Author Topic: Weather forecasting  (Read 1729 times)

Jocko

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Weather forecasting
« on: December 22, 2017, 10:08:19 AM »
I read a good article the other day where the Met Office was saying that any weather forecast for more than 5 days ahead is not to be trusted. Well, this morning I was watching the same Met Office's forecast for the day ahead, courtesy of the BBC, which said we were to have a mild cloudy day. Great I thought, that is the kind of winter I like.
I then head out at 06:20, to take the better half to work, and it is hard frost! So much for the accuracy of their forecast. At least this time the misinformation was not the fault of the BBC!

guest4871

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Re: Weather forecasting
« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2017, 10:25:14 AM »
Pretty normal experience south of the Border!

Kenneve

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Re: Weather forecasting
« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2017, 10:54:01 AM »
Not sure whether it's the fault of the Met office or the BBC, but I find that the BBC always tends to overstate  problem conditions.
EG, I guess that only around 5% of the population in the Midlands was really affected by the recent snowfalls, but the way the BBC described it, you would think that the winters of 1947 and 1963 had returned. :o

culzean

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Re: Weather forecasting
« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2017, 11:16:49 AM »
I look at met office on computer mostly,  the BBC and other broadcasters do tend to overstate severity of the weather we are going to get (just as though they are dealing with children who have to be impressed with the possible dangers more thoroughly than adults LOL) - 'auntie BBC' is well named... (should be nanny though).

Any sensible person had long ago worked out that trying to forecast weather more than a few days in advance is pointless even with the most sophisticated computers. The 'Barbecue summer' forecast fiasco many years ago made that obvious, and left forecasters with a red faces.   On a radio program a couple of years ago one 'conventional forecaster' (using natural clues rather than satellites etc.) on being asked about the met offices new £90M 'super computer' remarked - "yes its a great piece of kit and will certainly mean that they can get the wrong answer a lot more quickly". .
Some people will only consider you an expert if they agree with your point of view or advice,  when you give them advice they don't like they consider you an idiot

John A

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Re: Weather forecasting
« Reply #4 on: December 22, 2017, 11:46:31 AM »
Not sure whether it's the fault of the Met office or the BBC, but I find that the BBC always tends to overstate  problem conditions.
EG, I guess that only around 5% of the population in the Midlands was really affected by the recent snowfalls, but the way the BBC described it, you would think that the winters of 1947 and 1963 had returned. :o

I'd guess it's the Michael Fish effect, with a helping of liability lawyers thrown in.

olduser1

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Re: Weather forecasting
« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2017, 11:51:38 AM »
I used to work with the Met Office in the 1970's , their general view of weather being the UK is a tiny island off western Europe heavily influenced by the prevailing westerly winds, as regards forcasts [based upon weather station reports]dont trust anything beyond 3 days. As regards a 'super computer' I can only imagine the sales propaganda before soemone signed on the contract.

Living by the coast as we do your better off listening to the Shipping forcast & know you tide times.

Jocko

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Re: Weather forecasting
« Reply #6 on: December 22, 2017, 12:30:51 PM »
I like to see the synoptic chart. From that, and experience of my local area, I have a fair idea of what is on the way.
Talking of the shipping forecast, I was a Radio Officer in the merchant navy, many a long year ago. I copied many a forecast. I was on a coaster for a spell, shunting back and forward from Liverpool to Belfast. I would copy the evening shipping forecast, then take it up to the bridge. Now I had come from a brightly lit radio cabin, and had to go onto a bridge lit only with night vision lamps. To my eyes it was pitch black! I would open the door and say I had the forecast and was always told, "Bring it here, Sparks". I had to stumble about in the dark, falling over the engine room telegraph, and making a proper fool of myself. I'm sure I was their entertainment for the evening!!

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