Author Topic: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one  (Read 5709 times)


culzean

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2021, 12:50:45 PM »
So even with Delta if you are <40 years old and unvaccinated your chances are 0.1%,  if vaccinated 0.01 % both very low and on a par with annual seasonal influenza..  So nothing to see here, please move along-  :)

If >40 and vaccinated -  ie vast majority of UK population the AZ vaccine is proving very effective ( despite the smear campaign against it by makers of Pfizer, Moderna etc because it is too cheap and affecting their profits LOL ). So nothing much to lose sleep over. 

A lot of journalists ( and government scientists ) are lazy and keep on about 'infections' doubling, quadrupling, going up sharply or whatever,  when the real problem is serious illness and death,  which is not even vaguely following infections.  We need less mindless sensationalism and more 'proper' journalism,  which is getting harder and harder to find ( boring facts do not sell newspapers ).
« Last Edit: August 14, 2021, 12:59:07 PM by culzean »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

JimSh

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2021, 07:44:40 PM »


A lot of journalists ( and government scientists ) are lazy and keep on about 'infections' doubling, quadrupling, going up sharply or whatever,  when the real problem is serious illness and death,  which is not even vaguely following infections.  We need less mindless sensationalism and more 'proper' journalism,  which is getting harder and harder to find ( boring facts do not sell newspapers ).
Pueyo has put in a lot of work in analysing data from all round the world and circulating his findings in an understandable form. He certainly does not work for the US government. Who knows how many thousands  of lives would have been saved if governments had paid heed to his analyses?  But that's water under the bridge now.
https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
I found this latest update informative and hope that more people will read it fully and not just jump to the conclusions  which fit their preconceived ideas.

https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/covid-faq-summer-2021-part-1?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxNTgzNTEwNywicG9zdF9pZCI6Mzk4NTA1ODEsIl8iOiIraVNSOCIsImlhdCI6MTYyODk0MDAyMSwiZXhwIjoxNjI4OTQzNjIxLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMzQ3NTMzIiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.yYTh6vJuZVWZj4ANwVwQJ3wvwq90YgRhSh_bGA3Shzk

https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/delta-variant-everything-you-need

Edit Added link to latest updates again
« Last Edit: August 14, 2021, 10:15:11 PM by JimSh »

JimSh

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2021, 03:20:34 PM »
Latest upate from Tomas Pueyo This time on Long Covid.
As he says in his introduction, Covid hasn't been around long enough for the long term effects to be known.
He draws analogies with Chronic Fatigue system.

https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/long-covid-chronic-fatigue-syndrome

[links removed by Admin]
« Last Edit: October 24, 2021, 11:38:07 AM by RichardA »

JimSh

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2021, 04:33:54 PM »
So even with Delta if you are <40 years old and unvaccinated your chances are 0.1%,  if vaccinated 0.01 % both very low and on a par with annual seasonal influenza..  So nothing to see here, please move along-  :)

If >40 and vaccinated -  ie vast majority of UK population the AZ vaccine is proving very effective ( despite the smear campaign against it by makers of Pfizer, Moderna etc because it is too cheap and affecting their profits LOL ). So nothing much to lose sleep over. 

A lot of journalists ( and government scientists ) are lazy and keep on about 'infections' doubling, quadrupling, going up sharply or whatever,  when the real problem is serious illness and death,  which is not even vaguely following infections.  We need less mindless sensationalism and more 'proper' journalism,  which is getting harder and harder to find ( boring facts do not sell newspapers ).

Javid to give coronavirus press conference at 5pm.

Positive tests ~ 50,000 per day, hospitalisations now approaching 1000 per day. Deaths above 100 per day. How many is too many?

UK numbers have been increasing rapidly since restrictions lifted.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..2021-10-19&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR~CAN~DEU~ITA~IND

Doctors and scientists urging  caution - masks and social distancing (Not much of an imposition)
Tory MPs unmasked in House of Commons.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-uk-news-live-cases-vaccine-b1941636.html


culzean

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2021, 04:52:13 PM »
So even with Delta if you are <40 years old and unvaccinated your chances are 0.1%,  if vaccinated 0.01 % both very low and on a par with annual seasonal influenza..  So nothing to see here, please move along-  :)

If >40 and vaccinated -  ie vast majority of UK population the AZ vaccine is proving very effective ( despite the smear campaign against it by makers of Pfizer, Moderna etc because it is too cheap and affecting their profits LOL ). So nothing much to lose sleep over. 

A lot of journalists ( and government scientists ) are lazy and keep on about 'infections' doubling, quadrupling, going up sharply or whatever,  when the real problem is serious illness and death,  which is not even vaguely following infections.  We need less mindless sensationalism and more 'proper' journalism,  which is getting harder and harder to find ( boring facts do not sell newspapers ).

Javid to give coronavirus press conference at 5pm.

Positive tests ~ 50,000 per day, hospitalisations now approaching 1000 per day. Deaths above 100 per day. How many is too many?

UK numbers have been increasing rapidly since restrictions lifted.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..2021-10-19&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR~CAN~DEU~ITA~IND

Doctors and scientists urging  caution - masks and social distancing (Not much of an imposition)
Tory MPs unmasked in House of Commons.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-uk-news-live-cases-vaccine-b1941636.html

Covid patients occupying only 5% of UK hospital beds at the moment.  most cases now are  amongst younger people <20 years old, who may get infected or test positive but rarely need hospital care.   I hate all this scaremongering from the media, puts me in mind of the constant bombardment and ratcheting up of scenarios on climate change - apparently driver shortage in many countries is a consequence of climate change now.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2021, 06:07:54 PM by culzean »
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

Kremmen

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2021, 05:04:23 PM »
I agree

They are pushing this 40k+ daily infections headline above the low hospitalisation and death rate.

Of these daily 40k, are they unique infections or are they the same people testing regularly.

Plus, they asked today of the deaths - are these people who have died from Covid or died with Covid. No answer yet.
Let's be careful out there !

madasafish

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2021, 06:54:56 PM »
Since deaths can lag infection reporting by 28 days and the rise in infections has occurred in the last 2 weeks, it is very brave  to comment on death rates vs current levels of infection -since the two are related only in the future death rates.  :o :o 8)

JimSh

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2021, 09:02:04 PM »
I agree

They are pushing this 40k+ daily infections headline above the low hospitalisation and death rate.

Of these daily 40k, are they unique infections or are they the same people testing regularly.

Plus, they asked today of the deaths - are these people who have died from Covid or died with Covid. No answer yet.

Hospital staff are  overstretched and exhausted.
https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/nhs-delivery-and-workforce/pressures/pressure-points-in-the-nhs

This is from 9th October
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/oct/09/nursing-crisis-sweeps-wards-as-nhs-battles-to-find-recruits

and since then the number of infections, hospital admissions and deaths have all risen by more than 10% and it isn't even winter yet.

See Channel 4 News tonight
https://www.channel4.com/programmes/channel-4-news

Edit
Correction Well over 10%
According to today's update.
Positive tests Up 17%  Hospital admissions up 11% Deaths up 21% in last 7 days
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
« Last Edit: October 20, 2021, 10:20:51 PM by JimSh »

JimSh

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2021, 08:36:35 AM »
Blue envelope through the door.
Booster for me on last day of month.

culzean

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2021, 10:52:32 AM »
Since deaths can lag infection reporting by 28 days and the rise in infections has occurred in the last 2 weeks, it is very brave  to comment on death rates vs current levels of infection -since the two are related only in the future death rates.  :o :o 8)

Nobody knows how many 'future' deaths will be caused by the cancellation of pretty much every other NHS service but Covid treatment for last 18 months+, it could well dwarf the  'suspected' Covid deaths ( 'with Covid' vs 'from Covid' )  counted in UK by  NHS.  Vast majority of covid deaths so far happened in people over 60 with 2 OR MORE existing co-morbidities ( serious chronic health conditions  that could kill them at any time anyway ).   The average covid death in UK is still >80 years old, with 75% in people over 80 and 90% in people over 60. 
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

guest4871

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2021, 12:01:38 PM »
When is someone going to call out the unspoken Scam on the NHS that GP practices are operating: collecting from the NHS the per capita fee for each person registered for treatment with the privately owned GP practice, not treating the patient (e.g. with three week appointment delays, etc) and  the patient then going  to a NHS hospital "A&E" for treatment? And collecting the per capita fee even when there is no GP because the practice has a "vacancy"! Aided and abetted by the BMA. The NHS (we) pay twice.

GP practices contracted to supply NHS services should invoice the NHS for each NHS consultation just as they invoice individuals, or their insurer, for private patients. Waiting lists would suddenly plummet!

richardfrost

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2021, 12:18:13 PM »
GP practices contracted to supply NHS services should invoice the NHS for each NHS consultation just as they invoice individuals, or their insurer, for private patients. Waiting lists would suddenly plummet!

I have to say, I can find no reason to disagree with this proposal. Equally, the NHS could then hold the GP Practice to account for the quality of their referrals. Don't pretend to run it like a business. Actually run it like a business.

Further, I would give everyone a number of 'free' GP consultations. If you miss your appointment, you lose the pass too. If you make the appointment, you get another pass. If you have no passes, you have to pay or face a long wait. Missed appointments would suddenly plummet.

embee

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2021, 12:39:00 PM »
Someone on a radio prog recently said that despite their last few consultations with their GP being on video calls, their records showed that they had been "in person". Was this an admin error or could this possibly be to do with the league table ratings for "in person" consultations and the name & shame proposals by the govt for failing practices?

culzean

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Re: Latest update on Delta variant from Tomas Pueyo FAQ part one
« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2021, 12:54:05 PM »
Someone on a radio prog recently said that despite their last few consultations with their GP being on video calls, their records showed that they had been "in person". Was this an admin error or could this possibly be to do with the league table ratings for "in person" consultations and the name & shame proposals by the govt for failing practices?

More to do with massaging the figures I think.  When I went in to collect a neighbours prescriptions a short time ago our local pharmacist said 'all the GP doctors are hiding'....  The lower access to GP's has gone on for years, with their appointments 'in two weeks time',  seems to date from when they were given a big pay rise and turned into accountants and having a budget as primary care commissioning practices or something.  The few times I have been to out GP they normally send you to hospital anyway  for blood test or some minor test, so many people are just cutting the middleman ( GP ) out and going straight to A&E anyway, our local hospital used to have a quick access drop-in centre ( not A&E ),  but I think it got too popular so they scrapped it.
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

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