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Other Hondas & General Topics => Off Topic (Non-Honda) => Topic started by: Jocko on November 25, 2021, 08:16:07 PM
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Scientists are bricking themselves over a new variant of Covid which is circulating in one South African province. The variant is called B.1.1.529 and doesn't have a Latin descriptor at present. It has 50 mutations overall and more than 30 on the spike protein. Looks like it might have enhanced transmissibility and might also be able to get around parts of the immune system. I wonder how long it will take for the UK government to respond this time.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418127 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418127)
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If it did have a Latin descriptor, I'm sure Mr Johnson would ipso facto take more notice of it, as all the previous ones have had Greek letter descriptors.
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Apparently red list is being reinstated for some African countries.
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Yep they've moved fast on this one. Perfect timing. My eldest son's partner has flights booked to South Africa for Christmas. Not been home for two years. Looks like he won't be going this time too.
Just wish they'd acted this fast last year instead of allowing flights to and from everywhere for ages. Let's hope they can nip this one in the bud before it creates even more chaos.
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Yes . This time they have moved fast. Red list from tomorrow lunch time and those already on flights quarantined on arrival.
This is what they should have done first time round.(and with the Indian (Delta) variant)
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/south-africa-red-list-covid-variant-b1964518.html
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The mutation on the spike protein is the worrying thing, as that will reduce the effectiveness of current vaccines against it.
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This virus is not going away anytime soon.
This new variant and the Anti-Vax brigade hopefully won't overwhelm the NHS again
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This one is truly worrying. It has the potential of tearing up the rule book altogether. Just when we were beginning to get a little complacent ............
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Great to see the government acting as they did and my stupidity, it is Greek (which I knew) and not Latin (which I wrote).
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Great to see the government acting as they did
Mibbes aye, mibbes naw....
Yes . This time they have moved fast. Red list from tomorrow lunch time and those already on flights quarantined on arrival.
This is what they should have done first time round.(and with the Indian (Delta) variant)
Apparently at least the second part didn't happen
https://twitter.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/1464150235714932742
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:As the new variant has been found in Brussels, I assume it will be EU wide by now.
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Today's Indie Sage.
Discussion of South African variant begins about 12min 40s and then later during questions from the press and public beginning around 48min 10s
it is Greek (which I knew) and not Latin (which I wrote).
Seems it didn't stay "nu" for long.
Now it's "omicron."
:As the new variant has been found in Brussels, I assume it will be EU wide by now.
Latest update
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/26/omicron-covid-variant-spreads-europe
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The mendacity and greed of big pharma ( yes I mean you Pfizer with your overpriced products ) never ceases to amaze me. There is an existing anti-viral drug available for £0.05 per dose and Pfizer come up with a much less effective one for an eye watering £340 per dose... the difference is that Ivermectin is out of patent ( so not much money to be made ) but Pfizer have dreamed up a similar but less broadly acting one that they can patent and make huge profits out of gullible governments for the next 20 years. Would not surprise me to find out that Pfizer were funding Wuhan lab to make a virus that they were already working on a vaccine for - loadsa money.....
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Why did WHO skip from Nu to Omicron, missing out Xi - Oh yes mustn't upset the Chinese :o
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Two cases now detected in the UK
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Two cases now detected in the UK
Stable door and bolting horses spring to mind.....
Looks like another lockdown, just in time for Christmas.
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Boris briefing at 17:00
At the very least they should mandate masks in all public enclosed places.
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The mendacity and greed of big pharma ( yes I mean you Pfizer with your overpriced products ) never ceases to amaze me. There is an existing anti-viral drug available for £0.05 per dose and Pfizer come up with a much less effective one for an eye watering £340 per dose... the difference is that Ivermectin is out of patent ( so not much money to be made ) but Pfizer have dreamed up a similar but less broadly acting one that they can patent and make huge profits out of gullible governments for the next 20 years. Would not surprise me to find out that Pfizer were funding Wuhan lab to make a virus that they were already working on a vaccine for - loadsa money.....
Beware cheap untested wonder cure promoted by right wing organisations.
Ivermectin is an antiparasitic medication.[6][7] Parasitic infestations in humans include head lice, scabies, river blindness (onchocerciasis), strongyloidiasis, trichuriasis, ascariasis, and lymphatic filariasis.[6][8][9][10] In veterinary medicine, the medication is used to prevent and treat heartworm and acariasis, among other indications.[9] Ivermectin works through many mechanisms of action that result in the death of the targeted parasites;[6] it can be taken by mouth or applied to the skin for external infestations.[6][11]
During the COVID-19 pandemic, misinformation has been widely spread claiming that ivermectin is beneficial for treating and preventing COVID-19.[20][21] Such claims are not backed by credible scientific evidence.[22][23] Research into its use is ongoing, and multiple major health organizations, including the Food and Drug Administration, U.S. Centers for Disease Control, the European Medicines Agency, and the World Health Organization have stated that ivermectin is not authorized or approved to treat COVID-19.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivermectin
The preprint endorsing ivermectin as a coronavirus therapy has been widely cited, but independent researchers find glaring discrepancies in the data
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/16/huge-study-supporting-ivermectin-as-covid-treatment-withdrawn-over-ethical-concerns
The health authorities in the US, UK and EU have found there is insufficient evidence for using the drug against Covid, but thousands of supporters, many of them anti-vaccine activists, have continued to vigorously campaign for its use.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58170809
I must admit I didn't watch all the video or understand much of what I watched but I found the demonstration with scissors and sellotape unconvincing.
The structures of the two drugs he was comparing were completely different and just because the two structures had functional groups in common did not mean that the drugs would have the same effect.
What other effects might the other parts of the structures have?
Edit Just spent the last half hour watching his next video on checking the fact checkers and I'm still not convinced
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Dr+John+Campbell+alternative+facts&docid=608042634855844385&mid=0194B934436EF32BB6510194B934436EF32BB651&view=detail&FORM=VIRE
There's a lot of damage been done by people taking ivermectin (particularly in animal doses)
https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer-updates/why-you-should-not-use-ivermectin-treat-or-prevent-covid-19
Clinical trials are necessary
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AZ vaccine was demonised in an orchestrated smear campaign ( despite similar or worse side effects in other vaccines, which were not widely published, maybe money changes hands ? ) because it was 'too cheap' - this meant it was affecting the market share and hence the bottom line of people like Pfizer. The same will happen with Ivermectin, studies in Israel last year ( double blind trials ) showed that Ivermectin was effective in reducing severity and length of symptoms, and maybe just as importantly reducing the ability of patients to infect others.....
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England is “nowhere near” introducing tougher Covid restrictions, Sajid Javid says, despite the return of mask-wearing and PCR tests for travellers.
The health secretary rejected stricter curbs – such as social distancing, or a working from home rule – arguing they “carry a very heavy price” and are not necessary now, despite the arrival of the Omicron variant.
What's so f******* heavy about social distancing, more mask wearing and working from home where possible except that it sounds like Plan B.
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I agree Jim. The government seems to be hell bent on trying to please the populous by pussy footing around the periphery while other countries are closing their borders. Will they never learn? We have worn masks and social distanced throughout the pandemic and we haven't yet grown two heads.
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The same will happen with Ivermectin, studies in Israel last year ( double blind trials ) showed that Ivermectin was effective in reducing severity and length of symptoms, and maybe just as importantly reducing the ability of patients to infect others.....
https://www.newsweek.com/ivermectin-covid-treatment-study-flawed-scientists-1627109
At least Israel has now closed all its borders.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59448547?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA
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The same will happen with Ivermectin, studies in Israel last year ( double blind trials ) showed that Ivermectin was effective in reducing severity and length of symptoms, and maybe just as importantly reducing the ability of patients to infect others.....
https://www.newsweek.com/ivermectin-covid-treatment-study-flawed-scientists-1627109
Yup, all the hallmarks of a media smear campaign similar to the one against AZ vaccine... Never underestimate the aggressive reaction of big pharma to anything that may affect their profits. Pfizer has been fined more than any other pharma company for dodgy trials and releasing dangerous drugs onto the market, fines are in the multi-billion dollar area.
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It would be great if it did work but more trials are necessary and it should not be seen as a substitute for vaccination.
Despite claims of a conspiracy against ivermectin, Griffin points out that researchers are continuing to study it and other repurposed drugs for COVID. There are at-home randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials underway, including the COVID-OUT trial, the ACTIV-6 study and the U.K.-based PRINCIPLE trial.
“I would love for ivermectin to work. Just prove it,” Forman says. But even if we have an effective treatment for a disease, that does not negate the need for a vaccine, Larson says. “We need all the tools in the toolbox,” she adds.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fringe-doctors-groups-promote-ivermectin-for-covid-despite-a-lack-of-evidence/
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Seeing a lot of reports that the Omicron variant symptoms are different but much less severe then its preceding variants, following the trend that viruses get less virulent over time..
https://nypost.com/2021/11/27/omicron-variant-symptoms-unusual-but-mild-says-south-african-doctor/
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Let's hope so but in the meantime there should be no let up in precautions.
Oh dear. :o >:(
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-omicron-variant-live-masks-vaccine-latest-b1965456.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/covid-omicron-variant-boris-johnson-rules-b1965540.html
Edit added second link
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Seeing a lot of reports that the Omicron variant symptoms are different but much less severe then its preceding variants
I saw the SA GP talking about that this morning. It may be a godsend. If it is as mild as she said, and if it is so transmissible as they reckon, it may displace the Delta variant and allow us to get back to some sort of normality.
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Then again, it might not be.
Until the scientists find out it is best to be prepared for the worst. Not just cross fingers and hope for the best.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/27/boris-johnson-ignored-my-plan-to-tackle-deadly-covid-variants-senior-official
That's another new case btw.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/omicron-covid-cases-uk-latest-b1965601.html
I wonder how nany more have just walked into or through UK airports since Friday.
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Then again, it might not be.
Until the scientists find out it is best to be prepared for the worst. Not just cross fingers and hope for the best.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/27/boris-johnson-ignored-my-plan-to-tackle-deadly-covid-variants-senior-official
That's another new case btw.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/omicron-covid-cases-uk-latest-b1965601.html
I wonder how nany more have just walked into or through UK airports since Friday.
'Always look on the bright side of life'........
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Ba's on the slates noo in Essex
"Essex church-goers and KFC workers told to get PCRs amid omicron concerns
Members of a church congregation plus staff, customers and delivery workers at a KFC outlet are being told to get a PCR test for the omicron variant after it was detected in Brentwood.
Essex County Council said the targeted testing affects anyone who visited the KFC in Brentwood High Street on 19 November, between 1pm and 5pm.
The authority said it also affects people who attended Trinity Church in Pilgrims Hatch on 21 November."
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If the reports are correct then the person of interest arrived here 10 days ago so this new variant may be spreading already.
In other news the SA president says he wants the travel bans lifted !!!
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If the reports are correct then the person of interest arrived here 10 days ago so this new variant may be spreading already.
In other news the SA president says he wants the travel bans lifted !!!
The tourist trade will be ruined.
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Six cases identified in Scotland.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/nov/29/covid-live-news-omicron-variant-detected-in-canada-as-fauci-warns-two-weeks-needed-to-study-new-strain
What is worse is some of them have no travel history indicating that there is already community transmission.
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Nicola Sturgeon's update
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Guardin+video+nicola+sturgeon&docid=20688978291254&mid=4BEFA8AA46593BAAE8B44BEFA8AA46593BAAE8B4&view=detail&FORM=VIRE
https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/health/omicron-scotland-live-nicola-sturgeon-coronavirus-update-6-cases-of-omicron-variant-in-scotland-3474838?page=2#liveblog
Edit Changed link to first video
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It is positive advantage in the arms race for the survival and spread of a virus for the variants to get weaker ( not to kill their hosts ) but more transmissable...
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I'm afraid that is not always the case. There are still plenty of hosts out there.
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I'm afraid that is not always the case. There are still plenty of hosts out there.
Yeah, but nature is not stupid, if a virus kills its host it does not get the chance to spread very far.... a living host moves around a lot more than a dead one ( which seems a reasonable assumption ), mixing with more hosts who can pass the virus on -- that is why after a while the more spreadable ( like butter ) but less virulent virus strains start to dominate, and being infected with a similar but less deadly strain gives good immunity to hosts.
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I’m new to this Forum and I’ve just logged in a few minutes ago, to be honest I can’t believe what I’m reading here, Jesus H Christ the Government have really got people brainwashed haven’t they. Right from the start the whole thing has been a complete fiasco, surly you don’t believe all this clap trap do you.
Never believe what you hear, and only believe half of what you see, and stop complying to the Government’s depopulation agenda into misery and poverty.
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I'm afraid that is not always the case. There are still plenty of hosts out there.
Yeah, but nature is not stupid, if a virus kills its host it does not get the chance to spread very far.... a living host moves around a lot more than a dead one ( which seems a reasonable assumption ), mixing with more hosts who can pass the virus on -- that is why after a while the more spreadable ( like butter ) but less virulent virus strains start to dominate, and being infected with a similar but less deadly strain gives good immunity to hosts.
The virus is neither stupid or intelligent.
It is unthinking, just wants to reproduce and is subject to random changes some of which may make it more/less transmissible and some of which may make it more/less lethal.
Humans on the other hand are supposed to have intelligence.
Until scientists know more about this variant it is sensible to limit transmission by getting vaccinated, limiting travel, and limiting social contact.
While there are unvaccinated people either by choice or through unavaliability of vaccines the virus has scope to reproduce and mutate.
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Until scientists know more about this variant it is sensible to limit transmission by getting vaccinated, limiting travel, and limiting social contact.
While there are unvaccinated people either by choice or through unavaliability of vaccines the virus has scope to reproduce and mutate.
I agree, I just can't fathom why others don't see it that way.
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I’m new to this Forum and I’ve just logged in a few minutes ago, to be honest I can’t believe what I’m reading here, Jesus H Christ the Government have really got people brainwashed haven’t they. Right from the start the whole thing has been a complete fiasco, surly you don’t believe all this clap trap do you.
Never believe what you hear, and only believe half of what you see, and stop complying to the Government’s depopulation agenda into misery and poverty.
You're going to fit right in! ;D
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I’m new to this Forum and I’ve just logged in a few minutes ago, to be honest I can’t believe what I’m reading here, Jesus H Christ the Government have really got people brainwashed haven’t they. Right from the start the whole thing has been a complete fiasco, surly you don’t believe all this clap trap do you.
Never believe what you hear, and only believe half of what you see, and stop complying to the Government’s depopulation agenda into misery and poverty.
You're going to fit right in! ;D
Us nutters have got to stick together...until Covid strikes. :o
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(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211129/fe7137c4b478c003dad07056f93c8b10.jpg)
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The Downing Street press conference on booster vaccines is on just now.
Van Tam Wei Sheng Lim and Raine.
Push on Boosters
Refreshing good sense without politicians.
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(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211129/fe7137c4b478c003dad07056f93c8b10.jpg)
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Also Moronic
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(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211129/fe7137c4b478c003dad07056f93c8b10.jpg)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Also Moronic
I know my eyes are failing but the "B" in Crimbo " is not present in "Moronic" :P
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Sorry Omicron is an anagram of moronic
BTW Javid is now on from HOC trying to make it sound as if they are not backtracking.
It must be getting serious . Most of the guys behind him are wearing masks now.
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Until scientists know more about this variant it is sensible to limit transmission by getting vaccinated, limiting travel, and limiting social contact.
While there are unvaccinated people either by choice or through unavaliability of vaccines the virus has scope to reproduce and mutate.
I agree, I just can't fathom why others don't see it that way.
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-08-19/double-jabbed-may-spread-covid-as-much-as-the-unvaccinated
Seems that the virus is likely to mutate more if a vaccinated person gets covid, and vaccination does not stop them spreading it. Many experts ( not the tame government ones ) advise not to vaccinate during a pandemic as it can actually speed up the rate of mutation of the virus. Vaccination may have flattened the curve and saved the NHS, but by flattening the curve it has also spread the curve out for longer and allowed more mutations to emerge, which in the natural course of things should have been more infectious and milder, but once vaccines get involved all bets are off.
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(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211129/fe7137c4b478c003dad07056f93c8b10.jpg)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Also Moronic
I know my eyes are failing but the "B" in Crimbo " is not present in "Moronic" :P
My apologies for the spelling error (Omricon not Omicron) in the picture, whoever created it might be tech savvy but couldn't spell.
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https://www.itv.com/news/2021-08-19/double-jabbed-may-spread-covid-as-much-as-the-unvaccinated
Seems that the virus is likely to mutate more if a vaccinated person gets covid, and vaccination does not stop them spreading it. Many experts ( not the tame government ones ) advise not to vaccinate during a pandemic as it can actually speed up the rate of mutation of the virus. Vaccination may have flattened the curve and saved the NHS, but by flattening the curve it has also spread the curve out for longer and allowed more mutations to emerge, which in the natural course of things should have been more infectious and milder, but once vaccines get involved all bets are off.
Where are you getting this stuff?
It's not what it's saying in the article you've linked to which is warning that you can still spread the virus even if you are double vaccinated - which is why you should still be taking precautions so that you do not unwittingly spread the virus.
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My apologies for the spelling error (Omricon not Omicron) in the picture, whoever created it might be tech savvy but couldn't spell.
Maybe they have sexydial. ::)
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One of mankind's greatest achievements (and perhaps its biggest folly) is the invention of the Internet. Now, everyone is a virus expert, either being in favour of vaccination or against.
Without the Internet, we would surely have seen greater trust in government and virologists and a higher vaccination rate (at least in Western Europe and the States).
IHMO, a mutation of opinions online has been just as destructive as each variant of the virus itself.
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Vaccination may have flattened the curve and saved the NHS, but by flattening the curve it has also spread the curve out for longer and allowed more mutations to emerge, which in the natural course of things should have been more infectious and more deadly, but once vaccines get involved all bets are off.
There. I've fixed it for you.
I know the later mutations would become less harmful, but without the vaccine at all, deaths due to Covid would have been unimaginable. That is the original, much discredited and highly fatal 'herd immunity' plan.
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Vaccination may have flattened the curve and saved the NHS, but by flattening the curve it has also spread the curve out for longer and allowed more mutations to emerge, which in the natural course of things should have been more infectious and more deadly, but once vaccines get involved all bets are off.
There. I've fixed it for you.
I know the later mutations would become less harmful, but without the vaccine at all, deaths due to Covid would have been unimaginable. That is the original, much discredited and highly fatal 'herd immunity' plan.
Vast majority of people who get covid do not die, its fatality rate is just a bit more than influenza. Nine people in our family have had covid, most of them older than me >70 and they are fine ( because they are not obese and are in pretty good health ). Remember 95% of covid fatalities are over 60 with 2 OR MORE pre-existing serious health conditions... ( things that could, on their own result in their death at any time ). A major cause of covid deaths is obesity... which there is a lot of in UK
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One of mankind's greatest achievements (and perhaps its biggest folly) is the invention of the Internet. Now, everyone is a virus expert, either being in favour of vaccination or against.
Without the Internet, we would surely have seen greater trust in government and virologists and a higher vaccination rate (at least in Western Europe and the States).
IHMO, a mutation of opinions online has been just as destructive as each variant of the virus itself.
The internet has stopped governments hiding things, like they used to do when they controlled the media... Guess why China does not like the internet ?
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One of mankind's greatest achievements (and perhaps its biggest folly) is the invention of the Internet. Now, everyone is a virus expert, either being in favour of vaccination or against.
Without the Internet, we would surely have seen greater trust in government and virologists and a higher vaccination rate (at least in Western Europe and the States).
IHMO, a mutation of opinions online has been just as destructive as each variant of the virus itself.
The internet has stopped governments hiding things, like they used to do when they controlled the media..
That's the funniest thing I've read in a long time. Thanks!
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https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/
vaccinated people infected with the delta variant are 63 per cent less likely to infect people who are unvaccinated... the full effect of vaccines on reducing transmission is even higher than 63 per cent, because most vaccinated people don’t become infected in the first place... vaccines reduce transmission by more than 80 per cent overall
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https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/
vaccinated people infected with the delta variant are 63 per cent less likely to infect people who are unvaccinated... the full effect of vaccines on reducing transmission is even higher than 63 per cent, because most vaccinated people don’t become infected in the first place... vaccines reduce transmission by more than 80 per cent overall
That depends which studies you read about, some studies also say wearing masks reduces transmission, but the virus is so very, very tiny compared to the holes in mask material that it will not stop them...
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https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/
vaccinated people infected with the delta variant are 63 per cent less likely to infect people who are unvaccinated... the full effect of vaccines on reducing transmission is even higher than 63 per cent, because most vaccinated people don’t become infected in the first place... vaccines reduce transmission by more than 80 per cent overall
That depends which studies you read about, some studies also say wearing masks reduces transmission, but the virus is so very, very tiny compared to the holes in mask material that it will not stop them...
Dermot has quoted his source (New Scientist), what is yours? No reputable source = fake news.
As for masks, how much proof do you need? Here's some comments from a year ago (there may be more up to date sources available now):
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8
Summary: masks aren't perfect but there's a large body of both scientific and anecdotal evidence suggesting they both reduce transmission and reduce your chances of getting infected. Is it really so difficult to wear one?
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That depends which studies you read about, some studies also say wearing masks reduces transmission, but the virus is so very, very tiny compared to the holes in mask material that it will not stop them...
Usually the virus is on droplets of spittle or mucus. The mask stops most of that.
From the above Nature article.
"The virus itself is only about 0.1 µm in diameter. But because viruses don’t leave the body on their own, a mask doesn’t need to block particles that small to be effective. More relevant are the pathogen-transporting droplets and aerosols, which range from about 0.2 µm to hundreds of micrometres across. "
Masks aren't perfect but they help.
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I've been out for a walk and a nosey and people entering shops and on buses is about 50% compliance.
As posted, how difficult is it to wear a mask rather than this high and mighty mob who just don't care about others.
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Just to weigh in on the subject...
My bestest mate (a highly intelligent chartered surveyor by trade) steadfastly refuses to get vaccinated. Moreover his stance has influenced his wife and children to not get vaccinated either.
As an extremely fit fifty year old, he maintains that his chances of becoming seriously ill and dying are very low indeed. And he compared the idea of compulsory vaccination in countries like Austria as being an ominous sign of a potential return to fascism...
There are parallels between his thinking and the death of the 42-year old fitness fanatic mentioned here:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/nov/30/life-tragic-death-john-eyers-fitness-fanatic-who-refused-covid-vaccine
What is most interesting is the link to the research article (ongoing) which outlines that genetics may also play a part in how a person's body reacts to Covid infection:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01827-w
Potentially, extremely fit people may still succumb to the virus because of genomic differences - so it may not just be down to age, underlying health conditions and the amount of virus exposure.
The genome joker - which may dramatically increase / decrease our susceptibility to Covid-19 - is not easily known to any of us. Therefore, if this risk is also part of the equation, the logic to being vaccinated and wearing a mask (as a social responsibility to lessen transmission to others) becomes overwhelming.
In comparison to the genome joker, I'd always take my chances with the small risk of adverse serious side effects / death (because of embolism / myocarditis etc) associated with vaccination.
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Would not surprise me to find out that Pfizer were funding Wuhan lab to make a virus that they were already working on a vaccine for - loadsa money.....
This comment alone makes me realise why arguing a case (even with supporting scientific evidence) is futile...
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This comment alone makes me realise why arguing a case (even with supporting scientific evidence) is futile...
It is. What we are seeng playing out is Science and the Scientific Method, vs Dr. Google and the social media method. I know where my trust is placed. Not in governments, but in Science.
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My bestest mate (a highly intelligent chartered surveyor by trade) steadfastly refuses to get vaccinated. Moreover his stance has influenced his wife and children to not get vaccinated either.
As an extremely fit fifty year old, he maintains that his chances of becoming seriously ill and dying are very low indeed. And he compared the idea of compulsory vaccination in countries like Austria as being an ominous sign of a potential return to fascism...
There are parallels between his thinking and the death of the 42-year old fitness fanatic mentioned here:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/nov/30/life-tragic-death-john-eyers-fitness-fanatic-who-refused-covid-vaccine
There was a short but powerful piece in last weekends Sunday Times by Dr Rachael Clarke (unfortunately behind a paywall so can't link to it). She's a critical care expert in a busy hospital, and she described eloquently how her ICU beds had filled up with the unvaccinated, almost all of whom thought like your pal but recanted and pleaded to be vaccinated when it was too late. That didn't affect the way she was caring for them, but the despair in her words about the idiocy of their "it won't get me" attitude was very clear. And the beds occupied by them will not be available for you or I if we need them.
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Over the last couple of years, where allowed/released, there have been a small number of videos of people in ICU suffereing from severe breathing problems put down to Covid.
No other recent illness I've heard of causes these symptoms.
These videos are a reminder how bad this can be if you are hit hard.
Why some are refusing to potentially protect themselves beats me.
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My bestest mate (a highly intelligent chartered surveyor by trade) steadfastly refuses to get vaccinated. Moreover his stance has influenced his wife and children to not get vaccinated either.
As an extremely fit fifty year old, he maintains that his chances of becoming seriously ill and dying are very low indeed. And he compared the idea of compulsory vaccination in countries like Austria as being an ominous sign of a potential return to fascism...
There are parallels between his thinking and the death of the 42-year old fitness fanatic mentioned here:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/nov/30/life-tragic-death-john-eyers-fitness-fanatic-who-refused-covid-vaccine
There was a short but powerful piece in last weekends Sunday Times by Dr Rachael Clarke (unfortunately behind a paywall so can't link to it). She's a critical care expert in a busy hospital, and she described eloquently how her ICU beds had filled up with the unvaccinated, almost all of whom thought like your pal but recanted and pleaded to be vaccinated when it was too late. That didn't affect the way she was caring for them, but the despair in her words about the idiocy of their "it won't get me" attitude was very clear. And the beds occupied by them will not be available for you or I if we need them.
Abstract:
"She is young, ashen and fighting for her life, and all I can offer is morphine. Recent chemotherapy has sent her blood count crashing. The drugs that could cure her breast cancer are so toxic to her body that even an innocuous infection could be fatal. As she flinches from the pain of taking a breath, I know that her raw, inflamed lung is scraping against the wall of her chest, making each gasp an ordeal.
Ellen, in her mid-thirties and with everything to live for, trusts her doctors to administer an antibiotic so potent that it is nicknamed Domestos; painkillers ten times more potent than opium; and chemotherapy literally designed to kill living human cells, a cytotoxic poison. Yet she will not, under any circumstances, countenance having a Covid vaccine
Of the Covid patients treated in intensive care in recent months, the majority — nearly 75 per cent according to the latest data — have chosen not to be vaccinated. As Professor Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, put it this week: “This ongoing horror, which is taking place across ICUs in Britain, is now largely restricted to unvaccinated people.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i-suppress-a-howl-of-disbelief-she-would-rather-die-than-get-a-covid-vaccine-n2l8r2wcj
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Powerful reading...
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/nov/30/life-tragic-death-john-eyers-fitness-fanatic-who-refused-covid-vaccine
Extracts...
John wasn’t entirely wrong. He was extremely unlikely to die from Covid, as a physically fit 42-year-old with no underlying conditions. The Covid mortality rate for a 40-year-old with no underlying health conditions is about one in every 1,490 people infected.
But his calculus when it came to understanding the risk-to-benefit ratio of Covid vaccination was off. If infected, someone who is unvaccinated is 32 times more likely to die of Covid than someone who has been vaccinated. While vaccination carries a risk of side-effects, this risk is far smaller than the risk of being unvaccinated during a pandemic. Out of 46.3 million fully vaccinated people in the UK, 77 have died of blood clots thought to be related to a Covid vaccine.
“There is a huge asymmetry with risk,” says Dr Tom Stafford, a psychology lecturer at the University of Sheffield. “If you can get away with things that are low probability, you don’t know how dangerous they are until it’s too late.” Stafford uses the example of driving without a seatbelt: most of the time, you will be absolutely fine. But the one time you are in an accident, things might get very bad very quickly.
“It’s the same with the vaccine,” says Stafford. “It’s a low-probability event that you will get the virus and need hospitalisation. But if you do, then the vaccine shows its benefit.”
Active links for sources in the Guardian article linked above.
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Of the 34,500 daily infections, if only 1 in 1,490 fit, healthy, younger people die that still works out at 23 deaths. Almost 5 times the number who die on our roads every day.
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I know someone working in the French geriatric care system (they are French). There is a vaccine reluctance in France for various reasons, historical and ethnic culture of French Africans etc.
They (the carer) are convinced that the vaccine practices since the 1950s have resulted in greatly increased dementia cases. When you look into it, the articles they have been reading tend to confuse correlation and causation. They tend not to actually analyse the simple fact that more people are living much longer and so are likely to develop dementia, the fact that they were vaccinated as children in the 1950/60s just meant that more of them have survived this long and didn't die of measles etc. Also 50 or 60yrs ago a lot of folk died with dementia but it was not specifically diagnosed and recorded, or was put down to "eccentricity".
They have pointed me to various articles and lectures on youtube for example, and they almost always originate in an American religious background, some of them are pure charlatans and cite clear falsehoods, others may be well intentioned.
No amount of discussion nor reasoning will change their opinions and views regarding vaccination, no point even trying.
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Would not surprise me to find out that Pfizer were funding Wuhan lab to make a virus that they were already working on a vaccine for - loadsa money.....
This comment alone makes me realise why arguing a case (even with supporting scientific evidence) is futile...
The Wuhan lab was collecting, storing and experimenting on Bat coronavirus to increase its potency ( referred to as 'gain of function' ), now it seems American money was involved .. the truth will come out eventually.
https://nypost.com/2021/10/21/nih-admits-us-funded-gain-of-function-in-wuhan-despite-faucis-repeated-denials/
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Would not surprise me to find out that Pfizer were funding Wuhan lab to make a virus that they were already working on a vaccine for - loadsa money.....
This comment alone makes me realise why arguing a case (even with supporting scientific evidence) is futile...
The Wuhan lab was collecting, storing and experimenting on Bat coronavirus to increase its potency ( referred to as 'gain of function' ), now it seems American money was involved .. the truth will come out eventually.
https://nypost.com/2021/10/21/nih-admits-us-funded-gain-of-function-in-wuhan-despite-faucis-repeated-denials/
With all due respect that's not the point you made in your Pfizer post...
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Would not surprise me to find out that Pfizer were funding Wuhan lab to make a virus that they were already working on a vaccine for - loadsa money.....
This comment alone makes me realise why arguing a case (even with supporting scientific evidence) is futile...
The Wuhan lab was collecting, storing and experimenting on Bat coronavirus to increase its potency ( referred to as 'gain of function' ), now it seems American money was involved .. the truth will come out eventually.
https://nypost.com/2021/10/21/nih-admits-us-funded-gain-of-function-in-wuhan-despite-faucis-repeated-denials/
Thanks for posting your source this time.
The new York Post is owned by Rupert Murdoch.
"The Post has been criticized since the beginning of Murdoch's ownership for sensationalism, blatant advocacy, and conservatism bias. In 1980, the Columbia Journalism Review stated that the "New York Post is no longer merely a journalistic problem. It is a social problem—a force for evil.""
The rest of the Wikipedia entry is equally damning
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Post
See "Content, coverage, and controversies"
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Would not surprise me to find out that Pfizer were funding Wuhan lab to make a virus that they were already working on a vaccine for - loadsa money.....
This comment alone makes me realise why arguing a case (even with supporting scientific evidence) is futile...
The Wuhan lab was collecting, storing and experimenting on Bat coronavirus to increase its potency ( referred to as 'gain of function' ), now it seems American money was involved .. the truth will come out eventually.
https://nypost.com/2021/10/21/nih-admits-us-funded-gain-of-function-in-wuhan-despite-faucis-repeated-denials/
With all due respect that's not the point you made in your Pfizer post...
This is all a lot more complicated than you realise at the moment...... watch this space, Fizzer will be implicated pretty soon.
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Would not surprise me to find out that Pfizer were funding Wuhan lab to make a virus that they were already working on a vaccine for - loadsa money.....
This comment alone makes me realise why arguing a case (even with supporting scientific evidence) is futile...
The Wuhan lab was collecting, storing and experimenting on Bat coronavirus to increase its potency ( referred to as 'gain of function' ), now it seems American money was involved .. the truth will come out eventually.
https://nypost.com/2021/10/21/nih-admits-us-funded-gain-of-function-in-wuhan-despite-faucis-repeated-denials/
With all due respect that's not the point you made in your Pfizer post...
This is all a lot more complicated than you realise at the moment...... watch this space, Fizzer will be implicated pretty soon.
Following my vaccination I realised that, if I stand close to a microwave oven, it starts to glow and spark inside. I've also developed a strange attraction to Bill Gates - he's a dandy.
After researching online, it dawned on me that side-effects Piers Corbyn and others have talked about are actually true! And it's far more sinister than you realise at the moment....watch this space!
In the meantime the kids are happy, as I've been doubling up as a fridge magnet for all their school drawings!!
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The NYPost lies between the Sunday Sport and the Lancet in terms of quality of its scientific and medical reporting, perhaps closer to the former
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A friend has been sending me Daily Mail snippets for ages and most of them have been sensationalist and most have been wrong as time has proved.
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A lot of things that are printed and broadcast turn out to be of questionable veracity, often part of a 'project fear'. Don't make the mistake of thinking that the papers and channels you 'like' always print the 'truth'... You need to be cynical. What we really need is a vaccine against covid hysteria..
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The NYPost lies between the Sunday Sport and the Lancet in terms of quality of its scientific and medical reporting, perhaps closer to the former
Perhaps a lot closer? ::) :o
https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=new+york+post+covers&qpvt=New+york+Post+covers&tsc=ImageHoverTitle&form=IGRE&first=1
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Am I missing something or has Boris left the airports wide open?
Given that the omicron variant is probably widespread already and that the incubation period is unknown,
what good is one PCR test going to be at detecting and stopping infection?
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/covid-rules-latest-pcr-test-uk-quarantine-b1965371.html
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A lot of things that are printed and broadcast turn out to be of questionable veracity, often part of a 'project fear'. Don't make the mistake of thinking that the papers and channels you 'like' always print the 'truth'... You need to be cynical. What we really need is a vaccine against covid hysteria..
That's exactly why the wise person reads a wide variety of media across the spectrum, and insists on understanding the source of any statements before forming his own view.
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Most media works on the principle of "shock, horror, probe" headlines just to attract attention.
You will often hear (every day on the venerable BBC!!!) a headline like "The government is about to fine everyone £1000 for walking on the cracks in the pavement" , only to be followed a few seconds later by "That's according to claims by a nutter living in a cave in Arandistan". They ought to begin with the credentials of the source but of course that would dilute the shock, horror, probe effect. "A nutter in a cave has claimed that the government are doing something dreadful" doesn't have quite the same impact. The BBC don't need to do it, but they still do.
It's quite easy nowadays to be very selective and economical with the "actualité". Our political parties' PR departments aren't above editing video to make chosen victims look bad.
Quoting statistics is probably the most misleading, nothing wrong with stats but without an understanding and using them in context you can demonstrate more or less whatever you want.
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A lot of things that are printed and broadcast turn out to be of questionable veracity, often part of a 'project fear'. Don't make the mistake of thinking that the papers and channels you 'like' always print the 'truth'... You need to be cynical. What we really need is a vaccine against covid hysteria..
That's exactly why the wise person reads a wide variety of media across the spectrum, and insists on understanding the source of any statements before forming his own view.
Which is exactly what I do, I am not a NY Times reader, but when the NY Times reports on questions asked in US congress and prints letters admitting it has happened some people will still cite the politics of the news source and call it fake news. If you only read the Guardian and watch BBC you are going to get a very skewed view of the world, IMHO AlJazeera are one of the most impartial channels for news.
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Here's some impartial reading for you then.
The People's Covid Inquiry report is out.
The summary pdf is here:
https://36085122-5b58-481e-afa4-a0eb0aaf80ca.usrfiles.com/ugd/360851_62aeecaeb6944934b6c55d41708d7eeb.pdf 13
The full report is linked here:
https://www.peoplescovidinquiry.com/ 3
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Here's an example of how misleading stuff can be made to look (I've made this one from data on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ )
It's exactly the same data, just one graph is a linear plot, the other is a log plot. First looks like it's getting worse, second looks like it's levelling off. Exactly the same data.
(https://am3pap007files.storage.live.com/y4mi4KE6qUQmQeBV52WTXbbErwlBwDYANplx7Ei3HeerAiWydNSUtA6I5WnP7agp8qZFLh7B5muuBkk0UqAYFfFxBEY8Pu6gxCAO5ilyNVLOQwTO1ycgcKFXrnNcdNqfEVq4mfrrXSvaA1BcJvUjapV7e-JmEXmCtfiJBX2J7hDH69dr72HoiSKXTN5-54H-Dmt?width=743&height=1008&cropmode=none)
(Edit - image disappeared before, hope it stays now)
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Here's some impartial reading for you then.
The People's Covid Inquiry report is out.
The summary pdf is here:
https://36085122-5b58-481e-afa4-a0eb0aaf80ca.usrfiles.com/ugd/360851_62aeecaeb6944934b6c55d41708d7eeb.pdf 13
The full report is linked here:
https://www.peoplescovidinquiry.com/ 3
Why is it impartial ? Judges today are more political than politicians...
All the 20/20 vision hindsight about lives being saved in some hypothetical scenario is never going to work, the only ones to blame for not acting more quickly are the Chinese... and no report on Earth is going to bother them. Working out the cost in monetary terms of damage to economy, lost jobs etc. for 'every life saved' means that you end up with a massive amount of money per life - an amount of money no hospital ethics comittee on the planet would authorise to be spent on an old person ( around 75% of covid deaths ( 'with' or 'from' covid is open to debate ) have been in already very sick people over 80, average age of a covid victim is 82, average life expectancy in UK is remarkably close to that age - who were already suffering from life limiting conditions ).
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Israel scientists are playing it down :
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/omicron-covid-variant-booster-vaccines-israel-nitzan-horowitz-b969347.html
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There was a good quip from jack Dee on "Have I Got News for You". Not discussing Covid but what he said was "Should we be worried?, or as the BBC would put it, How worried should we be?". About sums up news reporting these days.
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Am I missing something or has Boris left the airports wide open?
Given that the omicron variant is probably widespread already and that the incubation period is unknown,
what good is one PCR test going to be at detecting and stopping infection?
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/covid-rules-latest-pcr-test-uk-quarantine-b1965371.html
Sorry about replying to my own post but I noticed this item tonight.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/01/israeli-doctor-believes-he-caught-omicron-variant-of-covid-in-london
"He undertook a PCR test on 20 November – his second day in the UK – and again on 21 November – the first day of the medical conference – as per UK and Israeli travel rules. After attending the final day on 23 November, he flew from London via Heathrow airport at 9pm. Upon arrival at Tel Aviv in the early hours of 24 November, he had a third PCR test – which also came back negative.PCR was too early to detect the infection. So either the second day of the meeting or the last day of the meeting because there is a lag between the time you get infected, and when the PCR turns positive."
“The only reasonable explanation is that I got infected on the last day of the meeting – maybe at the airport, maybe at the meeting,” he said. “That’s why the [third] PCR was too early to detect the infection. So either the second day of the meeting or the last day of the meeting because there is a lag between the time you get infected, and when the PCR turns positive.""
So if someone is infected just before a flight a PCR test taken immediately after the flight (or within 2 days) would not show up as positive.
Under the current rules a person needs only one negative result to assume themselves to be covid free.
I doubt that many people will test as much as this doctor.
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134 cases already but Johnson says go out and party.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-omicron-news-live-updates-b1969721.html
despite warnings of scientists.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/sage-scientists-seek-balanced-uk-response-to-omicron-concerns/ar-AARsfYh?ocid=msedgntp
See minutes of Sage meeting on 29th November (released yesterday)
Sage_97_Minutes_29_November_2021.pdf
Why not put the brakes on until more is known about the variant.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/omicron-variant-facts?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB
Are you feeling lucky
https://www.bing.com/search?pc=W018&q=Are+you+feeling+lucky+punk&form=BWMFDF
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The golden rule of Covid is by the time you hear about new variants they are already in the country. Luckily the variants getting milder, which is what a virus does to make sure it spreads the furthest... a dead host is no good at spreading the virus DNA.
https://www.cityam.com/coronavirus-u-turn-japan-reverses-covid-travel-ban-as-omicron-variant-increasingly-appears-to-be-mild-variant/
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There are no rules.
They don't know if it's getting milder.
There are still lots of live hosts available.
Read the articles and attachments before posting.
Hope they turn out to be right.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/omicron-mild-who/#:~:text=Cases%20of%20the%20Omicron%20variant%20of%20coronavirus%20are,could%20evade%20some%20protection%20afforded%20by%20existing%20jabs.
https://www.cityam.com/covid-death-rate-not-rising-swap-travel-restrictions-and-mass-hysteria-for-cautious-optimism-as-omicron-mutation-is-super-mild-variant-who-and-coronavirus-experts-say/
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'Don't worry, be happy'.......
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If anyone comes across good news about Covid, please feel free to post it ;D... People turn off when bombarded with constant gloom and doom :-X
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I believe Omicron is good news. Wherever it has raised its head around the world symptoms have been mild with no serious illness, hospitalisations or deaths. It seems to get around the vaccination as half the cases in England are in the double jabbed. The fact it is far more transmissible means it will oust the Delta variant as the Delta variant ousted Alpha. So hopefully, in a few months Omicron, with its mild symptoms, will be dominant. It may end up like the Common Cold, a coronavirus we happily live with.
As has already been said, a virus that kills its host dies out and one that merely infects survives and thrives. And that is the raison d'etre of viruses.
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If it is indeed found to be more transmissive and less severe then that would be good news since it would become more dominant than the delta variant.
Early signs are that this is the case but the demographics of the population in South Africa is different to other countries and there are other factors involved like the effectiveness of the present vaccinations.
Until it has been properly investigated I feel that it is irresponsible of the UK government to promote travel and socialising.
Once the lid is off the bottle and cases rise exponentially the genie can't be put back in.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/who-says-omicron-covid-variant-has-spread-to-38-countries.html
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Early signs are that this is the case but the demographics of the population in South Africa is different to other countries
It is not just SA cases that are mild. The EU and the US have found the same. I am a glass half full chap so I am hopeful.
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If anyone comes across good news about Covid, please feel free to post it ;D... People turn off when bombarded with constant gloom and doom :-X
Lots of good news. Those dying are largely unvaccinated.
So the vaccines work and the anti vaxxers are wrong and dying.
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If anyone comes across good news about Covid, please feel free to post it ;D... People turn off when bombarded with constant gloom and doom :-X
Lots of good news. Those dying are largely unvaccinated.
So the vaccines work and the anti vaxxers are wrong and dying.
No the already very sick over 85's are dying, and the very sick over 60's a bit less so, whether vaccinated or not, as are obese people. Normal fairly healthy unvaccinated people of reasonable BMI have little to fear from covid, and certainly not the 12 and even 5 year olds that are being included in vaccination now. The hysteria continues unabated even in the face of new variants that are no worse than a common cold... common sense has gone out of the window, nobody knows where the asylum keys are because the inmates ran off with them, and Pfizer is laughing all the way to its Swiss bank, having more than paid off the multi Billion dollar fines it has had to pay in last 20 years due to dodgy trials of medicines, falsifying data and failing to declare side effects - all in the name of greater profit.
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If it is indeed found to be more transmissive and less severe then that would be good news since it would become more dominant than the delta variant.
Early signs are that this is the case but the demographics of the population in South Africa is different to other countries and there are other factors involved like the effectiveness of the present vaccinations.
Until it has been properly investigated I feel that it is irresponsible of the UK government to promote travel and socialising.
Once the lid is off the bottle and cases rise exponentially the genie can't be put back in.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/who-says-omicron-covid-variant-has-spread-to-38-countries.html
Many South Africans are not vaccinated, so the effectiveness of the vaccines is neither here nor there. There are plenty of older people in SA.
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Powerful reading...
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/nov/30/life-tragic-death-john-eyers-fitness-fanatic-who-refused-covid-vaccine
Extracts...
John wasn’t entirely wrong. He was extremely unlikely to die from Covid, as a physically fit 42-year-old with no underlying conditions. The Covid mortality rate for a 40-year-old with no underlying health conditions is about one in every 1,490 people infected.
But his calculus when it came to understanding the risk-to-benefit ratio of Covid vaccination was off. If infected, someone who is unvaccinated is 32 times more likely to die of Covid than someone who has been vaccinated. While vaccination carries a risk of side-effects, this risk is far smaller than the risk of being unvaccinated during a pandemic. Out of 46.3 million fully vaccinated people in the UK, 77 have died of blood clots thought to be related to a Covid vaccine.
“There is a huge asymmetry with risk,” says Dr Tom Stafford, a psychology lecturer at the University of Sheffield. “If you can get away with things that are low probability, you don’t know how dangerous they are until it’s too late.” Stafford uses the example of driving without a seatbelt: most of the time, you will be absolutely fine. But the one time you are in an accident, things might get very bad very quickly.
“It’s the same with the vaccine,” says Stafford. “It’s a low-probability event that you will get the virus and need hospitalisation. But if you do, then the vaccine shows its benefit.”
Active links for sources in the Guardian article linked above.
Culzean, please read this article telling of just one of many younger, healthy people who believed the vaccine was pointless, before they died. Please read before you restate your views on it being only elderly, already ill, overweight people who are succumbing.
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Thought this graph of covid death (2 was current rate) vs adult vaccination rate was interesting. Across EU, so excludes UK.I
https://mobile.twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1463119478099693571
For England and Scotland, vac rate seems 89%, and about 24 deaths per million
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/vaccines
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
It doesn't take account of nation's weath, age distr, vulnerable groups size, or prev excess death from 2020.
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https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths
Current UK covid deaths with co morbidities listed
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More mixed messaging.
Horse bolted, stable door, half shut again.
"It's already here. They've now changed their travel advice twice within a week. It's impossible for anyone to plan."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59534685
Good feature on omicron variant on Friday's Indy Sage beginning at about 10minutes.
Frightening uptick in both infections and hospitalisations from about mid November -exponential growth with a doubling time of around 3 or 4 days.
Many infections amongst the very young. Infections mostly mild but infections of other variants amongst children mostly mild.
https://www.independentsage.org/christina-pagel-speaks-to-sky-news-about-the-omicron-variant/
Summary in screenshot from Indie Sage You Tube
Edit Cropped screenshot
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Many South Africans are not vaccinated, so the effectiveness of the vaccines is neither here nor there. There are plenty of older people in SA.
Quite the reverse.
If the vaccines were ineffective we would be in the same boat as the South Africans.
Fortunately the vaccines are likely to be effective although the effectiveness may be reduced somewhat.
The median age is very much younger in Southern Africa than it is in Europe.
Edit On second thoughts . If the vaccines were ineffective the UK would be in a worse position than South Africa in a month or so due to its relatively ageing population.
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Many South Africans are not vaccinated, so the effectiveness of the vaccines is neither here nor there. There are plenty of older people in SA.
Quite the reverse.
If the vaccines were ineffective we would be in the same boat as the South Africans.
Fortunately the vaccines are likely to be effective although the effectiveness may be reduced somewhat.
The median age is very much younger in Southern Africa than it is in Europe.
Edit On second thoughts . If the vaccines were ineffective the UK would be in a worse position than South Africa in a month or so due to its relatively ageing population.
As expected there are recently a lot of infections in SA, but very few deaths.... This virus is no different to any other in the way it becomes easier to catch but not so deadly ( but don't tell the government, they ignore facts that don't suit their agenda ). Omicron will take over from Delta and everyone will be better off... except Pfizer shareholders.
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Roll up, roll up
AZ jabs, £2 each or 3 for a Pfizer
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As expected there are recently a lot of infections in SA, but very few deaths.... This virus is no different to any other in the way it becomes easier to catch but not so deadly ( but don't tell the government, they ignore facts that don't suit their agenda ). Omicron will take over from Delta and everyone will be better off... except Pfizer shareholders.
Still too early to say.
Tests are still ongoing.
Until the results are known it is best to take more precautions than advocated by UK Government and get you booster -even if it's Pfizer.
See Indie Sage You Tube video 10 -16 Minutes
and
https://pharmaphorum.com/news/omicron-set-to-dominate-in-uk-within-weeks-says-expert/
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Dr Fauci is optimistic about the severity of Omicron. Dr Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on Sunday that the travel ban is being reevaluated every day, and the US government is aware of the hardship it has placed on those countries. Fauci, Biden's chief medical adviser, said the ban was put in place when the US was "in the dark" and just learning about a surge in cases in South Africa because of the Omicron variant; the ban was meant to provide time to assess the situation.
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Too early to be definite
"Anthony Fauci, MD, White House, chief medical advisor, yesterday told CNN that the South African clinical findings are encouraging, but he added that it's too early to make definitive statements.
On CBS "Face the Nation" yesterday, Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, COVID-19 technical lead for the World Health Organization (WHO), said it might take weeks to understand if some patients with Omicron go on to develop severe disease. Even if large numbers of people have mild disease, however, some people will still need hospitalization, she added."
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/12/report-south-africas-omicron-hot-spot-spurs-cautious-optimism
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Yeah, Fauci is making money out of keeping the panic and hysteria at maximum level - don't forget he is implicated ( up to his neck ) in moving bat coronavirus 'research' into Wuhan. If there is any justice Fauci will end up in Jail...
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Here are the findings so far from South Africa 'Reasons to be Cheerful Pt 3' ( Ian Dury and the blockheads ).
• Fewer people hospitalised with Omicron have ended up in intensive care: 8 per cent, compared to 25 per cent for Delta.
• Fewer patients need oxygen: only about a third. A big change, the study says, because until now pretty much every Covid patient has needed oxygen.
• Most Omicron patients were not admitted for Covid: they registered due to hospital policy of testing everyone admitted.
• Omicron patients are out of hospital sooner: 2.8 days ‘compared to an average length of stay of 8.5 days for the past 18 months’.
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Just need the data on how effective the vaccines are
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Just need the data on how effective the vaccines are
There's a bit more involved than that see the Indie Sage report posted earlier.(10 min -18min)
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Yeah, Fauci is making money out of keeping the panic and hysteria at maximum level - don't forget he is implicated ( up to his neck ) in moving bat coronavirus 'research' into Wuhan. If there is any justice Fauci will end up in Jail...
Do you have any reputable source for that allegation? (Other than Facebook or the Daily Sport or New York Post.)
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Its a deep rabbit hole, but here's a good start.
Number 3 Amazon best seller, only recently been deposed from number 1 slot.
https://www.amazon.com/Real-Anthony-Fauci-Democracy-Childrens/dp/1510766804/ref=zg_bs_books_3/140-2263647-5033657?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=503CNQHZDRX80XXNN1YT
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Here we go again.
Covid news – live: ‘Work from home plans drawn up’ as UK could see 90,000 cases a day by Christmas
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/covid-omicron-cases-vaccine-boosters-live-b1971766.html
"Ministers are expected to sign off new rules to impose home working and vaccine certification across England in the face of rising Covid cases, the Guardian understands.
Downing Street said no final decisions had been made but ministers and officials convened on Wednesday to move to plan B and to begin imposing some restrictions as early as Wednesday night."
https://pressnewsagency.org/ministers-expected-to-sign-off-plan-b-covid-rules-for-england/
Too little too late again.
Why did he not re -introduce working from home and extra mask wearing last month when he was warned by scientists?
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Got to agree.
What harm does mandatory mask wearing cause, none.
However, even mandatory mask wearing is ignored by so many. I just wish there was some better policing and fines.
I saw a prime example earlier this week. Tesco petrol station shop 06:30. Half a dozen young lads went in there getting their sandwiches and drinks. If I'd have been behind the counter I'd have locked the electronic door and told them no mask no entry.
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Here we go again.
Covid news – live: ‘Work from home plans drawn up’ ........
"Ministers are expected to sign off new rules .......
Downing Street said no final decisions had been made but ministers and officials convened on Wednesday to move to plan B and to begin imposing some restrictions as early as Wednesday night."
........
The Speaker of the Commons made some interesting remarks and "reminders" today that such announcements should be made to the House not to the Media, and he "invited" the Government to submit such a request to make a statement in the House and plenty of opportunity would be made available ............
Nearest thing to a total bo**ocking I've heard, it remains to be seen if the PM could give a **** about democracy (again), and whether any action results if he ignores the House of Commons.
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Its a deep rabbit hole, but here's a good start.
Number 3 Amazon best seller, only recently been deposed from number 1 slot.
https://www.amazon.com/Real-Anthony-Fauci-Democracy-Childrens/dp/1510766804/ref=zg_bs_books_3/140-2263647-5033657?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=503CNQHZDRX80XXNN1YT
One wee problem with that fellow. He promotes the totally discredited idea that vaccines cause autism and heads an anti-vaccination advocacy group. That's hardly an unbiased source. It's more like New York Post material.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.#COVID-19
Just because a recent book has sold well for a few weeks doesn't necessarily mean it's solid journalism.
Had it been published in the UK the libel lawyers would have been all over it. The laws in the US are more lax in that regard.
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Its a deep rabbit hole, but here's a good start.
Number 3 Amazon best seller, only recently been deposed from number 1 slot.
https://www.amazon.com/Real-Anthony-Fauci-Democracy-Childrens/dp/1510766804/ref=zg_bs_books_3/140-2263647-5033657?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=503CNQHZDRX80XXNN1YT
I don't think I'll go down that rabbit hole thank you.
There are too many of them on this side of the Atlantic already ::)
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Here we go again.
Covid news – live: ‘Work from home plans drawn up’ as UK could see 90,000 cases a day by Christmas
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/covid-omicron-cases-vaccine-boosters-live-b1971766.html
"Ministers are expected to sign off new rules to impose home working and vaccine certification across England in the face of rising Covid cases, the Guardian understands.
Downing Street said no final decisions had been made but ministers and officials convened on Wednesday to move to plan B and to begin imposing some restrictions as early as Wednesday night."
https://pressnewsagency.org/ministers-expected-to-sign-off-plan-b-covid-rules-for-england/
Too little too late again.
Why did he not re -introduce working from home and extra mask wearing last month when he was warned by scientists?
The panic merchants are at it again, Countries who have more experience of the Omicron virus than us say it is nothing to worry about, in fact it is better if the population is exposed to the milder variant because it will effectively 'vaccinate' those who do not want a dodgy man made vaccine.... Many in SA did not even know that had Omicron, they went into hospital for something else and due to the practice of testing everyone who enters a hospital in SA for covid they were told 'you have Omicron covid' - better to let a harmless variant like Omicron spread and push the other more virulent strains out than to carry on with all the malarkey we have had up to now.
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/covid-omicron-cases-vaccine-boosters-live-b1971766.html?page=2
Or will the PM delay again in light of Schrodinger's party?
Allegra Stratton has just resigned (or been pushed)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/08/allegra-stratton-leaves-cop26-role-after-no-10-christmas-party-video
Cummings suggests Plan B is a dead cat to distract from party allegations but is it the other way round?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-plan-b-christmas-cummings-b1971962.html
It's just one farce following another.
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better to let a harmless variant like Omicron spread and push the other more virulent strains out than to carry on with all the malarkey we have had up to now.
Thanks Dr Culzean.
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Yep. The government could save a fortune by sacking all those so-called scientists and hiring an optimistic expert like Professor Culzean.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0012b15/the-richard-dimbleby-lecture-dame-sarah-gilbert
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-97-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-29-november-2021 (pdf)
Excerpt
"6. The manner in which Omicron has spread in parts of South Africa while Delta levels
remain low suggests that it could have any combination of greater transmissibility,
escape from natural immunity and escape from vaccine-induced immunity.
7. It is highly likely that Omicron can escape immunity to some extent, but it is not yet clear
how much. The evidence comes from the number of reinfections already seen, and from
the presence in the Omicron genome of a combination of mutations that are either
already known to be associated with immune escape or which are found in areas that
structural studies suggest will affect antibody binding. All known antigenic sites for
neutralising antibodies are potentially disrupted, which has not been seen in
combination in any previous variant. Some mutations may affect some T cell epitopes in
the spike protein, S, although at a population level this is less likely to have a major
impact because different individuals recognize different epitopes. Other changes are
present that may affect transmissibility, for example those associated with ACE2 binding
site, or furin cleavage sites or in regions outside of S such as in nucleoprotein, N."
No I don't really know what it all means either but I would rather the government introduce more precautions just now(or even better - had done so weeks ago) till the guys who do understand find out, rather than open the floodgates just now and risk a full lockdown early in the new year.
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Boris on tv at 6 ( or sometime after)
but whether he'll talk about Covid, Christmas parties, Kermit the Frog or Peppa Pig is anybody's guess
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Let's translate:
All known antigenic sites for neutralising antibodies are potentially disrupted, which has not been seen in combination in any previous variant.
The surface details that antibodies latch on to appear to have changed. This is new.
Some mutations may affect some T cell epitopes in the spike protein, S, although at a population level this is less likely to have a major impact because different individuals recognize different epitopes.
The "spike" which attaches to a cell to infect it has changed too. This will affect the effectiveness of a different facet of the immune system. Different people's immune systems will have learned to recognise different parts of this, so whether this bit of the immune response works will be a little hit-and-miss.
I can recommend watching:
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Let's paraphrase,
Best left to those with qualifications and experience in immunology, epidemiology and virology (and hope that governments will act sensibly on their advice.)
I have faith in the former but not the latter.
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Latest Sage minutes from 7th December
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-98-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-december-2021/sage-98-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-december-2021
I was looking for these yesterday but they weren't available then.
Some sobering reading and pointed recommendations.
"16. Given the rapid increase, decision makers will need to consider urgently which measures to introduce to slow the growth of infections if the aim is to reduce the likelihood of unsustainable pressure on the NHS. The effectiveness of these will be dependent on the measures chosen, and also on behavioural responses. Evidence suggests that measures could be reintroduced with expectation of a similar level of adherence as has been seen in the past. Adherence is likely to be higher if messaging and policy have clear rationales and are consistent. Consistency across the UK may help with messaging."
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I ran the sums:
If Omicron Covid cases double every two days, then by 1st week in January we will see 1million cases in total. With the daily rate of new infections running at 0.25 to 0.5million a day.
With what effect on hospital numbers or deaths I have no idea as there are zero stats available.
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The UK government are certainly not following the science any more, not quite sure what they are following.. maybe Boris just wants scary headlines to 'bury' the Downing Street party news..
In stark contrast to Astrazenica it is sad to see that Pfizer and Moderna will not share the formula of their vaccine with WHO to allow it to be made available more cheaply to countries around the world... The is a huge patent battle brewing in USA, where the NIH ( national institute of Health - a public body ) say that the mRNA vaccine was developed in a collaboration with Moderna using public money, but the that the NIH did not appear on any of the patents... So it is Pfizer vs US government ( as has happened in the past because Pfizer broke the rules and got heavily fined, in fact Pfizer has the unenviable reputation of being the most heavily fined Pharma company in the world because of malpractice ).
The WHO has seen no recorded deaths due to Omicron from the 38 countries that have declared they have the variant, and in some of them the variant has been around for over 4 weeks.
The WHO has called the UK's response to Omicron 'extreme', Japan dropped plans to stop flights from South Africa the day after they introduced them.
https://www.cityam.com/anxiously-optimistic-south-africa-holds-its-breath-as-battle-of-the-covid-mutations-rages-omicron-deaths-still-zero-despite-new-coronavirus-variant-spreading-twice-as-fast-as-deadly-delta/
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If Omicron isn't as bad as previous variants then that is good news.
Pfizer and Moderna should be thoroughly ashamed of their secretive profiteering holding the world to ransom.
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I ran the sums:
If Omicron Covid cases double every two days, then by 1st week in January we will see 1million cases in total. With the daily rate of new infections running at 0.25 to 0.5million a day.
With what effect on hospital numbers or deaths I have no idea as there are zero stats available.
I don't think it will be as bad as that. Doubling time is likely to be quite a bit longer than two days when things settle down.
Some of the cases are being found rather than as a result of spreading from known infections.
Numbers are still relatively small so difficult to get an accurate estimate for doubling time.
South Africa's doubling time is running at about a week at present.
UK has greater percentage vaccinated than S Africa therefore less of the population susceptible to infection.
There will be even less susceptible people as vaccinated population increases and infected people are isolated or acquire immunity through infection.
However it comes at a very bad time with social gatherings for Christmas and other religious (and Pagan) festivals around the New Year.
Also depends on how well people adhere to restrictions. If symptoms are not very serious many people will be tempted to socialise or work (many through financial necessity) despite having symptoms. Mixed messaging from government will not help.
If doubling time continues at anything like current rates,however, the NHS will be put under serious pressure before long.
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UK has greater percentage vaccinated than S Africa therefore less of the population susceptible to infection.
The accountant chappies at Pfizer are telling us that previous / present vaccines do not work against Omicron and that governments need to buy even more of their overpriced stuff. Those Pfizer bean counters would love to see everyone getting a jab every 2 weeks. If there are less people vaccinated in SA ( about 26% have been jabbed ) then it is even more re-assuring that no deaths reported from Omicron yet after over 4 weeks.
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The accountant chappies at Pfizer are telling us that previous / present vaccines do not work against Omicron ...
Wherever did you get that scaremongering from? Last news i saw about Pfizer was trumpeting that their vaccine was actually pretty good against omicron, for example:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biontech-pfizer-say-test-shows-3-doses-vaccine-neutralise-omicron-2021-12-08/
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The accountant chappies at Pfizer are telling us that previous / present vaccines do not work against Omicron ...
Wherever did you get that scaremongering from? Last news i saw about Pfizer was trumpeting that their vaccine was actually pretty good against omicron, for example:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biontech-pfizer-say-test-shows-3-doses-vaccine-neutralise-omicron-2021-12-08/
No less than The Times...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/omicron-variant-will-vaccines-and-boosters-still-work-wnxp99tzm
The Pfizer / Moderna model is to keep offering boosters... they are planning another booster for a variant that from all the evidence so far does not need one.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/omicron-scare-pfizer-says-third-dose-key-to-fight-spread-2643408
Fizzer call them boosters because of the effect they have on their profits.....
Quote from a article in a financial publication
Frank D’Amelio, Pfizer’s CFO, has claimed that once the pandemic shifts into an “endemic” state — essentially, when most places are vaccinated, restricting COVID-19 cases to certain pockets of the world — it will create an opportunity for Pfizer to increase the pricing of its vaccine. This will likely make it harder for low-resource communities to get vaccinated.
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UK has greater percentage vaccinated than S Africa therefore less of the population susceptible to infection.
The accountant chappies at Pfizer are telling us that previous / present vaccines do not work against Omicron and that governments need to buy even more of their overpriced stuff. Those Pfizer bean counters would love to see everyone getting a jab every 2 weeks. If there are less people vaccinated in SA ( about 26% have been jabbed ) then it is even more re-assuring that no deaths reported from Omicron yet after over 4 weeks.
They are not saying they do not work.
They are saying protection, even from two vaccinations is less for Omicron than for previous variants.
(Many cases have had two vaccinations.)
That's what the guys from Sage are saying too.
7. "It is highly likely that Omicron can escape immunity to some extent, but it is not yet clear
how much. The evidence comes from the number of reinfections already seen, and from
the presence in the Omicron genome of a combination of mutations that are either
already known to be associated with immune escape or which are found in areas that
structural studies suggest will affect antibody binding. "
8. There is likely to be a greater reduction in protection conferred by previous infections or
vaccines against infection than against severe disease (high confidence). It is not yet
known whether the extent to which protection from natural infection, vaccination, or a
combination of both may be affected, nor how this might vary by the type of vaccine
used or the variant someone has previously been infected with.
10. Booster vaccinations have been shown to produce very strong antibody responses (high
confidence) and are likely to provide protection against severe disease, hospitalisation
and death from most variants at least in the short term, with protection against severe
disease remaining higher than protection against infection. Increasing coverage of
booster vaccinations (as well as increasing coverage of primary courses) is therefore an
important defence. Other vaccine strategies, such as updated vaccines, may also need
to be considered depending on the degree of immune escape. Companies are already
pursuing both multivalent vaccines and Omicron specific vaccines.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-97-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-29-november-2021 (pdf)
Summary. Get your booster
Edit I have added the bit I can read from your Times article (paywall)
"The head of the drug maker Moderna has warned that the existing Covid-19 vaccines are unlikely to be as effective against the Omicron variant as they were against previous variants. "
The operative word is "as" (the first one which I have underlined.)
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The accountant chappies at Pfizer are telling us that previous / present vaccines do not work against Omicron ...
Wherever did you get that scaremongering from? Last news i saw about Pfizer was trumpeting that their vaccine was actually pretty good against omicron, for example:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biontech-pfizer-say-test-shows-3-doses-vaccine-neutralise-omicron-2021-12-08/
No less than The Times...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/omicron-variant-will-vaccines-and-boosters-still-work-wnxp99tzm
The Pfizer / Moderna model is to keep offering boosters... they are planning another booster for a variant that from all the evidence so far does not need one.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/omicron-scare-pfizer-says-third-dose-key-to-fight-spread-2643408
Your comment specifically refers to Pfizer being ineffective. The Times article (the short snippet I can see) actually says that Pfizer are confident their vaccine will be effective. The comments about Moderna are theoretical, the Pfizer comments based on tests. It's actually too soon to be certain either way, but I don't see anything supporting any scaremongering about vaccines being ineffective.
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This is interesting, gene sequence from common cold coronavirus has been found in Omicron variant, this goes a long way to explain the increased transmission but much milder symptoms of Omicron. The sheer speed at which Omicron took over from Delta in SA is surprising and very hopeful, not alongside Delta but replacing it..... Most patients 'with covid' were admitted to hospital for something else unconnected with Covid - but are still classed as 'covid patients' because they had a positive result in the covid test that is given to everyone admitted to hospital in SA.
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They also say it could have mutated with parts of the HIV virus, HIV being rife in southern Africa. I have also read a theory that it may have transferred to an animal, mutated and moved back to humans. Perhaps one day they will find out.
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Professor Peter Openshaw of Imperial College London who’s also Vice Chair of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group on Omicron variant Channel 4 this evening.
https://www.channel4.com/news/covid-150-deaths-a-day-in-uk-an-unacceptably-high-number-says-professor
Is Plan B stringent enough or should Christmas parties be cancelled?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/cancel-your-christmas-party-health-boss-urges-amid-rising-omicron-cases/vi-AARF1rH?ocid=msedgntp
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Is Plan B stringent enough or should Christmas parties be cancelled?
How about the ones in November and December 2020 in SW1A postcode district? ;D
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Is Plan B stringent enough or should Christmas parties be cancelled?
How about the ones in November and December 2020 in SW1A postcode district? ;D
Parties? What Parties?? ;) ;) ;)
"Sajid Javid and Mike Ellis both claim nothing untoward happened at events that did not take place"
"Ellis gave a solemn undertaking that Simon Case definitely hadn’t been at the three “gatherings” he was currently investigating, as they hadn’t taken place, but couldn’t offer guarantees about any other “gatherings” that hadn’t happened. Magical thinking for a magical realist."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/09/gathering-storm-ministers-party-pieces-fail-to-convince
You would need Dr. Emmett Brown's DeLorean to cancel those but they are not going to inspire sensible behaviour in the population this year.
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Is Plan B stringent enough or should Christmas parties be cancelled?
Plan C under consideration.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/plan-c-pubs-care-homes-omicron-b1973452.html
Perhaps if Johnson had listened to Sturgeon and Drakeford 3 weeks ago he would only have needed a U turn rather than a hand brake turn?
Edit Just been listening to Nicola Sturgeon's latest Covid Briefing.
Can't yet find it on iPlayer but it's sobering stuff. Well worth a look if you can find it.
4 minutes worth and a summary here.
https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-issues-22423151
Update Here is the Covid Update
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-59607055
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Oh Dear.
No plans to introduce further Covid measures, Downing Street says
The government has denied that it is planning to introduce further Covid restrictions in England.
A spokesman for the Prime Minister said: “We have introduced measures which are appropriate and have no plans to go beyond that.”
However, he said that the government “will act if necessary”, adding that there is “an array of options available to us”.
London Evening Standard Live updates at 14.43
Compare and contrast
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-uk-news-latest-face-masks-indoor-boris-johnson-christmas-parties-plan-b-omicron-b971109.html
and
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-uk-news-latest-face-masks-indoor-boris-johnson-christmas-parties-plan-b-omicron-b971109.html?itm_source=Internal&itm_channel=homepage_trending_article_component&itm_campaign=trending_section&itm_content=3#post-349377
Too busy trying/lying to save his own skin.
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So far, the evidence I have read suggests Omicron = bad cold in S Africa, (unvaxxed).
No-one has published any study on UK cases - as far as I know.
Personally I would suggest there will be lots of cases but the majority may be very mild. But not sure.
Ms Sturgeon appears very certain without any evidence,
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So far, the evidence I have read suggests Omicron = bad cold in S Africa, (unvaxxed).
No-one has published any study on UK cases - as far as I know.
Personally I would suggest there will be lots of cases but the majority may be very mild. But not sure.
Ms Sturgeon appears very certain without any evidence,
The severity is not known
Even if the majority are very mild there is very likely going to be enough cases requiring to be hospitalised to put great strain on the NHS.
A small percentage of a very large number still amounts to a large number.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/09/the-uk-braces-for-1-million-omicron-cases-as-covid-variant-spreads.html
I'm sure Ms Sturgeon will be furnished with more information than reaches the media.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/omicron-may-be-infecting-4000-britons-a-day/ar-AARGpFg?ocid=uxbndlbing
Yet the UK government continues to argue about when is a party not a party and who paid for Johnson's wallpaper.
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I ran the numbers assuming Omicron kept growing till end January 2022, then plateaued until March.
IF -and this is very much a worse case - if the hospitalisations and deaths were the same as Delta, the NHS would be basically overwhelmed end January and the deaths by March would nearly exceed the total deaths to date from Covid.
No wonder she's worried. (Because her scientists will have come up with something very similar. It is hardly rocket science to do simple forecasts.)
BUT I consider that a 25% probability. Far more likely - and I speak as an uneducated layman as far as pandemics - is that Omicron will be less than 50% as fatal as Delta or even 10% or smaller..
(I hope so.)
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There are so many interacting factors involved that it is impossible to make accurate predictions.
The best the scientists can do is model a range of possibilities based on assumptions many of which are unpredictable like human behaviour.
The media don't help by latching on to the extremes.
This makes it easy for the deniers to claim that the scientists' predictions are always wrong.
Let's hope that the factors combine to give the most favourable results.
The situation is probably very similar in the rest of the UK, although perhaps a superspreader event (such as the Steps concert might have put Scotland slightly ahead) and a superspreader event can make a great difference where exponential growth is involved.
There will be many potential superspreader events during the festive season.
https://www.channel4.com/news/two-covid-jabs-may-not-be-enough-says-scotlands-national-clinical-director
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There are so many interacting factors involved that it is impossible to make accurate predictions.
The best the scientists can do is model a range of possibilities based on assumptions many of which are unpredictable like human behaviour.
The media don't help by latching on to the extremes.
This makes it easy for the deniers to claim that the scientists' predictions are always wrong.
Let's hope that the factors combine to give the most favourable results.
Most of the deniers appear incapable of simple logical thought, are innumerate and without any scientific training. They would be laughed at in a legal situation. Give them a case to argue and they descend to ad hominem remarks .
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There are so many interacting factors involved that it is impossible to make accurate predictions.
The best the scientists can do is model a range of possibilities based on assumptions many of which are unpredictable like human behaviour.
The media don't help by latching on to the extremes.
This makes it easy for the deniers to claim that the scientists' predictions are always wrong.
Let's hope that the factors combine to give the most favourable results.
Most of the deniers appear incapable of simple logical thought, are innumerate and without any scientific training. They would be laughed at in a legal situation. Give them a case to argue and they descend to ad hominem remarks .
A bit like Prime Minister's Questions then.
Seems to be bad in London too.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-news-uk-latest-live-boris-johnson-party-new-rules-plan-b-covid-12469075?postid=3082141 See item linked to Gove in "Key points"
Edit added link
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Latest update from UKHSA
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk
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Daily infections up to 58k. The chart suggests we will see 90k a day. Probably very quickly.
From the Gove link above " . None of the cases to date is known to have been hospitalised or died.".
They omitted "yet".
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Estimates of hospital admissions by UK Health Security Agency
The Guardian has seen leaked advice from UKHSA for Javid marked “official, sensitive” saying: “The key point is that under a range of plausible scenarios, stringent action is needed on or before 18 December 2021 if doubling times stay at 2.5 days. Even if doubling times rise to around 5 days, stringent action is likely still needed in December.”
It adds: “The rapid spread of Omicron means that action to limit pressures on the health system might have to come earlier than intuition suggests.” Its calculations suggest that even if Omicron causes a less severe hospitalisation rate of 1% or 0.5% compared with Delta’s 1.5%, then “stringent national measures’” would be needed by 18 December at the latest.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals
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In Scotland, it is doubling every 2.3 days at present.
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Looking at the latest BBC srticle it's all doom and gloom for January.
I do hope the 'models' are wrong.
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Just watched BBC news and Reporting Scotland.
There seems to be a distinct lack of urgency (again) south of the border.
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Looking at the latest BBC srticle it's all doom and gloom for January.
I do hope the 'models' are wrong.
Models depend on assumptions. So far - yesterday no deaths or hospitalisations.
Boris is in diversion mode. It's working.
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At the last election Boris seemed the best choice and he said he would, and did, get the Brexit job done. But I do think it's time he was replaced. Too many errors and he does bumble a lot more than he used to at PMQ and briefings.
If he is replaced that'll put Carrie's nose out of joint losing 'her' redecorated flat.
I read somewhere that she wears the trousers and demanded, and got, the flat refurb.
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At the last election Boris seemed the best choice and he said he would, and did, get the Brexit job done. But I do think it's time he was replaced. Too many errors and he does bumble a lot more than he used to at PMQ and briefings.
If he is replaced that'll put Carrie's nose out of joint losing 'her' redecorated flat.
I read somewhere that she wears the trousers and demanded, and got, the flat refurb.
Rumour has it that it is actually The Duchess of Downing Street who runs the country... :o
It seemed to run better when Cummings was in charge.. :-X
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Never mind Johnson's domestic troubles. His incompetence, narcissism and pig-headedness have already cost the country thousands of lives, billions of pounds and countless chaos and misery.
Meanwhile the Omicron clock keeps ticking.
If no extra restrictions and doubling time two days
12/12 1K cases per day
14/12 2K cases per day
16/12 4k cases per day
~100k by Christmas
~800k per day by Hogmanay
January's looking bad.
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At the last election Boris seemed the best choice and he said he would, and did, get the Brexit job done.
When did he do that? It isn't even remotely complete, and what has been done is a total shambles. He didn't even read his "oven ready deal" Withdrawal Agreement properly. By the way, more transition stuff kicks in on Jan 1st.
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At the last election Boris seemed the best choice and he said he would, and did, get the Brexit job done.
When did he do that? It isn't even remotely complete, and what has been done is a total shambles. He didn't even read his "oven ready deal" Withdrawal Agreement properly. By the way, more transition stuff kicks in on Jan 1st.
Absolutely agree, but subject for another thread I think.
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Absolutely agree, but subject for another thread I think.
Do we need another divisive moaning thread ?
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Absolutely agree, but subject for another thread I think.
Do we need another moaning thread ?
Absolutely NOT
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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OK.Back on topic then.
Indie Sage meeting from Friday.
Omicron dominated the whole meeting but specifically from about 6 min to 20 minutes.
Mainly on short term, medium term and longer term extra measures to mitigate the spread.
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So with 3,137 cases of Omicron that is the first people hospitalised as a result. How many will be in hospital when there are 800,000 new cases a day?
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So with 3,137 cases of Omicron that is the first people hospitalised as a result. How many will be in hospital when there are 800,000 new cases a day?
That's what they don't yet know.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-uk-reports-1-239-additional-omicron-cases-nearly-doubling-previous-daily-high-12494070
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That's what I was about to say.
So far, reported cases are rising but, at least in my area, deaths are still zero and daily hospital admissions have been about 7 a day for a few months now.
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In South Africa they found that Omicron displaced Delta almost completely within 2 weeks, so making the supposition that Delta cases will remain at present level till Christmas ( or as they say zero growth from present level ) is just plain wrong. To match the steep growth of Omicron there will be an equally steep drop off of Delta. Vast majority of Omicron cases in SA hospitals did not even know they had covid, they went in for something else, but routine admissions testing picked up covid ( the people did not even have symptoms ) - only then did they become ' a hospitalised covid case' - which is a lot more scary than 'someone in hospital for a broken leg, who just happened to have a positive covid test but have no symptoms'...
Best to consider Omicron as 'natures free vaccine', with maybe less side effects than the vaccines up to now.
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That's what I was about to say.
So far, reported cases are rising but, at least in my area, deaths are still zero and daily hospital admissions have been about 7 a day for a few months now.
There is a lag between infection and hospitalisation and then a further lag before death. They do not yet know the length of the lags or the percentage which will be serious enough to merit hospitilisation or result in death.
Until they do it is wise to try to reduce the number of infections by reducing contact, wearing masks, and self testing before going out to meet people and by self isolating if you or you family test positive.
This will gain time to vaccinate more people.
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In South Africa they found that Omicron displaced Delta almost completely within 2 weeks, so making the supposition that Delta cases will remain at present level till Christmas ( or as they say zero growth from present level ) is just plain wrong. To match the steep growth of Omicron there will be an equally steep drop off of Delta. Vast majority of Omicron cases in SA hospitals did not even know they had covid, they went in for something else, but routine admissions testing picked up covid ( the people did not even have symptoms ) - only then did they become ' a hospitalised covid case' - which is a lot more scary than 'someone in hospital for a broken leg, who just happened to have a positive covid test but have no symptoms'...
Best to consider Omicron as 'natures free vaccine', with maybe less side effects than the vaccines up to now.
Do we know that you can't have Delta and Omicron at the same time? They are different viruses after all. Nature's free vaccine? Never heard som much nonsense to be honest.
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In South Africa they found that Omicron displaced Delta almost completely within 2 weeks, so making the supposition that Delta cases will remain at present level till Christmas ( or as they say zero growth from present level ) is just plain wrong. To match the steep growth of Omicron there will be an equally steep drop off of Delta. Vast majority of Omicron cases in SA hospitals did not even know they had covid, they went in for something else, but routine admissions testing picked up covid ( the people did not even have symptoms ) - only then did they become ' a hospitalised covid case' - which is a lot more scary than 'someone in hospital for a broken leg, who just happened to have a positive covid test but have no symptoms'...
Best to consider Omicron as 'natures free vaccine', with maybe less side effects than the vaccines up to now.
You have to be careful in making comparisons with South Africa.
The population is much younger.
The percentage of people vaccinated is much smaller.
Many have previously been infected with other variants.
Many of the older people have died from Covid and therefore been removed from the people left to be susceptible to omicron.
It would be great if omicron proves to be much less severe but it is known already that irt is much more transmissable.
If it is much less severe --Great
If it is less severe but much more transmissable the extra transmisabilty will more than make up for the lesser severity.
Until the scientists know how much less severe it is it would be stupid to open the floodgates.
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Do we know that you can't have Delta and Omicron at the same time? They are different viruses after all.
In a few weeks Omicron will outcompete delta but the people who would have been infected with delta will be infected with omicron and additional people who would have been immune to delta will be infected by omicron.
Edit Sorry I think have misinterpreted your question.
I don't know.
One infection at a time is bad enough.
Second edit. It would appear that you can be infected with two different variants of covid at the same time.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/yes-you-can-contract-2-coronavirus-strains-at-the-same-time-what-to-know
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And now the PM has interrupted the evening TV schedule to announce accelerating the booster programme, so that all adults may have had a booster jab within the next three weeks (ie. before the end of the month).
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Do we know that you can't have Delta and Omicron at the same time?
I heard a virologist, on the BBC news, say it is possible to suffer from both strains at the same time. Add to that a dose of the flu and you would have a "full house"
How many of you have had the flu vaccination?
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The reason politicians carry on partying is that they know the truth about the virus, and know the low risk for most people who are not over 70 with existing multiple serious chronic illnesses is very, very low. Vaccinating kids under 12 and as low as 5 is a sign of the absolute madness that has gripped society...
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The reason politicians carry on partying is that they know the truth about the virus, and know the low risk for most people who are not over 70 with existing multiple serious chronic illnesses is very, very low. Vaccinating kids under 12 and as low as 5 is a sign of the absolute madness that has gripped society...
Do you really think our elected representatives are capable of orchestrating a conspiracy like that??
Seriously though, the risk to an individual of death may (or may not) be quite low. But the risk to society of having our health system completely gridlocked by a huge number of COVID patients is much greater. I'd prefer that there's a hospital bed available should I need one. Get vaccinated, get boosted.
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Vaccinating kids under 12 and as low as 5 is a sign of the absolute madness that has gripped society...
Young children will probably be the first to get infected since they are not yet vaccinated.
They wiill only suffer mild infections and probably not require hospitalisation.
They are however likely to pass the infection to older people who will be more susceptible to more serious illness.
This has been seen in S Africa. (children are not at present vaccinated in South Africa.)
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/09/south-africa-omicron-crisis-cases-hospitalizations-and-vaccinations.html
https://indianexpress.com/article/world/covid-19-omicron-children-south-africa-7663643/
This also explains your idea in previous posts that people were going into hospital for something else and then testing positive for covid. Most of these would be unvaccinated children who would show very little in the way of symptoms.
The age profile of covid patients is now rising.
Here are two screenshots from the Indie Sage Meeting on 3/12/21
showing the high prevalence of omicron in under 5s in the early days of omicron.
and how the prevalence of covid varies by age range comparing the figures for May 2021 and November 2021 (omicron)
The omicron variant is much more prevalent than the earlier variant in the younger age groups but the older variant is more prevalent in older age groups.
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And now the PM has interrupted the evening TV schedule to announce accelerating the booster programme, so that all adults may have had a booster jab within the next three weeks (ie. before the end of the month).
Anticipation not Mr Johnson's strong point.
Earlier measures. Distancing, masking, WFH, more testing and isolation would have lessened the need for last minute panic without significant damage to the economy.
But that's hind sight now.
Best thing we can do now is get boosted although adopting the above measures will help somewhat.
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When I read all of the above and then go out for a walk, before daylight, I can see why the infection rate is high.
I see buses in West London, noticeably the 140 heading for Heathrow full of workers, with very few wearing masks, especially upstairs, and most of the bus windows shut. Later on I see customers entering supermarkets and about a third still maskless and another smaller percentage wearing them as chin warmers or an exposed nose.
They just don't care or understand.
Then children pick up asymptomatic from parents of the above don't care mob, pass it around school which then gets taken home.
Very difficult to stop transmission.
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They just don't care or understand.
Or are selfish, of low-intelligence, or believe that everything is a conspiracy / their "personal freedoms" are being interfered with...
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Young children will probably be the first to get infected since they are not yet vaccinated.
They wiill only suffer mild infections and probably not require hospitalisation.
They are however likely to pass the infection to older people who will be more susceptible to more serious illness.
There seems to be a myth that the vaccinated cannot pass the virus on to others... I remember at the start of this virus that SAGE were saying that kids could not pass virus on, how wrong they were - been wrong about other stuff as well, their models turned out to be pants...
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Double jabbed lab worker in Taiwan gets a bite from a mouse being used for covid experiments and gets Delta... The initial theory of Wuhan lab leak was that the meat of experimental animals found its way to nearby wet market..
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/mouse-bite-infected-taiwan-lab-woker-covid
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You have to be careful in making comparisons with South Africa.
The population is much younger.
The percentage of people vaccinated is much smaller.
Many have previously been infected with other variants.
Many of the older people have died from Covid and therefore been removed from the people left to be susceptible to omicron.
Sub-Saharan Africa is home to 2/3 of Aids cases, aids / hiv makes people more likely to die from any other disease. South Africa has huge numbers of aids cases. About 15% of population is SA have aids ( rising to about 20% in people from 30 to 50 ), and it is the one of the largest if not the largest causes of death - around 70,000 people a year die from aids related illnesses every year in SA. If aids sufferers not dying from Omicron that is hopeful..
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Young children will probably be the first to get infected since they are not yet vaccinated.
They wiill only suffer mild infections and probably not require hospitalisation.
They are however likely to pass the infection to older people who will be more susceptible to more serious illness.
There seems to be a myth that the vaccinated cannot pass the virus on to others... I remember at the start of this virus that SAGE were saying that kids could not pass virus on, how wrong they were - been wrong about other stuff as well, their models turned out to be pants...
I don't know that they ever said that.
They said that children were unlikely to suffer serious illness --which still holds true.
Severity of covid is very much related to age - the older you are the more serious it is likely to be.
Circumstances change.
At the start of the pandemic the priority was to vaccinate the old and vulnerable.
As the older and more vulnerable were vaccinated and protected the disease spread amongst younger and younger age groups since they were unprotected. This was complicated by human behaviour and things like school and University terms.
As immunity from vaccinations waned in the elderly. they needed the protection of further vaccination.
Everybody makes mistakes. ----- It's how most of us learn.
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Do we know that you can't have Delta and Omicron at the same time? They are different viruses after all.
Second edit. It would appear that you can be infected with two different variants of covid at the same time.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/yes-you-can-contract-2-coronavirus-strains-at-the-same-time-what-to-know
Thanks. So can we now stop spouting the absolute nonsense that Omicron is nature's free vaccine please? Anyone saying that clearly does not understand much about virology.
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Last month the Federal Drug Administration ( USA ) went to court to get an order so that it can delay the release of the trial data used to licence Pfizer / Biontec vaccines until 2076, yup that is 55 years away -- I wonder why they did that ? Pfizer is well known for dodgy trial data and failing to reveal side effects, they have been fined over $3billion in last 20 years for malpractice.
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Do we know that you can't have Delta and Omicron at the same time? They are different viruses after all.
Second edit. It would appear that you can be infected with two different variants of covid at the same time.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/yes-you-can-contract-2-coronavirus-strains-at-the-same-time-what-to-know
Thanks. So can we now stop spouting the absolute nonsense that Omicron is nature's free vaccine please? Anyone saying that clearly does not understand much about virology.
The cases of co-infection are rarer than hens teeth, so not particularly valid / significant enough to guide government policies.
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Do we know that you can't have Delta and Omicron at the same time? They are different viruses after all.
Second edit. It would appear that you can be infected with two different variants of covid at the same time.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/yes-you-can-contract-2-coronavirus-strains-at-the-same-time-what-to-know
Thanks. So can we now stop spouting the absolute nonsense that Omicron is nature's free vaccine please? Anyone saying that clearly does not understand much about virology.
The cases of co-infection are rarer than hens teeth, so not particularly valid / significant enough to guide government policies.
Not quite but I agree very rare.
Who said anything about guiding government policies?
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Do we know that you can't have Delta and Omicron at the same time? They are different viruses after all.
Second edit. It would appear that you can be infected with two different variants of covid at the same time.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/yes-you-can-contract-2-coronavirus-strains-at-the-same-time-what-to-know
Thanks. So can we now stop spouting the absolute nonsense that Omicron is nature's free vaccine please? Anyone saying that clearly does not understand much about virology.
The cases of co-infection are rarer than hens teeth, so not particularly valid / significant enough to guide government policies.
Not quite but I agree very rare.
Who said anything about guiding government policies?
Not me. My only point is that you can not assume that 'Omicron will dispose Delta, and because it is milder, life is good'. First off, Omicron may not be milder, and secondly, you can still get Delta, even if you have had Omicron. In my analysis, that means it is still vital to get the vaccine and take other preventative measures, whether it is effective against Omicron or not.
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Well, that is the first death from Omicron here in the UK. Maybe it is not as mild as first reported.
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Well, that is the first death from Omicron here in the UK. Maybe it is not as mild as first reported.
All the papers I have seen said 'died with' the wording is important, 'died from' would have been worse ( but the government do not seem to know the difference when compiling deaths figures ). No mention of the Hospital or even the area patient was from . Anyone know ?
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No mention of the Hospital or even the area patient was from . Anyone know ?
They will not be able to release that for patient confidentiality issues.
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The headline was a patient has died 'with' Omicron, not because of Omicron.
How old ?
Vaccinated ?
Other health issues ?
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Don't panic Mr Mainwaring
Mr Johnson (not Cpl. Jones) appears to have started a bit of a panic reaction with his unscheduled broadcast on Sunday night - jammed websites, running out of tests both lateral flow and PCR in London and 6 hour queues for vaccinations.
Wonder if he thought to consult those in the front line before his announcements.
or if he consulted the NHS and army on more than doubling the rate of delivery of vaccinations while still remaining functional in the middle of winter.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/covid-cases-omicron-testing-latest-b1974766.html
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/dec/13/uk-covid-live-nhs-appointments-postponed-help-omicron-booster-jabs-boris-johnson-latest-updates
and from two weeks ago
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/29/dont-panic-government-covid-omicron-sketch
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The headline was a patient has died 'with' Omicron, not because of Omicron.
How old ?
Vaccinated ?
Other health issues ?
Don't know about patient who has died but those hospitalised :-
"We can confirm 10 people have been hospitalised with the Omicron variant in England; these individuals were diagnosed on or before admission.
The majority had received 2 doses of vaccination.
One individual diagnosed in hospital has sadly died."
UKHSA Chief Medical Adviser Susan Hopkins:
https://twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1470393604136968192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1470393604136968192%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2021%2Fdec%2F13%2Fuk-covid-live-nhs-appointments-postponed-help-omicron-booster-jabs-boris-johnson-latest-updates
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Last month the Federal Drug Administration ( USA ) went to court to get an order so that it can delay the release of the trial data used to licence Pfizer / Biontec vaccines until 2076, yup that is 55 years away -- I wonder why they did that ? Pfizer is well known for dodgy trial data and failing to reveal side effects, they have been fined over $3billion in last 20 years for malpractice.
Cite please.
I had a booster of Moderna this weekend, but haven't yet sprouted blonde curly hair, expanded in the chest area or started to sing about butterflies or someone called Jolene.
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Don't panic Mr Mainwaring
Mr Johnson (not Cpl. Jones) appears to have started a bit of a panic reaction with his unscheduled broadcast on Sunday night - jammed websites, running out of tests both lateral flow and PCR in London and 6 hour queues for vaccinations.
Wonder if he thought to consult those in the front line before his announcements.
or if he consulted the NHS and army on more than doubling the rate of delivery of vaccinations while still remaining functional in the middle of winter.
Mr Johnson does seem to have panicked yesterday. I think he really wanted stronger restrictions because that’s what’s worked before, but realised belatedly that (a) his own behaviour (partygate) meant that a large part of the Great British Public wouldn’t comply, and (b) - probably more importantly to him - his own party wouldn’t wear it (he faces a significant rebellion on Covid passports). So what does he do instead? A crash booster programme. Much was made yesterday of there being 19 days until the deadline, implying around 1M jabs/day. But 4 of those days are public holidays. So BoJo is relying on NHS staff who have been balls out over the last 18 months or so to lose some or all of their Christmas break in order to dig him out of his hole. I’m sure they’ll do their very best to meet the challenge, but it’s a sad reflection of his attitude that he thinks that’s an acceptable thing to do.
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Mr Johnson does seem to have panicked yesterday. I think he really wanted stronger restrictions because that’s what’s worked before, but realised belatedly that (a) his own behaviour (partygate) meant that a large part of the Great British Public wouldn’t comply, and (b) - probably more importantly to him - his own party wouldn’t wear it (he faces a significant rebellion on Covid passports).
There's also the little problem of any new restrictions having to be placed before parliament at the very least at the same time as they're announced to the public.
My suspicion will be that the next set will be announced whilst parliament is in recess.
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Mr Johnson does seem to have panicked yesterday. I think he really wanted stronger restrictions because that’s what’s worked before, but realised belatedly that (a) his own behaviour (partygate) meant that a large part of the Great British Public wouldn’t comply, and (b) - probably more importantly to him - his own party wouldn’t wear it (he faces a significant rebellion on Covid passports).
There's also the little problem of any new restrictions having to be placed before parliament at the very least at the same time as they're announced to the public.
My suspicion will be that the next set will be announced whilst parliament is in recess.
Before the vote in parliament even taken place ( the vote is today ) there are ads and advice on Alexa about the new rules - some zealous civil dogsbody has jumped the gun, there are over 80 Tories and at least 20 opposition MPs going to vote against it, and even 10 parliamentary private secretaries , ( who will have to resign from that position if they vote against government ). The reason MPs are opposed to this plan B is that they fear it is the thin end of 'plan C ' wedge in the new year.
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The headline was a patient has died 'with' Omicron, not because of Omicron.
How old ?
Vaccinated ?
Other health issues ?
Don't know about patient who has died but those hospitalised :-
"We can confirm 10 people have been hospitalised with the Omicron variant in England; these individuals were diagnosed on or before admission.
The majority had received 2 doses of vaccination.
One individual diagnosed in hospital has sadly died."
UKHSA Chief Medical Adviser Susan Hopkins:
https://twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1470393604136968192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1470393604136968192%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2021%2Fdec%2F13%2Fuk-covid-live-nhs-appointments-postponed-help-omicron-booster-jabs-boris-johnson-latest-updates
Maybe the patient 'diagnosed while in hospital' was in for something serious anyway, and as with lots of other caught the virus while in hospital.. I am very sceptical of government these days, a death 'from' or 'with' Covid seem to be treated the same in our released data, but the ongoing stat that vast majority of deaths are over 85's who are already very ill with other stuff seems to point to 'dying with' covid rather that directly 'from' it.
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I don't think he wants to impose tougher sanctions until he is forced into it.
As he has done previously he is waiting until the sh1t actually hits the fan before taking any action instead of planning ahead.
So BoJo is relying on NHS staff who have been balls out over the last 18 months or so to lose some or all of their Christmas break in order to dig him out of his hole. I’m sure they’ll do their very best to meet the challenge, but it’s a sad reflection of his attitude that he thinks that’s an acceptable thing to do.
+1
My suspicion will be that the next set will be announced whilst parliament is in recess.
But Boris will be on holiday by then.
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The reason MPs are opposed to this plan B is that they fear it is the thin end of 'plan C ' wedge in the new year.
If they had adopted plan B (which was not really onerous) earlier they could have at least delayed implementing plan C.
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In the words of Glenn Reynolds: I'll believe there's a crisis when the people telling me there's a crisis behave like there's a crisis.
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My suspicion will be that the next set will be announced whilst parliament is in recess.
But Boris will be on holiday by then.
My guess is Friday evening, like the last time (March 2020).
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In the words of Glenn Reynolds: I'll believe there's a crisis when the people telling me there's a crisis behave like there's a crisis.
When in retreat, the bravest people are at the back.
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In the words of Glenn Reynolds: I'll believe there's a crisis when the people telling me there's a crisis behave like there's a crisis.
But there is no crisis for Johnson and his disaster capitalist friends. To them it is seen as an opportunity to make money.
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/covid-government-contracts-handed-out-like-sweeties-to-people-with-friends-in-high-places-218181/
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/who-profits-coronavirus-government-spending-boom_uk_5f0890c0c5b63a72c3413817
Edit added second link
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You will of course recognise the very careful selection of wording in Johnson's statements. Not only does he not apologise for what has been done but for the effects of doing it and the impression it has given, he promises the "offer" of boosters not the delivery of them.
Weasel words ................... weasel man.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_word
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But there is no crisis for Johnson and his disaster capitalist friends. To them it is seen as an opportunity to make money.
The ones stoking the panic are the ones making money, it is largely a fabricated 'disaster' ... and people are falling for it, who said there was no money to be made from sheep? I would like to know how many politicans and their tame advisors and experts either work for big pharma companies, have links with them or receive funding from them. Just like any expert who disagrees with MMCC theory gets 'cancelled' from funding and media, are the covid crisis experts worried that the same will happen to them unless they toe the line ?
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. ... and people are falling for it, who said there was no money to be made from sheep? ......
Never a truer word was said, as demonstrated by the way people have voted in several instances over the recent few years. Tell people what they want to hear and they'll vote for it regardless of who is saying it or whether it's actually true. The main trick is to point a finger at someone else and blame them for all the ills, vote for me and I'll sort them out for you.
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Never a truer word was said, as demonstrated by the way people have voted in several instances over the recent few years.
Years or decades !
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But there is no crisis for Johnson and his disaster capitalist friends. To them it is seen as an opportunity to make money.
I would like to know how many politicans and their tame advisors and experts either work for big pharma companies, have links with them or receive funding from them.
I would imagine that if there is money to be made there that many of the (dis)honourable gentlemen and ladies behind Mr Johnson in the HOC will be heavily invested.. ... and people are falling for it, who said there was no money to be made from sheep? ......
Tell people what they want to hear and they'll vote for it regardless of who is saying it or whether it's actually true. The main trick is to point a finger at someone else and blame them for all the ills, vote for me and I'll sort them out for you.
Exactly. When will people learn?
https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-broken-manifesto-election-promises-2019-11?r=US&IR=T
and there will be many more broken promises since then.
https://www.bing.com/search?pc=W018&q=broken+promises+Boris+Johnson&form=BWMFDF
Let's get back to the virus.
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To be fair, the manifesto was written before Covid.
Finances must be extremely stretched now.
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[ The main trick is to point a finger at someone else and blame them for all the ills, vote for me and I'll sort them out for you.
That's what Labour have been doing for the last few years, always having a dig at the government, but they don't say what they would do, given the same circumstances.
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We're getting way off topic.
Big difference in attitudes north and south of border again.
Nicola Sturgeon has asked people in Scotland to limit their socialising to three households before and after Christmas to help combat the spread of the omicron Covid variant.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/omicron-household-mixing-scotland-sturgeon-b1975829.html
Bars and pubs with dance floors will be required to use Covid passes – but only after 1am
Bars and pubs with dancefloors will be required to check people’s Covid passes, but only after 1am, according to new regulations for England published by the government.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-passes-bars-pubs-dance-floors-b1975758.html
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[ The main trick is to point a finger at someone else and blame them for all the ills, vote for me and I'll sort them out for you.
That's what Labour have been doing for the last few years, always having a dig at the government, but they don't say what they would do, given the same circumstances.
Labour have a tailors dummy for a leader, and how can you lead a party with so many factions that are pulling in different directions ? Political parties with large splits in them are not popular with voters.
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You will of course recognise the very careful selection of wording in Johnson's statements. Not only does he not apologise for what has been done but for the effects of doing it and the impression it has given, he promises the "offer" of boosters not the delivery of them.
Weasel words ................... weasel man.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_word
To be fair to the buffoon, he can only offer them. It's up to us to take up that offer. They're not forcing it on us yet. I had my booster today, no fuss, no queue, just quiet professionalism and an aching arm, and I think the onset of mild side effects already (Moderna).
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Thanks for getting back on topic.
Omicron will cause ‘significant’ rise in hospital admissions, Chris Whitty warns
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/chris-whitty-downing-street-omicron-south-africa-nhs-england-b1975818.html
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[ The main trick is to point a finger at someone else and blame them for all the ills, vote for me and I'll sort them out for you.
That's what Labour have been doing for the last few years, always having a dig at the government, but they don't say what they would do, given the same circumstances.
Why on earth should they? The government doesn't need free advice.
Of course, one could say "The European Union is a problem. We should leave, and then we can sort out everything." This was the original disaster capitalist objective. That COVID came along was a big bonus to them.
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I know I'm going to get some flak but .......
Reading all the above posts it's fairly clear who supports Tory and who supports Labour, or another party.
No matter what the issue, do a Starmer and pick out as many issues as possible whether good or bad and disagree with everything.
Reminiscent of every budget. No matter what, complain about everything to try and score points. Give them no slack for trying under very difficult circumstances.
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I know I'm going to get some flak but .......
Reading all the above posts it's fairly clear who supports Tory and who supports Labour, or another party.
This topic is not about who supports which party.
Viruses do not support parties (or nations.)
Edit added or nations
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Viruses do not support parties.
Viruses love parties, plenty on opportunities to mingle with potential hosts.....
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Viruses do not support parties.
Viruses love parties, plenty on opportunities to mingle with potential hosts.....
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/extraordinary-image-shows-raucous-xmas-25699183
Sorry. Couldn't resist it.
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Let's get back on topic
"A UK coronavirus expert has said the virus is so widespread in London that those with cold symptoms are more likely to have Covid than a cold.
Prof Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London, who runs the Zoe Covid symptom app, told the BBC’s Today programme: "
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/dec/15/covid-news-live-omicron-probably-present-in-most-countries-us-death-toll-passes-800000
Cobra expected to meet later
A government source has told the BBC they expect a meeting of the government's emergency committee, Cobra, this afternoon with the devolved administrations - Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland governments.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59664383
Last edit. added bbc link
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Let's get back on topic
"A UK coronavirus expert has said the virus is so widespread in London that those with cold symptoms are more likely to have Covid than a cold.
Prof Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London, who runs the Zoe Covid symptom app, told the BBC’s Today programme: "
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/dec/15/covid-news-live-omicron-probably-present-in-most-countries-us-death-toll-passes-800000
The Telegraph/Times/BBC have an article claiming one third of Londoners are unvaccinated.
If true, no wonder it is spreading so rapidly.
"Westminster and Camden, which had the lowest rates in the country, reported that nearly a third of adults had not yet received their first jab. In Islington, just 73% of adults had been vaccinated, while in Hackney and City of London the rate was 74%. Nottingham (73%) was the only non-London area among the worst five councils."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/06/third-adults-unvaccinated-parts-london-data-shows-covid
If true the Government should be locking down London. (And they have know since before August and done - nothing effective.)
But that would never do ...
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I'm in West London and my local figures are pathetic :
1st dose 70.2%
2nd dose 61.5%
3rd dose 23.2%, but rising.
I know of 2 neighbours who are unvaccinated. One doesn't care, 65 and lives alone, and the other, 35, is being advised by Dr Whatsapp.
However, for some odd reason, looking at the daily dashboard, my figures are lower than the surrounding area.
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Best steer clear then.
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Thanks
I do. A cars length outdoors :)
At least I'm triple jabbed.
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"Westminster and Camden, which had the lowest rates in the country, reported that nearly a third of adults had not yet received their first jab. In Islington, just 73% of adults had been vaccinated, while in Hackney and City of London the rate was 74%. Nottingham (73%) was the only non-London area among the worst five councils."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/06/third-adults-unvaccinated-parts-london-data-shows-covid
If true the Government should be locking down London. (And they have know since before August and done - nothing effective.)
But that would never do ...
No point locking down London now.
The cat's well out of the bag.
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The cat's well out of the bag.
And probably amongst the pigeons in Trafalgar Square ;)
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The Trafalgar Square pigeons were given their marching orders by Ken Livingstone almost 20 years ago now. Hefty fine for feeding them plus an early hawk patrol to deter them.
Oxford Street still has regular hawk patrols to deter them.
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The Trafalgar Square pigeons were given their marching orders by Ken Livingstone almost 20 years ago now. Hefty fine for feeding them plus an early hawk patrol to deter them.
Oxford Street still has regular hawk patrols to deter them.
Most councils deter Pigeons now I am glad to say, pigeons are just a stomach connected to an ar se that can fly.
In one small town by us the cobbled square was slippery with pigeon dung after even the slightest rain, and under some railway bridges the footpath is thick with the stuff if nets have not been installed to keep them out.
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"NHS only warned about PM's new booster jabs target at weekend, MPs told
Q: When did you find out about the PM’s plan (announced on Sunday) to bring forward the target for giving all adults a booster jab?
Pritchard said they had discussions about it with government over the weekend."
Forward planning not Johnson's strong point.
Websites crashing through demand.
Running out of tests .
Long queues
1 million vaccinations per day in December. (including Christmas holidays)
Previous best 600k per day
Weather. It's OK having half mile long queues yesterday but what happens in freezing cold or p1ssing rain.
what happens if they miss targets one day?
Day one Target 1million Achieved say500k
Day two Target 500k + 1million Achieved say 600k
Day three Target900k + 1million Achieved say 700k
Day four Target1.2 million +1million
It's a good job he had the get out clause of "offer"
Logistics of vaccination have been great so far but that's down mostly to NHS and army.
Now he's making even greater demands of them at the busiest time of year.
Hospitals needing reorganised for influx of covid patients and cover vaccinators.
I had a letter from NHS this morning saying I had been removed from a waiting list. ( fortunately just for a checkup but there must be thousands waiting for operations) and it'll not be long before the Telegraph, Mail and Express start up their blame the NHS campaigns.
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More bad London news
https://www.londonworld.com/health/coronavirus/covid-tests-swathes-of-london-sending-fewer-than-one-in-10-pcr-test-to-check-for-omicron-3493221
and how many are not doing lateral flow tests or ignoring positive results in order to go to work?
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Knowing London and it's demographic I'm not in the slightest bit surprised.
I bet it's happening in other areas as well. Look at what was revealed in Leicester during the first lockdown. Back street sweatshops. Come to work or get sacked.
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Here we go again.
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I've had all three jabs, but I will be brutally honest. If I had to queue for five hours for a jab I wouldn't bother.
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My wife and I have had three jabs without ever having to queue. The last jab was given in a pharmacy. We just turned up and got done straight away. After that I asked the pharmacist if we needed to wait for a while before having our Flu jabs; no he said we could have them straight away, he gave us our Flu jab as we leant over the shop counter!
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Reading all the above posts it's fairly clear who supports Tory and who supports Labour, or another party.
Just to be clear, I do not support any political party, happy to be critical of any politician if they deserve criticism.
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Reading all the above posts it's fairly clear who supports Tory and who supports Labour, or another party.
Just to be clear, I do not support any political party, happy to be critical of any politician if they deserve criticism.
Me neither but I must admit to having a chuckle at this.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/desmond-swayne-vaccine-passports-omicron-b1976083.html
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On the other hand
Good advice from this bloke.
https://www.channel4.com/news/government-should-ask-public-to-limit-contact-now-behavioural-scientist-says
Polite criticism of government's mixed messaging but get vaccinated and avoid unnecessary contact.
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It was interesting to watch the presentation today. Witty basically said everything he could see coming was bad. Johnson said isn't the vaccination programme going well. Slightly different emphasis, probably both more or less right.
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Here is a more optimistic analysis than most.
https://justgivemepositivenews.com/home/fts-data-specialist-john-burn-murdoch-analyses-the-data-on-what-we-can-expect-with-omicron/
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It was interesting to watch the presentation today. Witty basically said everything he could see coming was bad. Johnson said isn't the vaccination programme going well. Slightly different emphasis, probably both more or less right.
Johnson says "get jabbed"
Whitty says " avoid unnecessary social contact as well"
"Reduce socialising to save Christmas, Whitty says as omicron fears hit hospitality sector"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/covid-omicron-symptoms-vaccines-latest-b1977062.html
I saw one of the covid experts giving a Q& A with Lynda Bauld on breakfast tv yesterday
His analogy was not the usual " race with the virus" one but a see-saw with the virus on one end.
Vaccination was the biggest thing we could counterbalance it with but anything else --Face masks, avoiding crowds, social distancing, ventilation, good hygiene, testing and isolating would help to tip the balance.
BBC Update
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59676569
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Here is a more optimistic analysis than most.
https://justgivemepositivenews.com/home/fts-data-specialist-john-burn-murdoch-analyses-the-data-on-what-we-can-expect-with-omicron/
Yes BUT:
He does not mention:
1. Average population age in SA at 26years is much lower than UK 41years. So less severe cases with complications.
2. UK winter weather. SA has coldish winters but drier.
3. There are 5 million UK un-vaccinated - a LOT in London .
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Here is a more optimistic analysis than most.
https://justgivemepositivenews.com/home/fts-data-specialist-john-burn-murdoch-analyses-the-data-on-what-we-can-expect-with-omicron/
Yes BUT:
He does not mention:
1. Average population age in SA at 26years is much lower than UK 41years. So less severe cases with complications.
2. UK winter weather. SA has coldish winters but drier.
3. There are 5 million UK un-vaccinated - a LOT in London .
Thanks for reading.
Maybe that's why he is more optimistic.
Whitty is on TV just now answering questions from MPs.
Scary thing is that a lot of the questions are incredibly naive.
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I do get the impression nobody really knows yet so a lot is guesswork.
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I do get the impression nobody really knows yet so a lot is guesswork.
Nobody really knows yet but what the scientists are doing is not guesswork.
They need time to gain data to refine their estimates ---- hence the need for caution.
This sort of sh1t headline in the Evening Standard doesn't help.
Tory MPs: Whitty running the show and creating ‘public health socialist state
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslondon/tory-mps-whitty-running-the-show-and-creating-e2-80-98public-health-socialist-state-e2-80-99/ar-AARS6dj?ocid=uxbndlbing
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I do get the impression nobody really knows yet so a lot is guesswork.
Nobody really knows yet but what the scientists are doing is not guesswork.
They need time to gain data to refine their estimates ---- hence the need for caution.
I did dome sums and tried to calculate the likely deaths based on deaths being 10 -30% of the Delta levels. My sums suggested infections would be 250k a day by Christmas: based on current levels I was being far too cautious.. Such high levels are unsustainable: the virus will run out of people to infect.
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Today's dashboard will be interesting.
Will it be significantly above yesterday's 80k (or 800k as Boris announced it)
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Today's dashboard will be interesting.
Will it be significantly above yesterday's 80k (or 800k as Boris announced it)
Mu guess? 100 - 110k.
But they will soon be running out of test kits.
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Well almost 2 years after a fair few 'lay' members of public thought this, the 'experts' are now coming round to the idea... An engineered virus, with funds from USA and Fauci, which leaked from Wuhan lab due to pathetic bio-security.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1536643/wuhan-lab-leak-origin-theory-mps-china-who-covid-coronavirus-bat
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Seems the tame experts are still guessing, otherwise we have to draw the conclusion that they are deliberately misleading the public ( telling porkies ). We are in danger of 'protecting Delta' if we fail to let Omicron become dominant and displace it... and Delta is the bad guy.. Government policies should not interfere with the natural evolution of a virus, which is to become more infectious but less virulent. When a lot less people get sick with Omicron I bet Pfizer will claim the credit, even though they are selling gullible politicians a vaccine for a virus strain that does not need one, and looking forward to doing the same well into next year.
'Whitty, however, implanted a new idea in our heads: that Omicron is running almost as a parallel epidemic – that Delta is not going away, that Omicron is ‘building on’ it. But this is not what appears to have happened in South Africa, where the data presented by Discovery Heath and the South African Medical Research Council on Tuesday clearly shows Omicron displacing Delta in that country – to the point that Delta is now an endangered species. There is no parallel epidemic going on there.'
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Seems the tame experts are still guessing, otherwise we have to draw the conclusion that they are deliberately misleading the public ( telling porkies ). We are in danger of 'protecting Delta' if we fail to let Omicron become dominant and displace it... and Delta is the bad guy.. Government policies should not interfere with the natural evolution of a virus, which is to become more infectious but less virulent. When a lot less people get sick with Omicron I bet Pfizer will claim the credit, even though they are selling gullible politicians a vaccine for a virus strain that does not need one, and looking forward to doing the same well into next year.
Good job neither you nor the source of your article is the Chief Medical Officer.
'Whitty, however, implanted a new idea in our heads: that Omicron is running almost as a parallel epidemic – that Delta is not going away, that Omicron is ‘building on’ it. But this is not what appears to have happened in South Africa, where the data presented by Discovery Heath and the South African Medical Research Council on Tuesday clearly shows Omicron displacing Delta in that country – to the point that Delta is now an endangered species. There is no parallel epidemic going on there.'
What is your source here? The idea is unfounded and just presented to cause confusion.
The best estimates initially were based on the South African experience .
That was all they could base it on but as Maaf pointed out there is difference in age of population, percentage of vaccinated population, percentage of previously infected population summer vs winter.
Whitty is right in saying that there are at present two epidemics going on here.
As your article points out omicron will displace delta as the dominant variant but this will not affect the increase in the overall number of cases because those suscptible to the delta variant will also be susceptible to omicron as well as the people previously immune to dellta but susceptible to omicron.
The South African outbreak of omicron is several weeks ahead of ours so already omicron has effectively displaced delta completely.
I did dome sums and tried to calculate the likely deaths based on deaths being 10 -30% of the Delta levels. My sums suggested infections would be 250k a day by Christmas: based on current levels I was being far too cautious.. Such high levels are unsustainable: the virus will run out of people to infect.
Yes the doubling time will increase (or R decrease) as the number of suscptible people decreases through vaccination, infection, or death but it is as yet unknown when this will become significant.
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That Omicron running parallel with Delta is what Whitty said during yesterday's 17:00 press briefing.
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That Omicron running parallel with Delta is what Whitty said during yesterday's 17:00 press briefing.
Yes. He is right. At the moment it is as if we are facing two epidemics at the same time but as omicron spreads faster than delta it is becoming the more dominant variant.
Cases of omicron are expected to outnumber those of delta tomorrow in Scotland.
At some stage it will completely displace delta just as delta replaced previous variants.
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88k new cases.
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88k new cases.
In reality cases mean nothing - but it is all the media focus on ( because cases can be real scary numbers ), and testing has been increased by about 12% so more cases bound to be found. Unless you test everyone every day you do not know how many cases there are, you only know how many cases amongst the people tested, so we never knew how many Delta cases there were from one day to the next. The only thing that matters is hospitalisations, and how long people have to stay in hospital, if they need oxygen or mechanical breathing aid like a ventilator, and of course if they die 'from covid' and not 'with covid'. Quite a few people die from common cold, some people are already that sick with multiple other conditions that a cold can be 'the last straw' and knock them over.
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The more cases the more hospitilisations.
There will be more cases than there are confirmed cases. In fact there might well be many more. Therefore there are potentially many more hospitalisations.
Some people might not be submitting samples, especially if there symptoms are mild perhaps out of necessity to earn money or to selfishly go to some entertainment.
The scientists know that it spreads much faster than delta and will out compete it.
It is not yet known how serious the disease is ie how the number of cases relates to the number of hospitalisation and ultimately deaths.
If it is much less severe than delta and omicron replaces delta then that would be great but if it is only slightly less severe
the extra numbers of cases would more than compensate for the lesser severity and the NHS might well be overwhelmed.
Until the scientists know, it is best to err on the side of caution.
The more the number of cases can be kept downn by minimising contacts , mask wearing ventilation etc.the longer it gives for the scientists to find out and for the vaccinators to inject more people.
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The NHS could be overwhelmed due to the numbers of frontline staff testing positive, never mind a heavier caseload.
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What I've also wondered is how many are actual new cases.
Could some be the same people from the previous day who have tested again ?
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What I've also wondered is how many are actual new cases.
Could some be the same people from the previous day who have tested again ?
Once you have been tested and found positive the system won't allow another test result unless it is a negative result.
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Omicron is now the dominant variant in Scotland.
Nicola Sturgeon urges people to consider their priorities in the run up to Christmas. Is the football or the party worth the family Christmas dinner?
Pledges £100m to support businesses but calls for UK government to step up.
"The First Minister announced an extra £100 million of funding for businesses earlier this week.
At a coronavirus briefing, she confirmed £66m of this will go to the hospitality sector, £8m to the food and drink supply chain, £20m to the culture sector, £3m to the wedding sector, and £3m to the "worst affected parts of tourism".
Ms Sturgeon said this support was "significant" but conceded it would not "fully compensate these sectors for the impact they're suffering right now".
She said: "The UK Government has to get its finger out. It has to step up and it has to provide this support."
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-tells-uk-government-to-get-its-finger-out-as-she-provides-funding-breakdown-3498954
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/16/boris-johnson-go-out-catch-covid-ignore-the-science-or-trust-in-chris-whitty
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59701008
Edit added BBC link
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This week's Indie Sage Omicron update from about 3min.--23min. Scary biscuits.
Looks like we're heading into another crisis while Boris delays again.
See the main points on the slides.
"We cannot prevent infections that have happened this week but we can prevent them next week.
Doing so would save lives, protect the NHS and enable people to have a much safer Christmas."
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The NHS could be overwhelmed due to the numbers of frontline staff testing positive, never mind a heavier caseload.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/17/hospitals-in-england-draw-up-plans-for-significant-covid-staff-absences
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If this new variant is that transmissible then before and after they get dressed up has to be an issue.
There have been lots of earlier reports of patients catching covid in distant hospital wards so it does travel.
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Sage agreeing with Indie Sage.
Covid: More measures needed to limit hospitalisations - Sage scientists
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59707252
"According to those leaked minutes, the Sage advisers say that without intervention measures beyond the Plan B rules currently in place, modelling indicates that hospital admissions could peak at at least 3,000 a day in England."
More measures are needed even if it upsets Tory back benchers and the gutter press.
What is needed is more compensation for small businesses.
Scotland and Wales want to implement stronger measures but are being restricted by lack of funds from UK government to compensate businesses.
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The source of the article is Bank of England putting interest rates up...
Could that not be something to do with the B word instead?
There is now talk of a Circuit Breaker in the New Year. Too late, of course, but heaven forfend anyone disrupt Christmas again.
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The source of the article is Bank of England putting interest rates up...
Could that not be something to do with the B word instead?
There is now talk of a Circuit Breaker in the New Year. Too late, of course, but heaven forfend anyone disrupt Christmas again.
Yep.
Even better would have been 3 weeks ago when even less restrictions would have been necessary. Somebody needs to try to explain exponential growth to these eejits.
They have learned SFA in the last two years.
There's been no progress in "learning to live with it" just "ignore it and hope it will go away"
The later they take action the worse it is for health and for the economy since the restrictons need to be more severe and longer lasting.
3 weeks ~10 X2day doublings ~ 1000 times worse
The money they wasted on contracts for chums could have been invested in better ventilation for schools and work places and a decent system of sick pay so that people are not forced into work when sick.
Edit added at 2.30pm
Circuit-breaker lockdown needed before Christmas, expert warns
The most effective way to stop the spread of the Omicron variant of coronavirus would be to have a circuit-breaker lockdown before Christmas, a leading government adviser has said.
Stephen Reicher, professor of social psychology at the University of St Andrews and member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said it was clear Plan B measures alone would not be enough to stop the spiralling numbers of cases.
Prof Reicher, who was speaking to Times Radio in a personal capacity, said the time to act was now.
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Minutes of the Sage meeting on Thursday 16th December have now been released to the public. (5minute read)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-99-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-16-december-2021/sage-99-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-16-december-2021
Situation update
"1. The number of Omicron infections in the UK has continued to increase very rapidly with the doubling time in England currently around 2 days. This is faster than the growth rate seen in March 2020.
2. In England it is almost certain that there are now hundreds of thousands of new Omicron infections per day. Levels of Omicron infection are currently highest in London. Reported numbers of confirmed and suspected Omicron infections will only be a small proportion of the actual number. This is because there are lags between people becoming infected, being tested, and getting test results (data lags matter most when growth is very fast); not all tests allow the variant to be identified; and not everyone who is infected is tested.
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8. The earlier interventions happen the greater the effect they will have (high confidence). This may also mean that they can be kept in place for a shorter duration. Illustrative scenarios from SPI-M-O suggest that measures equivalent to those in place after Step 2 or Step 1 of the Roadmap in England, if enacted early enough, could substantially reduce the potential peak in hospital admissions and infections compared with Plan B alone (medium confidence). The timing of such measures is crucial. Delaying until 2022 would greatly reduce the effectiveness of such interventions and make it is less likely that these would prevent considerable pressure on health and care settings."
Take care everybody.
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Sky have just reported that SA are still saying that their peak was high but short and it does seem milder than Delta.
My greater London area on the gov dashboard is showing high infection but zero deaths and low hospital admission.
Time will tell.
Published: 14:22, 18 December 2021 | Updated: 18:22, 18 December 2021 :
The majority of new cases today are still from Gauteng (28 per cent), followed by KwaZulu-Natal (25 per cent).
Yesterday, the country’s health minister Joe Phaahla revealed 1.7 per cent of Covid cases went on to be hospitalized during the second week of the current wave. For comparison, he said the equivalent figure was 19 per cent in the second week of South Africa’s Delta crisis.
Higher immunity levels due to vaccination and previous infection now than when Delta took off are thought to be behind the lower hospitalization rate.
But Phaahla suggested Omicron may have evolved to be milder, bolstering claims made by doctors treating patients on the frontline.
Public health official Wassila Jassat, who also attended the conference, said South Africa had fewer patients needing oxygen now than when Delta emerged. She added that patients were hospitalized for a shorter period.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10323991/Omicron-Covid-cases-South-African-ground-zero-peaked-6-December.html
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Pfizer hates Omicron - their profits will drop off a cliff come new year. They are still passing brown envelopes to the tame experts to keep telling the sheep scary stories though...
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Pfizer hates Omicron - their profits will drop off a cliff come new year. They are still passing brown envelopes to the tame experts to keep telling the sheep scary stories though...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?isci=010702
and rising fast.
Unfortunately I don't think Pfizer profits are in any danger.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/16/boris-johnson-go-out-catch-covid-ignore-the-science-or-trust-in-chris-whitty
Edit Added Worldometer link.
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118 Scotrail services had to be cancelled today because of a shortage of staff due to having Covid or self-isolating.
Many Premier League footballers have decided not to get vaccinated. The FA should say, "No jab, no play".
Germany has very few identified cases of Omicron but they have decided to come down hard on UK travellers and their own unvaccinated.
Singapore has mandated that the unvaccinated will have to pay for their own medical care if they are hospitalised with Covid
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Very early days still but deaths and hospitalisations not following infections.
SA reporting still the same there.
Here's hoping.
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Very early days still but deaths and hospitalisations not following infections.
SA reporting still the same there.
Here's hoping.
You are Boris Johnson and I claim my £5
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Very early days still but deaths and hospitalisations not following infections.
SA reporting still the same there.
Here's hoping.
104 hospitalisations and 10 deaths per The Independent.
(Which given Omicron was first detected in two cases on 27th November in the UK - 3 and a half weeks ago - is rather scary.)
Remember the lags:
infection to hospitalisation
hospitalisation to death
recording death due to Covid
are around 2 to 4 weeks.
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Very early days still but deaths and hospitalisations not following infections.
SA reporting still the same there.
Here's hoping.
On second thoughts, you are not doing anybody any harm by waiting with crossed fingers to see what happens.
Mr Johnson on the other hand could potentially be doing a lot of harm with his delaying and indecision.
He is no longer following the Science.
See Point 8 from the Sage meeting.
"8. The earlier interventions happen the greater the effect they will have (high confidence). This may also mean that they can be kept in place for a shorter duration. Illustrative scenarios from SPI-M-O suggest that measures equivalent to those in place after Step 2 or Step 1 of the Roadmap in England, if enacted early enough, could substantially reduce the potential peak in hospital admissions and infections compared with Plan B alone (medium confidence). The timing of such measures is crucial. Delaying until 2022 would greatly reduce the effectiveness of such interventions and make it is less likely that these would prevent considerable pressure on health and care settings."
He's not doing the economy any good either with the uncertainty he is causing just now or, if he delays restrictions, any future restrictions or lockdowns will have to be imposed for a longer time.
It seems Mr Johnson is more afraid of his back-bench nutters than the consequences of ignoring his scientific advisers.
https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/news-analysis/covid-vaccine-omicron-boris-johnson-b1979678.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59733893
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I'm basing my optimism on my local area via the dashboard.
I remember a year ago when Delta took off and so did my local figures, quite rapidly. Deaths and hospital rose alongside infections
Yesterday, my local data was 479 new infections (3015 over last 7 days), zero deaths and 1 person admitted to hospital.
I admit I could very well be wrong, as usual, but so far so good near me (Greater London) :)
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I'm basing my optimism on my local area via the dashboard.
I remember a year ago when Delta took off and so did my local figures, quite rapidly. Deaths and hospital rose alongside infections
Yesterday, my local data was 479 new infections (3015 over last 7 days), zero deaths and 1 person admitted to hospital.
I admit I could very well be wrong, as usual, but so far so good near me (Greater London) :)
Stay safe.
There is a lag between infection and hospitalisation and death.
At the moment the cases are mainly amongst the young. (scroll down to Demographics) many of whom will not be fully vaccinated but will have better immune systems.
The older age groups are still more vulnerable to hospitalisations and deaths.
Last year there were a lot fewer vaccinated people.
There will be a lot of mixing between age groups at Christmas.
Johnson is taking a big gamble.
https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases
Take care.
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Johnson is taking a big gamble.
The leader of a country has to be a bit of a gambler, and we cannot let this man-made virus continue to control our lives and trash our economy.... If the cost is worked out as '£'s per life 'saved' the figures are eye-watering.... and at the same time you have to add how much economic output has been cut... Those figures do not make pleasant reading.
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Johnson is taking a big gamble.
The leader of a country has to be a bit of a gambler, and we cannot let this man-made virus continue to control our lives and trash our economy.... If the cost is worked out as '£'s per life 'saved' the figures are eye-watering.... and at the same time you have to add how much economic output has been cut... Those figures do not make pleasant reading.
Better safe than sorry for me ---both with lives and with money.
Don't want to get too political but
Johnson doesn't seem to be leading but following opinion polls -- that's the data he is following.
He has repeatedly cost the country both in lives and money by delaying restrictions and removing them early.
This idea of economy versus lives is a false one. The economy can't thrive if the population is sick or isolating
At the moment the country is lacking in guidance again. People need clarity on what is allowed or not and businesses need to know what to expect so that they can plan ahead and have compensation when the business is not viable.
[link removed by Admin]
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59736716
Edit added Links
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Is it Boris or Carrie that's making the decisions ;D
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Is it Boris or Carrie that's making the decisions ;D
Or neither.
Government inaction ‘staggering and deeply frustrating’, warns leading expert
Dr Jeremy Farrar, director of Wellcome and a former member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), has said the UK is now entering a “new and troubling phase of this pandemic”.
In a warning to the prime minister, he said: “We cannot afford to cross our fingers and hope this crisis blows over. As we have learned from the very beginning of this pandemic, it’s better to act sooner than later.
“It is essential that governments act swiftly and accordingly, paying close attention to the data. South Africa and the UK may be at the forefront of this new wave but this will affect every country.
“To bring Omicron under any form of control, it’s critical that transmission is slowed. If not, we could see profound impacts on health systems but also across sectors such as education, hospitality, public transport, police and essential national infrastructure as infections prevent people from working. No country can afford to think they are an exception.”
Dr Farrar said it was “staggering and deeply frustrating” that two years into the pandemic “governments are still not anticipating events and acting early or working together anywhere near the scale that is required”.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-christmas-circuit-breaker-lockdown-latest-b1979895.html?page=2#post-533318
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-christmas-circuit-breaker-lockdown-latest-b1979895.html
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If this report https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-immunity-antibody-omicron-b1979528.html then we who have been jabbed would benefit from then catching a dose of the virus.
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If this report https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-immunity-antibody-omicron-b1979528.html then we who have been jabbed would benefit from then catching a dose of the virus.
I think I'll wait till a lot more than 26 people have been researched although I suppose the least worst time to catch covid would be when just newly boosted.
https://www.livescience.com/breakthrough-covid-infection-immunity-boost
Edit added link
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If the cost is worked out as '£'s per life 'saved' the figures are eye-watering.
Just how much do you reckon a human life is worth?
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Today I filled up my fuel tank. They are talking about infrastructure issues from Omicron, including a possible lack of delivery drivers, so unlike Boris, I decided to get ahead of the curve.
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Today I filled up my fuel tank. They are talking about infrastructure issues from Omicron, including a possible lack of delivery drivers, so unlike Boris, I decided to get ahead of the curve.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2021/dec/21/ben-jennings-on-boris-johnsons-christmas-rules-cartoon
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/21/no-new-covid-measures-before-christmas-boris-johnson-confirms
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/sturgeon-imposes-restrictions-scotland-boxing-140100523.html
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/everything-mark-drakeford-just-said-as-he-announces-strict-new-covid-measures-for-wales/ar-AAS3lu6?ocid=uxbndlbing
Edit updated Drakeford link
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If the cost is worked out as '£'s per life 'saved' the figures are eye-watering.
Just how much do you reckon a human life is worth?
Ask a hospital ethics committee or NICE, they put a price on cost of medical treatment allowed every single day.... It pays to remember that 95% of covid deaths in UK have been in the over 60's, and 75% in people over 85 ( life expectancy in UK is about 83 ). The typical patient is already chronically ill with 2 or more conditions that could kill them at any time. Obesity is also a major cause of death in covid victims under 60. You than have to compare this with the damage to other patients with undiagnosed conditions in younger patients like cancers, missed operations etc, as well as the damage to the economy, job prospects for younger people.
https://www.healthguideinfo.com/health-informatics/p6185/
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I genuinely don't understand the argument about damage to other people in respect of undiagnosed cancers etc. The reason cancers are being undiagnosed is not because of anti covid measures, it's because of Covid overwhelming the health services. Keep people out of hospital and there is more space and resource to devote to other ailments.
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........ with the majority of hospital admissions being reported as the unvaccinated.
If so, do they realise what they are voluntarily doing to other people and families.
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........ with the majority of hospital admissions being reported as the unvaccinated.
If so, do they realise what they are voluntarily doing to other people and families.
I searched for cold hard statistics on this.
Lots of claims about"90%" etc.
NO proof from any definitive study.
I am not saying it is untrue but as the published study I read said 40 odd % of all patients with Covid in hospital were unvaccinated, then I am dubious.
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Studies on AZ and Pfizer / Moderna vaccines suggest that the Adenovirus AZ vaccine give much longer lasting T cell protection compared to short term antibody protection given by mRNA vaccines - that may well explain why Sarah Gilbert of Oxford university said boosters not needed for people who had AZ but Pfizer say one 'booster' jab every 3 months needed.
mRNA vaccines like Moderna and Pfizer give short lived antibodies…. But weak T cell immunity, T cell immunity lasts a lot longer.
https://theconversation.com/does-astrazenecas-covid-vaccine-give-longer-lasting-protection-than-mrna-shots-172609
They have found unvaccinated people who have recovered from Covid, but show no antibodies, they do show T cell immunity though
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19
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........ with the majority of hospital admissions being reported as the unvaccinated.
If so, do they realise what they are voluntarily doing to other people and families.
It's an interesting moral point in a way. New restrictions are based on relieving pressure on hospitals but all the evidence indicates (with a few exceptions) that they are currently full of the unvaccinated as you say. So, in short, the vaccinated have to endure restrictions which are mainly aimed at ensuring the unvaccinated don't end up in ICUs.
What's the answer? Leave them to die? My own tentative view is that we make it difficult for the unvaccinated to mix, go to pubs or restaurants and certainly not to attend mass events. This falls short of mandatory vaccination but makes it clear that the vaccinated can carry on as normal and the unvaccinated will have to face the consequences of their stupidity.
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If this report https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-immunity-antibody-omicron-b1979528.html then we who have been jabbed would benefit from then catching a dose of the virus.
I think I'll wait till a lot more than 26 people have been researched although I suppose the least worst time to catch covid would be when just newly boosted.
https://www.livescience.com/breakthrough-covid-infection-immunity-boost
Edit added link
Myself and Mrs B tested positive mid November, the week we were due to get our boosters. Not well for a couple of weeks but recovered and had our boosters, Moderna this time and had cold sweats for a couple of nights but all ok again now except that Mrs B has broken her leg !
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........ with the majority of hospital admissions being reported as the unvaccinated.
If so, do they realise what they are voluntarily doing to other people and families.
I searched for cold hard statistics on this.
Lots of claims about"90%" etc.
NO proof from any definitive study.
I am not saying it is untrue but as the published study I read said 40 odd % of all patients with Covid in hospital were unvaccinated, then I am dubious.
On reading your post I had a look as well and couldn't find anything either.
What I did find in the ONS statistics though was that the disease was most prevalent in young chidren (unvaccinated) but hospitalisations were more prevalent amongst older age groups.
My take on this would be to take care over Christmas with young children.
Vaccination or previous infection does not give 100% immunity.
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........ with the majority of hospital admissions being reported as the unvaccinated.
If so, do they realise what they are voluntarily doing to other people and families.
It's an interesting moral point in a way. New restrictions are based on relieving pressure on hospitals but all the evidence indicates (with a few exceptions) that they are currently full of the unvaccinated as you say. So, in short, the vaccinated have to endure restrictions which are mainly aimed at ensuring the unvaccinated don't end up in ICUs.
What's the answer? Leave them to die? My own tentative view is that we make it difficult for the unvaccinated to mix, go to pubs or restaurants and certainly not to attend mass events. This falls short of mandatory vaccination but makes it clear that the vaccinated can carry on as normal and the unvaccinated will have to face the consequences of their stupidity.
The trouble is it is very hard to isolate any group from others - think care homes early in pandemic.
It will be even harder with the unvaccinated.
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This is just one report mentioning the 90% unvaccinated.
https://metro.co.uk/2021/12/21/london-doctor-says-nine-in-10-icu-patients-are-unvaccinated-15805144/
It may be inflated due to frustration.
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This is just one report mentioning the 90% unvaccinated.
https://metro.co.uk/2021/12/21/london-doctor-says-nine-in-10-icu-patients-are-unvaccinated-15805144/
It may be inflated due to frustration.
"as many as 90% of his patients are unvaccinated."
Kinda like the sales" from £4.99"
but I agree it seems unfair that the unvaccinated are using up the resources of the NHS which could be better employed looking after the needs of the rest of the population
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On the ONS website latest data release ( 23 Dec ) it reports that 1/3 of people in hospital covid wards were asymptomatic when admitted for something else, but their covid test was positive. Then they had to be moved to covid wards to isolate them from non-covid patients. So just like SA some do not have symptoms and only the routing testing of people being admitted to hospital shows they have the virus... So that means the 'Hospitalised with covid' figures in the general media are not a true reflection of the present state of play, and are inflated by something like 35%.
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Studies on AZ and Pfizer / Moderna vaccines suggest that the Adenovirus AZ vaccine give much longer lasting T cell protection compared to short term antibody protection given by mRNA vaccines - that may well explain why Sarah Gilbert of Oxford university said boosters not needed for people who had AZ but Pfizer say one 'booster' jab every 3 months needed.
I don't think that is the gist of the article.
Sarah Gilbert is saying that the vaccines would be better deployed in vaccinating people in poorer countries than in giving boosters here.
The article* predates the realisation that immunity from two vaccinations (of any kind) was waning , the discovery of the Omicron variant and the push for boosters.
On the ONS website latest data release ( 23 Dec ) it reports that 1/3 of people in hospital covid wards were asymptomatic when admitted for something else, but their covid test was positive. Then they had to be moved to covid wards to isolate them from non-covid patients. So just like SA some do not have symptoms and only the routing testing of people being admitted to hospital shows they have the virus... So that means the 'Hospitalised with covid' figures in the general media are not a true reflection of the present state of play, and are inflated by something like 35%.
Surely that means that there are many young people carrying the virus who will go undetected unless they are admitted to hospital or tested for some other reason.
Edit *Sorry I was referring to this article which I thought you had referenced.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/sep/10/dame-sarah-gilbert-uk-covid-booster-jabs-unnecessary-for-all
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On the ONS website latest data release ( 23 Dec ) it reports that 1/3 of people in hospital covid wards were asymptomatic when admitted for something else, but their covid test was positive. Then they had to be moved to covid wards to isolate them from non-covid patients. So just like SA some do not have symptoms and only the routing testing of people being admitted to hospital shows they have the virus... So that means the 'Hospitalised with covid' figures in the general media are not a true reflection of the present state of play, and are inflated by something like 35%.
ONS publish such a mass of data that it's easy to cherry-pick from it to support a particular theory. I can't see anything like that assertion (but I may have missed it), please provide the source so we can see what they actually said. No source = fake news.
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I would appreciate a reference to this statement too
- that may well explain why Sarah Gilbert of Oxford university said boosters not needed for people who had AZ but Pfizer say one 'booster' jab every 3 months needed.
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I have noticed that moderna are emphasising the need for boosters and even a fourth dose, and the improvement possible if a higher dose of their product is given. This may have more to do with share prices than science. They also seem to now be playing down the need to develop a modified omicron version. Again is this commercial or science.?
It was a week or so ago. I cant recall the precise source material.
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ONS publish such a mass of data that it's easy to cherry-pick from it to support a particular theory. I can't see anything like that assertion (but I may have missed it), please provide the source so we can see what they actually said. No source = fake news.
From ONS
'The majority of inpatients with Covid-19 are admitted as a result of the infection. A subset of those who contract Covid in the community and are asymptomatic, or exhibited relatively mild symptoms that on their own are unlikely to warrant admission to hospital, will then be admitted to hospital to be treated for something else and be identified through routine testing. However these patients still require their treatment in areas that are segregated from patients without Covid, and the presence of Covid can be a significant co-morbidity in many cases.'
Attached is PDF of data ( could not attach xlsx file ) - two sheets in xlsx file
one for 'primarily covid' for patients admitted due to covid
one for 'beds occupied by confirmed covid cases' - admitted for other reason but found when tested on admission to have covid with no symptoms
The difference between the two figures is the people who were not admitted for covid, so 6,245 - 4,432
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I have noticed that moderna are emphasising the need for boosters and even a fourth dose, and the improvement possible if a higher dose of their product is given. This may have more to do with share prices than science. They also seem to now be playing down the need to develop a modified omicron version. Again is this commercial or science.?
It was a week or so ago. I cant recall the precise source material.
Even the dyed in the wool doom-mongers on SAGE committee have grudgingly admitted that 'Omicron may be milder than we thought' - they took no notice of the data from South Africa until it was so obvious to be embarrassing. Throughout the pingdemic SAGE models proved to be about as accurate as a 6 month advanced weather forecast.. I would not be surprised if many of out tame experts have shares in Pfizer, added to the money they were paid directly from taxpayers pockets, and now they may lose a lot of money because it looks like SAGE will be disbanded and no vaccine required for OMGicron variety and Pfizer shares will drop. Sage were not following the science but following the money oink, oink.
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So of the 6245 patients in a hospital in England on the 21st, only 1813 were not admitted suffering from Covid 19. In other words, 71% were admitted for treatment for Covid.
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I have noticed that moderna are emphasising the need for boosters and even a fourth dose, and the improvement possible if a higher dose of their product is given. This may have more to do with share prices than science. They also seem to now be playing down the need to develop a modified omicron version. Again is this commercial or science.?
It was a week or so ago. I cant recall the precise source material.
Even the dyed in the wool doom-mongers on SAGE committee have grudgingly admitted that 'Omicron may be milder than we thought' - they took no notice of the data from South Africa until it was so obvious to be embarrassing.
Sorry to have to keep repeating this but it depends how much less serious.
If it is only slightly less serious this will be more than compensated by the greater number of infections.
If it is much less serious then that would be great.
It will be a couple of weeks before the severity is known.
Until the scientists know it is better to be cautious.
The data from South Africa is being considered but there are many ways in which the South African situation is different from that in the UK.
Younger population.
Less vaccinated population.
Higher acquired immunity from previous infections
Greater number of dead amongst older population as a result of previous variants
Greater number of compromised immune systems through AIDS
Summer rather than Winter.
https://www.channel4.com/news/covid-omicron-up-to-70-less-likely-to-require-hospital-admission-ukhsa-finds
Edit added link
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So of the 6245 patients in a hospital in England on the 21st, only 1813 were not admitted suffering from Covid 19. In other words, 71% were admitted for treatment for Covid.
Yeah, but other less detailed data shows them as 'covid bed patients' which skews the numbers up by 30%, all I was saying is that not every patient in a covid bed is there because they were admitted for covid.
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So of the 6245 patients in a hospital in England on the 21st, only 1813 were not admitted suffering from Covid 19. In other words, 71% were admitted for treatment for Covid.
Yeah, but other less detailed data shows them as 'covid bed patients' which skews the numbers up by 30%, all I was saying is that not every patient in a covid bed is there because they were admitted for covid.
As I pointed out before that means that there will be a lot of asymptomatic people out there spreading the virus around some of whom are only detected when they go into hospital for something else
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ONS publish such a mass of data that it's easy to cherry-pick from it to support a particular theory. I can't see anything like that assertion (but I may have missed it), please provide the source so we can see what they actually said. No source = fake news.
From ONS
'The majority of inpatients with Covid-19 are admitted as a result of the infection. A subset of those who contract Covid in the community and are asymptomatic, or exhibited relatively mild symptoms that on their own are unlikely to warrant admission to hospital, will then be admitted to hospital to be treated for something else and be identified through routine testing. However these patients still require their treatment in areas that are segregated from patients without Covid, and the presence of Covid can be a significant co-morbidity in many cases.'
Attached is PDF of data ( could not attach xlsx file ) - two sheets in xlsx file
one for 'primarily covid' for patients admitted due to covid
one for 'beds occupied by confirmed covid cases' - admitted for other reason but found when tested on admission to have covid with no symptoms
The difference between the two figures is the people who were not admitted for covid, so 6,245 - 4,432
Thank you, but it’s not really what I asked for. The reason for wanting to look at the source is that the context is important because it may contain comments and caveats about the data. A link rather than another extract would be ideal.
However that’s not important. You jump to the conclusion that data is being “inflated” implying that some kind of deceit is going on. But if the report is “people in hospital with Covid” (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom) then it doesn’t matter whether they knew they had it when they were admitted: they’re in hospital and they’re positive. As others have said all that means is that there’re a lot of asymptomatic people out there (which is going to get worse if omicron is leading to a lower rate - but a higher absolute number - of hospitalisations). Which is why the ONS estimate the infection rate to be 1 in 45 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights#infections).
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Quote of the day 'The frightened ones are especially angry at the unfrightened ones'...
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So of the 6245 patients in a hospital in England on the 21st, only 1813 were not admitted suffering from Covid 19. In other words, 71% were admitted for treatment for Covid.
Yeah, but other less detailed data shows them as 'covid bed patients' which skews the numbers up by 30%, all I was saying is that not every patient in a covid bed is there because they were admitted for covid.
As I pointed out before that means that there will be a lot of asymptomatic people out there spreading the virus around some of whom are only detected when they go into hospital for something else
But a large proportion of the vaccinated carry the virus without symptoms, not just the unvaxxed.
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But a large proportion of the vaccinated carry the virus without symptoms, not just the unvaxxed.
Well yes, I don't think anyone would argue with that. But the preceding discussion has been about asymptomatic people entering hospital. Why introduce the vaxxed vs unvaxxed argument, it's not relevant here because both could be asymptomatic.
And that's exactly why we are all, irrespective of vaccine status, urged to keep doing LFTs.
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Quote of the day 'The frightened ones are especially angry at the unfrightened ones'...
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Even the dyed in the wool doom-mongers on SAGE committee have grudgingly admitted that 'Omicron may be milder than we thought' - they took no notice of the data from South Africa until it was so obvious to be embarrassing. Throughout the pingdemic SAGE models proved to be about as accurate as a 6 month advanced weather forecast.. I would not be surprised if many of out tame experts have shares in Pfizer, added to the money they were paid directly from taxpayers pockets, and now they may lose a lot of money because it looks like SAGE will be disbanded and no vaccine required for OMGicron variety and Pfizer shares will drop. Sage were not following the science but following the money oink, oink.
Sage put forward a series of scenarios. The media seize on the most extreme.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/vallance-hits-back-at-tory-accusations-of-omicron-fear-mongering
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/its-not-true-covid-19-modellers-look-only-at-worst-outcomes
Edit added link to Vallance's article
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Precisely.
Only those ignorant of scientific processes think experts give ONE forecast.
Only those wanting to cause upset/trouble/strife /with an agenda pick on one extreme.
I was trained as a physicist and an accountant.
When you make any assessment of a future unknown , you make a range of assumptions. Combine them all and you have a range of outcomes.
ANYONE - but anyone - seizing on one extreme to suit their case is not worth listening to in my opinion as that IS NOT how things are decided in the real world.
I used to review the financial budgets of companies as part of a large Group. We always started with the assumptions. If ALL the assumptions were pessimistic or optimistic that was a clear warning sign that there was likely to be another agenda in play.
And almost inevitably they were told to revise their assumptions to be more realistic.
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The number of hospital cases in Scotland confirmed to have the Omicron strain went from 24 on Thursday to 42 on Friday. Rather a concerning jump.
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That is their main concern.
Whilst the strain is apparently less severe, the number of infections is skyrocketing so those who are vulnerable, either through other health issues or self inflicted know it all's will increase.
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The number of hospital cases in Scotland confirmed to have the Omicron strain went from 24 on Thursday to 42 on Friday. Rather a concerning jump.
Much better than being confirmed with Delta, evidence so far predicts most will be out in 2 to 3 days, without oxygen, rather than 8 to 9 for Delta and earlier variants... 'In for Christmas and back out before Hogmanay :)
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This may be behind a paywall, --- Professor Graham Medley head of SAGE modelling team made a shocking admission 'we model what we are asked to model by the decision makers ( government ) to drive the outcomes they want'.... In other words the politicians have an agenda they want to push and ask for models to enable them to do it.... It seems rather than following the science, the science is irrelevant.... ( If anyone cannot read it I can make a PDF ) - there is also an article with SAGES own graphs vs actual data that show how astronomically, spectacularly wrong SAGE got their forecasts ( which to be fair to SAGE may well be because they were asked to show astronomically spectacularly wrong forecasts to satisfy the needs of their political masters).
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee
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The most damning thing admitted by Prof Graham Medley is that 'we provided the models the customer ( in this case HM government ) wanted in order to implement their policies' ( which presumably had already been decided beforehand and required an 'expert' model to activate ..... That is shorthand for 'you pays us the money and get what you want'....
'I will believe there is a crisis when those in charge who are telling us there is a crisis behave as if there is a crisis'.
Here is a novel idea - tell people the truth and trust them....
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Here is a novel idea - tell people the truth and trust them....
Unlikely to get this from the present incompetent incumbents.
A big part of the problem is a government that doesn't engender trust asking you to trust it with a constant stream of changing advice.
Unfortunately such mistrust extends to science.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/20/boris-johnsons-covid-flip-flops-the-pledges-upended-by-reality
[link removed by Admin]
Edit added link
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The most damning thing admitted by Prof Graham Medley is that 'we provided the models the customer ( in this case HM government ) wanted in order to implement their policies'
Thanks for the source this time, that allows one to spot that that "quote" does not appear in the Twitter extract, it's been made up. What Medley actually said was "We generally model what we are asked to model. There is a dialogue in which policy teams discuss with the modellers what they need to inform their policies.". That's not quite the same thing, it's saying they'll model the scenarios that are needed. And, as he says, there's no point expending effort modelling something where the outcome is known, it's assumed that the policy makers already know that one (which, admittedly, could be a dodgy assumption).
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Information from 3 lockdowns shows that deaths and infections were falling before the lockdowns began, this was never mentioned, in fact data showing a surge of infections and deaths and a sudden cliff edge drop after lockdown was shown in all national media. The data from Sweden ( who did not lock down ) shows the same pattern of waves as UK... embarrassing or what ? If it looks like fish and smells like fish - it will be fishy.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-and-the-lockdown-effect-a-look-at-the-evidence
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The adages " you can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some all the time...." and "lies, damned lies and statistic' have been true for centuries.
. Decision makers have always cherry picked the opinions that best meet their own agenda. . Or populated prestigious paid committees and think tanks with biased 'yes men'. If any members make a personal comment contrary to the script they are side lined to obscurity or discredited. Plenty more where they came from eager for the lime light.
Same happens with politicians who behave badly.They hide back under their nasty stones for a while until we forget how ghastly and incompetent they are.
Its nothing new. Its just the current bunch are particularly incompetent at hiding their dishonesty and greed.
Often the difference between those who died 'with' covid , or 'of' covid is not made clear .When the proportion of society testing positive rises, so will those admitted to hospital for other reasons. And so will the number who die for other reasons who tested positive during the last 28 days. Even if they died in a car crash. Yet its always been the case more people die in winter, even if they have been kept comfortably warm and fed.
For many a simplified 'dont think ,just trust us. Get jabbed so you and your granny wont die' ' message may work best. .
For those of us who dig deeper you will always find a professor and a bunch of students who have done a possibly brief study, whos conclusions opinions and statistics agree with what you always thought. Or if you dont want to dig for yourself you can chose a favourite newspaper that can be relied upon to report what you expect.
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Latest Scottish update;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-59817793
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0013km2/bbc-scotland-news-special-coronavirus-update-29122021
edit added iplayer link
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The adages " you can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some all the time...." and "lies, damned lies and statistic' have been true for centuries.
. Decision makers have always cherry picked the opinions that best meet their own agenda. . Or populated prestigious paid committees and think tanks with biased 'yes men'. If any members make a personal comment contrary to the script they are side lined to obscurity or discredited. Plenty more where they came from eager for the lime light.
Same happens with politicians who behave badly.They hide back under their nasty stones for a while until we forget how ghastly and incompetent they are.
Its nothing new. Its just the current bunch are particularly incompetent at hiding their dishonesty and greed.
Often the difference between those who died 'with' covid , or 'of' covid is not made clear .When the proportion of society testing positive rises, so will those admitted to hospital for other reasons. And so will the number who die for other reasons who tested positive during the last 28 days. Even if they died in a car crash. Yet its always been the case more people die in winter, even if they have been kept comfortably warm and fed.
For many a simplified 'dont think ,just trust us. Get jabbed so you and your granny wont die' ' message may work best. .
For those of us who dig deeper you will always find a professor and a bunch of students who have done a possibly brief study, whos conclusions opinions and statistics agree with what you always thought. Or if you dont want to dig for yourself you can chose a favourite newspaper that can be relied upon to report what you expect. Anyway, for my business I arranged this great thing (https://healthplan.co.uk/health-insurance/small-business/). No complaints so far!
The good news: It'll likely be over by March, maybe February, and omicron may be the most infectious form this virus is able to take (it's already the most infectious virus known it appears). And in that case, it will continue to dominate future mutations as they occur while, perhaps becoming even less capable of causing damage to the host.
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The good news: It'll likely be over by March, maybe February...
Over in what sense? My understanding all along has been that we will be living with this series of virii for ever just like Influenza.
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Yes : Just like flu after the 1918-20 epidemic. Still here 100 years later. And mutating and still killing people.(Mostly elderly unvaccinated)
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The good news: It'll likely be over by March, maybe February...
Over in what sense? My understanding all along has been that we will be living with this series of virii for ever just like Influenza.
The plural of virus is viruses.
"virii" would be the plural of a hypothetical second declension Latin word "virius".
Response from a Latin scholar: https://linguistlist.org/issues/15/15-1540/
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The plural of virus is viruses.
Thank you; I had no idea. >:(
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Johnson on again at 5pm
Wonder if he still sees nothing in data?
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Granted reporting of data is all over the place due to the holidays but
Confirmed cases, hospitalisations and deaths all up 50% in a week. Tests up 1%.
And its not just London
https://nitter.42l.fr/PaulMainwood/status/1478397388607954952#m
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Looking at the data they are presenting, our main problem is the unvaccinated and partially unvaccinated.
Reading between the lines they seem to be allowing the country to carry on and if you are unvaccinated then that's your lookout if you do need ICU hooked up to tubes and monitors. Self inflicted misery.
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Looking at the data they are presenting, our main problem is the unvaccinated and partially unvaccinated.
Reading between the lines they seem to be allowing the country to carry on and if you are unvaccinated then that's your lookout if you do need ICU hooked up to tubes and monitors. Self inflicted misery.
Unfortunately the unvaccinated will not be the only ones to suffer.
The virus will also be passed to vaccinated older, more vulnerable people - not to mention those who will go untreated or undiagnosed because the health service will be otherwise engaged.
Also the country can't carry on as normal when so many key workers are off sick or isolating.
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That's the sad part of it, everyone suffers.
I walked the long way to my Amazon locker yesterday. 07:00 so it was easy to see inside the lighted buses along the main road.
The most frequent bus is the 140 that runs from Harrow to Heathrow. During my walk I stopped and looked as each 140 passed, both directions.
The inside picture was the same on each bus ....... downstairs 95% mainly IC1 wearing masks. Upstairs 80%, mainly IC3 IC4 NOT wearing masks and this time of year all windows shut.
Do they not realise the risks they are taking to themselves, their own family and others.
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Looking at the data they are presenting, our main problem is the unvaccinated and partially unvaccinated.
Reading between the lines they seem to be allowing the country to carry on and if you are unvaccinated then that's your lookout if you do need ICU hooked up to tubes and monitors. Self inflicted misery.
Unfortunately the unvaccinated will not be the only ones to suffer.
The virus will also be passed to vaccinated older, more vulnerable people - not to mention those who will go untreated or undiagnosed because the health service will be otherwise engaged.
Also the country can't carry on as normal when so many key workers are off sick or isolating.
The vaccinated and 'boosted' just as capable of spreading the virus around as the unavxxed, and maybe less likely to show overt symptoms.
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Looking at the data they are presenting, our main problem is the unvaccinated and partially unvaccinated.
Reading between the lines they seem to be allowing the country to carry on and if you are unvaccinated then that's your lookout if you do need ICU hooked up to tubes and monitors. Self inflicted misery.
Unfortunately the unvaccinated will not be the only ones to suffer.
The virus will also be passed to vaccinated older, more vulnerable people - not to mention those who will go untreated or undiagnosed because the health service will be otherwise engaged.
Also the country can't carry on as normal when so many key workers are off sick or isolating.
The vaccinated and 'boosted' just as capable of spreading the virus around as the unavxxed, and maybe less likely to show overt symptoms.
Er No.
Even if infected, the vaccinated and boosted person is likely to be carrying a lower viral load.
https://www.osfhealthcare.org/blog/fully-vaccinated-less-likely-to-pass-covid-19-to-others/
Plus-- measures like mask wearing social distancing and good ventilation reduce transmission.
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The vaccinated and 'boosted' just as capable of spreading the virus around as the unvaxxed, and maybe less likely to show overt symptoms.
Do you have a source for that assertion?
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"Infections with the Delta variant in vaccinated persons potentially have reduced transmissibility than infections in unvaccinated persons, although additional studies are needed."
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html
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The vaccinated and 'boosted' just as capable of spreading the virus around as the unavxxed, and maybe less likely to show overt symptoms.
Another source (posted by Dermot in November (reply #56) in contradiction to your statement.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/
Update on testing
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/covid-19-testing-rules-following-162226281.html
I can't help but think that this is due to the testing system being overwhelmed by the high numbers.
How many people will self isolate on the basis of a lateral flow test, especially if they need to work to earn money and don't feel too bad?
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Latest Indie Sage Briefing. 7th January (first for 3 weeks)
You Tube Video
Main Summary Slides See attachments
See all slides here (fingers crossed)
Edit Link did not work.
Hopefully can be accessed from this page.[See the numbers here (pdf)]
https://www.independentsage.org/weekly-briefing-7th-january-2022/
Hospitals under great pressure.
Next problems returns of schools and universities
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Listening to Linda Bauld this morning. In Scotland, after correcting for age, you are 12.5 times more likely to end up seriously ill in hospital if you are unvaccinated than against vaccinated.
And again, in Scotland, 60% of hospital cases with Covid were admitted for Covid as against the 40% who were diagnosed with Covid on being admitted for something non-Covid related.
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Informed this evening that my step-daughter has just tested positive for Covid. She has been testing daily and a positive Lateral Flow test led her to take a PCR test and this confirmed Covid. Her mum is up to high doh despite me reminding her that she had all three vaccinations and any symptoms will probably be fairly mild.
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Informed this evening that my step-daughter has just tested positive for Covid. She has been testing daily and a positive Lateral Flow test led her to take a PCR test and this confirmed Covid. Her mum is up to high doh despite me reminding her that she had all three vaccinations and any symptoms will probably be fairly mild.
Good luck to them.
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Sorry to hear that.
As you say she should be all right having had three jags.
Hope she's in a situation where she can self-isolate without too much inconvenience.
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If this mornings news is correct then free lateral flow tests are to be scrapped and we are being expected to live with it.
I get the impression they are assuming Delta was the last serious infection and all future ones will be mild.
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If this mornings news is correct then free lateral flow tests are to be scrapped and we are being expected to live with it.
I get the impression they are assuming Delta was the last serious infection and all future ones will be mild.
More mixed messaging and wishful thinking.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/09/nadhim-zahawi-denies-there-is-plan-to-end-free-lateral-flow-covid-tests
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-uk-news-live-cases-test-b1989458.html?page=2#post-538566
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-uk-news-live-cases-test-b1989458.html?page=2
edit added links
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If this mornings news is correct then free lateral flow tests are to be scrapped and we are being expected to live with it.
I get the impression they are assuming Delta was the last serious infection and all future ones will be mild.
Well I can vouch for OMG-icron being mild, I know a few people who got over it very quickly, me and wifey picked it up over christmas ( along with the turkey LOL ) and no more than a cold... I had 2x AZ jabs last year ( Feb and May ), did not get 'boosted' or the useless flu jab ( they always get the wrong strains), and last flu jab I had which was also my first ever in late 2019 I developed shingles ( which is very nasty ) a few days after the jab, on the same side of body as the jab, so no more flu jabs for me. Despite being boosted ( or maybe because of ) my younger wife had worse symptoms than me, I never felt the need to go to bed, never got anything worse than a runny nose ( and mild headache for a day). I think the population is being given too many relatively untested vaccines which may well be affecting our immune systems, and not in a good way. The successful virus strain is the one that can spread the furthest, and that will be the one that does not kill or incapacitate its host and allows them to move around and give the virus to others - at the moment Omicron is top of the heap and has displaced the earlier ones, but may itself be displaced by an even milder one soon. It will all be over by spring...
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Hope you had the sense to self isolate.
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Hope you had the sense to self isolate.
Been out partying every day since positive test .... gladly doing my bit for herd immunity.
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NHS doctor tells Sajid Javid why he will not get vaccinated, my guess is that the 'no jab - no job' rule will be quietly dropped when politicians finally grasp - the true nature of Omicron and the damage being done to NHS by threatening medical staff in this way. He asks Javid ' are you going to vaccinate everyone every month, because that is the protection life of boosters'
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Hope you had the sense to self isolate.
Been out partying every day since positive test .... gladly doing my bit for herd immunity.
"Herd immunity against COVID-19 should be achieved by protecting people through vaccination, not by exposing them to the pathogen that causes the disease. Read the Director-General’s 12 October media briefing speech for more detail.
https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19
"However, there are some major problems with relying on community infection to create herd immunity to the virus that causes COVID-19:
Reinfection. It’s not clear how long you are protected from getting sick again after recovering from COVID-19. Even if you have antibodies, you could get COVID-19 again.
Health impact. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the pandemic. This number of infections could lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have existing health conditions. The health care system could quickly become overwhelmed."
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808
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Well looking at the length of time the new MRNA 'therapies' protect people with their short lived anti-bodies, as the Doctor in video says, are we willing to inject everyone every month ? The answer is no ( although Fizzer shareholder would love it ). I had more faith in AZ vaccine because that trained up the immune systems 'T' cells, and that lasts a lot longer.
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NHS doctor tells Sajid Javid why he will not get vaccinated, my guess is that the 'no jab - no job' rule will be quietly dropped when politicians finally grasp - the true nature of Omicron and the damage being done to NHS by threatening medical staff in this way. He asks Javid ' are you going to vaccinate everyone every month, because that is the protection life of boosters'
Continue to the end of video and read the Disclaimer from Kings College Hospital.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59927306
Added link for full context.
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NHS doctor tells Sajid Javid why he will not get vaccinated, my guess is that the 'no jab - no job' rule will be quietly dropped when politicians finally grasp - the true nature of Omicron and the damage being done to NHS by threatening medical staff in this way. He asks Javid ' are you going to vaccinate everyone every month, because that is the protection life of boosters'
Continue to the end of video and read the Disclaimer from Kings College Hospital.
They would say that wouldn't they ? Are we gonna carry on with the booster merry go round - being jabbed every month for ever ? As I said, there will be egg over many faces very soon, the people who did not understand 'the science', but engaged in virus politics ( Sturgeon, I'm looking at you ).
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It would appear that Laura, my step-daughter, has contracted the Delta variant. She is having breathing difficulties, a painful persistent cough and everything, even water, tastes of burnt plastic. And she is a trim, fit, girl, in her thirties.
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It would appear that Laura, my step-daughter, has contracted the Delta variant. She is having breathing difficulties, a painful persistent cough and everything, even water, tastes of burnt plastic. And she is a trim, fit, girl, in her thirties.
Sorry to hear that. Hope she gets better soon.
Take care.
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As I said, there will be egg over many faces very soon, the people who did not understand 'the science', but engaged in virus politics ( Sturgeon, I'm looking at you ).
I'm afraid you are once again looking in the wrong direction.
Throughout the pandemic Sturgeon's approach has been much more systematic and data led.
Her updates have been regular and meaningful as compared to the sporadic and panic-driven presentations from Johnson.
She has encouraged caution rather than Johnson's bumbling optimism.
Johnson is influenced less by the scientists than by his back benchers of the CRG and 1922 Club many of whom have a background in financial services.
He is gambling with peoples lives in the same way that they gamble with other peoples money.
(and give themselves a nice bonus when they win and accept no responsibility when they lose and still give themselves a nice bonus).
[link removed by Admin]
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19834447.nicola-sturgeon-free-lateral-flow-test-scaling-back-reports-utterly-wrongheaded/
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Well looking at the length of time the new MRNA 'therapies' protect people with their short lived anti-bodies, as the Doctor in video says, are we willing to inject everyone every month ? The answer is no ( although Fizzer shareholder would love it ). I had more faith in AZ vaccine because that trained up the immune systems 'T' cells, and that lasts a lot longer.
Perhaps you can correct this chap, he is obviously wrong according to your assessments. I suggest look between around 12.35 and 25.30 for a start.
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I'm afraid you are once again looking in the wrong direction.
Throughout the pandemic Sturgeon's approach has been much more systematic and data led.
Not long ago krankie said she would lock down, but only if Westminster sent up some of those hated English £'s.... ( she didn't say hated English in so many words ) but she had her hand out... Same with Drakeford of the Welsh communist party.. Like it or not at the moment England is supporting the 'devolved nations' - and England needs to keep the economy moving, and cannot indulge in 'pandemic politics'.
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I'm afraid you are once again looking in the wrong direction.
Throughout the pandemic Sturgeon's approach has been much more systematic and data led.
Not long ago krankie said she would lock down, but only if Westminster sent up some of those hated English £'s.... ( she didn't say hated English in so many words ) but she had her hand out... Same with Drakeford of the Welsh communist party.. Like it or not at the moment England is supporting the 'devolved nations' - and England needs to keep the economy moving, and cannot indulge in 'pandemic politics'.
The Scottish and Welsh governments did not want to lockdown.
They wanted to put restrictions on night clubs and licensed premises until more was known about the Omicron variant and had longer to allow more people to be vaccinated but needed money to compensate the businesses involved.
Unfortunately the Westminster Government controls the money part of which is provided by Scottish and Welsh taxpayers.
The Westminster Government were content to cross their fingers, let the virus run out of control and run the risk of overwhelming the NHS.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-59895505
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/mark-drakeford-boris-johnson-covid-restrictions-politics-england_uk_61d84f09e4b0d637aea0d0b9
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It would appear that Laura, my step-daughter, has contracted the Delta variant. She is having breathing difficulties, a painful persistent cough and everything, even water, tastes of burnt plastic. And she is a trim, fit, girl, in her thirties.
Any improvement ?
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Any improvement ?
She hasn't answered her mum's txt today (she is in Windsor). We now hear that my other step-daughter's eldest boy, here in Scotland, has Covid and my ex has Covid also. I spoke to my daughter and she has spoken to her mum (76, resident in a care home) and she tells me the symptoms her mother is suffering are just that of a heavy cold.
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Just shows how contagious this virus is.
When I see people in supermarkets and on buses, maskless, I fail to understand why, although I have a good idea when I look at their demographic. The 'I am invincible' mob.
Hope all your family recover soon with no lasting effects.
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Just shows how contagious this virus is.
When I see people in supermarkets and on buses, maskless, I fail to understand why, although I have a good idea when I look at their demographic. The 'I am invincible' mob.
Hope all your family recover soon with no lasting effects.
I would be happy if every cold I had in the future was as mild as Omicron I just had.... and that is without a 'booster' ( or maybe because of not having a booster to compromise my immune system ) - my wife had worse symptoms despite ( or maybe because ) she had the booster, but still just the symptoms of a very heavy common cold. All I can say is AZ vaccine did me proud ( even though my second shot was in April 2021 - despite the smear campaign...
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When I see people in supermarkets and on buses, maskless, I fail to understand why, although I have a good idea when I look at their demographic. The 'I am invincible' mob.
Or, I don't give a flying f*** about anyone else!
Am I alone in being able to spot these selfish people on sight, there is just a certain 'look' to them?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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...From behind my mask I find it difficult to express an adequate enough amount of silent, eyes only disgust/contempt to maskless people in shops. >:(
My wife has her 'teacher stare' which I may have to adopt :D
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Latest Indie Sage briefing.
Especially relevant to those who think it's all over.
Crisis in hospitals.
Infections in schools.
Problems for the future.
0-17m update on data
17-27m presentations on epidemiology (why endemic doesn't mean it's all over)
27m -end Answers to questions
https://www.independentsage.org/weekly-briefing-14th-january-2022/
Gives links to slides
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I would rather believe The Sun on this one, time to disband the doom mongering SAGE cabal....
https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/17306522/covid-worst-of-omicron-nearly-over/
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A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, with no other co-morbidities, "from" covid as opposed to "With" it. The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 (and the average age was over 82, more than the average life expectation in UK!). About 10% of the claimed deaths 'from' covid which had been used by the government and SAGE to justify draconian restrictions and lockdowns, wrecking the economy in the process, plunging the country into depression and increasing the National Debt by over £800 billion to £2.3 trillion
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What price do you put on 17,300 lives? Are they worth less because they are older?
Not quite sure of the logic here, but I do get your point.
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What I'm interested in watching is the cases rate in a week or two given incubation.
They've relaxed back to plan A because they reckon the peak has passed and Omicron is now reducing significantly.
With these new freedoms I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase. I hope I'm wrong.
On the day they announced plan A, case's went from 94k to 108k
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A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, with no other co-morbidities, "from" covid as opposed to "With" it. The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 (and the average age was over 82, more than the average life expectation in UK!). About 10% of the claimed deaths 'from' covid which had been used by the government and SAGE to justify draconian restrictions and lockdowns, wrecking the economy in the process, plunging the country into depression and increasing the National Debt by over £800 billion to £2.3 trillion
Yet again unfortunately no citation so this cannot be checked or trusted. No reliable source = fake news.
Whereas this BBC webpage ...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
... if you scroll down to the penultimate graphic puts the excess deaths at around 150,000. And it cites the data sources so you can go back and check. ONS is quoted as saying total deaths involving Covid is around 175,000, which makes me wonder whether the 17,300 you mention is a misquote with the decimal point in the wrong place.
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A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, with no other co-morbidities, "from" covid as opposed to "With" it. The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 (and the average age was over 82, more than the average life expectation in UK!). About 10% of the claimed deaths 'from' covid which had been used by the government and SAGE to justify draconian restrictions and lockdowns, wrecking the economy in the process, plunging the country into depression and increasing the National Debt by over £800 billion to £2.3 trillion
Yet again unfortunately no citation so this cannot be checked or trusted. No reliable source = fake news.
Whereas this BBC webpage ...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
... if you scroll down to the penultimate graphic puts the excess deaths at around 150,000. And it cites the data sources so you can go back and check. ONS is quoted as saying total deaths involving Covid is around 175,000, which makes me wonder whether the 17,300 you mention is a misquote with the decimal point in the wrong place.
Decimal place in wrong place, very funny - it was actually SAGE who moved the decimal point one place to the right. We always knew deaths purely 'from' covid ( relatively healthy people with no other real health issues ) were being massively over-counted. The big clue was that 75% of covid deaths were over 85, and 95% were over 60 and all with '2 or more' pre-existing serious chronic health condition - it does not take Einstein to work out what the problem was, a lot of the Covid deaths would have been 'influenza' deaths in a bad seasonal flu year, but country has never been locked down for influenza. Flu pretty much disappeared during last 2 yearsn and in an 'average flu year' there are about 20,000 deaths. Data also shows that 48% of people in hospital with covid are now 'incidental' admissions, they were admitted for other treatments but when admitted or already in hospital were found to be positive and had to be moved to 'covid areas', even though they had no real symptoms... Looks like Boris was correct not to lock down again.
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A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, with no other co-morbidities, "from" covid as opposed to "With" it. The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 (and the average age was over 82, more than the average life expectation in UK!). About 10% of the claimed deaths 'from' covid which had been used by the government and SAGE to justify draconian restrictions and lockdowns, wrecking the economy in the process, plunging the country into depression and increasing the National Debt by over £800 billion to £2.3 trillion
This argument has been hyped up again on social media as a result of (deliberate) misinterpretation of a report
by the CDC in the USA.
The most common co-morbidities are respiratory diseases which have been exacerbated by covid.
They would not necessarily died had they not had covid.
"That people had co-morbidities does not mean they did not die of #COVID19. COVID may have caused them or worked synergistically to kill them. There have been over 200,000 excess all cause deaths in the US this year, if COVID19 is not pushing up the numbers, what is? #COVIDKills"
"Social media is home to many misinterpretations of a recent CDC report on comorbidities and the coronavirus. Epidemiologist Justin Lessler sets things straight."
https://www.futurity.org/cdc-covid-19-comorbidities-2436032-2/
Edit Typo
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a lot of the Covid deaths would have been 'influenza' deaths in a bad seasonal flu year, but country has never been locked down for influenza. Flu pretty much disappeared during last 2 yearsn and in an 'average flu year' there are about 20,000 deaths.
This graphic showing the number of deaths from Covid (or even with Covid if you must) from early 2020 shows the difference between deaths from Covid and deaths from other causes.
What do you think would have happened if lockdowns had not been imposed or vaccines developed?
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I have high blood pressure and I am overweight. Two co-morbidities. But I am fit, living a great life, and not ready to pop my clogs anytime soon. The only true measure is excess deaths.
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The 17,000 deaths from COVID 19 are as follows-
2020: 9400 (0-64: 1549 / 65 and over: 7851)
2021 Q1: 6483 (0-64: 1560/ 65 and over: 4923)
2021 Q2: 346 (0-64: 153/ 65 and over: 193)
2021 Q3: 1142 (0-64: 512/ 65 and over: 630)
(copied from the ONS report)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19alonewithnounderlininghealthissuesnovemeber2019todecember2021
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a lot of the Covid deaths would have been 'influenza' deaths in a bad seasonal flu year, but country has never been locked down for influenza. Flu pretty much disappeared during last 2 yearsn and in an 'average flu year' there are about 20,000 deaths.
This graphic showing the number of deaths from Covid (or even with Covid if you must) from early 2020 shows the difference between deaths from Covid and deaths from other causes.
What do you think would have happened if lockdowns had not been imposed or vaccines developed?
If vaccines hadnt been developed things would currently be much worse.
But why do you prefer to be pessimistic and look at the very worrying covid death statistics from 2 years ago (pre vaccine) overlaid on flu and pneumonia deaths from 4 years ago ? This is not where we are at now.
Can I suggest you also go back 300 years and read 'Journal of the plague year' by Daniel Defoe.( Available free on Kindle). Although written in 1720 it refers to the plague of 1665 and there are some remarkable similarities with the current situation . Even this book has some elements of optimism. Its actually a very good read.
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It was in answer to Culzean's suggestion that covid was no more serious than flu.
You are correct in that it is not where we are now but restrictions were necessary until vaccines had been developed and administered.
Hopefully we are now approaching the situation where covid will be treated in a similar way to flu but I don't think we are quite there yet.
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The 17,000 deaths from COVID 19 are as follows-
2020: 9400 (0-64: 1549 / 65 and over: 7851)
2021 Q1: 6483 (0-64: 1560/ 65 and over: 4923)
2021 Q2: 346 (0-64: 153/ 65 and over: 193)
2021 Q3: 1142 (0-64: 512/ 65 and over: 630)
(copied from the ONS report)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19alonewithnounderlininghealthissuesnovemeber2019todecember2021
That seems to be the source of the data quoted by Culzean earlier, so thank you. But it seems to me that's a very small subset of the deaths due to COVID because it only includes people who have no other condition ... and how many people have nothing else wrong with them? Consider someone with an underlying condition (maybe heart disease or diabetes) that is well controlled and they have a reasonable life expectancy. If they get COVID and pass away, they will not appear in those stats but no-one could reasonably argue that they didn't die from COVID. The only sensible estimate must come from excess death figures, which are very many more than 17,000 ... ONS suggests closer to 150,000.
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For the foreseeable future I will still wear a mask and I will still only go to enclosed areas / shops on a need basis. I think it's too early and I feel for office workers who have been ordered back.
Yesterday's new cases were still above 100k and not dropping as I see published.
Looking at the cases map though Wales and Scotland are fairing far better than England.
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Here is something that puts things in perspective about all the other health problems that have carried on regardless of covid, and may already have resulted in early deaths, but will result in many deaths in coming years... Over the pandemic there has been a average 7 week reduction in average life expectancy for men, but actually an increase for women. The most shocking thing is that this information has been available for about a month, and I have seen absolutely no mention of it in mainstream media, it is almost as if they didn't want people to know.... :o
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Some data is being used falsely (or, at least, wrongly).
The quoted life expectancies of 79.0 (m) and 82.9 (f) are for newborn babies and have nothing at all to do with recent deaths of old people.
If you reach the age of 65, your life expectancy is another 18.5y (m) and 21.0y (f) making 83.5 (m) and 86.0 (f).
If you reach the age of 80, your life expectancy is another 8.4y (m) and 9.7y (f) making 88.4 (m) and 89.7 (f).
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2018to2020#life-expectancy-at-older-ages
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/nationallifetablesunitedkingdomreferencetables
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Interesting clip - who is the gent and what organisation, if any, is he speaking on behalf of please.
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John Campbell
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Campbell_(YouTuber)
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So he has a history of COVID-19 misinformation. Typical.
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So he has a history of COVID-19 misinformation. Typical.
I don't know how you can say that, he has been pretty much on the money throughout - and according to you by quoting office of national statistics data ( that document he is drawing on is a reprint of the official ONS release - link to it is below ) he is 'telling lies'. A lot of people suspected that the died 'from covid' and 'with covid' figures were getting mixed up, and the same in other countries. It suited SAGE and governments not to correct them because they looked a lot scarier as they were. If this does not ring alarm bells in peoples minds about how they have been manipulated then nothing will.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsfromcovid19withnootherunderlyingcauses
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/preexistingconditionsofpeoplewhodiedduetocovid19englandandwales
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I notice that for the last few days the BBC news, when reporting daily deaths 'within 28 days of a positive covid test' now specifically say this includes deaths that were not actually due to covid.
The current daily figures, typically 300 -400,sound a lot compared to summer figures, and dont sit well with proposals to relax restrictions. But may need to be put into context Death rates have always risen considerably in winter months.
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Some data is being used falsely (or, at least, wrongly).
The quoted life expectancies of 79.0 (m) and 82.9 (f) are for newborn babies and have nothing at all to do with recent deaths of old people.
If you reach the age of 65, your life expectancy is another 18.5y (m) and 21.0y (f) making 83.5 (m) and 86.0 (f).
If you reach the age of 80, your life expectancy is another 8.4y (m) and 9.7y (f) making 88.4 (m) and 89.7 (f).
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2018to2020#life-expectancy-at-older-ages
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/nationallifetablesunitedkingdomreferencetables
I seriously doubt if those figures apply to people with multiple ( 2 or more ) serious health conditions, which is the cohort being discussed in relation to covid deaths.
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I notice that for the last few days the BBC news, when reporting daily deaths 'within 28 days of a positive covid test' now specifically say this includes deaths that were not actually due to covid.
The current daily figures, typically 300 -400,sound a lot compared to summer figures, and dont sit well with proposals to relax restrictions. But may need to be put into context Death rates have always risen considerably in winter months.
In a normal year with no panic-demic 1500 people a day die ( >500,000 a year ). In London the 'incidental covid' cases ( people admitted for other treatments and found to have covid, often with no symptoms in routine tests ) is now >60%, in the rest of UK incidental cases are approaching 50%. That means these are then classed as 'covid' cases in hospital for data. If that person then dies from what they were actually admitted for, they will be counted as a covid death using BBC method. If you take % who actually died 'from' covid rather than 'with covid' in the December 16th ONS FOI data release ( roughly 10% of deaths ) that means 30 or 40 per day actually dying directly from covid, which is actually better than the average flu season deaths ( 15 to 20,000 over winter months ), and we never have any precautions for seasonal influenza.
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I seriously doubt if those figures apply to people with multiple ( 2 or more ) serious health conditions, which is the cohort being discussed in relation to covid deaths.
At least we agree on something.
But YOU were the one who introduced the life expectancy figures, prompted by the bloke in the YouTube video.
The life expectancy of children born today - those were the figures that you posted - will not be affected by last year's COVID. It's ludicrous to suggest otherwise.
If a prevention/cure can be found for prostate or ovarian cancer, that's the sort of thing that will have a positive effect on the life expectancy of kids born in the 2020s.
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I seriously doubt if those figures apply to people with multiple ( 2 or more ) serious health conditions, which is the cohort being discussed in relation to covid deaths.
At least we agree on something.
But YOU were the one who introduced the life expectancy figures, prompted by the bloke in the YouTube video.
The life expectancy of children born today - those were the figures that you posted - will not be affected by last year's COVID. It's ludicrous to suggest otherwise.
If a prevention/cure can be found for prostate or ovarian cancer, that's the sort of thing that will have a positive effect on the life expectancy of kids born in the 2020s.
The life expectancy figures the ONS use are based on lifetime expectancy. You confused the issue by introducing incremental life expectancies of healthy people based on age today. The figures you posted that a 85 year old can expect another X number of years certainly apply to a healthy person, but not, as I pointed out an already very sick 85 year old. Your figures have no relevance to the subject being discussed.
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I notice that for the last few days the BBC news, when reporting daily deaths 'within 28 days of a positive covid test' now specifically say this includes deaths that were not actually due to covid.
The current daily figures, typically 300 -400,sound a lot compared to summer figures, and dont sit well with proposals to relax restrictions. But may need to be put into context Death rates have always risen considerably in winter months.
AS Jocko pointed out earlier the only really reliable statistic is excess mortality
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2020to2021provisionaland2019to2020final
Explanation of changes in presentation.
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2022/01/12/understanding-excess-deaths-during-a-pandemic/
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The life expectancy figures the ONS use are based on lifetime expectancy. You confused the issue by introducing incremental life expectancies of healthy people based on age today. The figures you posted that a 85 year old can expect another X number of years certainly apply to a healthy person, but not, as I pointed out an already very sick 85 year old. Your figures have no relevance to the subject being discussed.
I think you have misunderstood the figures Bazzer was quoting.
The lifetime expectancy at birth is going to include people who die young.
If you survive child hood illnesses and car crashes in your young daft days etc. you can expect to live longer than the average life expectancy of a person at birth (which includes the ages of people now deceased)
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The life expectancy figures the ONS use are based on lifetime expectancy. You confused the issue by introducing incremental life expectancies of healthy people based on age today. The figures you posted that a 85 year old can expect another X number of years certainly apply to a healthy person, but not, as I pointed out an already very sick 85 year old. Your figures have no relevance to the subject being discussed.
I think you have misunderstood the figures Bazzer was quoting.
The lifetime expectancy at birth is going to include people who die young.
If you survive child hood illnesses and car crashes in your young daft days etc. you can expect to live longer than the average life expectancy of a person at birth (which includes the ages of people now deceased)
You completely misunderstood my point, what I was saying is that vast majority of people who have 'succumbed' 'with covid' so far have been over 85 with multiple ( 2 or more ) pre-existing serious health conditions. Those figures Bazzer quoted were for 'healthy' people over of age 75, 85 etc. No doctor in the world is going to consider that an 85 year old with serious heart problems coupled with at least one other chronic condition like emphysema or diabetes ( or both ) is going to have 9 years of life remaining. Right at the start of this panic-demic the WHO said that UK could expect bad death figures from Covid because the NHS was so good at keeping seriously ill older people alive, but those same seriously ill older people would be exactly the ones in the crosshairs of the virus. That forecast has turned out to be true, because 75% of deaths been over 85 and a whopping 95% over 65, all with multiple pre-existing health issues.
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I notice that for the last few days the BBC news, when reporting daily deaths 'within 28 days of a positive covid test' now specifically say this includes deaths that were not actually due to covid.
The current daily figures, typically 300 -400,sound a lot compared to summer figures, and dont sit well with proposals to relax restrictions. But may need to be put into context Death rates have always risen considerably in winter months.
AS Jocko pointed out earlier the only really reliable statistic is excess mortality
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2020to2021provisionaland2019to2020final
Explanation of changes in presentation.
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2022/01/12/understanding-excess-deaths-during-a-pandemic/
If you take the 'from covid' figure in ONS release, there is no real excess mortality, it works out at about 8,500 people per year ( less than an average influenza year ). Where it gets 'excess' is the 'with covid' figures, which is almost entirely made up of people over 65 with multile pre-existing serious health problems.
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The life expectancy figures the ONS use are based on lifetime expectancy. You confused the issue by introducing incremental life expectancies of healthy people based on age today. The figures you posted that a 85 year old can expect another X number of years certainly apply to a healthy person, but not, as I pointed out an already very sick 85 year old. Your figures have no relevance to the subject being discussed.
I think you have misunderstood the figures Bazzer was quoting.
The lifetime expectancy at birth is going to include people who die young.
If you survive child hood illnesses and car crashes in your young daft days etc. you can expect to live longer than the average life expectancy of a person at birth (which includes the ages of people now deceased)
You completely misunderstood my point, what I was saying is that vast majority of people who have 'succumbed' 'with covid' so far have been over 85 with multiple ( 2 or more ) pre-existing serious health conditions. Those figures Bazzer quoted were for 'healthy' people over of age 75, 85 etc.
The figures from the paper Bazzer quoted were for average people.
Some will be carrying some kind of condition. Some will not. Some conditions will be more well managed than others.
That is the nature of average.
Lots of people, who would otherwise have had years of life to look forward to, with or without underlying conditions have been killed by covid whether or not by covid alone.
The other point I was making was that life expectancy at age (say) eighty is greater than life expectancy at birth.
If you consider 100 people with a life expectancy of eighty (at birth) and by the time you reach eighty say 50 have already died at an average age of seventy, the remaining 50 might expect to have 10 years left to maintain the average life expectancy at birth.
(this is a simplification since the average rate of death increases with age, but I hope it makes the point)
Edit Upped the ages in the example by 10 years to bring it more into line with the John Campbell video.
Second edit to Culzean I suggest you re-read (or read) the link I gave a couple of days ago
in post Reply #377 on: January 20, 2022, 03:36:03 PM »
https://www.futurity.org/cdc-covid-19-comorbidities-2436032-2/
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Christmas Eve 2020 my 90 year old father, who had prostate cancer, went into hospital with a bad water infection, he was so weak that he could hardly stand. After a week or two they cured his water infection and were giving him physiotherapy to get him more mobile and my mother was expecting him home.
We then had a phone call to say he had developed a bit of a cough and had tested positive for covid, he had only had his first jab the week before the test. The following week I visited him in a covid ward to goodbye, he was unconscious but I could hear him struggling to breathe, 24 hours later he passed away.
Covid was mentioned on the death certificate but also the other conditions, I don't know how long he would have lived if he hadn't caught covid but it could have been a year or two.
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Sorry to hear about that.
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Yesterday's Indy Sage meeting.
After the presentation of the figures the discussion was devoted to long covid and the effeccts it could have on the future of children and on the economy.
Most people affected by long covid are frontline workers working in healthcare, social care,education, retail etc.
Many are unable to work. Some have been forced to retire or have even been sacked.
Children will find immediate difficulties in sitting exams and the long term effects are unknown.
If you watch nothing else, the last five minutes in answer to a general question are worth watching.
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Extract from an article on the efficacy of lockdowns on death rates in UK, England dropped most restrictions while Wales, NI and Scotland kept restrictions in place.
But what we can do is to compare Covid death rates in England, where most restrictions were lifted on 19 July until Plan B came in last month, with death rates in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, where tougher restrictions outlasted those in England. In Scotland, the mask mandate was never lifted. Vaccine passports for large venues were introduced in the country on 1 October last year, in Wales on 11 October and in Northern Ireland on 29 November. On work-from-home guidance (reintroduced last month), Wales was militant — it became a criminal offence to go to work if you could feasibly do your job at home. Northern Ireland retained restrictions on the number of people who could meet indoors.
And the results? Since 19 July, England has had 21,098 Covid deaths — a rate of 37.3 per 100,000 people. Wales had 1,195, a rate of 37.7, Scotland had 2,422, a rate of 44.3 and Northern Ireland had 914, a rate of 48.2.
Here is link to article - behind a paywall but try it..
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/did-plan-b-work-
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As expected now that they have fully accepted the mildness of Omicron, a climbdown ( in all but name, as the policy is now 'under review' ) by Sajid David on 'no jab- no job' policy for care and NHS workers. He realised the damage the policy would do ( and has already done to care sector, with 50,000 leaving for other jobs, on top of the already 115,000 existing vacancies ) that the affect of an estimated 77,000 NHS staff leaving would have.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/plan-to-live-with-covid-will-focus-on-jabs-treatment-and-testing-sajid-javid-says-1423136?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020220126%20%20House%20Ads%20%20SM+CID_e655969990aa3df481f14d5f9ae5895c
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A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, with no other co-morbidities, "from" covid as opposed to "With" it. The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 ...
It's a bit late, but ONS have issued a comment about that use of their data:
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2022/01/26/to-say-only-17000-people-have-died-from-covid-19-is-highly-misleading/
Summary:
"It’s being claimed that the true number of deaths caused by COVID-19 in England and Wales is ‘only’ around 17,000 people. The claim is based on ONS data on the number of coronavirus deaths where no other health conditions were noted on the death certificate. However, as James Tucker [ONS head of health and life events analysis] explains, to suggest that figure represents the real extent of deaths from the virus is both factually incorrect and highly misleading."
Sadly, like all fake news, the damage is done because people will have seen and believed the original story but won't see the rebuttal.
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A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, with no other co-morbidities, "from" covid as opposed to "With" it. The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 ...
It's a bit late, but ONS have issued a comment about that use of their data:
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2022/01/26/to-say-only-17000-people-have-died-from-covid-19-is-highly-misleading/
Summary:
"It’s being claimed that the true number of deaths caused by COVID-19 in England and Wales is ‘only’ around 17,000 people. The claim is based on ONS data on the number of coronavirus deaths where no other health conditions were noted on the death certificate. However, as James Tucker [ONS head of health and life events analysis] explains, to suggest that figure represents the real extent of deaths from the virus is both factually incorrect and highly misleading."
Sadly, like all fake news, the damage is done because people will have seen and believed the original story but won't see the rebuttal.
That was the number of healthy people where covid was 'the only' cause of death on the death certificate - the ONS cannot refute that... All the other deaths had co-morbidities. I guess the ONS was too truthful and have come under pressure from 'various people' to retract their first honest figure.
Seems anything certain people do not like is easily labelled 'fake news' where others see the whole reaction to covid as misguided and a massive over-reaction, not really fake news, just really bad judgement. I know that hindsight is 20/20 but the whole SAGE forecast thisk is so bad that a blind man on a galloping horse could see how 'over the top' it was - and the shocking thing is that even now, even people who have had and recovered from Covid are being advised to 'get boosted', seems that Department of health has seen the light though, they are advising Sajid Javid to drop the whole 'no jab-no job' thing, which could cause massive problems with NHS staffing ( as it has already done in Care sector ), and accept that having covid antibodies from previous infection is actually better than a jab from a vaccine of dubious safety and efficacy, and it looks as though a backdoor climbdown will happen, without any big publicity.
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A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, with no other co-morbidities, "from" covid as opposed to "With" it. The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 ...
It's a bit late, but ONS have issued a comment about that use of their data:
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2022/01/26/to-say-only-17000-people-have-died-from-covid-19-is-highly-misleading/
Summary:
"It’s being claimed that the true number of deaths caused by COVID-19 in England and Wales is ‘only’ around 17,000 people. The claim is based on ONS data on the number of coronavirus deaths where no other health conditions were noted on the death certificate. However, as James Tucker [ONS head of health and life events analysis] explains, to suggest that figure represents the real extent of deaths from the virus is both factually incorrect and highly misleading."
Sadly, like all fake news, the damage is done because people will have seen and believed the original story but won't see the rebuttal.
Yes.
Unfortunately the damage has been done and most people will only see the versions reported in the right wing press and internet misrepresentations
This was debunked by Emma Monk in this article.
https://westcountryvoices.co.uk/debunking-the-claim-that-only-17-371-people-have-died-of-covid-in-the-uk/
And again in this afternoon's Indie Sage meeting. From about 33 minutes.
but few people will see these.
I haven't had time to watch all of Indie Sage yet.
Will hopefully post more later.
Edit added screenshot
Edit added Indy Sage slides (pdf)
https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/DR-Presentation.pptx
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Seems anything certain people do not like is easily labelled 'fake news' where others see the whole reaction to covid as misguided and a massive over-reaction ...
If, by "certain people", you mean me, then you misunderstand. I do not regard anything I disagree with as "fake news", I will change my mind if presented with a convincing argument. But I will call out information that is not soundly based or doesn't stand up to scrutiny, because that is simply misleading. We can't have an intelligent discussion - which is what I hope we can have here - based on misleading or incorrect facts.
In this case, selectively using a subset of data as evidence that the covid death rate has been massively over-quoted is simply not correct. You said:
A freedom of information request was submitted to the ONS, asking for the true figure of deaths, ... "from" covid ... The answer 17,300, yes ,you read it right 17,300 ... About 10% of the claimed deaths 'from' covid which had been used by the government and SAGE to justify draconian restrictions and lockdowns, wrecking the economy in the process, plunging the country into depression and increasing the National Debt by over £800 billion to £2.3 trillion
ONS have clarified what their data means, and reiterated that the excess death toll (ie the number of people who have passed away due to covid) is far greater. We can discuss whether the economic effects you mention were an over-reaction to the pandemic (was it a price too high to pay?). But the best estimate of the number of deaths due to covid can only be provided by the excess mortality rate, and that is a quantifiable number.
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It is pure speculation to guess how much 'life' remaining the already aged and very sick people who were the vast majority of 'with covid' deaths (as compared to 'from covid' ) - The facts are that over 75% were >85 with multiple co-morbidities, and 95% were over 60 likewise. This has to be balanced against other damages done by lockdowns to other peoples health, the economy and the future deaths caused by lack of medical care and diagnosis during last 22 months, which is unquantifiable. Excess deaths proves nothing except that by and large many of UK population are unhealthy, and as WHO said in March 2020 'are the very people this virus will target', bravo to NHS for keeping very chronically sick people alive for longer, but those people are never going to do well when a new disease shows up. Diabetes is also endemic in UK, much ( but not all ) of it caused by obesity and unhealthy eating, that diabetes is so prevalent in UK, is a major drain on the NHS, is to a great degree preventable and was one of the major co-morbidities of a covid death is a national scandal.
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You keep on repeating yourself.
Changing the record.
Good on Joni Mitchell for joining Neil Young in protest at Joe Rogan for spouting this sort of misinformation on Spotify.
Unfortunately at the moment unless it becomes a mass movement the only people to lose out will be Young and Mitchell financially and old farts like me who might want to listen to Neil Young and Joni Mitchell.
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Extract from an article on the efficacy of lockdowns on death rates in UK, England dropped most restrictions while Wales, NI and Scotland kept restrictions in place.
But what we can do is to compare Covid death rates in England, where most restrictions were lifted on 19 July until Plan B came in last month, with death rates in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, where tougher restrictions outlasted those in England. In Scotland, the mask mandate was never lifted. Vaccine passports for large venues were introduced in the country on 1 October last year, in Wales on 11 October and in Northern Ireland on 29 November. On work-from-home guidance (reintroduced last month), Wales was militant — it became a criminal offence to go to work if you could feasibly do your job at home. Northern Ireland retained restrictions on the number of people who could meet indoors.
And the results? Since 19 July, England has had 21,098 Covid deaths — a rate of 37.3 per 100,000 people. Wales had 1,195, a rate of 37.7, Scotland had 2,422, a rate of 44.3 and Northern Ireland had 914, a rate of 48.2.
Here is link to article - behind a paywall but try it..
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/did-plan-b-work-
Oops missed this one.
Again you are conflating "lockdowns" with "restrictions" or even "precautions"
The prevalence of covid and hence the highest death rate has moved around the UK. Sometimes highest in London, sometimes higher in other regions of England, sometimes higher in Scotland Wales or NI.
Perhaps your Spectator article writer (Ross Clark again) has selectively chosen a period when prevalence was higher in Scotland and Wales than England.
I don't know where he got his figures for the period quoted ( I could only find total deaths up to the present date) but if you take the pandemic as a whole there have been until today according to official figures
134875 deaths in England, 10275 deaths in Scotland, 6804 in Wales and3100 in NI
Taking the populations as 56.55 million for England 5.4 million in Scotland, 3.1million for Wales and 1.8 million for NI gives figures of
2400 per million for England 1900 per million for Scotland 2160 per million for Wales and 1720 per million for NI.
(If anyone can find the number of deaths in the four countries up to the 19th of July, we could check Mr Clark's figures)
Most of the policy has been dictated by the UK government which controls the money.
The devolved governments could only deviate slightly.
What is worse is comparing the UK death rate per million with other countries on worldometer.
Given the advantages the UK has had with the vaccination programme the UK has not fared well.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Edit changed link
Edit added bit in brackets.
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(If anyone can find the number of deaths in the four countries up to the 19th of July, we could check Mr Clark's figures)
Can be found here https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom
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Thanks.
Using these figures with the figures with the ones I quoted the other day gives the following:-
Deaths since July 19th
England 134875-113442 = 21433
Scotland 10275-7897=2378
Wales 6804 -5594 = 1210
NI 3100-2164 =936
Dividing by the respective populations gives figures of England 379per million, Scotland 440per million, Wales 390per million and NI 520 per million.
Which given the discrepancies of a few days and different methods of counting deaths is in the same ballpark as the figures quoted by Ross Clark.
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Thanks.
Using these figures with the figures with the ones I quoted the other day gives the following:-
Deaths since July 19th
England 134875-113442 = 21433
Scotland 10275-7897=2378
Wales 6804 -5594 = 1210
NI 3100-2164 =936
Dividing by the respective populations gives figures of England 379per million, Scotland 440per million, Wales 390per million and NI 520 per million.
Which given the discrepancies of a few days and different methods of counting deaths is in the same ballpark as the figures quoted by Ross Clark.
Which basically says:
either the population of England were healthier than the other countries
or
the measures taken in England were more effective
or a combination of both.
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Or there was some other reason.
Eg. There was a Rangers Celtic match on the 29th of August and there was Cop 26 in November and the Steps concert at the end of November or maybe the colder weather and earlier onset of darker nights meant people were driven inside earlier.
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You keep on repeating yourself.
Pot and kettle ? Good facts bear repeating many times.
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Seems Sajid Javid is about to drop the 'no jab- no job' mandate for NHS workers, it is one thing to call normal population 'crazy anti-vaxxers' but many of the NHS 'refusnicks ' are medical people and know about vaccines and the risks vs hazard ( vaccine vs covid ) for normally healthy people, and decided against the vaccine.
Clip from an article..
'Health Secretary Sajid Javid now looks set to drop his plans to sack unvaccinated NHS staff. It was almost inevitable given the practical difficulties that come with sacking more than 70,000 workers who showed little sign of changing their minds — all while the NHS is desperately trying to catch up with missed treatments following the pandemic.
Javid is expected to say that the far milder Omicron variant has changed his calculation: Covid is no longer a threat that would necessitate compulsory vaccination. In reality, his bluff was about to be called. NHS staff would have to be vaccinated by Thursday to be double-jabbed in time for the 1 April deadline — and there was no sign that the unvaccinated (especially those with recovery immunity) would change their minds in any significant number.'
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Re-infections now included in English and NI Covid cases.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/daily-reported-cases-covid-19-110856379.html
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/spike-covid-cases-england-reinfections-233038394.html
Edit added second link
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A previous infection with any variant seems to give immunity against serious illness from other variants. Coronavirus family include common cold, for which there has never been a vaccine. SARS-Cov-2 appears to be going the same way as common cold and will and become a 'background' illness that everyone just learns to lives with, and maybe only kills or causes complications in the already very ill or immuno-suppressed.
Quote from your link..
'While the inclusion of reinfections means the case-fatality risk – the proportion of people reported to be diagnosed with Covid who go on to die – will fall, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at the University of Cambridge, cautioned the measure remains problematic'
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A previous infection with any variant seems to give immunity against serious illness from other variants.
A previous infection with another variant does not necessarily give immunity against omicron, otherwise there would be no reinfections.
Omicron does not appear to be as severe but you are jumping to conclusions again.
Coronavirus family include common cold, for which there has never been a vaccine. SARS-Cov-2 appears to be going the same way as common cold and will and become a 'background' illness that everyone just learns to lives with, and maybe only kills or causes complications in the already very ill or immuno-suppressed.
and again.
Quote from your link..
'While the inclusion of reinfections means the case-fatality risk – the proportion of people reported to be diagnosed with Covid who go on to die – will fall, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at the University of Cambridge, cautioned the measure remains problematic'
Fuller quote
"While the inclusion of reinfections means the case-fatality risk – the proportion of people reported to be diagnosed with Covid who go on to die – will fall, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at the University of Cambridge, cautioned the measure remains problematic.
“We have always known that the daily number of reported cases was a substantial undercount of the actual number of infections – the ONS Covid Infection Survey shows that we have to at least double the daily count,” he said.
“Including reinfections will be an improvement, and will reduce the apparent case-fatality rate, but nobody should have taken this very seriously anyway. The case-fatality ratio is inevitably an overestimate of what is the better measure – the infection fatality ratio, ie the proportion of those who are infected who die, whether or not they become confirmed cases.”
https://www.channel4.com/news/covid-reinfections-now-included-in-government-daily-figures
Edi added Channel 4 link
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Interesting study from John Hopkins University in USA, their large study found that lockdowns 'had a minute' effect on covid deaths, bit of a read - 62 pages ( attached PDF ).
[attachment deleted by admin]
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Air quality, ventilation and filtration.
Slides available from this page. (Latest numbers)
https://www.independentsage.org/weekly-briefing-4th-february-2022/
Edit added link to slides (pdf)
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Good article in nature.
COVID-19: endemic doesn’t mean harmless
Extract.
"There is a widespread, rosy misconception that viruses evolve over time to become more benign. This is not the case: there is no predestined evolutionary outcome for a virus to become more benign, especially ones, such as SARS-CoV-2, in which most transmission happens before the virus causes severe disease. Consider that Alpha and Delta are more virulent than the strain first found in Wuhan, China. The second wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic was far more deadly than the first."
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00155-x
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Quote from Spectator article, The South Africans were pressured by governments around the world, including UK to keep quiet about how mild Omicron was... shocking, how many more times have we been lied to in last 2 years ? Seems we were only allowed to 'listen to the science' after it had been massaged and filtered.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/omicron-doctor-attacks-uk-government-pressure-
'With case rates falling and Omicron (hopefully) in decline, it's a good time to remember some of the more hysterical predictions about the last Covid variant. For the South African doctor who discovered the Omicron strain has today given an interview to German newspaper Welt in which she reveals she was 'pressured' into describing the variant as more dangerous than it really is.
Dr Angelique Coetzee was one of the first to report the new variant in November last year and said it caused 'mild' symptoms for those in her country. But she claims she was told by scientists and politicians from around the globe that her description was wrong – and specifically references Britain as being one of those countries which tried to discourage her findings. Discussing the response of Western countries to the variant, she replied:
“They definitely overreacted. When we tried to argue that it was a mild disease, because of the number of mutations, everyone said that wasn't true. People didn't want to believe it could be mild. You have to listen to the science, but you have to take into account the clinical picture that the doctors describe – what they see, because they are the first point of contact. And then both have to be reconciled. You always have to keep the balance between the clinical picture and the science – that didn't happen here."
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It would have been dangerous to extrapolate South African findings to UK in December for a number of reasons.
South African population younger.
South African population less vaccinated but more likely to have acquired immunity from previous infection.
Summer in SA Winter in UK.
Even if Omicron turned out to be milder it was not known how much milder. Omicron was known to be much more transmissable. The increased transmissability might have more than compensated for the decreased severity in terms of hospitals being able to cope.
Until the relative weightings of severity and transmissability were known it was prudent to be careful.
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Until the relative weightings of severity and transmissability were known it was prudent to be careful.
Number of vaccinated in SA = 20%
number of vaccinated in UK = >90%
They hid the truth from us = unforgivable
John Hopkins Uni major study - Lockdowns = useless...
also guess what, Omicron so mild no booster was needed except for Pfizer profits.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60319947?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020220210%20%20House%20Ads%20%20SM+CID_abc30bfd3c78c4fad98fb376cf93b41e
About time too, second best decision after the one to not lock England down over Christmas and New Year....
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Omicron so mild no booster was needed except for Pfizer profits.
My booster did nothing for Pfizer. We got the Moderna vaccine here.
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Yes - we got Moderna as well for the boosters.
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I think the idea was to give a different booster from the previous vaccines given.
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2 x AZ then a Pfizer boost here.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60319947?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020220210%20%20House%20Ads%20%20SM+CID_abc30bfd3c78c4fad98fb376cf93b41e
About time too, second best decision after the one to not lock England down over Christmas and New Year....
<irony mode: on >
Bit of a bummer for those folks who are unable* to be vaccinated. They will either be petrified to leave their homes, or if they do have the temerity to venture out will be at much greater risk of an adverse outcome. Still they’re probably not economically significant and therefore fair game for sacrifice (literally) at the altar of Mammon.
<Irony mode: off>
*I distinguish between “unable” and “unwilling”; the latter can take their chances.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60319947?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020220210%20%20House%20Ads%20%20SM+CID_abc30bfd3c78c4fad98fb376cf93b41e
About time too, second best decision after the one to not lock England down over Christmas and New Year....
Both influenced by a desire to appease Tory backbenchers and appeal to gullible voters rather than "follow the Science", with a view to saving Johnson's job.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60319947?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020220210%20%20House%20Ads%20%20SM+CID_abc30bfd3c78c4fad98fb376cf93b41e
About time too, second best decision after the one to not lock England down over Christmas and New Year....
<irony mode: on >
Bit of a bummer for those folks who are unable* to be vaccinated. They will either be petrified to leave their homes, or if they do have the temerity to venture out will be at much greater risk of an adverse outcome. Still they’re probably not economically significant and therefore fair game for sacrifice (literally) at the altar of Mammon.
<Irony mode: off>
*I distinguish between “unable” and “unwilling”; the latter can take their chances.
Better to have a few people shielding than the whole country locked down and economy in tatters, it is a democracy ( rule for the majority by the majority ) after all ( although I had my doubts about the democracy bit over some decisions made 'for our good ) -
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60319947?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020220210%20%20House%20Ads%20%20SM+CID_abc30bfd3c78c4fad98fb376cf93b41e
About time too, second best decision after the one to not lock England down over Christmas and New Year....
Both influenced by a desire to appease Tory backbenchers and appeal to gullible voters rather than "follow the Science", with a view to saving Johnson's job.
Well the science seems to be that omicron is very mild ( I can attest to that ), that infections are steadily dropping ( positive tests down 25% since last week ) and hospital admissions are plummeting and over 50% of people in hospital covid wards are 'incidental' admissions, which means they were admitted for something entirely unrelated to covid and only found to have the virus ( without symptoms ) when tested in hospital, so they had to be moved to a covid ward, which means over 5000 of the UK hospital covid cases are not being treated for covid.
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positive tests down 25% since last week
People are no longer reporting when they test positive so these numbers will go down. If only half of those testing positive report they are positive then the 25% fall is actually a substantial rise.
@culzean Did you report your positive test?
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60319947?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020220210%20%20House%20Ads%20%20SM+CID_abc30bfd3c78c4fad98fb376cf93b41e
About time too, second best decision after the one to not lock England down over Christmas and New Year....
Both influenced by a desire to appease Tory backbenchers and appeal to gullible voters rather than "follow the Science", with a view to saving Johnson's job.
Well the science seems to be that omicron is very mild ( I can attest to that ), that infections are steadily dropping ( positive tests down 25% since last week ) and hospital admissions are plummeting and over 50% of people in hospital covid wards are 'incidental' admissions, which means they were admitted for something entirely unrelated to covid and only found to have the virus ( without symptoms ) when tested in hospital, so they had to be moved to a covid ward, which means over 5000 of the UK hospital covid cases are not being treated for covid.
~ 10000 people were admitted to hospital in the last week with Covid in the last week and ~1400 died. Even although the numbers are decreasing they are still high.
Covid is mutating and will continue to do so until the whole world is protected.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-happens-after-the-omicron-wave-passes?c=1316278299645
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60319947?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020220210%20%20House%20Ads%20%20SM+CID_abc30bfd3c78c4fad98fb376cf93b41e
About time too, second best decision after the one to not lock England down over Christmas and New Year....
Both influenced by a desire to appease Tory backbenchers and appeal to gullible voters rather than "follow the Science", with a view to saving Johnson's job.
Well the science seems to be that omicron is very mild ( I can attest to that ), that infections are steadily dropping ( positive tests down 25% since last week ) and hospital admissions are plummeting and over 50% of people in hospital covid wards are 'incidental' admissions, which means they were admitted for something entirely unrelated to covid and only found to have the virus ( without symptoms ) when tested in hospital, so they had to be moved to a covid ward, which means over 5000 of the UK hospital covid cases are not being treated for covid.
~ 10000 people were admitted to hospital in the last week with Covid in the last week and ~1400 died. Even although the numbers are decreasing they are still high.
Covid is mutating and will continue to do so until the whole world is protected.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-happens-after-the-omicron-wave-passes?c=1316278299645
Total number in UK hospital covid wards at present, 10,700 - of which 52% are 'incidental covid patients' admitted for other procedures or treatments and in no danger from covid, but have the virus without symptoms. It is the aim of viruses to spread their DNA ( it is after all what they are made of, it is all they have ) as far as possible, the variants that kill or severely disable their host do not win that particular race and will die out or be pushed out by the more successful milder strains. The Coronavirus is well known for mutating and we simply have to accept lockdowns are useless, protection from vaccines is very short lived and we have to learn to co-exist with SARS-Cov-2 and not let it hold the world hostage. The average hospital stay is about 50% or less than previous variants. I would give SAGE members a Prozac prescription and tell them their services are no longer required.
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@culzean Did you report your positive test?
I take it that's a no then.
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Better to have a few people shielding than the whole country locked down and economy in tatters, it is a democracy ( rule for the majority by the majority ) after all
That’s the problem, isn’t it. A small number of people have to stay locked away and have a sh*t life in order that others can make money. That’s not democracy, that’s just thoroughly unpleasant. I’ve always felt that one of the markers of a civilised society is a willingness to support everyone in that society by reducing the risks to them (that’s why we have the NHS and arrangements for social care). So it just doesn’t sound right that government policy will now create a sub-class of people who either have to stay locked away or are subjected to an higher risk.
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I would give SAGE members a Prozac prescription and tell them their services are no longer required.
Best have them stick around in case another variant comes to bite Boris in the bum.
https://twitter.com/Brown666W/status/1491472149193834500/photo/1
Edit Added Peston Twitter link
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Better to have a few people shielding than the whole country locked down and economy in tatters, it is a democracy ( rule for the majority by the majority ) after all
That’s the problem, isn’t it. A small number of people have to stay locked away and have a sh*t life in order that others can make money. That’s not democracy, that’s just thoroughly unpleasant. I’ve always felt that one of the markers of a civilised society is a willingness to support everyone in that society by reducing the risks to them (that’s why we have the NHS and arrangements for social care). So it just doesn’t sound right that government policy will now create a sub-class of people who either have to stay locked away or are subjected to an higher risk.
It is a good economy that allows all the services like the NHS and social care and unemployment benefits to actually operate, and for people to have a decent life rather than a subsistence one. Locking down 99% of population to protect 1% just does not make sense at any level. One thing is for sure a lot of the benefits of living in UK will disappear if economy tanks and inflation takes hold, which normally leads to higher unemployment. The basis of a civilised society is a sound economy. 'Money makes the world go round'....
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Locking down 99% of population to protect 1% just does not make sense at any level.
Firstly, where do your numbers come from? I've not seen any reliable figures for the number of people who cannot be vaccinated (or have compromised immune systems so the vaccine is less effective), but anecdotally I know several so I suspect the number is significant. The ones I know are not happy about the implications for their quality of life.
Secondly, who is suggesting a lockdown (I didn't)? The topic you raised, and that I commented on, was the ending of the isolation requirement for people with positive tests. It seems entirely reasonable to me that those folks should be required to isolate in order to protect the vulnerable in society from a disease that could kill them.
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Nobody wants lockdowns.
Apart from an early, initial hard lockdown, they are a sign of failure and should only be used as a last resort when sensible precautions fail.
To ignore science, remove all precautions and testing and wish the virus away is foolish.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/boris-johnson-is-gambling-with-our-safety-in-shameless-attempt-to-keep-his-job/ar-AATHGiF?ocid=winp1taskbar
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/columnists/ministers-no-longer-following-the-science-with-covid-their-luck-may-run-out-1453280
Edit Added links
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Better to have a few people shielding than the whole country locked down and economy in tatters, it is a democracy ( rule for the majority by the majority ) after all
That’s the problem, isn’t it. A small number of people have to stay locked away and have a sh*t life in order that others can make money. That’s not democracy, that’s just thoroughly unpleasant. I’ve always felt that one of the markers of a civilised society is a willingness to support everyone in that society by reducing the risks to them (that’s why we have the NHS and arrangements for social care). So it just doesn’t sound right that government policy will now create a sub-class of people who either have to stay locked away or are subjected to an higher risk.
It is a good economy that allows all the services like the NHS and social care and unemployment benefits to actually operate, and for people to have a decent life rather than a subsistence one. Locking down 99% of population to protect 1% just does not make sense at any level. One thing is for sure a lot of the benefits of living in UK will disappear if economy tanks and inflation takes hold, which normally leads to higher unemployment. The basis of a civilised society is a sound economy. 'Money makes the world go round'....
This discussion is about isolation, not lockdown. By your argument, you would be totally fine with a Covid Positive Prince Charles going round to his mum's for tea. In reality, he is a sensible and considerate person and unlikely to put HMQ at such risk, but that does not apply to everyone. It makes no sense to me that it should be perfectly fine for someone with a positive Covid result to be going about their business as if nothing was the matter.
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As others have pointed out, why are we talking about lockdowns? As things stand at present we have almost all our freedoms back. I have been to the pub twice in the last few weeks, been out for a meal twice as well and been shopping. I could also go to a football match with 50,000 fans inside.
So I genuinely don't understand why anybody has a problem with continuing to test and isolate until the thing is indisputably back in its box. We keep being told we have the fastest growing economy in the G7 so the remaining restrictions are not affecting that.
Finally this move is nakedly political. I notice Whitty and Vallance have been "disappeared." The vulnerable must be very worried.
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This discussion is about isolation, not lockdown. By your argument, you would be totally fine with a Covid Positive Prince Charles going round to his mum's for tea. In reality, he is a sensible and considerate person and unlikely to put HMQ at such risk, but that does not apply to everyone. It makes no sense to me that it should be perfectly fine for someone with a positive Covid result to be going about their business as if nothing was the matter.
An awful lot of people ( or a lot of awful people ? ) were still pushing for lockdown to be continued over Christmas and New year, the funny thing is that the ones that carried restriction through all had higher death rate per 100,000 than England. Omicron is a free vaccine.
Some fully vaxxed people are still spreading the virus, but we are into the endgame now with a mild variant ( which was forecast by everyone except SAGE, who then tried to hide the evidence of its mildness ) - need to isolate will soon be removed, and the need for masks etc also removed. Fine by me if people still want to wear masks and cross the road rather than share a pavement with another person who is unmasked an 'may' have covid. The NHS and care sector shot itself in the foot with their 'no jab-no job' mandate, and are now frantically now trying to recruit people because of all the ones that have left and also to try to recover from the damage lockdowns did to the NHS, and the GPs' who hid from their patients.
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The main topic of IndieSage briefing this week was long covid in children but inevitably the topic of the government's ideas for living with covid, abandoning self isolation was discussed by Indie Sage this afternoon.
(In the introduction . Then from 17m30s to 20m. Then from 50m - 60m)
Update in cases hospitalisations and deaths etc. 3m- 17m
Long covid in children 25m -50m
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Tae see wirsel's as ithers see us
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/11/world-experts-react-to-england-ending-covid-curbs
But then maybe
they're a' oot o'step bar oor Boris
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I'm going to continue to avoid public transport and wear a FFP2 mask where I deem appropriate for the foreseeable future.
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"To a Louse" by Robert Burns ,2022 version
O wad some Power the giftie gie Boris
To see hiself as ithers see him !
It wad frae mony a blunder free us,
An' foolish notion:
What airs in dress an' gait wad lea'e us,
An' ev'n devotion!
And "to a mouse " , 2022 version
But Mousie, thou art no thy-lane,
In proving foresight may be a strain :
The worst laid schemes o’ Mice an’ Men
Gang aft agley,
An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain,
For promis’d joy!
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To a Haggis ?
Foul fa' yer smirkin', lyin' face,
Chief pudden o' the Tory race,
Abune them a' ye tak yer place,
Mogg, Gove or Truss,
For a' oor sakes, resign at pace,
Go paint a bus.
Edit.
I was looking for something else to parody and found the Twa Dogs : a Tale.
Rich man's dog and working man's dog in conversation.
No need to parody. Some things haven't changed in 250 years.
See verses 20 and 21 (Beginning Caesar
Haith lad, ye little ken about it.)
https://www.scottishpoetrylibrary.org.uk/poem/the-twa-dogs/
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Good analogy by Devi Sridhar
“Isolation is there to avoid someone who’s infectious infecting someone else. I actually see it as a public health protection in the same way as we have smoking laws against indoor smoking and laws against driving when you’re under the influence.”
So said Edinburgh University professor Devi Sridhar, who has become one of TV’s go-to public health experts during the pandemic. Sridhar was talking about the government’s plans to remove the requirement in England to isolate when you are infected with Covid.
The problem with this, as Sridhar pointed out, is that it gives a licence to infected people to ride a bus or train, to go shopping, to see a film or a show, to go to the pub, spreading a deadly disease.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/covid-rules-no-need-to-isolate-clinically-vulnerable-b2013710.html
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I will never visit a pub, go to a theatre or cinema or eat out again if Scotland chooses to go down that route.
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Good analogy by Devi Sridhar
Are there 2 Devi Sridhars ?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/19/science-covid-ineradicable-disease-prevention
'In England the prime minister announced today that restrictions including masking requirements will be removed from next week, and self-isolation requirements will be reviewed in March. I think this is largely reasonable – all governments face the question of how to approach this new landscape.'
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Good analogy by Devi Sridhar
Are there 2 Devi Sridhars ?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/19/science-covid-ineradicable-disease-prevention
'In England the prime minister announced today that restrictions including masking requirements will be removed from next week, and self-isolation requirements will be reviewed in March. I think this is largely reasonable – all governments face the question of how to approach this new landscape.'
Not as far as I know.
Your article is from 19th January and predates Johnson's announcement on dropping self isolation rules. Indeed your quote said that he would review them in March.
Other quote from your article.
"What does all this mean in terms of living with Covid-19? We still need to test. We still need to vaccinate and combat misinformation. We need to encourage people to wear medical-grade masks such as N95s in crowded and indoor settings. Employers need to recognise and support employees who have been identified as in a shielding group. We also need to review isolation and other policies so they remain safe, but are less disruptive to the functioning of society."
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/may-actually-fine-gamble-scotland-050000002.html
Edit added second link
Quotes from 2nd link from Jillian Evans, head of health intelligence at NHS Grampian,
"You absolutely have to be open to emerging evidence, but hard and fast deadlines ahead of schedule - treating the virus like it's a capital project where you come in under budget and ahead of time - it's not like that.
"What will happen with waning vaccine protection, and waning immunity, which will inevitably occur as we go through the summer months?
"What will happen will high levels of virus circulating in our country and abroad, and the potential for new and more worrisome variants? We are perpetually living with uncertainty."
and from Professor Rowland Kao, chair of veterinary epidemiology and data science at Edinburgh University.
"[Ending self-isolation] is clearly not a 'phased return'. It's a jump into the deep end and 'let's see what happens'."
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She said 'we have to learn to live with this virus', which is exactly what Boris is planning... Good old England leads the way again.
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Learning to live with the virus does not just mean giving up all precautions at once and hoping the virus goes away or mutates into a milder form.
" Living with the virus “is an acknowledgment that eradication of SARS-CoV-2, like what we did with smallpox, is not feasible,” said Maria Sundaram, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Marshfield Clinic Research Institute.
Instead, we’ll need to rely on an arsenal of tools — including vaccines, paid sick leave and masks — to coexist with the virus while reducing our own risk and protecting others."
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/12/world/scientists-prepare-for-the-next-phase-of-learning-to-live-with-covid.html
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-england-may-scrap-all-restrictions-in-two-weeks/
Edit added New Scientist link
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There appears to be no justification for the government's proposed removal of free testing, reporting and self isolation in the minutes of the latest Sage meeting 10/2/2022.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-105-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-10-february-2022/sage-105-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-10-february-2022
Indeed
2 8. There is no reason why future dominant variants should be similarly or less severe than Omicron, which may be an exception in having lower severity. The next dominant variant in the UK (and internationally) could have similar pathogenicity to previous variants, such as Delta. The range of evolutionary possibilities also includes substantial change to immune recognition.
and sections 3 and 4
would suggest it really isn't such a clever idea.
Edit see also 1 5 In fact read the whole lot (5 minute read)
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Children in Scotland and Wales to be offered Covid Vaccinations.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/covid-vaccine-in-scotland-5-to-11-year-old-children-to-be-offered-jabs-nicola-sturgeon-says/ar-AATVCz2?ocid=uxbndlbing
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Well, that was the practice run. Now we wait for the real thing. :o
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Well kids with no particular vulnerability to covid are being offered a largely untested therapy, with short lived immunity ? Asylum keys have definitely gone missing...
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I don't dig into the data but what is encouraging is the daily 16:00 coronavirus dashboard UK map has gone from a mass of black to large areas of blue and pink so it looks like it is improving. Hopefully.
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Well kids with no particular vulnerability to covid are being offered a largely untested therapy, with short lived immunity ? Asylum keys have definitely gone missing...
Largely untested? Hundreds of millions of people have now been testing this vaccine for over a year now.
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Well kids with no particular vulnerability to covid are being offered a largely untested therapy, with short lived immunity ? Asylum keys have definitely gone missing...
Kids go to school. Vaccination will lessen interruption to lessons and infections of teachers.
Kids have parents many of whom will be essential workers.
Kids have grand parents and great grandparents some of whom will be vulnerable.
Kids may be affected by long covid and possibly susceptibility to other diseases in the future.
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Well kids with no particular vulnerability to covid are being offered a largely untested therapy, with short lived immunity ? Asylum keys have definitely gone missing...
Kids go to school. Vaccination will lessen interruption to lessons and infections of teachers.
Kids have parents many of whom will be essential workers.
Kids have grand parents and great grandparents some of whom will be vulnerable.
Kids may be affected by long covid and possibly susceptibility to other diseases in the future.
Being vaccinated does not stop people passing virus to others.........
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Being vaccinated does not stop people passing virus to others.........
It vastly reduces the chances of it.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/
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"Being vaccinated does not stop people passing virus to others........."
But it reduces transmissibility.
"Transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 among fully vaccinated individuals. Vaccine effectiveness studies have conclusively demonstrated the benefit of COVID-19 vaccines in reducing individual symptomatic and severe disease, resulting in reduced hospitalisations and intensive care unit admissions."
Worldwide stats
Cases.417,809,571 Total Deaths 5,851,050
Vaccinations given - doses. 10,257,109,696
But never mind, vaccination has not been adequately tested and is not needed as Covid only kills a few people. 8) 8)
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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Never mind. If they scrap the testing as well we'll never know.
No tests = no cases.
Simples.
Trump had that worked out ages ago. ::)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/16/scaling-back-free-covid-tests-could-hinder-uk-if-new-variant-strikes-say-health-chiefs
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/trump-no-covid-19-tests-no-covid-19_n_5ee7cc27c5b69e917f1d3b2b
Edit added second link
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But never mind, vaccination has not been adequately tested and is not needed as Covid only kills a few people. 8) 8)
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
You really ought to check how many people die in the world in a normal year, then multiply by 2. The figure is 500,000 + in UK alone. I know those in your link are supposed to be 'excess deaths' - but deaths in UK in January were actually 9% lower than the 5 year average deaths.
A great many of the obese, old and frail who would die in a normal year did not die from whatever multiple chronic heart, lung, diabetic conditions they were suffering from, apparently they died from covid - except they did not, but we were told they did... some may have died a bit earlier than they otherwise would have done, but 75% of deaths were over 85 years of age. The press also made great headlines out of 'cases' (which were the big, scary numbers ) but the hospitalised and deaths were hidden away in the small print. Even when Omicron took over from Delta and the case / hospitalisation ratio went way down the media still concentrated on cases. We have been shamelessly coerced and lied to during the last 2 years by the very people we are supposed to trust, no wonder trust in governments is at an all time low all around the world.
It is entirely wrong to give vaccines to people without their consent, especially where the vaccines could be more harmful than the vanishingly small chance of them being damaged by the virus, and anyone under 16 cannot give consent, just like they cannot vote.
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The JVCI says that more than 85 per cent of children are now believed to have natural immunity, how can they square that with the advice to vaccinate them all, as the JVCI also admit that natural immunity from covid is longer lasting than a vaccine.
The take-up of vaccines in 12 to 15 year old children has so far been about 20%, seem that either the kids or their parents are very sensible in assessing the risk / benefit of the jabs....
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The JVCI says that more than 85 per cent of children are now believed to have natural immunity, how can they square that with the advice to vaccinate them all, as the JVCI also admit that natural immunity from covid is longer lasting than a vaccine.
Yet again no source document cited so these statements cannot be reviewed for accuracy. When and where did JVCI (sic) say this, and in what context? There is actually quite a lot of work reported from reputable authorities about natural immunity, for example:
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/covid-natural-immunity-what-you-need-to-know
https://www.immunology.org/coronavirus/connect-coronavirus-public-engagement-resources/covid-immunity-infection-vaccine
Summary from the second source: “It's likely that for most people vaccination against COVID-19 will induce more effective and longer lasting immunity than that induced by natural infection with the virus. Even if you've had COVID-19, you're recommended to get the vaccine because it will boost whatever immunity you have from natural infection.”
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Today's Indie -Sage briefing.
Independent SAGE discusses the importance of the Public Inquiry into Covid-19, led by Professor Gabriel Scally, and with special guests Hannah Brady, Elkan Abrahamson, Dr Tony O’Sullivan and Pete Weatherby QC. Professor Christina Pagel gives the latest figures.
https://www.independentsage.org/weekly-briefing-18th-february-2022/
Intro 0-4m
Cases hospitalisations and deaths etc 4m - 13m
Vaccination for 5-11 yo. 13m
Government's response to epidemic and People's Covid Inquiry 14min -47 m
Questions 47m - end
Interesting session.
See also
https://www.independentsage.org/ending-of-free-tests-statement/
Edit added screenshots
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Open Letter from UK Scientists and Medics Re: Early End to England’s Isolation Rules.
https://openletter.earth/open-letter-from-uk-scientists-and-medics-re-early-end-to-englands-isolation-rules-14a731a1
" Prof Anthony Costello, professor of global health and sustainable development at UCL, told the BBC: "The worry about lifting the legal restrictions is that we are telling not only our population, but the world, that there is really nothing to worry about, that it's all over when it isn't."
Edit Added quote.
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https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/covid-restrictions-lifted-boris-johnson-b2019891.html
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By the look of the media for last week or two I think that SAGE and all the 'expert academics' in UK have moved on to the situation in Ukraine - Chicken Licken could not have come up with worse forecasts. I am happy to say I just looked out of the window and the sky was in its normal place.... although with all the grey clouds it does look a little lower today.
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By the look of the media for last week or two I think that SAGE and all the 'expert academics' in UK have moved on to the situation in Ukraine - Chicken Licken could not have come up with worse forecasts. I am happy to say I just looked out of the window and the sky was in its normal place.... although with all the grey clouds it does look a little lower today.
Boris Johnson will need to pick a different team of experts to ignore on the Ukraine.
Meanwhile the BMA and the Health Foundation were not impressed by his "Living with Covid" plans.
https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/uk_today_homepage/19941628.british-medical-association-slams-boris-johnsons-decision-end-covid-restrictions/
https://www.politics.co.uk/opinion-former/press-release/2022/02/22/living-with-covid-strategy-fails-to-make-provisions-for-the-unequal-impact-of-the-virus/
Edit added link to Health Foundation
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Off topic, but this is what Biden said
"Ukraine? Of course we must defend Ukraine! It has essential gold reserves which could make us all incredibly wealthy, even Hunter. Why, my grandpa's grandpop panned gold there for twenty years, living in a tent with a rabbit and a mule that could speak Eskimo. No, wait - that ain't Ukraine, that's Yukon. Is that in Canada or Alaska? The difference is which eye they wear the eyepatch on. Left is Canadian. My God! Are the Russians invading Yukon? Or is it just Trudeau in fancy dress again? Get me Elvis on the lobster phone, and saddle up my best mule! It's war on Canada!"
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Interesting study from John Hopkins University in USA, their large study found that lockdowns 'had a minute' effect on covid deaths, bit of a read - 62 pages ( attached PDF ).
Just as an aside, this report was discussed on the BBC Radio4 programme "More or less" this morning (doesn't appear to be on listen-again yet).
I had looked briefly at the link given above, but didn't spend much time on it. I had picked up on a couple of issues but because I hadn't studied it carefully I thought it best not to comment.
The items mentioned were that it wasn't "by" the John Hopkins Uni but by 3 economists, one of whom worked "at" the JHU. The study was a "meta-analysis", which as we all of course know (?!) means it was an assessment of the results of other studies, but not a study of the original data, and thus was essentially not critical of any previous analysis made. They excluded many of the studies due to them being carried out by epidemiologists using modelling of epidemics which the authors did not consider to be compatible with their methods. They put a high weighting onto a report from Pretoria which was made by a group of economists rather than epidemiologists. It was not at all clear whether they had included allowance for the delay between infection and eventual deaths and how that delay period related to imposition of any precautionary measures. They also apparently considered "lockdown" measures as any non-medical intervention, which could be anything from wearing masks to full isolation, and thus probably not necessarily quite what we would normally consider "lockdown".
I'm sure the meta-analysis is perfectly reasonable taken in context of the methodology, purpose, assumptions, terms and conditions, but just from a brief scan through it appeared to me that it should not be paraphrased nor presented as anything other than what it was, and certainly not a definitive determination of the effectiveness (however that is defined) of preventive measures applied during the pandemic if for no other reason than it excluded so many of the originally listed studies.
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Just as an aside, this report was discussed on the BBC Radio4 programme "More or less" this morning (doesn't appear to be on listen-again yet).
It seems to be there now https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0014pc3
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Thanks for that. The relevant section is from 8min to 15min.
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Friday's Indie-Sage update.
Main subject this week was the effects of the epidemic on children.
Effects on education, slow recognition of transmission in children and benefits of vaccination.
Intro 0-2m30s
Latest numbers 2m30s-23m30s
Schools 23m30s -32m30s Large class sizes small spaces lack of ventilation
Comparison with Europe (Esp Sweden and Germany) 32m30s -39m
Vaccination in 5-11yo 39m30s
Questions 50m - end
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Numbers of infections, hospitalisations and deaths have been steadily rising in Scotland again.
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Indie-Sage update.
Main topic this week is the effect of inequality with regard to covid.
0-3m Introduction.
3m -13m Statistics. Increase in cases in Scotland now due to adults rather than children. Increasing long covid
BA.2 variant becoming more prevalent.
13m-43m Main discussion on inequality.
43m -end Questions.
Other slides available from this link (pdf.)
https://www.independentsage.org/weekly-briefing-4th-march-2022/
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Numbers of infections, hospitalisations and deaths have been steadily rising in Scotland again.
Numbers still rising
New Cases In Hospital Deaths
Thursday 17/2 7144 944 22
Thursday 24/2 7195 1041 16
Thursday 3/3 9491 1272 36
Thursday 10/3 14387 1636 41
https://www.scotsman.com/health/more-people-in-hospital-with-covid-than-at-peak-of-omicron-wave-3606096
Increase also across UK
Increasing infections amongst older age groups.
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/clinical-areas/respiratory/rise-in-covid-infections-among-over-55s-concerning-say-experts/
Edit added Scotsman link
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Latest Indie-Sage briefing.
Main theme. Lessons to be learned for the future.
0-2min Intro
2- 22min Latest numbers.
Numbers of hospitilisations increasing
BA.2 variant
Vaccination almost zero and waning effectiveness.
Ventilation.
Effects on children
22-32min Local government. Lessons for the future.
32-41min Devolved governments and situation in Europe
41min-- end Questions
Edit to edit removed reference to guardian article to use it as a response to Culzean's post
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Clip from an article on latest BA.2 variant.
'So what's going on? Firstly, both the BA.1 and BA.2 variants do not have an intrinsically much higher growth rate than any previous variant. Instead, they have spread globally for two main reasons. First, both can infect people who were protected from earlier viral strains by vaccines and/or previous infection because their spike proteins (the region which neutralising antibodies, which protects people from infection by the virus, bind to) are drastically different to any previous Covid strain.
This means that in terms of protection against infection, even populations with high rates of vaccination or prior infection were essentially encountering it as an almost novel virus.
The second reason behind the explosive growth of Omicron is that its incubation time (the time interval between one infection and the next) is much shorter than for any previous Covid lineage. BA.2 has an even shorter incubation time than BA.1.
Shorter incubation can lead to explosive growth in daily case numbers over a short period of time even if each infected person passes on the virus to a similar number of other hosts.
Despite the ability of BA.1 and BA.2 to readily infect and re-infect people, vaccines and prior infections still protect from severe disease and death, thanks to T-cells that cannot be bypassed by the virus as they target hundreds of different sites across the viral genome.
Moreover, contrary to antibodies which are largely identical in different people, each person mounts a unique T-cell response that targets different sites in the viral genome. As such, a virus simply cannot evolve to escape T-cell recognition at the level of the host population.'
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Omicron is unlikely to be the last variant.
On a similar theme to the Indie Sage report above.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/public-health-measures-are-key-to-curbing-covid-in-uk-say-scientists
Edit changed "Omicron may not be the last variant." to " is unlikely to be"
We need to be prepared to respond more quickly and on a more local level as discussed in Indy-Sage briefing.
Nobody wants another lockdown.
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My grandson is currently infected. His previous infection was in November (both confirmed by PCR tests). So it looks like anyone is fair game now.
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My grandson is currently infected. His previous infection was in November (both confirmed by PCR tests). So it looks like anyone is fair game now.
I'm wondering when I'll next get infected and want it to be at a convenient time so it boosts my immune system before the holiday season. I had what was probably Delta in October and a booster jab on 1st December. They were sufficient to stop me getting infected in late January when my wife was infectious about 2 months after her booster but I'm assuming that any protection I currently have is diminishing. The official line is that the current vaccine only protects against serious illness.
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Numbers of infections, hospitalisations and deaths have been steadily rising in Scotland again.
Numbers still rising
New Cases In Hospital Deaths
Thursday 17/2 7144 944 22
Thursday 24/2 7195 1041 16
Thursday 3/3 9491 1272 36
Thursday 10/3 14387 1636 41
https://www.scotsman.com/health/more-people-in-hospital-with-covid-than-at-peak-of-omicron-wave-3606096
Increase also across UK
Increasing infections amongst older age groups.
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/clinical-areas/respiratory/rise-in-covid-infections-among-over-55s-concerning-say-experts/
Edit added Scotsman link
New Cases In Hospital Deaths
Thursday 17/3 9721 * 2038 28*
Thursday 24/3 13564 2322 50
* Computer glitch
Also happening in England
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-patients-hospitals-increase-b2043010.html
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London R value a couple of weeks ago was 0.7 to 0.9
Now 1.1 to 1.4
Hardly surprising now 'things' are almost back to normal. Very few wearing masks and close contact gatherings, etc.
I wonder why some vaccines protect you for life whilst these Covid vaccines needs topping up like nothing before
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London R value a couple of weeks ago was 0.7 to 0.9
Now 1.1 to 1.4
Hardly surprising now 'things' are almost back to normal. Very few wearing masks and close contact gatherings, etc.
I wonder why some vaccines protect you for life whilst these Covid vaccines needs topping up like nothing before
Some virus do not mutate, so the vaccine for smallpox, measles etc will protect for life. Problem with MRNA vaccines is that they only carry the spike protein, not the whole virus and it is the spike protein that changes the most, then the very specific antibodies produced by MRNA ( as opposed to wider T cell immunity from the whole virus by normal vaccines ) cannot recognise the new virus ... so boosters needed 4 or 5 times a year, great news if you are a shareholder... I only had the original AZ vaccine in Feb and April 2021, had covid twice. Omicron just after new year 2022 and about a month ago BA.2 variant, neither worse than a common cold...
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I had the Pfizer vaccine and I have never caught Covid.
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I had the Pfizer vaccine and I have never caught Covid.
Where were you hiding ? The vaccines protect from serous illness, they do not really stop you catching Covid. We were out and about over Christmas and New Year partying, and have not worn a mask since end of January...
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I had the Pfizer vaccine and I have never caught Covid.
+1 and my wife +2
My wife is immune deficient due to cancer treatment. I deplore all the selfish people who fail to wear masks and hence remove an element of protection for others. They should be ashamed of themselves.
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My wife and I have just tested positive for the first time. We do not have symptoms worse than a normal heavy cold. I do wonder if the lack of mask wearing is responsible.
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You really wonder if...? Really?
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Where were you hiding ?
I didn't do any hiding. Just followed the rules. I always wear a mask when shopping (a legal requirement in Scotland) and have no need to use public transport. My wife was shielding so I have been extra careful as to who I met and where.
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Same here, I always wear a FFP2 mask in shops and I only use public transport in the quiet times and then very rarely.
I've also never caught it.
My local Tesco is very quiet at 08:00, there are more 'Internet shoppers' than customers.
Don't get me started on the selfish Internet shoppers though with their large green trolleys.
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I still wear a mask in shops, maybe questionable effectiveness but it's not going to make anything worse so might as well. I consider the main thing is to remember to avoid touching your face with your hands while in there, and use sanitiser on the trolley handle when you pick it up, and use hand sanitizer as soon as you are out.
I got flu 3 or 4 yrs ago, and a friend said it would have been from the supermarket. Initially I dismissed that theory, but subsequently and especially with the Covid evidence I think this is probably one of the most likely transmission methods of such infections, so from now on I'll do the sanitising routine. It surely isn't a coincidence that seasonal flu essentially disappeared while the main Covid precautions were in force.
Of course everyone is (now) free to do as they wish.
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Strange thing is that countries that locked down the hardest, and kept the restrictions the longest are now suffering more from Covid.... It was also said that >85% of schoolkids in UK had antibodies, but they were still talking about giving 5 to 16 year olds 'boosters' FFS... the 'vaccines' are not risk free by any means. I was impressed by the 17 to 25 year olds reaction to being offered vaccines though, the take up was less than 20%.... people that age ignoring government propaganda gives me hope for the future of UK ......
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It's not a matter of ignoring "government propaganda". In the younger population there never has been a significant risk of death or severe illness and at that age, unfortunately, you are not overly concerned about protecting other people but more about enjoying life. That is not a criticism as no doubt we were all like it at that age.
It has been proven that face covering, social distancing and sanitising reduces the chance of transmitting infection and as can now be seen, people will generally not do these things unless they are mandated.
I have spent several months now taking my wife to hospital for various appointments and even there some people have to be told to put on masks. And a great number of people do not make use of the hand sanitizers.
I'm not saying that sticking by the government guidelines will eradicate Covid, but in my opinion it takes very little effort and does a lot of good (certainly no harm). Of course there are always those who adopt the "I know best and you're not telling me what to do" attitude.
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Strange thing is that countries that locked down the hardest, and kept the restrictions the longest are now suffering more from Covid....
Surely it was better at the start of the pandemic, when little was known about the virus to lockdown quickly.
Now that we have vaccines and anti-virals and a better understandig of treatments and we know that the present dominant variant is not as deadly as previous mutations, it is not so important to have such strict measures in place
It was also said that >85% of schoolkids in UK had antibodies, but they were still talking about giving 5 to 16 year olds 'boosters' FFS... the 'vaccines' are not risk free by any means.
School kids can pass on the disease to older people with less efficient immune systems.
Even if the disease is not life threatening it will disrupt education - more so if teachers are infected.
The long term effects of Covid on youngsters are not yet fully understood. Infections could be laying down the basis of health problems later in life. They may well be more serious than the low risks of vaccination.
I was impressed by the 17 to 25 year olds reaction to being offered vaccines though, the take up was less than 20%..
I think it was more due to apathy and a sense of not being in any immediate danger than a conscious decision.
Well done the considerate 20%.
"Learning to live with covid " is not just a matter of ignoring it and carrying on as if it doesn't exist.
We still have to be aware of the danger to vulnerable people and the implications of our actions.
Governments, health services and local health authorities have to be prepared for future outbreaks of possibly more dangerous variants.
Here is the latest consultation document issued by Indie-Sage (pdf)
https://www.independentsage.org/what-should-learning-to-live-with-covid-really-mean-in-2022/
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Strange thing is that countries that locked down the hardest, and kept the restrictions the longest are now suffering more from Covid.
More accurately it's the areas where covid didn't spread previously, for whatever reason, are now the areas with higher caseloads due to lack of protection provided by previous infection and/or vaccination. The UK map https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases shows that the north of Scotland is now badly afflicted.
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Latest Indy-Sage briefing.
Main topic "Learning to live with Covid" - Mistakes made, lessons learned and unlearned. Planning for the future.
Including references to discussion document in previous post.
All the slides are published earlier this week.
Video and slides can be accessed from here.
https://www.independentsage.org/weekly-briefing-25th-march-2022/
0-5min Introduction
5-17min Longer term view
17-20min "Living with Covid" paper intro
20-24 min Public Policy
24-30min NHS particularly GPs
30-35min Inequality
35-40min Mutations and variants
40-46min Advisory structures These last two sections should be of particular interest to Culzean.
46- 51min Interpretation of data
51-end Questions . The answer to the first question should be of interest
to John Ratsey re his recent post on
gaining immunity by infection
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Latest Indie-Sage briefing.
Main topic - creating safe workplaces.
Scotland's infections may have peaked although there have been difficulties with the data processing in the last few days. Hospitalisations and deaths are still increasing.
Infections are now rising in England and Wales.
Briefing and slides available from this page.
https://www.independentsage.org/weekly-briefing-1st-april-2022/
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New Zealand and their ( failed ) draconian zero covid policy now looks like St Jacinda was the 'King Canute of Covid'... they are seeing a massive surge in cases and a lot of deaths in last few weeks... 700,000 cases in a country of less than 5 million.. New Zealand is one of the most vaccinated countries on the planet.
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New Zealand and their ( failed ) draconian zero covid policy now looks like St Jacinda was the 'King Canute of Covid'... they are seeing a massive surge in cases and a lot of deaths in last few weeks... 700,000 cases in a country of less than 5 million.. New Zealand is one of the most vaccinated countries on the planet.
Deaths/Million population
New Zealand 66
UK 2417
Total cases/Million population
New Zealand 136817
UK 309698
Source Worldometer 2/4/2022
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Better to be having the cases now when the majority of the population is vaccinated than earlier in the pandemic when there was little vaccination.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths?country=GBR~NZL
Edit Added world in data graph
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New Zealand and their ( failed ) draconian zero covid policy now looks like St Jacinda was the 'King Canute of Covid'... they are seeing a massive surge in cases and a lot of deaths in last few weeks... 700,000 cases in a country of less than 5 million.. New Zealand is one of the most vaccinated countries on the planet.
Deaths/Million population
New Zealand 66
UK 2417
Total cases/Million population
New Zealand 136817
UK 309698
Source Worldometer 2/4/2022
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Better to be having the cases now when the majority of the population is vaccinated than earlier in the pandemic when there was little vaccination.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths
Edit Added world in data graph
Don't confuse us with FACTS. :'(
Until 2 months ago, we had seen no (Zero) Covid cases in nearly two years amongst people who are close acquaintances. In the past month we have seen:
Our neighbours across the road - late 70s, husband in bed at home for three days.Wife caught from him.
A pair in their 80s who I used to see regularly when I shopped in Aldi. Last time I saw them there,they were no longer wearlng masks -I was - and they tested positive next week.
Two members of our beekeeping club whom I see weekly.Both work with children.
And five other friends of my wife.
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Don't confuse us with FACTS. :'(
Until 2 months ago, we had seen no (Zero) Covid cases in nearly two years amongst people who are close acquaintances. In the past month we have seen:
Our neighbours across the road - late 70s, husband in bed at home for three days.Wife caught from him.
A pair in their 80s who I used to see regularly when I shopped in Aldi. Last time I saw them there,they were no longer wearlng masks -I was - and they tested positive next week.
Two members of our beekeeping club whom I see weekly.Both work with children.
And five other friends of my wife.
Yep, there's a lot more of it about here too.
The government want us to believe it's all over (removal of restrictions and free testing) and won't do anything until after there's an emergency situation in hospitals, schools, shops or whatever.
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I had the Pfizer vaccine and I have never caught Covid.
Same here. Vaccinated back in May and July with the booster in Decemeber.
At work we are still required to wear masks when not sitting at our desks or eating or drinking. Two metre social distance unless unavoidable and one person per table in the canteen.
One person in my office has been off for a good two weeks or so. She was shielding from the second week in March 2020 until Novemeber that year.
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XE (XD & XF)
https://medriva.com/what-is-the-omicron-xe-variant-and-why-are-scientists-concerned-about-their-rapid-transmission-rates-fueling-the-uk/#gs.vplfzu
See conclusion.
"Once again, the UK is experiencing another rapid rise of infections, with many cases of Omicron being detected each and every day. Combine it with laxity in personal protection and complete relaxation of COVID-19 protocols and you have a ticking time bomb on your hands. The government seems to have lost its way regarding Omicron outbreaks as it grapples with other economic issues of concern, relaxing Covid norms and trying to sleep its way through the issue."
"We all need direction from our governments, and the government seems to have lost its way as it tussles with one issue after another. Since all COVID-19 precautionary measures are now removed, if you are living in the UK, you’ve got to think on your own and not let your guard down. You should continue to follow the COVID guidelines diligently with responsibility."
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Wise words as usual from Devi Sridhar
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/12/herd-immunity-covid-reinfection-virus-world
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01787-2.epdf?sharing_token=5n6f_QHeuzpVekzkK2_8TdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OL2wi0qx49kTpxiYdG7fZxoYVzZuErP5a6wWsUlNyW_oO_Vij4IM1oypA0y0BZx
Edit Added Nature link
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Oh bu**er
Wonder if I've got this latest variant
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Hope you're over it soon.
My wife and I caught Covid for the first time the end of May this year following my wife travelling to and attending a stadium concert. I was fortunate to have mostly milder symptoms compared to the usual yearly colds I caught pre the lock down.
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My timeline has been odd
Couldn't sleep Thu night, just insomnia but felt OK
Then Fri/Sat couldn't get out of bed, like Flu, coughing and sneezing, blocked nose the full monty, took test and the COVID line was very feint so not that contagious according to the blurb
Sun a bit rough, just one blocked nostril, but no energy
Mon got energy back but still mild cough, sneezing. Going through hankies like I own the shop
This morning felt a lot better so took another test to see if I was clear and the COVID line appeared solid red as soon as the liquid got to it, the previous feint line took the full half hour before I could spot it.
So I'm now giving out a full viral load
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I had Covid earlier in the year and I fully believe if I had not had my full gamut of shots I would not be here now. I have an appointment for my next booster before the end of the month.
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...Tested +ve last Thursday morning and only returned to work today. Just as unpleasant as in August 2021.
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This morning felt a lot better so took another test to see if I was clear and the COVID line appeared solid red as soon as the liquid got to it, the previous feint line took the full half hour before I could spot it.
In my past experience the lateral flow tests confirm that you've had covid after you've almost got over it.
I read or heard about a month ago that the experts reckoned that at any time about one million people in UK had covid but most weren't aware of it. The decision to bring forward the autumn jabs has been triggered by a new variant. I also wonder if the cooler and wet weather in July and August will have helped the virus spread as more people will have been inside.
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I feel almost fully recovered but I still got a solid red line Thu
Next test Monday I reckon