foundation we own 526 vehicles per 1000 of population (Ref 2, latest figure I can find). So that’s 49970 vehicles. The BBC (link earlier in the thread) suggests 1/3 of those don’t have off-street charging, so that’s 16657 vehicles.
These numbers are assuming every vehicle in Bath is an EV. That won't happen for a very, very long time. Autonomous Uber style vehicles will gradually take up the slack, especially when ICE vehicles are no longer sold. And as for congestion, autonomous vehicles will supposedly run close together and at a far higher traffic density. It is going to happen, how the infrastructure copes is anyone's guess, but EVs are taking over, irrespective of your wishes, VW has announced they will be selling 20 EV models, worldwide, by 2025.

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #752 on: February 18, 2018, 02:18:03 PM »
I live in the city of Bath, which has a population of around 95000 (Ref 1). According to the RAC Foundation we own 526 vehicles per 1000 of population (Ref 2, latest figure I can find). So that’s 49970 vehicles. The BBC (link earlier in the thread) suggests 1/3 of those don’t have off-street charging, so that’s 16657 vehicles.
These numbers are assuming every vehicle in Bath is an EV. That won't happen for a very, very long time. Autonomous Uber style vehicles will gradually take up the slack, especially when ICE vehicles are no longer sold. And as for congestion, autonomous vehicles will supposedly run close together and at a far higher traffic density. It is going to happen, how the infrastructure copes is anyone's guess, but EVs are taking over, irrespective of your wishes, VW has announced they will be selling 20 EV models, worldwide, by 2025.

You have to add AV running around empty to the traffic flow and also more people becoming commuters due to commute becoming easier,  the laws of unintended consequences apply here.....
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Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #753 on: February 18, 2018, 02:32:28 PM »
I have posted this link before, but for all you AV enthusiasts, and AV naysayers, it is well worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BWJcpesr6A&t=18s

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #754 on: February 18, 2018, 03:08:38 PM »
Proper safe AV will be so expensive with LIDAR and all the other crap fitted that no-one will be able to afford them.  I guess just like aircraft if there is an accident that is fault of auto-system all similar cars will be 'grounded' until it is sorted.  Add this to hackers playing grand theft auto with real cars and who knows where it will end..
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Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #755 on: February 18, 2018, 03:34:08 PM »
LIDAR is getting cheaper by the day. Solid state LIDAR will be fitted to AVs of the future.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/01/driving-around-without-a-driver-lidar-technology-explained/

ColinB

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #756 on: February 18, 2018, 05:57:47 PM »
I live in the city of Bath, which has a population of around 95000 (Ref 1). According to the RAC Foundation we own 526 vehicles per 1000 of population (Ref 2, latest figure I can find). So that’s 49970 vehicles. The BBC (link earlier in the thread) suggests 1/3 of those don’t have off-street charging, so that’s 16657 vehicles.
These numbers are assuming every vehicle in Bath is an EV...
That’s true, but you were the one suggesting that auto-Uber’s would take over when 1/3 of current car owners have to give up their wheels because they can no longer charge them. So I’m looking at the end point of that process. I used a fudge factor of 20%, you’re welcome to use something else, but however you cut it you end up with needing a very large fleet of auto-Uber’s and an unfeasibly large charging depot somewhere ... which was the whole point of looking at some numbers. That depot can’t be built in the city centre (there’s no room, land is too expensive), it has to be out of town in the areas where - surprise, surprise - the houses have off road parking/charging so those folks will be very vocal about having this facility plonked on them. So I don’t see how this concept of having a big fleet that quietly goes off to <somewhere tbd> when it’s not needed can possibly be viable. I’d love to be proved wrong, but I just don’t see it.

Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #757 on: February 18, 2018, 06:12:20 PM »
Might I suggest one of the many industrial estates would fill the bill. There are dozens of them round here. And what about all the inner city brownfield sites (maybe not Bath, but most other places have them).

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #758 on: February 18, 2018, 06:26:12 PM »
LIDAR is getting cheaper by the day. Solid state LIDAR will be fitted to AVs of the future.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/01/driving-around-without-a-driver-lidar-technology-explained/

Problem with LIDAR is it is rendered fairly useless by rain, fog or snow as too many false reflections.  Another problem is the power of the laser, even  0.25watt lasers carry a warning not to look into them and LIDAR needs more power than it presently has if range is going to be improved (at present LIDAR is not suitable for speeds over 50mph because of range issues) higher power lasers will be illegal due to damage to human eyes.

Radar is better in rain, fog and snow but still has issues, and has low resolution. 

A lot of this stuff is still in 'tomorrows world' territory and the last 2% of AV  is going to be much harder than the first 98%.   Us humans are awesome if only we can be trusted to pay attention.
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richardfrost

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #760 on: February 19, 2018, 02:35:15 PM »
The thing is, you can't solve tomorrow's problems with today's thinking. For example...

  • - we are assuming that batteries will persist and fuel cells won't become feasible
  • - that large numbers will still want to own a car, even if half the other cars might be self driving
  • - that we will all travel to work like we do now
  • - what if pourable battery fuel, or hot swap batteries, could be incorporated into future designs
  • - what if virtual reality reaches a point where travel, except for tourism and visiting relatives, will become an anachronism

I could go on. As fun as this conversation is, it is today's thinking projected 20-40 years out. 40 years ago the number of cars on the road, and miles driven, was a fraction what it is now. 40 years befoore that, car ownership was a kind of luxury, and 40 years before that, cars were powered by steam.

guest4871

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #761 on: February 19, 2018, 03:13:51 PM »
40 years before that, cars were powered by steam.

.....and (120 years ago) most other forms of transport were fully bio degradeable or powered by wind.....

culzean

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #762 on: February 19, 2018, 04:20:34 PM »
The thing is, you can't solve tomorrow's problems with today's thinking. For example...

  • - we are assuming that batteries will persist and fuel cells won't become feasible
  • - that large numbers will still want to own a car, even if half the other cars might be self driving
  • - that we will all travel to work like we do now
  • - what if pourable battery fuel, or hot swap batteries, could be incorporated into future designs
  • - what if virtual reality reaches a point where travel, except for tourism and visiting relatives, will become an anachronism

I could go on. As fun as this conversation is, it is today's thinking projected 20-40 years out. 40 years ago the number of cars on the road, and miles driven, was a fraction what it is now. 40 years befoore that, car ownership was a kind of luxury, and 40 years before that, cars were powered by steam.

It was widely touted when internet started that there would be a lot of people who need not turn up for work every day and traffic jams would be history.  The reality is that pretty much everyone still goes to work and traffic has been made much worse by people buying most things on the internet and courier vans making up probably 30% of traffic. 

Air and a lot of business travel was to be made history by video conferencing - air and business travel has increased exponentially. 

As for people not wanting to own a car - we will have to wait and see,  learning to drive and getting a car was a rite of passage for young people and gave independence to go anywhere at anytime,  don't know it that is changing due to high insurance costs,  but I would guess the majority of people will still want personal transport.

Fuel cells still better than batteries if you can find a cheap source of hydrogen (or maybe a methane fuel cell).

Getting car makers to standardize on batteries is like trying to herd cats if not harder.

We relied on wind for powering ships up until just over 100 years ago and voyages were long with disease and shipwreck taking many lives - all that was in the past when we could harness steam and diesel, everything became much more safe, much faster and reliable and goods became cheaper - now we are trying to use wind power again,  we never learn...........
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ColinB

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #763 on: February 19, 2018, 08:31:32 PM »
As for people not wanting to own a car - we will have to wait and see ...  but I would guess the majority of people will still want personal transport.
Alternatives to personal transport ownership have existed for over 150 years. First the Hansom Cab, through taxis , minicabs, rental cars, Car Clubs, and latterly Uber. Autonomous Uber’s are merely the future incarnation of that with the human replaced by a robot. They all have their role to fill but yet a large majority of people have preferred the comfort, convenience and flexibility of owning their own. I don’t see that desire changing anytime soon. The difference, as we move towards 2040, is that many people will be forced to give up their wheels because they don’t have anywhere to charge an EV. Joe Public probably won’t like that when he realises it’s going to become much more difficult to travel for work or leisure.

Fuel cells still better than batteries if you can find a cheap source of hydrogen (or maybe a methane fuel cell).
Personally, I agree. H2 has its problems, but it is more flexible for the end user because it doesn’t have the charging or range issues of a pure EV or the local pollution issues of a petrol or diesel hybrid. What if the money going into battery development went into building H2 filling stations, and we invested the kind of dosh that currently goes towards building oil refineries into large-scale electrolysis plants instead ? You could even conceive of having a home electrolyser in the garage (if you have one) powered by your solar panels if you wanted. Fantasy mode <off> !

Jocko

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #764 on: February 19, 2018, 08:54:21 PM »
As for people not wanting to own a car - we will have to wait and see,  learning to drive and getting a car was a rite of passage for young people and gave independence to go anywhere at anytime,  don't know it that is changing due to high insurance costs,  but I would guess the majority of people will still want personal transport.
I have two grandsons who have no inclination to learn to drive or own a car. My daughter and her husband offered to buy their provisional, pay for lessons and their test, and both declined They like partying and prefer to bus out and taxi back. Perhaps in the future they may change their minds, especially when marriage and kids come along, but I had my licence for my 17th birthday and had been driving on a local disused airfield for a couple of years before that!
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They all have their role to fill but yet a large majority of people have preferred the comfort, convenience and flexibility of owning their own. I don’t see that desire changing anytime soon.
The single biggest thing may well be cost. If autonomous ride sharing is cheap enough (they reckon it can be done cheaper than current subsidised bus fares) then people may be happy to change. Only time will tell. Personally I like having my own car, but the future may well change even my opinion.

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